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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jan 3 00:26:25 2022

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AWUS01 KWNH 030026
FFGMPD
ORZ000-WAZ000-030953-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0009
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 PM EST Sun Jan 02 2022

Areas affected...Southwest WA and Western OR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 030023Z - 030953Z

Summary...Rain rates are expected to increase across the
discussion area as a front makes southeastward progress along the
WA/OR coastline this evening. Hourly rainfall totals periodically
exceeding 0.5" (and possibly as high as 1") are expected, which
could cause localized flooding issues through the overnight hours.

Discussion...Through the evening hours a front will continue to
push southeast towards and down the Oregon coastline. Low level
wind fields are quite impressive with this system...with 850mb
winds around 80kts. Winds in the 850-700mb layer are expected to
be over the climatological 99th percentile for early January. PWs
are below the 90th percentile, thus not all that anomalous for a
precipitation event. Nonetheless, the strong wind fields still
push IVT towards the 90th percentile with this system.

The well defined frontal boundary is expected to be accompanied by
a relatively narrow corridor of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall, with a thunderstorm or two even possible. The convective
nature of this frontal rain, combined with orographic ascent from
the very strong south southwesterly low level flow, will still
support a heavy rainfall risk despite the marginal PWs.

Recent HRRR runs and the 18z HREF indicate hourly rains locally
exceeding 0.5" along portions of southwest WA and coastal
OR...potentially beginning by 01z and slowly shifting southward
down the coast through the overnight hours. In fact high res
guidance indicates some potential for hourly amounts of around 1"
on a localized basis if embedded heavier convective elements are
able to move ashore along the frontal axis. Rainfall totals of
2-3", locally higher, are expected through the overnight hours.

Given the potential of higher rainfall rates, along with some
melting snow pack over the region...localized areas of flooding
appear possible through the overnight hours across the outlook
area.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!pYxLj84soFziiPUdkYbjB-YvZ7YC_unheEbb3ijZKd1z0a0xGD1pZbKh1z4KEMkmEMny= Xtr3$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 46682344 46552299 46092291 45452301 44632352=20
44082393 44302417 44892418 46182420 46602399=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jan 3 06:58:42 2022

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AWUS01 KWNH 030658
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-031255-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0010
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
157 AM EST Mon Jan 03 2022

Areas affected...western NC/SC border into central/northern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030656Z - 031255Z

Summary...Localized to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible from the western SC/NC border into central and northern
NC through 12Z. Rainfall totals of 1 to 1.5 inches in an hour and
2-3 inches in 2-3 hours are expected.

Discussion...GOES East water vapor imagery showed a powerful
shortwave trough/closed low crossing from AL into GA at 06Z,
beginning to take on a negative tilt, while regional radar imagery
identified scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
shortwave over GA and SC. 06Z surface observations placed a 1001
mb surface low in northern GA with a cold front extending
southward into the Gulf of Mexico and a warm front extending
eastward across southern SC. In response to strong forcing ahead
of the shortwave, the surface low has deepened roughly 1 mb/hr
since 00Z. A narrow plume of 1.5 to 1.7 inch precipitable water
values was located just ahead of the cold front over eastern GA
into southern SC along with 500-1000 J/kg of instability just
south of the warm front.

The closed mid-upper level low is expected to continue tracking
ENE over the next 6 hours or so, with the surface low continuing
to deepen in tandem. The gradient along the warm front is likely
to strengthen as an axis of strong frontogenesis sets up over
central NC by 10Z. Strong low level moisture transport just ahead
of the cold front will supply the northward advection of moisture
and instability into and across the axis of strong low level
convergence along the frontal boundary, with increasing coverage
of showers and a few thunderstorms through 12Z within a narrow
region of elevated instability north of the surface warm front.
Favorable upper level diffluence and divergence will track across
the Mid-Atlantic region within a coupled jet entrance/exit region
as forecast by the RAP, further enhancing lift. Hourly rainfall
totals of 1 to 1.5 inches are expected to develop just ahead of
the surface low through 09Z, spreading eastward along/ahead of the
warm front through 12Z with an axis of quick moving but repeating
rounds of heavy rain tracking along the boundary. Localized to
scattered flash flooding will be possible, perhaps more so in
urban areas and other locations with poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!pqGGveImcbjZP0KOw_iTDomRh4j5NlWzDk6KwY7PwE1TR-nfJts_TRn-RkzXuJVvUJgB= 8DDf$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36547753 36417699 35917717 35497789 35267965=20
35248073 34868174 34948225 35188234 35708208=20
36018152 36198104 36308030 36357972 36497824=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jan 3 09:53:16 2022

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AWUS01 KWNH 030953
FFGMPD
CAZ000-ORZ000-032100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0011
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EST Mon Jan 03 2022

Areas affected...western/southwestern OR into northwestern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 030951Z - 032100Z

Summary...Heavy rain will impact the Coastal Ranges of western and
southwestern OR into northwestern CA through 21Z. Localized 12
hour totals of 3 to just over 4 inches can be expected, with the
probability of higher rates lowering as a cold front reaches CA
later today.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor imagery through 09Z showed a
large closed low in the Gulf of Alaska slowly working south. At
the surface, a well defined cold front was analyzed just past
Astoria, OR, draping southwestward into the eastern Pacific.
Strong low level flow was estimated just ahead of the cold front
with RAP analysis data showing south-southwesterly winds at 850 mb
between 80-85 kt along the central to southwestern OR coast, just
ahead of the cold front. While precipitable water values were a
modest 0.6 to 0.8 inches within the moisture plume that was in
place ahead of the cold front, strong low level flow was allowing
for a small but potent plume of IVT near 700 kg/m/s. The locally
increased IVT values within the prefrontal moisture plume were
combined with weak instability (up to 250 J/kg), which has helped
to support observed rainfall rates between 0.7 and 0.9 in/hr in
northwestern OR earlier in the night.

Short term forecasts from the RAP and GFS take the cold front
steadily southward along the West Coast through 21Z. However, the
magnitude of IVT is likely near peak at the current time (09-10Z)
with forecasts showing weakening of the 850 mb flow through 12Z
along the southwestern OR coast. As the southeastern fringes of
the closed low edge closer to the coast, cooling in the 900-600 mb
layer will support shallow CAPE profiles up to 250 J/kg to as far
south as northern Curry County through 18Z. While low level winds
will weaken from their present values, 850 mb winds are still
forecast to be in the 40-50 kt range along the northwestern CA
coast along with some veering toward the WSW by 21Z.

The takeaway message will be the continued potential for 0.5 to
1.0 in/hr rainfall rates translating southward along the OR coast
early this morning, with the potential for 0.5+ in/hr rates
continuing into northwestern CA by early afternoon. Lower snow
levels inland will keep the threat for heavy rain focused to the
Coastal Ranges where 12 hour rainfall potential of 3 to 4 inches
will exist, although a localized 5 inch total cannot be completely
ruled out through 21Z. Localized flooding may result from the
intense rainfall.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!rTWvLHguBRWb3iz86iYfWU0ZpAMGqOh3VArOSltcQWMgeDgwZBJwtrzTKPbDfY4qVM8u= eoi6$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MFR...PQR...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 44712396 44642355 44342350 43702373 43152370=20
42732372 42272356 41702341 41102353 40632351=20
40072401 39902436 40422466 41262456 42872488=20
43822458 44592437=20

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From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 19:13:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141912
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-150010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, western
Virginia, northwestern North Carolina, far northeast Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141910Z - 150010Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will pose a flash flood risk
across the central Appalachians and vicinity through at least
23Z/7p eastern.

Discussion...A gradual increase in convective coverage was noted
across the discussion area over the past hour or so, with most
storms focused in one band over southern WV and eastern KY (from
near Beckley, WV to near Lexington, KY). The storms are embedded
on the southern fringe of appreciable flow aloft (30-40 knot
westerly mean steering flow), and while most storms were fairly
progressive, areas of 1.5-2 inch PW values were enabling heavier
rain rates approaching 1 inch/hr in a few spots. Ground
conditions are wet in a few spots, and with areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr
FFG thresholds, it appears that a few areas of flash flooding are
possible over the next few hours.

The extent of flash flood potential over the next few hours will
depend on convective coverage and degree of mergers. CAMs suggest
further upscale growth of the southern WV band of storms with
southeastward extent. These storms should also reach higher PW
values east of the Appalachians, though FFG thresholds also
increase with eastward extent especially east of
I-81/Blacksburg/Roanoke. Instances of flash flooding are possible
on a scattered basis, particularly in low-lying areas and
sensitive terrain. Backbuilding/upstream development in central
to eastern Kentucky also appears possible through the afternoon,
which could prompt another concentrated axis of flash flood
potential there (Lexington vicinity eastward to Jackson) through
23Z as well.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ACVZGIUyj-hei82IkeHpanpWsLSQVvCZPJSQ8hone9-YguKVifdsqFkJeIh6KsrlCLXeD4-x4YyJc9JiZf1zXcxIuI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38588440 38388150 38477926 37417891 36687913
36048022 36108285 36668412 37478520

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 20:51:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142050
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-150249-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1053
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of far west Texas and New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142049Z - 150249Z

Summary...Isolated instance of flash flooding are possible -
particularly near sensitive burn scars and terrain - through
03Z/9p mountain.

Discussion...Areas of thunderstorms are developing amid a very
warm/moist airmass in place across the discussion area. Weak
steering flow aloft (less than 10 kt) was contributing to
slow/erratic storm motions amid areas of 1-1.3 inch PW values,
supporting spots of locally heavy rainfall. Objective
analyses/RAP model and satellite data indicate the presence of a
weak mid-level shortwave trough over south-central New Mexico that
was likely contributing to the increase in convective coverage
along with strong surface heating/insolation. Spots of 1 inch/hr
rain rates were being observed per MRMS on an isolated/spotty
basis, and while these rates weren't exceeding FFG thresholds
areawide, their proximity to locally sensitive terrain and burn
scars suggests the presence of isolated flash flood potential in
this environment.

Most storms are diurnally driven, and the overall meso- to
synoptic scale environment should change very little over the next
several hours. Expect very isolated instances of flash flooding
to remain possible through around 03Z/9p mountain time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Sg77Qj_BNsVcxgocGQrn2OoDDeolHzX468HGquDbMYpNQNZGGezGFEvzgzxYVRJqeKXdRVjLO4Fdp0MKU2qwgm8BSk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35590804 35590718 35280603 35420514 35390475
35270441 34360391 33170368 31970333 30710295
29620297 29120321 29400396 30960542 31640666
31910796 31560831 31670872 33640907 35210891

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 21:19:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142118
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-150317-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1054
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Nevada, much of Utah, and northern
Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142117Z - 150317Z

Summary...Areas of slow-moving thunderstorms continue to pose a
flash flood risk across the discussion area. This risk will
likely continue through at least 03Z/9p mountain.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area. Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms have caused several
areas of impacts across far southwestern Utah today. While that
immediate area has experienced a brief lull in convective
activity, surrounding locales continue to experience locally heavy
rainfall (exceeding 1 inch/hr per MRMS) due to slow-moving cells
anchored in modest south-southwesterly steering flow aloft. Cells
are occasionally exhibiting right-moving character, which has led
to local backbuilding and enhancement of rain rates in a few
areas. Rain rates were exceeding FFG at times, and moderate MRMS
Flash responses were also noted -- likely suggestive of local
runoff/flash flooding.

Observations/models are all suggestive that the overall pattern
will change very little through 03Z/9p mountain, with plenty of
insolation and low-level moist advection continuing to provide
sufficient instability for continued thunderstorm development.
Storms may undergo a weakening trend after dark/03Z as low-levels cool/stabilize. Scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected between now and then.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8O3I7ak5qBdk2qyNJSjAB64sn8CWI7Hio4W2VMqV0duz-TKd722QrizSuyYcz_1YsFFvwzMZQPRUuY5CShiEQlRuQfE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40801038 39180951 35980939 34121006 33991349
35911573 36941618 38601629 39491642 40241476
40601191

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 22:25:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142225
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-150323-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1055
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142223Z - 150323Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are possible - particularly in
urban areas from I-95/Richmond southeastward toward Norfolk and
Virginia Beach through 03Z/11p eastern.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were making steady
southeastward progress from higher terrain of western Virginia and
currently extend from near Charlottesville to South Boston. The
storms were embedded in appreciable west-northwesterly steering
flow aloft, contributing to storm motions of 20-30 knots. Despite
these motions, storms were migrating toward a very high PW airmass
(2-2.3 inch), resulting in very high precipitation potential (and
recent estimates of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates per MRMS near CHO). On
their current track, storms will reach more urbanized (and locally
sensitive) areas of Richmond Metro southeast through Petersburg,
Norfolk, and Virginia Beach in the 2330Z-0200Z (730p-10p eastern)
timeframe. Should these cells maintain their current orientation
and intensity, a few areas of urban flash flooding are possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8C16gxByEX1GYTsQLEow6vCBBpWGR0rF6hxrfq9iXxelq2-I7sGP72TgIYS3uWJ7-LZ_gXF6mBsSg0baJQzpY0yyTAY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38577803 38417691 37587566 36737552 36527642
36567793 36917867 38457884

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 00:37:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150036
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150535-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...central/northeastern Colorado, southwestern
Nebraska, northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150035Z - 150535Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will gradually spread
northeastward out of Colorado into portion of the High Plains
through 05Z/11p mountain.

Discussion...Areas of scattered thunderstorm activity have evolved
into a series of slow-moving clusters and cells producing
occasional 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates. Recent convective trends
show a couple of forward-propagating segments between Akron/Limon
and near Oshkosh, with upstream cells focused primarily along
remnant outflows from prior convection. The storms are embedded
in very weak mid-level steering flow (less than 10 knots), with
1-1.5 inch PW values (highest with eastward extent) supporting
ongoing, locally heavy rainfall. Rain rates are exceeding FFG
thresholds at times (around 1 inch/hr in many areas), and a few
impacts have been reported near Denver, Cheyenne, and north of
Pueblo.

The downstream, airmass across much of the discussion area
contains a pool of undisturbed instability (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE)
and only weak convective inhibition. Trends suggest that ongoing
activity will continue to slowly propagate northeastward across
the discussion area, gradually reaching the CO/KS/NE border region
over the next 2-3 hours. As it does, locally heavy rain rates
will remain likely given continued slow movement and propagation
toward even more moisture (1.7+ inch PW). FFG thresholds are
slightly higher with eastward extent (around 1.5 inch or more),
suggestive that the ongoing flash flood risk may gradually become
more isolated with time. Storms will take some time to respond to
nocturnal low-level stabilization, and should persist through at
least 05Z/11p mountain time especially where upscale growth has
occurred.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4MZacy7pZNanZQZOELZFQ8xNu6hRwOnXtyg3dIuNkr5TFe1SkJ4qUs0vnEh0rWJ7fzimdu0aaGDGTI1Itmxr_ynBw5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42160208 41240114 40150099 38710120 38060175
38440405 39980479 41060395 41940386

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 02:51:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150251
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-150830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1050 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern CA...Far Southern NV...Northwest AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150250Z - 150830Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with strong concerns for cell-training and high rainfall rates will continue through the
evening hours over especially far southern NV, northwest AZ, and
perhaps small portions of far eastern CA. Additional areas of
flash flooding are likely which may include dangerous and
life-threatening impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR/VIS satellite imagery suite
shows cold-topped convection persisting and locally regenerating
over areas of far southern NV, northwest AZ and a small part of
eastern CA. This is occurring with the deeper layer southerly
fetch of monsoonal moisture and instability interacting with and
overrunning a well-defined convectively reinforced cold pool and
associated outflow boundary that is nearly stationary.

Surface observations and satellite data show the southern extent
of the outflow boundary generally anchored in between Bullhead
City, AZ and Needles, CA, with a northeast extent of this over to
just southeast of Grand Canyon, AZ. Radar data over the last hour
has shown a substantial area of regenerating and locally
cell-training convection over portions of Clark and Mohave
Counties.

The latest RAP analysis shows MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg
over the top of the cold pool with the aid of focused southerly
low to mid-level flow around the southeast flank of an upper
trough advancing northeastward toward the southern Great Basin.
Moisture flux anomalies in the 850/700mb layer are also on the
order of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. Satellite
imagery currently is also showing rather divergent flow aloft over
the region given proximity of the upper trough and associated jet
axis, and this is providing deeper layer ascent to help sustain
the convection.

Additional areas of locally focused heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the evening hours, with the
environment capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour, and additional storm totals of as much as 2 to 4
inches. This coupled with the rains that have already occurred
over the last couple of hours will support additional areas of
flash flooding, and at least localized concerns for dangerous and life-threatening impacts. Normally dry washes and any nearby slot
canyon and burn scar areas will be at greatest risk for impacts,
and this may include a heightened threat for downstream flood wave
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6BuljOTsCj9RpDZ3IOqAekikAWvi5I3fnkgM8VtS_glPRWDycYh71e2h6i6cOKrtg18uaRAQ_68VtpNPwgRZy9YcbjE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37081347 37011290 36631228 35941196 35491221
35021323 34841481 35031596 35451627 35811626
36151578 36491487 36931405

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 05:06:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150506
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-151100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...Far Northeast KS...Extreme Southeast
NE...Southern IA...Northern MO...Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150503Z - 151100Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms with significant cell-training concerns will exist
overnight. Numerous areas of flash flooding are likely with
elevated concerns for high-end and life-threatening impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
shows a well-defined MCV advancing east across central IA which is
in close proximity to a strong elevated instability gradient
situated along and north of a quasi-stationary front draped from
northeast KS through northern MO and into south-central IL.

MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are in place, with extremely
high PWs of 2.2 to 2.4+ inches based on the latest RAP analysis
and GPS-derived DATA. The 00Z RAOB data from KDVN and KILX show
deep WCL profiles with a highly tropical airmass extending deep
through the vertical column.

This environment is supportive of extreme rainfall rate potential
(2 to 4 inches/hour) over the next several hours as developing and
expanding areas of showers and thunderstorms occur along and north
of the stationary front. This will be facilitated by a
strengthening southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts overrunning
the front, promoting enhanced isentropic ascent/forcing, and also
driving enhanced moisture and instability transport into the
southern flank of the MCV crossing through the Midwest.

Very high FFG exceedance probabilities are showing up in the 00Z
HREF, and an analysis of the HRRR-TLE data (last 6 runs) strongly
supports a threat for extremely heavy rainfall totals at least
locally across parts of northern MO, southern IA and through
central IL with elevated concerns for high-end impacts.

Current radar and satellite trends integrated with the hires CAMs
suggest potential for as much as 4 to 7+ inches of rain by dawn on
at least a localized basis where enhanced cell-training takes
place. The environment is highly conducive for this, and with such
high moisture and instability profiles coupling with a belt of
stronger mid-level flow/shear for cell-organization/MCS
development, high-end rainfall rates/storm potential appears
likely.

The antecedent conditions are quite sensitive/moist across
especially areas of southeast IA and central IL due to recent
heavy rainfall, and the FFG values are already low here.
Therefore, the expectation over the next several hours will be for
numerous areas of flash flooding to materialize, with concerns for
dangerous and life-threatening impacts.

The threat will be somewhat lower farther back to the
west-southwest across northwest MO, northeast KS and far southeast
NE, but areas of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding will
exist here too. This situation more broadly over the Midwest needs
to be very carefully monitored going through the early morning
hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6CGsF9H8-Zs6vels4gYXUGiTdoLH-t9Anm_dxUJMBFmdXfDNiJk9H9h4F4az_zouVcCGYbgrpmEo_Q7brVPjy9fivnE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...LOT...LSX...OAX...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41659034 41558913 41168760 40328728 39818815
39539102 39409352 39089557 39229639 39759676
40239667 40659585 41279397 41529243

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 09:03:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150902
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-151500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1059
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...Southeast IA...Northeast MO...Central and
Northern IL...Central and Northern IN...Far Western OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150900Z - 151500Z

SUMMARY...Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity with locally
extreme rainfall rates will continue this morning. Numerous to
widespread areas of flash flooding including areas of high-end and life-threatening impacts are expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
west/east oriented MCS advancing across sizable areas of the
Midwest. The coldest convective tops (-75 to -80 celsius) are
depicted over far southeast IA through western and central IL.
MRMS data shows extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms with
rainfall rates occasionally into the 2 to 3+ inch/hour range.

All of the convective activity continues to advance east along a
strong elevated instability gradient situated north of a
quasi-stationary front draped from northern MO eastward across
southern IL and adjacent areas of the Lower OH Valley.

MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are in place, with extremely
high PWs of 2.2 to 2.4+ inches based on the latest RAP analysis
and GPS-derived data. Earlier RAOB soundings from 00Z confirmed
deep WCD layers and an environment conducive for extremely
efficient convection with high-end rainfall rates.

This will continue to be supported through early this morning by
the nose of a southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts overrunning
the front. This will sustain enhanced isentropic ascent/forcing
while promoting downstream moisture and instability transport. An
MCV also remains embedded within the larger scale convective mass
across southeast IA, and this coupled with the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment will favor convective
sustenance for several more hours.

Numerous to widespread areas of flash flooding are already
occurring across far southeast IA through western and central IL.
This threat is expected to extend downstream this morning across
eastern IL and much of central IN. By late this morning, areas of
western OH may also begin to be impacted. Low FFG values and high
streamflows per USGS data are noted all across these areas, and
thus the antecedent conditions are very sensitive.

The latest model guidance supports additional rainfall amounts
through this morning as high as 3 to 6+ inches, and especially
with strong cell-training concerns. Given the antecedent
environment, and high rainfall potential over multiple major
metropolitan areas, high-end and life-threatening flash flooding
impacts are expected.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9CwXyETkdfdE6u9Nc9Fuf0dIYseb-PrPcmPJb2qmbO9G8aOskhlgBXWjVQUM-L0qNq2VPA_isflO6K_Vmsacoj-dzic$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41698779 41568653 41298518 40888458 40358443
39828470 39458538 39258700 39418922 39589088
39869256 40119327 40649367 41189329 41449196
41648996

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 18:35:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151835
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-160033-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky into southwestern Virginia,
eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151833Z - 160033Z

Summary...Spots of flash flooding are possible with scattered
thunderstorms across the region through 00Z/8p eastern.

Discussion...Strong insolation has fostered sufficient instability
for scattered thunderstorm development mainly focused in the
eastern third of Kentucky. Storms are in a very strongly unstable
environment (2500 J/kg MLCAPE), with 2+ inch PW and weak/modest
steering flow (less than 10 knots) fostering slow thunderstorm
movement. The recent development of storms has mitigated rain
rates so far (peaking at around 0.5 inch/hr), though models/CAMs
and observations all suggest that as convection expands in
coverage over the next few hours, spots of mergers/upscale growth
along with 1 inch/hr rain rates will gradually become more likely
-- even if on an isolated basis. These rain rates will approach
local FFG (around 1-1.5 inch/hr areawide -- slightly higher east
of I-81 in southwestern Virginia and I-77 in North Carolina).
Given the low FFG and sensitive local terrain, at least isolated
flash flood potential will exist - perhaps through 00Z/8p eastern.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9QZp_hGf-6x3NRezarrscF7yVqrZuCtLbkwkBDyGma0x345vOmCNaEVEFF2l7_t1VZphrjUwDr2uwpcVXx76ysTq1ek$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38738387 38708243 38098033 37058008 36218044
35458176 34978440 35948463 37208433

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 15 19:12:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151911
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-160109-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1061
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of Colorado, New Mexico, and
southeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151909Z - 160109Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to increase in
coverage and pose a flash flood risk through at least 00Z/6p
mountain daylight time.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts thunderstorm
development on a scattered basis primarily along terrain-favored
peaks/ridges from central Colorado southward through south-central
New Mexico. Initial development so far has been concentrated in
areas of high storm bases (PW values of around 1 inch) and around
500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Weak steering flow has encouraged slow
storm motions, and MRMS radar estimates of 0.5-1 inch/hr have
already been noted - primarily due to slow cell movement.

Models/CAMs suggest that convection will continue to mature and
increase in coverage through the early evening hours while
drifting slowly northeast. As cells migrate eastward, they'll
encounter PW values (particularly east of the CO Front Range,
where 1.25+ PW values exist) increasing likelihood of additional
areas of heavy rainfall. Multiple storm mergers/backbuilding are
expected, which should also prolong heavy rain rates locally. FFG
thresholds near the storms and immediately downstream of are in
the 0.5-1 inch/hr range and should be readily exceeded at times.
Some storms may also interact with burn scars that have readily
supported excessive runoff and significant flash flood impacts,
and additional impacts are also possible. Flash flooding is
expected in several areas through 6p mountain time and beyond
given the regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_iNTGESQPoBdNs7QOp3pcKoSjnfxiuuO0ZD58QXo9QM030NUgicK2MrNcokkCmIUcvSDVE39DW2iigyx22zGpPG5hjc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...EPZ...GJT...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41980403 41230294 40090260 38370285 37010360
35560439 33920490 32900534 32700588 33440634
35640623 36990687 37960719 39830692 40900656
41940534

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 00:15:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160015
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-160613-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1062
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of Iowa and Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160013Z - 160613Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms were developing over southern
Iowa and should expand in coverage while reaching parts of
southeastern Iowa and Illinois that have received 2-7 inches of
rainfall in the past 24 hours. Areas of flash flooding are
possible on at least an isolated basis.

Discussion...A few areas of thunderstorms have materialized
between Des Moines and Burlington over the past hour. These
storms are forming along and ahead of a weak surface frontal
boundary and low-pressure area across southeastern Iowa. The
storms are in a favorable environment for heavy rainfall, with
abundant moisture (2-2.3 inch PW values), 4000 J/kg MLCAPE, and
subtle low-level confluence/mid-level forcing aiding in both
convective development and efficient rainfall processes. MRMS
estimates of 1 inch/hr were already noted just southeast of Des
Moines, which isn't surprising given the aforementioned
thermodynamic environment.

These storms were on a general path toward northern Illinois along
a corridor extending from Davenport to Galesburg (between I-74/US
34 and I-80). Just south of this region, 2-7 inches of rain fell
in the last 24 hours, and scattered to widespread flood/flash
flood impacts were observed. The combination of weak convective
inhibition and subtle forcing/convergence from a gradually
increasing low-level jet (focused in MO/western IL) may enable
upscale growth and propagation toward the prior rainfall axis over
the next 3-6 hours, posing a renewed flash flood risk on at least
an isolated basis. FFGs remain low from prior rainfall, and the
favorable thermodynamic environment readily supports FFG
exceedance and local 2-3 inch amounts especially with a favorable
storm mode for local backbuilding. Although somewhat conditional,
the risk of flash flooding will increase dramatically with any
southward development/propagation of cells toward the Burlington/Peoria/Bloomington/Champaign axis through 06Z/1a
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5iNspro22httGonRWUYTVOcE9gh25vlnGdDNMAhcqTC6jRd2F_rK0gOypfkIR2zVMmWDHNBn-RIhWyaskUGmUEUvM4U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41899013 41678874 41148802 40438780 39988812
40099081 40729322 41749354 41879197

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 00:51:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160051
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-160649-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1063
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
850 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...much of Kansas and far eastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160049Z - 160649Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected through 06Z/1a central.

Discussion...A couple of convective clusters were expanding
gradually toward western Kansas over the past hour. One was
located over far southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas, where
multiple merging cells have fostered spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates (per MRMS) and another, more linearly oriented cluster from
near Sterling south-southwest through Limon to near Pueblo. The
cells were making steady eastward progress toward increasing PW
(1.25-1.8), strong instability (around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE across
west-central KS), and low-level easterly flow, providing very
subtle low-level shear to aid in cell/MCS maintenance. These
clusters have resulted in several areas of reported flash flood
impacts and MRMS Flash responses - particularly across central
Colorado. Given the increasingly favorable thermodynamic
environment and expectation that several mergers will accompany
the clusters as they migrate eastward through Kansas, flash flood
potential is likely to continue through the night. FFG thresholds
only marginally improve with eastward extent into Kansas and
remain close to 1-1.5 inch/hr from west-central into north-central
KS and points northwestward. These thresholds will be exceeded
occasionally as cells move through the discussion area through
06Z/1a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Cm-QsVHwZtapGGu3-JgqCsTyJ4VGeUx1jV4ddkKqq3vXYwZG3zm1RFqP25N7hG47dsbpNEbNZwo1treAYaDizmEBYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...PUB...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40640301 40230149 40059919 39919784 38969738
37959808 37270013 37110217 37770380 38660416
40430374

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 03:32:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160331
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-160930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1064
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1130 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160330Z - 160930Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected tonight. Wet antecedent conditions and
high rainfall rates will foster areas of flash flooding. Some of
this may be significant and locally life-threatening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
well-defined MCV advancing slowly eastward across northwest OH
which is connected to the strong early-day MCS that impacted
upstream areas across the Midwest with heavy rainfall. This MCV is
in close proximity to a quasi-stationary front draped across the
Upper OH Valley and central Appalachians.

RAP data shows a rather substantial pooling of warm-sector
instability across the OH Valley with MUCAPE values locally as
high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg. A subtle increase in a west-southwest
low-level jet is expected overnight around the southern flank of
the MCV which will increase the moisture and instability transport
into the front and in an elevated fashion farther downstream.

This resulting isentropic ascent and forcing near the MCV itself
will foster the development and expansion of heavy showers and
thunderstorms overnight that will be capable of very high rainfall
rates. The PWs are 1.75 to 2.0 inches, and this coupled with the
instability will support rainfall rates capable of reaching 1.5 to
2.5 inches/hour.

Corridors of cell-training are likely by later tonight, and the
latest hires multi-model consensus supports as much as 3 to 5+
inches across portions central to southeast OH. Some of this heavy
rainfall is also expected to advance into northwest WV.

The antecedent conditions are very sensitive across the region
from heavy rainfall earlier in the week, and these additional
rains tonight will likely result in areas of flash flooding.
Significant and life-threatening impacts will be possible. This
will include a combination of urban flash flooding and also
terrain-driven impacts where rugged topography along the western
slopes of the central Appalachians will enhance runoff.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VkSzrbZP18jl0KJLz6EuzDispRJId9-fHa-2ymGGTH4iHvhrjW2BTq1JXUpOMP-7QnEXQfoRhVzeHKTHp3Du0gUXgA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41478292 41278111 40757993 39877948 38917976
38478046 38528127 38698185 39128272 39718339
40558428 41218402

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 06:37:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160636
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast KS...Far Southeast
NE...Northern MO...Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160635Z - 161235Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually
increase in coverage later tonight and through early Sunday
morning. Some localized cell-training may occur and this will
favor a threat for at least some isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite data along
with radar shows a forward-propagating MCS advancing toward
north-central KS in association with a shortwave trough ejecting
out across the central Plains. This energy will be interacting
with a frontal zone draped across eastern KS through northern MO
over the next several hours which will set the stage for an
increase in the coverage of convection.

MUCAPE values in vicinity of the front are 2000 to 3000 J/kg with
PWs also quite high in the 2.0 to 2.25 inch range. This very moist
and unstable environment will be favoring high rainfall rates
capable of locally reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. The increase
in convective coverage ahead of the current MCS will be tied into
broader warm air advection and forcing extending downstream across
especially northeast KS and northern MO as a modest uptick in
low-level southwest flow overruns the aforementioned front.
Modestly divergent flow aloft ahead of the shortwave energy will
also facilitate an increase in thunderstorm activity near and just
poleward of the front where the better instability gradient will
be aligned aloft.

The latest hires model guidance suggests some localized
cell-training concerns which may allow for some narrow swaths of 3
to 4+ inch rainfall totals going through early Sunday morning.
This may yield some isolated, and mainly urban flash flooding
concerns. If the convection were to advance into western IL, which
is suggested by some guidance, the threat for flash flooding may
increase a bit given wetter antecedent conditions across this
region.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7qq3-xwnWsxH-fs36pzxpTlQcG1VB_2KNJj2AGuXRuKKAcoP5bTTHi6hcDg5fm5UXQGEdf99-RNT7_aylE-YiMssZmQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...ICT...ILX...LSX...OAX...
SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40879049 40418949 39578936 39059015 38729229
38549482 38559687 38719841 39459884 39899840
40289685 40469552 40609401 40729199

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 08:52:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160851
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-161450-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1066
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160850Z - 161450Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning
across parts of the Upper OH Valley and central Appalachians.
Additional pockets of flash flooding will be likely with locally
significant impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an MCV
entering northwest IN in association with a compact MCS exiting
northeast IL, with a second MCV downstream over northeast OH. Both
of these MCVs along with broad warm air advection/isentropic
ascent will work in tandem with the presence of deep moisture and
modest instability transport for additional clusters of heavy
showers and thunderstorms. A warm front lifting northeastward into
the central Appalachians is another key element of the convective
threat.

Radar imagery shows locally focused areas of convection currently
over north-central WV with separate pockets of heavy showers and
thunderstorms scattered over southern OH and far western WV. The
activity continues to facilitate locally extreme rainfall rates as
high as 2.5 inches/hour given the very deep moisture that is in
place along with pockets of moderate instability. MUCAPE values
locally as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg and PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches
are in place based on the latest RAP analysis.

As the MCV energy traverses the Upper OH Valley and central
Appalachians this morning, additions rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will be expected, and some cell-training concerns
will exist. There will also be the added element of orographic
ascent/upslope flow over the central Appalachians including
southwest PA, far western MD, and much of central WV where
rainfall rates may be enhanced further and also more concentrated.

Additional rainfall totals this morning of 3 to 4+ inches will be
possible and especially where any cell-training takes place. The
antecedent conditions are very sensitive across the region from
heavy rainfall earlier in the week, and these additional rains
this morning are likely to result in more flash flooding. Locally
significant impacts will be possible and especially over the
rugged terrain of the central Appalachians.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9kFO52Yd4LPzZSeSzFbXzOtrEbNgLfugM7FZbYepo-q8LRRp2uYX-fYjW3C1LnPhJibdZFEucKPQa7Zm3vJV52btH-4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41598332 41018154 40918045 40847906 40537826
39867793 39027798 38217830 37747895 37517977
37578102 37758167 38078242 38918347 39558444
40298492 41338467

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 12:06:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161205
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-161700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois and Southern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161203Z - 161700Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over south-central Illinois
will continue to shift east in a moisture rich environment.
Cell-training should continue which raises a threat for isolated
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...NEXRAD regional display shows an active cluster of
thunderstorms tracking south of Decatur, IL in a warm sector south
of a stationary front over northern IL. SBCAPE of 1500 J/kg and PW
of 2.1" is allowing heavy rainfall with deep layer westerly flow
allowing repeating activity. One hour rainfall of 1.5" is
estimated from KILX. This is close to the 1hr FFG. This activity
will continue to shift east on the north side of the persistent
ridge axis over the Deep South.

Areas downstream have not been as wet as areas farther north over
the past several days, though this activity may persist through
eastern Indiana which had exceptional rain during midweek.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have little to no rainfall downstream of
the current cluster. Some warming is noted in the latest clean IR
scans, so this activity may yet diminish. However, the axis of
instability downstream does suggest some potential for continued
development. Isolated flash flooding is possible rest of the
morning.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7w3YTxxdWMwFSdb_OctvF4BMQ4G2YbdLEDynclstmqxtwxymjnBQLyYa3Vx8Hht_e481tdvzLRgkKdnxKSPJgk24u08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40248573 40028478 39148455 38468505 38368636
38978971 39808996 40238767

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 16 14:50:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161450
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern Ohio and West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161448Z - 162030Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over the central Ohio/Indiana
border should expand and intensify over southern Ohio through West
Virginia through this afternoon. Cell-training should continue
with coverage of flash flooding increasing to scattered for this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster east of Muncie, IN is in a
warm sector south of a warm front over northern OH. SBCAPE is
increasing to 3000 J/kg over southern OH where sunshine is fairly
abundant per visible imagery. Moisture is pooled as well with PW
around 2.1". Hourly rainfall 1" is estimated from KILN for this
cluster with deep layer westerly flow allowing repeating activity.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase through midday with ample
instability along with a trough axis extending northeast from
Indiana/Kentucky. Southern Ohio and WV are vulnerable to further
flash flooding from a prolonged series of active weather. 1hr FFG
is generally around 1".

Like with earlier activity over IL, recent HRRR and RRFS runs have
little to no rainfall downstream of the current cluster. However,
the environment is encouraging for renewed growth and this area is
rather vulnerable. Expect flash flooding instances to increase to
scattered coverage through the afternoon hours with locally
considerable impacts likely. Further shortwave impulse tracking
north of the Deep South ridge should promote further activity
tonight, so subsequent discussions are likely.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4zUHVvKRQl-7VXcS2F6JTy1sZde9O5fM_Kup4kLE33Df1Q7HImJI1g_C2icX6ymImxlt1EXb5X23P_6EnA_93LeViGc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40548379 40438252 40108154 39648069 39217996
38807956 38417977 37798007 37288030 37328077
37448119 37998247 38388392 39198513 39888524
40318491

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:21:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170135
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170733-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
934 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois
and southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170133Z - 170733Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
forming a complex near/west of St. Louis Metro. Flash flood
potential will accompany this activity through 07Z/2p central.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have increase in coverage
across eastern Missouri recently. The storms are being forced by
a couple of influences: 1) weak mid-level troughing migrating
through zonal flow aloft across the region and 2) low-level
confluence associated with a trough/weak front migrating into the
region from the northwest. These factors were forcing
thunderstorm development amid an abundantly moist airmass (2+ inch
PW) with very strong instability over the Missouri Ozarks (3000+
J/kg MLCAPE), resulting in convective activity with heavy rainfall
potential. Appreciable steering flow exists (around 20 knots or
so), although the east-west orientation of storms near St. Louis
Metro and the propagating nature of convection farther west (near
Jefferson City/Rolla) suggests both the potential for mergers and
eventual upscale growth into a forward propagating complex. The
mergers will likely result in areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates near
St.Louis and along the I-70 corridor in the near future.
Meanwhile, FFG thresholds of around 1.5-2 inch/hr will be exceeded
at times -- also suggestive of flash flood potential.

Ultimately, the extent of the flash flood risk across the
discussion area will depend on the extent and maturation fo
convective coverage and potential for any localized
training/backbuilding to unfold. CAMs suggest that local
backbuilding is a possibility in this regime even though
forward-propagating clusters/lines may end up being the primary
convective mode. Flash flood potential will exist for several
hours tonight (through 07Z).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!60AWdktpY8unnKtDXkRMpYHXSaCpA1aepUNVLlMKmNEdNLlFZVjXOfM2EN3Vixa5bjovFOxUKuoiJe3ZjyAPaJ4vkRM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40008930 39818699 38328684 37628813 36958972
36879203 38479202 39219162 39689110

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:30:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170732
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-171330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...Lower OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170730Z - 171330Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with potential for multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the
Lower OH Valley going through the early morning hours. Areas of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cold-topped MCS (tops to near -75 C) advancing eastward across the
Lower OH Valley, with one strong convective segment moving across
far southwest IN and into parts of northwest KY, with some renewed
convective development see back to the west across southern IL.

This activity is associated with a shortwave impulse and
associated surface low crossing the region while interacting with
a frontal zone and the pooling of moderate instability along it.
MLCAPE values are locally around 1500 J/kg with PWs of 2+ inches.
There is a west-southwest low-level jet of 30+ kts around the
southern flank of the vort energy that is overrunning this front,
and that along with focused moisture convergence is helping to
support the organized nature of the MCS.

The forward propagation of the MCS to this point has mitigated the
flash flood threat. However, radar imagery showing some new
convective development back to the west of the initial convective
line. Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2 inches/hour have been noted with
the strongest cores of the MCS, and this has been allowing for
some brief spotty FFG exceedance.

Since there is some additional upstream convection that will cross
areas that have seen the initial round of heavy rainfall, there
may be sufficient totals to foster some areas of mainly urban
flash flooding in the near-term.

However, the other consideration over the next few hours will also
be areas downstream across central and eastern KY where antecedent
conditions become more sensitive due to recent heavy rainfall.
This is where FFG values are lower and USGS data shows
elevated/high streamflows. If the current MCS can maintain its
character downstream across central and eastern KY through early
this morning, the threat of flash flooding will increase in
coverage and magnitude.

As such, the latest model guidance does support some heavy
rainfall (spotty 2+ inch totals) making it east across these areas
early this morning. Therefore, at least regionally there should be
a concern for localized flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9gNRKvPTZHNmxAmBGz6aa0OV0p0S3vdCGKVxAOXyVnuollec68D6woCaDM28CpAAk3v2AS23Snlelumpbj89J1tK52E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39118458 38868335 38448263 37938242 37478279
37208375 37058511 37068720 37318872 37768933
38388917 38818834 39078687

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:35:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161739
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-162230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
139 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania to
Potomac Highlands

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161737Z - 162230Z

SUMMARY...Organized thunderstorms over northeast Ohio will
progress east through western Pennsylvania into this evening.
Cell-training is possible with a localized flash flooding concern
rest of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730Z, an MCS over northeast Ohio is ahead of
an MCV over western Lake Erie. Sufficient instability is
downstream with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Abundant moisture is
present with 2.2" PW over eastern OH that will advect east with
the line. Deep layer westerly flow will keep the system
progressive overall, though development ahead will locally train
with a general 1-2 local 3" rainfall in the forecast into this
evening. 1hr FFG downstream is generally 1 to 1.5", so flash
flooding should be localized to areas with repeating activity.

Unlike areas farther west and south, recent HRRR and RRFS runs
have a decent handle on this convective line with potential for
another round development still ahead of the MCV later. The 15Z
RRFS is hotter than the HRRR with QPF per usual with a risk for 4"
along an axis that does not seem reasonable since the RRFS
depiction is confined too far north compared to reality from
NEXRAD. Flash flooding is considered possible and should remain
localized. This area is rather flood prone, so this area will
continue to be monitored and should a second line develop this
evening, a subsequent discussion would be needed.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!47VzgzNOLgCuChAJK6tKxA5O62HtKUe2NZ5hu7MYaG3Zm6x9_T3Zr8Ou1IdjdJrWzMlglAHuel817EdMgkjpO1LbCI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41887999 41777882 40607822 39227927 39077974
39788100 40298192 41078187 41678124

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:36:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170147
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-170500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
945 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Southeast VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170145Z - 170500Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms near and south of
Richmond will be advancing off to the southeast along the I-64
corridor over the next few hours. Some additional pockets of urban
flash flooding will be possible for a few more hours, including
areas around the Hampton Roads/Norfolk vicinity.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a cluster of
cold-topped convection across south-central VA that is propagating
off to the southeast toward the general I-64 corridor in between
Richmond and Norfolk.

The latest RAP analysis still shows a bubble of MLCAPE values
reaching near 2000 J/kg ahead of the small-scale MCS. This coupled
with a very moist column with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches and
relatively convergent low-level flow may allow the activity to
sustain itself for at least another 2 to 3 hours before then
gradually weakening due to loss of daytime heating and convective
overturning.

Rainfall rates with this activity will still be capable of
reaching 2 inches/hour, and since there are some cell-training
concerns seen in the current radar imagery, there may be some
additional highly localized 3+ inch rainfall amounts going through
midnight.

