ACUS11 KWNS 251854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251854
NMZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Areas affected...Portions of northern/central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251854Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated/marginally severe hail and gusty winds may occur
with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Persistent cloudiness through much of the morning has
hindered diurnal heating/destabilization, but recent clearing has
occurred across parts of northern/central NM. As surface
temperatures continue to warm into the 60s and large-scale ascent
attendant to an ejecting mid/upper-level trough overspreads this
region, convection is forecast to gradually increase in coverage as
weak boundary-layer instability develops. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over much of NM this
afternoon, and related 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will support
updraft organization. However, generally weak instability (less than
1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and modest mid-level lapse rates (especially
around/above 500 mb) are expected to limit the overall severe risk. Isolated/marginally severe hail should be the main threat with any
cells that develop and track northeastward over the next several
hours. Some risk for locally gusty winds may also exist where
low-level lapse rates can become steepened with daytime heating.
Given the isolated severe risk forecast, watch issuance is not
expected at this time.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5biSn0TaKRbXfRuENAWKqoM-4CkRV5hwxH646U6iXOAKzpt2vLLnlx9fwxR1c5oJtjQqyfiGZplVW-PGzFOpHMN5T3k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33760672 34570712 35170744 35650836 36220828 36280759
36020619 35430516 34700471 33650474 33360526 33500638
33760672

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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