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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jan 3 08:31:08 2022

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ACUS03 KWNS 030831
SWODY3
SPC AC 030829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur over far eastern North Carolina on
Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected across the
continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will build across
the central U.S. as a cold front advances quickly southward through
the Great Plains. A dry airmass should be in place across most of
the continental United States. The one exception will be in the far
eastern North Carolina where thunderstorms will be possible.
Instability should be too weak for a severe threat. Thunderstorms
are not expected to develop over the remainder of the continental
United States Wednesday or Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/03/2022

$$

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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 4 07:24:15 2022

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ACUS03 KWNS 040724
SWODY3
SPC AC 040723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CST Tue Jan 04 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few weak thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the
northern Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough over the Plains will amplify as it moves toward
the MS Valley during the day on Thursday, approaching the Mid
Atlantic by Friday morning. Preceding this trough, a relatively dry
and stable air mass will be in place over the Southeast, with only
50s F dewpoints ahead of a cold front as it moves across the lower
MS Valley during the day. As a result of low-level warm advection
returning above the cool air mass, only weak, elevated instability
is forecast over land, centered over southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle.

..Jewell.. 01/04/2022

$$

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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jan 5 07:00:18 2022

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ACUS03 KWNS 050700
SWODY3
SPC AC 050659

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous states on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will exist over the Mid Atlantic on Friday,
moving quickly across the Northeast. To the west, temporary zonal
flow will develop over the Plains as a weaker upper trough moves
across the Great Basin.

At the surface, a sprawling high will be centered over the MS
Valley, shifting east through the period and resulting in stable
conditions. Offshore flow will exist over the Gulf of Mexico and
Atlantic, though 60s F dewpoints will approach the TX Coast by early
Saturday in advance of the western trough. A few thunderstorms may
occur over the western Gulf of Mexico Friday night, and are
currently expected to remain offshore. Otherwise, instability is not
expected to favor thunderstorms over the CONUS.

..Jewell.. 01/05/2022

$$

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 19:39:34 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 141939
SWODY3
SPC AC 141938

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible within the Mid-Atlantic and in parts of
the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Embedded within broad northwesterly flow aloft, a mid-level
shortwave trough will promote the development of a surface
trough/modest low within the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. This trough
is expected to extend southward into the Blue Ridge during the
afternoon. Some convection will be possible in the northern
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday morning. Outflow/differential heating from
this activity will combine with the surface trough to promote
scattered storm development during the afternoon. Mid 70s dewpoints
and temperatures reaching the 90s F in some locations will lead to moderate/strong destabilization during the afternoon. Moderate
mid-level flow should support at least modestly organized storms
which could eventually evolve into one or more clusters. Wind damage
will be possible with this activity.

...Central High Plains...
A surface high behind a cold front will keep easterly surface winds
into the higher terrain of the central Rockies. Low-level moisture
may be a touch higher than previous days (perhaps low 60s F) along
with warmer surface temperatures. Effective shear from the Front
Range into southeast Wyoming will be 35-40 kt with long hodographs.
Given the potential for a few supercells during the afternoon,
severe probabilities have been increased in the area with greatest
confidence for large hail/severe winds.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorm development is probable along parts of southward-moving
cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Even with only
weak/modest shear parallel to the front, a southward propagating
cluster or two may develop given the frontal motion. The primary
uncertainty is where this will occur given lack of stronger
convergence along much of the boundary. With steep low-level lapse
rates south of the front along with moderate to strong instability,
damaging winds would be possible with these storms.

..Wendt.. 08/14/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 06:33:02 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 150632
SWODY3
SPC AC 150631

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and
parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

...Northern/Central Plains vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough will pivot eastward across central Canada
on Monday, with weak height falls forecast across parts of the
northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes during the evening.
Modest boundary layer moisture (50s to low 60s F) is forecast ahead
of a southwestward-advancing surface front. As strong heating occurs
through the afternoon and northwesterly flow aloft increases,
moderate destabilization will support widely scattered storm
development ahead of the surface front. Steep midlevel lapse rates
and around 30 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest organized
isolated cells capable of hail will be possible, in additional to
sporadic strong outflow gusts.

...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas...

A very moist airmass will be in place across the southern
Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast ahead of
southeastward-advancing surface cold front on Monday. Areas of
strong heating will support moderate to strong destabilization as
thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the afternoon.
Vertical shear is expected to remain modest, but strong instability
amid steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near 2 inches may
support isolated strong/severe microburst winds and convection
spread southeast with time through early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/15/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 19:32:12 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 151931
SWODY3
SPC AC 151930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and
parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

...Central to Northern Plains...
As an upper low moves into northern Ontario, gradual height falls
will occur into the northern Plains on Monday. Midlevel
northwesterlies of 40-50 kt will be common over the Dakotas and MN,
with 30 kt flow southward toward I-80. A cold front will move across
the Dakotas and into MN, with the front stalling over NE. Dewpoints
in the 60s, strong heating and steep lapse rates will favor areas of
moderate instability ahead of the front, with storms developing late
afternoon. Scattered cells may produce large hail along this
boundary, with an additional threat of damaging winds and possibly
evening MCS over NE.

...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas...
Mid to high level winds of 20-30 kt will remain over the region on
Monday, with relatively warm temperatures aloft. Still, substantial
moisture will remain in place, with areas of moderate instability
developing as the surface trough deepens. An uncapped air mass and
convergence along the wind shift will support scattered afternoon
storms, and some may produce locally damaging gusts as they travel southeastward through the evening.

..Jewell.. 08/15/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 06:44:40 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 160644
SWODY3
SPC AC 160643

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the
central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity...

Height falls are expected across the region during the afternoon
into Tuesday night as an upper trough continues to dig across the
Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow
aloft, and a deepening surface low over KS. Rich boundary layer
moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeast-advancing cold
front. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by
afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates, with
vertically veering wind profiles supporting 40+ kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs are also present in forecast
soundings. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and
severe gusts. With time, sufficient clustering could occur ahead of
the front as a low-level just increases during the evening, and MCS
development may occur.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 07:20:18 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 160719
SWODY3
SPC AC 160719

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
are expected on Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the
central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity...

Height falls are expected across the region during the afternoon
into Tuesday night as an upper trough continues to dig across the
Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow
aloft, and a deepening surface low over KS. Rich boundary layer
moisture will be in place ahead of a south/southeast-advancing cold
front. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by
afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates, with
vertically veering wind profiles supporting 40+ kt effective shear. Elongated/straight hodographs are also present in forecast
soundings. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and
severe gusts. With time, sufficient clustering could occur ahead of
the front as a low-level jet increases during the evening, and MCS
development may occur.

..Leitman.. 08/16/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:16:06 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 161936
SWODY3
SPC AC 161936

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the central
Plains and toward the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...NE/IA/KS/MO...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the region, with
some cooling aloft late in the day. Low pressure will develop over
western KS into southwest NE ahead of a convectively enhanced front
which will drop south across I-80 in NE/IA. The presence of morning thunderstorms may further augment the boundary, and lends
uncertainty to positioning. However, a plume of strong heating will
exist as southwest low-level winds develop during the day near an
east of the surface low, and strong instability may develop across
the warm sector.

The area over NE appears quite favorable for supercells given some
model progs, with deep-layer shear to 50 kt, and increased SRH near
the boundary. Given the expected southeastward storm motions,
supercells could remain on any such boundary, with isolated tornado
potential. Very large hail may also occur with the late
afternoon/early evening cells before likely mergers into an MCS,
which may produce damaging winds as far south as northeast KS and
northern MO.

Given uncertainties, will maintain 15% coverage, but with
conditional CIG1 area.

..Jewell.. 08/16/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:05:46 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 170645
SWODY3
SPC AC 170644

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and
strong wind gusts from eastern Colorado into parts of Nebraska
Wednesday afternoon/evening.

...Central Plains...

Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on
Wednesday. In the wake of a prior cold frontal passage, easterly
low-level winds will maintain modest boundary layer moisture across
the High Plains, with somewhat deeper moisture further east into
central NE. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will overspread
the region, and a corridor of moderate to strong instability is
forecast. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective
shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs are evident in
forecast soundings. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop within the low-level warm advection/upslope flow
regime during the afternoon into the evening. Isolated large hail
and strong outflow winds will be possible.

...Mid-South vicinity...

An MCV may be located over KS Wednesday morning. This feature will
migrate eastward as a surface boundary sags southward across parts
of the Ozark Plateau into the Lower OH Valley. A corridor of rich
boundary layer moisture will be in place near the surface boundary,
promoting a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability.
However, forecast soundings indicated capping may rapidly increase
downstream of the Ozarks into southeast MO and western TN/KY. It is
possible that a narrow corridor of severe potential could develop
somewhere from the Ozarks into the Mid-South as the MCV and surface
boundary impinge on the area. However, confidence is low, precluding
severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 19:32:52 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 171932
SWODY3
SPC AC 171931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail, and
strong wind gusts from the central/northern Plains to the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. A tornado threat may also exist across the
Ozarks to Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Central High Plains to the northern Plains...
Moderate instability with moderate to effective shear will be
present across a large portion of the central High Plains into the
northern Plains on Wednesday. As a weak mid-level shortwave trough
crosses the region, storms are expected to develop across the
Colorado Rockies and move into the adjacent Plains Wednesday
afternoon. A hot, well-mixed environment will support severe wind
gusts, but given the moderate to strong mid-upper level flow, a
supercell could develop which would have a greater hail threat.

Farther north, storm coverage is less certain as heights are
forecast to rise slightly through the afternoon. However, a front
will exist across the region which may be a focus for isolated
storms. The wind profile should support supercells with any activity
that develops. The primary threats with this activity would be large
hail and severe wind gusts.

...Central Plains...
Convective coverage is less certain across the central Plains as it
is removed from the primary surface features. However, a supercell
environment will be in place and some guidance (such as the RRFS,
ECMWF, and FV3) have storms in this vicinity, likely related to
outflow from morning convection across Nebraska. If these storms
form any supercells would be capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts.

...Ozarks to the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A more focused corridor of storms may develop along a frontal zone
across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Moderate to strong
instability is forecast with a 50 to 55 knot mid-level jet streak
across the region. Supercell should be the primary storm mode with
any activity within this zone. In addition, this activity could pose
some tornado threat as hodographs show moderate low-level
directional shear and a warm front in the region.

..Bentley.. 08/17/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 07:28:58 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 180728
SWODY3
SPC AC 180727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday from
Minnesota into Nebraska and northern Kansas, producing large hail
and localized wind damage. Scattered storms may also produce locally
severe gusts from eastern Virginia into North Carolinas.

...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge will build over the West on Thursday, with tightening
midlevel height gradient over the northern Plains. This will result
in increasing winds out of the northwest, with over 40 kt at 500 mb.
At the surface, a trough/wind shift is forecast to extend roughly
from MN into NE, with steep lapse rates developing. Storms will
likely form along this boundary during the afternoon, with scattered
cells producing large hail. Some predictability issues exist amongst
models, and therefore will defer a categorical upgrade to later
updates. The combination of 40+ kt of deep layer shear, steep lapse
rates and 60s F dewpoints may support hail at or above 2.00"
diameter.

...Eastern VA and NC...
A mid/upper wave will cross the Appalachians as a surface trough
develops during the afternoon. This will bring midlevel winds of
30-40 kt across MD/VA and into northern NC, aiding deep-layer shear
as well as overall mean wind speeds. At least isolated severe storms
appear possible from eastern VA into NC where 70s F dewpoints will
support moderate instability, with favorable afternoon timing
supporting localized wind damage.

..Jewell.. 08/18/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 19:31:56 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 181931
SWODY3
SPC AC 181930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO
UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of
the Mid Atlantic and north central Great Plains into Upper Midwest.

...Discussion...
In advance of weak, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly
approaching the Pacific coast, mid-level ridging may continue to
amplify northward through the northern U.S. and Canadian Rockies, to
the north of a prominent mid-level high slowly shifting northeast of
the Four Corners through this period. Downstream, broad mid-level
troughing is forecast to begin to gradually shift to the north and
east of the Great Lakes and Northeast, but weak lingering troughing
upstream may continue dig southeast of the middle Mississippi/lower
Ohio valley toward the southern Appalachians. One or two,
convective generated or augmented, perturbations may accelerate
northeastward out of the Ohio Valley through the northern Mid
Atlantic after emerging from the latter regime. In their wake, it
appears that a surface frontal zone will continue a southward
progression, reaching the southern Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf
States and southern Great Plains Red River Valley by 12Z Friday.

Based on latest model output, convective potential through this
period still appears relatively limited, or at least uncertain due
to its dependence on sub-synoptic developments with low
predictability at this time frame. As a result, the prior outlook
for this period has largely remained unchanged.

...Mid Atlantic/Southeast...
Latest model output suggests that stronger pre-frontal
destabilization to the east of the Appalachians may be confined to
the coastal plain, from northern North Carolina through the Delmarva
Peninsula. Coupled with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric flow
and forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching convectively
augmented perturbation, the environment may become conducive to
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

...North central Great Plains into Upper Midwest...
A narrow corridor of stronger destabilization appears at least
possible ahead of a short wave perturbation digging within modest
northwesterly mid-level flow. It is possible that this could become
sufficient to promote a risk for widely scattered strong storms with
potential to produce severe hail and wind late Thursday afternoon
into evening.

...Southwest...
Mid-level flow may transition to at least a bit more of a component
to the south of east during this period, but still potentially
conducive to propagation of convection off the higher terrain of
central and southeastern Arizona, given sufficient destabilization
in lower elevations. This remains uncertain due to potential
impacts of convection Wednesday through Wednesday night, so will
hold off on adding low severe probabilities for wind at this time.

..Kerr.. 08/18/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 07:38:28 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 190738
SWODY3
SPC AC 190737

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday
afternoon over parts of the Carolinas. Isolated to scattered
damaging hail and wind may occur over parts of the central Plains.

...Central Plains...
Northwest winds aloft will increase across the central and northern
Plains on Friday as a shortwave trough glances the area, and an
upper ridge builds to the west. Temperatures aloft will also cool
across this region, with -10 C at 500 mb pushing south to I-70 by
Saturday morning.

Strong and heating and a surface trough will develop during the
afternoon across the northern to central High Plains, with southeast
surface winds across the Plains. Sufficient moisture should remain
in place for moderate instability to develop across much of NE and
surrounding areas.

While storm coverage is a bit uncertain, the conditional threat of
large hail is high with elongated hodographs and deep-layer shear
over 50 kt. Storms should form near the surface trough over
southwest SD into northwest NE, and proceed southeastward. Swaths of
damaging hail and wind are forecast.

...Carolinas...
A weak upper trough will affect the northeastern quarter of the
CONUS, with 20 kt midlevel winds extending south into the Carolinas.
A front is forecast to move south across NC, with low pressure into
SC an GA. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front,
with mid 70s F dewpoints. Daytime heating will yield strong
instability, with a strong signal for convection along this
boundary. Numerous storms may occur, with strong to severe outflow
winds.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 19:09:46 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 191909
SWODY3
SPC AC 191908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch
diamter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central
Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some
with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of
the Carolinas.

...Central Plains...

Northwest flow aloft will strengthen further on Friday, with 40-60
kt at 500 mb common across the Mid-MO Valley. At the surface, low
pressure will develop along surface troughing across western NE/KS.
Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place across eastern NE/IA
and southward across the Lower MO Valley. A plume of steep midlevel
lapse rates will reside across the High Plains and spread eastward
toward the MO River during the evening. These steep lapse rates atop
the moist boundary layer will support a corridor of strong
instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Meanwhile, forecast soundings
indicate supercell wind profiles with nearly 50 kt effective shear
magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs.

Initial supercells should develop near the surface trough over
southwest SD/northwest NE, and shift southeast through evening,
posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Forecast guidance depicts a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet
developing across KS overnight. This may maintain clusters/promote
upscale growth into an MCS during the nighttime hours, spreading
southeast toward northwest MO by Saturday morning. If this occurs,
damaging wind potential could increase/become the predominant severe
hazard overnight.

Additional more isolated storms could develop ahead of a
southward-advancing cold front across Iowa overnight. Any storms
that develop will likely be elevated, but will form in an
environment supporting severe hail.

...Southeast...

Scattered to numerous storms are forecast within a very moist and
unstable environment along a surface trough extending northeast to
southwest from NC into GA/southeast AL. Vertical shear is expected
to remain very weak. Nevertheless, a mix of single and multi-cell
convection will pose a risk for wet microbursts during the afternoon
and early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/19/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 07:32:12 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 200731
SWODY3
SPC AC 200730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the
Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the
Northwest on Saturday.

...Upper OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes...
An upper trough will dig across the Great Lakes/OH Valley on
Saturday with a 50 kt backside speed max in the midlevels from MN
into IL. While winds aloft will be weaker farther east, cooling
aloft will overspread the entire region. Meanwhile, a cold front
will push across Lower MI, IN and OH during the day, with a plume of
1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing. This will support clusters of storms
with strong to severe gust potential. The cool temperatures aloft
and effective shear to 30 kt may also support marginal hail.

...Parts of eastern WA...ID...western MT...
A shortwave trough will move across the Northwest on Saturday, with
a 50-60 kt midlevel speed max moving across the region along with
cooling aloft. This trough will steepen midlevel lapse rates,
resulting in an unstable air mass as daytime heating occurs. Storms
are likely to form near the surface trough, and spread across
northern ID and into western MT through the evening and overnight.
The strengthening wind fields combined with favorable lapse rates
will support cells with marginal hail, as well as corridors of
strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 19:17:10 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 201917
SWODY3
SPC AC 201915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms may produce marginal hail or wind gusts from the
Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes, and over parts of the
Northwest on Saturday.

...Midwest...

An upper trough will dig and pivot southeast across the region on
Saturday. At the surface, a front will extend from Lower MI to
southern IL at the start of the period, with the boundary tracking east/southeast across the Ohio Valley through early Sunday. Ahead of
the boundary, 60s F surface dewpoints beneath cooler midlevel
temperatures will support moderate destabilization by afternoon.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface boundary and spread southeast through evening. This activity
will pose a risk for marginal hail and strong wind gusts.