This may foster some additional pockets of mainly urban flash
flooding near the I-64 corridor and down toward the Hampton Roads
vicinity over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4r7NsiBW0KjX8OathikLNiz0jzRkL3UnvTA6CoAgfeAk8MleZWAdYaY20L1hbHabjXJ2ITtdjXDkp4PgpGacIjpeLZQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37667820 37647740 37487666 37067588 36557597
36587704 36857799 37287842

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:40:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161854
FFGMPD
OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-170053-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of Colorado and New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161853Z - 170053Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage across Colorado and New Mexico today, with at least a few
instances of flash flooding expected through 00Z/6p mountain.

Discussion...Abundant sunshine and mid-level moisture has
contributed to development of a few thunderstorms along higher
terrain from central Colorado southward through south-central New
Mexico. Storms are initially focused on terrain-favored
peaks/ridgelines while also moving slowly due to weak/marginal
steering flow aloft (less than 10 knots). Low-level easterly flow
was also encouraging updrafts via upslope/orographic forcing.
PWATs vary widely across the discussion area and are generally
between 0.75-1 inch in the immediate vicinity of the storms and
points to the west, while increasing to around 1.25 inch with
eastward extent across the High Plains. As storms continue to
expand in coverage over the next few hours, slow movement will
enable spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates to develop, which should
activate excessive runoff in/near burn scar areas on at least an
isolated basis.

Over time, storms will move slowly and erratically while
eventually forming clusters/linear segments especially from
east-central CO into central/northeast NM. These clusters will
continue to pose a flash flood risk through the evening hours as
they ingest higher PW air from the east while obtaining loose
organization, prolonging heavy rainfall locally. Areas of 2 inch
rainfall totals are expected, with flash flood potential remaining
enhanced near local sensitive spots/burn scars. This risk will
exist through at least 00Z/6p mountain time this evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6epi5goEMNPylpWvsTg1I3ch-YS1Q8gvR9Q2mHmMKvH3YcFq6l4mahLLny6CBdKYk7vYBu3OKegFZWu525doy_E_tgQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...EPZ...GJT...GLD...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40770552 40580455 39900295 38820249 37840247
36930287 35790336 33930428 32100504 32150705
32520838 33820869 35540813 36700707 37780687
39630666 40440645

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:40:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162223
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170219-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southern/coastal Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162219Z - 170219Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists across the
discussion area for another 2-4 hours (through 02Z/9p central).

Discussion...Deep convection persists on a scattered basis across
the discussion area, with slow westward propagation around a
mid/upper high centered over AL/GA. These storms have exhibited marginal/modest organization, with areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates
evident per MRMS. The storms also appear to be supported by a
weak mid-level vort max evident in model/objective analyses near
the area. The downstream, pre-convective airmass is plenty
supportive of maintaining updrafts with heavy rainfall (2 inch PW,
2500 J/kg MLCAPE), and with slow (5-10 kt) storm motions, isolated
flash flood potential could evolve especially if rain occurs over
local sensitive/urbanized areas. This threat appears to be
primarily diurnally driven, with a weakening trend expected after
about 01-02Z (9p central) in tandem with the onset of nocturnal
low-level cooling.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-6dOO2aRkewspy-L120yzhYyf0blxSAeprutEb8QmSNjOMJidyIq3Ctpch9DcQbC_XDUOoH_MVzhfgNXuCqhrP3dlrc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31599003 31328809 30848755 30268790 29768974
29939184 31199164

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:40:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162221
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-170219-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
619 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southern/coastal Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162219Z - 170219Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists across the
discussion area for another 2-4 hours (thorugh 02Z/9p central).

Discussion...Deep convection persists on a scattered basis across
the discussion area, with slow westward propagation around a
mid/upper high centered over AL/GA. These storms have exhibited marginal/modest organization, with areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates
evident per MRMS. The storms also appear to be supported by a
weak mid-level vort max evident in model/objective analyses near
the area. The downstream, pre-convective airmass is plenty
supportive of maintaining updrafts with heavy rainfall (2 inch PW,
2500 J/kg MLCAPE), and with slow (5-10 kt) storm motions, isolated
flash flood potential could evolve especially if rain occurs over
local sensitive/urbanized areas. This threat appears to be
primarily diurnally driven, with a weakening trend expected after
about 01-02Z (9p central) in tandem with the onset of nocturnal
low-level cooling.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!67u_mGhaUGUuKOxT3LmKE_WedZtlBOOUrr1PG1ZMooolpTbZH-REXDxUFEi2no3VlTsBwZzhhN2oBqBAj7ILAKNzKRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31599003 31328809 30848755 30268790 29768974
29939184 31199164

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 13:55:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162237
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-170236-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
636 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...northern Virginia into much of Maryland and the
District of Columbia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162236Z - 170236Z

Summary...A small cluster of thunderstorms could produce heavy
rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr as they traverse northern Virginia
and the Washington D.C. Metropolitan area through 02Z/10p eastern.

Discussion...A mature convective complex is current crossing the
central Appalachians and is approaching the discussion area from
the west -- extending from near Chambersburg, PA to near
Charlottesville, VA. Just ahead of this convective complex,
developing convection has focused near/just west of a warm front
and was located over western DC suburbs from near Sterling to
Winchester. Mean westerly steering flow aloft was enabling
east-southeasterly storm motions at around 20 knots or so, with
slightly faster storm motions noted with the approaching
convective complex. The airmass supporting storms is plenty
moist/unstable (2.2 inch PW, 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). The overall
scenario will support a continued, gradual increase in coverage
of storms across the discussion area along with areas of mergers
and rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr at times. These rates will
fall on urban/sensitive terrain, with local FFG thresholds near 1
inch/hr or so along the entire I-95 corridor and much of the
discussion area. These FFGs will be exceeded at times as storms
continue to evolve. Areas of flash flooding are possible for at
least a few hours (through 02Z/10p eastern) in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_HJ1l93EsF9P3Qys0BoNSWI3HiEWpBhwV3gY0nhKYjrsw1cVDpq3s7AfrNJyhLE2I1jNVC2FgEJXEostkQrkCI_uUP0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39707810 39577680 39057608 38087632 37967822
38477882

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:05:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161657
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1256 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois through Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161655Z - 162200Z

SUMMARY...Organized thunderstorms over western Illinois should
expand and intensify this afternoon as they shift east through
Indiana. Cell-training is possible with a localized flash flooding
concern rest of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An MCS that crosses northern MO this morning is now
over western IL. Ample instability is downstream with SBCAPE of
4000 J/kg. Abundant moisture is pooled ahead of this MCS as well
with PW to 2.1 to 2.2" extending east across central IN. Deep
layer westerly flow will keep the system progressive overall,
though development ahead will locally train and the bookends
should have prolonged heavy rain. Hourly rainfall estimates
currently around 1.5" should increase as activity further
develops. 1hr FFG downstream is around 1.5" over the northern half
of the discussion area while values are closer to 2" over the
southern half.

The warm start of the HRRR and RRFS have this organized activity,
but both kill it despite the unstable/moist environment, so they
are of little help. Much of the discussion area has recovered
fairly well from recent rains with main stem rivers remaining in
flood. Flash flooding is considered possible from the general 1-2"
rainfall expected with this activity through about 22Z.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9RfYNfl8341anGJgUdrHVg_nhLZYq-W5JG4Efn8tae2ocENv3A09EyJ6wRJ6PZmK6EhUNb6WDIpAd7PuObcWjJMzqdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...LSX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41028811 40628646 40278506 39628485 38828490
38808575 38578787 38358923 38489066 38939170
39609150 40189147 40629122 40879074

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:06:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170107
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-170705-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
906 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the High Plains and adjacent
southern/central Rockies

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170105Z - 170705Z

Summary...Flash flood potential lingers across the southern and
central Rockies, but will likely begin to focus from southeastern
Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and southwest Kansas
through 07Z/1a mountain/2a central.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to persist within a
couple of regimes: 1) along the central and southern Rockies on an
isolated basis where lingering instability is enough to continue a
risk of heavy rainfall despite widespread convective overturning
and 2) from northeastern New Mexico into southwestern Colorado,
where evolving convective clusters were interacting favorably with
a moist/unstable axis extending from there eastward into southwest Kansas/western Oklahoma. Steering flow remains weak, supporting
slow storm motions areawide amid PW values of ~1 inch in southern
New Mexico to around 1.5 inch in southeastern Colorado. Areas of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates remain with the dominant cells in this
regime, which is enough to result in local FFG exceedance and
areas of flash flood potential -- especially where heavier
rainfall interacts with burn scars and other sensitive terrain.

Through the overnight hours, flash flood potential will likely
focus from southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico
eastward to adjacent areas of the High Plains (KS/OK/TX). Here, a
well-defined moist axis and weak easterly low-level flow will help
to maintain any convective clusters that move slowly eastward.
FFG thresholds are generally in the 1-2 inch/hr range from
southeast CO eastward, and these values may be exceeded on an
isolated to scattered basis given the character of the approaching
convection. Flash flooding remains possible through at least 07Z
tonight.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8g64Rn8agd1kBos8iZEGBiqsJahRDnS84FsRB3UffMQI3FY-oTnXxEmT-PV_2GTmdyIX5z7why4xrMLqTS1ep4DzHqA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40910373 39340203 38209996 37189953 35940002
35360251 33910491 33490608 35480603 38220572
40270518

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:15:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162037
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-170234-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of Ohio into West Virginia, western
Virginia, and eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162034Z - 170234Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are expected through at least
02Z/10p eastern time this evening.

Discussion...An earlier complex of thunderstorms across central
West Virginia has now began to backbuild and orient parallel to
westerly steering flow aloft near Charleston, while additional
developing convection was noted upstream over western Ohio and
vicinity. The storms are embedded in zonal/westerly flow aloft,
with abundant upstream sunshine over the Ohio Valley and weak
mid-level shortwave troughs over the region aiding in scattered
convective development. The storms are in a favorable
thermodynamic environment for heavy rainfall, with 1.6-2.2 inch PW
values and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE prevalent to support ongoing storms.
Furthermore, 20-30 kt westerly 850mb flow was maintaining the
moist/unstable airmass into the region of convective activity
while further enabling a setup for both forward-propagating and
backbuilding convection.

The overall scenario is setting up for at least two rounds of deep
convection with heavy rainfall to occur through 02Z especially
across central West Virginia. Several areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates are expected given the environment, and these rain rates
should readily exceed FFG thresholds, which are low (around 1
inch/hr or less) areawide due to prior heavy rainfall and wet
soils. With multiple training and/or backbuilding bands of storms
expected across the discussion area (especially from OH into WV),
locally significant impacts are expected through 02Z/10p and
possibly beyond.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_3Q4uex8hk3cfPk3XCLafp5_m6Mi9-iIvg08fGsq9R4WcHNesqW_w_X2ulV37YFPitH-MatBUgP1bUuLKiX3BCPB-iM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX... PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40828280 40258078 39577948 38397961 37977964
37098000 36748050 36688183 36878291 37908426
38818514 40288527 40698432

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 14:21:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170235
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1034 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Central and Southern WV...Southwest
to West-Central VA...Far Northeast TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170234Z - 170600Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding will be likely over
the next few hours as heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to
advance down to the southeast.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a broken
MCS continuing to advance down to the southeast across eastern KY
through central and southern WV. The activity is associated with
the ejection of shortwave/MCV energy across the central
Appalachians.

An instability axis remains in place across areas of far southeast
KY/northeast TN and across much of southwest VA. However, the
greater instability profiles are generally over southwest VA east
of the Blue Ridge with MLCAPE values as high as 1500+ J/kg. Cloud
top temperatures have been warming a bit with the activity over
central and southern WV, but remain very cold over southeast KY
where enhanced rainfall rates of near 2 inches/hour are occurring.

It is possible that the portion of the MCS over southern WV may be
able to make it into areas of southwest VA where there could be
some convective regeneration given better instability situated
east of the Blue Ridge, but there is considerable uncertainty with
the details of the survival of the MCS downstream.

Areas upstream over southeast KY, far northeast TN, far southwest
VA and adjacent areas of central and southern WV are very
sensitive from recent rainfall. The latest radar and satellite
trends suggest at least locally an additional 2 to 3 inches of
rain may occur.

Given the wet/saturated antecedent conditions, these additional
rains are likely to foster some additional areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6Zn08jg1H5ROhDV9UYokjECmd9Q7AJuXUWRZ19vytuI2sFFy-2nSHYOKTS9_LvkO18EXfqkCassEXGwiH93VDHyVMF0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39407998 39007873 38347870 37387930 36618054
36318196 36218343 36598436 37238442 37838381
38368155

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 17:28:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171728
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-172230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...Southern Ohio into West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171726Z - 172230Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Ohio
will progress east through West Virginia rest of this afternoon.
Cell-training is possible over this sensitive area from multiple
days of repeating rainfall. Localized flash flooding can be
expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As of 17Z, scattered showers have expanded enough
over southern Ohio to warrant inclusion in a discussion. This area
is in a warm sector ahead of a cold front with about 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE and elevated moisture of 2.1" PW. Hourly rainfall estimates
over southeast OH have begun to exceed 1". 1hr FFG is low,
generally around 1" over this area and east through central WV,
from the excessive rainfall across the region over the past week.
This activity is oriented with the deep layer westerly so
prolonged rainfall is expected to continue.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have a decent handle on this activity
with a general 1-2" local 3" through 22Z. There has been a lack of
lightning so far with this southeast OH activity. Warm rain
processes will keep efficient production and the amount of
instability does suggest further intensification through the
afternoon is likely. Activity will clear behind the cold front,
but that won't clear this discussion area until later this
evening. A subsequent discussion is possible due to ongoing
activity after 22Z.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5N9oB9fyItfQoDuJHeaj6xF7NbDrzVNF8RShKXe4CACI_W_rzMJvmak6q2NtSp-kjYrqx3OBw5cGTATXBdAFIwiUj2Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40558342 40458176 40338034 40257857 39497892
38207991 37818051 38088295 38768444 39868473
40338421

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 18:54:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171854
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-180052-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...much of New Mexico, eastern Arizona, and far west
Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171852Z - 180052Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
and will continue to do so through the afternoon. A few instances
of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Radar/satellite mosaic imagery depicts
deepening/expanding convection across much of the southern Rockies
currently. The storms are primarily tied to terrain-favored
ridgelines initially, though a few areas across west Texas are
also tied to the presence of a mid-level vorticity maximum
providing ascent aloft in that area. Storms are embedded in very
weak flow aloft along with 1 inch PW values and 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE, supporting locally heavy rainfall with rates reaching
1-1.5 inch/hr at times. Unfortunately, some of this rainfall will
occur atop sensitive terrain and active burn scars that have been
facilitating excessive rainfall and flash flood impacts the past
few days. Given the aforementioned scenario and the expectation
that rainfall rates will exceed FFG (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) on at
least an isolated basis, a few instances of flash flooding are
expected through 01Z/7p mountain daylight time. Thunderstorms
along the Mogollon Rim should propagate southward toward/through
the Tucson vicinity as well this afternoon.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8jLT2SS1PRcJoTERsK0_9zReju4oE6LMNqHakYTy8V6awJn8dGdh8WrNPBs2hbfenu8j65UY4v-D1k3HFTen18ZwBx4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36840473 34160487 31800413 30630345 29660335
29480407 29870468 31020571 31610653 31780815
31310831 31461110 32201172 34021136 35990958
36790806

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 20:35:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 172035
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-180133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...eastern Tennessee, southeastern Kentucky,
southwestern Virginia, far northern Georgia, far northeastern
Alabama, western North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172033Z - 180133Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are producing local 1 inch/hr
rain rates -- enough for isolated to scattered flash flood
potential through 01Z/9p eastern.

Discussion...Abundant surface heating/destabilization has led to
several areas of scattered thunderstorms across the discussion
area so far this afternoon. The storms are in a very
moisture-rich environment (2+ inch PW), with sufficient
instability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE) present for strong convection with
locally heavy rainfall. Appreciable steering flow (approx 25
knots from the west-northwest) has tempered rain rates in most
areas, although local backbuilding in southwestern Virginia and
the abundance of moisture has both prompted areas of 1-1.25
inch/hr rain rates at times beneath storms. These rates are
falling on wet grounds from prior rainfall with FFG thresholds in
the 1-1.5 inch/hr range -- suggesting isolated to scattered flash
flood potential especially given sensitive/varied terrain across
the region.

The ongoing convective and flash flood trends should continue for
a few more hours -- perhaps through 01Z/9p eastern or so. Weak
mid-level shortwave troughs just north of the discussion area were
aiding in convective development and will continue to do so
through the evening. Additionally, increasing convective coverage
should lead to a few mergers/backbuilding that will locally
enhance rainfall potential and rates at times. Models/CAMs depict
a downward trend in convective coverage after dark (00-01Z), and
the flash flood risk will likely follow that same trend.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4kAbkW2W1Uiudhjs59gpMUDD6--zpIfvowu7xNMbk2FCXjlPsy4UBaSveOrgFxPVdR2-EO2wT37DEFM5dvbOiz8K9PA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RAH...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37408225 37348076 36977998 36348013 35288213
34358470 34678602 35548676 36268578 37248421

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 17 22:53:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 172252
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-180150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
651 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia, southern Ohio, and
eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172250Z - 180150Z

Summary...Some potential for flash flooding will persist for a few
more hours along the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the area.
Latest radar/satellite depicts scattered showers and thunderstorm
activity continuing to migrate southeastward across the region.
Areas of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5-2 inch PW continue along
and just ahead of a front entering the region from the northwest,
supporting continued heavy rainfall. Despite the progressive
nature of this convection, ground conditions remain sensitive to
additional rainfall, and FFG thresholds are generally in the 1
inch/hr range (locally lower). The moisture/instability combo may
result in spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates at times, though most
areas are experiencing 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rates due to 20-25 knot
storm motions. It is not out of the question that a few
additional instances of flash flooding occur over the next 2-3
hours given the sensitive/wet ground conditions. A cold front
over southern Ohio and northern Kentucky will continue to sweep
southeastward, ending the threat of heavy precipitation from
northwest to southeast through the early evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4WiNSwjHcjnaD0i6AGRiTmt8gwVZmqTXdLMkLuN8fA1TQmQsQsUu4rPHsB7soOyhas4Hicvoe7kr3xoPYWJ_4az-7dk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39678188 39498008 38937946 38547946 37808012
37558188 37488305 38698374

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 10:38:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181038
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-181530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
637 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Far
Northwest Missouri...Ext Northeast Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181035Z - 181530Z

SUMMARY...Short-term window for repeating elevated thunderstorms
in the wake of dying MCS/Bow echo. Rates of 1.75-2"/hr for 1-2+
hours suggest a stripe of 2.5-3.5" is possible and may result in a
spot or two of flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR denotes a decaying MCS/bow echo across
SW IA into N MO with well defined shortwave while a few bands of
elevated convection are developing WNW to ESE along the
rear-inflow jet for a loose "Bow & Arrow" appearance. Steepened
WNW to ESE isentropic boundary from older outflow and flanking
line is now ideally oriented for strong orthogonal convergence at
850mb with slowly veering LLJ in WAA regime. The LLJ is per KUEX
remains above 30-35kts and resides along the surface to 850mb
q-axis with mid to upper 60s sfc Tds noted across central KS to
south-central NEB. CIRA LPW shows core of 700-500mb moisture
aligning with slightly elevated values through the lower two
layers (sfc-850, 850-700mb) resulting in the enhanced overall
available moisture for TPW at or just above 1.75" for the core.
Mid-level cooling aloft is helping to steepen lapse rates for an
elevated upwind axis of MUCAPE along and west of the upwind edge
of the developing convective line(s), suggesting a bit more
back-building is possible over the next few hours. Given 2000+
J/kg of MUCAPE, updraft intensity to help inflow/flux convergence
should support 1.75-2"/hr rates. A secondary 800-700mb band is
also developing along the far northeast edge of the deep layer
convergence and northern edge of the instability/moisture
graident. While likely a bit less, the orientation is also
slightly favorable for repeating.

Obviously, in a 'Bow & Arrow' complex, the mean steering flow
above 700mb is parallel to the ascent plane and will help to
support repeating/training convection. Hi-Res CAMs are persistent
in earlier veering of the low-level flow and weakening expected
through the next 2-3hrs, but this is also a typical bias that
doesn't often pan out and the balance caused by the LLJ and
steeper outflow influenced isentropic surface especially as
instability remains in the upwind convergence zone. As such,
expect a stripe of enhanced repeating/training to result in
2.5-3.5" totals across central to southeast NEB through the early
morning. Recent rainfall has reduced FFG values across the area
with 1hr FFG less than 2" for most areas and less than 2.5"/3hrs.
MRMS Flash unit stream flow already suggests a solid stripe of
200-400 cfs/sqmi through Valley and S Greely heading toward NW
Merrick county. As such, localized exceedance is possible
suggesting localized flash flooding incident(s) are possible too.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4dC6BACDh9doxZ7yUTfPKTaYeGZGSTOorEnfxuUUakkcFflOiZYRSAU81Ug4tKcBkhL1hWRMuOtxboqVagrkq8U8ku4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42069773 42009624 41429506 40719433 39959454
39759504 39799597 40079725 40469845 40919913
41479905 41609811

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 18 21:18:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182118
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-190315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
516 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182115Z - 190315Z

SUMMARY...Growing organized convection across parts of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes through this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front will have the potential to produce hourly
rainfall rates up to 2.5" on an isolated basis. Repeating rounds
of storms containing these rates could produce pockets of 2-4"
rainfall totals and lead to at least isolated flash flooding
concerns.

DISCUSSION...Latest 2100Z radar and satellite observations depict
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms both along and
ahead of an approaching cold front crossing from the eastern MI
U.P. to far southern MN, with a weak wave of flow pressure
analyzed over northeast MI and the central MI U.P.. Mean layer
winds ahead of this front are out of the west and nearly parallel
to the approaching frontal boundary for some areas, which provides
potential for training/backbuilding storms for pockets prior to
the FROPA. Instability remains sufficient with SBCAPE of 2000-3000
J/kg in the region and MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg (per SPC's
mesoanalysis), with the greatest values over the inflow region of
IA and southern MN. PWs are also supportive of intense rainfall
rates with values widely above 1.5" into central WI and 1.75"
reaching into southwest WI. The primarily limiting meteorological
factor for heavy rainfall is the fast storm motions, so flash
flooding is contingent on the training/backbuilding risk.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs depict scattered coverage of 1-2" totals
through this evening, but with pockets of 2-4" amounts. This is
particularly evident in the 18Z RRFS across south-central WI.
Rainfall rates per MRMS have already reached up to 2.5"/hr across
southeast MN and going forward can be expected within the heaviest
cells. Backbuilding thunderstorms appear most likely across
southern WI as the front progresses southward and lays parallel
(east-west) to the mean flow by around 00Z. Another area to
monitor will also be located where the frontal boundary proceeds
to orient in a more east-west fashion across the Green Bay, WI
area and the northern MI L.P.. Regardless, mostly dry antecedent
conditions will keep flash flooding to a mostly isolated basis,
with urban centers naturally most at risk to impacts. FFGs vary in
this region, but are lowest (below 2" per 3-hrs) across southeast
WI and into northeast IL and may be more at risk by around 00Z
tonight.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-b33h-NaQy_HdCe0ANU9_WpMB4WYqk7sBu26RWqxCJfIoBoK8ixkngnr4LJoOS0Ho_3XIQEcmY2vpXKJ8I637SfGrCE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DVN...GRB...GRR...LOT...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45588625 45568509 45388427 44978390 44518428
44058522 43408564 42478585 42138734 42388974
42829134 43269204 43709182 43919017 44458863
45318755

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 03:03:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190302
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1086
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northwest to Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190301Z - 190900Z

SUMMARY...An expanding axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
overnight is expected, with rainfall rates capable of reaching 2.5
inches/hour. This coupled with cell-training concerns will favor
an uptick in the threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with GLM/LightningCast data shows a rapidly developing and expanding
axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms across northeast KS and
into far northwest MO. This activity is initiating in response to
a low-amplitude shortwave impulse advancing eastward across the
central Plains.

This energy is interacting with nearby proximity of a frontal zone
draped across central KS through southern MO with an ejecting wave
of low pressure along it fostering the advance of a warm front up
toward the Lower MO Valley. The upper support with the shortwave
energy is also facilitating an uptick in a southwest low-level jet
which should get some nocturnal enhancement overnight. This will
drive a strengthening moisture and instability transport regime
over the warm front and should further support the expanding axis
of mostly elevated convection across northeast KS and into
northwest MO. This in time will begin to advance or develop
farther downstream into central MO as well.

Cell-training concerns in particular will drive the increasing
concern for areas of flash flooding as the expanding shower and
thunderstorm activity will be aligned well with the deeper layer
steering flow. The 18Z HREF/REFS consensus supports some spotty 30
to 50 percent probabilities of seeing the 3-hour FFG values across
the region exceeded, with most areas in the 10 to 30 percent
range. This will be aided by an environment conducive for rainfall
rates reaching as high as 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger storms.

Localized swaths of rainfall totals reaching 3 to 4+ inches can be
expected by later tonight, and as a result, there will be a
gradual increase in the potential for flash flooding including
impacts to some of the larger urban corridors. The Kansas City
metropolitan area will be among the areas at greatest risk over
the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7cKN7nYE_DtpJT2r0qFjRfwVJ_xMpFOZ1svCh1ado1nneJg-_ysoPTVgjQhyIQPN1bmAeRgL4hIwGBUT2DcEKmt0wVQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40099612 39999402 39719285 39129171 38529130
38069147 37869220 38449422 38869597 39109688
39719700

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 09:07:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190907
FFGMPD
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-191400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KS...Central to Southeast MO...Southwest
IL...Far Western KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190905Z - 191400Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
areas of eastern KS through central MO early this morning, with
eventually areas closer to the Lower OH Valley seeing some heavy
rainfall potential as well. Some cell-training concerns will
persist, and this will maintain a threat for flash flooding given
high rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar imagery shows an axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
with some cell-training impacting areas of northeast KS down
through central MO. The activity continues to be driven largely by
the ejection of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the central
Plains which is interacting with an elevated instability gradient
along and north of a warm front lifting gradually northeastward
ahead of a surface low center over southeast KS.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted in close proximity to
the axis of convection, with PWs across the region are 1.75 to 2.0
inches. A low-level jet remains persistent over the area with
values of 40+ kts aimed toward eastern KS through central MO.

Speed convergence associated with the low-level jet coupled with
the thermodynamic environment and about 40 to 50 kts of effective
bulk shear should help sustain the convective threat through at
least the early morning hours. GOES Proxy Visible satellite
imagery shows an agitated CU/TCU field extending back a little
farther west into areas of east-central KS. Steeper mid-level
lapse rates associated with an EML are impinging on this area, and
the latest GLM/LightningCast trend data shows an uptick in
convective potential across eastern KS that suggests new
developing areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next
few hours.

Alignment of the ongoing convective activity with the deeper layer
mean flow will continue to support areas of cell-training. In
time, the larger scale convective mass should also begin to impact
downstream areas of southeast MO, southwest IL and possibly even
far western KY by mid-morning. Rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour will likely continue with the stronger storms over the
next few hours, with some additional spotty storm totals of 3 to 4
inches possible.

Expect at least some potential for additional areas of flash
flooding over the next several hours as this larger scale axis of
convection continues off generally off to the east.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_d_tmHAMqC5AC6apx5L35p4hINe2ZcifoXxd8fPavZJv35Vxy04npEpAX7yFMtRV70krXn0sScaM9VNpWsskwFMUrhQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39369548 39149307 38679079 38128911 37578816
36988835 36748921 37289128 37879374 38359591
38629724 39149713

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 15:52:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191545
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest Missouri...Ext
Southwest Iowa/Northeast Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191545Z - 192100Z

SUMMARY...Stripe of enhanced heavy rainfall with small developing
cluster/MCS due to moisture flux convergence and quick burst of up
to 2-3" totals (1-2 hours) across recently saturated soils
suggests isolated flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of rotating/broadening thunderstorms exiting
the eastern Sand Hills of northern Nebraska are starting to expand
with some upscale growth into a smaller, progressive MCS (as noted
in SPC MCD 2038). This upscale growth is supported by weak but
highly directionally confluent low level flow along a stationary
boundary that extends northeastward from St. Joesph toward Aurora
and into a mesolow near the cluster itself near Ord. Surface to
boundary layer Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s and modest
850-500mb moisture noted in CIRA LPW layers. Strong/sharpening
upstream shortwave combined with entrance to west to east 90 jet
provids strong upper level support to further expand to a broader
updrafts in the expanding cluster.

Downstream instability may be a limiting factor due to mid-level
cloudiness especially further south and east, but some clearing
immediately southeast of the cluster is starting to support some
surface heating and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg and slowly expanding
toward 2000 J/kg toward midday. Allowing for continued strong
updrafts, perhaps with isolated downstream development for
eventual repeating/mergers as the main cluster moves through.
Both conditions will increase local residency to allow for rates
of 1.5-2"/hr (given supercell/isallobaric enhanced moisture flux
convergence) to exist up to 2 hours as the cluster grows. As
such, localized totals of 2-3" are becoming more plausible
along/northeast of the front across SE NEB and eventually into NW
MO.

Hydrologically, this area has seen recent heavy rainfall and
saturation of the upper soil profiles with NASA SPoRT 0-40cm
ratios even up to 50-55% across the Loup Valley especially but
still in the 40s downstream into far SE NEB/Missouri Valley
proper. This is 75-85% of normal at this time of year and so
lower FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hr have good potential
of locally being exceeded. As such, spots of flash flooding are
considered possible through the afternoon hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8TtBQTCOrKdoog-T-kFrLjI6sdzEZY5cQHMGAopqBgjRVCEveF_OvJahQ-Weup7OdFJUYtovmuVnffHsEPxux7UOkWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42029854 41779731 41169600 40849523 40409484
39909509 39809578 40129720 40949840 41549889
41889895

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 18:55:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191854
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-200050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1089
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191850Z - 200050Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms along a nearby frontal
boundary extending across the Midwest and Ohio Valley may contain
rainfall rates around 2"/hr at times. Totals could exceed 3"
through 8pm CDT in spots and lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding within a region containing saturated soils. Uncertainty
remains with respect to coverage of the most intense rainfall
rates and will be monitored in future discussions if the flash
flood threat appears more significant.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaic across the Midwest and
Ohio Valley depict smaller scale showers/thunderstorms developing
along a slow-moving frontal boundary across southern IA, with
scattered storms also developing within the warm sector across
central IL/IN. This is all occurring ahead of an approaching short
wave diving across IA/NE and pushing eastward. This feature will
help spark additional thunderstorms that will focus along and just
south of the aforementioned frontal boundary.

Rainfall rates are expected to reach up to around 2"/hr given
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.5-2.0" in the area. 850mb flow
is relatively weak and out of the west (5-15 kts), but will shift
throughout the late-afternoon and evening as a mid-level wave
crosses the region. This will not only provide more focus for
thunderstorms, but weaken the flow briefly and maintain a threat
for slow-moving cells and/or cell mergers. These ingredients
support maximum rainfall totals over 3" and within a region where
6-hr FFG remains mostly below 3" due to extreme rainfall over the
past week or so. 1-hr FFG is below 2" for most areas and even
below 1.5" in parts of central IL and east-central IN/west-central
OH. Should the most intense rainfall rates overlap with these
sensitive regions, flash flooding would be more likely and could
be locally significant. These details will continue to be
monitored.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9q0CR2M_YGxLIpPgBRuKdnTSZLW0pGFiHdws82tUGO2Ej6Z-NqERdR-0MmBsj7kFtEDN_EVA64EDL4_Kc7fkOEYesRw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41339045 41258798 41138562 40738393 39858395
39158655 39038930 39599182 39819468 40809469
41069292

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 21:00:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192059
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of Central/Southern AZ and Southwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192100Z - 200300Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across parts of east-central AZ and
west-central NM are forecast to track southwestward into the
evening hours, with additional storm development anticipated
across southeast AZ. This will produce the potential for scattered
flash flooding. Rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr are possible and
rainfall totals may exceed 2" in south-central AZ.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery depicts a corridor
of cooling cloud tops along the Mogollon Rim of
central/east-central AZ into the White Mts and adjacent
west-central NM. These storms are tracking slowly southwest around
a mid-upper high pressure system situated over northwest AZ. This
will move thunderstorms off the higher terrain and into more
susceptible terrain/populated regions of south-central and
southeast AZ. SBCAPE values per SPC's mesoanalysis are more than
sufficient for strengthening updrafts, with 2000-3000 J/kg
available (much higher than this time yesterday). PWs are also
widely above 1" and peaking above 1.5" in south-central to
southwest AZ.

Latest HRRR and RRFS guidance (RRFS wider coverage of storms and
more aligned with ongoing conditions) depict scattered 0.5-2.0"
totals through 03Z, with hourly rates up to 1.5". Isolated pockets
of over 2" rainfall totals are also highlighted and supported by
12z REFS/HREF probs around 30-60%. Given the dry washes and rugged
terrain in the region, any storms passing over this and any
urbanized locations could quickly lead to rapid runoff and flash
flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5GWNL9cphV9JLkSM8X91ZKasiRWBSejEUre3XFWT9y3A-w7SXxFd1-mR1EtYLQQ_nsOfUMhXzisrh5YRXIILLCHbqe0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35131202 35081144 34451059 34191000 34190916
34520825 34300758 33730755 32680819 31690910
31251014 31181108 31371218 31931275 32891256
33851256 34581269 34921251

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 19 22:07:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192206
FFGMPD
OHZ000-200105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
605 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Parts of Central OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192205Z - 200105Z

SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of thunderstorms producing maximum
2-3"/hr rainfall rates situated across central OH is expected to
continue for at least the next few hours and lead to
additional/worsening instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar across east-central IN and central OH
depicts an east-west oriented line of training thunderstorms
parallel to a nearby frontal boundary and moving along westerly
mean layer flow. MRMS highlights this axis has produced up to 4"
near Bellefontaine, OH. Given the continued development upstream
and within an axis of greater MLCAPE, these storms should continue
for at least a few additional hours until around sunset, when the
instability gradient weakens and a strengthening mid-level wave
over the Midwest interrupts the better forcing and shifts it to
the south.

As this training band of storms slides east and eventually
weakens, additional areas of flash flooding are likely given 3-hr
FFG largely below 2". Some locally significant flash flooding is
possible particularly due to central OH still recovering from
extreme rainfall amounts over the last week or so.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5gt3f-0eC6uS6ujNS0f8pzabN0T_0oX0Y-3CeTj6owVqZ9llD8FAaZ8uIpyFThNb8mZTEBVTYJWJmxm7zwPIii8dicc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40688420 40598302 40478214 40348169 40018187
40038297 40088411 40138473 40548472

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 00:00:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192359
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois and Indiana into far southwest
Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192355Z - 200555Z

SUMMARY...Training bands of thunderstorms containing rainfall
rates of 2-3"/hr are likely to continue into the overnight hours
across central IL and IN, which will likely lead to additional and
worsening flash flooding over the region. This is particularly the
case given the area experienced extreme rainfall amounts over the
last week and ground conditions remain prone rapid runoff and
ponding of water where intense rainfall rates occur. Locally
significant impacts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest 2330Z regional radar and surface observations
depict a cluster of slow moving storms over west-central IL just
ahead of a diving mid-level shortwave across the Midwest, while a
separate training axis of thunderstorms was located over central
IN into east-central IL just to the south of a west-east draped
stationary front. Meanwhile, PWs in the Ohio Valley and Midwest
remain around 1.7-2.0" south of this front with westerly mean
layer flow parallel to the aforementioned frontal boundary. This
creates a ripe environment for training/backbuilding
thunderstorms. Additionally, instability remains sufficient for
updraft maintenance with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg across central IL.

As the mid-level shortwave continues to push eastward this evening
and early overnight, it will also slide a bit south and tug the
better forcing along the frontal boundary a tad south as well.
While this will aid the immediate convection in central IN from
remaining locked in place for longer than a few more hours,
westerly mean layer flow should still promote additional axes of
west-east oriented thunderstorms. The cluster of storms over
west-central IL is also expected to maintain before merging with
central IN activity and increase coverage of intense rainfall.
Rain rates have reached into the 2-3"/hr range and is above local
FFG in the region that falls generally below 2" per 1-hr. These
values are particularly low given the wet antecedent ground
conditions in place after extreme rainfall over the prior week and
prompt the inability for grounds to soak in additional rainfall
before it starts to rapidly runoff/pond. This may lead to not only
numerous instances of flash flooding, but some significant impacts
as well into the overnight hours.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9PUL82oOMA1-q5R8ClMQ8x9O3lonlchC0VtySXdPO9R0aNKrZjd8boOR8oXjW3jvWmZa-ZL4AmmtulUmoSK0PL0iqMM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41279024 41078933 40728845 40488728 40378590
39988475 39438445 39108534 39288742 39748931
40309042 40969076

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 02:05:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200205
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200803-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1004 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western
Kentucky, far northwest Tennessee, and far southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200203Z - 200803Z

Summary...Areas of training convection are expected to materialize
and cause instances of flash flooding through 08Z/3a central.

Discussion...Robust convective development was noted just
northwest of Poplar Bluff in the past hour. The convection was
likely tied to 1) increasing low-level flow across northeastern
Arkansas and resultant convergence in the vicinity of the
developing storms, and 2) the glancing influence of a passing
mid-level shortwave trough over northern Missouri. The storms are
also supported by very steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km based
on mesoanalyses and the most recent 00Z SGF RAOB). The lapse
rates and low-level moisture was supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
and 1.8 inch PW, respectively, suggestive of heavy rainfall
potential. While storms may move eastward at an appreciable rate
initially (~30 knots), increasing low-level flow/convergence will
eventually support development of a complex of storms that
exhibits some elements of forward-propagation, training, and
backbuilding over time.

Some concern exists that areas of repeating/training heavy
rainfall will occur over southeastern Missouri, which as
relatively low FFG in a few areas (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) due to
rain that fell over the past 24 hours between Poplar Bluff, Cape
Girardeau, and points northwestward. FFGs are slightly higher
with eastward extent into Kentucky, although 2 inch/hr thresholds
should be exceeded especially where heavy rainfall can persist
locally. Flash flooding is expected in at least a few areas given
the scenario, with the threat spreading eastward from Missouri
(initially) through central Kentucky through 08Z/3a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8WWSXNSDMt417hTAkoK2yK6RRfti9IuCGl_GTj6yDnGie8AZqacsa0YSYCmMvfc3Ys2oaYjoESTIOC1m38JZ4Hd0Npc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38068828 37888666 37208599 36548631 36178936
36649195 37689183 37929056

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 02:08:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200208
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200803-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1007 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western
Kentucky, far northwest Tennessee, and far southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200203Z - 200803Z

Summary...Areas of training convection are expected to materialize
and cause instances of flash flooding through 08Z/3a central.

Discussion...Robust convective development was noted just
northwest of Poplar Bluff in the past hour. The convection was
likely tied to 1) increasing low-level flow across northeastern
Arkansas and resultant convergence in the vicinity of the
developing storms, and 2) the glancing influence of a passing
mid-level shortwave trough over northern Missouri. The storms are
also supported by very steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km based
on mesoanalyses and the most recent 00Z SGF RAOB). The lapse
rates and low-level moisture was supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
and 1.8 inch PW, respectively, suggestive of heavy rainfall
potential. While storms may move eastward at an appreciable rate
initially (~30 knots), increasing low-level flow/convergence will
eventually support development of a complex of storms that
exhibits some elements of forward-propagation, training, and
backbuilding over time.

Some concern exists that areas of repeating/training heavy
rainfall will occur over southeastern Missouri, which as
relatively low FFG in a few areas (around 1-1.5 inch/hr) due to
rain that fell over the past 24 hours between Poplar Bluff, Cape
Girardeau, and points northwestward. FFGs are slightly higher
with eastward extent into Kentucky, although 2 inch/hr thresholds
should be exceeded especially where heavy rainfall can persist
locally. Flash flooding is expected in at least a few areas given
the scenario, with the threat spreading eastward from Missouri
(initially) through central Kentucky through 08Z/3a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8t1tNDI1r4r0vaGziV9ckwXl9VJJ1cXD5D9K7ZfVASWRXA9eSHTKdgQ-cf0Ne_hpCxEGOFpCzSPU5o0J2SeZ-w601xk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38068828 37888666 37208599 36548631 36178936
36649195 37689183 37929056

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 03:24:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200324
FFGMPD
AZZ000-200722-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1123 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...central/southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200322Z - 200722Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose a flash
flood threat for at least another 2-4 hours (through 07Z).

Discussion...Convection has been persistent across the discussion
area over the past few hours -- particularly in eastern AZ where a
weak mid-level vort max and elevated instability (1000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) has supported continued updraft development. Recent radar
mosaic imagery suggests upscale growth into a slowly
westward-moving complex tending from along the Mogollon Rim near
Show Low south-southwestward to near Tuscon. The combination of
weak northeasterly flow aloft and persistent convection
(reinforcing outflow) will enable continued westward propagation
toward a gradually more moist airmass (1.4 inch PW) supporting
increasingly heavy rainfall rates. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates
are expected to migrate westward through Phoenix Metro and
surrounding areas along with southern Arizona desert areas.
Sensitive terrain and urban areas could experience instances of
flash flooding in this regime. Flash flood potential will exist
through at least 07Z/1a Mountain/midnight Pacific.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5_GXIxa-2o-hesvJtbidlcUxCLPcSM-gZwZhQ3M8m0MuVNsjy8oqk-qjIzAfPj1yfbCNG7WnflN0y1w5ISNhXFIdqRo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35671195 35421003 34050964 31660999 31501133
32311419 35271397

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 05:33:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200533
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-200931-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/southern Indiana, southern
Ohio, northern Kentucky, West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200531Z - 200931Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues along the Ohio Valley
and vicinity.

Discussion...While a relatively focused axis of moderate to heavy
rainfall persists from central/southern IN into southwestern Oh,
heavy rainfall is confined to a couple of areas: 1) near Dayton
and vicinity and 2) near Terra Haute. Both of these areas reside
along a low-level boundary that has been convectively augmented by
outflow from prior storms. Both areas of convection are making
slow, but steady progress eastward toward areas that have low FFG
from prior rainfall (near 1 inch/hr in southeastern OH, 1-1.5
inch/hr in southwestern OH and points westward). Light southerly
low-level flow ahead of these convective clusters was helping to
maintain areas of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch PW values ahead of
the complex, and sufficient instability exists downstream to
maintain convection to the Ohio River and OH/WV border region over
the next 3-5 hours or so. Given wet antecedent conditions, soils
capable of excessive rainfall, locally sensitive terrain, and
ongoing 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates (exceeding local FFG), flash
flood potential is apparent with this activity for the next
several hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5AECKYQ68chlGruxB6yJud7Gf7EaEHAzDKOOiFONSri_O6Mv0xEUF0F3tNo75qO9Ko-V-OSTkbqBm_3NKGEVEucYrvk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40648241 40268085 39338048 38348059 37798180
38858712 40258740 40488527

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 08:19:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200818
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201417-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri, western/central Kentucky, western/Middle Tennessee, and far southern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200817Z - 201417Z

Summary...A mature convective complex remains capable of areas of
backbuilding and training. Flash flood potential continues.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a lead MCS from near
Bowling Green, KY to near Dickson and Dyersburg, TN. Additional
convection continues to backbuild near the Paducah and Cape
Girardeau, MO areas. Much of the convection continues to develop
in response to a southwesterly low-level jet over northeastern AR,
which was maintaining areas of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE on the western
sides of the convection. Low-level convergence was also maximized
an the northeastern side of this LLJ axis from southeast MO into
western TN. 1.9+ inch PW values and upstream mid-level lapse
rates near 7C/km continue to foster strong updrafts as well.
Areas of flash flooding remain possible, with the greatest
near-term threat focused across Cape Girardeau, Paducah, and
surrounding areas that are currently experiencing their second to
third round of heavy rainfall tonight. Spots of 1 inch/hr rain
rates are continuing to foster FFG exceedance in the areas.

