ACUS11 KWNS 252049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252048
TXZ000-NMZ000-252315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern New Mexico into far
west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252048Z - 252315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado may occur this afternoon into early evening. Watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Compared to locations farther north in NM, parts of far
west TX have experienced stronger heating in the presence of greater
low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to
low 60s). Convective initiation is underway across the higher
terrain of far west TX/southeast NM. A combination of moderate
instability and deep-layer shear should prove sufficient for
thunderstorm organization, including the potential for a supercell
or two capable of producing isolated severe hail/wind. However,
better forcing for ascent associated with an ejecting mid-level
shortwave trough over the Four Corners to the central Rockies will
likely tend to remain displaced to the north of this region.
Therefore, current expectations are for strong to severe
thunderstorm coverage to remain fairly limited across southeast
NM/far west TX.

Across east-central NM, a small line segment has recently
strengthened per radar/satellite imagery. This convection should
track northeastward into parts of the western TX Panhandle over the
next couple of hours. Currently, widespread cloudiness is hindering boundary-layer destabilization downstream of this activity. But, low
60s surface temperatures/dewpoints are attempting to stream
northward along/near an almost stationary front from far
east-central NM into adjacent areas of the western TX Panhandle. The
latest VWP from KFDX shows sufficient low-level shear to support
some risk for a brief tornado, assuming convection can become/remain
surface based. Isolated severe gusts could also occur.

For both regions, the overall severe risk is currently expected to
remain fairly isolated through the afternoon/early evening, and
watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8xzRo1zwrr8xhNk4tBAWZ8JdTD1jHY__r-wM4ZTj6p7_0lLKDX5Ia0opAiDA8oib2uEDpMpAX71d5rW0nTdQSsDhug4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31870703 32720672 33120655 33310525 33660468 34610457
35210425 35640365 35740291 35580247 35160236 34410258
33280329 31680316 31190329 30670402 30590487 30840547
31310603 31650646 31870703

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
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