...Northern Rockies...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies on Saturday. This will bring enhanced southwesterly
flow and cooling aloft over much of the region. Steepening midlevel
lapse rates will support weak destabilization, and isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected. A deeply mixed boundary
layer beneath strengthening flow aloft will support strong outflow
winds with this activity. Small hail could also occur with stronger
cells.

...Lower MO Valley to AR/Mid-South...

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on
Saturday. A surface front will drop southward across MO/IL into the
Ozarks and Mid-South vicinity. Ahead of the front, a seasonally
moist airmass will be in place, and moderate to strong instability
is forecast. Some forecast guidance suggests a remnant MCV or
outflow from prior convection could focus thunderstorm develop along
the sagging surface front. Where the greatest coverage of
thunderstorms occurs remains highly uncertain. If confidence
increases in subsequent outlooks, wind probabilities could be needed
for portions of the region.

..Leitman.. 08/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 07:33:16 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 210733
SWODY3
SPC AC 210731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TO CENTRAL MONTANA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and wind gusts
are possible in portions of the Northeast and across parts of
southwest and central Montana.

...Southwest into central Montana...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest
and into eastern British Columbia. While the parent trough is
forecast to deamplify through the period, moderate mid-level flow is
forecast to remain across much of Montana. Weak to potentially
moderate instability is forecast to develop across southwest into
central Montana. The moderate mid-level flow should provide ample
shear for storm organization including some supercell potential.
Strong heating will support steep low-level lapse rates and some
severe wind gust threat with the strongest storms.

...Portions of the Northeast...
A mid-level trough will become negatively tilted as it pivots from
the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Sunday. A broad 1006-1010mb
surface low is forecast somewhere in the vicinity of western New
York, southeast Ontario and southern Quebec. Storms are forecast by
mid-day along a cold front that should extend from New York into
central Pennsylvania on Sunday morning and move eastward through the
day. The environment ahead of this front is forecast to have
moderate to strong shear and relatively weak instability. Forecast
soundings show a lower storm top environment due to warmer
temperatures aloft. However, despite the weak instability, the
expectation for at least some supercell threat, combined with decent instability within the hail growth zone and strong shear may support
some large hail and damaging wind gusts Sunday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 19:29:48 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 211929
SWODY3
SPC AC 211928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind appears possible across parts of the northern Rockies
and Great Plains, and across parts of the Northeast, Sunday through
Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that prominent mid/upper ridging centered across the
southern Rockies through southern Great Plains will be maintained
through this period. However, initially amplified ridging extending
through the westerlies to the north of this feature is likely to
become suppressed by a notable mid-level short wave trough, slowly
progressing east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies
through the southern Canadian Prairies and adjacent international
border vicinity.

Downstream, large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to only make
very slow eastward progress east of the Mississippi Valley through
Atlantic Seaboard/western Atlantic vicinity, while an evolving
embedded low slowly shifts eastward near/north of the lower Great
Lakes region, in response to at least a couple of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around it.

In lower-levels, the primary surface cyclone is forecast to migrate
northward toward James Bay, with a weaker secondary low perhaps
migrating inland across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic/southern
New England, before weakening further. It appears that the
composite leading edge of cooler low-level air trailing this
feature, will stall and weaken across parts of the southern Great
Plains and Gulf Coast into southern Mid Atlantic.

...Central and eastern Montana...
There remains a signal in latest model output that forcing for
ascent within the base of the progressive short wave trough will
support increasing thunderstorm development across the higher
terrain of central Montana by late afternoon. Coincident with
strengthening westerly mid-level flow to 30-40+ kt, and the
evolution of a strongly heated and fairy deeply mixed downstream
boundary-layer (with at least modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg),
there appears potential for the evolution of an upscale growing and
organizing cluster into early evening. If this occurs, the
environment appears conducive to an accompanying swath of strong to
severe gusts across parts of central into eastern Montana by late
Sunday evening.

...Dakotas...
Forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection downstream of
the progressive short wave trough may become increasingly conducive
to upscale growing thunderstorm development from the west/central
Dakotas state border through central/eastern South Dakota Sunday
evening into Sunday night. Aided by inflow of seasonably moist
boundary-layer air supportive of CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg,
there appears potential for activity to become organized with
potential to produce a swath or two of strong to severe gusts. The
21/12Z NAM, in particular, generates a fairly notable convective
perturbation in association with this development. If this signal
becomes supported by more model output in later runs, severe
probabilities may need to be upgraded further.

...Northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England...
Forcing for ascent aided by an initial short wave impulse pivoting
around the southeastern through eastern periphery of the Great Lakes
mid-level low probably will provide support for increasing
thunderstorm development across parts of eastern New York and
Pennsylvania into southern New England during the day Sunday.
Inland destabilization and vertical shear across this region remains
a bit uncertain, but it possible the environment could become
supportive of strong storms with potential to produce severe hail
and wind.

..Kerr.. 08/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 06:53:08 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 220652
SWODY3
SPC AC 220651

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
are possible from the northern to central High Plains on Monday.

...Central to the Northern Plains...
The strong ridge which has been present for much of the last 3 weeks
will continue across the southern Plains and the High Plains.
However, the northern extent of this ridge will be flattened with a
frontal zone extending from the northern Plains into the central
High Plains. Moderate instability is forecast along this frontal
zone where isolated to scattered storms are expected on Monday. The
strongest shear is expected across North Dakota into Minnesota where
a 40 knot jet streak will overspread the region. Isolated storms may
form along the front in this region during the day, but the better
signal for storms is during the evening when a mid-level shortwave
trough approaches the region from southern Canada.

The greater diurnal storm coverage is anticipated in the Nebraska
Panhandle and into southwest South Dakota. However, the weaker shear
across this region may result in only marginally organized storms.
Therefore, a few severe wind gusts are possible and thus the
Marginal is warranted, but the relatively unorganized storm mode
precludes higher severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 08/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 19:29:02 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 221928
SWODY3
SPC AC 221927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...AND MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible
across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern
Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may
also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central
CONUS while an upper trough begins to eject into the Atlantic from
New England on Monday. The embedded impulse responsible for cresting
the ridge over the northern Rockies and encouraging severe storm
development on Day 2 (Sunday) will overspread the northern High
Plains on Monday. Weak lee troughing over the Plains will encourage
modest low-level moisture advection beneath stronger westerly flow
aloft, resulting in enough deep-layer ascent, amid coinciding
buoyancy and vertical wind shear, to support isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms.

...Central High Plains to the northern Plains...
Upslope flow of 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates along the central and northern High Plains will yield
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE as a mid-level impulse begins to overspread
the region. Over 30 kts of 500 mb flow and resultant deep-layer
shear will coincide with this buoyancy, supporting the development
of multicells and perhaps supercells by late Monday afternoon.
Should more sustained supercells develop, an instance or two of 2+
inch diameter hail or a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out given the aforementioned mid-level lapse rates. Slight risk probabilities may
be needed in future outlooks pending higher confidence in greater
storm coverage.

...Parts of the northern Great Basin to central Rockies...
A deep and dry boundary layer should develop by afternoon peak
heating, resulting in inverted-V thermodynamic profiles from the
northern Great Basin into the central Rockies. Stronger westerly
mid-level flow will overspread this dry and unstable boundary layer,
promoting elongated hodographs and the tendency for storms to
organize into multicells. Given the organized storm mode and
evaporative cooling potential with the dry boundary layer in place,
a few severe gusts may occur with the stronger storms.

...Maine...
Deep-layer ascent ahead of the ejecting upper trough will support
scattered thunderstorm development during the late morning into the
afternoon hours. A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will
pivot around the upper trough and overspread Main during the
afternoon, when buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750
J/kg with over 50 kts of effective bulk/speed shear given highly
elongated hodographs. Therefore, any storms that develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in nature, posting an
isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the afternoon.

...Parts of the Gulf Coast...
Another hot and humid day is expected along the Gulf Coast, where
strong surface heating amid mid 70s F dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
over 2000 J/kg. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough
moisture-fueled buoyancy will support the potential for wet
downbursts capable of damaging gusts during the afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 08/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 07:29:22 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 230729
SWODY3
SPC AC 230728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND VICINITY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of
the central Plains, the Southeast, and the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.
A more focused region of severe wind gusts is possible across
portions of the central High Plains.

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward from the
Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A surface low,
and associated cold front, will move relatively quickly
southeastward through the day. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast ahead
of this front which will result in moderate instability. Moderate
flow associated with the mid-level jet streak will provide ample
shear for storm organization. Storms will likely be ongoing at the
beginning of the period near the Canadian border which may result in
a somewhat messy storm mode through the day. However, farther south,
more isolated storm development is possible. Given storm motion
normal to the front and moderate mid-level flow, supercells will be
possible. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates and warmer
temperatures aloft may limit the large hail threat somewhat.

...Central Plains...
A reservoir of strong instability is forecast across the central
Plains where low 70s dewpoints are expected on Tuesday
afternoon/evening. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (perhaps
enhanced by Day 2 convection) is consistently shown among guidance
which should move across this region during the afternoon/evening.
The combination of a strongly unstable warm sector and forcing from
this mid-level shortwave trough should result in scattered to
widespread storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Effective
shear around 30 to 35 knots should result in a combination of
multicells and supercells initially with one or more clusters
developing by evening as storms grow upscale. The most favorable
region for a greater coverage of severe wind gusts will likely exist
across northwest Kansas and vicinity where diurnal timing is favored
and storm mode transition is expected.

...Southeast...
Strong heating is expected along the Gulf Coast south of a frontal
zone. Shear will be very weak, but PWAT in excess of 2 inches and
the hot air mass should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of
isolated damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening
hours. A slightly greater coverage of storms and severe potential
may exist across MS/AL downstream of early morning elevated
convection forecast to develop across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 19:32:30 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 231932
SWODY3
SPC AC 231930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered severe storms are likely across portions
of the central Plains on Tuesday. More isolated severe storms may
also occur across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A synoptic scale mid-level anticyclone will overspread most of the
western and central CONUS on Tuesday, with multiple mid-level
impulses poised to pivot around the anticyclone across the Plains
states into the Upper- and Mid-MS Valleys. The most pronounced
impulse, in the form of a mid-level shortwave trough, will traverse
the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon, supporting a surface trough
with a cold front draping southwestward across the Plains. Along and
ahead of the cold front, enough deep-layer shear and ascent, in
tandem with adequate buoyancy, will support at least scattered
severe storms across the southern and central High Plains into the
Upper MS Valley.

...Central and southern High Plains...
As a mid-level impulse crests the ridge and tracks southeastward
across the northern Plains, a cold front will drift
south-southeastward across NE. Meanwhile, upslope moist low-level
flow will encourage both increased instability and convergence along
the immediate lee of the Rockies over NM and CO. 8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates will overspread 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding
2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, with the strongest buoyancy expected
immediately ahead of the cold front over northeast CO into NE. Here,
the greatest severe threat exists since 40 kts of effective bulks
shear will also coincide with the aforementioned buoyancy, with
severe wind- and hail-producing multicells and supercells expected.
There is some indication for the potential of cold-pool mergers and
subsequent development of an MCS. If this occurs, a severe wind
swath would manifest across the central High Plains. Farther south
into the southern High Plains, a deep and dry boundary layer will
compensate for weaker vertical wind shear to support a severe gust
threat in association with dry downbursts, driven by evaporative
cooling.

...Upper MS Valley...
A narrow tongue of at least mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect
ahead of a surface trough/cold front Tuesday afternoon. Though
mid-level lapse rates may be modest, the rich low-level moisture
will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, southwesterly
surface winds beneath stronger northwesterly flow aloft support
modestly elongated and curved hodographs, with supercells possible.
All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including an
instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes. An upgrade to Slight Risk may be needed in future
outlooks if consensus and consistency among guidance members
indicates relatively greater storm coverage.

...Portions of the Gulf Coast...
Another day of deep-layer north-northwesterly flow, atop a very
moist boundary layer (i.e. 70s F surface dewpoints), will encourage multicellular development amid 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The stronger
storm cores may support wet downdrafts, the strongest of which may
produce isolated wind damage.

..Squitieri.. 08/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 07:30:46 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 240730
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central
High Plains, Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and in the
Midwest into the Great Lakes.

...Midwest into the Great Lakes...
A mid-level shortwave trough will advance through the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. A surface cold front will move southeastward through the
period with thunderstorms developing along it by mid-afternoon.
Upper 60 to low 70s dewpoints will result in moderate instability.
Multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells will be possible
along and ahead of the cold front during the afternoon and into the
evening. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat. However, some low-level wind shear could result in a
localized tornado threat with any supercells which develop.

...Central High Plains...
A weakening of the mid-level ridge will support scattered storm
development within a weak upslope flow regime across eastern
Colorado on Wednesday. These storms will form on the southwestern
periphery of the stronger mid-level flow traversing the northeastern
portion of the upper-level ridge. This may result in sufficient
shear for a few south-southeasterly moving supercells capable of
large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A weak surface low will drift slowly southeastward along a frontal
boundary into the ArkLaTex on Wednesday. Strong heating is expected
with temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This deeply-mixed
and uncapped airmass will support scattered thunderstorm development
by mid-afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft is relatively weak (~20
knots). This will likely result in mostly unorganized storms with a
few multicell clusters. Despite the relatively weak shear, the
strong heating will support some damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 19:31:54 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 241931
SWODY3
SPC AC 241930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts
of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe
gusts are the main threat across these regions.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will stagnate over the western and central CONUS
through Wednesday, with an upper trough expected to progress over
eastern Canada, resulting in a broad northwesterly upper-air regime
with surface troughing over the MS Valley and Midwest. Seasonably
rich low-level moisture will overspread portions of the High Plains,
as well as the Great Lakes and portions of the Lower MS Valley,
aiding in the development of scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Another day of moist upslope low-level flow is expected across
portions of the central and southern High Plains, where orographic
lift will support convective initiation by mid afternoon. 60s F
surface dewpoints will advect northwestward beneath mid-level lapse
rates of at least 8 C/km, yielding 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer
shear should remain rather modest, but given modestly elongated
hodographs, over 30 kts of effective bulk shear is likely in spots,
which will support at least transient supercells. Isolated instances
of severe wind and hail are the primary threats. If greater storm
coverage and/or shear becomes apparent, a Slight Risk upgrade may be
needed in future outlooks.

...Great Lakes into the OH Valley...
A wedge of 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northeast ahead
of the approaching surface trough, beneath 6-6.5 C/km mid-level
lapse rates, resulting in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Thunderstorm
initiation should take place along/ahead of the surface trough as
surface temperatures rise into the mid 70s F by afternoon. Modest
veering and strengthening of the flow with height will encourage
over 35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by hodographs
with some curvature and elongation. Multicells, line segments, and
supercells are the expected storm mode, with severe wind/hail the
primary concerns. At the moment, expected limited storm coverage
precludes Slight risk probabilities.

...Lower MS Valley...
Thunderstorm development is expected Wednesday afternoon with the
heating of a very moist boundary layer, characterized by mid 70s F
surface dewpoints. Some organization into multicellular complexes is
possible given modest vertical speed shear as the region is grazed
by the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow. MLCAPE will
likely reach 2000-3000 J/kg supporting wet downbursts with damaging
gust potential.

..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 07:31:42 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the
Northeast.

...Northeast...
A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the
Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec
with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern
Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front
with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead
of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and
perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of
greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern
New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a
Slight Risk at this time.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated to scattered storms are expected within an upslope flow
regime from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwest
South Dakota on Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of northwesterly effective
shear. This could support some supercell potential including some 2+
inch hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. Isolated storm coverage remains
the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities
at this time.

...Lower MS Valley...
Moderate to strong instability is expected across the Lower MS
Valley on Thursday. Shear will be weak, but there is some potential
for a more focused cluster of storms to develop, perhaps associated
with a remnant MCV from Day2/Wed convection across Arkansas. If a
more organized cluster develops, the moist environment and moderate
to strong instability may support some damaging wind gusts. Given
uncertainties about the location and intensity of Day 1 and Day 2
convection, confidence is not high enough to add severe weather
probabilities at this time.

..Bentley/Afwa.. 08/25/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 07:35:14 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 250735
SWODY3
SPC AC 250734

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the
Northeast.

...Northeast...
A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the
Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec
with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern
Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front
with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead
of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and
perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of
greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern
New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a
Slight Risk at this time.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated to scattered storms are expected within an upslope flow
regime from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwest
South Dakota on Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of northwesterly effective
shear. This could support some supercell potential including some 2+
inch hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. Isolated storm coverage remains
the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities
at this time.

...Lower MS Valley...
Moderate to strong instability is expected across the Lower MS
Valley on Thursday. Shear will be weak, but there is some potential
for a more focused cluster of storms to develop, perhaps associated
with a remnant MCV from Day2/Wed convection across Arkansas. If a
more organized cluster develops, the moist environment and moderate
to strong instability may support some damaging wind gusts. Given
uncertainties about the location and intensity of Day 1 and Day 2
convection, confidence is not high enough to add severe weather
probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 08/25/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 19:14:16 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 251914
SWODY3
SPC AC 251913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Northeast on Thursday. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or
two may accompany these storms.

...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...

Modestly enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region to
the east of the upper trough axis oriented from the Great Lakes to
TN Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front will develop
east/southeast across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes through
the period. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface boundary
will maintain 60s F dewpoints, supporting weak to moderate
destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley toward the Hudson Valley
(decreasing across New England). Scattered thunderstorm development
is expected during the afternoon and continuing through the evening.
Forecast soundings suggest supercells will be possible, with an
accompanying risk of damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado or
two where backed low-level winds persist.

Scattered thunderstorm clusters are expected with southwest extent
into southern OH/eastern KY/WV/VA as several shortwave impulses/MCVs
migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern to central
Appalachians. Vertical shear will be weaker further south, but a
moist and unstable airmass could support strong wet microbursts.

...Central High Plains...