Additional backbuilding is expected over at least the next 2-3
hours as the aforementioned AR LLJ veers and eventually weakens.
Westerly, unstable low-level flow will continue to provide a risk
of backbuilding convection especially across western/Middle TN.
Ground conditions are comparatively less sensitive in most areas
(drier antecedent conditions, 2+ inch/hr FFG thresholds),
suggesting that any flash flood risk may be tied to urban and/or
sensitive spots and may be more isolated in nature compared to
MO/KY although if backbuilding can be sustained across
western/Middle TN for multiple hours, the flash flood threat will
increase. The degree/extent of backbuilding and heavy rainfall
duration is a bit uncertain though.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6tnFcJuDM-3mmhPoiBOqp7K06VlXB-jCWmWEuHpNNt_Y8QTktsUNHxZtyHb4SGen-8j2AGmfD1bs74PO74Wv5bZb3Pg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JKL...LMK...LSX...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37908889 37778719 37218547 36458456 35328574
35068869 35308979 36529050 37719027

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 11:39:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 201139
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-201700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio...Northern West Virginia...Western Maryland...Southwest to Central Pennsylvania...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201140Z - 201700Z

SUMMARY...Solid speed, directional and upslope moist flow along a
training warm advection wing of MCV proving to be efficient rain
producer at 1-1.5"/hr. Low FFG and relatively saturated upper
soils through rough terrain support possible incidents of flash
flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and surface observations continues to
show a core of enhanced efficient rainfall just downstream of a
tight compact deep layer cyclone near ZZV moving east. VWP and
RAP analysis shows broad 15-20kt SSW flow through the Ohio Valley
quickly turning south along a well defined west to east
convergence axis downstream of the cyclone to south-central PA.
This is aligned with enhanced .66-.75" surface to 850mb LPW per
CIRA. Though moisture and flux convergence is solid, much of the
mid-level instability has been limited to about 250-500 J/kg.
However, with a fairly high elevated freezing level/WBZ level, any
shallow convection has been efficient in low warm cloud processes
allowing for 1-1.5" hourly rates near the core.

Also with upslope flow and cyclonic curvature and downstream
convergence along the effective warm front has been producing
scattered warm advective showers pre-cursory to the wave. As
such, these showers may allow for additional .5" prior to arrival
of heavier rains. Spots of 1.5-2" are probable through the
morning. The concern is the area has seen prolific rainfall over
the last few weeks and soil conditions are about 55-70% saturated
per NASA SPoRT 0-40cm LIS product which is about the 80-90th
percentile. FFG values about 1"/hr and 1.5-2"/3hrs have good
possibility to be exceeded along the potential repeating
convergence axis suggesting incidents of flash flooding are
possible through the remainder of the morning into early
afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ANFhV2_jXNh0O0TcprpAumkIVdDlx3Sw-EczTT215vYgTbk2PwBy-mxBOPOk88SRPMWe5uBFWJYMV3oUBM5_6YgWxs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41207837 40787761 40097778 39777837 39527920
39208064 39438182 40208194 41067989

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 15:57:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 201557
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-202200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Eastern PA...Northern NJ...Northern DE...Central
MD...Northern VA...DC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201600Z - 202200Z

SUMMARY...Approaching, sharpening deep-layer cyclone to interact
with increasing Atlantic moisture expanding thunderstorm activity
capable of very intense thunderstorms capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates
and localized 2-4" totals, especially after 20z. Some repeating
near the front increases potential for higher totals. Proximity
to urban coridor suggests scattered incidents of flash flooding
will be likely.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad long-wave trough across
the Great Lakes tightening into a confluent zone on the northwest
side of sub-tropical ridge over the Eastern Atlantic. This
provides a solid dynamic environment with strengthening
upper-level jet well denote by broaden cirrus canopy over N PA/NY
for a 100+kt 3H jet. The right entrance ascent pattern will remain
strong and a short-wave with a mature MCV is moving quickly
through E OH into SW PA providing strong dPVA to further enhance
divergence and outflow aloft. The return flow around the ridge
is providing the strong thermodynamics off the western Atlantic.
CIRA LPW surface to 850mb shows strong surge of .8 to 1" LPW
across E VA into MD where is is intersecting with a synoptic front
and increasing FGEN across SE PA. Mid-level moisture from the
Upper Ohio Valley is starting to stream through the terrain and
strengthening 850-700mb southwesterly flow to over 35kts per VWP
network, bringing over .5"+ in that layer to bring overall TPWs
from 1.8", increasing toward/over 2" after 18z.

Currently, the MCV is moving quickly along the surface front with
that FGEN forced WAA along and downstream providing sufficient
lift for scattered weak showers along the front along/ahead of the
wave. This will provide an additional .5-1" prior to the core of
the deep wave MCV with strongest moisture flux convergence.
Additionally, the depth of the warm cloud layer is over 12Kft and
so even the weak instability below that layer combined with the
enchained low level moisture is supporting efficient rainfall
production, so as flux increases near the deep layer wave, the
rates increase to 1-1.5"/hr; resulting in a stripe/streak of 2"+
north of the front.

GOES-Visible imagery shows clearing through the northern
Shenandoah Valley into south-central PA, broken cloud coverage
over central MD may limit some insolation, but strong theta-E flux
through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain sees Tds increasing above
72-75F already and tight western gradient can be seen in analysis
fields. This will likely lift and intersect the boundary toward
the 18z time period and timing of the arrival of the MCV. As
such, thunderstorm activity is likely to increase in coverage and
definitely intensity providing stronger moisture flux. MLCAPEs
forecast over 2000 J/kg along the Chesapeake Bay into SE PA
combined with the 2" TPW should allow for 2-2.5"/hr.

Longer/best convergence near the front may allow for increased residency/broader updrafts capable for 2-4" totals in 1-3hrs.
Flash Flooding will become more likely also in timing with peak
intensity crossing lower FFG (1-1.5"/hr, 1.5-2.5"/3hrs) both due
to hilly terrain but also increasingly urban settings along the
I-95/Delaware River Valley. As such, scattered incidents of flash
flooding are considered likely after 19/20z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8RxiZ05MrRWBr2yOFp56P1k8oPoM_jWNce4ckgdaNymfcV3zfSW9e80y6CtMulgIbWPR3334y-FIwntWZ2BUrDgsG48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41777507 41477428 40747406 40047469 39447565
39067650 38507742 38637811 39267814 39797792
40277865 40567878 40997858 41297789 41627671

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 19:34:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 201934
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-202200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201930Z - 202200Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing ahead of the approaching cells
farther west are capable of producing rainfall rates up to 3"/hr.
Flash flooding is possible this afternoon, especially in poor
drainage areas and within more urbanized communities.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite show a cluster
of storms have flared up north of a coastal frontal boundary
located over the northern DelMarVa Peninsula and into the Delaware
Valley. The environment is ripe for highly efficient rainfall
rates. RAP mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE has risen between 1,000-2,000
J/kg from the heart of the Chesapeake Bay to southern NJ. PWs are
quite high, ranging between 2.0-2.2" over the coastal
Mid-Atlantic. Brisk SWrly 850mb winds will transport this pool of
anomalous moisture aloft into the rest of southern NJ, where
instability is increasing and dew points are reaching the low-mid
70s. These storms also have exceptional vertical wind shear aloft,
as effective bulk shear values are >40 kts and effective SRH
values are between 100-200 m2/s2. This environment does favor
potential mesocyclones within developing storms, which does help
to further enhance rainfall rates.

MRMS 15-minute rainfall totals are topping out around 0.75" in
some parts of northern DE and southern coastal NJ. This suggests
ongoing thunderstorms are capable of producing 3"/hr rainfall
rates. The concern for flash flooding comes from the potential for
discrete cells over southern NJ and the northern DelMarVa ahead of
the approaching storms from northern VA, central MD, and
south-central PA. The 18Z HRRR shows the potential for additional
cells over the DelMarVa Peninsula that may flare up along the sea
breeze boundary. These storms could briefly back-build before
heading north and east towards the Delaware Bay. Farther north,
the increase vertical wind shear and upper-level forcing ahead of
an approaching 500mb vort max will foster excellent ascent aloft,
allowing for additional storms from the west to reach southern NJ.

Flash flooding is possible this afternoon and into this evening,
given the highly efficient rainfall rates that are both ongoing
and are still to come in areas currently receiving heavy rainfall.
Poor drainage areas and locations with greater influences from
urbanization are most at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7_n4PG8XRmbtStlLbQrXrgKANS7kV2CdJ20NqSpHd197vsSFPIAUlajgV7laJxH_RzqeZvnCU3eQGudNkOcRSUiigg0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40487409 40457393 40347376 40157374 39817387
39277405 38877425 38427460 38347504 38407552
38477590 38577613 38697627 38837637 39047638
39157613 39247591 39457558 39567536 39727507
39887486 40097460 40277443 40437424

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 21:56:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 202155
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-210330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 202200Z - 210330Z

SUMMARY...A strengthening low-level cyclone will tap into copious
amounts of atmospheric moisture and increasing instability to
produce excessive rainfall rates up to 3"/hr. Flash flooding is
likely this evening in parts of the heavily urbanized I-95
corridor. Locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding
is possible, especially north of the storm track.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite imagery shows a blossoming area
of strong-to-severe storms over southeast PA that are racing
towards the Delaware Valley, with additional storms heading for
the NYC metro. These storms are a byproduct of a volatile
atmospheric setup: a potent 500mb shortwave trough and a 250mb jet
streak's diffluent right-entrance region are providing excellent
upper-level ascent, while a strengthening low-level cyclone in
eastern PA happens to coincide within a highly unstable and
tropical air-mass.

PWs will range between 2.0-2.25" from the I-95 corridor on east
along the NJ Shore and as far north as the Tri-State area. Dew
points in southern NJ and the northern DelMarVa are in the low-mid
70s as well. MUCAPE is highest over the DelMarVa and southern NJ,
but a narrow area of 500-1,000 J/kg MUCAPE is available from
Trenton on north and east to Long Island. Effective bulk shear is

40kts and effective SRH is >100 m2/s2, giving storms the

potential to develop mesocyclones within them. 20Z HRRR area
averaged soundings show warm cloud layers at least 13,000ft deep
and low-mid level RH values >90%. These parameters are indicative
of an atmosphere primed to produce thunderstorms with highly
efficient warm rain processes, which when occurring over a region
that is highly urbanized, is ripe for flash flooding.

Over the next hour, storms will continue to move east through the
I-95 corridor and towards NJ. As the 850mb low moves east and
strengthens, WAA on its eastern flank will lead to wrap-around
anomalous moisture on its northern flank, placing parts of
northern NJ and east towards the NYC metro under a deformation
axis of 925-850mb FGEN aloft. This area of low-level FGEN is
already evident on SPC RAP mesoanalysis, and will continue to move
east this evening. Beneath the 925-850mb FGEN, a narrow corridor
of intense rainfall rates will unfold with hourly rates around
3"/hr likely. New 18Z HREF guidance suggests as high as 30-50%
chances for 1-hr and 3-hr FFG exceedance in northern NJ on east
through the NYC metro this evening.

Portions of northern DE and southern NJ already dealt with storms
over the past couple of hours that have saturated their soils.
Additional storms moving through will contain 2-3"/hr rates and
could cause additional flash flooding, especially in southern NJ.
Farther north over northern NJ, the NYC metro, and eastward to
Long Island, there is increasing concern for at least a couple
hours of 2-3"/hr rainfall rates before finally tapering off close
to midnight. These areas are most at-risk for locally significant
and life-threatening flash flooding with rapid water rises
possible on roads. This could in turn lead to worsening impacts to infrastructure that makes commuting challenging through the
evening hours.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_gxWXUfpmML6m8wAXp0iuji_aQFstiZrZY4YZ31jWWsckYKiUkS6nYrpvvvAoI4iLFhp9eLwAsJDKMWKyqGxx1SMa0w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41667357 41587303 41407282 41077270 40677273
40067320 39317360 38867413 38537468 38177552
38137625 38527733 38947704 39527620 40407602
40667596 41017559 41127488 41327443 41657388

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 03:51:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 210350
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-210949-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Alabama into northern
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210349Z - 210949Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists with a recently
developed cluster of convection near the Huntsville area. This
convection will slowly migrate eastward while producing areas of
1-1.75 inch/hr rain rates.

Discussion...Deep convection has increased in coverage and began
to congeal into a cluster near the Huntsville, AL area over the
past hour. The storms have formed near a cold front along the
TN/AL border and were being supported by weak ascent associated
with a mid-level wave over Middle Tennessee and a very
moist/unstable airmass along and ahead of the front (2+ inch PW,
3000+ J/kg MLCAPE), supporting efficient rainfall processes
beneath the storms. Furthermore, the storms were in an
environment characterized by weak steering flow aloft (10-20 knots
on average), supporting slow storm motions. The convective
cluster was exhibiting signs of congealing over the past 30
minutes or so, with multiple mergers and slow cell movement
fostering areas of 1.5+ inch/hr rain rates.

Over time, the congealing of this convective cluster should result
in gradual east/southeastward propagation toward northern Georgia.
Downstream areas contain FFG thresholds of around 1.5-2 inch/hr,
which could be exceeded at times given the favorable airmass and
slow cell movement. Downstream areas of sensitive terrain or
urban land surfaces may also be slightly more susceptible to flash
flooding. This risk should exist for at least a few hours tonight
-- perhaps through 09Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9m7-KLQPiZREhtKs-MhWIGy7rLUU3qbUejq8DY44DvJfkQ5eGKxtd78Dt_6Pe2uhj51Tw05Dhi4ZgvJZKH82oZxknsM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35088541 34878407 34438365 33768398 33458587
33918739 34908722

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 15:56:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211556
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-212145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1102
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Much of the Carolinas...Adj. East Central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 211545Z - 212145Z

SUMMARY...Environment for colliding boundaries and sufficient
organization to support 2-2.5"/hr rates with occasionally locally
higher 3"/hr rates probable. Potential for above normal scattered
incidents of 2-4" likely to result in localized flash flooding,
especially near multiple large metro areas through the Piedmont.

DISCUSSION...A favorable moist and unstable environment with
multiple sufficient dynamic elements to help generate strong,
efficient rainfall producing thunderstorms exists across the
Carolinas this afternoon. GOES-E WV suite shows a convectively
enhanced shortwave/MCV at the base of the larger scale trough
currently in Western NC along the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians with a positive tilt trough/orientation back across
central GA. This wave is lifting northeastward behind the initial
convective line. This convective line remains progressive across
SW VA with an outflow/convergence boundary draped southward across north-central NC. A surface front intersects the coast near
Jacksonville, NC before reaching a well defined surface low
northeast of Florence, SC; while the upstream stationary front
remains well defined toward Augusta, GA. However, a differential
heating boundary exists across north-eastern NC (east of the
aforementioned outflow boundary), so while post-frontal, solid
insolation and Tds in the low to mid-70s remain allowing for an
expanding wedge of SBCAPEs across much of eastern and central NC
with tight gradients and rising to 2500-4000 J/kg from near
Charlotte to the SE NC coast. The last piece of forcing is
related to failed convection/outflow boundaries across central SC
lifting northward off the surface frontal boundary; though
sea-breeze may be a contributing factor though not established at
this time.

Being at the base of the long wave trough with elongated
shortwave/vorticity feature along the Appalachians will support
and expanding right entrance region mainly across NC throughout
the early afternoon providing further divergence and deep layer
effective bulk shear around 25-30kts, suggesting a bit more
overall organization and less pulse-like up/downdrafts further
north across the area. However, with overall TPW values of
2-2.25" pooled along the boundary and toward the Atlantic coast,
the modest surface to boundary layer directional convergence may
over-come the weaker overall speeds but allow for quick vertical
ascent and moisture loading. Quick conversion to 2-2.5"/hr rates
are initially possible near the boundary. However, with the
shear/outflow and multiple colliding boundary potential, slow
moving, merging clusters should evolve allowing for localized
enhanced residency and occasional up-tick in rates toward 3"/hr
locally. By 21-22z, there should be scattered areas of localized
2-5", with higher areal concentration generally north and east of
the surface low, near the front.

Hydrologically, the most prone areas/lowest FFG align with the
Fall-line from Augusta to Columbia to Charlotte to Raleigh-Durham
all of which have a solid potential of being intersected by
thunderstorms. Given hourly FFG values less than 2" and 3hr
values of 2-2.5" if directly under the slow moving cells will
likely result in incidents of rapid inundation/flash flooding.
While FFG values are much higher eastward into the Coastal Plains,
FFG value of 3-4"/3hrs still may be exceeded given HREF
probability of 3"/6hr remains above over 50-60% within 40km of any
given point in the MPD area of concern and further expands to over
80% if extending out to 00z. All in all, a wet afternoon/evening
will see incidents of flash flooding but they may be more locally
focused at least initially.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ETGedN8zjbOvNmTcDZE9PGlmhPw2h4zc9p77JvLDVB5jJ3O5FQgCZASfMQ4ZiX4PmRtyuuTpvDqkD5c_W12gWv75E8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36167792 35707692 34857645 34687682 34417736
34187768 33807790 33737871 33767967 33498070
33138221 33528310 34688278 35818112 36087928

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 18:55:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211855
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-220100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern Rockies

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211900Z - 220100Z

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms over the Southern Rockies will
generate ~1"/hr rainfall rates in the most intense cells. Some
mountain ranges were hit with heavy rainfall last night, making
soils more susceptible to flash flooding. Flash flooding is
possible this afternoon with burn scars most at risk.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite shows bubbling towering cumulus
over the Southern Rockies that are starting to produce
thunderstorms over the Sacramento, the Mogollon and Gila
Mountains, and the CO Rockies. The Southern Rockies are set to see
developing storms in an increasingly unstable environment that
will contain >500 J/kg SBCAPE and PWs >0.75". The region dealt
with rounds of storms yesterday, causing soil moisture percentiles
to exceed 80% per NASA SPoRT-LIS. There is a little less
instability than yesterday, however with recent rainfall causing
soils to be more sensitive than yesterday, localized flash
flooding could occur where rainfall rates approach 1"/hr within
slow moving storms.

As outflows emanate away from the first round of storms this
afternoon, additional storms may flare up in the early evening
hours. Flash flooding is possible again this afternoon, primarily
in areas with more saturated soils and the typical worrisome areas
(burn scars, steep terrain).

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_QsqiKdlAieq4uP2DfkqygiDos39ZNBKduYxP0NdrVqq6pmElRnPXk7eGDD_rMF-Le6VKwj-Szkx0GjzigmsmJGP0ys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38730653 38520552 38100513 37210505 36510520
35570545 34890535 33530532 32790540 32610594
32690621 33250620 33720623 34080687 33790733
32990760 32750822 32830866 33140895 33910898
34240895 34950890 35570871 35450808 35570753
36110736 36700753 36920787 37210815 37410839
37580862 37860875 38250873 38440862 38440818
38290740 38310677

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 19:31:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211931
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-220030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Central to southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211930Z - 220030Z

Summary...Recently fired convection across central Georgia could
produce flash flooding downstream through Southeast Georgia, where
favorable instability (2000-3000 ML CAPE) & moisture (1.5-2"
PWATs) are present.

Discussion...Convection initiated along a pre-frontal surface
trough oriented West to East across central Georgia. These storms
are expected to propagate southeastward into a substantially moist
and unstable environment. Precipitable water values between 1.5-2
inches in southeast Georgia/northern Florida combined with a mixed
layer CAPE environment of 2000-3500J/Kg will support rates in
excess of 2"/hr

Hi-res guidance suggest a scattered heavy rainfall footprint with
pockets of 1-2" rates and isolated 6 hour totals of 2-4" in parts
of southern Georgia. Flash flooding is possible, especially in
vulnerable areas from recent rainfall and poor drainage spots.

Kebede

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_3JQ6Q0r4zPscfAl44KVKzdULQ9jSQdd2OOlRlV-QLcuSjMNOIxW0M7NuZdUxS749Na9VMKvvlOpb9kUIGR03Xv8CQE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33638271 33628209 33378161 32748154 31888180
30878254 30368368 30458479 30838548 31428570
32038532 32658418 33128337

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 20:01:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212001
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1105
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212000Z - 220200Z

SUMMARY...Robust and slow moving thunderstorms will be capable of
producing torrential rainfall rates >3"/hr this afternoon and
evening. Flash flooding is possible, especially in poor drainage
areas and in more urbanized settings.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis showed a surface convergence
boundary located just north of I-10 with a cold front farther
north and working its way south. GOES East and Doppler Radar show
thunderstorms have formed in an environment that is primed for
producing torrential rainfall rates. RAP mesoanalysis shows PWs
are >2.0" and MLCAPE ranging between 2,500-4,000 J/kg. 18Z HRRR
area-averaged soundings within the at-risk area show warm cloud
layers nearly 14,000ft deep and RH levels within the 1000-500mb
layer are likely to top 80%.

Storms are forming within an environment that will see increasing
850-300mb mean winds out of the NW, directing any storms north of
I-10 towards the I-10 corridor this evening. Storm motions will be
slow at their onset, with MRMS instantaneous rates >3" in some of
these initial thunderstorms. Slower moving cells could generate

3"/hr rainfall rates before either dissipating or drifting south

towards the Gulf Coast. FFGs are fairly high in southern LA and
southern MS, with some areas in southern AL and the FL Panhandle
that have 1-hr FFGs <2.5". Given the higher FFGs, soils will be
able to handle most of the intense rates. That said, areas where
storms are slow to move could lead to flash flooding in poor
drainage areas and in more urbanized areas (ex: New Orleans/I-10
Corridor). Flash flooding is possible in these areas through the
early evening hours.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4nH2liy1Ah1AslCW-kxRzvpb5A6W9bkbgTy8TzmRj54VCqIppgTqzraHHnUvB8qRgbEoDOQVKVSv0T0oLTgjcB9v3Ik$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32649186 32629118 32479074 32289032 32198996
32108920 32138828 32178802 32288730 32188679
32088633 32018597 31888565 31608565 31318575
31168613 30988635 30728674 30458705 30218767
29758878 29678942 29668989 29719055 29929106
30419152 30859188 31359217 31839222 32389217

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 21:13:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212113
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern & eastern Nevada...western Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212110Z - 220300Z

Summary...Storms initiating along a pair of surface convergence
axes oriented north-south from the Desert Southwest into the
southern Great Basin respectively could produce flash flooding
within zones of favorable ambient moisture, instability and soil
moisture.

Discussion...Radar indicated convective cells initiating across
the state of Nevada will continue propagating northward within the
broad anticyclonic flow of an upper level ridge centered over the
Four Corners this evening. Shortwave impulses embedded within the
larger scale ridge will fuel storm initiation/development through
the Great Basin.

Cells initiating along a surface trough near Elko appear to also
be forced by shortwave energy aloft. Favorable precipitable water
values between 1-1.3" could be sufficient enough to wring out
enough rainfall to produce isolated instances of flash flooding
over relatively dry soils. A pool of 500-1500 J/Kg ML CAPE over
southern Nevada will continue to support the enhancement of cells
that initiate along the inverted surface trough running through
the region over the next few hours. PWs between 1.5-2" are more
than enough to generate flash flooding over the arid southern
Nevada environment.

CAMs suggest cells capable of producing rainfall rates of 0.5-1"hr
over eastern and southern parts of the state over the next few
hours.

Kebede

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8xiGg9JlpDnUJPrqJeK2nTunZ0g6MKJWXc_8qRf0JPorGAnMxTSrrufIR995ypZu26xo9Q2sMso2axJgmrXfCEvWqC4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40701429 40211358 39171369 38081369 36811361
36191432 36101536 36601613 37561660 38691672
39871625 40551548

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 21:41:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212141
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-220330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1107
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 212135Z - 220330Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding are likely this
afternoon and evening as thunderstorms produce rainfall rates up
to 3"/hr. Locally significant impacts are possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES East shows numerous thunderstorms from eastern
GA on north and east through the Carolinas and into southeast VA.
RAP mesoanalysis highlights a tropical air-mass over eastern NC
and central SC with PWs between 2.2-2.5" in place. Despite storms
having used up some of the available instability, MUCAPE continues
to show 1,000-2,000 J/kg from northern NC to the central NC, and
2,000-3,000 J/kg from central SC on east through southern and
eastern NC. HRRR area-averaged soundings show warm cloud layers up
to 14,000ft deep, indicating a fairly deep column of highly
efficient warm rain processes ongoing.

The frontal boundary responsible for initiating these storms over
the heart of the Carolinas, along with outflow boundaries nearby,
will continue to develop additional storms through the early
evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing 2-3"/hr
rainfall rates in areas that are seeing soils quickly saturate.
Storms will move ENE towards the Carolina coast and storms may
propagate far enough north to approach the VA Beach/Norfolk area
this evening. Additional flash flooding is likely with locally
significant flash flooding possible, especially in areas where
back-building and training thunderstorms occur.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-0uhGj688aOQIM9zjnbI47amsaSfuQBhFGKLVP2_SOlR76nSgl__ehxwNLIO78YaofB_vkOY84g-rqU-VswztSI4PLU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36947662 36937609 36847583 36667569 36137556
35607537 35207550 34887579 34547630 34407661
34377703 34327719 33957768 33377802 32797946
32548037 32568129 32658184 33048217 33318214
33568194 33858153 34478093 35038058 35638029
36107959 36167922 36427880 36557839 36737766

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 22:35:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212234
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-220400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern WI...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212230Z - 220400Z

SUMMARY...Potent thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front
will be capable of producing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates and
localized max rainfall totals of 2-3" through this evening. Some
training thunderstorm activity is possible, potentially leading to
areas of flash flooding this evening. Urban locations and poor
drainage spots are most at-risk.

DISCUSSION...22Z surface analysis showed a cold front racing south
and east through the heart of the Midwest being the culprit for
initiating scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Some
storms have formed out ahead of the front in far southern WI and
northern IL as well. RAP mesoanalysis indicates the air-mass ahead
of the front is highly unstable with MLCAPE approaching 3,000 J/kg
over Iowa's nose. PWs are above 1.5" from the IA/IL border on east
across northern IL. The 12Z DVN sounding showed a sounding
favorable for discrete cells with effective layer shear between
35-40 kts and effective SRH >100 m2/s2. The sounding also showed
the warm cloud layer was generally 10,000ft deep.

Between the shear, more shallow warm cloud layer, and drier
mid-level RH values, the soundings suggests the environment
overall should limit the areal extent of the flash flood
potential. Not only that, but mean cloud layer winds are 26 kts,
so most storms will be moving along. That said, storms firing
ahead of the cold front have moistened some of the soils in
southern WI and northern IL to the point where additional storms
that have produced between 1-1.5"/hr rainfall rates. 1-hr FFGs in
some of the more urban areas of southern WI and northern IL are as
low as 1.5". Latest 18Z HREF does show some low-to-moderate chance probabilities (20-40%) for 3-hr QPF surpassing 3-hr FFGs near the Chicago/Milwaukee metros.

With these storms also encroaching upon the more populous areas of
southern WI and northern IL, excessive rainfall rates approaching
2"/hr could lead to flash flooding in poor drainage areas within
more heavily urbanized environments. Given those factors,
progressive but potentially multiple rounds of storms could lead
to some cases of flash flooding this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Q4fg3DQJjQL5KUna1-7Wi3x0V-DyRkW3POtQtGREqnD-XkSooKRJjXWss6zF73nd1IsNKvQYntWlCgIb3pUlEFJFCY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43968929 43898887 43808864 43608831 43368800
42808769 42358764 41978761 41628771 41298823
41188900 41318984 41499039 41619076 41879125
42269135 42609111 42899066 43419019 43678993
43898968

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 11:12:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221111
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-221630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Central Oklahoma...South-Central Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221110Z - 221630Z

SUMMARY...Narrow band of slow moving elevated storms with
favorable orientation for possible repeating along the I-35
corridor places a few urban centers at risk of possible localized
flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR shows expanding line
of scattered cooling tops oriented favorably along/near the I-35
corridor from south-central KS into Central OK. Tops have been
cooling fairly quickly nearing -70C aligned with core of deep
layer moisture but also conditionally unstable air with spine of
2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 1.5-1.75" total PWat. CIRA LPW animation of
Sfc-850 and 850-700mb layers show this weakly curved arc of
enhanced moisture. Low level flow is generally parallel to the
band through 850mb, though 700mb westerly flow is more orthogonal
to the moisture/instability axis likely convergent near the base
of the elevated instability within the vertical profile to seed
the scattered development. Low level southerly to
south-southwesterly inflow response likely further helped to
deepen the vertical depth of the cells, so given the shear though
the layer; cell motions have been slow.

Additionally, while the RAP shows some modest divergence aloft,
animation of GOES-E WV shows a very tight anticyclonic ridge axis
through western OK; likely providing greater than analyzed
divergence for further vertical ascent and outflow for some weak
organization and maintenance of the updrafts. So many conditional
elements have come together for greater than forecast convective
development this morning per Hi-Res CAM suite. While the 09z RRFS
has backed off, the 06z run was more in line with this evolution
and given the natural bias of the RRFS to be a bit more aggressive
with convective initiation in a capped environment (relative to
other CAMs, esp. the HRRR), this seems to be a solution to provide
some guidance in the near-term.

Given the instability, rates and 15-20kts of 700mb flow (as well
as southerly 20+kts of boundary layer inflow), moisture flux is
supporting 1.75-2"/hr rates. However, the weak inflow and veered
profile does hint at weaker overall deep layer convergence, so
updrafts are a bit narrower than ideal for repeating training.
Still, the 700-400mb steering flow along the shortwave ridging in
W OK, may allow for some locations for repeating, though slow cell
motions will likely be the best way to result in increased
residency for spots of 2-4" totals. Given the recent dry
conditions FFG values are higher with exception of north-central
OK where 3hr values are 2-2.5" compared to 3-4"+ further south.
Still, the placement of the line is nearly directly along I-35 and
places larger urban centers in proximity from Wichita to Ponca
City/Stillwater into the Edmond/OKC/Norman areas. So, if ideal training/repeating can align, these will be the areas of greatest
localized flash flooding potential this morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4mdLFXAfqzyTZHNYrztkM78ZL07jvd05XKuNAZiUHvcyDa2btJ4sl_MCid49r0JJMGc1HkoXUvz4fj3-_QgE_mRSKoQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38439827 38119752 36419658 35169636 34199677
33989742 34339778 35449759 36679785 37479818
38149842

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 13:48:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221348
FFGMPD
MIZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
947 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Lower Peninsula of Michigan...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221350Z - 221930Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr with
localized slow motions further north and back-building/repeating
further south may allow for localized flash flooding concerns
through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows a broad longwave trof centered over
the LP of MI this morning with a stronger upstream shortwave
digging out of WI providing height-falls and
strengthening/sharpening of the surface low near the Mackinaw
Strait with an attendant cold front angling southwest just
crossing the far southeast side of Lake Michigan into SW MI at
this time. A upstream exiting MCV between Lake Erie and Ontario
allows for broadening downstream portion of the longwave trough
with solid diffluence aloft to promote ascent along and well ahead
of the cold front. Instability has been a limiting factor
through eastern MI but RAP analysis modified by recent surface
temperatures suggests weakly capped 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
reducing to 250 J/kg in far E MI, with initial, early morning
convection exhausting much of it. However, that convection helped
develop a WSW to ENE boundary and with favorable southerly
component to low level winds and available unstable air has been
able to develop stronger flanking development with somewhat
favorable orientation to the deep layer mean flow to increase
residency.

Surface Tds in the low 60s and modest mid-level moisture with the
effective warm conveyor pressed eastward is limiting overall
available moisture to around 1.25"; so localized convergence/flux
will be the driving force for rates of 1.5" with occasionally
higher localized peaks. This is falling generally over the core of
the sandier soils of central LP where FFGs are high, but proximity
to urban locations along the I-96 corridor may still pose urban
flash flooding, but at least prep the area for later developing
convection from the cold front toward early afternoon.

Further north, as the shortwave sharpens the mean steering flow
will reduce in the trough especially along/east of the
strengthening surface wave. So cells will increase in residency
toward NE LP. This is also where FFGs are naturally a bit lower
with spots of 1-1.5"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hrs. As such, with
multiple rounds and possible mergers due to the sharpening/pivot
in the line, localized totals of 2-3" are possible and may result
in localized flash flooding concerns toward afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4xiNpVCFzN2qThmE28vTqjO539G32q2S7CzUK7cGTEMXSWszUwgDYZqu0rpyflaj49cKB7d3FfV2XdPYQYsTv_mAUb0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...GRR...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45408442 45358357 44998319 44348316 44148285
43718246 42678240 42378281 42188307 42148364
42158500 42578530 43298490 43808493 44228553
45058512

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 14:50:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221450
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...Middle to Lower Chesapeake Bay Region...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221450Z - 222030Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/training warm-cloud efficient rainfall
production to 2.5"/hr pose localized flash flooding with 2-4"
totals in 1-3hrs.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV and Regional RADAR shows a shortwave
feature moving northeast in the warm conveyor belt southeast of
the tip of the Delmarva Peninsula; while the expanding right
entrance region of a 80-90kt 300mb jet remains directly overhead.
This direct circulation is tightening (FGEN) a SW to NE
convergence/deformation zone across South-central MD into southern
DE. An axis of modest but sufficient low level unstable air
existed through the lower Chesapeake Bay with a wedge of 1000 J/kg
of MUCAPE residing along this axis of deep layer moisture
convergence. As such, shallow thunderstorms developed across
Charles to N Calvert county and extend through the Bay toward
Talbot county. The shallow nature though with solid moisture flux
through channeling up the Bay supports efficient
tropical/warm-cloud rainfall production to support 2-2.5"/hr
rates. In addition, localized frictional convergence along the
edges/inlets of the Bay has resulted in more scattered/isolated
but equally efficient heavy rainfall producing cells. Deep layer
steering and fairly stationary right entrance region suggest slow
forward propagation through the Bay toward the Eastern Shore over
the next few hours.

Observations so far of 1.5 to 3" in about 60-90 minutes and while
the area is fairly sandy in soil type, MRMS Flash response is
reaching 200-300 cfs/sqmi suggestive of localized flash flooding
may be starting soon. Hi-Res CAMs all generally show a core of
2-4" additional totals through 21z, mainly focused directly over
the Bay and nearby coastal areas, though some solutions hint of
higher localized totals of 5"+ as well, suggesting flash flooding
will remain possible into the afternoon hours across the Delmarva
Peninsula, Southern Maryland and the northern Neck of VA.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_YOVvD65o7Ijq40qETmzOtIav92mqyLNb1lghxYAoYJ0ST4_2nEbsCdGsChgVp5-Z48O8FZnZU3QcvKuSMa9TqzXMY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38917573 38667525 38287505 37747541 37497564
37467600 37797669 38177699 38567702 38907660

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 18:01:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221801
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...North & Eastern OH...Western PA...Far Western
NY...Far Northern WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221800Z - 222300Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms capable of
1-1.5", suggest random intersections resulting in widely scattered
spots of 1.5-2.5". Low FFG (<2"/3hrs) and larger urban areas
suggest incidents of flash flooding are possible this afternoon
into evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows broad long-wave trough across the
Great Lakes with an upstream strengthening/digging shortwave
crossing Lake Michigan which is starting to result a developing
triple-point in central LP of MI as the main surface low in NW
Lake Huron continues to strengthen. A southern stream
wave/vorticity center is well defined across south-central OH
helping to direct the effective warm front from near CLE to ZZV
and UNI eastward with enhanced low level moisture and higher
Theta-E air pooled along it, with MLCAPEs reaching 2000 J/kg,
where warm conveyor belt moisture is also peaked around 1.3-1.5"
for TPW. Surface to boundary layer convergence from SW to SE
across the boundary has resulted in broad convective development
though cells updrafts are broadening, they remain widely spaced
with some hints of multiple north-south oriented bands.
Increased convergence near lake-breeze off Erie, further enhances
shower activity. Given the moisture and solid instability rates
of 1-1.5" are more likely, but totals will probably be in the 1"
range given forward propagation/cell motions eastward are
expected.

Upstream, initial cluster of thunderstorms over SE MI is sliding
into the slightly increased unstable air over north-central OH,
while further convergence along the cold front across
south-central MI into NE IND is starting to build overall as well.
Compared to the warm front, mid-level moisture is a bit less and
overall TPWs are closer to 1-1.25" but directional and speed
convergence may allow for cells to be comparable to the eastern
warm front band, but still similarly progressive and likely to
result in peak of 1" totals; so no one cell is likely to exceed
even the lower FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr. However, given the
increasing coverage and broadening updrafts intersecting
footprints from each round may allow for widely scattered spots of
1.5-2.5" by 00z and with 3hr FFG in the 1.5-2" range especially
along I-70 in central OH to W PA (~2/3hrs across N Ohio) incidents
of exceedance are considered possible this afternoon into evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!57BK0MC42KRlVZxL4NhL7XX9JpU-ovFItYT1XQaeCpEuColPVwMAaN6hwbXx_1lzuSXdDF5VwKb5i9iaWicukw2eNRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42607899 42237837 41297833 40787882 39067998
38988142 39398255 39898334 40788374 41398370
41718319 41558246 41838140 42168054 42278010

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 22 20:49:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 222049
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-230215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...central Rockies into the High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222046Z - 230215Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will be capable of isolated to
scattered flash flooding across the central Rockies into the
adjacent High Plains through the evening. Rainfall totals of 0.5
to 1.0 inches in 15-30 minutes with 1-2 inch totals are expected.

DISCUSSION...2030Z visible satellite and area radar imagery showed
widely scattered thunderstorms underway across northern NM into
eastern UT, western/central CO and southeastern WY into the
adjacent High Plains of WY/CO. The environment across the region
contained near average to 150 percent above average moisture per
blended TPW imagery from 19Z. MLCAPE was relatively weak over the
terrain, about 250-750 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis data and the 18Z
GJT sounding. Instability was higher but mostly capped across the
High Plains due to warm temperatures near 700 mb and insufficient
moisture in that layer. However, the Rockies were also situated
beneath a ridge centered along the CO/NM border with weak cell
motions of ~5 kt or less from northern NM into eastern UT and
central CO. Wind speeds and shear increase across southeastern WY
into eastern CO where greater capping currently exists, but a
narrow region of greater instability and weaker inhibition was
located along the Front Range into the Laramie Range where some
stronger and slower moving cells were observed.

Expectations are for continued thunderstorm development over the
next couple of hours with slow and erratic movement around the
ridge. In addition to slow movement, outflows and storm mergers
will likely contribute to briefly enhanced rainfall rates with
15-30 minute totals in the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range. Given effective
bulk shear of 25-30 kt from southeastern WY into portions of
northeastern CO, better potential for cell organization will exist
across these regions but so does forward speed especially with any
congealing clusters of cells that should forward propagate,
limiting rainfall duration. Isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding will remain a possibility, especially should there be
overlap of slow moving cells with sensitive burn scars.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Zs5kwTXQeNzWCgqbkgYtAIc_2hyeCsnz91tEuty7eJq9cBJBlc8cfvuHYcqJU4eGJ1zU7x5BZKqX4Wib6Hyqgh5PwY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...RIW...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42720586 42610469 42130407 40790382 39080421
37920438 36880488 36260618 36390794 37350961
38730992 40330926 41900765

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 00:47:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230047
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-230515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...central PA into central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230042Z - 230515Z

SUMMARY...A threat of flash flooding will continue over the next
few hours from portions of central PA into central VA. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level water vapor and GLM imagery from 00Z showed
scattered thunderstorms from eastern OH/WV into PA and portions of
west-central VA, located out ahead of the base of an amplifying
upper trough advancing across the OH Valley, with a couple of
leading vorticity maxima at the leading edge. Radar imagery showed
a few slow moving and repeating cells over west-central PA and
north-central VA (Green, Madison and Culpeper counties) resulting
in a broken north-south axis of FLASH Unit Streamflow responses of
200 to 400+ cfs/sq mi and likely a few areas of flash flooding
embedded within. Many of these cells are about to be overtaken by
eastward propagating boundary from the west, located from near
Philipsburg, PA to Cumberland, MD to Waynesboro, VA, advancing
between 25-30 kt toward the east. However, the environment out
ahead of the advancing line contained 500 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
(highest to south) and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches via the 00Z LWX
sounding and the 00Z SPC mesoanalysis, resulting in localized
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches.

As the mid to upper-level trough continues to advance east early
tonight, thunderstorms will follow suit with movement from west to
east over time. Decreasing instability with time for some
locations (especially northern and eastern PA) combined with
mostly progressive cells should limit the flash flood threat.
However, increasing instability over northeastern MD into
southeastern PA and the potential for convective development out
ahead of the main thunderstorm axis and/or alignment of cells with
the mean southwesterly steering flow may result in peak hourly
rainfall in excess of 2 inches. Total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected from central PA into central VA, but portions of the
northern Mid-Atlantic into eastern PA have received above average
rainfall over the past week (200 to 400+ percent of normal).
Therefore, locations with above average soil moisture, coupled
with any urban locations, will be at higher risk of flash flooding
should brief training setup through ~05Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!94Psq17KuIqjhoQNtSLrC3FCYxk2wUKBMWAiEAvo3EEiDUpaMUgvKZ-MJmDHxiJiNE3-8n1YOia3M5dCIYE_BThk43U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41867775 41867665 41397598 40857568 39927567
39137678 38227790 38357902 39667855 40297843
40987830 41657826

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 04:52:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230452
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-230900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of Maryland, southeastern Pennsylvania, southern/central New Jersey, and Delaware

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230450Z - 230900Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will continue -
especially as thunderstorms spread eastward toward populated areas
of the I-95 Urban Corridor through 09Z/5a eastern.