The amplified upper ridge will develop eastward toward the High
Plains on Thursday. Low-level moisture will be more limited across
eastern CO/NM and vicinity. However, southeasterly low-level flow
near a surface boundary will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across portions of NE toward the Black Hills in SD.
Isolated storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills and
within the low-level warm advection regime with southeast extent
into NE. Supercell wind profiles suggest strong outflow winds and
large hail (some possibly 2+ inch diameter) will be possible. Storm
coverage with southward extent is uncertain, but will maintain the
Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for now given a conditionally
supportive environment.

..Leitman.. 08/25/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 07:21:20 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 260721
SWODY3
SPC AC 260720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern
Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern Plains.

...Central Plains...
The upper-level ridge across the Plains will start to deamplify on
Friday. Simultaneously, a lee trough will develop across the
northern Plains and into the central High Plains. Strengthening
low-level flow will lead to a moistening/destabilizing airmass east
of the lee trough. In addition, the low-level jet will strengthen to
near 40 knots across the Plains. Increasing isentropic ascent
associated with this strengthening low-level jet will be the primary
forcing mechanism for storms across the region. 00Z guidance focuses
this low-level jet east of the primary instability which creates
considerable uncertainty for storm coverage and intensity. Given the environment for severe weather across the region, have highlighted
the most favorable area with a 5% severe weather probability.

...North Georgia into the Carolinas...
A very moist airmass will be present across the Carolinas on Friday
with dewpoints in the 70s. Around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow
may result in occasional storm organization, but weak lapse rates
may limit storm intensity. Nonetheless, numerous storms in a very
moist, moderate to strongly unstable environment will support some
damaging wind potential. Therefore, a Marginal Risk has been added
for this threat.

..Bentley.. 08/26/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 19:08:38 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 261908
SWODY3
SPC AC 261907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM NORTH GA INTO SOUTHEAST
VA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northern
Georgia into the Carolinas and the northern/central Plains.

...Northern/Central Plains...

An upper ridge, centered from the southern Rockies to the western
Dakotas will persist on Friday. Some enhancement to
west/northwesterly flow aloft is forecast, and a surface trough will
develop across the northern and central High Plains. Southerly
low-level flow to the east of the surface trough will transport 60s
F dewpoints northward from the central into the northern Plains. As
a low-level jet strengthens during the evening, thunderstorm
development is possible. Capping may limit surface-based convection.
However, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid
moderate instability and steep midlevel lapse rates. If storms
develop, large hail will be possible.

...North GA into southeast VA...

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on Friday.
Surface high pressure will build over the Midwest while a surface
trough extends from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the southern
Appalachians. East of the trough, a very moist airmass will be in
place. Daytime heating of this very moist/high PW airmass will
support moderate destabilization, and thunderstorm clusters are
expected to develop over higher terrain. Vertical shear will be
weak, limiting organized convection. Nevertheless, wet microbursts
could produce sporadic strong/locally damaging wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 07:30:02 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 270729
SWODY3
SPC AC 270728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the
northern Great Basin and across the northern Plains.

...Northern Great Basin Vicinity...
A broad range of 00Z guidance (GFS/RRFS/NAM) shows moderate
instability developing across northern Utah on Saturday amid strong
surface heating. Forecast soundings show an uncapped airmass by
mid-afternoon when scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to
begin. 45 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support storm organization/longevity and some damaging wind threat (some 75+ mph).
The ECMWF is the least unstable, with more cloud-cover across the
region, which may limit the severe weather threat somewhat.
Nonetheless, even this ECMWF solution would likely support some
severe wind threat. Therefore, a Marginal Risk seems warranted, and
if all guidance trends toward the more unstable solution, an upgrade
to Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks.

...Northern Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the Northern
Plains on Saturday within a moist region to the north of a surface
low. Forcing will be relatively weak, but subtle height falls and
perhaps a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the
southwesterly flow, may be sufficient for isolated to widely
scattered storms Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
long hodographs across the region which would support a supercell
storm mode. A Marginal Risk has been added for this threat, but the
lack of stronger forcing precludes higher probabilities at this
time.

..Bentley.. 08/27/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 19:19:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 271918
SWODY3
SPC AC 271917

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the
northern Great Basin to the northern Plains.

...Great Basin to Northern Plains...

A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the region
ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving east across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies. Modest boundary layer moisture will
be in place with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to
upper 50s, though 60s are possible across portions of the Dakotas.
This will support modest destabilization from the Great Basin into
the Dakotas. Widely scattered storms are expected to develop across
the Great Basin and spread east/northeast through evening. Steep
low-level lapse rates and stronger flow atop a well mixed boundary
layer will support occasional strong to severe gusts.

Sufficient clustering may occur, supporting some upscale development
as storms move over eastern WY/MT into the western Dakotas during
the evening. It is possible this activity will encounter a more
moist and unstable airmass, promoting greater severe potential.
However, the evolution of a surface low and associated frontal
boundary across the Dakotas is uncertain, precluding higher severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 07:22:14 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 280721
SWODY3
SPC AC 280721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind
and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and
northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will gradually drift eastward from the central CONUS
to the OH/TN Valley areas on Sunday, with two mid-level shortwave
troughs poised to crest the upper ridge and overspread the Northeast
and northern Plains, respectively. A surface low will develop across
the northern Plains, preceded by a warm front that extends from the
Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley as a cold front sags
south-southeastward across the central Plains. Along the warm front
and ahead of the cold front, seasonable low-level moisture will be
overspread by modestly cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft
to support some threat for strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms.

...Portions of the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley...
One or more rounds of thunderstorms are expected to overspread the
Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the day and early overnight
hours on Sunday. Forecast soundings show 7+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates overspreading 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE on a widespread basis, particularly along the warm front,
where sizeable curved/elongated hodographs also exist. The current
thinking is that a mix of multicells and supercells are possible,
with one or more clusters potentially growing upscale into an MCS.
Severe wind and hail will be the main threats with
multicell/supercell structures, with perhaps some risk of a wind
swath should an MCS materialize.

...Portions of the central Plains...
Convective initiation along the cold front is quite conditional
across NE and surrounding areas given appreciable MLCINH expected.
Nonetheless, steep lapse rates potentially exceeding 8 C/km amid
elongated hodographs suggest supercells structures could develop if
MLCINH erodes sufficiently, or if isentropic lift in the early
evening at the terminus of a strengthening low-level jet can support
elevated convection.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 19:18:22 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 281918
SWODY3
SPC AC 281916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms, accompanied by mainly a severe wind
and hail threat, are possible across portions of the central and
northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level low across the Pacific Northwest will lift northward
into Canada on D3/Sunday as the ridge across the central US shifts
gradually eastward. Multiple shortwave troughs will rotate through
the northern periphery of the ridge across northern Rockies into the
northern Plains, with strengthening mid-level flow overspreading the
northern Plains. A surface low will develop across the northern
Plains, preceded by a warm front that extends from the Dakotas into
the Upper MS Valley as a cold front sags south-southeastward across
the central Plains.

...Portions of the Northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the morning
and evening of D3/Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing at the
start of the period across the Dakotas into central Minnesota near
the warm front within the warm advection regime, with some potential
for damaging wind and transient supercell structures given strong
shear profiles. A mix of multicells and supercells may redevelop by
the afternoon/early evening from eastern Montana into the
western/central Dakotas, with one or more clusters potentially
growing upscale into an MCS. Severe wind and hail will be the main
threats with multicell/supercell structures, with perhaps some risk
of a wind swath should an MCS materialize.

...Portions of the Central Plains...
Further south across the central Plains, more substantial capping
leads to a more conditional threat. The strengthening low-level jet
in the evening may aid in overcoming MLCIN and development of
elevated convection. Supercell wind profiles will be in place with
steep lapse rates and moderate to strong instability. Should storms
be able to initiate, they will pose a wind and hail risk into the
late evening.

..Thornton.. 08/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 07:24:14 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 290724
SWODY3
SPC AC 290722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A 500 mb anticyclone will become established over the central Plains
to the Mid-MS Valley on Monday, with a low-amplitude mid-level
shortwave trough poised to crest the ridge and impinge on the Upper
MS Valley. A surface trough will become established across the Upper
MS Valley/Midwest during the afternoon, promoting enough deep-layer
ascent for isolated thunderstorm development when also considering
the approach of the upper trough. Additionally, stronger mid-level
flow, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will overspread a
moist boundary layer, supporting scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms over portions of the Upper MS Valley.

...Portions of the Upper MS Valley...
The aforementioned low-amplitude mid-level trough will impinge on
the Upper MS Valley and support surface lee troughing by afternoon.
A diffuse warm front may also materialize roughly along the MN/IA
border into central WI. An appreciable EML will extend from the
central Rockies to the western Great Lakes, with up to 8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates possible. These lapse rates will overspread
mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread
basis, especially near the warm front. Given the possibility of an
increasing low-level jet beneath 30-50 kt 500 mb flow, elongated
hodographs with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear are possible. Such
conditions would favor supercellular development, with at least
severe wind and hail possible. However, storm coverage remains in
question since the strongest deep-layer ascent accompanying the
low-amplitude upper trough will only graze the warm frontal zone to
the north. Higher severe probabilities may be needed pending greater
confidence in higher storm coverage.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 19:35:50 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 291935
SWODY3
SPC AC 291934

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by wind and hail, are
possible Monday afternoon from the central High Plains toward parts
of the Corn Belt.

...Discussion...
On Monday, a shortwave trough will lift northeastward out of the
Northern Plains, with an upper high over the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valleys. To the west, an upper low will drop southward off the West
Coast, with increasing southwest flow aloft from CA into the Great
Basin late. A leading wave is also forecast to develop over the
central Rockies, moving from CO into NE overnight.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary will extend from NE/SD
into southern MN/WI, where 60s to 70s F dewpoints will exist.
Conditionally, this region could support a severe risk. However, the
departing upper wave combined veering and weakening low-level winds
suggest minimal storm coverage for most of the period. Some forecast
soundings also indicate shallow boundary layer moisture. However,
isolated storms cannot be ruled out both during the day and
overnight within this moist zone, therefore will maintain low severe probabilities.

Scattered strong to severe storms may also occur over the Central
High Plains, where a lee trough will develop and where a developing
midlevel wave is forecast. Strong heating as well as 50s to near 60
F dewpoints will support scattered late afternoon storms from
eastern CO/southeast WY, spreading northeast into NE. A few severe
gusts or marginal hail will be possible.

..Jewell.. 08/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 07:24:52 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 300724
SWODY3
SPC AC 300723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least a few storms capable of producing severe wind/hail and
perhaps a tornado are all possible across portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will become centered over the TN Valley on Tuesday as
a mid-level trough becomes situated over the Interior West, and
multiple embedded impulses overspread the Great Lakes and Northeast
regions. Rich low-level moisture will become established along the
periphery of the upper ridge, overspread by cooler temperatures and
stronger flow aloft with the passage of the aforementioned impulses.
Strong to severe thunderstorms may result, especially over portions
of the Northeast.

...Portions of the Northeast...
Deterministic guidance members are beginning to demonstrate a
consensus in depicting an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting from
the Great Lakes and impinging on the lower Hudson Valley while
pivoting around the upper ridge. While mid-level lapse rates
accompanying this perturbation may not be particularly steep, (e.g.
between 6.5-7 C/km), rich low-level moisture (e.g. low to mid 70s F
dewpoints) will be present. Furthermore, forecast soundings depict
appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, suggesting some storms
may obtain supercell structures. A severe wind and hail threat may
accompany the stronger storms and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
There is the potential for earlier day clouds and precipitation,
which may yield a differential heating zone. Should this occur,
severe potential may be confined to this baroclinic boundary. Since
the specifics on the placement of such a boundary are too difficult
to pinpoint this far in advance, a Category 2/Slight Risk has been
introduced with the understanding that these probabilities may be
modified in future outlooks.

...Parts of the Midwest...
Deep-layer ascent will be limited farther west across the Midwest as
a series of embedded impulses glance the region to the north.
Nonetheless, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread 70+ F
surface dewpoints from IA to lower MI Tuesday afternoon, yielding
over 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Appreciable sized hodographs will also
coincide with this buoyancy as the eastern part of a strengthening
low-level jet impinges on the Midwest. Given the limited ascent,
storm coverage is highly uncertain and may end up being quite sparse
at best. Nonetheless, Marginal Risk probabilities were introduced
given the favorable thermodynamic/kinematic space within a close
distance of the low-amplitude upper trough.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 19:35:56 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 301935
SWODY3
SPC AC 301934

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NEW JERSEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday over parts of
New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Isolated severe storms may
also extend westward into Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
A zone of moderate instability is forecast to stretch from the Upper
Midwest eastward into parts of NY, PA and NJ on Tuesday. This will
also be along a weak surface trough, where various areas of rain and thunderstorms will exist throughout the period. Anticyclonic flow
aloft around the northern periphery of an upper ridge will yield
30-40 kt midlevel northwesterlies, and minor cooling aloft may occur
as embedded disturbances move across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast.

...Northeast...
The greatest concentration of thunderstorms will be from NY into PA,
both during the day and overnight. Early day storms will be possible
from southern New England into NY, where elevated instability will
exist. Destabilization will then occur south of this zone and
possible outflows, with additional activity possible. Forcing for
ascent should remain relatively weak, but sufficient convergence
near any boundaries or an afternoon surface trough may support
redevelopment. Elongated mid to upper level hodographs suggest
cellular storm mode is possible, with hail and locally damaging
gusts most likely. Overnight, additional activity is forecast as
height falls occur upstream, and westerly winds at 850 mb maintain
theta-e. Several models suggest storms moving out of Ontario
overnight, with wind potential.

...Nebraska into northwest Iowa and vicinity...
Moderate southwest winds aloft will persist over this area, as
daytime heating yield moderate instability. Some of this area may be
affected by early day rain/storms, with boundary reinforcement.
Strong heating and a developing southerly low-level jet should
support new development, perhaps a supercell or two producing hail.
Storm coverage may then increase during the evening and spread
northeastward.

..Jewell.. 08/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 07:18:00 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 310717
SWODY3
SPC AC 310716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected across portions of the eastern Great
Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Severe wind and hail are the
main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the central and eastern CONUS as
an upper trough progresses across the Intermountain West on
Wednesday. A pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Great
Lakes and overspread the northern Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday
afternoon. Seasonably cold temperatures aloft and strong
northwesterly flow will accompany this impulse while it passes over
a moist and unstable boundary layer, promoting the potential for
severe storms.

...Northwest PA to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
Scattered thunderstorms (perhaps strong) will be ongoing across PA
and points southeast at the start of the period (12Z Wednesday).
Through the early afternoon hours, showers and thunderstorms will
give way to at least modest insolation, resulting in boundary layer destabilization. Surface heating of a moist boundary layer (e.g. low
70s F surface dewpoints) will result in 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE given
mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. The aforementioned
mid-level impulse overspreading eastern Lower Michigan to the
Delmarva will result in strong northwesterly flow aloft and 35-45
kts of effective bulk shear. Furthermore, forecast soundings also
depict appreciably large and curved hodographs, with over 200 m2/s2
0-3 km SRH. Supercells and bowing segments will be the most likely
storm mode, with severe wind and hail the main threats, though a
couple of tornadoes are also possible.

...Portions of the eastern Great Lakes...
A secondary mid-level impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes
by Wednesday afternoon, which may support an additional round of
storms. These storms will be preceded by 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates, which will overspread 70 F surface dewpoints and yield 2000+
J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and
supercells may occur, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 19:35:34 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 311934
SWODY3
SPC AC 311933

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with wind and hail risk are expected from the Lower
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A few severe storms
may also occur over parts of Montana.

...Lower Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic...
An upper ridge will hold over the TN Valley to Appalachians, while
an upper low drifts east into Quebec. In between, moderate
westerlies aloft will exist, supporting favorable deep-layer shear
and areas of storm organization.

At the surface, a weak surface trough should extend roughly from
Lower MI into NY, with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints to the
south. The westerly low-level winds will support air mass recovery
behind any early/dying morning activity, with afternoon
redevelopment expected from Lower MI into NY. Corridors of damaging
winds are most likely as storms move rapidly southeastward.
Deep-layer shear may also favor large hail with the more cellular
activity. Low-level shear may favor a few supercells across eastern NY/PA/NJ/DelMarVa, and therefore a brief tornado or two cannot be
ruled out assuming storm mode remains discrete as they move east
into the better shear environment.

...Western to northern MT...
A potent shortwave trough is forecast to move out of the Great Basin
and across ID and MT Wednesday, with substantial cooling aloft. Low
pressure is forecast to develop into west-central MT, with a
prominent cold front moving across the entire state into Thursday
morning.

Strong surface heating ahead of the front combined with cooling
aloft will result in steep lapse rates through a deep layer, aiding destabilization despite limited moisture. Storms that develop near
the front during the afternoon are thus likely to produce strong to
locally severe gusts. Marginally severe hail may also occur. Farther
east, increasing southeast low-level winds will bring a plume of
instability into eastern MT as well, which may support cells capable
of hail through the evening.

...NE...SD...MN...IA...
Predictability is low, but isolated strong to severe storms cannot
be ruled out during the late afternoon and evening, as winds
increase out of the south ahead of the northern Rockies wave. Areas
of moderate instability will remain over the region with
southeasterly surface winds and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints. Peak
heating will lead to an uncapped air mass across central SD and NE,
with lift increasing into the evening as a low-level jet develops.
Models are in disagreement with the most likely area for
development, but severe probabilities may be added later from NE
into MN.

..Jewell.. 08/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 07:22:18 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 010721
SWODY3
SPC AC 010720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging
gusts and perhaps some hail, appear likely across portions of the
Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist across the Mid-MS Valley and points east,
with multiple mid-level perturbations expected to crest the upper
ridge from the Upper MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through the day
Thursday. Currently, the best chance for severe storms will be with
the primary impulse over the Mid-Atlantic, as stronger flow aloft
overspreads a moist boundary layer. A couple of severe thunderstorms
also cannot be ruled out farther northwest across the Upper MS
Valley, where rich low-level moisture will be coincident with a
diffuse warm frontal boundary.