Discussion...A line of thunderstorms has persisted through much of
the night across much of the northern Mid-Atlantic and currently
extends from near Lancaster to near Frederick, and from near
Waldorf across the Chesapeake Bay to near Cambridge, MD. The
storms are being aided by ascent associated with a negative-tilt,
longwave trough extending from Lake Huron to West Virginia along
with instability from a very moist downstream airmass in place
across the Mid-Atlantic (characterized by 1.5+ inch PW and ~500
J/kg MLCAPE). While most convection was linear in character, a
few spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates exist in north-central Maryland,
while new shower/convective development has recently appears
across southern NJ and vicinity. This suggests a likelihood for
persistence of these convective bands with eastward extent toward Wilmington/Philadelphia and vicinity, posing a risk of urban flash
flooding beginning in the 06-07Z timeframe. Persistence of
convection northeastward from that point is in doubt, however, as weaker/negligible buoyancy exists from central NJ northward.
Isolated/spotty flash flood potential exists with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9VlsxbDoy-GkKgCwKniPjovFkORCyFeLhkXlbP_TOTbqVK_AKhG1tcXaxgrz5ZoYCHHNdU-CmPk7httOg6_ZnMbZxF4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40477461 39797430 38467503 37887572 39137660
39737701 40377562

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 06:05:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230605
FFGMPD
SDZ000-WYZ000-231003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...southwestern South Dakota and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230603Z - 231003Z

Summary...A conditional risk of flash flooding exists with
scattered storms near the Rapid City area.

Discussion...Deep convection has materialized over the Black Hills
vicinity over the past couple hours - very near the WY/SD border
region. The storms are persistent despite larger-scale ridging
aloft, and are primarily tied to mid-level shortwave troughs
traversing the region, focused convergence on the nose of 20-25 kt
850mb flow across the High Plains, steep (7+ C/km) lapse rates
aloft, and 1.5 inch PW in the vicinity of the storms. While these
storms were fairly localized, spots of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates were
estimated per MRMS recently with the activity. Furthermore, the
meso- and synoptic-scale features forcing the convection (mainly
the 850mb convergence into the region) should change little over
the next 2-4 hours. These factors suggests a continued risk of
heavy rainfall from Newcastle WY to Rapid City and across the
Black Hills, with flash flooding becoming possible should rainfall
develop in locally sensitive areas through 10Z/5a central. FFG
thresholds are as low as 1-1.5 inch/hr in spots across the
discussion area, which should also be threatened at times beneath
the most persistent heavy rainfall axes.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5oUCizJMqLC6DpG1RmPDXcFsvatWpefS4Uh_kLu3volEeSZ0WI8QRZLCelcg3-9QUiQfBTC--g7hHeuEzoLqBGlCMlA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 44660340 44340196 43590160 43090231 43260464
44400487

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 08:09:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230809
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-231107-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and far
southern New York State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230807Z - 231107Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a convective band
sweeping through southeastern PA into western NJ (including the
Philadelphia area). On the southwestern flank of this band,
enough training occurred for rain rates to peak into the 1-1.5
inch/hr range just southwest of Philadelphia, prompting at least
isolated impacts and local MRMS Flash responses. The downstream
airmass is marginally supportive of deep convective with
northeastward extent, though some concern remains the local
backbuilding could still occur through central NJ where 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE exists per mesoanalyses. While a primarily urban
flash flood risk continues, the greatest chance of impacts will
exist from Philadelphia through Trenton and perhaps Newark through
10Z/6a eastern. It is worth noting that FFG thresholds drop
substantially in northeastern NJ, and rates as low as 0-0.25
inch/hr could cause impacts there.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6GuZ8ujHWI5wb3ho2lkd2Fw4WUu14MYJy8SNq_rynPPDpcAbPKhyOP1JqhxcU2WQDOkZPFRf4Rl3uWalC1Ivgo_hvEA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41617415 41467350 40747342 39697428 39157491
39577542 40947533 41337491

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 23 23:34:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 232334
FFGMPD
AZZ000-240515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1118
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...south-central to southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232333Z - 240515Z

Summary...Flash flooding will be possible across portions of
southern AZ through 05Z with at least isolated coverage. High
sub-hourly rain rates, locally exceeding 1 inch in 15 minutes, are
expected to lead to 1 to 2 inch totals (locally higher possible).

Discussion...Satellite and radar imagery showed a few ongoing
thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southeastern AZ as of
23Z with a general movement toward the west, though some cell
motions were slower than others. Additional attempts at convective
development were also noted over southern Maricopa/Pinal counties
in visible imagery while outflow was propagating southward off of
the Mogollon Rim across northern Maricopa County. The recent
increase in cell coverage has begun to form a couple of outflow
generated cold pools over southeastern AZ, with the potential
early stages of congealing occurring. Blended TPW imagery has
shown increasing moisture from the Gulf of CA into portions of
south-central and southwestern AZ since 12Z with values of 1.1 to
1.7 inches as of 22Z, helping contribute to MLCAPE of 500 to 2000
J/kg (highest over southwestern AZ as seen on the 23Z SPC
mesoanalysis).

Given the center of the mid to upper-level ridge was over
southeastern NM, an increased southerly trajectory to the low to
mid-level flow was seen into southern AZ. Expectations are for
continued convective development over the next couple of hours
over southeastern AZ (and possibly out ahead over south-central AZ
near/ahead of outflow), with movement around the ridge toward the
west and northwest. There is some uncertainty regarding convective
development over parts of southwestern AZ given increasing values
of convective inhibition with western extent as noted on SPC
mesoanalyses (Yuma County) but lift associated with outflow
propagation should be enough to overcome weaker values of
inhibition farther east (Pima and southern portions of Maricopa
and Pinal counties) if organization continues to increase. Should
at least a weakly organized convective cluster form, system
propagation should limit the duration of rainfall over any given
location. However, the environment will be supportive of high
sub-hourly rain rates similar to what has already been observed in
northern Santa Cruz County just after 22Z (1.38 inches in 15
minutes). 0.5 to 1.0+ inches in 15 minutes will be possible with
an evolution toward the west and northwest with time through 05Z,
possibly resulting in flash flooding of low water crossings,
normally dry washes and low lying areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4FS8gYfviQGleNwgzRp9yPLE5vAxmSt9WhyieOOd7DgbhXJEeC-PshiEX4tQME1u-xNETUo69hB9K3O22el0LZ-93pA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33791258 33641153 32471025 31700998 31201023
31561222 32091343 32761371 33151371 33671330

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 08:20:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 240820
FFGMPD
NDZ000-241218-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1119
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern/northeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240818Z - 241218Z

Summary...Spotty/isolated flash flood risk will continue across
the discussion area for the next 3-4 hours (through 12Z/7a central.

Discussion...A band of deep convection was moving very slowly
eastward at around 10-15 knots per radar mosaic imagery. The band
was collocated with strong low-level convergence on the nose of a
~30 kt low-level jet across central ND, with convection rooted in
the mid-levels where ~6.5 C/km lapse rates exist. The airmass is
also characterized by 1.5+ inch PW values that were combining with
slow storm motions to foster areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates (near
Rugby and near the international border at the intersection of ND
14 and ND 5). While these rates were impressive (and approaching
2.5 inch FFG thresholds in spots), antecedent dry conditions and
low soil moistures (per NASA Sport) were likely limiting the
extent of flash flood potential across the region.

These trends are expected to continue for the next 3-4 hours or
so. SPC Mesoanalysis depict that the low-level convergence
supporting ongoing convection will slacken gradually this morning
as flow weakens to around 15 knots or so. Downstream instability
values are weaker too (~6 C/km lapse rates, negligible
surface-based instability), also supporting eventual weakening.
The ongoing flash flood threat should remain isolated through
12Z/7a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5j0ffAqsg4FqV5sq5aHvrVGNet65WL-si8yXdc7NmPPYmKDj4-Ygin2VbiuU2lfFSigkU19dGWD1u3CRzp_CazBbD-s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49050049 48949934 48909822 48219786 47479802
47729990 48240082

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 11:01:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241101
FFGMPD
MSZ000-ARZ000-241700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1120
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241059Z - 241700Z

Summary...Flash flooding is possible this morning across portions
of central Arkansas as repeating showers and thunderstorms move
through. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches in a short duration may
cause isolated instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms this morning continue to
blossom over portions of Arkansas, moving from the northwest to
southeast on the periphery of the upper ridge that is centered
over central Texas. This activity is being fueled by the lingering
nocturnal low level jet and is positioned within an axis of
relatively higher moisture, characterized by PWs around 1.5-1.75
inches.

Over the next several hours, this activity should progress
southeast. However, upstream additional convection is forming and
will likely track over the similar area. The most recent runs of
the HRRR and other hi-res guidance is in reasonable agreement with
the placement of the heaviest rainfall axis positioned in a stripe
from northern to southeast Arkansas, indicating 1-2 inches likely
with some embedded cores of 2-3 inches through about 17Z today.
Rainfall rates with the strongest cores could approach 2"/hr.

Despite the drier soils, the intense rain rates combined with the repeating/training nature of the activity suggests at least a
lower end threat of flash flooding for the more vulnerable
locations. After about 17Z, convection should begin to wane and
also move out of the area.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5UWeQ6xI1XpgUEcjcOshzWBpcB4_qZ1LSBGCqGtoZasiN0EpNlwU0OXGtgCo952xvY599I6mE-t1Bui4dWk6X8X87MM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36489251 36149183 35769151 35079109 34669082
34039059 33529063 33269125 34159242 34959289
35529317 36229341

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 17:28:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241727
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-242326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1121
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241726Z - 242326Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon across the central Gulf Coast will pose a flash flood
risk due to intense rain rates. Localized 2 to 4 inch totals in a
short duration are possible.

Discussion...The early morning complex of thunderstorms that
developed over Arkansas earlier has moved south/southeast today
and as of early this afternoon is now approaching southeast
Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Interacting with a surface
front draped across the area and heading into an increasingly warm
and unstable environment, this activity should begin to uptick and
intensify with peak heating over the next few hours. The
environment along and ahead of the front has ample instability,
with the latest mesoanalysis showing upwards of 2500-3500 J/kg
MUCAPE in place. It's also very moist, with PWs close to 2 inches.

The expectation is that this activity should increase in coverage
and intensity as it approaches the outlook area. While activity
should steadily move, some isolated cells developing ahead of the
main complex would be slower moving and capable of producing rain
rates 2-3"/hr. Isolated totals of 2-4" are possible, and most of
this could fall in a short period.

Given the short duration of the intense rain rates, isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding is possible over the
next several hours.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6j50KGxhYOrl8w2VCb4-iG6PYngYsn1yjogWaRWmFQX6FcA7goeM-nDeOKMDg2Jx9UkFq9TXI1BItd7mNp6bNMGjIIk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31889055 31708879 31838683 30338671 30138862
30178921 29688962 29468991 29569040 30049116
30469152 30939167 31589161

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 18:35:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241835
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-250030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1122
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Southwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241834Z - 250030Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal moisture being drawn northeastward ahead of a
deep longwave trough is likely to cause widely scattered instances
of flash flooding across portions of the Southwest this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered flash flooding is expected across
portions of the Southwest, from the Peninsular Ranges of southern
California north and east through much of northern Arizona and
southern Utah. SPC Mesoanalysis shows moisture amounts from 1.8
inch PWATs in the southeast corner of California north up the
Colorado River Basin to around 1 inch in Las Vegas. These moisture
amounts are about 2 sigma above normal in southern California to
around 1 sigma above normal in Arizona and Utah. While not
impressive amounts of moisture, when combined with the numerous
terrain impacts, largely unidirectional flow (which supports
uplift on the south and west facing sides of the mountains), and
surface heating, expect scattered to convection to blossom once
again across this region today. Lightning has been observed with a
few storms across Arizona and Utah, indicating the potential for
heavy rain from those same storms.

HRRR and RRFS guidance suggest coverage of storms later this
afternoon will be scattered to potentially numerous in the
Peninsular Ranges of southern California, as well as in northern
Arizona with the vort max. The vort max in Arizona has already
been producing some convection, but as the stratiform rain coverts
to convection and the total coverage of clouds diminishes, expect
any resultant convection to have the potential to produce flash
flooding. Across Utah, any storms are likely to impact
flood-sensitive areas, including slot canyons. Potential for
impacts will be high, especially should any convection impact the
national parks.

Convection should wane in most areas by the end of this discussion
period, but it may persist into Utah a bit longer.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6So4VtawcPj8OUB-_6u2dQwMQMNO-k92xih-YYcy_fkbGfOl1cnzrDneGCETEBIFum3Db5Ay-xL3gnSSiFt1NyVsJJY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SGX...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39001173 38311106 37021019 35890935 34691003
34271131 34031378 33771476 33401558 32821586
32271597 32501651 32611647 33061672 33821680
34501681 35531641 36781562 37811470 38731297

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 24 19:42:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241942
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Utah and Western Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241941Z - 250130Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over Utah and
Colorado will likely cause terrain-driven flash flooding through
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed along
many of the mountain ranges from eastern Utah through western
Colorado this afternoon. Some of these storms have formed in
flood-sensitive areas, including burn scars, slot canyons, and
steep flood basins among the numerous terrain features of this
area. Thus, as on previous days, it should not take much storm
formation, given their slow movement, to result in flash flooding.

MUCAPE values in this area are generally between 500 and 1,000
J/kg. While very low in many areas east of the Continental Divide,
here given the favorable hydrology, this should be sufficient
instability to allow at least pop-up storms to continue on the
terrain. Swift WSW flow in the upper levels, to the tune of 35-50
kts, should keep the storms that form well-ventilated. PWATs
around 0.75 inches will also support the storms at times doing a
chain-reaction along the north-south aligned ranges this afternoon
and favoring a slow eastward movement/building for any east-west
ranges. This is due to the prevailing westerly wind regime to the
north of the large ridge near the NM/TX border.

Hi-Res guidance supports the widely scattered nature of the
convection, where any convection forms along the terrain, but
clusters of storms riding the initial storms' cold pools can allow
for some east to northeast building of those clusters through the
afternoon. By evening, with the loss of daytime heating, storm
coverage and intensity should wane.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-k3_y6Ouo0cdj9eiKpVxAiEAjFP9kXA3uRO5kW5CoviJt50nvdIuFBACn6gYEuateDngIOkWsd1bk5jYUFCUjZuxobo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41470989 41310900 40470745 39970617 39990594
39880537 39810512 39600504 39410510 38840531
38600538 38330545 38080517 37830487 37340460
36760446 35940493 36470552 36520618 37100700
37230749 37390807 37520833 37790875 37770952
37690993 37811064 38861136 39071201 39121211
39161214 39631180 40361119 41061081

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 16:16:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 251615
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...Northern FL...Southern GA...Coastal SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251615Z - 252215Z

SUMMARY...Potent thunderstorms containing excessive rainfall rates
around 3"/hr may cause flash flooding in poor drainage spots and
within urbanized areas.

DISCUSSION...At 1530Z, Doppler Radar and GOES East were
highlighting developing thunderstorms within a growing field of
bubbling cumulus clouds over northern FL. The highlighted region
remains downwind of a low-mid level circulation center situated
northwest of Tallahassee where 700mb vorticity advection is being
directed towards northern FL and southern GA. The thermodynamic
profile is ripe for torrential rainfall rates within developing
thunderstorms. The 12Z JAX sounding already contained ~2,800
MLCAPE and PWs >2.0". The 12Z CHS sounding did not feature as much
moisture or instability, but a cold front over southern SC and
southern GA aiding in the production of scattered storms, within a
1.75-2.0" PW and >2,000 MLCAPE environment, would support >2"/hr
rainfall rates this afternoon.

By mid-afternoon, PWs will surpass 2.25" and MLCAPE will increase
to >3,000 J/kg over much of northern FL. Typical sea breeze
circulations will fire off scattered storms, and even as
convective temperatures are met and CIN erodes, storms farther
inland are also likely to develop. West of I-95, 1-hr FFGs that
are above 3.0" in most cases, but areas along I-95 such as
Jacksonville and Savannah are closer to 2.5". Given the storms are
likely to be slow movers (12Z JAX sounding shows <10 kts cloud
layer storm motions), storms within this kind of environment will
be capable of producing close to 3"/hr rainfall rates and locally
higher rates cannot be ruled out. The new 12Z HREF probabilistic
guidance does show some low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for 1-3hr
FFG in far southeast GA this afternoon.

Flash flooding is possible this afternoon with the urbanized
corridors along I-95 and I-10 most at-risk. Typical poor drainage
spots and low-lying areas may also be prone to flash flooding
through early evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-amZoqF-06wALdFFAZkzs3Q_eB1gAOuJXKD7ivZBFwjDNM1hciEUqJ6-NjQlfeC6AroD67IYirSugAKgqxLQjgKEpkw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32887983 32587981 32348009 32038046 31758076
31458097 30898100 30278097 29808089 29298077
28908072 28638076 28448109 28638158 28988186
29428228 29768256 30068273 30218287 30678296
30988290 31098278 31368264 31648247 31918219
32088200 32208172 32528093 32758034 32878007

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 25 22:05:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 252204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-260402-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
603 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252202Z - 260402Z

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will
materialize through the early evening hours leading to isolated
flash flood concerns within more urbanized zones and flood prone
locations across the Colorado Front Range into the neighboring
High Plains from Nebraska down through the Texas Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite and radar composite note a steady
increase in convective coverage across the Central and Southern
Rockies this afternoon with a few stronger cells migrating
eastward across the High Plains of Northeast New Mexico.
Environmental conditions are ripe for strong thunderstorm genesis
within the confines of the Central and Southern High Plains as the
area remains parked under a broad mid-level ridge providing ample
diurnal heating atop a relatively buoyant airmass present east of
the Continental Divide. At the surface, a couple quasi-stationary
fronts are situated across NE into the WY Front Range, as well as
a secondary stationary front bisecting the Southern High Plains
between OK and the TX Panhandle, arcing back into the adjacent
Northeastern NM High Plains. Strongest cell cluster over NM is
currently a benefactor of the frontal placement with some
anchoring occurring from a stronger mesocyclone development in the
past hour. With SBCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg over the Western
High Plains, suitably buoyant environment with modest mid-level
shear on the northeast flank of the ridge will supplement any
convective elements through the next several hours with an
improvement in the low-level shear potential after sunset with the
addition of a LLJ structure initiating after 00z.

Recent trends in guidance have leaned into a consistent growth of
convection across southwest NE down through the CO Front Range as
we head into the late-afternoon and early evening time frame with
a likely genesis of supercellular modes in the initial development
stage as the formidable thermodynamic conditions favor when
coupled with the 30-40kt Effective Bulk Shear across the region.
Cell mergers will materialize this evening with supercell modes
shifting to more multi-cell clusters with potentially strong
enough cores to produce heavy rainfall rates upwards of 2"/hr as
noted via the latest 18z HREF hourly neighborhood probs. Localized
totals between 2-4" are plausible in areas that are directly
impacted by either the supercell initiation, and/or the eventual
multi-cell clusters. Primary areas of focus for flash flooding
will be the more urban zones due to higher run off capabilities,
as well as those more prone areas within low-water crossings in
areas of eastern CO into western KS, down into the TX Panhandle.
Other area of concern remains near Pueblo within the zone
encompassing the Aspen Acres Burn Scar where very sensitive
grounds remain and a Flood Watch remains in effect. Isolated to
widely scattered flash flood potential will exist in the above
areas through the first half of the evening.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4wq0FLcFWr28aSacsnH4Z84SpAwhhc3U8GQV0F5Hb1iws5cpiy0TAiEuqT8YOleN9BmYvGV0OSdPmo2uv3C8E9xvARw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41590346 41510262 41160146 40880086 40310042
39540033 38610044 37550050 37010059 36560056
36060066 35420120 35180285 35400444 36080465
37050482 38710460 40330470 41220505 41570416

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 04:11:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 260411
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-261009-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1126
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Areas affected...eastern Colorado, western Kansas, southwestern
Nebraska, far southeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260409Z - 261009Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues across the
discussion area for a few more hours, but may become more
conditional with time.

Discussion...Scattered deep convection continues across the
eastern Texas Panhandle and within a small cluster of storms over
southeastern CO and southwestern KS. The TX Panhandle storms have
formed a complex that is currently weakening, but has prompted
widespread overturning and low-level stabilization from that area
northward into the CO/KS/OK border region. Farther north (from
the cluster of cells near Lamar/Garden City north to southwest
NE), the airmass remains supportive of at least isolated
convection (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE, light easterly low-level flow,
1.1-1.5 inch PW). Storms are slow moving due to weak kinematics
aloft (10-20 knots mean flow), with a couple areas of FFG
exceedance noted in southeast CO/southwest NE over the past hour
or so. Weak/subtle mid-level troughs are noted per
satellite/objective analyses (southwest NE, eastern WY) that could
help overcome convective inhibition and force isolated to
scattered thunderstorms through the night that could result in
additional FFG exceedances -- especially in eastern CO where FFG
thresholds are around 1 inch/hr. Storms (and attendant flash
flood risk) are expected to remain isolated, however. This risk
will persist through at least 10Z/5a central (given convective
signal in the most recent HREF suite).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9cwjdp1Pc-nEe5y4YYu4VCf_fedxlePDAxlaFI6YPRQktEQHrN7yaKXfRTss2SdP0LruTeYHCl0Jh-RSgDAukhb4Djs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42000316 41810204 40900011 40159940 37939927
37080012 37420305 40390422 41730453

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 26 19:50:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 261950
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270147-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1127
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261947Z - 270147Z

Summary...Increasing threat of flash flooding over the next
several hours as thunderstorms initiate near and along the
proximity of a stationary front over the Southeast U.S. Rainfall
rates upwards of 2-3"/hr are possible in the strongest storms.

Discussion...Current radar and satellite depictions are beginning
to hint at the next round of heavy convective potential across the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast with sights on the
northern half of Mississippi and Alabama, extending back into
Arkansas. A very warm, moist airmass presence has allowed for a
very buoyant and favorable environment capable of producing some
significant thunderstorm genesis across the region as we step
through the latter half of the afternoon into the evening. At the
surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed across central AR
through northern MS and AL as of 18z with a slow southward
progression propelled by outflows stemming from a decaying complex
moving into the region from TN. Aloft, we have two distinct
disturbances that will work in tandem to provide more widespread
convective potential along the front, as well as the surrounding
areas encompassing parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast. The first is noted with the decaying complex over the
Tennessee Valley pressing south into northern AL. Some strong
low-level convergence is analyzed via the latest RAP mesoanalysis
over the area just west of Huntsville allowing for a few stronger
cells to materialize and provide an isolated flash flood warning
over northwestern AL. The aided ascent coupled with outflows from
the complex to the north will maintain prevalence for more heavy
convective initiation over the next several hours with the
environment south of the front maintaining a significant 3000-4000
J/kg SBCAPE offering, more than capable for enhanced pulse
convection.

Further west into AR and MS, a well-defined CAPE gradient is
located from west to east over central AR into northern MS, noting
the gradient running right along the quasi-stationary front over
the area. Upstream into OK, another mid-level shortwave will
migrate east-southeast around the northeastern flank of a broad
ridge positioned over the Southern High Plains acting as a
suitable forcing mechanism for convective development this
afternoon and evening. Trends have favored a relatively slow
maturation of thunderstorm genesis for the next hour, but by
20-21z, anticipating a much larger coverage of thunderstorms to
materialize as the disturbance migrates closer to the region,
igniting storms along the CAPE gradient situated around the
stationary front. HRRR/RRFS combo have been consistent on this
signature of heavy convection developing over west-central AR with
a few strong cells also materializing over the Ozarks before
sinking southeast with the mean flow.

Rainfall rates in these cells will top between 2-3"/hr as regional
PWATs settle between 1.9-2.2" over the entire AR/MS/AL domain.
Heavy rainfall will allow for totals to enter the 2-4" range, with
a maxima of 6" plausible where cells train over the same area.
Relative storm motions will be fairly weak overall leading to the
threat for several inches of rainfall in a few hours time. Also
will be watching for potential cold pool mergers as noted via some
of the CAMs today, especially in proximity to the Mississippi
Delta where the signal has been present for multiple runs for
later this evening. This could benefit a larger areal footprint of
heavy rainfall with more thunderstorm development within the
convergent boundaries.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-jg2YFTJCcRltzGiJrar2fAqDDdufn6pvrMvjBzMK9QPB_svQjGBSE20-ITv3jyAFZF4yMypwxWSDCZixATwzDwaxY8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...MRX...PAH... SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36759245 36639122 36239085 35669049 35209004
34868923 34668867 34648802 34738730 35248625
35008558 34188570 33558632 33238717 33148784
33058877 32958987 32799096 32649250 32979424
33919461 35039449 36079435 36639333

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 04:04:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 270404
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-271000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1128
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270402Z - 271000Z

Summary...High rainfall rates with 2 to 3+ inch hourly totals and
15 minute rainfall locally in excess of 1 inch are expected to
impact portions of the Lower MS Valley through 10Z. Peak rainfall
totals in excess of 4 inches will be possible on an isolated basis
along with possible flash flooding.

Discussion...GOES East infrared imagery at 0345Z showed pockets of
colder cloud tops from the western AR/LA border into central and
southern MS, associated with thunderstorms containing a general
motion toward the south to southeast. Preceding the thunderstorms,
regional radar imagery and surface observations from 03Z showed an
elongated southward propagating outflow boundary from northeastern
TX into far northern LA and central MS, where it met with a
westward propagating outflow across central/southern MS. The
environment ahead of the composite outflow was very moist with PWs
of 1.9 to 2.2 inches and MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg (via area
00Z soundings and 03Z SPC mesoanalysis data). Northern portions of
the region also contained added lift within the right-entrance
region of a strengthening 70-90 kt upper level jet max extending
eastward from the confluence of the MO and OH rivers, with
diffluent flow to the south across the lower MS Valley.

Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue advancing south to
southeast over the next 3-6 hours, containing hourly rainfall of 1
to 2 inches. However, the unstable and moist environment will
favor efficient rainfall production with 15 minute rainfall
locally over 1 inch and the potential for 2 to 3+ inch hourly
totals where cells locally merge and briefly train. While peak
residence time of heavy rain over any given location is not
expected to exceed much more than 60-90 minutes, the potential for
localized flash flooding will exist, especially across urban or
other locations of poor drainage. Due to a majority of the region
containing high FFG (many areas of 4+ inches in 3 hours), the
coverage of any flash flooding that occurs should remain localized.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9OU9Z9eL6sQ2tzwiK9u93x1xX6rpy6CYLcMy64VUu_amDHEHuEnLDhweUEoYxKpejnlnnzRetI_KlM0fGoD5istp4eE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33498992 33428916 32788881 32188880 31158868
30578960 30699235 31159353 32099399 33029386
33279343 33189208 33369122 33459040

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 09:31:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 270930
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-271415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1129
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270928Z - 271415Z

Summary...Extreme rainfall rates containing localized hourly
totals over 3 inches and 15 minute rainfall in excess of 1 inch
will impact southern portions of the lower MS Valley and central
Gulf Coast over the next 3-5 hours. Peak additional rainfall
totals in excess of 4 inches will be possible on an isolated basis
along with possible flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery from 09Z showed a south to
southeastward advancing line of thunderstorms extending from
central LA into southwestern/south-central MS and a second,
smaller cluster advancing southwestward toward Lake Pontchartrain.
MRMS and guage observations have shown extreme rainfall
intensities over the past few hours with these storms, containing
hourly values of 3 to 5 inches across southern MS (~30 miles SW of
Jackson and just west of Gulfport). The environment remains quite
favorable for efficient rainfall production with PWs of 2.0 to 2.3
inches and MLCAPE of ~1500 to 2500 J/kg via 09Z SPC mesoanalysis
data.

Lift atop the leading edge of the outflow boundaries and
divergent/diffluent flow aloft will continue to support peak
hourly rainfall over 3 inches where brief cell training and
mergers occur. A composite outflow boundary is expected to advance
southward into the northern Gulf waters over the next 2-4 hours,
but some low level overrunning along the western edge of the
outflow could support lingering development over portions of
western LA beyond sunrise. The mostly likely locations for the
heaviest rainfall appear to be between roughly Lafayette and the
MS River Delta. It is here where localized rainfall totals in
excess of 4 inches will be possible. Due to the increasing
swamp/wetlands land cover with southward extent, the greatest
flash flood threat will be with any overlap of high rainfall rates
with urban or other locations of poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-qXP3uv-q3vo-Lko5T2XtKVlVn-DvXdyfia0-OMMhLvWrMc2vksU5N8B9EB6udrV9DT2fV3ZRwvg2P1JKmCml8C5JFg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31849018 31598909 30708850 29898846 28908914
28789083 29379329 29459394 30299430 31099392
31459251 31749129

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 10:14:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 271013
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-271500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1130
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
612 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...northern Mid-Atlantic into southern NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271011Z - 271500Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash and urban flooding will be possible this
morning across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern
NY. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected through about
15Z (11 AM EDT), but coverage of higher rates should remain
limited this morning. Increasing coverage of high rainfall rates
may increase into the afternoon hours, beyond the expiration of
this MPD.

DISCUSSION...10Z regional radar imagery showed scattered showers
and thunderstorms over far northern MD into eastern PA, northern
NJ and portions of Upstate NY. The cells were moving toward the
northeast at an average speed of 20-30 kt with some modest
upstream development back toward the southwest. These cells were
likely elevated, forming in response to southwesterly moisture
advection in the 850-700 mb layer and increasing PWs which have
risen about 0.3 to 0.5 inches over the past 6 hours (per GPS data
and blended TPW imagery). MUCAPE values were likely weak with the
10Z SPC mesoanalysis showing 100 to about 500 J/kg for most areas
from eastern PA into NJ and southern NY.

Through 15Z or so, expectations are for showers and thunderstorms
to continue redeveloping with individual cells advancing
northeastward, out ahead of an approaching mid to upper-level
trough over the Great Lakes region. The unidirectional
southwesterly flow within the LFC-EL layer could support some
brief training/repeating across the region with potential for
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. These higher rates should remain
limited in coverage this morning, but overlap with sensitive urban
areas could result in areas of flash flooding across sensitive
terrain and/or urban areas. The onset of daytime heating is
expected to deepen instability profiles later this morning which
may allow for intensification and of cells as they advance toward
portions of New England.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!43jyavmquvTPqW6MrY5FoN8w3KKyHtHZwGNz3a7K3pc3StSbMGVfWDI7etKFX-emBxfb5T6y_SQLEbE8h0wNqnv1jAI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42667414 42467357 42027322 41117337 40267395
39297542 39127652 39497722 40137713 41167675
42337533

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 16:06:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 271605
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1131
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1204 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271603Z - 272100Z

SUMMARY...Flash and urban flooding instances should increase
through this afternoon across portions the northern Mid-Atlantic.
Peak hourly rainfall of 2 inches is expected to continue through
about 21Z (5 PM EDT) or so. Additional rounds of heavy rain are
likely this evening, particularly south of Philly.

DISCUSSION...16Z regional radar imagery depicts scattered
thunderstorms from Wilmington to the greater NYC metro. Northeast
motion with some backbuilding continues. Ample moisture exists
with PW around 1.5" north of NYC to 1.8" over Baltimore. An
instability gradient is also present with SBCAPE of 2500+ J/kg
south of Philly and around 1500 J/kg for the NYC metro east onto
Long Island.

Recent HRRR runs favor the southern end of this discussion where
the greater instability is present with good coverage of 2-4" from
the north side of Baltimore through Philly and over southern NJ.
This is reasonable given the strongest current development along
the I-95 corridor north of Wilmington that should expand both up
and downstream. The instability gradient extending east through
Nassau Co warrants expanding the discussion area more than half
way through Long Island.

Widespread urbanization locally reduces 1hr FFG to below 1.5", so
the heavy activity with some upwind propagation warrants a
continued threat for flash flooding through the afternoon hours.
Further activity is expected generally south of current activity
this evening, so anticipate subsequent discussions.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4D9K4YXENp0UTxz-nuGPhL9DVol0rHiJpF0jgWhRtUpp-Z2_XYSPgo0Ywa_gq8pTUKC7co1i0Rs7Ik9RDp8-UWT2SsE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41757352 41297323 40987293 40667274 40387363
39787410 39167471 39127652 39417702 39877668
40327553 40787486 41547418

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 27 21:01:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 272101
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-280300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1132
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northern Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 272100Z - 280300Z

SUMMARY...Continued risk of flash and urban flooding across the
Mid Atlantic through the evening hours. Rainfall rates between 1
to 2 in/hr are forecast for the strongest cells leading to local
totals between 2-4 inches in the most impacted areas. Greatest
threat from Central MD through the Philadelphia and New York City
metro areas.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite composite this afternoon shows a
gradual increase in convective coverage back towards the Blue
Ridge with scattered thunderstorms ongoing near PHI and NYC with a
secondary development near the bay breeze in Northeast MD. This
area from Baltimore to NYC will be subject to the greatest threat
for flash flooding through the evening thanks to a favorable
environment with ample instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) along
with PWAT anomalies approaching the 95th percentile over areas
east of the Blue Ridge (1.6-1.9" based on 12z RAOB's and the
latest 19z RAP mesoanalysis). These conditions are primed for
widespread convective coverage through the late-afternoon and
evening as increased mid-level forcing from a trough axis pivoting
through the Ohio Valley will provide sufficient ascent from a
broad diffluent structure directed into the Mid Atlantic. Multiple
boundaries, including an analyzed surface trough over the Blue
Ridge and the aforementioned bay breeze across Northeast MD will
be focal points for convective initiation with the latter likely
being an anchor point for some convection prior to the eventual
QLCS advancement which will push everything to the east. Bay
breeze will also provide better low-level meso enhancement that
could allow for one or two cells to really amplify over the
region, a noted point from a few of the CAMs during the early part
of the evening. This would likely be something to monitor over
Baltimore up through Harford and Cecil counties as a local maxima
as this threat evolves.

Elsewhere, significant rains have already occurred over the
Philadelphia metro into Southern NJ, as well as the NYC metro into
Northern NJ with widespread urban flooding ongoing as of the last
hour. Any additional rainfall will be a cause for concern across
the region leading to a likely flash flood prospect for any
additional thunderstorm impacts this evening. Latest REFS/HREF
probs for >2" are relatively elevated from Central MD up through
Eastern PA into NJ/NYC area, even as general storm motions remain
steady in the grand scheme with the eventual QLCS propagation.
Still, some locally backed flow ahead of the trough advancement
will still allow for some back-building threat across Northern MD
and points northeast leading to an emphasis in the forecast for
these areas being the more favorable zones for flash flooding this
evening. Localized totals of 2-4" are forecast, well above the FFG
thresholds in place over the region.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9d-ZBzfHGGNzAe_SjsyM249qEP6apla867-GmBDafaJpBv_jLknTWMIMeR0KPmLB_VuTn6Q4pjB2kKG5OzP_7NhchXE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41647606 41527495 41307424 41277405 41137377
40847366 40617374 40257390 39887420 39397472
39047546 38767598 38477658 38287697 37837768
37927844 38197882 38717888 38957854 39407796
39697761 40197730 41117689

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 01:06:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 280106
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-280605-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1133
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...Central High Plains of Nebraska, Kansas, and Far
Eastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280105Z - 280605Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood opportunities along the path of a
progressive MCS moving due south over Nebraska into Kansas.
Rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr expected leading to localized flash
and small stream flooding along and south of I-80.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous complex of thunderstorms over the Nebraska
Sandhills will continue pushing south within a well-defined
theta_E ridge in place across the Central High Plains. A strong
mid-level vorticity max is currently aiding in keeping the complex
well established from an ascent perspective while the boundary
layer remains very buoyant with a large area of 2500-3500 J/kg
MUCAPE settled over west-central NE down into northwestern KS.
PWATs between 1.3-1.7" across the High Plains are within +1 to
+1.5 standard deviations of climatological norm which puts the
region from North Platte, NE to Goodland, KS firmly between the
75-90th for the period according to sounding climatology. This has
been supportive of rates between 1-2"/hr from the complex as it
migrates quickly south into the region.

Latest hi-res indicates the MCS should make headway through North
Platte proper with a continued forward propagation between 45-60
mph on its way south leading to areas along I-80 near North Platte
down through southwestern NE taking the brunt of the impact from
the complex. Limited observation network within the Sandhills
doesn't provide much in the way of future progs for what can be
expected, however the few obs that are available did manage to see
rainfall rates right around 2"/hr, matching the upper threshold of
the rates with the environment in place. Quick complex motion
should limit more substantial, widespread flash flood prospects,
however, the complex itself is quite aggressive with regards to
severe potential and heavy rain which have a history for some
localized flash and small stream flood potential in the path of
these types of thunderstorm complexes.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4S-Ip6CL1Q76tv0yE4QMFceIZJo7ocgwJmZmaTaTZSdGw44LWb-cJPrMx5FQnDthwnYsUcNdkarrn-wGc54VQ5dRXtI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41559957 41419896 40899876 39949871 39029894
38409965 38390102 38580195 39330221 39960227
40730229 41210205 41340155 41440110 41510024

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 03:28:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 280328
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-280730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1134
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...northern Mid-Atlantic into Upstate NY and
southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280323Z - 280730Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will continue to be likely
for portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic region into the
Northeast for another couple of hours, although weakening is
expected after 06Z, which should end the flash flood threat for
most, if not all, locations.

DISCUSSION...0245Z radar imagery showed a slow moving cluster of
thunderstorms over eastern PA with peak MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches (highest over Lancaster County). A
second region of thunderstorms was located over the northern
Catskills into the Capital District of NY. While much of the
region has stabilized with respect to the boundary layer due to
earlier rainfall and nocturnal cooling, and cloud tops were
largely warming, pockets of elevated instability remained given
rich low level moisture and modest 700-580 mb lapse rates locally
greater than 6 C/km. SPC mesoanalysis data from 02Z showed about
500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE from northern MD into southern NY and
southern New England with a mixture of lower/higher CIN.

Low level southwesterly flow was helping to fuel continued
convective development to the north of a rain-cooled boundary
extending westward from southern NJ into southern PA, out ahead of
a larger scale ascent associated with an upper level trough axis
to the west. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity just south of
Harrisburg over the past 30 minutes was being aided by the
upstream environment containing 850 mb dewpoints of 15-16 C, and
southwesterly low level flow.

With high PWs of ~1.6 to 1.9 inches (00Z soundings from OKX, ALB
and IAD), and slow movement of heavy rain cores, hourly rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches, locally 2+ inches, will remain possible in the
short term. However, the larger scale environment will likely
continue to stabilize from continued surface cooling and
convective overturning, which should maintain a gradual weakening
trend over the next 2-4 hours. Until then, a few areas of flash
flooding will continue to be likely, but with activity expected to
diminish after 06Z. There is good model agreement from the latest
00Z HREF/REFS for this evolution, although the guidance might be
weakening storms too quickly.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8rN_2IjDnYP-kkYZ009gmWVgbVa4Hkoa4ZmQl_Go8B_Gg1mymi0TsTPqhnWNb9AjcftQk9VXwfbV1CwYaB9kEsMdLSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...CTP...GYX...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43097358 42897198 42337173 42057223 41617371
40877437 40127501 39777547 39467646 39757759
40437775 41487699 42577527 42947432

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 04:06:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 280406
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-280835-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1135
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1205 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Areas affected...WV into central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280403Z - 280835Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible from portions
of WV into central VA over the next 3-5 hours, but with decreasing
potential with time. Hourly rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches,
locally higher, are expected.

DISCUSSION...0350Z radar and infrared satellite imagery showed
slow moving thunderstorms lingering across portions of central and
western VA, into WV across the Allegheny Mountains. Weakening
trends were observed overall across VA given increasing
stabilization occurring into the overnight hours, but localized
strengthening had occurred over WV and along the WV/VA border, to
the south of Lewisburg, WV. It appears the recent uptick was
related to an upper level jet streak seen on water vapor imagery,
extending from the KY/VA border into the western MD Panhandle,
interacting with lingering instability with little to no
inhibition.

Increased ascent tied to the jet streak and lingering instability
of 500 to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE (03Z SPC mesoanalysis and 00Z
soundings from IAD and RNK) should maintain a localized flash
flood concern due to slow moving thunderstorms capable of 1 to 2+
inch hourly rainfall totals. Lift out ahead of the base of an
upper trough moving across the OH Valley is expected to maintain
ascent downstream across the Appalachians into central VA, but
that will be competing with increasingly stability. Expectations
are for an isolated flash flood threat to linger for another 3-5
hours from WV into VA, with potential for renewed convective
development over WV, but a waning in intensity/coverage of
thunderstorms with time. The flash flood threat should largely end
by 08-09Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4jhygXMw_Mstz9ESLok8zQuusKjA-6MHI92I7jJKVStGpdJ8_hYVDW1YvmvhXLTBmPYpxWFSQ7lC50cajjLwo-O50gU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...JKL...LWX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39007998 38847899 38267911 38027860 38197782
37747777 37447805 37137868 37007930 36988022
37068129 37128173 37478212 38158203 38538091

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 17:12:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 281712
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-282101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1136
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Areas affected...Eastern MD...Southern DE...Southern NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281709Z - 282101Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms with high rainfall rates will
continue to develop from southern New Jersey to the DelMarVa
Peninsula through the early to mid afternoon hours. Some instances
of flooding will be possible where persistent convection develops.

DISCUSSION...The latest regional Doppler radars are indicating a
rapid increase in slow moving heavy showers and storms, with the
greatest concentration located between Salisbury MD and Atlantic
City NJ. There is a slow moving frontal boundary that is
intercepting a moist and unstable airmass near the coast (PWs near
1.75 inches and surface based CAPE of about 3000 J/kg based on the
latest SPC mesoanalysis) that is fueling robust convection.
Back-building cells have developed that are serving to enhance
hourly rainfall rates approaching 2 inches per hour.

There are a variety of different QPF solutions with respect to the
latest CAM guidance, but the RRFS appears to have the most
realistic depiction based on ongoing radar trends. This model
suggests the potential for scattered QPF maxima on the order of 3
inches through 4 pm local time, and this may result in some
instances of flooding. Some of the heaviest cells are likely to be
offshore after 2 pm as the boundary slowly drifts east.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5bjRrMYrOnl-n6G0zZhGjxJLPdgTR3Slgnqz2Ob5yhN-3ykLmLjCowT4uXxuMgpj52NrAtmBLIHxRcw1g4uIBBBN0UM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39867459 39797416 39487409 38977451 38257507
37987541 38007582 38207601 38547599 39037562
39567510

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 28 19:06:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 281906
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-290005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Areas affected...Southwest SC...Southern GA...Northeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281905Z - 290005Z

Summary...Additional thunderstorms containing rainfall rates
upwards of 3"/hr at times will support a risk of scattered flash
flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar mosaic this afternoon depicts a persistent area
of thunderstorms over portions of Southeast GA and Southwest SC,
containing peak rainfall rates over 2.5"/hr per MRMS. These cells
are occurring upstream of a weak circulation off the FL Panhandle,
and are generally aligned along a NE-SW oriented surface trough
and differential heating zone. The general alignment of this
boundary to 10 kts of steering flow is supporting some training
and merging of storms in the highlighted area. Thus far, the high
FFGs coupled with ongoing drought conditions in the area have been
able to absorb much of the rainfall, although a few instances of
FFG exceedance are noted over Coastal GA near Savannah.

However, going forward another round of storms is expected to
expand in coverage generally along these boundaries as the
circulation drifts inland while right entrance region ascent
strengthens to the north. With 2.3" PW values and pockets of
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE analyzed in the area by mesoanalysis, the
potential for hourly rainfall rates upwards of 3"/hr in this next
round will exist going forward this afternoon which could breach
the 2.5-3" 1 hr FFGs in the area. Recent runs of the HRRR
consistently shows 3-5" rainfall totals across the highlighted
area through 00z, which corroborates the 12z HREF showing a
similar rainfall footprint. This scenario would support a threat
of scattered flash flooding this afternoon, especially over
sensitive urbanized areas.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6FtG8ZFIKBr1c-p5MQDQM3yV8EZzTGm64GXzRuS9awhMbNkeqQSbyX2pxtqnk1driMG4KY6xb-2m0_bJedNZ-3oAuRU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32708070 32498021 32158033 31688076 30558110
29698121 29718170 30278247 30598376 31018460
31858402 32628139

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 06:11:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290534
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1138
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...eastern SD into southwestern MN and northwestern
IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290532Z - 291015Z

Summary...The potential for isolated flash flooding will exist
across portions of eastern SD into southwestern MN and
northwestern IA over the next 3-5 hours. Areas of training will
support hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches with 2 to 4 inch totals
(locally higher possible) through ~10 or 11 UTC.

Discussion...Radar imagery from 0515Z showed a small thunderstorm
cluster over eastern SD, about 40-60 miles SSE of Aberdeen. This
area of convection was likely elevated, forming on the cool side
of a quasi-stationary front which extended NNW through the
Dakotas. A 40-50 kt low level jet to the east of a south-central
SD surface low and southward extending through axis has increased
moisture in the 925-850 mb layer across eastern SD, eroding CIN
observed on the 00Z ABR sounding, beneath 700-500 lapse rates that
were about 7.0 to 7.5 C/km. Precipitable water values were 1.7
inches on the ABR sounding and MUCAPE was ~2500 J/kg, with
instability dropping off rapidly toward the east per RAP/SPC
mesoanalysis data.

The continued advection of low level moisture into eastern
SD/southwestern MN via ~40-50 kt of 850 mb flow from the S to SSW
should continue to expand higher instability downstream into
portions of southwestern MN through 10Z (forecast MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg). Additional erosion of CIN is expected over the
region which may allow for an expansion of the ongoing
thunderstorm cluster south of Aberdeen along with additional
development to the north/northeast. Mean steering flow should take
cells toward the east with potential for short term training.
However, if a larger and more organized cluster of thunderstorms
should form, it is expected to track southeastward, following
Corfidi vectors and the 1000-500 mb thickness orientation,
allowing for some potential for upshear training of cells.
Training will support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches along with
2-4 inch totals (locally higher possible), possibly resulting in
flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!50ok_py0H5cMwfG2UFx-iPz0bkXTimB5lGM9o2pO4O77mNsYo6y7m6UHINrhr8Z9Mc-rE3raWUC6PrUmXgcNI7sboJU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DMX...FSD...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45499769 45489682 45209568 44449408 43389340
42619381 42209474 42349631 42619726 43189815
43829882 44729899 45289848

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 06:27:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290627
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-291225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1139
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...eastern ND into portions of central/northern MN
and northwestern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290625Z - 291225Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across eastern
ND into central/northern MN and northwestern WI through 12Z. Areas
of training could produce hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and 2-3
inch rainfall in 3 hours or less.

Discussion...Area radar imagery from 0610Z showed widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms over central and northern MN and near
the Red River of the North, about 10-20 miles north of Fargo. This
activity was elevated and light/disorganized in appearance due to
a lack of instability as noted on the 06Z SPC mesoanalysis. MUCAPE
was estimated to be 100-500 J/kg over much of central to northern
MN, but was a bit higher between 500-1000 J/kg along the ND/MN
border where reflectivity was stronger compared to locations to
the east. The small cluster of thunderstorms near the Red River
contained some degree of training with MRMS hourly rainfall
peaking 1 inch across northeastern Cass County as of 0610Z, and
was located downstream of a subtle mid/upper level vorticity max
over east-central ND.

The continued northward advection of low level moisture via 20-40
kt of 805 mb flow over the ND/SD/MN tri-state region is expected
to increase MUCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range from eastern ND
into parts of western/northern MN and up to 500 J/kg for eastern
MN into northwestern WI through 12Z. The increase in elevated
instability will coincide with pockets of eroded CIN, supporting
additional scattered shower/thunderstorm development through the
remainder of the night, with added forcing ahead of the eastward
tracking vorticity max over east-central ND. If cells can align
with the mean steering flow from west to east, training could
support hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and 2 to 3 in totals in 3
hours or less. These localized higher totals could support
isolated flash flooding through ~12Z, though due to ongoing
drought conditions, any impacts would likely be confined to urban
or other areas of poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_5UAMKoQF5rcLkHR6L1748RBynyki-H5GG_KmXPgiqfhjvBKpGEJRxvDaIiOA86j3BDRLaNUFGDsxPFEP7N-veb3Wo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DLH...FGF...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48099593 47959359 47379141 45858940 44909033
44839240 45299511 46169718 46709802 47799778

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 13:16:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 291316
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-291800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1140
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
915 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina & Coastal South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291314Z - 291800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will move slowly along the
coast and near a stationary front through the early afternoon.
Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr will result in axes of 2-4" of
rain with locally higher amounts. This may cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows
persistent moderate rain with embedded convective elements aligned
to the North Carolina/South Carolina coasts. This activity is
developing just ahead of a surface stationary front analyzed by
WPC, with additional convective development occurring along the
front itself, as well as a weakening trough/land breeze boundary.
PWs this morning as measured via regional UA soundings were above
the 90th percentile (2.28" at KMHX, 2.31" at CHS) with saturated
adiabatic lapse rates noted through the entire column depth.
Freezing levels as high as 14,000 ft are supporting warm rain
processes, and this is resulting in hourly rainfall measured via
MRMS as high as 2.5" in the strongest convective cores.

The HRRR is struggling to resolve the current activity this
morning, but the RRFS and 3kmNAM are initializing better and in
agreement that activity will continue to expand/intensify for the
next several hours. This will be driven by MLCAPE spreading inland
from the coast coincident with synoptic ascent within the
favorably placed RRQ of an upper jet streak. While the RAP
suggests there will be some impressive CINH across the Pee Dee
region, otherwise the coasts of NC/SC and much of eastern NC will
support rainfall rates for which the HREF suggests has a 20-40%
chance of exceeding 2"/hr. Mean 0-6km winds of just 5-10 kts (less
along the stationary front where storms may feature nearly 0 net
motion for a while) aligned to the boundary should allow for training/backbuilding, leading to rainfall of 2-4" with locally
higher amounts (10-30% for 5+").

FFG across this region is naturally elevated at 3-4"/3hrs, but
7-day rainfall across parts of the area has been above 300% of
normal leading to somewhat more vulnerable soils. The HREF and
REFS both suggest around a 30-40% chance of FFG exceedance in a
few areas, especially between the Crystal Coast, Downeast NC, and
the Tidewater Region. While in general there appears to be only an
isolated risk for flash flooding through the afternoon, it is this
area that appears to have the greatest risk for impacts.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_GSAqkSSGEHTc551Ax6ma5DqJ8RLAXnzQhABjnkETeRxVDwgl-OybFfaoD9EegErPtEaOI5ota_cqCFdJ-HcbDA1WGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36387695 36217604 36107570 35637537 35187544
34717619 34297706 33677807 33077904 32707983
32768003 33218003 33587957 34027923 34567936
34837953 35127980 35577988 35827961 36037895
36307788

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 15:40:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 291540
FFGMPD
FLZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1141
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291538Z - 292130Z

Summary...Widespread showers and thunderstorms will advect onshore
the Atlantic Coast of Florida this morning before refocusing
inland/pinning on the Gulf breeze this afternoon. Rainfall rates
of 2-3"/hr are likely, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...GOES-E water vapor imagery this morning shows an
impressive plume of moisture surging northeast from the Gulf Coast
to along the Atlantic Seaboard. This moisture plume is being drawn
northward within the tail of a jet streak centered over eastern
Canada, and PWs measured via the morning UA soundings are above
the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology.
Farther east, a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) is
evident, beneath which impressive convective development has
occurred east of the Florida Peninsula. This activity is lifting
slowly northwestward on light (10-15 kts) 850mb flow, impinging
into the coast and then becoming enhanced along the frictional
convergence axis. Within the robust thermodynamics created via the
high PWs and MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg, MRMS hourly rainfall has been
as high as 1.75-2.0 inches along and east of the Gold Coast.

The high-res CAMs are struggling with the ongoing activity this
morning, creating lower than typical confidence in the convective
evolution through this aftn. However, impressive ascent driven via
diffluence in the tail of the jet streak aloft and within a weak
mid-level trough axis just west of the Peninsula, combined with
the more favorable environment beneath the TUTT, should produce
scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the aftn. Some of this
will be activity spreading onshore from the east, but additional
development is likely during the aftn along a weak surface trough
and then more impressively along the Gulf breeze which may become
pinned along the Sun Coast. Hourly rainfall above 2" is possible
(30-40% chance), which through repeating rounds (east) or
pinned/stalled storms (west) could result in 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts.

Much of South Florida has been in a drought recently, and 0-40cm
soil moisture is only in the 10th-30th percentile according to
NASA SPoRT. This has allowed FFG to be widespread of 3-4"/3hrs,
for which the exceedance probabilities are modest. However, the
widespread nature of heavy-rain producing cells could still
overwhelm soils, especially across urban areas, leading to
isolated instances of flash flooding through the aftn.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_YHLGr_2Jc6M2OQ76gUam7D6bN0oeO3krau7OsYYykWa-M7G_cG-yb_fMcscIkz9vnjPU21TCk1gWaUq9r6YHlYHxtI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28258062 28058029 27257985 26467975 25727991
25168039 25048094 25258128 25828178 26658240
27008256 27548273 28018287 28088265 27928244
27658221 27268189 26778143 26378111 26198082
26388062 26938061 27318084 27728105

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 18:14:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 291814
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-CAZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1142
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Western/Northern Arizona, Far Southern Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291813Z - 300000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in
coverage and then repeat from southwest to northeast through the
afternoon. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches may lead to
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E experimental Day-Cloud Phase RGB is
indicating a rapid uptick in glaciating convective clouds across
western and northern Arizona. This activity is blossoming in a
region of near-record PWs (measured via the 12Z UA sounding at PSR
of 1.69 inches) overlapping impressive MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
within the morning CINH erosion to create robust thermodynamics
supportive of heavy rain. The monsoon ridge to the east and an
amplifying trough to the west is pinching the region as well,
allowing impressive 700-500mb LPW to surge northward, further
enhancing the environment. Despite convective development just now
beginning, MRMS hourly rainfall has already exceeded 0.75" in a
few streaks, further indicative of the impressive environment.

The high-res CAMs are a bit slow to capture the ongoing
development, so activity through the aftn is expected to be more
robust than the current CAM suggestions. As weak impulses embedded
within the flow transit overhead the region and tap into the
ethermodynamics, additional convection should rapidly develop, and
widespread thunderstorms are expected more rapidly than the CAMs
indicate. When that happens, the HREF, REFS, and UA WRF all
suggest rainfall rates will exceed 0.5"/hr at times, and may reach
1"/hr. The limiting factor to flash flood impacts will be that the
mean storm motions should be relatively progressive to the
northeast at 15-20 kts, but modest shear around 20 kts and
widespread storms may allow for some mergers/collisions as well as
repeating rounds to enhance the total rainfall. This is reflected
by HREF and REFS neighborhood probabilities reaching 10-25% for 2"
in the next 6 hours.

Much of this region has been dry recently, although there have
been pockets of 7-day rainfall across the Slot Canyon region of
Utah, as well as the Mogollon Rim and Low Deserts of AZ, above
300% of normal. However, the natural vulnerability of this region
due to soils and terrain have maintained 1-hr FFG that is
generally 0.75-1.0 inches, which may be exceeded. While the
greatest risk will be across urban areas, burn scars, slot
canyons, and dry washes, any location that receives multiple
rounds of heavy rain through the evening may experience flash
flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Bxy1a-vGKjQbBKvPFeKCcgSR985_Apfna-1PGGZ0GmB_eU4VkKohinDuNsR7AY6pJefcf1FryHiVNq4wky1fSXv0Ao$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37751123 37411058 36571020 35641009 35061042
34141104 32671230 32121298 32111369 32511435
33361434 34341421 35121397 36811316 37351269
37751187

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 19:25:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 291925
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1143
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Northern & Central UT...Southwest WY...Northwest CO...East-Central NV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291925Z - 300100Z

SUMMARY...Initial round resulted in quick .3-.6" but additional
upstream thunderstorms are expanding with favorable back-building
along favored terrain to support repeating opportunities over the
next few hours. Intersections of widely scattered spots of 1"+
totals due to multiple rounds poses a low-end risk of localized
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Elongated/shearing stronger shortwave feature
continues to slide northeast into confluent flow across western WY
along the right entrance of well defined 70-80kt 250mb jet. So
strong dynamics aloft along with unstable air resulted in strong
convective line and scattered thunderstorms that have diminished
in coverage and intensity moving into more stable environment
across central WY. However, regional observations note a solid
swath of .25 to .5" totals across N Utah with localized .6-.7"
concentrated with the stronger cells that crossed from S Tooele
across Salt Lake into W Summit county. GOES-E WV shows broader
positive oriented longer wave trough remains upstream with another
jet streak crossing CA into NV at this time. This is further
enhancing left exit divergence to the right entrance region
providing strong vertical ascent across far E central NV into
northern UT. Combine this with a remaining MLCAPE pool of
750-1000 J/kg across that area, additional development upstream is
starting to occur across White Pine to W Tooele county. The more
anomalous element remains the available deep layer moisture that
had filtered northward over the past few days with lower
Valley/Salt Flat Total PWats in excess of 1.25" and .75-1" through
the western and central mountains of Utah.

The overall configuration of the jet is suggestive of an 850mb
wave to develop across west-southwest UT with weak but sufficient
south to southwest confluent 15-20kt flow along and downstream.
This flow is expected to maintain through the evening and support
an environment for redevelopment along the favored upslope. While
deep layer flow is very strong across N UT, steering is reduced
further south and fairly unidirectional (minus the low level confluence/convergence) to suggest convective that can back-build
will have potential for repeating or training elements; though
mean flow will still be quick enough for residency for higher
overall totals like the initial round; it is the potential for 2
or 3 rounds of .25-.5" that may result in localized spots of 1"+
(max 1.25-1.33") in 3-6hrs, especially upwind across UT, as
downstream stability increases through NW CO/SW WY. As such, a
low-end risk of localized flash flooding will be possible through
the evening given FFG values in that similar range at the 3-6hr
time periods.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-hE3G_WZywP1fPNg63wGyr-QKEn5dbJ4iNjMgp9PtE8p4xK0TAGL7YVsMujSm1ssYhYJw4p27gJ3smqMQoE70GpCrQ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...LKN...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41740987 41480856 40510816 39550859 38850943
38151084 37611261 37871354 38461388 38761411
39421493 40271430 41051261 41551100

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 20:55:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 292055
FFGMPD
AZZ000-300245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1144
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
454 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292100Z - 300245Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving cells capable of 1-1.5"/hr rates
may pose localized flash flooding risk through night-fall.

DISCUSSION...A favorable environment for slow moving monsoon
thunderstorms is starting to convectively initiate over southeast
AZ. GOES-E WV shows far western extension of large scale ridge
exists across the Rio Grande into northern Old Mexico while strong
northern stream ahead of deepening trough over the Northwest
provides solid sub-tropical return flow across the Southern
Deserts of AZ. The 700-500mb flow is weakly confluent over far SE
AZ, while west-southwest to westerly low level flow continues to
respond and deepen moisture flow out of the deserts toward the
I-19/I-10 corridor. Currently VWP has 5-10kts of westerly flow
but will continue to increase toward 15-20kt throughout the late
evening. Surface Tds in the lower to upper 50s from east to west
will continue to steadily increase as well as southeast edge of
the subtropical moisture stream as presented by the CIRA LPW at
700-500mb. Overall totals will increase by .25 to .33" in spots
reaching 1.5" values toward Tuscon while broad 1.25-1.33" to the
NM/AZ border. Core of highest unstable air remains over the Sun
Valley with values of 1500-2000 J/kg, though Axis extends
southward with gradient of 1000-1500 J/kg along I-19 providing
ample vertical updraft strength.

Current visible imagery shows initial convective initiation across
the typical mountain circulation ranges/peaks across Cochise and
Santa Cruz county into far E Pima and S Graham. As these mature,
sub-cloud evaporation should help as cores mature and become
efficient for 1-1.5"/hr rates. These will remain localized and
with very weak 700-500mb flow, may have sufficient residency for
totals of 1.5"+. This focused but widely scattered nature may
have some increasing clustering toward late evening, but still
should result in localized isolated to widely scattered incidents
of flash flooding through 02z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8oDWZZvVMaH-HM_4RrKeYOwhj8nQ--92v_A8DPqjdvieHW59u5kaEpHmY-6nhlsE7yB7SwHDxocmRd-LhuqHdLbKac8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34361023 34210937 33250937 31770910 31290927
31271024 31321127 31691224 32311245 33411240
33981197 34241105

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 29 23:42:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 292342
FFGMPD
COZ000-UTZ000-300530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1145
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
741 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...North-central & Eastern Utah...Northwest &
West-Central Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292345Z - 300530Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered potential for localized flash flooding
continues through the early overnight period as additional rounds
of storms capable of .5"/hr and additional 1" locally.

DISCUSSION...Strong dynamic setup remains and will likely continue
to force and/or maintain clusters of thunderstorms even as
remaining instability wanes or is exhausted. The early
morning/afternoon shortwave over WY has nearly sheared into the
confluent downstream zone into the Dakotas, though ongoing
convective line across northwest CO is along the right
entrance/influence of that exiting wave to help maintain.
However, convectively reinforced shortwave energy is lifting
northeast around the NW edge of the deep layer ridge further
south; crossing the Four Corners in the next hour or so. DPVA
ascent of this southwesterly low level confluent flow through
remaining conditionally unstable air (~1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE)
across south-central to east-central UT is aligned with deep layer
moisture flux stream that is reaching 1.25" of TPW. Clusters
will maintain solid vertical strength through southeast UT into W
CO and likely intersect the weakening outflow boundary. The convergence/confluence to the boundary and increasingly
unidirectional southwesterly flow (generally parallel to the
boundary) should aid the potential for random intersection of repeating/training remaining thunderstorms as well as, aligning
intersection with prior rainfall footprints across W/NW CO. Rates
of .5"/hr and potential for repeating suggests a streak or two of
up to an additional 1" is possible through the early overnight
period from SE UT into NW/west-central CO. Given lower FFG and
rugged terrain, potential for run-off suggests an isolated
incident of flash flooding remains possible.

Further northwest across north-central UT...
The connecting mid-level deformation zone between the exiting wave
and the approaching northern stream shortwave/jet streak
developing across NV along with entrapped deep layer moisture
through west-central UT (up to 1.3" TPW) and pockets of 1500 J/kg
of MUCAPE continue to support stronger clusters across Juab to
Utah/Sanpete counties. This stronger clusters could pose intense short-term/sub-hourly totals, however deep layer steering flow
continues to be very strong (40-45kts) along the southern edge of
the northern jet stream to limit overall totals to .5-.75" but
given solid upstream forcing, there will continue to be potential
for multiple rounds with localized streak up to 1" perhaps even
overlapping with .75-1" totals from earlier rounds. Given
short-term intensity, localized high run-off still poses isolated
to widely scattered incident or two of flash flooding through the
early overnight period here too.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9IQLAXs1Eg7SWYbRfGsPE-x8BKrHtS7oA6VvOYN_gx1uDmtoYQ7ZES2lk9hVX2hu9e3Xa02e-ffl_blSaSn0zvFLmTc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40830762 40360682 39400683 38500797 37910860
37100982 37071099 37161202 38091124 39131154
39301336 39861372 40571227 40821059

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 00:18:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 300017
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-300500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1146
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Arizona...Northwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300015Z - 300500Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding risk continues, particularly
along upstream, unstable edges of older outflow boundaries.
Focused 1-1.5"/hr totals remain possible through early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite trends show a convectively reinforced
shortwave is amplifying across the eastern San Francisco Plateau
lifting toward the Four Corners into SE UT/SW CO. Along the SW
upwind edge, low level moist, unstable inflow from the Desert
Valley flow is lifting up the Mogollon Rim and intersecting with
initial convective outflow boundaries to support recently
reinvigorated convection from Yavapai through N Gila with some
further development through S Navajo/Apache counties. RAP
analysis suggest remaining pocket of enhanced unstable air with
MLCAPEs of 2000-2500 J/kg across this region and given 10-15kts of
inflow countered by 15-20kts of SW to NE cell motions; favorable
back-building may result in localized stationary or slow motions
allowing for some increased residency. Total moisture in the
upper 50s/low 60s and totals of 1.25-1.4" should allow for
localize rates of 1-1.5"/hr and therefore spots of 1.5-2" are not
completely out of the question; proximity to Rim slopes and
naturally lower FFG (limited soil conditions) would promote solid
run-off and localized flash flooding risk with slow weakening as
instability is exhausted or diurnal waning.

Further east into NM, instability is not as high given later
arrival of shallower moisture/higher theta-E air; however, MUCAPEs
of 1000-1500 J/kg are supporting scattered stronger updrafts
supported by the dPVA from the shortwave lifting northeast and
convergence from outflow and general 850-700mb confluence along
the NW edge of the synoptic ridge over S NM attm. As such,
ongoing clusters can maintain but should be more widely scattered
and may be quicker moving toward the north and northeast as the
wave exits. Still naturally lower FFG over NW NM, and rates to
1"/hr could still result in a possible low-end flash flooding
concern though early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4xcYXEcuRCVB-XMmOZ6MvRfzqAWM5DocPT-0_JXSInVw4ke_xJ9DB7SNASG-wK9uDiJ8mwEkviZa1rb9Y0HstC5468c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36640779 36310668 35430655 34590685 33920817
33880967 33921034 34181244 34321303 35021255
35811121 36121025

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 01:40:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 300139
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-300730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
939 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...Northern South Dakota...ext Southern North
Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300140Z - 300730Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/splitting supercells will increase in
coverage as shortwave approaches expanding into a larger west to
east complex with rates up to 1.75"/hr & localized totals of 2-4"
resulting in possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...01z surface analysis continues to show an elongated
stationary front from a surface low north of the Black Hills along
I-90 to another surface low south of PIR and continuing into SW
MN. Moisture remains pooled along the boundary and through the
Missouri River Valley, but deeper low to mid-level moisture exists
across central MN and is advecting east to west under confluent
flow to pool into a broader area of 1.75+ Total PWat east of
surface pressure trof in the Missouri River Valley east of a
developing 850mb low. This low will continue to strengthen as a
well defined but fast moving shortwave crosses out of E WY into
the Dakotas in the next few hours. Deep layer convergence along
that north-south boundary north of the stationary front provided
sufficient ascent to break through weaker capping to utilize
modest 2500 J/kg conditionally unstable air north of the boundary
in the deeper moisture. Proximity to the strong jet aloft but
with enhancing height-falls approaching supports strong effective
bulk shear into the 50-55kt range to support supercell structures
initially. The low level confluence from the east, bent Bunker's
Right moving cell propagation vectors to be well reduced and
therefore propagation has been limited. This resulted in a
localized cell to slow accumulate rainfall totals in SE Walworth
county toward 2-3" and MRMS FLASH (while slightly hail
contaminated), still resulted in pocket of 200-400 cfs/sq. mi.
generally suggestive of a local flooding concern, but was very
small in scale. However, that moisture/hail loading into the
updrafts has recently resulted in some splitting of cells, further
reducing local residency.

However, with the approach of the height-falls is a leading strong
shortwave across E WY that also has a favorable outflow channel to
the northeast in a jet streak denoted in GOES-E WV as cirrus
shield with transverse banding across SE MT into ND. This will
further provide cyclogenesis and direct circulation enhancement to
the frontal zone and strengthen LLJ with SE to NE confluence along
the boundary bringing moisture flux up to bring PWat values over
2" supporting further rates up to 1.75-2"/hr as individual cell(s)
begin to cluster/grow upscale into a complex. RAP forecast
suggests a strong downslope westerly wind burst will surge across
SW SD/NE NEB further aiding to cyclogenesis in the left rotor with
850-700mb flow strengthening to 15-25kts and expanding the deep
layer moisture flux convergence west to east. While not generally
parallel to the strengthening deep layer steering flow, sufficient
bulk shear will continue to support rotating updrafts and reduce
forward motions even hinting at potential for repeating axis
across northern South Dakota. Given this streak(s) of 2-3" with
isolated spot or two of 4" are becoming increasingly possible.

While the region has slightly drier than normal upper soil
conditions (0-40cm per NASA SPoRT LIS RSM product), Hourly FFG
values of 1-1.5" are mixed in with 2-2.5" spots east of 100W;
becoming 1.5-2" and 2.5-3" for the 3 hour range. Given the
potential for 2-3" and spots of 4", localized exceedance is
becoming increasingly possible within/along the 850-700mb shear
axis suggesting localized flash flooding will be possible through
the early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!438bGfqxvjWboJFq8YUIGqf_AuBac8Lwt33BgycFF7W84tsFFUi0cNWyc54-5XxGWVFgXBOQZhnhudlsxk9tuzFLMUs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 46349900 45659812 44849831 44659947 44630131
44870256 45610270 46240138

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 03:17:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 300317
FFGMPD
AZZ000-300800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1116 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Areas affected...southern/central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300315Z - 300800Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will continue for
portions of southern to central AZ over the next 3-5 hours,
although expectations are for a waning trend in convective vigor
into the night.

DISCUSSION...03Z infrared satellite and radar imagery showed an
outflow boundary arcing from Gila to northwestern Pinal and
west-central Pima counties, advancing west and northwest, ahead of
lingering monsoonal convection to its south and east. The outflow
has been associated with an increase in low level moisture,
resulting in a temporary increase in near surface-based
instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.0-8.0 C/km.
As cells have propagated west to north with the outflow boundary's
movement, MRMS has shown hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and
15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 02Z showed 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in
place over south-central to central AZ with varying degrees of
convective inhibition, but overall cloud top trends have shown
warming across Pima County while cooling from northeastern Pinal
into Gila counties. With increasing inhibition and slowing of the
outflow boundary's speed, low level forcing for ascent appears to
be lessening. However, satellite and radar trends suggest
additional convective development appears most likely into
portions of eastern Maricopa, southern Yavapai and northern Gila
counties as the northern portion of the outflow continues to
advance in the direction of ongoing thunderstorms over Yavapai
County. 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected with
the strongest cells and slow cell movement could yield up to about
2 inches of additional total rainfall for isolated locations.
Weakening of cells is expected in the 06-08Z time frame which
should reduce or possibly end the remaining flash flood threat
across AZ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!90YTRgL0TJMaBW-MzQ5hgCntIjQVcMncTDsFdTXX7B4AtfGEHMLmW-ZCdodifFMYVBZeYmdN47nqZ4VqSQq5Eo91WpA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35141153 35011060 34550963 33740989 32951057
31571174 31641255 31951316 33051303 34231301
34911257

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 07:51:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 300750
FFGMPD
NDZ000-MTZ000-301300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1149
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...northeastern MT into ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300748Z - 301300Z

SUMMARY...A few slow moving thunderstorms could produce localized
areas of flash flooding across portions of northeastern MT into a
sizable portion of ND through 13Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches could result in isolated storm total rainfall maxima
of/over 3 inches through 13Z, although these higher totals are
expected to remain isolated.

DISCUSSION...0730Z GOES East water vapor imagery showed
southwesterly flow aloft over the Dakotas with an embedded
shortwave near the central ND/SD border, just upstream of the
ridge axis located north/south over western MN. The shortwave
along the ND/SD border has been associated with scattered strong
to severe thunderstorms across northern SD while another impulse
on water vapor imagery was associated with weaker and scattered showers/thunderstorms near the northern MT/ND border in the
vicinity of a pair of outflow boundaries.

RAP and VAD wind data showed a well defined 850 mb low in
west-central SD, with a northwestward extending trough axis into
eastern MT and southwestern Saskatchewan. A zone of modest 850 mb confluence/convergence was in place over ND where MLCAPE was
estimated to be 1000 to 2000+ J/kg via 07Z SPC mesoanalysis data,
with little to no CIN extending from near Williston to Devils Lake
and as far south as I-90. An anomalous plume of moisture was also
over ND with PWs ranging from 1.2 inches across the northwestern
part of the state to 1.7 inches in the southeastern part.

Expectations are for lift tied to the impulse(s) on water vapor
imagery to combine with lower level ascent focused near 850 mb to
result in at least a modest increase in thunderstorm activity over
the next few hours across northwestern to east-central ND. There
remains some uncertainty in the coverage of storms however, given
poor model handling of this region of the U.S. so far and only
modest low level convergence in place. Should thunderstorms
develop and become more numerous overnight, high hourly rainfall
will be possible with slow moving cells given ND was located
within a weakness in the mean steering flow with 0-6 km mean layer
winds of only 5 to 15 kt. 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour
(locally higher) may develop, resulting in potential for isolated
rainfall maxima over 3 inches through 13Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7DNuz4HNpj71RWLS2nLhOVIutB2wDUW18o3qS6y-NeHhs7YExhVnCHhB-GVnjyQ6khvQv1fT6k5I8QIeFjy0Pv_aKxA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48970194 48780015 48179827 47399781 46709829
46559925 46630087 47020231 47550358 48010494
48850499

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 16:05:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 301604
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-302000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...Northern Utah, Northwestern Colorado, & Southern
Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301603Z - 302000Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms over Utah may cause localized
areas of flash flooding into early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION... A strong upper level shortwave trough centered
across Montana will provide the forcing needed to allow already
ongoing showers and storms across northwestern Colorado to break
the cap. Inflow into the right entrance region of a weak jet
streak will also provide additional lift into this afternoon.
Moisture values are over 1 inch across eastern Utah, which is 2
sigma above normal. Despite the abundant cloud cover, instability
is building, mostly over Utah, with values over 1,000 J/kg in some
areas. While instability hasn't yet built across Colorado, RAP
forecasts for the next few hours suggest instability will build to
over 1,500 J/kg into parts of northwestern Colorado over the next
few hours. Time will tell if the cloud cover present over that
area will allow this.

HRRR and a few other HiRes guidances suggest more widely scattered
storms form across this region over the next few hours, most
likely towards 20Z. Considering some of these areas have seen rain
for much of the morning, as well as much of this area seeing rain
over the past couple days, it appears probable that additional
flash flooding will occur from these storms into the early
afternoon.

This area will continue to be evaluated with a likely update for
this area this afternoon, depending on how well instability builds
and how plentiful storm coverage is near the end of this
discussion period.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8micVSHka-vHE54el-14DQ9ESarVxTyUb51sUiRZJMmzQH5k95NuOf-ZFW3NYmUYGHxd8_t4d80GlGqwtUvKdxuN-AE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GJT...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41620755 41400624 40680583 39870589 39590633
39250757 38850903 38731042 38521184 38271249
38211264 38081311 38921304 40171200 41201069
41530933

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 18:40:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 301840
FFGMPD
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-310000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1151
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...Southern Utah...Northern Arizona...Southwest
Colorado...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301840Z - 310000Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms within strong but unidirectional
flow may support short-duration repeating but quick intense
rainfall bursts of .5-1" in less than an hour with localized
maximum totals of 1.25-1.5" possible to result in focused but
widely scattered incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad long-wave trough across
the Pacific Northwest with leading stronger shortwave exiting
northern UT at the tail end of stronger jet streak, leaving much
of central UT into CO in divergent right entrance region for broad
scale ascent; while another 70kt speed max upstream over S CA into
S NV is providing left exit ascent and weak low level cyclogenesis
into SW UT with a sharpening mid-level shear axis across
south-central UT into W-central CO. Add a bit of broad scale
ascent from sub-tropical jet streak out of AZ/NM border through S
CO and overall dynamics are solid for any thunderstorm activity
that develops. While the strong dynamics will limit residency
time for any given storm given 30-40kts of SW to NE steering flow,
the effective bulk shear from 35 to 45kt and increasing 850-700mb
southwesterly flow 20-35kts may help to counteract by providing a
solid back-building upstream convergence regime for short-term
repeating of updrafts with some weak rotation/localized
isallobaric moisture flux for efficient rainfall production.

CIRA LPW shows moisture axis (especially above 700mb) is further
east across NE AZ into SW CO, but the Surface to 700mb moisture
distribution is solid supporting .75 to locally 1" total PWats
(though source in the lower AZ deserts is over 1.75", and trying
to become deep enough to filter into the San Francisco Plateau and
Grand Canyon Region. Given those lapse rates but solid insolation
today, MLCAPEs have been increasing to 1000-1250 J/kg perhaps
reaching 1500 J/kg over the next few hours. As such, those
updrafts should be strong, but perhaps a bit narrow initially.
Still, flux convergence should support rates up to 1.25"/hr though
as mentioned, residency will be the key but quick .5-.75" in 15-30
minutes in harder ground conditions would still result in quick
run-off/flash flooding. Overall coverage should be a bit less
than yesterday but locally saturated grounds would be once again
an issue to increase run-off and so widely scattered incidents of
flash flooding are once again considered possible this afternoon
through evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5myqBPJoroRvyNnquVuhweuSJIKcHHgJTlA7OpiY4zMc89CNzMYs2WkJjAs_wwGkAcApgg7rTXvdsNIccIi_uGgTClQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39550804 39300697 38190724 37020905 35431047
34851160 35541315 36581368 37381375 38001351
38621265 39261036

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 22:39:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 302239
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-310400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1152
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
638 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...Southern and Central Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302240Z - 310400Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving monsoon thunderstorms will have potential
for clustering and localized rates to 1-1.5"/hr and isolated
totals to 2".

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and regional RADAR mosaic depict a few
axes of convective initiation along the outer periphery of the
deeper layer moisture gradients with the more vigorous across La
Paz into S Mohave county where there is a broad field of cu
indicative of the higher instability. Gulf of California moisture
has pooled through the Lower Colorado into the deserts with high
60s even low 70s Tds across, though mid-level higher capping in
far SW AZ is slightly cooler aloft where the activation and cu
field exists with 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE; with the moisture and
instability axis starting to angle SW to NE across the Sun Valley
into the central Mogollon Rim toward the confluent northern stream
from the coastal Californian Pacific and the south to
southeasterly flow returning out of NW Mexico around the edge of
the ridge.

An MCV from last night's complex over Sonora continues to slowly
drift west toward the Gulf coast, but a northward
confluence/convergence band extends into W Pima county where
convergence and slightly weak anticyclonic curvature into the moisture/instability axis has further maximized moisture
convergence for a few Tcu/CBs in a smaller cu field. A few
isolated thunderstorms along higher mountain ridges in Cochise
county and far SW NM, will continue to advance westward as well;
but strengthening southerly low level flow is expected to help
further expand convective activity into clusters across S central
and West-central AZ through the early overnight. Given total
PWats of 1.75" and 10-15kts increasing toward 20kts, moisture flux
should allow for efficient rainfall with rates up to 1.5"/hr.
Deep layer steering is still weak in the broad area between
streams, at 5-10kts generally convergent to suggest some possible
mergers or at least colliding outflow boundaries to perpetuate new
development. As such, isolated to widely scattered cells may
result in localized 2" totals. Still, even 30 minute intense
rates with .5-1" totals may still result in localized flash
flooding for the remainder of the evening into the early overnight
period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8tQDitV1m9QUjj9AedeZSprgBr5fcCbgjT9Wn8REZ0EM1E_Rwjf63vG6jhjqokAZ05BS4AAzPZJIouwZ-Z2XSxpzQcc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35331208 34271084 33780958 32870961 31550920
31180969 31161029 31301170 31621242 31801292
32621326 33161367 33781448 34611403 35261340

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 30 23:42:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 302341
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-310530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1153
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
740 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Utah...Western Colorado...Northwest New Mexico...Northeast Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302345Z - 310530Z

SUMMARY...Scattered incidents of flash flooding remain possible
though early overnight period as scattered to numerous
thunderstorms cross the Four Corners with sub-hourly .5-1" totals.
A few random repeats may allow for isolated totals to 1.5".

DISCUSSION...GOES-E/W WV suite continues to present a very dynamic
environment across the Intermountain west as upstream shortwave is
digging into a more closed low over central coast of California
with broadening shortwave ridging (and diffluence) across UT/N AZ
while much of CO remains in the expanding right entrance region of
the exiting stronger 90+kt jet. All of which provides broad scale
ascent pattern across the Four Corners to maintain stronger
embedded thunderstorms. Combined with return
moisture/instability out of the low deserts of AZ through the San
Francisco Plateau ahead of a developing shortwave to help
accelerate surface to mid-level southwesterly moisture flux across
the area. As such, GOES-E 10.3um EIR and Visible loop shows
numerous lines of active cores and overshooting tops within
generally WSW to ENE bands across central UT into central CO;
southern UT into S CO and more scattered/fragmented cores across
NE AZ into NW NM. Strong bulk shear is allowing for stronger,
rotating updrafts capable of further moisture flux convergence
into the bases for efficient low level rainfall production. Above
normal (95th percentile) moisture with broad area of 1-1.25" in
lower terrain and .75-1" across the mid-sized ranges provide ample
moisture. However, the higher shear comes at a loss of residency
for any given cells, but sub-hourly totals of .5-.1" remain
possible given updrafts strength via remaining broad area of 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE, that will slowly diminish with loss of heating.
Though orientation of cells with deep unidirectional steering flow
may promote random repeating for very spotty 1.5" totals.

Recent daily cycles of scattered thunderstorms have further
reduced the already naturally low FFG values across the region
with most below 1"/hr and less than 1.5"/3hrs, not to mention
naturally complex terrain/steep slopes, narrow canyons, and
arroyos to help channel the high runoff. As such scattered
incidents of flash flooding remain possible through the early
overnight period across the Four Corners states.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!54W-w1FuzPIGpuB1_old-7de7hVG4DV0hZ5l-rkkfF3F6CSGL8mJvoVrPCSvH-m4PXjM7f0-xa_8LzneaGB3274Y9Q8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40880899 40780784 40220703 39080639 37920700
36980665 35910712 34440820 33960971 34901103
37231174 39131159 40041183 40721067

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 04:24:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 310424
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-310915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1154
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1223 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 310422Z - 310915Z

SUMMARY...Nocturnal thunderstorms are expected to persist and
possibly initiate across portions of AZ through 09Z. A general
northward motion is expected with these storms, which will be
capable of 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour or less.

DISCUSSION...GOES infrared satellite and radar imagery at 04Z
showed a small cluster of thunderstorms just south of the Phoenix
metro along with a few cells expanding to the west of Phoenix to
the north of I-10 in western Maricopa County. Elsewhere,
additional cells which were more discrete in nature were noted in
southern Mohave and La Paz counties. New cell development appears
to be related to outflow associated with the expanding cluster of
storms near and west of Phoenix. MLCAPE varied across central to
north-central AZ from about 500 to just over 1500 J/kg via 03Z SPC
mesoanalysis data and the 00Z RAOB from PSR, along with varying
degrees of near-surface CIN. Moisture was anomalous with the
latest blended TPW imagery showing 125 to 175 percent of normal
across central and western AZ as of 03Z.

Given AZ was located between an advancing closed low along the
south-central CA coast and elongated ridge axis extending through
southern NM, mean steering flow of cells is likely to remain
toward the north and northeast overnight. Low level southerly to
southwesterly flow over central to southern AZ, aligned with the
mean steering flow could allow for a few areas of repeating and
short term training. The environment has already shown capability
for hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with slower moving cells,
which should continue across localized portions of central to
north-central AZ over the next 3-5 hours.

Some short term model guidance indicates the potential for
additional convective development across portions of southeastern
AZ later tonight, with expansion northward, although this remains
uncertain given the current level of thunderstorm activity across
the region is low. Nonetheless, some limited potential for
additional development will remain to the east of the Phoenix
metro later tonight, with movement toward the north.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4JvZlGN0jsFhoUy5aE9gvpmZgtHtBUNlCt02PCHSHBYFrCw2rrpBZ-Y6QFQQNY4oJRDW2dgilITliVSNlxnoPJqisxc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36371293 36261206 35361084 34051064 32870987
32111024 32781193 33361321 33801400 34481429
35461426 36081356

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 05:31:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 310531
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-310930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1155
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Four Corners region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310529Z - 310930Z

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated flash flooding will persist
across the Four Corners region through 09Z. Repeating and brief
training of thunderstorms will be capable of 1-2 inches of rain in
an hour.

DISCUSSION...0510Z infrared satellite and radar imagery showed
widely scattered thunderstorms over northeastern AZ into
southeastern UT and northwestern NM, with southwestern CO fairly
quiet at the moment. SPC mesoanalysis data from 05Z showed PWs
near 1 inch across the Four Corners region and lingering MLCAPE of
~500 J/kg over northeastern AZ into far southeastern UT with less
than 500 J/kg into CO and NM. Despite the fairly limited
instability, upstream regeneration of cells has been noted across
northeastern NM into southeastern UT (Navajo into southern San
Juan counties). The continued development appears to be related to
lower level southwesterly flow interacting with storm-related
outflows, beneath divergent and diffluence noted aloft within the right-entrance region of a strengthening 70-90 kt jet max
extending northeastward from the UT/CO border.

Expectations are for isolated flash flood potential to persist
across the For Corners region over the next 3-5 hours, mainly
across northeastern AZ into far southeastern UT and perhaps
northwestern NM into southwestern CO where forecast instability is
expected to remain the greatest. While likely to remain rather
isolated in nature, the potential for hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches will continue the limited possibility for flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!83qe7GfKSqxWg9AZQ0u28Tui9WgXmWsQzu9XUIVoBdDKl4afVK36RW7V2SaXfF3r3MwCmZLfzDFR8mKUcS59dcwYz88$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38310852 38130727 37490615 36060619 34830754
34390894 34240988 34971063 36071143 36861125
37371080 38090980

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 09:16:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 310916
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-311400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1156
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
515 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...central to eastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310914Z - 311400Z

SUMMARY...Continued rounds of nocturnal thunderstorms will
maintain at least an isolated flash flood risk across portions of
central to eastern AZ through 14Z. Hourly rainfall locally
exceeding 1 inch but with 15 minute rainfall between 0.5 and 1.0
inches should be expected.

DISCUSSION...0845Z infrared satellite and radar imagery showed a
few regions with ongoing convection across central to
southern/southeastern AZ. The remains of an earlier cluster of
thunderstorms that passed through the Phoenix metro between 04-05Z
was located near Flagstaff, although it had weakened into a pocket
of more stable air. However, an embedded MCV appears to be present
just south of Flagstaff with renewed convective development along
its eastern flank, along with a tail of convection extending
southward from just south of the MCV circulation into southern
Pima County. At least one other mesoscale circulation with
neighboring thunderstorms to its south was present in southeastern
AZ.