...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a modest
mid-level impulse will overspread the Mid-Atlantic, contributing to
some forcing for ascent and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear.
Despite only 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates, surface dewpoints
exceeding 70 F will yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE from the eastern OH
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coastline on a widespread basis. While
upper support may be weaker compared to the previous day, multiple
days of preceding storms should leave behind a lingering baroclinic
boundary somewhere around the Mid-Atlantic, which may act as a
forcing mechanism for convective initiation. Given the
aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, supercells and bowing
segments may occur, capable of producing mainly a severe gust
threat, though a couple instances of severe hail may occur.

Some guidance suggests that the best buoyancy/shear parameter space
for severe may situate over eastern PA into NJ. However, it is
unclear how previous day's storms will impact the boundary layer
over this region by Day 3/Thursday, so Slight Risk probabilities
were introduced conservatively, with some latitude given to the
northern extent of the Marginal Risk probabilities. If the more
aggressive guidance holds true and convective overturning does not
dominate this region, higher severe probabilities may be needed in
future outlooks.

...Portions of the Upper MS Valley to the Midwest...
Convective initiation is more uncertain across portions of the
Midwest to the Upper MS Valley, where a northwestward arching warm
front will be located. Here, surface dewpoints should reach the mid
70s F beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding 3500-4500 J/kg
MLCAPE. While several calibrated ML/AI guidance members depict
higher severe probabilities across this region, only Marginal risk probabilities have been introduced since the mid-level impulses
poised to track along this boundary are quite small and subtle,
rendering storm coverage highly questionable. Nonetheless, if a
storm can mature and become sustained, 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear with the strong instability may support a supercell or two
capable of mainly severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 19:31:12 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 011931
SWODY3
SPC AC 011930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging
gusts and perhaps some large hail, appear likely across portions of
the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. More isolated
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds appear
possible over the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the
upper Midwest Thursday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

Broader-scale troughing is forecast over the western CONUS with
low-amplitude ridging from the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes
into the Southeast. Between the ridge and an upper low over QC,
latest model guidance indicates the progression of a short-wave
trough and associated 40-50 kt jet streak from the lower Great Lakes
through the Mid-Atlantic and portions of New England. Other more
subtle disturbances are depicted within the periphery of the ridge
over the Great Lakes into the upper MS Valley.

At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast over the Dakotas
on Thursday with an associated warm front slowly lifting north
through the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. The boundary is
expected to stretch east through the Great Lakes into the
Mid-Atlantic with the specific location of the boundary dictated by
the extent of thunderstorm activity and associated convective
outflow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

...Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Coast...

One or multiple thunderstorm complexes may be ongoing Thursday
morning from the Great Lakes through the Northeast, aided by forcing
for ascent attendant to the previously mentioned mid-level
disturbances. The presence of the early-day storms leads to
uncertainty in the extent of air mass overturning that occurs, and
where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. As such,
the Marginal Risk probability envelope has been broadened slightly
over the Mid-Atlantic with the Slight Risk probabilities remaining
unchanged.

The overlap of 30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear with a moist and
potentially moderately to strongly unstable warm sector will
conditionally support supercell and bowing storm modes with an
attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail from Thursday
afternoon into evening.

...North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the upper Midwest...

A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates/EML is forecast to overly a
moist boundary layer, yielding a moderately to strongly unstable air
mass by afternoon in the vicinity of the warm front. The instability
will coincide with up to 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, conditionally
yielding a very favorable severe storm environment. However, capping
concerns and the timing of any weak disturbances cresting the ridge
axis limit predictability, with only an areal increase in the
Marginal Risk probabilities included in this forecast. A categorical
upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary in subsequent
forecasts.

..Mead.. 09/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 07:29:24 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are
expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
More isolated severe storms (with wind and hail) may occur over
parts of the Midwest.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will continue over the central and eastern U.S., with
upper troughs meandering over the Interior West and the Northeast. A
broad warm frontal boundary will be draped from parts of the Midwest
to the Atlantic coastline, overspread by deep-layer northwesterly
flow. Multiple embedded impulses will traverse this northwest flow
regime, promoting the development of thunderstorm clusters in the
process.

...Southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic...
The best chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be across
portions of southern WV to the NC shoreline on Friday. By afternoon, boundary-layer destabilization along a differential heating zone,
left behind by storms in preceding days, will promote renewed
thunderstorm development. Despite meager mid-level lapse rates, 70+
F surface dewpoints and warm temperatures exceeding 90 F will yield
widespread 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given stronger northwesterly flow
aloft, 30+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear will support
multicells and supercells capable of damaging gusts.

...Portions of the Midwest and OH Valley...
Rich low-level moisture along the warm front (i.e. 70s F dewpoints),
beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. While upper support will
be quite subtle at best, strong heating and minimal capping may
support isolated thunderstorm development along the front. Only
Marginal Risk probabilities were introduced given the expected
sparse and brief nature of the severe threat. However, any storms
that mature and become sustained will be capable of producing severe
wind or hail.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 19:24:36 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 021919
SWODY3
SPC AC 021918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging
gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on
Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and
large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into
night.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level ridge over central North America will undergo further
amplification this period with that feature bracketed by troughs
over the western CONUS and eastern Canada into the Northeast. As has
been the case over the past several days, subtle disturbances
embedded within the broader-scale flow regime will serve as foci for thunderstorm development. At the surface, a lee cyclone will evolve
over the northern High Plains with an associated surface front
stretching from the northern Plains through the upper Midwest to the
southern Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Lower Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic...

There is reasonably good agreement across the 12Z parameterized
models that scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning
across portions of the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes region in
association with an embedded vorticity maximum. Whether that
convection persists into afternoon remains uncertain; however, it
does appear that the mid-level disturbance will progress into the
Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a belt of 35-40 kt west-northwest flow
in the mid levels. Forcing for ascent associated with that
disturbance will promote renewed thunderstorm development by
afternoon along the effective surface front and within a moderately
unstable air mass. Sufficient vertical shear will exist to support
organized storm modes with the predominant hazard being damaging
wind gusts.

This forecast update will include a slight northward expansion of
the Slight Risk probabilities based on 12Z guidance.

...Midwest/Corn Belt...

In the wake of possible early-day storms described in the previous
section, steep mid-level lapse rates within the eastern fringe of an elevated-mixed layer (EML) will coincide with a moist boundary layer
to yield a moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon in
the vicinity of the surface front. The proximity to the building
mid-level ridge and resultant capping across the warm sector lead to considerable uncertainty in the extent and location of surface-based thunderstorm development Friday afternoon into night. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker than that expected on
Thursday, the degree of instability will conditionally support a
large hail and severe wind risk with any surface-based storms that
develop.

Marginal Risk probabilities will be maintained with this forecast
update due to the limited predictability in convective evolution.

..Mead.. 09/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 07:19:30 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 030719
SWODY3
SPC AC 030718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH CAROLINA
INTO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing scattered damaging gusts are possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. A couple
instances of severe wind/hail with isolated thunderstorms may also
occur across portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persevere across the Plains states, with upper
troughs remaining in place across the Interior West and East Coast.
Similar to Day 2, the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be
primarily constrained to the eastern CONUS, where subtle mid-level
impulses will overspread rich low-level moisture, contributing to
enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to encourage damaging wind
production with the stronger storms.

...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
At least one mid-level impulse will traverse the OH Valley to NC
corridor on Saturday, perhaps accompanied by a morning cluster of thunderstorms. Regardless, the impulse is poised to reach the lee of
the Appalachians by Saturday afternoon, where upper 60s to lower 70s
F surface dewpoints await. By this time, boundary layer mixing will
encourage either the intensification of ongoing storms with the
approaching impulse, the development of new storms, or both, all
along a differential heating zone left behind by previous day's
storms. 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place, along with 30+ kts
of effective bulk shear driven by modest northwesterly flow aloft.
Multicells are the expected storm mode, with severe gusts and
perhaps an instance or two of hail.

Farther to the northwest, strong surface heating along an effective
warm front, characterized by mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 6.5
C/km mid-level lapse rates (hence 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will
encourage isolated thunderstorm development across portions of the
OH Valley. Vertical shear and ascent should be relatively weak, so
the severe threat should be sparse. Nonetheless, any storms that
mature and sustain themselves may pose a severe wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 19:19:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 031918
SWODY3
SPC AC 031918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND FAR
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across
portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe
wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains
and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

A prominent, mid-level ridge will persist over the central U.S. with
troughs on either side, over the western CONUS and in the Northeast.
Similar to previous days, thunderstorm development will largely be
associated with subtle mid-level disturbances embedded within the
broader-scale pattern. One more notable perturbation is expected to
progress from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas on Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure is
forecast over the northern Plains with an attending boundary
extending through the Midwest to the southern Mid-Atlantic or
Carolinas.

...Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...

Latest model guidance is in good agreement in depicting a cluster of thunderstorms over portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley at
12Z Saturday, likely associated with the mid-level disturbance
mentioned above. It remains unclear whether any of the early-day
storms will persist into the afternoon. Those that do are likely to
intensify as they encounter a hot, moist, and moderately unstable
air mass present across portions of VA into the Carolinas.
Additional, in-situ storm development appears possible along the
primary front and lee trough. An increase in mid-level flow and
resultant deep-layer shear (up to 30-35 kt) is expected with the
arrival of the mid-level disturbance, suggesting the potential for
organized storm modes, with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Northern Plains...

Moderate to strong instability is forecast Saturday afternoon in the
vicinity of the surface low and attending front. The close proximity
to the mid-level ridge leads to uncertainty in convective evolution
through the forecast period. However, a number of models, both
ensemble and deterministic, indicate storm development during the
peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Given the degree of instability
and ample deep-layer shear, a few severe storms appear possible with
the primary hazards being large hail and severe wind gusts.

..Mead.. 09/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 06:37:42 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 040637
SWODY3
SPC AC 040636

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts are possible across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
and early evening. A more uncertain and conditional risk for severe
wind and hail is expected across parts of the northern Plains.

...Northern Plains...

An amplified upper ridge will remain in place from the central
Plains to the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Some modest weakening of the
ridge may occur as an upper shortwave trough digs across the
Northwest and weak shortwave disturbances crest the ridge through
the period. At the surface, low pressure will persist across the
western Dakotas. Boundary layer moisture will spread across eastern
MT on the back side of the surface low, while deep low-level
moisture extends across ND into eastern SD and the Mid-MO Valley
along another surface boundary. Capping will be a main limiting
factor for storm development. However, if the cap can be overcome,
or if elevated convection develops during the day into evening,
strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible given supercell
wind profiles and corridor of moderate to strong instability.

Deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to increase with the
approach of the Northwest upper shortwave trough late in the period
across parts of the northern Rockies toward the northern High
Plains. This could also support possible severe convection overnight
into parts of MT, but timing and overlap of stronger shear and
better instability remains uncertain.

Overall, severe potential appears conditional on Sunday across
portions of the northern Plains. But, if storms can develop, some
risk for severe wind/hail will be possible.

...Southeast...

Weak northwesterly flow aloft will persist on Sunday as a surface
front develops south/southwest into the Southeast. Ahead of the
surface boundary, a very moist airmass will support a corridor of
moderate to strong instability focused across southern GA.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Vertical
shear will remain weak, but high PW values could support sporadic
wet microbursts and locally strong wind gusts. Some guidance
suggests sufficient clustering and outflow consolidation could occur
such that a forward propagating cluster could spread south/southwest
across the area. If this occurs, damaging wind potential could
increase.

..Leitman.. 09/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 19:30:22 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is
expected across parts of the northern Plains.

...Southeast...
Most guidance shows a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving across
the Southeast during the day on Sunday. Moderate to strong
instability is forecast south of a cold front across the region. The
greatest instability is anticipated near the coast where low to mid
70s dewpoints are likely. Mid-level flow will be quite weak, which
should limit overall storm organization. However, the combination of
the mid-level shortwave trough and the frontal forcing amid an
uncapped and strongly unstable environment should result in a
cluster of storms capable of water-loaded downbursts. A Slight Risk
has been added for the region where the greatest storm coverage is
expected.

...Northern Plains...
The ridge across the Plains will start to break down on Sunday with
a lee cyclone developing across eastern Montana. Moderate to strong
instability will be present across the northern Plains, potentially
with some stronger mid-level flow as the ridge breaks down. Storms
will be possible along the trough from eastern Wyoming into northern
Colorado, along the warm front near the Canadian border and into
northern North Dakota, and extending into western Minnesota, and
northwest of the low across eastern Montana where some instability
is expected to develop. Within this broader area, there will likely
be a few preferred zones that will eventually need a Slight Risk.
However, at this time, it is unclear where these preferred zones
will be. Greater resolution of the pattern evolution should make
these regions more clear in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 09/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 06:39:18 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 050639
SWODY3
SPC AC 050637

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

...Nebraska into the Dakotas and Minnesota...

An upper shortwave trough will eject east/northeast from the
Intermountain West to the northern Plains on Monday. Strong
mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the region ahead of the
trough. At the surface, a low over eastern MT will develop northeast
into the Canadian Prairies, and a trailing cold front will push east
across portions of NE/SD/ND. A moist airmass will be in place ahead
of the front, promoting areas of moderate instability. Vertically
veering wind profiles, and strengthening midlevel southwesterly
flow, will generate effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt,
supporting organized thunderstorms. While cooling aloft will result
in modestly steep lapse rates, warmer temperatures may linger around
850 mb, leading to capping concerns. Nevertheless, even elevated
storms will pose a risk for hail, and depending on storm mode,
strong wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 19:46:54 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 051945
SWODY3
SPC AC 051944

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

... Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes ...

A mid-level shortwave trough will lift northeast on Monday,
impinging on the central US ridge. Strong southwesterly mid-level
flow associated with the trough will overspread an increasingly warm
and moist low-level airmass across the north-central US. Given
low-level flow will be more southerly, the resulting vertically
veering profiles will result in effective shear ranging from 35
knots to more than 50 knots. Forecast soundings indicate that an
elevated mixed layer should advect over the Plains during the day
resulting in capping issues for most of the afternoon. However, as
cooler mid-level temperatures overspread the unstable and sheared
airmass, afternoon thunderstorms will at least be possible. These
storms should pose a threat for large hail and, if the storms can
tap into the boundary layer, strong thunderstorm winds. As the
low-level jet increases during the evening, an increase in storm
coverage is expected, with perhaps one or more MCSs evolving across
portions of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Isolated large hail
and perhaps damaging winds will be possible.

..Marsh.. 09/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 06:23:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 060622
SWODY3
SPC AC 060621

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into
the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper trough will move from the northern Plains to the Great
Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a swath of enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread the Upper Midwest. At the
surface, low pressure over Manitoba will continue east/northeast
through the period, with a trailing cold front sweeping east across
the northern/central Plains and Upper MS Valley. A moist airmass
will be in place ahead of the front, and weak to moderate
destabilization is forecast. Deep-layer flow will largely remain
parallel to the surface boundary, but sufficient shear will be
present for some storm organization. The north and east extent of
severe potential is a bit uncertain given concern over
inhibition/timing and modest instability. However, given the
strength of deep-layer southwesterly flow, some severe risk should
extend along the length of the surface front from the Upper Midwest
into the central Plains. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary
concern with this activity from late afternoon into the nighttime
hours.

..Leitman.. 09/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 19:28:00 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 061927
SWODY3
SPC AC 061926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into
the Upper Midwest.

... Central Plains to the Upper Midwest ...

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of
the Upper Midwest at the start of the forecast period. These storms
will be primarily driven by strong warm-air advection along and
ahead of a surface cold front moving east across the region in
association with a short-wave trough moving across the southern
Canadian Prairies. These morning storms may pose a marginal risk for
hail and wind before weakening during the day as the low-level jet
veers and weakens.

In the wake of the morning convection, diurnal heating of a moist
airmass south of the residual surface boundary will result an
unstable airmass by late afternoon. Large scale forcing for ascent
along the boundary will be nebulous so local-scale processes will
likely govern if and where afternoon storms may develop. Vertical
shear decreases with southward extent, but a threat of large hail
and damaging winds will be possible with any afternoon
thunderstorms.

By late evening into the overnight another short-wave trough will
quickly race east into the Plains. In response to this feature, the
low-level jet will once again increase, providing some forcing for
ascent along isentropic surfaces along and north of the front. These
storms should be able to tap into elevated instability and
sufficient cloud-layer shear to support a threat for isolated wind
and hail overnight.

..Marsh.. 09/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 06:36:52 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 070636
SWODY3
SPC AC 070635

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the Midwest on Wednesday.

...Midwest...

An upper trough will progress eastward across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow over the region. At the
surface, a cold front will shift southeast through the period,
becoming positioned from the Upper Ohio Valley to the TX Panhandle
by Thursday morning. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in
place. Midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly
steep, but pockets of weak to moderate instability are forecast,
particularly across the Lower MO Valley into OH. Morning showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of the cold
front from Iowa into Lower MI. As the front progresses southeast
through the afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorm
development is expected across the destabilizing warm sector.

Deep-layer flow is expected to largely remain parallel to the
surface boundary. This environment should largely favor a more
linear storm mode and convection could become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized
convection and damaging winds appear possible within corridors of
greater instability into Wednesday evening/early Thursday.

..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 18:46:44 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 071846
SWODY3
SPC AC 071845

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

...Central Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley...
Moderate instability is expected as temperatures warm into the 90s
and low 100s ahead of a stalled front from the Plains to the Ozarks
on Wednesday. However, despite the strong heating and moderate
instability, very weak shear (less than 20 knots) should limit storm organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible amid the
strong heating and steep lapse rates, but a more focused overall
severe weather threat does not appear likely.

...Upper Ohio Valley into New York...
A mid-level trough is forecast to cross the northern Great Lakes on
Wednesday and the associated mid-level jet streak will overspread
the Great Lakes. Most forecast guidance shows instability focused
south of the stronger mid-level flow with only very weak instability
across western New York where the stronger mid-level flow will be
present. Therefore, the displacement of the stronger mid-level flow
and instability should limit a more organized severe weather threat,
but some stronger instability in the Ohio Valley may support
isolated damaging wind gusts, and a more conditional threat may
exist across western New York if sufficient instability can develop.

..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 18:50:26 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 071849
SWODY3
SPC AC 071848

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

CORRECTED FOR MISSING HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

...Central Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley...
Moderate instability is expected as temperatures warm into the 90s
and low 100s ahead of a stalled front from the Plains to the Ozarks
on Wednesday. However, despite the strong heating and moderate
instability, very weak shear (less than 20 knots) should limit storm organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible amid the
strong heating and steep lapse rates, but a more focused overall
severe weather threat does not appear likely.

...Upper Ohio Valley into New York...
A mid-level trough is forecast to cross the northern Great Lakes on
Wednesday and the associated mid-level jet streak will overspread
the Great Lakes. Most forecast guidance shows instability focused
south of the stronger mid-level flow with only very weak instability
across western New York where the stronger mid-level flow will be
present. Therefore, the displacement of the stronger mid-level flow
and instability should limit a more organized severe weather threat,
but some stronger instability in the Ohio Valley may support
isolated damaging wind gusts, and a more conditional threat may
exist across western New York if sufficient instability can develop.

..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 06:33:22 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 080632
SWODY3
SPC AC 080632

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

...Discussion...

An upper trough will migrate across the Northeast on Thursday, while
a second upper trough digs southward across the northwestern U.S.
Stronger flow associated with these features will remain confined to
the northern Rockies vicinity and over New England. High pressure
will build over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic region in the wake of a
prior cold frontal passage. A seasonally moist boundary layer will
be in place from the central/southern High Plains through the southern/southeastern U.S. Pockets of stronger heating and modest destabilization across the warm sector will support scattered
thunderstorm development. However, generally weak vertical shear
will limit organized severe potential, especially given a lack of
focus for severe storm development.

The exception may be with a strong storm or two across the
central/southern High Plains in a post-frontal upslope flow regime.
A stalled front will become diffuse across the area on Thursday, but
vertically veering wind profiles could result in some modestly
enhanced vertical shear. Some guidance shows early day convection
and cloud cover across this area, resulting in uncertainty in storm
coverage during the afternoon and evening. Furthermore, lapse rates
will remain modest and low-level flow will be weak, precluding
severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 18:50:32 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 081850
SWODY3
SPC AC 081849

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

...Discussion...
As a mid-level trough moves into the western Atlantic on Thursday,
surface high pressure will build into the Midwest/Great Lakes in its
wake. South of this high pressure center a front will extend from
Virginia to the central Plains. An expansive area of precipitation
is expected along this front at the beginning of the period which
should result in lesser instability, particularly east of the
Appalachians. Farther west, moderate instability is expected near
the front from the Lower Ohio Valley to the southern High Plains.
Mid-level flow (and thus deep-layer shear) will be weak across much
of this zone. Therefore, greater instability and storm clustering
will likely be necessary for a marginal severe weather threat. This
may occur across portions of the Ozarks or the southern High Plains,
but the signal is weak at this time. Therefore, no severe weather
probabilities are warranted.

A mid-level trough will translate quickly eastward across the
Northwest on Thursday with ascent overspreading north-central
Montana by Thursday night. A few fast-moving storms are expected
across north-central Montana late Thursday night and early Friday
morning amid weak instability. Despite the dynamic system, weak
instability and unfavorable diurnal timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 06:25:50 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 090625
SWODY3
SPC AC 090624

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow
and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface
cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas
through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper
Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime
hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward
advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening
midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of
moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical
shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability
may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker.
Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further
south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk.
Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard
with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 07:00:56 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 090700
SWODY3
SPC AC 090659

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow
and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface
cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas
through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper
Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime
hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward
advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening
midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of
moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical
shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability
may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker.
Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further
south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk.
Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard
with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 19:32:18 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 091932
SWODY3
SPC AC 091930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Discussion...
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Northern Plains on
Friday, as an upper low drops south along the Pacific Northwest. A
pre-frontal trough will develop into northern MN, extending into
eastern SD and central NE by late afternoon. Ahead of this trough,
strong heating will occur from NE into SD, with a cooler boundary
layer into central MN.

Temperatures aloft will cool with the upper wave, resulting in
moderately steep lapse rates aloft. Midlevel wind speeds of 20-40
kt, combined with low-level southerlies (including 40 kt at 850 mb
late in the day) will favor a few supercells initially before storms
become linear along the advancing cold front.

Forecast soundings indicate large hail will be likely with the
initial cellular activity, though shear in the mid to upper levels
will not be particularly strong. As such, will not add any sig
hatching for hail.

A brief tornado may occur with initial supercells, particularly from
eastern SD into western MN where low-level shear will be strongest.
Otherwise, damaging winds will be possible through the evening as
storms move northeast across MN.

..Jewell.. 09/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 20:22:20 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 092022
SWODY3
SPC AC 092020

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Discussion...
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Northern Plains on
Friday, as an upper low drops south along the Pacific Northwest. A
pre-frontal trough will develop into northern MN, extending into
eastern SD and central NE by late afternoon. Ahead of this trough,
strong heating will occur from NE into SD, with a cooler boundary
layer into central MN.

Temperatures aloft will cool with the upper wave, resulting in
moderately steep lapse rates aloft. Midlevel wind speeds of 20-40
kt, combined with low-level southerlies (including 40 kt at 850 mb
late in the day) will favor a few supercells initially before storms
become linear along the advancing cold front.

Forecast soundings indicate large hail will be likely with the
initial cellular activity, though shear in the mid to upper levels
will not be particularly strong. As such, will not add any sig
hatching for hail.

A brief tornado may occur with initial supercells, particularly from
eastern SD into western MN where low-level shear will be strongest.
Otherwise, damaging winds will be possible through the evening as
storms move northeast across MN.

..Jewell.. 09/09/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 06:27:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 100626
SWODY3
SPC AC 100625

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

...Central Plains to southern IA/northern MO...

Broad upper troughing will overspread the Great Lakes to the
Northeast while shortwave upper ridging develops over the high
Plains ahead of another upper trough moving into the Northwest. This
pattern is will keep any stronger westerly flow aloft across the
northern tier of the U.S. However, a cold front is expected to
extend from the western Great Lakes into northern KS by midday. The
front will gradually move south/southeast across IA into northern
MO, while the western extent of the boundary stalls and weakens over
KS. A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface
boundary from KS into the Mid-MS Valley while a plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates spread eastward across the region. This will
result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability from central
KS into southern IA/northern MO. Vertical shear will be modest, but
sufficient for at least transient organized convection. Hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop
within the weakly forced regime along the front. Some guidance
suggests additional convection may develop along the stalled
boundary across KS during the nighttime hours as a southwesterly
low-level jet increases. If this occurs, some potential for MCS
development will exist.

..Leitman.. 09/10/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 19:04:28 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 101904
SWODY3
SPC AC 101903

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

...Discussion...
A large upper low/trough will progress eastward across northern
Manitoba and Ontario, with stronger flow aloft over the Northern
Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Much of that area will become stable
due to high pressure building southward into NE/IA.

The wind shift with the associated cold front will push into KS and
northern MO, beneath the southern fringe of the 30 kt midlevel
westerlies. At the surface, strong heating will occur south of the
cold front, with gradual height rises.

While predictability is low, isolated strong to perhaps severe
storms cannot be ruled out near the cold front where mid 60s F
dewpoints will persist, and CIN should be minimal at peak heating.
MUCAPE of 2000+ J/kg seems reasonable, and the steep lapse rate
profiles along with winds lightly veering with height should support
locally strong to severe gusts with multicellular storm mode. It is
uncertain how many storms may form due to the upper ridging.

..Jewell.. 09/10/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 07:32:18 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 110731
SWODY3
SPC AC 110730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER CORRIDOR FROM NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather
appears possible across parts of the Northeast into Ohio Valley, and
across parts of the north central Great Plains, Sunday into Sunday
night.

...Discussion...
An initially notable mid-level low inland of the Pacific Northwest
coast by 12Z Sunday is forecast to remain progressive through this
period, though it may slowly begin to devolve into an open trough
while accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies in response to a
short wave digging into northwestern portions of the Canadian
Prairies. Within the downstream westerlies, models indicate that
short wave ridging will build across the northern U.S. Great Plains
and adjacent Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest/adjacent
northwestern Ontario, while downstream troughing digs across Quebec
through the lower Great Lakes region.

The primary surface cyclone associated with eastern troughing is
forecast to migrate from northern Quebec into the Labrador Sea by
late Sunday night. As it does, the trailing cold front probably
will advance southeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late
Sunday afternoon, before overspreading the northern Atlantic
Seaboard through upper Ohio Valley by the end of the period.
Westward through the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys into the
central Great Plains, it appears that this front may stall near or
just south of the stronger westerlies.

...Parts of western New England into the Ohio Valley...
Models vary concerning the degree of pre-frontal destabilization and
the extent to which this may coincide with strengthening of westerly
flow in the 700-500 mb layer, downstream of the digging short wave
trough. However, particularly to the lee of the lower Great Lakes
toward the northern Mid Atlantic vicinity, it appears that forcing
for ascent will become increasingly conducive to at least scattered thunderstorm development by or shortly after peak daytime heating.
As this occurs, developing storms will probably be accompanied by at
least some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening Sunday
evening.

...North central Great Plains/Middle Missouri Valley vicinity...
The degree to which cool/stable boundary-layer air remains
entrenched across much of Nebraska into parts of northern Kansas, to
the south of the westerlies and beneath a remnant plume of warm
elevated mixed-layer air, remains unclear. Between the cool
boundary layer, which may be relatively shallow, and the base of the
capping elevated mixed layer, it does appear that a seasonably moist
air mass retreating northward through the region will contribute to
moderate to large CAPE.

Although notable spread exists within/among the various model
output, there appears potential for at least isolated to widely
scattered strong to severe storm development in moistening
southeasterly low-level flow across and to the southwest of the
Black Hills vicinity by late Sunday afternoon, with the approach of
the short wave trough. Subsequent development eastward into the
Great Plains remains more uncertain, but, by late Sunday night,
stronger storm development seems most likely to focus on the nose of
a strengthening southerly low-level jet, near the northeastern
periphery of the plume of elevated mixed-layer air, across/northeast
of the middle Missouri Valley. This may be accompanied by at least
a risk for severe hail.

..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 19:22:34 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 111922
SWODY3
SPC AC 111921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather
may occur across parts of the Northeast, and across parts of the
north central Great Plains Sunday into Sunday night.

...Ohio into the Northeast...
A large upper low/trough will push across eastern Canada on Sunday,
with a strong speed max aloft spreading across the Great Lakes late
in the day. A cold front will push toward the OH Valley and Lower
Great Lakes late in the day, with a moist and marginally unstable
air mass ahead of it. Areas of heating and lift near the boundary
should support scattered afternoon/evening storms, and deep-layer
shear of 30 to perhaps 40 kt could support a degree of organization.
Lapse rates aloft appear to be poor overall, suggesting only a
Marginal Risk of damaging gusts or hail will exist.

...Northern Plains...
High pressure will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Great
Lakes as shortwave ridging occurs over the Plains during the day. A
compact yet deep upper low is then forecast to move into the
northern Rockies, with height falls increasing over the northern
High Plains Sunday night.

The steeper low-level lapse rates will be confined to the higher
terrain from east-central WY to the Front Range in CO, with
generally stable low levels to the east due to high pressure. After
a days worth of heating, isolated surface-based storms may occur
late over eastern WY, with additional activity developing within the
warm advection regime as the low-level jet increases over the
central Plains. The overall threat appear minimal, and likely in the
form of marginal hail.

..Jewell.. 09/11/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 07:15:42 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 120715
SWODY3
SPC AC 120714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central
Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of weak mid/upper troughing continuing to slowly dig
across the Pacific coast, models indicate that mid/upper ridging
(centered across the Southeast) may become increasingly prominent
across the southern Great Plains into the lower Great Lakes and
northern Mid Atlantic Seaboard through this period. To the north of
this ridging, and in advance of a short wave impulse digging through
the Canadian Prairies, a notable remnant mid-level cyclonic
circulation is forecast to accelerate more rapidly east-northeast of
the northern U.S. Rockies, across the international border into
northwestern Ontario by late Monday night. It appears that this
will be accompanied by modest surface cyclogenesis, and considerable strengthening of south to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric wind
fields across much of the northern U.S. Great Plains through Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.

While an associated increase in vertical shear will contribute to an environment conditionally supportive of organized severe weather
potential, destabilization within the warm sector remains much more
uncertain. There does remain a general consensus among the various
model output that a northward retreating near-surface baroclinic
zone may provide the primary focus for stronger convective
development, generally near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
from parts of eastern Nebraska northeastward toward the Upper
Midwest. However, even if the maintenance of a relatively cold,
stable boundary layer along this zone, as depicted in the latest NAM
forecast soundings, is too extreme, it remains unclear the extent to
which thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to the risk for
severe weather.

..Kerr.. 09/12/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 19:13:56 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 121913
SWODY3
SPC AC 121912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central
Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Monday
with a strengthening 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak. The surface
pattern will feature a surface low across the Canadian Prairies and
a secondary weaker surface low across the central Plains. A moist
airmass will advect northward to the east of the surface trough with
mid to upper 60s dewpoints advecting into Nebraska and Iowa.

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota amid moderate isentropic
ascent. The primary forecast concern for Monday will be northward
progression of the surface boundary across eastern Nebraska and
Iowa. Guidance varies with the northward recovery in the wake of
morning activity, but forecast soundings in regions where this
recovery does occur show a conditional supercell environment with
the threat for all severe weather hazards.

Given the influence of morning convection, the exact location of the
greatest threat will likely shift in the coming days. However, given
that most guidance showed a convective signal aligned with a
conditionally favorable supercell environment in the vicinity of
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, added a small Slight Risk across
this region to account for this threat.

An elevated hail threat may persist into Monday evening farther
northeast given a strong low-level jet and moderate elevated
instability. Some surface based storm threat could continue into the
overnight hours along the boundary, but most guidance shows storms
north of the boundary during the overnight period.

Storms will likely form within the well-mixed environment across
eastern Colorado and western Kansas Monday afternoon. Weak shear
should limit storm organization, but strong heating and steep lapse
rates may support isolated severe wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/12/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 07:05:48 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 130705
SWODY3
SPC AC 130704

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN A CORRIDOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to
southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley
Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
A deamplifying mid-level short wave trough and associated surface
cyclone are forecast to continue an east-northeastward migration
through this period, generally across the remainder of northwestern
Ontario through much of northern Quebec by late Tuesday night. In
the wake of the cyclone, an initial low-level baroclinic zone across
the lower Great Lakes region through the lower Missouri Valley and
central Great Plains may make some southward progression, before
stalling and perhaps retreating northward beneath the building
northwestern periphery of prominent ridging still centered across
the Southeast. There is variance among the guidance concerning this
latter development, and the evolution of digging upstream mid-level
troughing across the northern Intermountain Region and Pacific
Coast.

...Southern Great Lakes through central Great Plains...
Mainly where mid-level heights remain suppressed, prior to the onset
of the mid-level height rises, coincident with daytime
boundary-layer destabilization along and southeast of the slow
moving frontal zone, a corridor of increasing, scattered
thunderstorm development appears possible through mid to late
Tuesday afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates may support the
evolution of moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+
J/kg, near the modest southern fringe of the mid-level westerlies,
which may still include speeds of 30+ kts in the 700-500 mb layer.
A warm layer in mid/upper levels may tend to suppress large hail,
but thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lapse rates of
potential wet-bulb temperatures in lower/mid-levels could contribute
to a few downbursts and developing cold pools with a few strong
gusts into Tuesday evening.

..Kerr.. 09/13/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 19:26:22 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 131926
SWODY3
SPC AC 131925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to
southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley
Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough will move into Ontario on Tuesday with the
mid-level ridge building in its wake across the Midwest and into the
Upper Midwest. Beneath this ridge, a cold front will move slowly
southeastward from southern Iowa and northern Kansas at the
beginning of the period, to northern Oklahoma to central Missouri by
the end of the period. Dewpoints will increase into the low to mid
70s south of the front with weak to moderate instability
anticipated. Forcing will be somewhat nebulous given the rising
heights aloft and weak convergence along the slow-moving, decaying
front.

Nonetheless, moderate to potentially strong instability and an
uncapped airmass should support some thunderstorms capable of severe
wind gusts. Some lingering 30 to 40 knot mid-level flow is forecast
to remain across portions of the warm sector Friday afternoon
(particularly across northern Illinois/Indiana) which may aid in
storm organization, but warm air aloft and a lack of clear supercell
mode should limit the overall hail threat.

..Bentley.. 09/13/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 07:26:54 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 140726
SWODY3
SPC AC 140725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible (i.e, less than
5 percent probabilities) across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

...Discussion...
It appears that an initially digging short wave trough along the
Pacific coast will contribute to the evolution of a mid/upper low
centered across northern California by or shortly after the
beginning of this period. There it is forecast to generally remain,
cut off from the stronger westerlies confined to the northern
mid-latitudes.

A couple of notable short wave perturbations will remain progressive
within a stronger confluent mid/upper regime across the eastern
Canadian Provinces through northern mid-latitude Atlantic, including
one forecast to translate east of Newfoundland and Labrador and
another digging through northern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.

In lower latitudes, mid-level ridging likely will remain prominent
across much of the central and southern Great Plains through
northern Mid Atlantic. More uncertainty exists concerning an
easterly wave approaching the Florida Peninsula and a possible
mid-level perturbation suppressing the ridging across parts of the
lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

Based on current model output, a remnant surface frontal zone across
the Ohio into lower Missouri Valleys will remain a focus for higher
boundary layer moisture content and the development of moderate CAPE
with insolation. However, there is spread concerning the degree to
which this front remains quasi-stationary, or begins to return
northward toward at least a bit more of a favorably sheared regime
for organized convection. Given this uncertainty, and the otherwise marginal/isolated nature of the anticipated severe weather
potential, severe probabilities for Wednesday through Wednesday
night appear less than 5 percent at this time.