These storms were all tracking generally north within weakly
confluent low to mid-level flow, embedded within a ribbon of
anomalous moisture in the mid to upper levels, as seen on OSPO
ALPW imagery streaming north from western Mexico. Remaining
instability varied across the region per RAP and SPC mesoanalysis
data, but 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE was estimated over portions of
central to southern AZ, while a small region of MLCAPE up to ~500
J/kg was present across northeastern AZ.

Outflows and mesoscale circulations embedded within the mean south
to southwesterly flow are expected to continue periods of
convection through sunrise across central to eastern AZ. Repeating
and brief merging of cells may produce heavy rain with hourly
rainfall locally exceeding 1 inch and high sub-hourly rates of 0.5
to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes. While these higher rain rates are
expected to remain localized, overlap with normally dry washes and
sensitive terrain could result in areas of flash flooding through
~14Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8vz4q0V8w6hhds9pK5SF7E2UkSdyP4nSJhIzXQMd1XdDixLMi8UgTVjqWbBtAiZ845bLfba3X4sdPHOBPXsTCYiEazM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36671006 36580927 35970890 34750890 33420890
32020902 31250916 31131006 31401140 31931195
33171223 34881212 35811186 36501115

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 14:08:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 311407
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-312005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1157
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1007 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arizona, Utah, and eastern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311405Z - 312005Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across southern Arizona
in the near term, but will expand northward into much of Utah
through 20Z/2p mountain.

Discussion...A mid-level trough over central California was
continuing to provide forcing/ascent for widespread convection
primarily across eastern AZ and far southern UT this morning. The
greatest concentration of flash flood potential exists across
south-central AZ, where ascent is combining with greater
surface-based instability (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and very high
moisture content (1.5+ inch PW) for occasional strong storms with
local rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr at times. These rates were
exceeding FFG on a localized basis, while occasionally occurring
in/near sensitive terrain, prompting continued flash flood
potential in the near term particularly from Phoenix Metro
southward to the International Border.

Recent visible satellite imagery depicts several areas of
cumulus/towering cumulus across areas from western AZ into
south-central NV and western UT, with deeper convection also noted
in south-central UT. That region is also under the influence of
the aforementioned CA mid/upper wave (providing ascent), and as sunshine/destabilization occurs amid the moisture plume over the
area (characterized by 0.75-1.5 inch PW), additional storms with
flash flood potential will likely materialize. Kinematic fields
support appreciable northward/north-northeastward drift of
individual cells, although as convection expands in coverage,
areas of backbuilding and merging will prolong rainfall enough to
promote local 1 inch/hr rain rates and flash flood potential -
especially near sensitive terrain and/or burn scars.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9vf5uKDVSGy21RWrUYw9xOe1LzwpZVHoNX9eBYuvV4_RfOTglH8Dg8MsfXBVla6tB34zVvxHrz0-7ttdnDTJMQ1usn0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40151162 39211038 37760999 36131023 33781034
32021071 31401106 31521239 32191399 32671469
33721440 34841461 36191496 38761498 39751432
40111312

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 17:03:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 311636
FFGMPD
FLZ000-312234-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311634Z - 312234Z

Summary...Isolated/spotty flash flood potential exists especially
in urban areas of central and south Florida through 22Z/6p eastern.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms are developing primarily
along the eastern coast of Florida currently. The storms are
forming in response to subtle seabreeze and inland heating amid a
very moist/unstable airmass (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 2.4 inch PW)
capable of fostering very heavy rainfall beneath mature storms.
The environment also contains minimal convective inhibition, weak
forcing, and nearly negligible steering flow aloft, supporting
outflow-dominant storms with slow/erratic movement. Storms were
already producing spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates in Miami/Dade
Metro (per MRMS), supporting an isolated flash flood risk in that
area. On the whole, rain rates should only exceed FFG on a spotty
basis, with flash flood potential tied to urban areas where
hydrophobic surfaces can foster excessive runoff.

Over the next 4-6 hours, convection will continue to expand in
coverage due to continued surface heating/destabilization.
Increasing incidences of mergers should result in local rain rates
exceeding 2 inches/hr at times as well. Storms should also
develop/propagate toward the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
in the 20-22Z timeframe as well.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6gFAFBCGZn0ftbPVPYCzvc8Dz_32Slrt3vwwvp7xJBQG8fyYZXfv_VHJnGBvNflNBq5MoFvGIS67VD6xyueQ1eajNcI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28888117 27978035 26397999 25178045 25058105
25878179 27398277 28288280 28758216

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 19:39:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 311938
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-010110-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nevada...Central and Southern
Utah...Northwest Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311940Z - 010110Z

SUMMARY...Scattered very intense, efficient thunderstorms with
capability of 1.5"/hr rates and widely scattered 1.5-2.5" totals
(possible isolated 3") likely to result in flash flooding into
this evening. Overlap with highly prone, flashy rivers/canyons,
may result in spots of significant flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV loop shows longwave trough is sliding
through the developing closed shortwave over central NV providing
increased vorticity across east-central NV into SW UT, this is
concurrent with strong broadly anticyclonically curved jet streak
across central AZ to NE UT denoted well by broad cirrus canopy
with embedded west to east transverse banding indicative of the
strengthening jet. This shield is also dense enough to have
limited the insolation across portions of the Four Corners, but
west where full insolation has occurred is also under broad
diffluence along with the dPVA for strong upper-level
support/outflow regime for convective development.

CIRA LPW also denotes the strong synoptic structure to the
deepening cyclone through layers, with 700-500mb denoting
important structures across NV, with tight inner core enhanced
moisture near the mid-level cyclone extending eastward along the
deep layer frontal/deformation zone pooled across north-central
UT, while a narrow dry slot crosses Clark county nosing toward SW
UT. In the lowest layers, the sub-tropically connected surface to
700mb layers show a narrow ribbon of anomalous moisture with Tds
in the mid to upper 60s in the Colorado River Valley proper,
angling to the nose of the aforementioned dry slot while broader
850-700mb .5-.66" moisture covers NW AZ filtering into UT. As
such Total PWats of 1.25-1.5" fill the valley extending into far
southern UT spread eastward into SE UT. These moisture values are
2-3 standard anomalies from normal in monsoon season with some
portions of northern and central UT reaching 97th to 99th
percentiles through this evening.

With the full insolation and note of low level moisture
intersected with steepening lapse rates in the narrow dry slot,
RAP analysis denotes a small pocket of 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across
far SE NV but 1500-2000 J/kg extend outward along a well defined
effective dryline (60s dropping to 30s within 50-100km) generally
between LSV and DRA/TPH and then again with a drop off between
mid-50s Tds and low 40s Tds across west-central UT, though strong
southerly (10-15kts) is helping to filter/deepen moisture profiles
northward with time.

As such, given the divergence/dPVA, scattered to numerous
thunderstorms have developed in the diffluent region across SE NV
into SW UT. Cores are broadening with time and broader than
typical up/downdrafts in average monsoon days. This will increase
local residency though forward cell motions are 20-30kts, only
slowed by weak to moderate updraft rotation (note bulk shear in
the 40-45kt range). The overall moisture flux will support rates
of 1.5"/hr and given orientation of linear features in the
diffluent region, there could be random intersections in 2-4 hour
ranges to support localized 1.5-2.5" totals with an isolated spot
or two of 3"+ not withstanding. The sheer intensity alone on
rugged/rocky terrain would result in flash flooding, but longer
than normal durations at any given point will likely result in
scattered to numerous incidents of flash flooding this afternoon
into evening. Where cells align for repeating and totals of
2-3", an incident or two of significant or even catastrophic flash
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7JSfm8zdLzbgerfEYaSuFEOPCA8CBkJR5QqVIMi9100R3tDEiDldH-3xDd6TLnUJZ_2qgCfT9xVxUvXnecpJTCOYGoc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40581104 39911019 38671027 37091088 35771162
34751267 35141364 35981423 37061498 37741555
38531636 39101627 39511535 39601524 40501296

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 19:42:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 311941
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-010130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1159...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Corrected for Valid Time

Areas affected...Southeast Nevada...Central and Southern
Utah...Northwest Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311940Z - 010130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered very intense, efficient thunderstorms with
capability of 1.5"/hr rates and widely scattered 1.5-2.5" totals
(possible isolated 3") likely to result in flash flooding into
this evening. Overlap with highly prone, flashy rivers/canyons,
may result in spots of significant flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV loop shows longwave trough is sliding
through the developing closed shortwave over central NV providing
increased vorticity across east-central NV into SW UT, this is
concurrent with strong broadly anticyclonically curved jet streak
across central AZ to NE UT denoted well by broad cirrus canopy
with embedded west to east transverse banding indicative of the
strengthening jet. This shield is also dense enough to have
limited the insolation across portions of the Four Corners, but
west where full insolation has occurred is also under broad
diffluence along with the dPVA for strong upper-level
support/outflow regime for convective development.

CIRA LPW also denotes the strong synoptic structure to the
deepening cyclone through layers, with 700-500mb denoting
important structures across NV, with tight inner core enhanced
moisture near the mid-level cyclone extending eastward along the
deep layer frontal/deformation zone pooled across north-central
UT, while a narrow dry slot crosses Clark county nosing toward SW
UT. In the lowest layers, the sub-tropically connected surface to
700mb layers show a narrow ribbon of anomalous moisture with Tds
in the mid to upper 60s in the Colorado River Valley proper,
angling to the nose of the aforementioned dry slot while broader
850-700mb .5-.66" moisture covers NW AZ filtering into UT. As
such Total PWats of 1.25-1.5" fill the valley extending into far
southern UT spread eastward into SE UT. These moisture values are
2-3 standard anomalies from normal in monsoon season with some
portions of northern and central UT reaching 97th to 99th
percentiles through this evening.

With the full insolation and note of low level moisture
intersected with steepening lapse rates in the narrow dry slot,
RAP analysis denotes a small pocket of 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across
far SE NV but 1500-2000 J/kg extend outward along a well defined
effective dryline (60s dropping to 30s within 50-100km) generally
between LSV and DRA/TPH and then again with a drop off between
mid-50s Tds and low 40s Tds across west-central UT, though strong
southerly (10-15kts) is helping to filter/deepen moisture profiles
northward with time.

As such, given the divergence/dPVA, scattered to numerous
thunderstorms have developed in the diffluent region across SE NV
into SW UT. Cores are broadening with time and broader than
typical up/downdrafts in average monsoon days. This will increase
local residency though forward cell motions are 20-30kts, only
slowed by weak to moderate updraft rotation (note bulk shear in
the 40-45kt range). The overall moisture flux will support rates
of 1.5"/hr and given orientation of linear features in the
diffluent region, there could be random intersections in 2-4 hour
ranges to support localized 1.5-2.5" totals with an isolated spot
or two of 3"+ not withstanding. The sheer intensity alone on
rugged/rocky terrain would result in flash flooding, but longer
than normal durations at any given point will likely result in
scattered to numerous incidents of flash flooding this afternoon
into evening. Where cells align for repeating and totals of
2-3", an incident or two of significant or even catastrophic flash
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4V62Gx10gy4WZ-3cJOLgRvrYQhIRXMd4zO3EeLCvrBuIUc3_4usBUalRQ0kLUXQjKO_QchCn6RqkE46BXiMj3xQGmOY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40581104 39911019 38671027 37091088 35771162
34751267 35141364 35981423 37061498 37741555
38531636 39101627 39511535 39601524 40501296

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 20:30:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 312030
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-010200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1160
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona...Bootheel of New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312030Z - 010200Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding risk continues as cluster of
thunderstorms shifts east through far southern AZ. Rates up to
1.5"/hr and slow eastward propagation may result in spots of 2"
totals may result in localized flash flooding through evening.

DISCUSSION...KEMX and GOES-E Visible imagery depict a
strengthening north-south line of convection across far southeast
Cochise county with broad shield precipitation extending northward
into the broad right entrance region of exiting upper-level jet
streak. However, very unstable air mass still resides across much
of northern Sonora into NW Chihuahua/far SW New Mexico with pool
of conditionally unstable/moist air supportive of 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, though eastern edge of deep layer subtropical moisture
feed reduces below 1" around 108W. Solid southerly flow off the
eastern Gulf of California is helping to recharge the upstream
environment in the wake of the initial line across Pima county; as
such, risk of additional thunderstorm development through late
evening will keep risk of potential flash flooding westward as
well as broad confluence along/ahead of the main longwave trough
continues upstream as well. Total PWats still remain above 1.4"
and given the moisture flux confluence in the stream from the
unmixed air across northern Old Mexico into SE AZ, rates of
1.25-1.5"/hr remain possible. Residency could add for timing as
eastward propagation remains slow as deep layer steering into the
right entrance region remains south to north. As such a spot or
two of 2" totals is possible. Given recent rains across much of
the area for multiple days and rocky/rugged terrain, localized
flash flooding remains possible through the evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8njqRrPWR5rsWO_Qyv9Ypuov5RxOCiyREm2L3AGp7MHPzGvJksglWAbXlT4Wn12egXYHG_ZQhzE48UgPb1QRbd2QX4Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33190963 32300881 31980837 31660807 31310816
31260871 31271067 31291114 31391168 31801286
32131293 32061206 32211121 33031020

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 22:09:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 312209
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-010330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1161
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
608 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Lower Colorado River Valley of Southwest AZ and
Adj. CA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312210Z - 010330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, high moisture content thunderstorms capable
of 1.5-2"/hr rates resulting in localized 1.5-2.5" totals and
possible incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows sharp gradient in 7.4um,
Low-Level of warm air along the upwind edge of the Lower Colorado
River, confirmed in the 700-500mb LPW suite as dry air helps to
steepen lapse rates. This concurrent with surface to 700mb
southerly flow in VWP continuing to usher high theta-E air through
the Valley with mid-60s Tds and pockets of .75-.8" in the
Sfc-850mb layer. RAP analysis denotes Tds drop quickly west of
the River resulting in a strong north-south density gradient and
with weak confluence along it from the SSE and SSW, provides
sufficient convergence for isolated to widely scattered convective
initiation over the last hour or so, with additional TCu within a
narrow field of cu across SW Arizona along the 2000 J/kg MLCAPE
instability axis.

Effective bulk shear in the 35kt range suggests modest
organization to the updrafts with weak rotation already denoted in
RADAR and Meso-sector Visible imagery (please refer to SPC MCD
2182 for more details). As such, localized isallobaric response
further increases moisture flux of the 1.7-1.9" Total PWat air to
support rates of 1.5-1.75"/hr, with time, some isolated 2"/hr
rates could be possible as sub-base environment moistens with
initial downdrafts. Deep layer flow, deflected slightly by the
rotation of the updrafts will result in slowed forward speed to
the ENE at 10-15kts. This will increase local residency time and
widely scattered spots of 2-2.5" totals may result. This is
generally in line with the evolution of the 18z RRFS/Nam-Nest
which seem to handle CI within a narrow conditionally unstable
environment better than HRRR solutions.

Further development with potential for eventual left splitting
updrafts that may intersect/merge with cells further north along
the north-south cu field may further increase coverage of these
localized higher rainfall amounts. As such, additional incidents
of flash flooding are considered possible through the evening into
early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ffrPkhX8sSDE1Tyc4R5ZbbLm1Yzru25_R8jindz79BQeILYOMBIZBuZ7iGSYR4J3gI9eYNnAcKdLGpd9rYXA1GuBI0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35121419 34851342 33551344 32531315 31991305
31981361 32201439 32451487 33701479 34901471

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 31 23:53:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 312353
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-010530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1162
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
752 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Northern UT...Southwest to South-Central
WY...Northwest CO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312355Z - 010530Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered slow moving thunderstorms capable of
.5-.75"/hr rates with some back-building/repeating potential for
spots .75-1.25" totals may result in localized flash flooding
through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...A very dynamic environment continues to unfold across
the Intermountain West, as compact closed shortwave continues to
slowly wobble northeast out of central NV into northern UT with
negative tilt trough sweeping through southern UT, interaction
with southern stream shortwave near the Four Corners, effectively
acting as a triple point system near the interface of the 'warm
conveyor belt' and upper-level jet structure, though main right
entrance region has been broadening across S ID into Northern WY
with sharp shortwave ridging as the jet quickly angles more west
to east across the Northern Plains. As a result a broad axis of
strong dPVA ascent accompanied by upper-level divergence across
much of UT into Western CO continues to support broad scale ascent
even with more limited/scattered pockets of remaining unstable
air.

Much of the cirrus canopy inhibited insolation across the Four
Corners today, but along the northern periphery of the cirrus were
some pockets of filtered insolation across N UT, SW WY into
north-central CO; MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across the area of
concern combined with the lift and continued strong low level
moisture flux into the region has started to see scattered pockets
of stronger convective initiation breaking through the cirrus
across N UT (near SLC), north of the Unita Range and further east
toward areas west of the North Park of CO. Deep layer moisture of
.75-1" with the strengthening west to east axis of moisture
convergence and pockets of vertical ascent allow for narrow core
convective cells to convert to .5-.75"/hr rates, with much of the
bursts coming in sub-hourly time steps. With strong southerly
low-level flow, back-building and therefore short-term repeating
is possible resulting in localized spots of .75-1.25" over 2-3hrs.

Much of the area has seen above average rainfall (per AHPS and
NASA SPoRT 0-40cm RSM ratios above average) combined with
naturally low FFG values (.75-1"/hr and <1.5"/3hrs) suggests
localized exceedance may be possible though late evening into the
overnight period. As such widely scattered incident or two of
flash flooding remains possible, especially over the next few
hours. However, loss of heating/instability will slowly diminish
the strongest rainfall rates, but the strong dynamic ascent may
maintain modest, broadening shield precip through the early
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5rS1WqML2mJlQS6Zbskg3HAjQsWrWldnOqzFxK3lb44QQAoajDI8PmE2wxC07bT0OLFPSaBjZNjR7ml6W1XzStbDudc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GJT...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41961089 41840974 41700812 41330670 40730610
39980614 39490719 39390879 39661041 39911165
40261247 40681290 41321281 41901223

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 00:25:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 010025
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-010600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1163
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Utah...Northwest Arizona...Ext
Southeast Nevada...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010030Z - 010600Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding risk likely to continue into early
overnight period as lingering cells track through areas already
affected with ongoing flooding. Additional 1-2" in spots as
convective lines still show some repeating potential in the near
term.

DISCUSSION...Current fading visible, 3.9um SWIR loops from GOES-E
and RADAR mosaic continue to show SW to NE bands of thunderstorms
across SW UT and far NW AZ tracking eastward under the influence
of the exiting compact shortwave and negative tilt trof currently
analyzed along the central NV/UT border. This places the
convection generally behind the strongest dPVA/forcing; however,
low level flow continues to respond out of the Lower Colorado
river Valley through SW UT toward the core of the height-falls
across central UT. Higher theta-E air continued to replenish the
mixed air with pool of remaining conditionally unstable air
centered along the corner of NV/AZ/UT with 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
though there is some building capping with loss of solar
heating... as noted with diminishing cu field. Still, the
15-20kts of flow from the unstable air intersecting with the
ongoing convection will support some back-building and perhaps
isolated new development along the convergent upstream edge
through the Grand Canyon region of northwest AZ into the Kaibab
Forest Plateau.

Given total Pwats remain in the 1.5" range, mostly fed below
700mb, efficient cells currently near 1.25-1.5" will slowly weaken
toward 1" and less with time and distance from remaining
unstable/moist air. Still, favorable WSW to ENE propagation/cell
motions will support possible repeating in the short-term while
also tracking through areas already heavily affected by earlier
round today as well as multiple rounds over the weekend. As such,
spots of additional 1-2" will likely result in a more widely
scattered reaggrivation of flash flooding across S UT and N AZ,
with some lower potential further north and east as the forcing
wave continues to exit the region.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_HZdeaYmjxgmfOrhXKWTY6MiUcbj0uHUSGkLx3Hmm7VF9zqowyyBh8A5g9aphqEvDTxwx_GWHgVgDTXCdzGou1whagc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39571205 39311059 38461044 37361079 36501160
35901260 35961397 36931503 37811509 38681398

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 09:52:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 010952
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-011550-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1164
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...southwestern LA to upper TX coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010950Z - 011550Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rain associated with T.S. Edouard will likely
begin to impact southwestern LA into the upper TX coast over the
next 3-6 hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, with isolated
values over 2 inches, are expected. Isolated flash to urban
flooding may occur as a result.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Edouard was located about 65 miles
southeast of Cameron, LA via the 09Z NHC advisory, moving toward
the west-northwest at 7 kt. Since 03Z, the infrared satellite
presentation from GOES East showed the compact tropical system
contained a majority of convection to the north and east of the
cyclone's center, likely due to an intrusion of drier air located
northwest of the system wrapping around into the south side of the
circulation. However, recent colder cloud tops have been noted
south of the center since 08Z with Edouard appearing healthier
compared to 6-9 hours earlier.

Given the 09Z NHC advisory forecast track/timing and discussion
indicating the likelihood for Edouard to strengthen as it
approaches the Gulf Coast, it seems probable that banding will
become better organized to the north of the center with low level
convergence aided by frictional convergence along the coastline.
In addition, should the system continue to become better
organized, convection near the eyewall may also become better
defined with the center of Edouard forecast by the 09Z NHC
advisory to be near the mouth of the Sabine River at 18Z. The
frequency of heavy rain bands is likely to increase from
southwestern LA into the upper TX coast through 16Z with hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, although localized potential will exist
for hourly rainfall values in excess of 2 inches as well. Should
these areas of heavy rain overlap with urban areas or other
locations of poor drainage, isolated flash flooding may result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9OWXuz3qXaihPG0god5mKW7dVhTi4z1TLXUwSblZAUgGijbjruayz4H5eY2koKt9M1ZnNeJQGQzxZyDzKptNNcVEIuA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30289408 30279292 30129217 29829170 29489144
29189171 29409270 29349379 29019506 29349563
29889565 30169512

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 14:30:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011430
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-012028-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1165
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1028 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Far Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southeast NY and
Western Long Island

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011428Z - 012028Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms with some
occasional cell-training will pose a concern for some isolated
areas of flash flooding going through the mid-afternoon hours.
This may include some urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling
convective tops associated with a corridor of locally heavy
showers and thunderstorms across far northeast PA and adjacent
areas of south-central to southeast NY. The activity is largely
being driven by a corridor of relatively stronger warm air
advection and moisture transport advancing across the northern
Mid-Atlantic region as a warm front attempts to lift off to the
northeast across the region.

Most of convection is somewhat elevated with MUCAPE values of near
1000 J/kg pooled along the front. PWs though are rather high with
values of 1.75 to 2.0 inches in place. The latest RAP analysis
along with VWP data indicates the nose of a 30 to 35+ kt westerly
low-level jet across northern PA which is suggesting some speed
convergence along with the advance of stronger isentropic ascent
to facilitate some of the recent convective trends. Additionally,
there is the southeast advance of a shortwave trough across New
England with nearby divergent flow aloft at least modestly
overlapping the front along with some of the low-level support.

Some fairly decent effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts is in
place and this kinematic environment coupled with the available
moisture and instability may yield some rainfall rates locally as
high as 1.5 inches/hour. The alignment of the convection with the
deeper layer flow suggests some cell-training concerns, and there
may be some highly localized swaths of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall
totals going through the early to mid-afternoon hours as the
overall convective threat shifts down to the southeast.

The latest models are struggling with the current activity, but
the environment along and just south of the warm front may tend to
become more supportive of convection over the next several hours
as boundary layer instability increases. FFG values are locally
rather low across northern NJ and areas close to New York City.
This coupled with the rainfall threat may support an isolated
threat of flash flooding and potentially some urban impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7UWJHpa7zEQpFiwmTN3-xZv8o5kWhf0RcKdAetpmjZK6RU9zdBAufnNOcsnQvmlt1L80Wfio_zJcgKu8gm_lf1337Nc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42167583 42067523 41757421 41167334 40777301
40527327 40547391 40867480 41207543 41647596
41947613

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 17:06:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011706
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-012305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1166
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Far Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011705Z - 012305Z

SUMMARY...T.S Edouard to make landfall this afternoon with urban
flash flooding becoming likely due to very heavy rainfall rates
and storm totals.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-IR satellite imagery along with radar
data shows the center of T.S. Edouard continuing to advance off to
northwest toward the Upper TX coast and far southwest LA. As of
17Z (12PM CDT), the center of Edouard was centered near 29.6N
93.5W or about 30 miles southeast of Port Arthur, TX. The storm
has been gaining some additional convective organization over the
last several hours with an expansion of colder convective tops
associated with a relatively small CDO. However, radar shows the
expansion of stronger convective banding especially around the
southwest flank of the circulation center, and this is where the
heaviest rainfall rates are currently occurring.

Edouard will be making a landfall somewhere near the TX/LA border
this afternoon, and this will bring inner core convection and
related banding into the Upper TX coast and portions of far
southwest LA. MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg and PWs of 2.25 to 2.5
inches will combine with strong low-level convergence and related
moisture transport to yield very heavy rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
inches/hour within at least the stronger convective bands near the
center. This will likely still tend to be around the southwest
flank of the circulation center at least for the next several
hours as the system makes landfall and then edges inland by later
today.

The latest NHC track coupled with the 12Z hires CAMs suggest the
heavy rainfall along the path of Edouard will tend to be east of
the Houston/Galveston area and much more concentrated close to the
greater Beaumont/Port Arthur vicinity. The rather slow propagation
of Edouard off to the northwest should favor very concentrated
areas of high-end rainfall totals. The latest HREF/REFS consensus
would suggest as much as 3 to 6 inches with isolated heavier
amounts close to 9 inches going through early this evening.

Despite dry antecedent conditions, the very high rainfall rates
and overall storm totals are likely to result in areas of flash
flooding, with a particular concern for potentially
significant/dangerous urban flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5vq-R9NPo8i5MOYH86Tb5Wy5SR1czq-tLagChQzohdLgCGP1pCthnmHEad5loJYGKTEOb-41r-68A8zUyR0LATbpETQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30769433 30329353 29619335 29309402 29489481
29949524 30659514

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 19:50:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011944
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-020130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1167
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Southern Utah...Northwest Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011945Z - 020130Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop across portions of Utah into north-northwest Arizona
through the evening bringing 1-2" over areas that remain saturated
from previous days rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Moist southwestern monsoonal airmass remains in place
across the region. RADAR mosaic and GOES-E continue to show
thunderstorms developing across the Utah/Arizona border and
tracking northeastward. GOES water vapor suite depicts broader
large scale closed low approaching northwest California coast,
well out in front is a potent shortwave moving into central
Nevada. Large scale DPVA is providing large scale ascent to
interact with remaining moist unstable air within the lower
Colorado Valley. Precipitable water values are 1.25-1.50, however
this is mostly below 700mb as CIRA LPW depicts dry air moving in
above 700mb helping to steepen lapse rates and increase
instability. High atmospheric moisture combined with strong
instability has risen 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE.

Increasing daytime heating and approaching forcing has already
destabilized the atmosphere, with a few thunderstorms already
breaking out across southern UT and northwest AZ. Solid southerly
confluence of 20 kts will continue to support upwind convergence
in the low levels to support backbuilding orientation of the
storms.

Storm motions should remain relatively slow, allowing for
efficient rainfall production of 1-1.5"/hr, over localized areas,
with rainfall totals of 1.5-2", with isolated 2+" possible. The
greatest flash-flooding potential will be across areas where
storms repeatedly track over the same locations over the last few
days, particularly near complex terrain, burn scars, slot canyons,
and dry washes. Isolated to widely scattered incidents of flash
flooding are possible through the evening.

Oudit

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_aLxaFxIdQE4wmJm36GJl6tkxx0sl9sGhvYgzfTqFixo3b6PjP7yKtCKrH2abzIsCixQY4pVGXWDS2gRW1wapgM39U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39731148 38381054 35781132 34681260 35191389
36961409 37701346 38271306 38861259

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 22:01:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 012200
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1168
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Much of Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Northern
Delaware...Far Northeast Maryland...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012200Z - 020330Z

SUMMARY...Increasing organized thunderstorms with favorable
orientation for repeating and capability of 1.75"/hr rates may
result in stripes of 2.5-3.5". Localized flash flooding is
considered possible.

DISCUSSION...21z surface analysis denotes a surface low in the
Lower Hudson Valley with a fairly well defined stationary front in
proximity to the NY/PA state line back toward eastern Lake Erie.
South of the front, hot/moist environment of low 90s over mid 70s
Tds supports a very unstable environment across much of PA with
3500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE. CIRA LPW denotes a pool of enhanced
moisture that over-topped the larger scale ridge has migrated out
of the Middle Great Lakes into OH/PA from sfc to 700mb, with some
additional mid to upper level moisture arriving across SE PA
resulting in a broad 1.75" total PWat throughout the state.
However, enhanced Atlantic moisture stream from the Delaware
Valley eastward adds a few more tenths to reach 2"+.

Wind profiles show most of the environment is solid
west-northwesterly or northwesterly through depth to support a
unidirectional steering flow to support the potential for
repeating cells. Forcing for initial development was going to be
the greatest factor toward overall coverage, but with some
strengthening of the surface flow and northerly winds sharpening
the surface front along the PA/NY line; scattered cells have
broken out across north-central to northeast PA. Flow aloft is
strong and with effective bulk shear to 40-50kts, organized
rotation to the cells will allow for further localized moisture
flux convergence enhancing rainfall rates/capability as the
updrafts/downdrafts broaden with time. This will allow for
1.5-1.75"/hr rates with an occasional uptick to 2" with best
supercell elements. Given the orientation of the frontal zone
and fairly unidirectional flow, there is good potential for
repeating cells as coverage increases. As a result stripes of
2.5-3.5" totals are possible. While FFG is 2-2.5"/hr across
central PA, it reduces across the Poconos and Delaware Valley to
less than 2"/hr, but those totals still may reach the 3hr FFG
values even through the middle of the state.

A bit less certain, but strengthening mid-level direct circulation
aloft is suggestive of stationary front across Long Island and off
of southern New England is forecast to sharpen and drop southwest
as a 'back-door' front this evening. This has yet to fully
manifest but as it is expected, this will further tighten
convergence across LI, NJ and direct cells southward into NE MD, N
DE, S NJ through early overnight period. Enhanced moisture and
mergers suggest additional coverage and intensity could increase
total and potential for flash flooding conditions across the
Mid-Atlantic Coastal region 03z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4-oxZJg6Z778Yi3ypATQTCVJDjGELwShECdFlGv7K3somiGGup_AIIxX5GBlrrrqS-rIDdQ2PEro7DQtui9AxXwyjoI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CLE...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41987999 41987920 41967854 41927657 41447534
41137446 40417394 39787401 39057442 38867514
39917701 40927905 41187959 41598020

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 22:44:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 012244
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-020445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1169
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
643 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Far Southwest Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012245Z - 020445Z

SUMMARY...T.S. Edouard. Additional 3-6" Totals along and west of
track likely to induced flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic shows T.S. Edouard continues to
strengthen even after landfall with better inner core structure as
well as the development of an outer-band on the eastern hemisphere
across SW LA. GOES-E 10.3um/Visible loops shows overshooting tops
to -75C near the center, with excellent southerly outflow channels
noted in the broadening cirrus canopy Inner core total PWat
values continue to be around 2.5-2.75" and with stronger eastern
and northern inner core winds providing some slight unbalanced WAA
flow increasing convergence along the western inner band where
rain rates of 3-3.5"/hr have been observed for the last few hours.
This is expected to continue for the next few hours as Edouard
wobble northwestward. This places NW Jefferson-Hardin-Polk-SE
Trinity county in greatest risk for an additional 3-6"+ swath,
likely to continue rapid inundation flash flooding.

While the circulation is small/compact and prone to disruption of
the convective cycle with any dry air entrainment, this does not
appear to be plausible for the next 4-6 hrs in this NW motion and
broader inflow regime off the northwest Gulf. However, flow along
the southern side, enhanced or funneled along the Upper TX coast
is helping to broaden the moat on the eastern side of the
circulation and an outer-band is becoming more focused across W
Calcasieu and W Cameron Parish. Broader directional convergence
along this band will support back-building and relative training
across this area with similar 2-3"/hr rates given the strength of
speed and directional convergence. The orientation of the band
relative to the storm's motion through the next 6 hours should
also help to back the band but keep it relatively stationary
likely to result in a secondary maxima of heavy rainfall totals
across those parishes. Spots of 3-5" are expected likely to
maintain flash flooding there as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9lfgtty5P-Uhtnxx2_Jsc7SsOgDMeWeZNpfDvJpLzuRssWA6GUG4HJEw1IIlOOyuE0u4YUaODOg5j4ITho7yhb6wIK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31189490 31159437 30839370 30489332 30059315
29739332 29689380 29569436 30049495 30459516
30879520

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 23:39:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 012339
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-020500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1170
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast SD...Northeast NEB...Northwest IA...Far
Southwest MN...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012340Z - 020500Z

SUMMARY...Expanding cluster of thunderstorms with history of
1"/30min & potential favorable orientation for repeating/training.
Spots of 2-3.5" due to repeating is possible, though high FFG
suggests flash flooding would be isolated/widely scattered and/or
urban in nature.

DISCUSSION...23z surface analysis shows a well defined stationary
front from east to west across N IA to just south of the SDak/NEB
border toward a weaker but strengthening surface low well out near
WY/SD/NEB corner. Weak southerly flow south of the boundary is
convergent to the broad easterly flow north of the boundary, with
further confluence across SW MN into SE SDak at this time. Deep
layer moisture is pooled along and north of the boundary with TPW
values of 1.75-2" resulting in a broad cu field extends along it
from central SDak into MN/N IA under the convective outflow and
broad cirrus shield in the mid to upper-level WAA regime. GOES-E
WV suite also denotes an effective triple point shortwave/vort
center over central SD with warm conveyor out of E NM across W KS
and central NEB toward an expanding convective cluster from Boyd
to Charles Mix county. TPW analysis shows this orthogonal
intersection of moisture streams with deep layer convergence axis
centered on the cluster itself.

South of the front upper 80s/low 90s over low to mid-70s Tds and
modest lapse rates, support a broad area of conditionally unstable
3500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE within the warm sector being advected
into the boundary. Continued inflow and a favorable right
entrance ascent pattern to a 70kt speed max over NE SDak, should
help for some upscale growth to the complex. Current RADAR
presentation per KDP suggests large hail remains in the cores of
the cells; however, a few backyard observations noted quick .5"/10
min and 1"/30 min rates as a stronger cell passed. So with
1.75-2"/hr rain rates and a favorable west to east orientation of
the frontal zone and already developed convective cores, some
repeating is probable and may result in a streak of 2-3" totals
with a spot of 3.5" not out of the question.

Hydrologically, the area has been very dry, so intense rates could
initially result in above average run-off, but overall saturation
depth could be needed with higher totals given the FFG values
remain very high. Within the area of concern, hourly FFG values
are mainly 2-2.5"+ while 3hr range toward 2.5-3.5". As such,
exceedance is likely to be isolated to wide spread, posing
possible low-end flash flooding or urban flooding concerns.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Dhix3-sH5Yu1Nam7s-6EqJQyg-UjWNXwTG2yUSJUq3I3YCO4MMJ1jg4KGjBs3k_fGzR8CBz4lioIUeUxrcBR-p94Is$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43869551 43289513 42819524 42549590 42439684
42339786 42379904 42939948 43439920 43659838
43809731

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 00:03:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020003
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-020445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1169...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Corrected for Concerning Line: Flash Flooding Likely

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Far Southwest Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012245Z - 020445Z

SUMMARY...T.S. Edouard. Additional 3-6" Totals along and west of
track likely to induced flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic shows T.S. Edouard continues to
strengthen even after landfall with better inner core structure as
well as the development of an outer-band on the eastern hemisphere
across SW LA. GOES-E 10.3um/Visible loops shows overshooting tops
to -75C near the center, with excellent southerly outflow channels
noted in the broadening cirrus canopy Inner core total PWat
values continue to be around 2.5-2.75" and with stronger eastern
and northern inner core winds providing some slight unbalanced WAA
flow increasing convergence along the western inner band where
rain rates of 3-3.5"/hr have been observed for the last few hours.
This is expected to continue for the next few hours as Edouard
wobble northwestward. This places NW Jefferson-Hardin-Polk-SE
Trinity county in greatest risk for an additional 3-6"+ swath,
likely to continue rapid inundation flash flooding.

While the circulation is small/compact and prone to disruption of
the convective cycle with any dry air entrainment, this does not
appear to be plausible for the next 4-6 hrs in this NW motion and
broader inflow regime off the northwest Gulf. However, flow along
the southern side, enhanced or funneled along the Upper TX coast
is helping to broaden the moat on the eastern side of the
circulation and an outer-band is becoming more focused across W
Calcasieu and W Cameron Parish. Broader directional convergence
along this band will support back-building and relative training
across this area with similar 2-3"/hr rates given the strength of
speed and directional convergence. The orientation of the band
relative to the storm's motion through the next 6 hours should
also help to back the band but keep it relatively stationary
likely to result in a secondary maxima of heavy rainfall totals
across those parishes. Spots of 3-5" are expected likely to
maintain flash flooding there as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!794KL2pwcBucIJIHI5nlSOLcOyTVvJE1241lmijr6SYYN9eVvdIB3bvuUzJgurMOSmLj_aXZdA_hZlctjTnn3GyT_4g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31189490 31159437 30839370 30489332 30059315
29739332 29689380 29569436 30049495 30459516
30879520

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 03:42:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020341
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-020700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1171
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1141 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Areas affected...southeastern PA into the DelMarVa Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020339Z - 020700Z

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated flash flooding will continue from
southeastern PA into the DelMarVa Peninsula through about 07Z.
Brief training of 1-2 inches in an hour and isolated totals near 3
inches may occur.

DISCUSSION...0315Z radar and infrared satellite imagery showed
that thunderstorms were continuing to develop across portions of
southeastern PA, near Harrisburg, just to the cool side of a
corresponding outflow boundary that extended from just south of
Georgetown, DE into the northern Chesapeake Bay and northwestward
to near State College, PA. SPC mesoanalysis data from 03Z showed
roughly 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in place along and within about
100 miles of the outflow boundary, although MLCIN was increasing
with surface cooling post sunset. PW values were also notable at
2.0 to 2.2 inches, supportive of high short term rainfall of 0.5
to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes.

Given a similar orientation of the slower moving portion of the
outflow boundary across southeastern PA into the DelMarVa
Peninsula to the mean northwesterly steering flow, isolated
potential for training will remain for a couple of more hours due
to the lingering instability. Within any axes of training, hourly
rainfall rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be possible with
isolated totals up to 3 inches for a reasonable worst-case
scenario. This may translate into isolated flash flooding.
However, increasing inhibition will be a limiting factor for
continued heavy rainfall.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6Q7QnWRZ1s4ftmMmvKqc8SodhYn4M-6YEuMyD2jYH5UKRiKkDvJMpcNRQmfM4XFP29ZlvbAF3TDHD1Rbz6sfVNW25-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40717727 40637687 40157627 39497543 38937501
38387493 38037504 37747532 37767575 38317631
38687653 39197662 39907728 40477765

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 05:14:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020514
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-020930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...southeastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020512Z - 020930Z

SUMMARY...Peak hourly rainfall totals of 2 to 3+ inches are
expected to maintain focused areas of flash flooding along the
track of T.D. Edouard across The Piney Woods region of TX. In
addition, some potential will exist for nocturnal banding to setup
to the south of the circulation, which could also produce high
rain rates and flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...At 05Z, T.D. Edouard was located about 15 miles
southeast of Livingston, TX, moving toward the northwest near 7
kt. Infrared satellite imagery showed a fairly symmetric CDO with
occasional bursts of colder cloud tops, while banding attempted to
organize southeast of the circulation near the Sabine River. Radar
imagery showed a compact presentation with organized spiral
banding extending 10-20 miles outward from the center in all
directions. Over the past 3 hours, radar imagery showed the
heaviest rain had focused to the north of the center, as the
cyclone continues a steady track toward the northwest.

Expectations are for the heaviest rain rates and additional
rainfall totals over the next 4-5 hours to occur just north and
east of the storm track. This would include Polk and Trinity
counties where additional rainfall through 10Z could amount to 3
to 6 inches (locally higher possible).

South of the circulation, the environment remained highly
conducive to heavy rain with precipitable water values ranging
from 2.2 to 2.6 inches and MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg nosing
northward from the Gulf into southeastern TX, just west of the
Sabine River (per SPC mesoanalysis data). The gradient of
instability extended southwestward toward Galveston Bay. A few of
the 00Z hires models have hinted at the possibility of banding
(already present in southeastern TX over Chambers, Jefferson,
Orange and Newton counties), to become better organized and
exhibit slow movement over the next few hours. The environment
will support 15-minute rainfall over 1 inch and the potential for
localized flash flooding south of the circulation (as well as near
the depression's track).

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8OTcb9D0UK_1-bqZ8WnEUqNbOt6EU1iRPJCMLH6RJOOBGAZR-ZbNFhdEki38gYrXuxwzNUMgZRWj2eCyyiYbC_CuUTQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31649459 31239395 30719369 30179367 29719404
29569453 29649507 29899548 30379578 30889588
31349571 31629528

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 09:46:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020945
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-021430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1173
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
544 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...southeastern TX into southwestern/western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020943Z - 021430Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding, some areas locally significant, is
expected to occur due to heavy rainfall associated with T.D.
Edouard this morning across portions of southeastern TX. Slow
northwestward movement of the system will be accompanied by peak
hourly rainfall totals of 2 to 3+ inches.

DISCUSSION...At 09Z, T.D. Edouard was located about 7 miles
northwest of Livingston, TX, moving toward the northwest near 4
kt, a bit slower than 6-12 hours ago. There have been two notable
areas of heavy rain over the past 3 hours, containing areas of
active flash flooding. First, associated with the eastern
"eyewall" of Edouard, were 3-hour rainfall estimates (via MRMS) of
5-7 inches, ending at 09Z, located 10-15 miles east of Livingston
in Polk County. Second, was associated with a slow moving curved
band of heavy rain that has impacted Liberty to Hardin and Tyler
counties with 3-hour rainfall estimates (via MRMS) of 4 to 6
inches. Both of these regions have contained hourly rainfall of 2
to locally over 3 inches per area gauge data.

Edouard continues to appear healthy on infrared satellite imagery
with some of the coldest cloud tops associated with the slow
moving band of heavy rainfall located 40-50 miles southeast of the
center of circulation. As Edouard maintains an average
northwestward motion this morning near 4-5 kt, heavy rain near the
inner core of the system and tied to the convergent inflow band(s)
to the southeast of the center may result in locally significant
flash flood impacts due to hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches
(locally higher). It is unclear how long the curved inflow band(s)
will sustain over its current location relative to the system
center, with at least some disruption to band organization
possible after sunrise as boundary layer heating commences. Some
short term hires models indicate dissipation of the inflow band(s)
to the south/southeast in favor of reformation of a rainband near
the Sabine River by 15Z or so. While these specific details remain
unclear at this point, there remains a heightened risk of flash
flooding across southeastern TX, with locally significant impacts
possible through 14Z-15Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VYVFXriL4LwqqxeqHlfXaJEhKhkAs-O24dmN3OuzHZZwqEKzV5lGT3MIXesRfQ5FnDozC0QgKfqS_RSDqFaMlNMQ9k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31979427 31629361 31139329 30429331 29959354
29749398 29869501 30409576 30979601 31539582
31849528

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 11:19:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 021119
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-021500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1174
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
718 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Northwest PA...Southwest NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021118Z - 021500Z

SUMMARY...A complex of thunderstorms dropping southeastward from
far southern Ontario and crossing Lake Erie will cross into
northwest PA and far southwest NY this morning. Isolated areas of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
cold-topped MCS crossing Lake Erie and advancing southeastward
toward northwest PA and southwest NY. The activity is associated
with a small-scale vort center rounding the top side of the OH
Valley subtropical ridge axis while also interacting with the nose
of a 30+ kt westerly low-level jet across the broader Lower Great
Lakes region.