..Kerr.. 09/14/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 19:17:24 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 141917
SWODY3
SPC AC 141916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
on Wednesday.

...Discussion...
Stronger winds aloft will extend from the Northern Plains into the
Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday as a large upper ridge expands across
much of the central to southeastern states. A surface high will also
exist over the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes which will keep the
more favorable instability well south of the stronger flow/shear.
While a secondary shortwave trough will swing across central Canada
and into the northern Plains late, instability should be minimal
that far north.

The greatest chance of thunderstorms will be near a weak/stalled
front from the Central Plains eastward across the Midwest and OH
Valley, where dewpoints of 65-70 F will be common. Early day
thunderstorms across this same zone will likely dissipate during the
day, with scattered redevelopment near peak heating. Given the
generally poor lapse rates aloft and weak shear, the severe storm
threat appears low.

..Jewell.. 09/14/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 07:31:30 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 150731
SWODY3
SPC AC 150730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears
negligible for Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that mid-level ridging will remain prominent across much
of the central and southern Great Plains, middle and lower
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through this period. A wave migrating
on its southeastern periphery may gradually overspread portions of
the south Atlantic Seaboard by late Thursday night. To its
northwest, a cut-off low, initially inland of the northern
California coast, may elongate north-northeastward through portions
of the northern Intermountain Region and Great Basin.

Within the stronger westerlies, consolidating large-scale mid-level
troughing is forecast to dig through northern Ontario, Quebec and
adjacent portions of the Northeast. It appears that this will be
accompanied by a developing area of surface low pressure, trailed by
a reinforcing cool intrusion across the upper Great Lakes region and
adjacent portions of the Upper Midwest. A preceding front may
progress southeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic and upper
into middle Ohio Valley, perhaps overtaking portions of an initially quasi-stationary boundary across the lower Ohio through lower/middle
Missouri Valley vicinity.

Guidance suggests that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture
content along the southern-most baroclinic zone will once again
contribute to sizable CAPE with insolation Thursday. However,
generally warm thermodynamic profiles and weak deep-layer mean
flow/shear probably will continue to inhibit the risk for organized
severe thunderstorm activity.

If forcing for ascent, associated with a subtle perturbation
migrating through the northern periphery of the ridge, can support a sufficiently upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, then the
environment might be conducive to the evolution of a meso-beta scale
cyclonic circulation with strengthening rear inflow and potential to
produce strong to severe surface gusts. While the potential for
this remains uncertain at the present time, trends will continue to
be monitored in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 09/15/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 19:12:02 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 151911
SWODY3
SPC AC 151910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low on Thursday.

...Discussion...
On Thursday, a large upper trough will move into eastern Canada,
with height falls with the base of the trough moving across the
Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, heights will fall
over the Southeast as the upper high center shifts back west into
the southern Plains. To the west, an upper low will drift from
northern CA into southern OR, with cool temperatures aloft over much
of the Great Basin.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains
to Great Lakes, with a weak surface trough extending from the
central Plains into the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic. Upper
60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along this zone, resulting
in areas of moderate instability. Weaker instability will exist
ahead of the Pacific Northwest low, and ahead of a cold front
pushing across northern NV, eastern OR, and western ID.

Severe storm chances appear relatively low over the Pacific
Northwest given weak instability and marginal shear, while the zone
from MO into PA suffers from poor lapse rates aloft and/or minimal
shear.

..Jewell.. 09/15/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 07:31:38 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 160731
SWODY3
SPC AC 160730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
...WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the central Great Plains
through southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley late Friday
afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
weather.

...Discussion...
A vigorous short wave trough in the westerlies is forecast to dig
across the northern Atlantic Seaboard accompanied by significant
surface cyclogenesis near and east of the Canadian Maritimes. In
the wake of the cyclone, it appears that a cold front will continue
advancing offshore and through the southern Mid Atlantic Seaboard.
A trailing low-level baroclinic zone may remain more or less
quasi-stationary across the lower Ohio and lower/mid Missouri
Valleys into northern high plains, beneath a weaker belt of
westerlies in the southern mid-latitudes.

Within this regime, a mid-level trough and embedded low are forecast
to slowly progress across the Intermountain West through Rockies
vicinity, preceded by a more subtle perturbation crossing the middle
Missouri Valley. The latter impulse, and another westward migrating
wave across the Florida Peninsula vicinity may contribute to further suppression of persistent mid-level ridging, which may otherwise
maintain a considerable influence across a shrinking corridor
centered across the southern Great Plains through Tennessee Valley.

...Central Great Plains through southern Mid Missouri Valley...
Convective potential remains uncertain for Friday through Friday
night. However, latest model output suggests that the mid-level
perturbation overspreading the middle Missouri Valley will be
accompanied by a moderate jet including 30-40 kt southwesterly flow
in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading the central Great Plains
through upper Mississippi Valley.

As insolation contributes to a more strongly heated and deeply mixed
boundary layer along modestly deepening surface troughing
coincident with the low-level jet axis, there may be sufficient
moisture to support scattered thunderstorm development capable of
producing a few strong downbursts across parts of northwestern
Kansas through south central Nebraska late Friday afternoon and
evening.

Closer to a weak developing frontal wave near the Missouri River,
roughly between Omaha and Sioux City, seasonably high boundary-layer
moisture content along a warm frontal zone to its south may support
a corridor of sizable CAPE and potential for much more vigorous
thunderstorm development. Lower/mid-tropospheric inhibition might
remain an issue concerning boundary-layer based thunderstorm
development, but a late afternoon/early evening supercell and small
upscale growing cluster do not appear out of the question, before
storms become elevated while spreading southeastward through
portions of central Iowa during the evening.

..Kerr.. 09/16/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 19:30:10 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 161929
SWODY3
SPC AC 161928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible from eastern Nebraska into Iowa
and northern Kansas, mainly Friday afternoon/evening.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel high will persist over TX and vicinity as the current
closed low over northern CA begins to progress eastward across the
northern Great Basin. Around the northern periphery of the TX
midlevel high, there is the potential for an MCV to emerge from
overnight convection late Thursday into Friday morning near the mid
MO Valley (NE/IA), with an associated weak wave along a slow-moving
baroclinic zone. Assuming an MCV develops, some enhancement to wind
profiles and associated vertical shear can be expected, which would
support some organized/supercell storm potential in a narrow zone
along the path of the MCV. Higher-based thunderstorm development
may also occur along the trailing front/wind shift into KS where
strong surface heating and deep mixing will favor inverted-V
profiles and at least isolated strong-severe outflow gusts.

Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will again occur across the
central/northern Rockies downstream from the Great Basin midlevel
trough. A few pockets of stronger surface heating/destabilization
could coincide with at least 30 kt midlevel flow and support the
low-end potential for strong outflow gusts. This area will be
monitored in later updates, but the severe threat appears to be too
marginal to introduce severe probabilities this far in advance.

..Thompson.. 09/16/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 07:31:50 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 170731
SWODY3
SPC AC 170730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong storms posing some risk for
severe wind and hail are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi Valley into central and southern Great Plains, and east
of the Front Range, Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
The stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern
mid-latitudes, with mid-level troughing forecast to dig across
Hudson Bay, Ontario and Quebec, downstream of broad ridging
overspreading the Canadian Prairies, and in the wake of a
significant cyclone migrating away from the Canadian Maritimes. In
response to these developments, it appears that cool surface ridging
will be maintained to the east of the southern Appalachians, while
the associated high center shifts off the northern Atlantic
Seaboard. Another modest high is forecast to begin shifting across
the central Canadian/U.S. border through much of the northern Great
Plains, Upper Midwest and adjacent upper Great Lakes by late
Saturday night.

This will be preceded by a notable cold front advancing slowly
southward into/across the Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys and
central Great Plains, beneath a weaker belt of westerlies across the
southern mid-latitudes. Within this regime, broad mid-level
troughing is forecast to continue a slow eastward progression across
the Rockies through central Great Plains, downstream of weak
troughing slowly approaching the California coast.

Mid-level ridging downstream of the lead trough will become
increasingly suppressed across the southeastern Great Plains through
lower to middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. A perturbation along
it southeastern periphery may continue slowly west-southwestward
across Florida and the northeastern Gulf Basin.

...Front Range vicinity into middle Mississippi Valley...
Generally warm thermodynamic profiles and modest to weak wind
vertical shear to the east of the Rockies will continue to limit the
severe weather potential, but isolated to widely scattered strong
thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe wind
and/or hail appear possible in a few evolving regimes Saturday into
Saturday night.

Convection with potential to produce strong surface gusts may be
supported by the evolution of a very warm and deeply mixed boundary
layer by late afternoon within weak pre-frontal surface troughing
across parts of eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas South Plains
Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas.

Seasonably high moisture content and lift along the low-level
baroclinic zone across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valleys
may support an upscale growing cluster or clusters of storms which
could organize sufficiently to support a period or two of strong
surface gusts.

Although the mid-level cold core may tend to remain to the northwest
of the region through the period, cooling aloft across and southeast
of the Front Range, coupled with moistening southeasterly
near-surface flow, may still contribute to favorable thermdodynamic
profiles for a few storms capable of producing severe hail and wind,
in the presence of modest shear late Saturday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 09/17/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 07:41:36 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 170740
SWODY3
SPC AC 170739

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong storms posing some risk for
severe wind and hail are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi Valley into central and southern Great Plains, and east
of the Front Range, Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
The stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern
mid-latitudes, with mid-level troughing forecast to dig across
Hudson Bay, Ontario and Quebec, downstream of broad ridging
overspreading the Canadian Prairies, and in the wake of a
significant cyclone migrating away from the Canadian Maritimes. In
response to these developments, it appears that cool surface ridging
will be maintained to the east of the southern Appalachians, while
the associated high center shifts off the northern Atlantic
Seaboard. Another modest high is forecast to begin shifting across
the central Canadian/U.S. border through much of the northern Great
Plains, Upper Midwest and adjacent upper Great Lakes by late
Saturday night.

This will be preceded by a notable cold front advancing slowly
southward into/across the Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys and
central Great Plains, beneath a weaker belt of westerlies across the
southern mid-latitudes. Within this regime, broad mid-level
troughing is forecast to continue a slow eastward progression across
the Rockies through central Great Plains, downstream of weak
troughing slowly approaching the California coast.

Mid-level ridging downstream of the lead trough will become
increasingly suppressed across the southeastern Great Plains through
lower to middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. A perturbation along
it southeastern periphery may continue slowly west-southwestward
across Florida and the northeastern Gulf Basin.

...Front Range vicinity into middle Mississippi Valley...
Generally warm thermodynamic profiles and modest to weak vertical
shear to the east of the Rockies will continue to limit the severe
weather potential, but isolated to widely scattered strong
thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe wind
and/or hail appears possible in a few evolving regimes Saturday into
Saturday night.

Convection with potential to produce strong surface gusts may be
supported by the evolution of a very warm and deeply mixed boundary
layer by late afternoon, within weak pre-frontal surface troughing
across parts of eastern New Mexico, the Texas South Plains and
Panhandle, and northwestern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas.

Seasonably high moisture content and lift along the low-level
baroclinic zone across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valleys
may support an upscale growing cluster or clusters of storms, which
could organize sufficiently to support a period or two of strong
surface gusts.

Although the mid-level cold core may tend to remain to the northwest
of the region through the period, cooling aloft across and southeast
of the Front Range, coupled with moistening southeasterly
near-surface flow, may still contribute to favorable thermodynamic
profiles for a few storms capable of producing severe hail and wind,
in the presence of modest shear late Saturday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 09/17/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 19:26:42 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 171926
SWODY3
SPC AC 171925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CORN BELT AND OHIO VALLEY...AND FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Occasional wind damage and/or large hail will be possible across
parts of the central High Plains and from the central Plains to the
Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
The persistent midlevel ridge over the south central CONUS will
begin to weaken as a midlevel trough moves from ID/UT to WY/CO.
There will be a belt of modestly enhanced midlevel flow from the
central Plains to the Corn Belt/OH Valley, around the northern
periphery of the ridge. This belt of somewhat stronger flow will
coincide with a slow-moving baroclinic zone with richer low-level
moisture into the OH Valley and deeper mixing with hot surface
temperatures along/south of the front across KS/OK/TX. Scattered
thunderstorms are probable along the front, with the strongest
storms expected during the afternoon/evening. Water loaded
downdrafts and up to 30 kt midlevel flow suggests the potential for
occasional downbursts/wind damage across the Corn Belt/OH Valley,
while deeper mixing/inverted-V profiles will favor higher based
storms with occasional strong-severe outflow gusts across the
Plains. Vertical shear within the warm sector will be on the lower
margins for organized severe storms, so this corridor will be
maintained as a MRGL risk.

Wind profiles and forcing for ascent will be a bit stronger across
the central High Plains, downstream from the midlevel trough
approaching the central Rockies. There will be a conditional threat
for a couple of supercells, though uncertainty remains regarding the
magnitude of buoyancy and how much clouds will inhibit surface
heating. Isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts will be
possible, mainly during the afternoon/evening.

..Thompson.. 09/17/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 07:08:30 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 180708
SWODY3
SPC AC 180706

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by mainly a wind and hail
threat, are possible across portions of the central High Plains, the
southern Plains, and the Midwest to Ohio Valley on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A relatively zonal upper-air pattern will become established across
the CONUS on Sunday, with a mid-level low-amplitude shortwave trough
expected to eject into the central Plains while a more amplified
upper trough impinges on the California Coastline. As the Plains
low-amplitude upper trough progresses eastward, a surface cold front
will continue to sag southward across the southern Plains to the TN
Valley region. Thunderstorms should develop along or ahead of the
cold front. Relatively rich low-level moisture preceding the front,
along with modestly cooler temperatures aloft, may yield enough
buoyancy to support an isolated severe threat, mainly across the
southern Plains and the Midwest to OH Valley.

...Southern Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm initiation should take
place ahead of the surface cold front by afternoon peak heating,
especially over northern to central OK. Here, surface temperatures
climbing through the 80s F, amid upper 60s F dewpoints, will support
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear, amid 7
C/km mid-level lapse rates, may encourage multicellular
organization, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. Given
modest forcing for ascent, storm coverage is uncertain, so the
severe threat is currently anticipated to remain isolated.

...Central High Plains...
Upslope flow along the central High Plains will encourage enough
orographic lift for the development of a few thunderstorms by late
Sunday afternoon or evening. 7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and
elongated, straight hodographs with 50 kts of effective bulk shear
will favor stronger updrafts to organize into supercells. Severe
hail and wind will be the main threats.

...Midwest to OH Valley...
Surface dewpoints over 70 F will precede the cold front over the
Midwest to OH Valley corridor as it progresses southward. Both
pre-frontal and ana-frontal storm development is possible Sunday
afternoon. Over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE will exist ahead of the front,
though vertical wind shear should be modest (i.e. 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear). A mix of multicells, short line segments, and
perhaps a supercell are likely. However, the severe threat is
currently anticipated to be relatively isolated in nature, with
mainly a few instances of severe wind or hail likely.

..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 19:28:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 181927
SWODY3
SPC AC 181926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by mainly a wind and hail
threat, are possible across portions of the central High Plains, the
southern Plains, and the Midwest to Ohio Valley on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a northern stream shortwave trough crossing New
England, a surface cold front will move southeastward into the
Mid-Atlantic, lower OH Valley and southern Plains by early Monday.
The frontal location will be modulated by prior convective outflows,
and it will reside beneath a belt of somewhat enhanced (~30 kt)
midlevel flow with embedded perturbations. Predictability of
thunderstorm clusters is low in this flow regime, so will maintain
low severe probabilities along the frontal zone where steep
low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts will favor the
potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts.

Upslope flow will help keep low-level moisture close to the Front
Range, with cooler temperatures and weaker buoyancy/stronger
convective inhibition farther east into the Plains. The passage of
a weakening midlevel trough during the afternoon will provide weak
ascent and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells
capable of producing isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts.

..Thompson.. 09/18/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 07:17:24 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 190717
SWODY3
SPC AC 190715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts
of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Mainly zonal mid-level flow, with embedded impulses, will
characterize the upper air pattern east of the Rockies, with a
mid-level trough slowly progressing across the Southwest on Monday.
Eastern portions of a diffuse cold front will linger over portions
of the eastern TN Valley into the central Appalachians Monday
afternoon, supporting scattered thunderstorm development. Given
upper 60s F dewpoints contributing to 1500+ J/kg of tall and thin
MLCAPE, a few wet downbursts capable of producing damaging gusts may
occur with the stronger storms.

..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 19:13:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 191912
SWODY3
SPC AC 191911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts
of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.

...Central/Southern Appalachians...

Mainly zonal flow will overspread the eastern CONUS on Monday. While
weak westerly flow aloft is forecast, a surface cold front will
continue to develop southward across the Midwest, TN Valley and
central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic regions. A moist airmass ahead of
the front, characterized by 60s to low 70s F dewpoints, will support
a corridor of moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from the
eastern TN Valley toward the southern/central Appalachians. Where
stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates are
forecast. Sufficient instability coupled with steep low-level lapse
rates and PW values around 1.75 inches may support sporadic strong
gusts from wet microbursts across parts of the TN Valley into
southern VA and western/central NC.

..Leitman.. 09/19/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 07:19:04 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 200715
SWODY3
SPC AC 200714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur with the stronger storms across
portions of the southern Appalachians into the Southeast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-air pattern is poised to amplify some on Tuesday, with
upper ridging building back into the Plains states as positively
tilted upper troughs become established over the OH/TN Valleys and
the Southwest. A surface cold front will continue to usher southward
from TX to the Gulf coastal region through the day on Tuesday,
encouraging thunderstorm development. 1500+ J/kg of tall/thin
MLCAPE, driven by mid 60s F surface dewpoints, will be present from
the southern Appalachians to the Southeast. As such, the stronger
storms in this area will be capable of producing a few wet
downbursts, with isolated tree/wire damage possible.

..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 18:17:28 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 201817
SWODY3
SPC AC 201816

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur with stronger storms from far
east-central Mississippi into portions of the southern Appalachians
on Tuesday.