Moderate to strong instability with MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000
J/kg and a corridor of 250 mb jet divergence around the northeast
flank of the ridge will likely work in tandem with the warm air
advection pattern over the next few hours to sustain the
convective threat at least in the short-term. Given the
instability along with PWs near 1.75 inches, the rainfall rates
will be capable of reaching 1.5 inches/hour.

Some localized repeating cell-activity with the arrival of these
storms into northwest PA and southwest NY may result in some
spotty 1.5 to 2.5 inch totals over the next few hours. FFGs across
these areas are fairly low, and therefore a few isolated areas of
flash flooding will be possible. The low-level jet may weaken a
bit by later this morning to promote a weakening trend in the
convection, but these trends will be closely monitored for
downstream areas of central and northern PA, and southern NY.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Fa5w7S_sD8AhDiR4_JurlZiobt_IgjDDT-k26cRJQSmgn1S4w0QvYC_0CxfcNkOMrNKsbIz_rSLQmzCfOlV9U-geHY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42887992 42637843 42117750 41497740 41017778
40917851 41097935 41358019 41898094 42258102
42718077

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 16:36:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 021456
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-022055-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Texas...Far Western Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021455Z - 022055Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding, some significant to extreme, is expected
to continue due to heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Edouard
across eastern Texas. Lesser impacts are possible across far
western Louisiana. A slow north-northwest storm motion and
training tropical rainbands with hourly rainfall totals of 3+
inches will support this over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The circulation of Edouard continues to look
well-defined on radar with rainbands wrapping around the southern
and eastern side of the circulation as it slowly moves northward
across eastern Texas this morning. IR satellite imagery shows the
maintenance of cold convective cloud tops with temperatures as low
as -65 C, suggesting the maintenance of intense updrafts with the
system and supporting the extreme rainfall rates exceeding locally
3+ inches/hour.

A particularly intense and persistent rainband was in place this
morning across Liberty, Hardin, and Tyler Counties. Rainfall
reports of 10 to 18+ inches of rain have been reported in the area
with reports of extreme flash flooding, inclusive of one Flash
Flood Emergency issuance. Additionally, persistent heavy rainfall
associated with Edouard's inner core and related CDO has been
noted as well with high rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ inches/hour.

The environment around Edouard continues to support heavy to
torrential rainfall with southerly moisture transport from the
Gulf leading to CAPE of 1000-2000+ J/Kg and a surrounding bubble
of anomalous moisture as indicated by PWATS in the 2.0-2.5 inch
range. This continued inflow of energy from the Gulf will continue
to foster development and the maintenance of stronger convection
and some organized banding potential.

Edouard will continue to move slowly north-northwestward across
eastern Texas. The slow storm movement and the radar estimated 3+
inch rainfall rates will maintain the potential for significant
rainfall accumulations and higher-end flash flooding impacts. An
additional 3 to 6 inches or rain with localized 8 inch amounts is
forecast going through 21Z (4PM CDT).

The highest flash flood impacts are expected to be across Liberty,
Hardin, and Tyler Counties where rain continues to fall over
flooded areas. However, some northward expansion of higher end
flooding impacts into downstream counties of Angelina and Saint
Augustine are expected as the heavy rainbands drift northward.

Wilder

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Pao3p7N5a4NVwjZXHpbWlCwyjXVYGO9XLBGG7vmaxV6pbVDanwvZWoMYZGdLTmF6rRKWrdQ_NvRjeaAUuYSfvF9oIQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32289502 32239418 31949371 31399337 30219327
29599372 29279487 29659557 30519588 31269612
31869586

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 21:06:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 022106
FFGMPD
TXZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1176
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...East-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022102Z - 030100Z

SUMMARY...The heavy to extreme rainfall on the southern side of
Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to affect portions of
east-central Texas through 8 pm local time, with some instances of
major flooding likely across areas that have already received
torrential downpours today.

DISCUSSION...The circulation of T.D. Edouard remains well intact
based on recent Doppler radar and surface observations. The vast
majority of heavy rainfall associated with this will be in the
southern semicircle of the circulation, most notably with
persistent inflow feeder bands that are showing repeated
convective training. This is likely to continue through 8 pm with
very slow movement of the circulation to the north, and
unidirectional flow in the low to mid levels. Rainfall rates
within these bands have exceeded three inches per hour at times,
and this has led to extensive flooding across the Piney Woods
region.

The latest CAM guidance suite is suggesting the potential for some
additional 3-6 inch totals over the next 4 hours across southern
and eastern portions of the outlook area. Based on current radar
trends, the core of heaviest rainfall this evening will likely be
across portions of San Jaci, Polk, Trinity, and northern Liberty
counties where the inflow band is expected to be the most
persistent, and major flooding is likely for these areas. The CAMs
may be a little overdone with near term rainfall closer to the
main circulation center, with rainfall totals closer to 1-3 inches
through 8 pm. The WoFS seems to have a better depiction based on
ongoing radar trends with the heaviest rainfall away from the
circulation center and mainly associated with the inflow bands to
the south.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ZSaMCKE6Kyn844Q1n2LV_BC2APKldXLTIHBj9sFgs1cySt_fRKCh5QcfqCls2na006NjP031J-SZkg_1r2MN4NO5MA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32029461 31859425 31389405 30989406 30689414
30419435 30179473 30139525 30229568 30559606
30749617 30999621 31199618 31449605 31629585
31729565 31919530 32009495

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 22:39:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 022239
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
637 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Western NY...West-Central PA...Eastern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022237Z - 030400Z

Summary...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected this evening. High rainfall rates in combination with
relatively saturated soils from earlier rainfall may lead to some
instances of flooding through midnight local time.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and satellite imagery
indicate a recent increase in heavy convection across portions of
western PA and into western New York. A more organized line of
strong thunderstorms is approaching from Ontario and is forecast
to reach northwestern New York by 8 pm. Training convective
elements have been noted within this line of storms with rates in
excess of an inch per hour, and the convection ahead of the line
is serving to increase soil moisture and thus make the region more
susceptible to flooding.

Recent surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary stretched from north to south across the outlook area,
marking the delineation of a strong mixed layer CAPE gradient and
some weak surface wind convergence. There is also some modest
right entrance upper level jet dynamics at work ahead of the
synoptic scale cold front to the west, thus aiding broader scale
ascent across the region.

The latest CAMS have a relatively strong signal for some QPF
swaths on the order of 2 to 4 inches from west-central PA into
central NY through the evening hours. In addition, both HREF and
RRFS both have decent probabilities of 3 and 6-hourly flash flood
guidance exceedance because of the recent heavy rainfall earlier
today. Therefore, some instances of flooding will be possible
through midnight local time.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9gOmxjsBaR6rtBAVSdbBXst5GrugY6MPLv67MoRB4y9uXzAhkL4-l3E50YDokIlTC-Z550Rrjvgx4PVDaIiwEnceIVU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43687634 43617586 43437541 43007497 42567478
42007492 41367607 40437608 39927633 39737724
39717829 39857886 40247968 41108094 41888075
42617928 43317910 43437815 43467811 43487756
43557716 43667687

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 00:57:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 030057
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-030600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1178
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...East-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030055Z - 030600Z

SUMMARY...The very heavy rainfall on the southern side of Tropical
Depression Edouard will continue to affect portions of
east-central Texas through 1 am local time, with major flooding
expected across areas that have already received torrential
downpours over the past 24 hours.

DISCUSSION...The circulation of T.D. Edouard remains well intact
based on recent Doppler radar and surface observations. The vast
majority of heavy rainfall associated with this will be with the
southern inflow band that is currently situated about 50 miles
north of the Interstate 10 corridor. This is likely to continue
through 1 am with very slow movement of the circulation to the
north, with some of these heavier cells moving over areas that
have already received in excess of a foot of rainfall with this
event. Rainfall rates within these bands have exceeded three
inches per hour at times, and this has led to extensive flooding
across the Piney Woods region with numerous road closures.

There is some disparity in the latest CAM guidance with the
expected QPF over the next several hours. The ARW, HRRR, Gem
Regional, and the global model guidance indicates a pronounced
secondary maxima of heavy rainfall close to the actual center of
the depression later tonight. However, the RRFS and recent WoFS
runs seem to have a better depiction based on current radar trends
with the heaviest rainfall well away from the circulation center
and mainly associated with the inflow bands to the south, and
moderate rainfall closer to the center.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-VbGt4xP1GhH6tcDuuTJg4qWM_Bs6q69xaFFRPn1EZJRe5yeWpmCNb4fgHY9aURxzyqRnLvTvb4Q4eWr5z5e6otogXc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32709481 32429409 31939366 31389355 30549362
30059407 29879483 29819537 29839607 29889681
30039730 30289745 30639726 30789693 30759655
30739593 30819563 30989543 31179532 31429534
31719558 32009588 32469567

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 03:49:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 030345
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-030900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Areas affected...Pennsylvania...Far Southwest New York...Northern
& Western New Jersey...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030345Z - 030900Z

SUMMARY...Training cells continuing to pose localized flash
flooding risk for the next few hours. Hourly rates of 1.5-2"
should reduce with time and stripes of additional 2-3" totals may
result in new incidents of flash flooding or prolong/reaggrivate
ongoing areas.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave crossing S NY/N PA current is at the far
southeast edge of the main longwave trough that dominates much of
eastern Canada and is followed by a slight tightening of the mid
to upper level west-northwesterly flow helping to promote a
favorable training/repeating environment through the remainder of
the night. Regional RADAR mosaic notes the wave well with arched
leading convective line across the Catskills into the Poconos
starting to wane a bit due to limited remaining unstable air
across the region. However, 10.3um EIR and RADAR shows the
trailing line across the Southern Poconos as well as a broader
cluster south across Union to Clinton county that remain oriented
to the mean steering flow prolong residency of moderate to heavy
rainfall. Additionally, VWP shows surface to 925mb southwesterly
flow fairly orthogonal to the convective line but has rapidly
veered more westerly much like flow upstream for the remaining
clusters across Lake Erie into NW PA/SW NY.

RAP analysis shows remaining uncapped/weakly capped region of
MLCAPE resides across SW PA into central PA but the window appears
to be closing over the next few hours as capping builds and flow
further veers parallel to the active convective cores. Still, a
few hours of 20-30kts of 1.75-2" total PWAT advection should
support rates of 1.5-2"/hr and given length of the clusters could
be long enough even with strong steering flow to result in WNW to
ESE streaks of additional 2-3" totals. Broad areas of remaining
100-300 cfs/sqmi noted in MRMS FLASH could still intersected and
reaggravate flash flooding or like the leading cluster produce
200-500 cfs/sqmi to induce new incidents of flash flooding through
SE PA.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8wAZDcVk35wMTODWvXhqRAXB3aH7AiC6I7goJR8rDHjPbpS818jSzBYRU_uYIRfH8C-Lr_NFJ-xwa1g_KcPGdVUo4Jw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...OKX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42527926 42207706 41657511 40927413 39967472
39747615 40097782 40467864 40877935 41458018
42018034

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 05:56:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 030556
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1180
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...North Texas to Western Piney Woods of Eastern
Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030600Z - 031130Z

SUMMARY...T.D. Edouard. Small remaining clusters still capable of
2-3"/hr rates and localized 3-5" totals, but much more focused and
scattered than earlier today. Localized flash flooding remains
possible through early morning.

DISCUSSION...05z surface analysis suggests the surface low has
fully opened into a broader cyclonic flow with no northerly flow
instead shifting more east to west across north Texas into the Big
Country. However, VWP along with 3.9 SWIR suggests a closed wave
remains between 850-700mb in the vicinity of S Kaufman county
still sliding west-northwest toward Dallas-Fort Worth Metro;
though with an elongation toward the southeast and confluent flow
still remaining across East Texas, while a surge of Western Gulf
low-level moisture can be seen in SWIR as well as increase in
surface Tds into the mid to upper 70s across SE TX.

As such, a pool of unstable air remains across the southeast
quadrant of the remaining circulation and with MLCAPE nose of 1000
J/kg trying to reach Trinity and Angelina counties with slow
steady increase toward early morning. RAP analysis combined with
the VWP also suggests solid 850-700mb deep moisture convergence
from the center to the southeast and the approaching Gulf moisture
surge. CIRA Layer Vapor Transport (LVT) shows 60 to 70 kg/m/s
flux to the area with 2.25-2.4" total PWat it the area. While
CAPE is still limited to about 500-750 J/kg currently, the
convergence suggests a few smaller core updrafts are likely to
cycle over the coming hours; similar to the current RADAR/10.3um
EIR trends of small updrafts across E Henderson to N Trinity/S
Cherokee county. Rates of 2-2.5" are possible with occasional
uptick to 3"/hr still possible (HREF 20-25% for 3"/hr in Henderson
to Trinity county).

The convergence axis is not expected to shift very much, so spotty
totals of 3-5" remain possible though if near zero shift of the
axis occurs, this could locally be higher, but confidence in that
precision is, of course, low but not impossible. Flash flooding
is considered possible as the main area of concern is generally
north or on the northeastern fringe of the area most affected by
extreme rainfall today. However, any small deviation to the
southeast into Polk/Angelina county would certainly result in
reaggrivation of flash flooding given FFG reduced to below 1-1.5"
for any time period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6pVfAiUcUkw4N0ZuqJrLe8qS59lTJlcMt1wFpkqb_QUXWISUU4dYdNGjzOazOPS2HLTLe-tbUPVUdQrPjP4gxwMfTa4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33009609 32839538 32479491 31969447 31329440
30999480 31029520 31549605 32249658 32779662

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 11:50:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031150
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
749 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031149Z - 031745Z

SUMMARY...Additional heavy rainfall associated with the remnants
of Edouard will continue to impact areas of eastern TX through
midday. Areas of flash flooding will be likely over the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite
imagery shows the mid-level vort center associated with Edouard's
remnants gradually drifting north-northwestward across eastern TX
and toward the Red River Valley of the South. Relatively
shallow/warm-topped convection is noted around the southern and
eastern flanks of the vort center, and this is being aided by the
convergent nose of a very moist and rather unstable 30 kt
low-level jet.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are noted around the southern
flank of the vort center, and the PWs remain quite high with
values near 2.25 inches. This coupled with the rather shallow
warm-topped nature of the convection should favor extremely
efficient rainfall processes for high rainfall rates capable of
reaching 2.5 inches/hour.

The latest hires CAMs support some additional cell-training
concerns and slow cell-motions that will foster some additional
localized 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals going through midday. FFG
values are higher farther north in closer proximity to the vort
center, but with such high rainfall rates and the aforementioned
cell-training concerns, there will be a general likelihood for
more areas of flash flooding over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5wNlTM64EIVOAeJTrKxPPn2Uu0hPMUoGrx1Dx6375snxn4eq23sGq09LGQNAmIzZ3sFP2fDjire-Ksk6hqNCV9g7rRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33339592 32869491 32029444 30889430 30069464
29759555 29989618 30559666 31029694 31589720
32249732 33059694

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 12:34:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031233
FFGMPD
NDZ000-031800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Northern ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031232Z - 031800Z

SUMMARY...A couple of clusters of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms with some localized cell-training concerns may
maintain a threat for isolated flash flooding across areas of
northern ND.

DISCUSSION...An ejecting shortwave trough across the far northern
Plains coupled with deeper layer warm air advection and the nose
of elevated instability well ahead of a frontal system will
continue to fosters at least a couple of clusters of heavy showers
and thunderstorms across mainly areas of northern ND going through
early this afternoon.

MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg along with PWs of 1.3 to 1.4
inches will help facilitate rainfall rates as high as 1.5 to 2
inches/hour with the stronger storms. There is a belt of fairly
strong shear dropping east-southeast across central and northern
ND with effective bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts. This coupled
with the upper-level jet dynamics and warm air advection should
help maintain the overall convective footprint/organization going
through at least midday, with a downstream advance of convection
expected across much of northern ND.

Some localized cell-training will continue to be possible, and
this may foster some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals. This
may foster some FFG exceedance and concerns for isolated areas of
flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-sNDCb5X3x7XepHP57fWWKJtEUNcvWpYrX32fZdll3msLU8v19-2svgNXESBHYKpPBzr7lxG7xiICU0MbbkFvyRAvzo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48979801 48539766 48099889 47730087 47840176
48280196 48630140 48959999

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 15:19:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031519
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-WIZ000-032115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern WI...Portions of Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031517Z - 032115Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
locally high rainfall rates may drive some uptick in the threat
for mainly isolated and urban areas of flash flooding over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery and radar data shows some
broadening of the convective footprint across areas of the
Midwest, including areas of central and eastern WI through
portions of Lower MI. Cooling cloud top temperatures are noted as
a shortwave impulse begins to round the top side of subtropical
ridge over the OH Valley.

This shortwave energy will be increasing the warm advection
pattern across the region while interacting with a well-defined
and quasi-stationary synoptic front. Additionally, a strengthening
instability gradient is expected over the next several hours with
the diurnal heating cycle, and this will further help facilitate
an expanding axis of convection in close proximity to the front
and in an elevated fashion to the northeast of it.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are noted in close proximity to
the axis of ongoing elevated convection, and propagation vectors
suggest much of the convection should translate down to the
east-southeast going through the early to mid-afternoon hours.
Some cell-training concerns will be possible in time, especially
across Lower MI as the activity over central and eastern WI
advances downstream and expands in coverage.

Rainfall rates are expected to be as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger storms, and the cell-training concerns will
support potential for highly localized swaths of 2 to 4 inches.
Some 12Z CAM solutions suggest this potential, but overall the FFG
exceedance probabilities are quite modest given the antecedent
conditions which are generally rather dry for most of the area.

Therefore, the expectation is that there may be enough rainfall to
foster a highly isolated and mainly urban flash flooding threat
over the next several hours as these showers and thunderstorms
advance off to the east-southeast.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!54ZVDO6iuq6ChySFsS2payVkuhAL3JQB8kFNIr5c0JdcU32jEiVegIY1m24PiI1Rg3568pQfmF8ZscKA6zzLuj10bus$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...CLE...DTX...GRB...GRR...IWX...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45428817 45218634 44398409 43558274 42518225
41698284 41768457 42288690 42968849 43738930
44838920

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 17:07:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031707
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-032305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1184
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TX...Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031705Z - 032305Z

SUMMARY...Additional scattered areas of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms associated with the tropical remnants of Edouard
will continue to impact areas of eastern TX and also some parts of
southwest LA through late this afternoon. Scattered additional
areas of flash flooding will remain possible.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery along
with radar shows generally broken and disorganized areas of
showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact portions of eastern
TX, with some recent convection seen developing in a weakly banded
fashion near the TX/LA border and adjacent areas of southwest LA.

Cloud top temperatures are generally warming near the core of what
is left of any central convection associated with Edouard's
mid-level vort energy which is becoming increasingly stretched
from near the Red River Valley of the South down across eastern
TX. Instability across areas of eastern TX are also rather modest
due to cloud cover, a general weakening of the earlier low-level
jet energy, and the overall process of convective overturning.

However, around the periphery of the cloud cover and remaining
active convection, some stronger instability gradients are setting
up due to the differential heating gradients. These gradients are
likely to facilitate new convective development this afternoon
which will include areas of southeast TX and southwest LA, and
also areas farther west back into the TX Triangle region.

MUCAPE values along some of these gradients are on the order of
1500 to 2500 J/kg. This coupled with the high PW environment
(values locally around 2.25 inches) will continue to support some
potential for rainfall rates to reach as high as 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour.

The latest 12Z HREF/REFS consensus, HRRR guidance, and the
experimental WoFS suggest much less convective organization to the
heavy rainfall threat going through this afternoon hours as
Edouard's energy continues to lose its identity. However,
sufficient redevelopment of convection is expected this afternoon
such that some additional totals of 2 to 4+ inches will be
possible. This will promote a threat for additional scattered
areas of flash flooding, and especially if any of these rains can
overlap with areas that saw extremely heavy rain over the last 48
hours in southeast TX.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4S2Z1i0qG4r9oIQxFFbcywDrCEi3GaCSn5xQ1QBzM1JigyokJi7mibL8GdM-rkDodn046Pg9x7RHqoalL3ND1bLLlb0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32539604 31899539 31649486 31519423 31259329
30729257 30159220 29509222 29499309 29389424
28829513 28489570 28699656 29789706 30239783
30849837 31899805 32519711

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 18:08:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031807
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-040005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1185
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast AZ & western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031805Z - 040005Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and
increase in coverage over the next several hours. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" could lead to widely scattered to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Skies are mostly sunny across much of the region,
which some cumuli developing within a moist airmass. Moisture
across southern AZ has been helped by Hurricane Marie to the
southwest of Baja California. ML CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg exists
across portions of AZ, while a broader area of MU CAPE in spots
beyond 2000 J/kg exists across the southeast half of AZ and
southwest NM. Effective bulk shear is approaching 25 kts.
Difluence aloft is sponsored by an upper level shortwave moving
into southern NV. The mid-level capping inversion is weak at 700
hPa temperatures are generally 12C or cooler.

The guidance shows an uptick in coverage and amounts across
portions of the southeast half of AZ and western NM. With the
upper disturbance entering NV, effective bulk shear could also
increase somewhat. Given the ingredients in place, hourly amounts
to 2" are possible where cells stall/backbuild, have short periods
of training, or merge. This would be problematic in urban areas,
burn scars, slot/box canyons, dry washes/arroyos. Occurrences of
flash flooding are expected to be widely scattered to scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!72SvLaH38-UTxjUW6BbSgpJwKsict8eUDPEAS9_ZBYDy8t07dHEuazrrrLOTkpjNIYysMxJ3Oki6Cua-2P9amUfN6Dw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36850750 34550664 31310740 31160930 31621251
33151140 34821118

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 18:18:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031817
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-040015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Northeast ND...Northern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031816Z - 040015Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be advancing across
portions of northeast ND and northern MN going through the
mid-afternoon hours. Locally high rainfall rates and some
occasional cell-training concerns will support a threat for
isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...An ejecting shortwave trough continues to support a
long-lived MCS that is moving into northeast ND. GOES-E IR
satellite imagery still shows a sustainable corridor of cold
convective tops advancing downstream, and the combination of
shortwave dynamics along with proximity of a strong elevated
instability gradient and broader warm air advection should tend to
sustain the ongoing convective mass going through the afternoon
hours.

MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg along with PWs of 1.5 to 1.7
inches will work in tandem with rather strong kinematics (40 to
50+ kts) to favor convective organization and some rainfall rates
capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger
convective cores.

Some localized cell-training will continue to be possible given
alignment of the activity with the deeper layer steering flow, and
this may foster some additional localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals as the convection impacts northeast ND and adjacent
downstream areas of northern MN. A consensus of the 12Z HREF/REFS
guidance does generally support this. Some isolated and mainly
urban flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9hp6pEBX6gmgaVnwnXa0pk9BM19GaNDv7kvfDyILCiwD0nwS98g_68oWbt5WC1-xPu_6Bo2s9lZW3uEuK2NdK0uB7yk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48989677 48889545 48569415 47949287 47299253
46689287 46449415 46669587 47109739 47749857
48279905 48679886 48939802

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 18:57:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031856
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-040053-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1187
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...in and near eastern OH, western PA, & northern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031853Z - 040053Z

Summary...Local convective growth along with incoming thunderstorm
activity arriving from southern MI/Lake Erie could lead to hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4". Occurrences of
flash flooding could be widely scattered through 01z.

Discussion...An outflow boundary from earlier convection is
helping to erode CIN across northern WV, central OH, and northwest
VA sparking some new convective growth. Thunderstorms upstream
across the southern portion of MI's Mitt and Lake Erie are moving
towards northeast OH. Precipitable water values are 1.5-2". ML
CAPE is 2000-3000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 35-45 kts, which
should organize convection.

The mesoscale guidance suggests that locally grown convection
along with upstream convection could merge into a complex that
grows upscale later this afternoon. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
with local totals to 4" are possible where the organized
thunderstorm complex tracks. These amounts would exceed the three
hourly flash flood guidance, which are modest, roughly in the 2"/3
hour range. Occurrences of flash flooding due to mesocyclone
formation, cell training, and cell mergers should be widely
scattered through 01z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5_lw0naz2-1ROfVHR5woVDqcuxlUCMwAkM3TZJwUyPyuFKdNbee7a0GlvobRSZjIKLGCX-YLelh_uGoMifTPEd6tP_k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42398167 41107915 39947834 38067863 39048139
40088266 41578348 42308280

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 23:06:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032306
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-040504-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
705 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast AZ & western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032304Z - 040504Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms capable of flash flooding are
possible through 05z, particularly near the southern AZ/NM border.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" could lead to widely scattered
occurrences of flash flooding into tonight.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have grown in coverage
across western NM and southeast AZ this afternoon within a region
of 700 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 1.75-2" in
the lower deserts and closer to an inch at elevation. ML CAPE is
broadly 500-1500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of 25 kts lies near
the NM/AZ border which has led to some level of organization.

The guidance suggests that cell coverage is about to peak for the
day, with activity across southeast AZ most likely to hang on
towards 05z with thunderstorms showing some eastward drift into
southwest NM with time. Given the ingredients in place and for as
long as cell coverage is sufficient, hourly amounts to 2" are
possible where cells stall/backbuild, have short periods of
training, or merge. This would be problematic in urban areas,
burn scars, slot/box canyons, dry washes/arroyos. Occurrences of
flash flooding are expected to be widely scattered in general, but
slowly drop off with time into tonight/towards 05z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4co6W51dw4W4Y4jGesMAcm6rg2902uePn4fqfoOBO7wtV2-kiN8ujXImU0KOTrjVsP13PVHhYv6KWI_BaDYOvUfL5Oc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37160731 37130616 35630597 33390625 31180763
30961145 31821287 34251130 36040935

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 23:24:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032323
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-040322-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...western NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032322Z - 040322Z

Summary...A training band is attempting to set up near Buffalo.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are trying to connect/train
in a linear orientation very near Buffalo NY not far from a
moisture and instability gradient. Precipitable water values of
~1.75" lie here. Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts. ML CAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg exists in the area.

There is a signal in the guidance for a 3-4 hour heavy rain
possibility in this region, which appears to be beginning. Hourly
rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible in places
that manage to get a couple hours of training or where
mesocyclones manage to form. Flash flood guidance values are on
the low end due to recent rains, so flash flooding is considered
possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!64d0Z6F0CYa2p6j73OnTwnKsd9HDz9CSBewdv6FZiVxAdpGCnhHlNywhz6q0KJigx8w3aRYtAP4agGDZPfX7y0aWYJM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43297871 43047683 42627549 41917505 41857641
43107976

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 23:57:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032357
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-040555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1190
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...in and near WV & portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032355Z - 040555Z

Summary...A couple rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding in and around WV & portions of the Mid-Atlantic States
over the next several hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
additional local totals to 4" are possible through at least 05z.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have at times tried to
align across southwest PA as of late, with the initial convection
carving a new instability gradient across the region for
convection back across far eastern OH to follow. Precipitable
water values are approaching 2". Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts.
With CIN beginning to develop, MU CAPE is ~3000 J/kg.

MUCIN that developed in the wake of morning convection across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic States has been stubborn/persistent
today and appeared to have set up a relative wall that organized
convection has had trouble passing. This is seen in the 18z HREF
guidance, though the 12z REFS shows a different evolution
entirely. A zone of 850 hPa confluence is forecast to shift south
to the Nation's Capital over the next several hours, which could
guidance any remaining activity in that direction. While the 12z
REFS is missing the boat on the heavy rainfall in western NY at
the present time, a mesocyclone in southwest PA is attempting to
break through the MUCIN wall and edge towards the Mason-Dixon
Line. A compromise of sorts was used to account for the above.
Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local totals to 4" are
possible for as long as organized convection can persist, another
concept which the mesoscale guidance cannot agree. Have used a
06z horizon which is closer to the 18z HREF timing of convective
waning. There is more uncertainty than usual in this
forecast/future convective expectations.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8CQv8oBMq0gUR0DAneyn7eJb3AdERZaklTg4IYaTcWx7r3NplRQxB25_okvONHgoU8zAPzBu5blbjz3ab02RR9ovMqM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41257964 40207709 39247615 38487727 38138105
39548196 40608120

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 01:38:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040138
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-040737-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040137Z - 040737Z

Summary...New thunderstorm activity has recently formed which has
the potential to grow upscale and track east-southeast with time.
Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible,
which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Isolated to widely scattered convection is forming
near an ML CAPE gradient across central MN and the western UP of
MI, despite a great deal of CIN remaining across the region.
Precipitable water values are ~2". Effective bulk shear of ~50
kts exists regionally. MU CAPE of 1500-4000 J/kg exists near the
new thunderstorm activity.

The mesoscale guidance shows a wide variety of solutions...used
the 18z hi-res NAM which appears to show a more realistic
depiction of what's upcoming. Thunderstorms are expected to grow
in scale and could train/backbuild while elevated over a surface
front in a region of 850 hPa confluence/convergence. The 850 hPa
inflow veers and increases with time, implying backbuilding and
eventual forward propagation would occur once a cold pool develops
in or near an east-west surface trough. Given the parameters
available, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are
possible. This could lead to flash flooding, particularly over
urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Rpge64qydJzKFe_hdg_MR1FY5JK2qVXwj4xyujtSzlTuMbM6uqDGNTf2TKO9aitl1i7M8PMV-LMTAYZcTtQhnMbN34$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...FGF...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46989242 46679015 46058882 45008725 44238697
43098806 43949111 45509473 46229567 46499398

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 02:53:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040251
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1192
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1050 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern Upstate NY & NYC/Long Island...Northeast PA...Northern NJ...Southwest CT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040250Z - 040830Z

SUMMARY...Narrow band of repeating cells through saturated areas
pose possible incidents of localized flash flooding even with
scattered 1-3" totals overnight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a embedded shortwave feature
across northwest PA sliding eastward though deeper unidirectional
WNW flow regime. This wave is supported by right entrance to 90kt
speed max over central upstate NY aiding vertical ascent pattern
along the convergent northern rotor of the shortwave feature. In
the low to mid-levels, RAP continues to show a weakly buoyant
environment remains in place along the NY/PA border extending into
the lower Hudson Valley with 500-1000 J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE
along and downstream of the mid-level forcing.

While the forcing and buoyancy are not particularly strong, there
remains modest elevated moisture flux convergence along a
tightening moisture gradient (denoted in PWat field). Pool of
1.75" across SW upstate NY into northern PA remains in proximity
to ascent axis though values drop off to below 1.3" across the
Mohawk Valley through northeast CT. So influx from the south and
southeast should provide capability for efficient rainfall
production due to flux convergence, though updrafts should be
narrow. Still, in strong WNW flow regime with 20-25kts of
850-700mb flow from the west, should allow for back-building or
upstream regeneration even as new development breaks out
downstream toward the Poconos/Catskills over the next few hours
(and further downstream into the Lower Hudson Valley). Rates to
1.5"/hr are possible though that coverage in intersection of
rainfoot across multiple upper reaches of watersheds needed for
broader flash flooding may be more limited.

The greater concern is that efficient warm cloud processes will
fall over areas recently compromised with multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall saturating the upper soil profiles as much of the area
along and south of the NY/PA line into SE NY are running well
above normal in the 90th to 99th percentiles around 65-80% ratios.
As such, FFG values are significantly reduced to less than 1"/hr
across a large portion of the area of concern with some spots
below .5"/hr. Three to six hour FFG are not much better with
broad areas below 1.5". Given narrow streaks of 1-3" and
scattered/small areal coverage confidence in flash flooding
conditions suggest possible incidents more than high/likely
confidence.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5pQ4KGTsimJNZIxTGAOh5MLU38zPywOekAH5EWQabaor_MKTYmHqhsFMnSht2vvKK8WzGtV7-Udg23duA1aUKOpN63A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42897689 42307505 41517314 41187228 40907229
40637301 40457406 41057574 41727733 42167810
42497844 42847817

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 06:38:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040638
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-041200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1193
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 AM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Wisconsin...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040645Z - 041200Z

SUMMARY...Increasing isentropic convection within
repeating/training profile suggests with ample moisture and rates
up to 2"/hr supports and axis of 2-4" totals through early
morning. Incidents of flash flooding becoming increasingly
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR depict two areas of
increasing convection across the Upper Great Lakes. The further
north across NE MN with a secondary WAA wing across W U.P of MI
with a broadening cluster of isentropically induced, expanding
clusters across central WI into SE WI. CIRA LPW/LVT along with
VWP shows the main core of the warm conveyor belt (eastern branch)
is over-topping the ridge and cyclonically curving, further
enhancing moisture convergence generally at a lower altitude about
850-900mb. The former is driven by proximity to stronger dPVA
from advancing shortwave trough over N MN with eastward expansion
around 700-750mb where the western branch of the developing TROWAL
has sufficient backed mid level flow for sufficient convergence
for increasing but slightly weaker WAA development.

Overall, the WCB is streaming along and northwest of the highest
instability axis which resides through the Mississippi River
Valley with nearly 4000 J/kg of CAPE near Lacrosse and southward,
though steady gradient of 1000-1500 J/kg extends as far northeast
into the SW portions of the U.P. denoting the weaker, more
scattered nature compared to those downstream in central and
southeast WI where overshooting tops are cooling below -70C. CIRA
LVT shows core of WCB is also T-boned across central WI with over
75-100 kg/m/s of flux through 850-700mb resulting in enhanced TPW
over 2". Given flow is 20-30kts convergence through 850-700mb and
strong updrafts will support 2"/hr rates with strongest cores
occasionally reaching 2.5".

Deep layer steering quickly veers out of the NW to support a
general NW to SE environment for repeating training, though mean
flow is strong, the effective bulk shear through depth solid
Supercell composites in lower double digits denote rotating
updraft capability reducing forward speed, increasing residency
time for the elevated cores. However, this rotation will help
some right turning deflection for ideal repeating/training
eventually reaching southeast WI and potentially intersecting more
urban locations that currently. As such streaks of 2-4" totals
are becoming increasingly possible. FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and
<3"/3hrs suggest scattered incidents of flash flooding are
becoming increasingly possible through the early morning hours.

Upstream, the forward propagating complex and warm advective 700mb
wing will continue to quickly advance into NW WI. GOES-E SWIR
suggests there are a few cells trying to develop along the NW to
SE axis between the complexes at lower elevations (and therefore
further southwest). Intense rates will accompany, but forward
speeds will be higher along with better southeasterly inflow to
further increase forward propagation. Combine this with naturally
higher FFG values (2-2.5"/hr & 3-4"/3hrs) across the Northwoods of
N WI and SW UP of MI and flash flooding is not as likely as
further downstream across central and SE WI. Still, this complex
is likely to begin to race southeast toward areas already affected
by leading clusters and may result in reaggrivation of any ongoing
flooding conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!68xFwCtBQBEP2zxQx6nrTb0FdMwLGaYu78PoZkpJqicj3x3v4O2kFKiFIUus469MveocjL3h6LmJyo9Q6rO0AtFA010$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46779245 46219067 45888972 45108773 44698720
43358768 42758768 42658826 43128896 44159011
45529186 46299266

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 09:51:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040951
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-041500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1194
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 AM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan...Northwest Ohio...Ext.
Northeast Indiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040950Z - 041500Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convection within favorable training/repeating
environment pose localized 2-3.5" totals and possible incident(s)
of flash flooding through morning.

DISCUSSION...09z surface analysis depicts an ill/broadly defined
stationary front across northern Ohio into far SW MI before
crossing Lower Lake Michigan into southern WI. Weak surface
southerly flow with enhanced low 70s Tds is providing convergence
along the stationary front, though quick veering of flow from 925
to 850mb more due westerly is only obliquely isentropically
ascending through the front. GOES-E WV suite and AMVs denote an
enhanced outflow channel perhaps influenced/aided by the upstream
convective complex over E WI, to provide some broadening
divergence aloft to accompany the weak surface convergence. RAP
analysis also notes, weakening CINH to below 10-20 J/kg across the
frontal zone from Lower MI into N WV but also aligned with
gradient of conditionally unstable air with up to 1250 J/kg of
CAPE available.

GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR denote these elements have been
sufficient for convective initiation with overshooting tops over
the cirrus cooling below -65C over Eaton/Jackson County with newer
cells downstream in northeast OH. Upstream elevated WAA
convection from the larger complex is starting to progress across
the Lake toward SW MI and like the new development is favorably
oriented to deep layer steering flow which should promote a
repeating/training environment. Effective bulk shear of 25-35kts
should further support cell organization with perhaps some weak
rotation to slow southeastward propagation increasing residency.

Pooled moisture through depth provides ample moisture and with
weakly veered/convergent 925-850mb flow at 20-25kts, provides
ample flux for efficient rainfall production and rates of
1.5-1.75"/hr. Hydrologically, southern MI is very sandy and
naturally high FFG values will require the repeating and or slowed
forward propagation to result in 2-3.5" totals in 3hrs; though
this does decrease toward SE MI and into northern OH where hourly
FFG values go from 2.5" in MI and less than 1.5" in SE MI/NW OH
(3hr over 3" and less than 2" respectively). As such, flash
flooding may be more isolated to widely scattered and more likely
in few urban locations in proximity to the frontal boundary. As
such, flash flooding is concerned possible through daybreak across
the area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9XdfiM1QS-OSdsIW6W8yhYE1652oOFx_kKT1HuFKTW_0h5pWJBBCiz9x_ZnQ3Nwevzxg4WX4HWZBGN7NmfxDarfRcE0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43898647 42768427 41478190 40878191 40728248
41078375 41548502 42188647 42748631 43208640

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 12:02:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041201
FFGMPD
WIZ000-041630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1195
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041200Z - 041630Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some additional
cell-training concerns will continue for at least a few more
hours. A threat for mainly urban flash flooding will persist this
morning as a result.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
band of strong convection with very cold cloud tops impacting
areas of central and eastern WI. The heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity is focused in close proximity to a quasi-stationary front
where a combination of stronger surface convergence and pooling of
elevated instability is working in tandem with relatively
divergent flow aloft to sustain the convective mass.

MUCAPE values are generally near 2000 J/kg with PWs of 1.5 to 1.75
inches. CIRA LVT data shows a well-defined low to mid-level
advance of moisture into central and eastern WI which is rounding
the top side of the subtropical ridge situated farther south over
parts of the OH Valley and middle MS Valley. A westerly low-level
jet of about 30+ kts is facilitating this moisture transport.

Satellite trends show additional areas of cooling clouds tops
upstream over western WI and even back into far southeast MN and
northeast IA. This suggests a likely persistence of the convective
threat for at least a few more hours downstream across areas of
central and eastern WI where recent radar data shows some
cell-training occurring.

Heavy rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour are possible with
the stronger storms, and the latest hires guidance led by the RRFS
and REFS suggests additional rainfall amounts of as much as 3 to
4+ inches going through late this morning. The additional rainfall
potential is expected to drive the persistence of at least an
urban flash flood threat as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7okZBTdaN39R2f0YMcDNihnuSHX0iuHqCk_ajzgzsrr4174UDvi3yJjBP6UmeoAHQj4BwnRpyXHkRfQcHtwgteGYpys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44468907 44218795 43638716 43128725 42828781
42918865 43198948 43659020 44089034 44428998

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 15:11:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041511
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-042110-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1196
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 AM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Great Lakes...Upper OH
Valley and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041510Z - 042110Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be
possible going into the afternoon hours as additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms impact portions of the Southern Great
Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and Central Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows an
elongated and broken axis of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms crossing through southern lower MI and down through
northeast OH. The convection is associated with proximity of a
frontal zone along with a wave of low pressure advancing east
along it.

Over the next several hours, a combination of daytime
heating/boundary layer destabilization along warm air advection
and moisture transport into this front should favor regional areas
of redeveloping and expanding convection. This should especially
be the case across the Upper OH Valley and central Appalachians
with an emphasis on eastern OH. western PA and northern WV where
greater instability profiles with MLCAPE values increasing to 1500
to 2500+ are expected. Areas of orographic ascent into the terrain
will also be a player in supporting convective initiation.

Moderate to strong instability by mid-afternoon coupled with PWs
of 1.5 to 1.75 inches and at least moderate vertical shear should
support some storm organization and areas of high rainfall rates
capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour. Some repeating/training
cell-activity will be expected at least locally, and this will
support some some storm totals of 2 to 3+ inches. This is
generally supported by a consensus of the 12Z CAM guidance.

The FFG values are rather low across eastern OH, northern WV and
especially western PA, with elevated streamflows noted in the
latest USGS streamflow data. These more sensitive soil conditions
will increase the concern for additional areas of flash flooding
going into the afternoon hours. The overall threat will tend to be
isolated to scattered in nature, but will also include at least
localized urban flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-xXYnSQnf45AA97WkWNxniAt7UDuveYledzS7XiCCfoMSmHjd6984EjvtQJno2XDxkd9EV9pynNBYdLfHrFF5Kcn-Eg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...LWX...PBZ...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42818646 42798493 42378267 41708007 40637885
39357898 38138015 38208168 39258263 40028321
40968436 41578603 42018668

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 16:27:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041627
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-042100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1226 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041626Z - 042100Z

SUMMARY...Some increase in the coverage of heavy showers and
thunderstorms is expected over the next few hours. Additional
pockets of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with radar trends
show some uptick and expansion of convection across southern MS,
with some localize backbuilding and cell-training noted over the
last hour. The convection is focusing along a well-defined axis of
low to mid-level moisture convergence in close vicinity of a
surface trough, and mid-level low center over the north-central
Gulf of America.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg are noted along with PWs near
2.25 inches. Some modest easterly shear is noted over the central
Gulf Coast region given the placement of the mid-level low over
the Gulf and the subtropical ridge to the north. This is
supporting some localized organization of some of the convective
cells.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with
the strongest cells, and the latest HRRR and RRFS solutions
support some spotty 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals going through late
this afternoon. This will support some additional potential for
areas of flash flooding, and especially in vicinity of the more
urbanized areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_JBOZOS2TRL7owZQSOi8HKzaeo0f2-tguNsB5Gt9VrjJMcpsGAZy--71n47GksARG5hGkr1OdIiKkXGpb0BOwwUjG4s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31548931 31318858 30878823 30338834 30258913
30608978 31029026 31459012

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 18:06:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041806
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-050004-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1198
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KY east & southeast into VA/NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041804Z - 050004Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop in
southwest WV and eastern KY. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are building up across
southwest WV & eastern KY downstream of an instability pool across
OH, ahead of a front at 850 hPa and a surface thermal gradient,
and near the northeast periphery of a warm core high/ridge. CIN
is still trying to erode over portions of the Mid-Atlantic States
and eastern NC. Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts. Precipitable
water values of 1.5-2" exist in the region. ML CAPE is broadly
1500-3000 J/kg.