...Far east-central MS into parts of the southern Appalachians...

A surface cold front will be in place across the TN to Lower MS
Valleys Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the CAD/wedge front will develop
south across the Carolinas through Tuesday evening. Ahead of the
surface boundaries, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be in place
beneath weak midlevel lapse rates. Abundant low-level moisture and
stronger heating will support a corridor of moderate destabilization
from far east-central MS toward far western NC. Deep-layer westerly
flow will remain weak, and effective shear magnitudes less than 20
kt. However, steepened low-level lapse rates and PW values near
1.75-2 inches could support sporadic strong gusts from wet
microbursts within thunderstorm clusters during the afternoon and
early evening. The CAD/wedge front across the Carolinas will limit
northeast extent of the severe risk, and probabilities have been
removed from that area with the Day 3 update.

..Leitman.. 09/20/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 07:29:20 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 210728
SWODY3
SPC AC 210727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Plains states and
the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the Plains as a 500 mb cut-off low
meanders over the central Appalachians and broad upper troughing
continues along the West Coast on Wednesday. Surface high pressure
will become established over portions of the central Rockies and
across most of the CONUS east of the MS River. The best chance for thunderstorms will be across portions of the Plains states, where
weak surface lee troughing will encourage modest low-level moisture
return. A few thunderstorms are also possible closer to the
Southeast in advance of an inverted surface trough over the TN
Valley. However, given the lack of a clear source of deep-layer
ascent, as well as overlapping favorable vertical wind shear or
instability anywhere over the CONUS, no severe probabilities have
been introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 18:58:08 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 211855
SWODY3
SPC AC 211854

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure will become established across much of the
CONUS east of the Mississippi River. A surface cold front will move
across the Gulf Coast and Southeast states. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop with the moist airmass ahead of the front across part of
the Southeast. Further west, surface lee troughing across western
portions of the Plains will aid modest northward moisture transport
and isolated thunderstorms could occur across this area as well.
Overall, severe potential will be limited by a lack of stronger
forcing for ascent, modest instability, and weak vertical shear.

..Leitman.. 09/21/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 22 07:20:28 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 220720
SWODY3
SPC AC 220718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will prevail over the East and West Coasts while
upper ridging continues over the Plains states. West of the Rockies,
an embedded mid-level impulse will track northeastward across the
Southwest, bringing widespread showers and widely scattered
thunderstorms. However, buoyancy and shear should be too meager to
support an organized severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/22/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 22 18:45:08 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 221844
SWODY3
SPC AC 221843

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper-level troughs are expected to persist across the
eastern and western CONUS on Thursday, with an upper ridge expected
to remain in place across the south-central CONUS. Across the East,
favorable low-level moisture will become increasingly confined to
the immediate Gulf Coast and FL. Farther west, seasonably rich PW
will support thunderstorm potential across a broad region from the
Southwest into the High Plains, though generally weak lapse
rates/buoyancy and modest deep-layer flow/shear are currently
expected to limit organized severe potential.

..Dean.. 09/22/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 07:11:12 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 230710
SWODY3
SPC AC 230709

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will flatten across the central U.S. as a
mid-level trough progresses eastward across the northwestern CONUS,
resulting in the ejection of multiple preceding mid-level impulses
into the Plains states on Friday. One impulse will encourage surface
lee trough strengthening over the southern High Plains, along with
enough deep-layer ascent to encourage widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. While a strong gust or sparse instance of
hail cannot be ruled out, modest vertical wind shear and poor
tropospheric lapse rates should limit the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 19:30:12 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 231929
SWODY3
SPC AC 231928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
The Northwest upper trough will progress into the northern Rockies
on Friday. The upper ridge in the Plains will flatten as small-scale
mid-level shortwave troughs move through the central Rockies into
the Plains. The moisture plume within the Southwest will continue to
stream into the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. This should
lead to continued areas of cloud cover and precipitation that will
shift eastward with time. Weak mid-level lapse rates and generally
limited destabilization should limit the potential for organized
severe storms.

..Wendt.. 09/23/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 24 07:14:14 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 240714
SWODY3
SPC AC 240712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and wind may accompany a few thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A 500 mb cutoff low will meander off of the East Coast while
relatively zonal flow prevails over the central U.S. and an upper
trough impinges on the West Coast on Saturday. Surface lee troughing
and continued southerly moisture advection will continue across the
Plains states given persistent upper troughing to the west. Medium
range guidance consensus depicts thunderstorm development, spurred
by low-level warm-air advection and the approach of a subtle
mid-level impulse across portions of the southern Plains. 7 C/km
mid-level lapse rates atop low 60s F surface dewpoints will
contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, appreciable
veering with height will yield over 30 kts of effective bulk shear
via modestly curved and elongated hodographs. Multicells and
supercells may develop, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail
threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 24 19:13:20 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 241913
SWODY3
SPC AC 241912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and damaging winds may accompany a few strong to
severe thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern
Plains Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the eastern US will remain in place as mid-level
flow trends more zonal this weekend. Shortwave ridging over the
western US should temporarily intensify ahead of a series of
low-amplitude Pacific troughs approaching the coast. A subtle
shortwave perturbation will move from the Rockies and across the
central US with mid-level flow gradually turning northwesterly in
its wake. Surface lee troughing and a weak cyclone should deepen
over the central and southern High Plains amidst a moist
monsoon/tropical air mass. Scattered thunderstorms with at least
isolated severe potential are expected.

...Central and southern Plains...
Ahead of the weak low and lee trough, southerly low-level flow will
aid in maintaining a moist air mass across much of TX/OK and KS.
Diurnal heating and subtle surface confluence ahead of the trough
should allow for weak to moderate destabilization through the
afternoon. Two areas of thunderstorm initiation appear possible,
along and ahead of the surface low in KS where mid-level flow is
stronger (deep-layer shear of 30+ kt), and farther southwest along
the lee trough into western OK and the east/southeastern TX
Panhandle. Lingering clouds and showers in eastern KS cast some
uncertainty on destabilization and the presence of surface-based
storms farther north. Still, isolated hail would be possible with
any storms near the surface low.

Despite somewhat weak flow aloft farther southwest, veering with
height should yield 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear with modestly
curved and elongated hodographs. Peak afternoon buoyancy of
1500-2000 J/kg along and east of the lee trough with temperatures in
the 80s and upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will be capable of
supporting strong updrafts. As such, a few organized multicells and
transient supercells may develop and intensify along a narrow
corridor through the afternoon. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
and sufficient buoyancy may support an isolated severe wind/hail
threat with the stronger/organized storms.

..Lyons.. 09/24/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 25 07:25:32 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 250725
SWODY3
SPC AC 250723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level cut-off low will meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic
coastline while upper ridging persists over the central U.S. and an
upper trough amplifies west of the Rockies on Sunday. Thunderstorms
will be possible across the central and northern Rockies ahead of an
embedded mid-level impulse, which will be accompanied by cooler
temperatures aloft and deep-layer ascent. Thunderstorms will also be
possible in the Plains states in association with low-level moisture
advection accompanying surface lee troughing. Across the northern
High Plains, strong vertical wind shear will accompany the
approaching mid-level impulse, which may ultimately support an
instance or two of marginally severe wind or hail. However, buoyancy
will be negligible to poor, so organized severe potential is
unlikely at this time, precluding the need for probabilities this
outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 25 19:27:56 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 251927
SWODY3
SPC AC 251926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Changes to the large-scale pattern will be slow Sunday into early
Monday with an occluded cyclone expected to remain near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. A midlevel shortwave trough will progress
inland to CA/NV, with downstream ridging from the southern High
Plains to the upper MS Valley. A weakening surface front will stall
near the I-44 corridor from MO into OK, and a warm advection regime
will develop late in the period across the Dakotas.

Isolated lightning flashes still may occur with elevated convection
near the southeast New England coast in association with warm
advection. A few thunderstorms will be possible through the day
Sunday from MO into OK and north TX along the weakening front.
Elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into the
Dakotas where sufficient moistening occurs with strengthening warm
advection. A few diurnal thunderstorms will be possible from
southeast AZ into NM and far west TX within the lingering monsoonal
moisture plume. The threat for isolated thunderstorms may persist
through late Sunday/early Monday into more of the Rockies as
moisture and ascent increase gradually downstream from the CA/NV
midlevel trough. Severe thunderstorms are not expected as a result
of consistently weak buoyancy and vertical shear in all of the
aforementioned areas.

..Thompson.. 09/25/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 26 07:18:16 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 260717
SWODY3
SPC AC 260716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will gradually morph into an open wave while ejecting
into the Atlantic from the Northeast and another upper trough
traverses the Southwest on Monday. Weak surface lee troughing and
associated low-level moisture return will continue over the Plains,
supporting increased thunderstorm chances. Meanwhile, some cooling
aloft and deep-layer ascent will encourage thunderstorm development
ahead of the aforementioned upper trough over the Interior West.
Nonetheless, the lack of a favorable overlap of buoyancy and shear
will inhibit organized severe thunderstorm potential, as also
suggested by the latest ML/AI calibrated guidance.

..Squitieri.. 09/26/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 26 19:29:08 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 261928
SWODY3
SPC AC 261927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will continue to move eastward into the Lower Colorado
Valley through Monday/early Tuesday. This will be separate from a
stronger belt of upper-level winds across the
northwestern/north-central U.S. Moisture within the Plains will be
maintained by low-level southerly flow. A weak surface low is
expected near the Black Hills. As this low/trough evolves through
the day, a cold front will move southeastward into parts of the
Dakotas. While some surface heating is possible in the vicinity of
the front, increasing clouds/precipitation will generally keep
surface temperatures cooler. Warmer air aloft should keep capping in
place during the afternoon. Storm development is more likely after
00Z as the front begins to move southeastward and the low-level jet
increases. Less than ideal diurnal timing, weak effective shear, and
modest mid-level lapse rates will likely limit severe potential with
this activity.

..Wendt.. 09/26/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 27 07:24:20 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 270723
SWODY3
SPC AC 270722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels on Tuesday, zonal westerly flow will be in place over
the northwestern U.S. with a trough in the northern Plains. An
upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest. In the
vicinity of this system, scattered thunderstorms will develop during
the day over much of the Southwest. More isolated storms will be
possible from the central Rockies northeastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley. Instability is expected to remain relatively
weak, and no severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S.
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 09/27/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 27 19:29:42 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 271929
SWODY3
SPC AC 271928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
The primary upper-level features of interest will be the main low in
the Southwest that will phase with the post-tropical remnants of
Polo. Moisture advecting northward will interact with a weak surface
boundary extending over much of the Plains. The upper low will
eventually move into the southern High Plains during the
evening/overnight period. Deep-layer flow, with a large southerly
component, will intensify as this occurs. Scattered to numerous
storms will develop within the Southwest and spread eastward into
the southern High Plains. Cloud cover will generally be expansive
ahead of the upper-level system, limiting afternoon heating. Storm
coverage will be greatest during the evening and overnight. Wind
fields would support some stronger gusts with convection despite
limited destabilization. Coupled with poor mid-level lapse rates
from the tropical airmass and largely meridional shear vector,
overall potential for organized/severe activity appears low.

..Wendt.. 09/27/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 28 07:32:16 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 280732
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado or
two will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening in parts of west-central and northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma.
Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of western and
central Kansas into far southern Nebraska.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level low and an associated 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet
will move from the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains on
Wednesday. A surface low will move eastward into western Kansas
during the day, as a dryline sharpens from the far eastern Texas
Panhandle southward into west Texas. To the east of the dryline,
surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which
will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability from west Texas
into southwest Oklahoma by afternoon. As large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching system overspreads the dryline,
thunderstorms will develop and increase in coverage in the mid to
late afternoon. A line of storms is expected to organize and move
eastward across the southern Plains during the late afternoon and
evening.

Model forecasts vary concerning the exact position of the strongest
instability on Wednesday. The latest ECMWF seems to be close to
consensus, with MLCAPE increasing into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range
from east of Lubbock to near Lawton. This location will be just to
the east of the mid-level jet, which will provide deep-layer shear
favorable for severe thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings at
21Z near the forecast instability axis have 0-6 km shear around 40
knots, which will support supercells with a threat of wind damage
and hail. Although storm development may initially be discrete, a
line is expected to form as convective coverage fills the east of
the dryline. This line will be capable of wind damage. During the
early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
increase into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, suggesting that a tornado
threat will also develop with embedded rotating storms in the line.
Any severe threat should persist into the mid to late evening as the
line moves eastward across central Oklahoma and central to southwest
Texas.

...Central Plains...
At mid-levels, divergent southwesterly flow will be in place across
the central Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move
eastward into western Kansas with a dryline extending southward from
the low. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence near
the dryline should result in thunderstorm development during the
late afternoon. As the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads
western Kansas during the day, deep-layer shear will become strong
enough to support organized convection. Storms are expected to
increase in coverage and move eastward into central Kansas during
the late afternoon and early evening. Although low-level lapse rates
are forecast to be poor, MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with 50 kts of 0-6
km shear should support an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts
and hail will be possible with supercells or multicells, especially
as low-level flow increases during the early evening.

..Broyles.. 09/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 28 19:26:54 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 281926
SWODY3
SPC AC 281925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible
across parts of the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Plains...
A midlevel closed low will move slowly eastward from NM to west TX
with slow weakening by late Wednesday, while the prior remnants of
Hurricane Polo will have ejected northeastward over the southern
High Plains and dissipated by Wednesday morning. An associated lee
cyclone will be maintained through the day, but also begin to fill
by Wednesday night. This all suggests a slow downtrend in the mass
response and associated wind profiles. Midlevel lapse rates will
also remain modest given prior days clouds/rainfall muting surface
heating across the southern Rockies.

In the wake of morning clouds/convection, there is the potential for
a narrow zone of surface heating and destabilization along and east
of the lee trough which could support additional thunderstorm
development during the afternoon/evening. Will maintain 5-15%
severe probabilities though the overall synoptic evolution casts
some doubt on both the coverage and magnitude of the wind/tornado
threat.

..Thompson.. 09/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 07:07:58 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 290707
SWODY3
SPC AC 290706

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Thursday across parts of the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the south-central
U.S. on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward across the
southern Plains. Surface heating and increasing low-level
convergence will result in scattered thunderstorm development near
the front. Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage during
the afternoon, moving eastward across a zone from southwest, central
and northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F may result in moderate destabilization across parts of the moist airmass. Storms that
develop within these pockets of stronger instability could be
associated with an isolated wind-damage threat, mainly as low-level
lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon. However, deep-layer
shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, which will marginalize
any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 09/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 19:31:26 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 291930
SWODY3
SPC AC 291929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over the southern High Plains Thursday morning is
expected to transition to a weakening trough extending from the
mid/lower MO Valley into the southern Plains by Thursday night.
During that break-down process, a series of vorticity maxima and an
associated belt of 40-50 kt mid-level flow will spread from the
southern Plains into the OH Valley. At the surface, an area of low
pressure will likewise weaken over south-central KS or north-central
OK ahead of a cold front settling south through the central Plains
and upper Midwest. The cold front will gradually overtake a north-south-oriented Pacific front, which is forecast to stall over
the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...

Spread exists across 12Z model guidance in the track of the upper
low, which will transition to an open wave on Thursday. The ECMWF in
particular has trended farther south with the primary vorticity lobe
emerging from the opening mid-level wave across OK. That scenario
leads to stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear centered
over the Red River Valley, compared to prior model runs. However,
the potential for early-day storms leads to uncertainty in the
degree of air mass destabilization by afternoon within that region.
Confidence in more robust air mass destabilization increases with
southward extent, especially from portions of central TX into the
lower Rio Grande Valley, where vertical shear will be weaker. Given
these considerations, the Marginal-Risk probabilities have been
broadened over the Red River Valley to account for the conditional
risk for organized severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. A
slight expansion of the Marginal-Risk probabilities was made over
the lower Rio Grande Valley to accommodate the potential for a
southeast-moving cluster of storms capable of sporadic damaging
winds Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley...

Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent are expected to increase
through the day, as highlighted in the synopsis. Considerable shower
and thunderstorm activity is anticipated along and ahead of the
front, which is expected to limit the degree of air mass
destabilization. However, where pockets of stronger heating can
occur, a strong to severe storm or two appears possible with the
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Confidence in where any
greater destabilization might occur currently remains too low to
include a Marginal-Risk probability contour.

...Central Kansas into northern Oklahoma...

As mentioned above, there is model variability in the track of the
mid-level wave and, by extension, the location of the surface low.
Nonetheless, a strong storm or two could develop Thursday afternoon
in the vicinity of the surface triple point, given sufficient air
mass destabilization.

..Mead.. 09/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 07:19:34 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 300719
SWODY3
SPC AC 300718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough over the Ozarks Friday morning is forecast to
weaken and move east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the
lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Along and to the south of
the front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop in areas
where instability and low-level convergence become maximized during
the afternoon. Over the moist airmass, the combination of
instability and deep-layer shear is expected to be insufficient for
a severe threat.

..Broyles.. 09/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 19:21:14 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 301920
SWODY3
SPC AC 301919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday.

...Discussion...

A vigorous, polar-branch trough progressing through the Great Lakes
and Northeast will become disconnected from a positively tilted,
lower-latitude trough over the southern Plains. At the surface, a
cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes into the southern
Plains Friday morning will advance south through the Mid-Atlantic
and the OH and TN Valleys toward the Gulf Coast states.

A fairly expansive area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
be ongoing at 12Z Friday along and ahead of the front from the OH
Valley into the southern Plains. Lingering precipitation and
associated cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating and
resultant air mass destabilization at many locations along the
boundary into the afternoon. Latest model guidance indicates the
segment of the front from southern MO and northern AR to along the
OH River will coincide with 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear with the
vector orientation largely paralleling the boundary. As such, the
risk for a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds could
materialize in those areas Friday afternoon and evening given
sufficient destabilization for surface-based storms. The overall
severe weather threat still appears too low to warrant inclusion of Marginal-Risk probabilities.

..Mead.. 09/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 07:26:18 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 010726
SWODY3
SPC AC 010725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday and
Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, zonal westerly flow will develop on Saturday from the
northern Plains into the Northeast. In the southern U.S., mid-flow
aloft will remain west-southwesterly. At the surface, a slow-moving
front will remain located across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. To the south of the front, weak instability is expected by
afternoon over much of the Southeast. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in areas where low-level convergence
becomes focused. Deep-layer shear will be relatively weak across
this moist airmass, limiting any severe potential.

..Broyles.. 10/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 18:57:02 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 011856
SWODY3
SPC AC 011855

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday and
Saturday night.

...Discussion...

A polar branch short-wave trough is forecast to amplify while
progressing from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the
surface, an associated cold front will advance through the northern
Plains and upper Midwest with a pocket of cool mid-level
temperatures (e.g., -14 to -18 C at 500 mb) and resultant steepening
of mid-level lapse rates contributing to widely scattered
thunderstorms, a few of which could contain small hail. Elsewhere,
another boundary will settle slowly south into the Carolinas and
western and central Gulf Coast states. A moist and at least
marginally unstable air mass will exist to the south of that feature
with thunderstorms possible from portions of the southern Plains
into the Carolinas and Southeast. Weak vertical shear is forecast
across the warm sector, which, coupled with weak mid-level lapse
rates and forcing for ascent, is expected to limit severe weather
potential.

..Mead.. 10/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 05:53:42 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 020553
SWODY3
SPC AC 020551

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will continue to deepen Sunday as the
parent low moves out of Ontario and into western Quebec. A leading
shortwave trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, with an attendant cold front. However, little if any
instability will be present to support thunderstorms.

Behind the leading wave, a secondary and stronger backside speed max
will nose into the Upper Great Lakes late in the day, with another
surface high building across much of the Midwest.

Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from the TX Coast to
FL, where low-level moisture and instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE)
will exist. Weak shear and warm temperatures aloft will not favor
severe storms.

..Jewell.. 10/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 19:26:36 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 021926
SWODY3
SPC AC 021924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast for Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A deep midlevel trough will move from the Great Lakes to New
England, as upstream ridging persists from the Four Corners into the
Great Basin. A previously stalled front will be reinforced and will
begin to move southeastward across the southern states, in the wake
of the Great Lakes midlevel trough. A moisture plume will persist
along and ahead of the front, with sufficient buoyancy for embedded thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, in an environment with
weak vertical shear. Elsewhere, isolated/diurnal convection with a
few lightning flashes will be possible over the high terrain of
southwest CO. Farther west, a weak midlevel trough over the eastern
Pacific will approach northern CA/OR by late Sunday. There is low
potential for enough moistening/ascent to support isolated lightning
flashes. However, the threat appears sufficiently low to preclude
adding a thunderstorm area for CA/OR in this update.

..Thompson.. 10/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 05:34:34 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 030534
SWODY3
SPC AC 030533

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, an upper low will deepen further as it moves east across
Quebec, with strong cooling aloft spreading into the northeastern
states. Behind this system, a large area of high pressure will exist
from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into much of the southeastern
states. Given northeasterly surface winds over those areas, the more
robust low-level moisture will remain confined to the Gulf Coast
states. Here, winds aloft will remain weak, with primarily
non-severe storms expected.

Elsewhere, relatively cool midlevel temperatures will exist over the
Great Basin as a weak midlevel wave moves across NV/UT. This may aid
isolated afternoon thunderstorms, with minimal severe potential.

..Jewell.. 10/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 19:22:02 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 031921
SWODY3
SPC AC 031920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will continue to intensify as it moves quickly eastward
over the Northeast States and eventually offshore on Monday. In the
wake of the wave, northwesterly flow aloft will intensify as
expansive ridging develops across the central US. A surface cold
front near the Gulf Coast will continue to meander southward, with
high pressure and subsequent northeasterly low-level winds behind
it. Robust moisture will remain confined to the Gulf Coast states,
but with only weak instability and vertical shear overlap. Thus,
scatted thunderstorms are likely, but with little to no severe
potential.

Elsewhere, cool mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse
rates (8-8.5 C/km) beneath an upper-level shortwave trough may
support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great
Basin late Monday into early Tuesday. However, limited moisture and
buoyancy suggest overall coverage/intensity will remain limited.

..Lyons.. 10/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 19:28:42 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 041928
SWODY3
SPC AC 041927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper low, initially over the East Coast, will continue to
move offshore as a second broader trough and strong jet move into
the northern US from southern Canada. The increasingly strong
northwesterly flow aloft and a surface cold front will reinforce a
cooler and stable high pressure air mass over much of the central
and eastern CONUS. Northerly offshore surface winds extending to the
Gulf and Atlantic Coasts will limit available moisture for much of
the US.

Thunderstorm chances will be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast
and FL where weak shear and poor lapse rates should preclude any
organized severe risk. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms may affect the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners
region as a weak midlevel wave moves over the area steepening
low/mid-level lapse rates. Storm coverage should remain low and a
severe risk is unlikely given weak instability and deep-layer shear.

..Lyons.. 10/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 06:50:16 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 040649
SWODY3
SPC AC 040649

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough will quickly move out of eastern Quebec and New
England on Tuesday, with a secondary lower-amplitude trough diving
southeast across Ontario and Upper Great Lakes. This northwest flow
regime will generally maintain high pressure over much of the
central and eastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds near the
Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. As such, available moisture and
instability will remain largely offshore, except over FL where
afternoon thunderstorms are possible. Severe storms are unlikely due
to the weak shear/lapse rate environment.

Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms may affect the
eastern Great Basin into western CO, as a weak midlevel wave moves
over the area with cool temperatures aloft. Severe storms are
unlikely given weak instability and shear.

..Jewell.. 10/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 06:40:56 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 050640
SWODY3
SPC AC 050639

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will be situated near James Bay on Wednesday, with a
broad upper trough enveloping much of eastern Canada. A strong upper
speed max and tight midlevel temperature gradient will extend
roughly from MN to the Great Lakes, with gradual height falls across
the region. Meanwhile, a southern-stream upper jet will extend from
the Desert Southwest into TX, and across the Gulf Coast states. Cool
midlevel temperatures aloft will be prevalent over the Four Corners
states with -12 C at 500 mb.

Minimal instability will be present to support any thunderstorms
from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, despite the cooling aloft,
as surface temperatures will be relatively cool. A few low-topped
showers may affect the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday night.

Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible over the FL Peninsula,
as a front and surface trough gradually move south. Instability and
shear will be weak enough to preclude any severe weather chances.

Elsewhere, daytime heating and the presence of cool temperatures
aloft will support scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
over parts of UT, CO, AZ and NM. Isolated evening/overnight
thunderstorms may extend into NE, as southwest 850 mb winds develop
over the central Plains, aiding meager moisture advection. Severe
storms appear unlikely.

..Jewell.. 10/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 19:30:50 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 051930
SWODY3
SPC AC 051929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An initially low-amplitude upper trough over southern Canada and the
northern US will deepen into an upper low as it and an associated
strong mid-level jet move over the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold
front and cooling mid-level temperatures will support weak buoyancy
beneath the upper low, with isolated thunderstorms likely to be
ongoing early Wednesday. This may continue through the day with
strong height falls overspreading the Lakes and Northeast. A few
low-topped showers/storms with sporadic lightning may continue into
early Thursday. Otherwise, drier and cooler conditions associated
with the advancing cold front will limit thunderstorm potential over
much of the central and eastern US.

Meanwhile, a modest southern-stream upper jet will extend from the
Desert Southwest into TX, and across the Gulf Coast states where a
remnant front will be stalled along the coast. Isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible over the FL Peninsula, and
southern LA/TX near the more robust surface moisture. However,
instability and shear will be weak enough to preclude any severe
weather chances.

Across the West, daytime heating, residual monsoon moisture and the
presence of cool temperatures aloft with a weak upper trough over
the Rockies will support scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over parts of UT, CO, AZ and NM. Easterly upslope flow
associated with the cold front moving down the Plains may also
support an isolated storm or two across western/central NE overnight
into early Thursday. Meager instability and ascent will preclude
severe weather potential.

..Lyons.. 10/05/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 05:10:56 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 060510
SWODY3
SPC AC 060509

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move slowly into western Quebec on Thursday, with
a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft from the northern Plains across
the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Low-topped convective
showers may occur over parts of the upper Great Lakes by virtue of
cold temperatures aloft.

To the south, high pressure will maintain dry conditions over much
of the Southeast, the exception being FL where a moist air mass and
daytime heating will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

To the west, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur during the
afternoon over parts of the Four Corners states, and overnight from
eastern NE into northwest MO. Here, moisture will be the limiting
factor to any elevated hail chances.

..Jewell.. 10/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 19:20:24 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 061920
SWODY3
SPC AC 061919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. Thursday and Thursday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on
Thursday, as mid-level flow becomes west-northwesterly over much of
the northern U.S. In the southern states, a moist airmass will be
confined to south Texas and the Florida Peninsula. Scattered storms
are expect over Florida during the day, and an isolated storm will
be possible in South Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are also
expected in the afternoon from the Four Corners region into the
southern and central Rockies. Elevated storms may also develop in
parts of the mid Missouri Valley Thursday night. No severe threat is
forecast across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 07:35:32 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 070735
SWODY3
SPC AC 070734

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
An increasing tornado risk may develop into early Saturday morning
along the north-central Gulf Coast in association with the
developing tropical cyclone.

...Discussion...
Severe storm chances will be low across most of the CONUS on Friday,
the exception being over the northern Gulf Coast late Friday night
into Saturday morning.

NHC currently forecasts Tropical Depression 9 to become a hurricane
late Thursday, strengthening further into Friday over the Gulf of
America. Some uncertainty exists as to the timing of an eventual
forward acceleration northward. In any case, the system is forecast
to affect the northern Gulf Coast late in the Day 3 period (which
ends at 12Z Saturday morning), and as such, low probabilities for
tornado risk have been added.

Low-level shear/SRH will be very strong east of the storm center.
The surface air mass may remain stable over the mainland until very
close to 12Z Saturday, with a greater chance of larger SBCAPE over
extreme southeast LA prior to 12Z. Once the coastal boundary moves
inland, a surge of mid 70s F dewpoints and southerly winds will lead
to overly enlarged hodographs, supporting rotation in the stronger
cells with tornado potential.

..Jewell.. 10/07/2026

$$

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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 7 19:32:58 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 071932
SWODY3
SPC AC 071931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for tornadoes may develop across parts of northeastern Gulf
coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.

...Discussion...
Within the mid-latitude westerlies, it appears that large-scale
mid-level troughing will undergo substantive further amplification
across British Columbia through the Pacific Northwest. Downstream
ridging is forecast to build from the lee of the northern Rockies
through the upper Great Lakes/northwest Ontario vicinity, with
large-scale troughing to the east continuing slowly eastward across
New England and the Canadian Maritimes vicinity.

In the wake of the lead troughing, the building center of cool
surface ridging is forecast to shift from the upper Ohio
Valley/Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic Friday
through Friday night. At least initially, it appears that the south
to southwestern flank of this ridging will nose through much of the
south Atlantic Coast into eastern Gulf Coast states.

At the same time, Isaias is forecast to approach and migrate inland
of the northeastern Gulf coast as a hurricane, in advance of
high-level troughing which models suggest will begin accelerating
northeast of the Texas coastal plain vicinity by early Friday.
Model spread remains sizable concerning this trough and the track of
the tropical cyclone, however.

...Northeastern Gulf Coast...
Severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for the latest
NHC forecast track of Isaias. Based on the accelerating northward
motion of this system, evolving hodographs and forcing for ascent
conditionally most conducive to supercell structures with potential
to produce tornadoes could become focused well to the
north-northeast of the cyclone center. This may begin overspreading
coastal areas by early Friday evening, if not earlier. Even as this
shifts northward, well inland of coastal areas, it is possible that
hodographs, at least, will remain conditionally supportive of a
continuing risk for supercells with tornadoes as far south as areas near/west-northwest of the Florida Big Bend through daybreak.

The primary uncertainty with regard to the risk for tornadoes
concerns a preceding influx of potentially cool/stable
boundary-layer air as far south as coastal areas, which may remain
inhibitive through the period. Based on 07/12Z NAM (with a track
similar, but perhaps slower than the official forecast track)
forecast soundings, low-level thermodynamic profiles do not become
conducive to an appreciable risk for tornadoes until late Friday
night, generally near/northwest of the Florida Big Bend. This may
be in the wake of the better large-scale forcing for ascent.

..Kerr.. 10/07/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 07:31:58 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 080731
SWODY3
SPC AC 080730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A corridor of tornado risk may develop out of the Florida Panhandle
and into parts of Georgia and eastern Alabama on Saturday.

...Southeastern States...
As Isaias merges with the developing shortwave trough over the Lower
MS Valley on Saturday, moderate to strong wind fields will develop
over much of the Southeast. East of the surface low track, strong
southerly low-level winds will aid northward movement of moisture
and instability from the FL Panhandle northward across eastern AL
and across much of GA and the eastern Carolinas.

It is anticipated that severe storms may be ongoing within a
north-south oriented band east of the low, roughly from the FL
Panhandle into far eastern AL and southwest GA. Some of the early
day cells near or south of the effective warm front may produce
tornadoes as low-level shear will be very strong. This threat area
should lift north during the day across AL and GA. It should be
noted that depending on the exact surface low track and warm front
position, the Slight Risk area may be adjusted in later outlooks.

Overnight, the warm front will continue to lift north, with
additional destabilization possible toward the southern
Appalachians, and Carolinas. A low severe probability has been added
for the night time scenario, which should see generally lesser (but
still favorable) shear values and boundary layer instability.

...AZ...
The remnants of Rachel are forecast to spread across the region late
Saturday into Sunday. As this occurs, moisture and instability will
increase, as well as deep layer shear as a shortwave trough moves
toward the region. Given the nocturnal timing of destabilization,
and substantial model differences, will defer possible severe
probabilities to later outlooks. At this time, it appears isolated
cells cannot be ruled out into Sunday morning, but severe potential
will depend heavily on proper destabilization.

..Jewell.. 10/08/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 20:04:12 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 081931
SWODY3
SPC AC 081930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND/PANHANDLE AND EASTERN ALABAMA INTO
GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A corridor of tornado risk may develop out of the Florida Panhandle
and into parts of eastern Alabama and Georgia Saturday through
Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate considerable further amplification of large-scale
mid/upper troughing along much of the U.S. Pacific coast Saturday
through Saturday night. It appears that this may include the east-northeastward acceleration of a short wave trough into/across
southern California and northern Baja coastal areas, preceded by the
inland acceleration of remnants of Rachel into the lower Colorado
Valley by 12Z Sunday.

Downstream, broad mid/upper ridging is forecast to build within the
stronger mid-latitude westerlies, east of the Rockies through the
Atlantic Seaboard. However, within a lingering weaker branch of
westerlies, a developing mid-level low, including remnants of
Isaias, is forecast to begin gradually turning northward and
northeastward, around the northwestern periphery of westward
building mid/upper ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic
through the northern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf Basin.

...Southeast...
The weakening low-level circulation center of Isaias is forecast to
continue accelerating northward, across western Alabama during the
day Saturday, before slowing across the lower Tennessee Valley
Saturday night. As it progresses away from the Gulf coast, and
increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture return off
the Gulf, the associated risk for severe weather seems likely to
diminish.

Guidance suggests that the return of higher low-level moisture
content will remain focused along/east of weak surface troughing,
developing along the southwestern flank of a surface ridge slowly
shifting across and offshore of middle/northern Atlantic coastal
areas. It appears that this will generally set up across Georgia
into parts of the Carolinas, where boundary-layer dew points
increasing into the 70s F probably will contribute to at least
modest CAPE on the order of 1000+ J/kg, despite weak lapse rates.
Coupled with the maintenance of at least moderate southerly 850
flow, and enlarged low-level hodographs, forcing for ascent
downstream of the approaching mid-level low/trough may support
continuing convective development, including supercell structures,
Saturday into Saturday night. Some of this activity may pose a risk
for tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

Due to lingering forecast uncertainties, including those associated
with the extended time frame involved, the Slight Risk area has not
been changed at the present time. However, this may need to be
adjusted in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 10/08/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:39:34 2026

ACUS03 KWNS 090729
SWODY3
SPC AC 090728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
few tornadoes appear possible over portions of the Carolinas into
the Delmarva Sunday into Sunday evening, and parts of the lower
Colorado Valley mainly Sunday morning.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low over KY/TN Sunday morning is forecast to
evolve into an open wave within a broader-scale trough progressing
through the central and southern Appalachians toward the Atlantic
Coast. Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel initially
over southern CA will become increasingly sheared within a broad
belt of enhanced midlevel flow extending from the Desert Southwest
into the central Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure
will develop from KY into the upper OH Valley with secondary
cyclogenesis forecast on Sunday afternoon in the lee of the Blue
Ridge over central VA. That cyclone will be collocated with a
surface trough advancing east through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain
and a warm front lifting north through the southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Delmarva into the Carolinas...

Considerable strengthening of the deep-layer wind field is forecast
on Sunday in advance of the midlevel trough. However, considerable
cloud cover and areas of precipitation appear likely to limit air
mass destabilization within the poleward-expanding warm sector.
Nonetheless, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s
will support pockets of modest instability, especially in areas
where cloud breaks may occur. And given the presence of relatively
strong low-level and deep-layer shear, a conditional risk for severe
storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes will
exist Sunday into Sunday evening. Higher severe weather
probabilities may be required in later forecasts if subsequent model
data indicate greater instability than that currently depicted.

...Lower Colorado and Vicinity...

As detailed in the recently issued Day 2 Convective Outlook, the
enhancement of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent will coincide
with an at least modestly unstable air mass late Saturday night into
early Sunday. That regime is likely to persist through at least
Sunday morning with an associated risk for a few severe storms
capable of severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The
overall weakening of the midlevel trough by afternoon and limited
instability lead to uncertainty as to whether any severe weather
threat will spread north into the Great Basin and central Rockies.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

$$

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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