The mesoscale guidance signal here appears delayed compared to
what's ongoing. The mean 850-400 hPa wind, 1000-500 hPa thickness
pattern, and forward propagating Corfidi vectors strongly suggest
southeast motion to convection today. Convective coverage should
eventually become most dense across southeast VA and portions of
central and eastern NC where the 850 hPa confluence is strongest.
Given the ingredients available, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding particularly in/near sharp topography and in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Q-bWrSzzBie4cz2EIRgjsxjCclUQ1qRV-O40BGy_NZNXIh_v4-86k_GO5M3G7dpJpUpTnZtIxR6E6lP7oXovNDU0xY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MHX... MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38708313 38528180 38027779 37687543 36107548
35027729 34817937 35768142 38498407

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 18:12:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041811
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-050010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1199
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Southeast AZ...Western and Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041810Z - 050010Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms with some high-level
moisture tap from Hurricane Marie in the eastern Pacific will
impact southeast AZ through the western half of NM this afternoon.
Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely with impacts most
likely focused on burn scars and arroyos.

DISCUSSION...The late morning GOES-W GeoColor satellite imagery
along with LightningCast data shows convective initiation taking
place across areas of the Southwest with an emphasis on southeast
AZ through much of western and central NM. The larger scale view
of the Southwest shows a rather well-defined mid to upper-level
channel of moisture streaming northeastward up across the region,
with origins of some of this moisture extending well southwest
down to Hurricane Marie southwest of the Baja Peninsula.

OSPO-ALPW and experimental CIRA-LVT data shows moisture up in the
500/300 mb layer that will facilitate a notably efficient vertical
column for enhanced rainfall rates this afternoon as the diurnal
heating cycle/boundary layer destabilization process continues and
convection develops and expands in coverage.

SBCAPE values have already risen to as much as 1000 to 2000 J/kg
and the aforementioned moisture transport is driving PWs as high
as 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. Some modest effective
bulk shear of 20 to 30 kts is in place with the stronger mid to
upper-level southwest flow aloft, and this shear coupled with the
thermodynamic environment may favor some locally organized
convective cells, with a mix of pulse and multi-cell convection
being the primary convective mode.

The rainfall rates are likely to be quite high given the
environment and the addition of orographic ascent/terrain-focused
convection will help support some rainfall rates as high as 1 inch
in 20 to 30 minutes, and some hourly totals up to 2 inches. The
hires multi-model CAM guidance suggests some spotty totals by
later this afternoon of 2 to 4 inches and this may be driven not
only by terrain, but also a couple of cell-mergers.

Given the setup with rainfall rates and totals, scattered areas of
flash flooding are likely. The greatest impacts are expected to be
for the normally dry washes/arroyos and burn scar locations,
including downstream areas even away from where the heaviest
rainfall occurs.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6C9AuZ32SDgN2T4_933LAsUXV_9uTqWiolVGI6MFvjp-C6W0PWGp29dCHsxv37iZsyLwx71j60voo9A_rSE_FXJfJvA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36360644 36130545 35280495 33830504 33060525
32600549 31740661 31250860 31201036 31401137
32071189 33111187 34091124 35131011 36030843

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 18:20:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041819
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-050018-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1200
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Southeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041818Z - 050018Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are starting to produce high
rain rates near sea breeze fronts heading towards an 850 hPa
confluence zone. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to
5" are possible where cells merge or manage to train, which could
cause flash flooding.

Discussion...An 850 hPa confluence zone stretches along the FL
border with GA/AL at the present time. Sea breeze convection
along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts has initiated thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall across the marshes of Southeast GA and
portions of the FL Big Bend & Panhandle. Precipitable water
values are ~2.25". Effective bulk shear is under 25 kts, implying
pulse convection. ML CAPE is 2000-3000 J/kg.

The guidance suggests that convection will try to push westward
with time, partially due to the Atlantic sea breeze north of the
confluence zone but also due to instability becoming exhausted and
resultant outflow boundaries. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with
local totals to 5" are possible, which could be sufficient to
cause flash flooding in urban areas and across the Red Hills of
southern GA and the FL Big Bend/eastern Panhandle.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-GFx-Xf0nIOMH2n6nllhUU7ABu7-6tyP7iS0U4_etiNJu5YcQvRWhK0OosoWYwMShmzOeiJXu_YDGG9RNrgOycd8btE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CHS...JAX...LIX...MLB...MOB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31888611 31468158 30498128 29198112 29348269
29548524 29978580 30308664 30498841 31448885

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 19:40:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041940
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-050137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1201
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...in and near Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041937Z - 050137Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are redeveloping near
the LA/MS border. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to
5" could lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are redeveloping near the
LA/MS border, possibly caused from an MCV that moved out of
earlier activity. The region is around the northern side of a
large upper level low encompassing the Gulf. Precipitable water
values are 2.25-2.5". ML CAPE is 1500-2500 J/kg, and CIN is
eroding in and near southern MS. Effective bulk shear is <25 kts,
which should lead to pulse convection.

The mesoscale guidance shows a general uptick and then collapse of
convection regionally over the next six hours, though the degree
of coverage shows significant variance -- the 12z HREF is much
more bullish than the 12z REFS -- which leads to greater
uncertainty than usual in convective expectations. The RAP opens
up an 850 hPa low offshore southeast LA and moves a zone of 850
hPa confluence into southern LA with time, which could aid heavy
rainfall production. Given the parameters in place, hourly
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible where cell
merge or manage to train. This degree of rainfall would be most
problematic in urban areas. Flash flooding is possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-X-y_UgOGjbeoVX3_AawfmJr2zlflsX7YNrC6FeXZGNExWxgluCgtoDdROqWpNRdqRJXbaY8rIqgz7znhNV7c57IXmo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33029349 32929046 30508913 28988912 29089138
29669489 31679506

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 20:24:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042024
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050222-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1202
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042022Z - 050222Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form as CIN
erodes. Hourly rain amounts to 2" could lead to flash flooding
where topsoil is minimal or in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form west
of an upper level low retrograding towards the region within an
area of eroding CIN and in the vicinity of a weak thermal
gradient, with temperatures in the 80s/90s closer to the
upper-level low and 100F in the cumulus field to its west.
Precipitable water values of 1.4-1.9" lie here. ML CAPE is
2000-3500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is close to 25 kts. The
mean 850-400 hPa flow is exceedingly weak, on the order of 5 kt,
slightly less than the 850 hPa inflow.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue to broaden with time,
peaking in coverage an intensity 23-00z before fading thereafter
as CIN redevelops. Inflow from the Gulf up the Rio Grande is
expected to veer slightly but increase in intensity, both of which
given the mean flow could lead to backbuilding or stationary
convection. However, as instability erodes, there could be a
tendency for convection to shift southwest towards the Rio Grande
as seen in the 12z REFS guidance. In the meantime, given the
ingredients above, hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible where
cells move very slowly or where cells merge. This would be
problematic in urban areas and where top soil is minimal.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_TMYkRsXoAcEKF3oY5q136hpj_OWbeR3kOf7hEtyjtPsnQGubtKMh-5n2XbZqURw91YpGv_eP2haJv6rz4z3dQ-R5D8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34310100 33489958 32219925 30299947 29670086
30250282 32410240

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 22:16:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042215
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-050413-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1203
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
615 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of Far Southeast AZ & NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042213Z - 050413Z

Summary...Shower and thunderstorm development is near its peak
regionally and should begin a downturn in coverage and intensity
this evening. Until that happens, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are
possible where cells merge or train, which could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave moving through
the Lower CO river valley at the present time, which is enhancing
difluence aloft near the Southern Rockies. When compared to
yesterday, thunderstorms over NM have been more numerous and
productive while cells over southeast AZ have seen a downturn.
This is due to the day-to-day precipitable water trends, which are
up ~0.50" in NM and down 0.25-0.5" in southern AZ, likely caused
by Marie's slow departure and shortwaves moving through the base
of the upper level trough. Thunderstorms reside within a region
of 700 hPa confluence. Regionally, precipitable water values are
1-1.7" currently with the highest values in southwest NM/near El
Paso TX. ML CAPE is 500-1000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25-30
kts in portions of NM, and below 25 kts in AZ.

Guidance suggests a slow downturn in convective development and
coverage should begin shortly and accelerate after 01z, with
activity in southwest NM/near El Paso hanging on the longest. For
as long as cell coverage can remain sufficient, hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" are possible where cells merge or train, which
would be problematic in burn scars, arroyos/dry washes, slot/box
canyons, and urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!67b98vmftg9VXxyVLM3r4RvvTgxVoE0W7-8slzcmIOAemzsvSdM4uFb1Pp-nnt5MnjWOukawKY6HLIqllX_CPqKhfQw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36260689 35860502 34380432 32550525 31380693
31170940 31461180 32741020 34570916

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 23:12:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042312
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-050337-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1204
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern VA & NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042307Z - 050337Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms continue to march southeast
through the region. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional
local totals to 4" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with greater
concentration near the eastern VA/NC border continue moving
southeast through the area within a zone of 850 hPa confluence
near a thermal boundary, though more elevated as of late. This
activity lies on the northeast periphery of a warm core ridge.
Precipitable water values of 1.75-2" exist here. ML/MU CIN has
developed across VA and portions of northern and eastern NC; MU
CAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg is seen regionally. Effective bulk shear
is 25-40 kts, which is helping to organize convection.

With MU CIN developing, convective coverage should continue to
wane which should lead to a slow reduction in the scale of the
flash flood threat. In the meantime, cell mergers, mesocyclones,
and cell training could lead to hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and
additional local totals to 4". These amounts would be most
problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_9FInOhx1XsS0v2NB8_n_EUjhg826otN3VaPbs2pM5ljQs2_3_YNm9tOyvCRcO_9NiEhwabxWASR-3V5HOKqqgwpGyo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37797677 37677553 36927581 36147537 35297530
34947589 34607639 34427775 35687977 37537944

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 00:59:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050059
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-050627-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1205
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Areas affected...Southeast PA, Southern NJ, & DE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050057Z - 050627Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to intensify and
grow in scale as they move southeast. Hourly rain amounts to 2"
with local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...Some shower and thunderstorm activity has recently
formed across central PA, whose motion is not quite aligned in a
training manner. It is forming within a MU CAPE gradient which is
slowly settling southward and is oriented northwest- southeast
within an area of 850 hPa confluence. Effective bulk shear is
30-40 kts. MU CAPE is 500-1000 J/kg.

The low-level convergence zone should settle somewhat southward
with time. Both the 18z HREF and 12z REFS have a signal for this
activity which appears to be forming right on their schedule.
With time, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
form with the activity potentially growing in scale into a small
convective complex as it moves southeast, which could lead to cell training/mergers. The magnitude of effective bulk shear allows
for mesocyclones as well. Most of the guidance that advertises
heavy rainfall in this region doesn't enhance this activity
significantly until right after it passes out of southeast PA, but
it's too close for comfort. Given the moisture available, hourly
rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible. This
degree of rainfall could exceed the three hour flash flood
guidance values, particularly across southeast PA. Flash flooding
is considered possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7OuBssVrwAxq_d2SsrPXhchwUHLdyAN_l6rEXLB6Dy5AMZ0nf5yirnpW81mfXnjb6aGL_ppKADHqYxuTW3FurrdwDVs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41367825 41137708 39867489 39347432 39147462
38907473 38807497 38407502 38497573 39677716
40987831

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 05:17:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050517
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-051100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1206
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
116 AM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Southern Michigan...Northeast Indiana...Northwest
to Southeast Ohio...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050520Z - 051100Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective activity with capability of
1.5-1.75"/hr rates and favorable repeating/training environment
for localized streaks of 2-3" totals overnight. Isolated to
widely scattered flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...05z surface analysis shows a weak surface low at the
southern base of Lake Michigan at a weak inflection the stationary
front that is more west to east along the WI/IL state line before
angling south-southeast across NE IND into central OH before
crossing into W PA. Aloft, a 500mb jet speed max is exiting the
LP across Lake Erie into the Mid-Atlantic resulting in a broad
right entrance region across SW LP of MI, where also a pocket of
cooler air aloft (-6 to -8C) resides sliding eastward indicative
of slightly enhanced lapse rates further west. Low level
925-700mb deep layer flow has responded with still mostly
unidirectional flow out of the west, but a small veered low level
profile weakly oblique to the isentropic plane associated with the
frontal zone. In addition, retrograding upper-level low over
Eastern Canada has started to result in increasing 925-850mb
northeasterly flow which is significantly drier. This is helping
to steepen isentropes near and downstream of the weak surface low
to support deep layer convergence in the isentropic ascent for
convective initiation across S MI at this time, coincident with
the 500-300mb divergence maxima passing southeastward.

The overall coverage and organization still remains scattered due
to oblique/weak convergence forcing, but the ample deep layer
moisture pooled in this region is about 2" of TPW. Slow
organization and increasingly confluent steering flow across NW
OH/SE MI may help to organize thunderstorm activity into a more
favorable orientation for repeating/training. Still, MUCAPE is
higher further southwest into NE IL/NW IND around 4000 J/kg, but
remains very capped with 50-75 J/kg of remaining CINH. RAP
analysis suggests weaker capping (less than 25 J/kg) along the
northeast gradient of CAPE but still around 1500-2000 J/kg to
support strong updraft vigor and low level moisture flux
convergence for efficient rainfall production. Bulk shear is a
bit weak overall for better organization (currently about
20-25kts) but any improvement may allow for broader updrafts as
well, but given inflow of 20-30kts (also 925mb northeasterly flow
of 15kts) should allow for flux convergence to support 1.5-1.75";
though this could increase with any improvement in deeper shear
profile toward 2"/hr.

So while repeating is likely to be required to overcome the higher
FFG values of S MI/NE IND (currently 1.8-2.3"/hr), this will
reduce across areas recently saturated by activity though the last
few days across SE MI/Northwest OH, where values drop to 1.5-2"/hr
with some spots even below 1.5" further southeast; with 3hr values
of 2-2.5" across much of the area of concern. So with localized
streaks of 2-3" totals, isolated to widely scattered incident(s)
of flash flooding will become possible though the early morning

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8hxLLuxJafOzbZLbQ7YTA0RNlx1KzzRj1oPPjwWf_0fkvdcDiT5NCmjt2lc6zsa5PAIJi55bTk3eixJJal_rrdhSzvs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42278604 42208477 41828342 40858144 40388109
39718116 39408225 39648332 40388494 41478645

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 07:27:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050727
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-051300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1207
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050730Z - 051300Z

SUMMARY...Warm-air advection convection will be slow moving with
rates of 1.5"/hr . Very dry, high FFG grounds may be able to
uptake much of the rainfall, but isolated exceedance remains
possible given localized totals of 2-3.5" are possible through
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad warming across SD as
downstream ridging amplifies slowly, but also a broad area of
increasing divergence aloft exists as well, as sub-tropical jet
turns more easterly across KS and S NEB, as well as advancing
large scale trough enters the northwest providing diffluent flow
of the polar jet streak across the western Dakotas. As such, the
LLJ has rapidly increased over the last few hours with 850mb winds
increasing to 40-50kts over the western Dakotas, with
confluent/convergent 25-30kts across eastern South Dakota. This
convergent flow has increased deep layer moisture to over 1.5"
pooled along a stationary front that bisects SD from NW to SE
before turning east across N IA. Surface Tds in the low to
mid-70s and increasing 850mb moisture but steepened lapse rates
over 700mb from mid-level dry air supports high MUCAPE over 4000
J/kg per RAP analysis. Though highly capped, the strength of the
deep layer moisture confluence/convergence is supporting
isentropic ascent across the boundary resulting in convective
development across south-central SD with scattered TCu and
isolated CBs into north-central SD.

GOES-E 10.3um shows cluster cooling below -60C, and RADAR shows
numerous smaller updrafts starting to congeal into larger
clusters. Rain-rates are starting to respond and increase locally
to 1.5"/hr. This may occasionally uptick toward 1.75", but the
greater concern is residency time. Deep layer steering in the
divergent flow aloft and building ridging (noted in 850-500mb
reduced flow east into central MN), suggests very slow north to
north-northeast motions. However, given the strength of the
low-level inflow and 1000-500 thickness packing; propagation
vectors are toward the south-southeast at 5-10kts, resulting in
slow eastward drift at 5-10kts. Upwind redevelopment in proximity
to the isentropic boundary may help with some
back-building/regeneration to further increase time at any given
location. As such, widely scattered spots of 3-3.5"/hr are
possible within an axis of 2-3" east and north of the Missouri
River & frontal zone.

This increased residency will be required given naturally high FFG
values of 2-2.5"/hr and 2-3"/3hrs across much of the area of
concern. Combined with long-period dry grounds as 0-40cm ratios
are dismally low less than 10%. Rates can be high given hard
ground conditons but may not be excessive enough that slow
infiltation is more likely. Still, the overall totals locally of
3-3.5" may still result in a low-end isolated to widely scattered
incident or two of flash flooding through the early morning and is
therefore considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!47hubHXHVii3AQyBic2oDTCdKem_BmyskntQsd9YZBbV9uIWw9FPYMooUzakrbBtejy7LQlCMPGye5vYBpuHme3VAiM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45649842 45359757 44839674 44359639 43669620
43149641 42929679 42939768 43219867 43999931
44889962 45559925

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:44:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051744
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-052330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1208
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Far Southwest TX...Central and Southern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051743Z - 052330Z

SUMMARY...Developing scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected going through the afternoon hours.
Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible, and mainly for
the more sensitive burn scar and canyon areas along with dry
washes.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
some convective initiation taking place across the Sacramento
Mountains. The daytime heating cycle will continue to foster
additional boundary layer destabilization, and this coupled with
differential heating boundaries and terrain-driven circulations
should promote a gradual uptick in convective coverage with
scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms.

Much of the current instability is over southern NM and far
southwest TX, and inclusive of areas near the Sacramento Mountains
and the Davis Mountains. SBCAPE avalues of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg are
noted across these areas. However, the monsoonal moisture
footprint across the region is relatively modest with PWs as high
as 1.25+ inches.

The latest hires model CAMs suggest a scattered convective
footprint with some potential for isolated 2 to 3 inch rainfall
totals. Overall, the greatest rainfall totals should tend to be
near the Sacramento Mountains, however, some adjacent areas of
southern NM and far southwest TX will also have support for this
and especially with some storms being capable of being slow-moving
while producing some rainfall rates of 1.5 inches/hour.

An isolated threat for flash flooding will exist as a result going
through the afternoon hours. The more sensitive burn scar and
canyon areas along with dry washes will be most susceptible to
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8XzfE2jacviXKMYrJA-RU7p93GGDJ-txNWNSKc2PZqPiU1F44zax57kSubCVrLhma5R60V0V-I6eZclGw-qlF9FA69U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34430671 34120501 31600401 30520329 29780359
29650449 30630572 31420665 31730814 32540880
33370844

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 17:47:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051747
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southwest LA & Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051745Z - 052345Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
becoming numerous across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5", particularly in urban areas and soils
still partially saturated by Edouard.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across Southwest LA & Southeast TX. This is occurring near a zone
of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5".
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, leading to pulse convection. ML
CAPE is ~2000 J/kg.

GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index values imply that convection could
continue to increase in coverage through 21z before starting to
starting to fade thereafter. This is supported by 12z HREF
guidance. Due to the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5" are possible where cells merge or manage
to train. This would be most problematic in urban areas and
locations with soils remaining at least partially saturated from
Edouard's deluge a few days ago.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8vDuqr29apw118N3IGUTU3EapgbV3Y_yFlO52aBPjckqaX1WDr8OYsrEzCE6TTxI8RkAJleD-PqKNbN-4puYrSI_6Mo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32469462 31379275 30899044 29749097 29409190
29539385 28669566 28349692 29719685 31349648
32309565

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 18:15:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051747
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1209
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southwest LA & Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051745Z - 052345Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
becoming numerous across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5", particularly in urban areas and soils
still partially saturated by Edouard.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across Southwest LA & Southeast TX. This is occurring near a zone
of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5".
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, leading to pulse convection. ML
CAPE is ~2000 J/kg.

GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index values imply that convection could
continue to increase in coverage through 21z before starting to
starting to fade thereafter. This is supported by 12z HREF
guidance. Due to the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 3"
with local totals to 5" are possible where cells merge or manage
to train. This would be most problematic in urban areas and
locations with soils remaining at least partially saturated from
Edouard's deluge a few days ago.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5zxcEsyxRDCnpl8x4X6i1BxF5kiv7qCngCjFUy4CubUPjGF3S80pA0JmQ5Tr4ScwKG7v8Q9fNQ9Z0_DCPOYEeWPYFys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32469462 31379275 30899044 29749097 29409190
29539385 28669566 28349692 29719685 31349648
32309565

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 21:31:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052130
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-060326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1212
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of the NE Panhandle/northeast CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052126Z - 060326Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are aligning/congealing along
a convergence zone in the NE Panhandle. Hourly rain amounts to 2"
with local totals to 4" are possible, which may lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...There has been some consolidation of a line of
convection along a convergence zone in the NE Panhandle, which
both the 18z HREF/12z REFS indicated, to some degree, farther
south of its current location. CIN has eroded in its vicinity.
Precipitable water values are 1-1.25", fairly high for the High
Plains. ML CAPE is ~1500 J/kg in the vicinity of the convective
line, which lies along a north- south instability gradient. This
convection is also near the 15C isotherm at 700 hPa, which tends
to act as the edge of effective mid-level capping in the High
Plains. Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts is organizing
convection.

The guidance indicates some south to south-southeast shifting of
this convective line with time and possible consolidation into a
small convective complex. This movement is at a significant angle
to the 850-400 hPa mean wind, 1000-500 hPa thickness pattern, and
forward propagation vectors. This could be due to the convection,
with time, creating a hole in the instability field which forces
activity into the southerly low-level inflow and the idea that CIN
never fully erodes to its east as 700 hPa temperatures are high
enough to cap lower elevations of the Plains. In any event, the
parameters above suggest hourly rain amounts to 2" with local
totals to 4" are possible. As this activity is straddling the
edge of the Sand Hills, flash flooding prospects are conditional.
Should this heavy rainfall occur outside of the Sand Hills or in
urban areas, flash flooding would be possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ZP3N-oj_mcV4D7tvZHTvJIxn-nNf-TvYyMB8SXLtViVPirUDlLXJ9kpP2US9XZSIO9q7LaRdMTx5Qyl_oUFhtbywgU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 43190258 42980179 41820159 40590191 40470333
41760379

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 02:58:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060257
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-060800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1213
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southwest Nebraska &
Southern Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060300Z - 060800Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding remains possible for areas out
of Sand Hills or South Platte River Valley for a few more hours
before complex become forward propagating limiting duration at any
specific location.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows favorable mid to upper level
environment remains across the central High Plains as a subtle
shortwave lifts northeast across E WY along the northwest edge of
the larger scale ridge that is anchored along or just east of
100W. ML 6.9um also notes some higher cirrus with more of a
southwest to east-northeast orientation out of central CO toward W
KS. The combination of features continues to support strong
divergence pattern over Northeast CO into SW NEB, outflow
continues to strengthen due fed as a response to earlier
convective activity with AMV suggesting 60-70ks across the Sand
Hills into southern SD. As such, low level flow continues to
strengthen out of the south and southeast with 850mb flow around
25-30kts from the SE becoming strongly convergent in response to
the 850mb low forming across NE CO. Combine this with 700mb due
south jet providing further sub-tropical moisture connection per
CIRA LPW in the complex with slight confluence from southwesterly
700mb flow off the Front Range to further support short-term
back-building of convection toward the cyclone over the last few
hours. Outflow boundaries have gusted westward and 3.9um SWIR
loop and observations denoted the increase in overall moisture
with Tds in the 50s now back as far west as 82V and GXY, and some
60s as far west as AKO, IML and SYF. Total PWat estimates are
starting to reach 1.6-1.7" and with little sub-cloud evaporation,
rates are increasing to 1.5"/hr locally.

The back-building should start to reduce with time as forward
propagation should be drawing the convective cores eastward toward
06-07z. However, there remains a small window where back-building
southerly inflow at 850-700mb will counter strengthening
southeasterly inflow and cell residency may result from some
short-term periods of repeating or even cell mergers being within
the northeast (downshear) quadrant of the developing cyclone. As
such spots of 2-3" totals remain possible resulting in potential
for localized flash flooding. Hydrologically, the FFG values are
highly variable due to larger sand hills across SW NEB and
naturally absorptive soils in the broader South Platte River
Channel proper. However, there are still some rugged, rockier
locations across NE CO that will likely shed some of the higher
rate totals. As the complex forward propagates into stronger
southeasterly flow, overall totals should diminish across NW
KS...south-central NEB.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ACidGhqoCqoN8u-nxLzKT63cEIhkgW3oSnaMY3w3ZYF_0LeUsFjBNx1IqQ9-e1BbJTgQYNwqG60h19WaHFgaRls_z0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41750245 41460157 40940119 40490125 39950195
39760277 39930364 40410421 41050412 41560353

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 15:57:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 061557
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-062155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1214
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Central/Eastern SD...Far Northeast NE...Northwest IA...Southwest MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061555Z - 062155Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the concentration of heavy showers
and thunderstorms can be expected going through the afternoon
hours. A growing threat for scattered areas of flash flooding will
exist which may include some urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The mid to late-morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery
shows broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting
portions of central/southern SD and northeast NE, with separate
activity also noted more recently over parts of southwest MN and
adjacent areas of northern IA.

Much of the activity is associated with an ejecting shortwave
trough out across the central Plains which is gradually moving off
to the east while also interacting with a quasi-stationary front.
Warm air advection ahead of the shortwave coupled with a corridor
of strong elevated instability and the arrival of DPVA should set
the stage for a more expansive convective footprint by early to
mid-afternoon.

MUCAPE values near and just northeast of the stationary front are
on the order of 3000 to 4000 J/kg, and PWs are quite high with
values near 1.75 inches. This combination of moisture and
instability will support showers and thunderstorms with
increasingly heavy rainfall rates as stronger forcing/lift arrives
with the shortwave dynamics/divergent flow aloft.

The 12Z hires CAMs as a consensus supports rainfall rates capable
of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the expanding corridors of
stronger storms. However, the growing concern over the next
several hours will be slow cell-motions and a favorable
environment for backbuilding and locally training convection as
suggested by the Corfidi upwind propagation vectors.

Some rainfall totals by mid-afternoon may reach as high as 3 to 5+
inches given the high rainfall rates and slow cell-motions, and
this is supported by the consensus of the 12Z hires CAMs. These
high rainfall totals will generally favor 1 and 3-hour FFG
exceedance (30 to 50+ percent probabilities).

Therefore, the threat for at least scattered areas of flash
flooding is expected to increase with time, with an emphasis on
eastern SD into southwest MN and northwest IA. This will include
concerns for urban impacts, and especially for areas near Sioux
Falls.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_JN6FKnpbDfdBmMquVwukJLfpE-h3b60MgqyNaIeqJ1V8-zC1t0V69OU63ZTPFtyPTTElclEUmBL-ARZzILMdYOlHO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DMX...FGF...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46079883 46029690 45589570 45129506 44289445
43219412 41579445 41119605 42279765 43539904
44370051 45540070

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 19:07:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 061907
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-070104-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1215
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...South Carolina into Eastern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061904Z - 070104Z

SUMMARY...Increasing shower and thunderstorm development over the late-afternoon and early evening across South Carolina into
Georgia will lead to scattered instances of flash flooding as
rainfall rates reach between 2-3 inches per hour with the
strongest cells.

DISCUSSION...Current radar and satellite depictions note an
upstream shortwave migrating southeastward out of the Ohio Valley
with increased forcing within the western NC mountains down into
the Piedmont of the Carolinas as scattered thunderstorm activity
ensues over the area. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed
from western NC down through the SC Midlands to the SC coastal
plain with slow forward propagation to the south as high pressure
over the Great Lakes noses the front down east of the
Appalachians. Moisture and instability fields remain prime for
heavy rainfall prospects as PWAT anomalies between +1 to +2
deviations are situated along and south of the frontal boundary in
the Carolinas into northern FL. SBCAPE between 1500-3000 J/kg are
located across SC with some SBCAPE inferences of up to 4000 J/kg
are located along the southeastern GA coast leading to the
potential for significant convective cores capable of initiating
strong to locally severe thunderstorms over the back half of the
afternoon through the early evening time frame.

Increased low-level convergence along the front, as well as along
the immediate SC/GA coast thanks to a weak surface low positioned
100 miles off the coast of Charleston, SC will act as focal points
for convection as mean flow out of the northwest will lead to cell
motions generally down through SC with an anchoring near the
coastal plain as they approach a defined surface trough analyzed
along the SC/GA coastal plain. Latest RRFS/HRRR outputs indicate
cell initiation across SC forming between 19-20z with a blossoming
in the overall coverage shortly thereafter as temperatures in the
low-90s allow for a breach of convective temps situated around
90-92F as noted via the 12z RAOB from KCHS and 18z RAOB from KJAX.
Main convective mode will likely be multi-cellular as a lack of
sufficient shear will limit mesocyclone maturation, however, given
the overall buoyancy of the thermodynamic environment and
increasing favorable kinematics, strong to locally severe
thunderstorms will develop and produce high convective rainfall
rates between 2-3"/hr for much of the aforementioned area.

12z HREF neighborhood probs for >3" over 6hrs are upwards of
60-90% for the time frame between 21-03z this evening over the SC
Midlands down through all of southeast GA into northeast FL with
HREFbm totals for the threat encroaching on 3-5" for the same
area. This signal is more than sufficient for scattered flash
flooding within those urbanized settings over the region with an
emphasis on places like Columbia, Charleston, and Beaufort in SC,
as well as Augusta to Savannah/Brunswick in GA given their more
favorable run off capabilities due to urbanization. Heavy
convection will be littered across the region with a general 1-2"
forecast with locally heavier totals upwards of 5" in the hardest
hit locations.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9qmILs4jiVnzLGhUJruSyO1_VXiqXVV5pJjlIwy-vxQ6UVQok-wL-C-L4d93fKMk396mih25OdcI1Uqr0fKYi5PX-hQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35168190 35138102 34878036 34118014 33497989
33007972 32677973 32388020 31668096 30138146
30638315 31728360 32648306 33698233 34778234

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 21:56:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 062155
FFGMPD
MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070353-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Corn Belt into the Missouri River
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062153Z - 070353Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous slow-moving thunderstorms, some
strong to severe, will lead to a continued flash flood threat for
portions of the Corn Belt down through the adjacent Missouri River
Valley. Rainfall rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible
in the strongest thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Widespread heavy thunderstorm activity continues
across much of western Iowa up into neighboring South Dakota and
Minnesota this afternoon. Upper level setup remains favorable for
broad scale ascent within a diffluent region positioned over the
North-Central Plains to Upper Midwest thanks to the slow
progression of a strong upper trough navigating over the
Northwestern U.S. At the surface, intense low-level convergence is
occurring within a narrow corridor situated near and just east of
the Missouri River as a quasi-stationary front aligns north to
south between SD down into KS. A broad surface high over the Great
Lakes allows for a continued southeasterly flow on the western
fringes of the ridge, providing a more prevalent low-level
convergence signature in tandem with the stationary front in
place. Deep moisture advection and elevated theta_E's continue to
align in parallel to the frontal placement with MUCAPE firmly
between 3000-5000 J/kg according to the latest RAP mesoanalysis
over northwest MO through much of western IA. The setup remains
favorable for scattered to widespread heavy convective development
within that corridor of elevated theta_E's and PWATs bisecting the
region with much of the CAMs maintaining the posture into the
evening.

Convective modes will remain more pulse to multi-cellular
varieties, but the formidable instability axis and deep moist
profile lend to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
torrential rainfall rates and gusty winds that will exacerbate
flash flooding concerns where significant rainfall has already
occurred, and points further south as mid-level ascent becomes
more favored for areas of west-central IA down into northwestern
MO. Latest HRRR/RRFS combo is consistent in the signature of heavy
thunderstorm development within the narrow tongue of elevated
theta_E's centered just east of the Missouri River. Rainfall rates
between 2-3"/hr are likely in the strongest cell cores and with
mean flow generally out of the north to north-northwest, cells
will train or slowly wander over the same areas leading to
localized totals exceeding 3 inches with some CAMs members showing
upwards of 6 inches plausible in the setup. Despite some modest
FFG's over the region, rainfall rates and significant rainfall
totals will supersede majority of the antecedent dryness over the
area leading to a greater threat for flash flooding. Given the
current state of flash flood warnings already issued with the
environmental favorability continuing through the evening, flash
flooding is likely to continue to the aforementioned area.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_rgRiAhXDAIHEdS6NhNEBj4fLxR8JrAk7yfk0RMSasMbanj7LkDeN4yihU3gn78mpdWivACoOKTeeT_BQEx2mcF00MM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...MPX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43649577 43619511 43509459 43149407 42379382
41449364 40749345 39779338 38589337 38139408
38269520 39689591 40939638 41689650 42169655
42679662 43049667 43529640 43619606

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 05:28:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070527
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Eastern WY...Southwest SD...Northern NEB
Panhandle....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070530Z - 071000Z

SUMMARY...Very strong moisture flux convergence and short-term
repeating downdrafts capable of 1.5-1.75"/hr rates moving into
naturally lower FFG values and may result in localized flash
flooding incident or two.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows a very strong dynamic upper-low
crossing E WA into E ID with a broad dry-slot across the Great
Basin. Strong dual jet structure over ID and core of of 100-120kt
jet over W WY is favorably arched to provide strong diffluence
along the eastern underside of the jet across the High Plains of
CO into E WY. Strong low-level response has been seen in VWP and
RAP analysis supporting 850-700 FGEN axis just east of the
Colorado Front Range northward along the E WY toward SE MT given
25-30kts of veered surface to 700mb flow (easterly to southerly).
As such, moisture is pooling along the FGEN fields with total PWat
values increasing to over 1.25" to 1.5" quickly over the next few
hours. The strong forcing acting on a pool of conditionally
unstable air across E WY/SW SD/NW NEB (2000-2500 J/kg) has
resulted in broader ascent that given the strong effective bulk
shear of 40-50kts has resulted in broader supercell/rotating
updrafts with cells given broade southeasterly inflow have started
with increased flanking line development. Further moisture flux
convergence due to supercell structures are broadening the inflow
field to inject more moisture to support increasing 1.5-1.75"/hr.

While deep layer steering from the southwest would normally result
in very quick motions, the rotation is also reducing forward speed
with some eastward deflection, allowing for the flanking line
development to orient favorably for short-term repeating/increased
residency in the near storm environment. As the cells move out of
the North Platte Valley into NW NEB/SW SD, the FFG values reduce
quickly with 1hr FFG values less than 1.5" and 3hr of 2-2.5".
Given potential for localized 2-3" totals due to short-term
training both FFG time periods become at risk of exceedance.
Though northern cell in Weston county is moving toward higher FFG
values in the Black Hills, the rugged granite topography could
still result in localized concerns given high runoff potential
(though this is, of course a lower potential than Niobrara to
Oglala-Lakota counties).

Forward propagation and northward shift of ideal divergence
support aloft toward the north should limit the longevity of the
developing cluster/complex over W SD toward 09z. However, there
is sufficient suggestion an isolated to widely scattered incident
or two of flash flooding remain possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6LkzvreNaOTS-prem_sXCx0Zkk-xzUtFcH6SegyMvUb7Z8Zhz6v3Gvqafd65GCjBJ3CsZ5PeftbxMK62xzZZ04gid-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45200321 45040221 44540172 43420146 42670245
42220331 41960435 42320488 43060483 44040477
44500449 44910396

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 07:36:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070735
FFGMPD
MTZ000-071300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1218
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...East Central Montana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070735Z - 071300Z

SUMMARY...Training/repeating cells along border with upstream
redevelopment due to approaching deep layer cyclone to support
strong cells capable of 1.5-2.5" in a few hours. Localized flash
flooding will be possible where training/repeating occurs.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite denotes core of closed upper-level
low is shifting out of WA/OR into ID with modest negative tilt
orientation across the Northern Intermountain region of SW MT/W WY
and is slightly out of phase with southwesterly flow shortwave
though in a favorable manner for large scale ascent/cyclogenesis
across the Northern High Plains. This shortwave exists in the
split of the inner polar jet over SE ID and stronger 90kt jet
streaming across WY, resulting in strong downstream dPVA over SE
MT and increased divergence/diffluence noted by lower layer
baroclinic shield over central MT (along/west of 110W). As such,
surface to 850mb cyclogenesis is well on it way across SE MT/NE WY
and a sharp inverted trough exists northward through NE MT; west
of which stronger northerly/north-northeasterly flow is
strengthening providing solid moisture flux with 1.25" TPW
increasingly toward 1.4" Rosebud/Yellowstone county along the
northwest side of the surface low.

Above average theta-E air still retains heating from this
afternoon and with some steepening lapse rates results in an axis
of 1500-2000 J/kg of capped MLCAPE. Weaker capping near the
Canadian border with initial moisture flux convergence in the
850-700mb layer has maintained scattered supercells that have
advanced eastward out of Blaine into Phillips county.
Intersection with the divergence aloft and increasingly low level
moisture flux has seen an broadening of updrafts and upscale
growth of the complex. Steering flow has also reduced the
eastward propagation enough for increasing residency of modest
1.25-1.5"/hr rates. Though isolated personal weather stations
suggest stronger instantaneous/sub-hourly totals, near 1"/30
minutes. Slowing steering will also allow for some repeating in
the near term, so localized 1.5-2" with an isolated 2.5" becoming
possible. Naturally low FFG values <1.5"/hr and <2"/3hrs have
good possibility of locally being exceeded with potential for
localized incident(s) of flash flooding possible in the next few
hours.

As the negative tilt and shortwave lift northward, stronger
convection is expected to develop (as noted with a few cells
breaking out in Sweet Grass/Stillwater counties). While faster
moving, deeper layer moisture convergence along the north-south
oriented boundary between the convective line along 850-700mb
effective frontal zone may promote some repeating from south to
north and while likely less effective than storms north, rates of
1-1.25" are possible and streaks of 1-2" may also be possible. As
such, have expanded the area of concern within the
instability/moisture axis west of the surface low and along the
axis of lower FFG values as points of isolated flooding concerns
as well through 12z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9lBN_xk125UwMxSHW9JLng5JMmbiRN5cCbnDuJxQUA1IE5B4C02ro0zoCeY20jRpyX6erZX1M_jUZp7cyb5x7uGP5QY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 49090858 49080748 49070525 48750537 47880609
46870676 45850801 45800955 46790892 47740867
48280873 49010881

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 08:26:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 070825
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-071300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1219
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Iowa...Extreme Southeast South
Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070825Z - 071300Z

SUMMARY...Near stationary over-running cells capable of 1-1.5"/hr
rates and highly focused 2-4" totals across areas of reduced FFG.
Localized flash flooding remains possible through early morning.

DISCUSSION...A narrow window of weak but sufficient isentropic
ascent has broken out elevated convection across the narrow stripe
of recently affected areas where FFG values remain well below
normal and less than <1.5"/hr and <2"/3hrs. GOES-E 10.3um and
3.9um SWIR IR loops combined with VWP out of FSD/OAX denote rapid
veering with westerly 700mb winds at 20kts from the west are
fairly orthogonal to the SSE to NNW surface to 850mb frontal zone
across eastern NEB resulting in convergence around or just below
the 700mb level with increase in congestus eventually blossoming
to a few CBs in NW IA with further weaker more scattered
convection further south into SW IA. The orientation of the
boundary also resides on the NE side of a 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE
(per RAP soundings) gradient that also aligns with the compromised
soil conditions. RAP CINH fields are still showing more CINH
further south and higher CAPE upstream into SE SD. A few TCu
exist there, but FFG values also rapidly increase across Yankton
to Miner counties; so have limited the areal extent for potential
additional flash flooding to those areas where FFG values remain
low.

Westerly winds are expected to remain but weaken slightly over the
next few hours, so most of the expected weakening past 12z will be
due to exhausting the remaining uncapped mid-level unstable air
upstream. With limited cell motion and inflow generally equal and
opposite to the mean steering from 700-400mb, cells are likely to
remain somewhat stationary with slight back-building possible. As
such, highly focused areas of 2-4" over the next 3-4 hours are
possible and given the low FFG, localized flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5AuluJELOiNKgJHhkLuDmYGQQYYT2KREQRaswtVzjlp2cp5rPo6q5o9GSihxSOpzYKRdV1BY51yaAY9K5FBMexEpEV8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43509698 43339595 42979523 42399451 41579402
40939447 41079541 42429639 43179712

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 15:20:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071519
FFGMPD
MTZ000-072115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1220
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...northwestern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071518Z - 072115Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northwestern MT over the next 6 hours as an additional
1-2 inches of rain fall atop areas that have received heavy rain
over the past few days. Hourly rainfall totals are expected to
peak over 0.5 inches through 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from 15Z showed a strong mid to
upper level low/trough advancing from north-central ID into
western MT. Out ahead of this feature was a west-east oriented
axis of heavy rain, noted on area radar imagery, with embedded
thunder, located from ~20 miles south of Cut Bank to ~40 miles
south of Havre. Gauge reports from within this axis of heavy rain
have shown 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain in and around Great Falls but
with much of that falling in about 15-30 minutes. The 12Z sounding
from TFX showed a precipitable water value of 1.01 inches, which
was near the climatological max for early September, but limited
MUCAPE of 235 J/kg. The strong dynamics corresponding to the upper
trough were making up for the lacking instability with left-exit
region upper level jet divergence and diffluence advancing through
west-central MT.

As the mid to upper-level low advances northeastward into
north-central MT through 21Z, weak elevated instability, locally
exceeding 500 J/kg, is forecast by the RAP to affect locations
from the northern Rockies into the upper Missouri Valley and the
U.S./Canadian border. A deformation axis is likely to become
better defined later this morning into the afternoon over
northwestern MT, containing stratiform moderate rain with embedded
cores of heavy rain and possible thunder.

Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches associated with the ongoing
northward moving axis of heavy rain over west-central MT will
continue to translate north over the next 2-3 hours while steady
moderate to heavy rain sets up to the west. Through the early
afternoon, additional pockets of heavy rain are expected into
parts of northwestern to north-central MT with hourly rainfall up
to ~0.5 inches and 6 hour totals in the 1 to 2 inch range.

Due to 1-3 inches of rainfall that has fallen over the past 2-3
days across portions of western MT, additional localized heavy
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches may result in localized areas of rapid rises/inundation within areas of sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9CB-_bNsgCH8GlcCqwCjEqMlm1oV3KE7knuXs1v5LTbEREl6Hp6W8aBQJRtW04uX3YK5OhqIEgdPSB6x-axAItGHkJs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49131247 49111025 49081007 48411002 48081041
47671219 47101316 47011386 47461491 48161548
48811547 49081533 49091529

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 19:32:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 071932
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1221
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071930Z - 080130Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood concerns across the terrain and
adjacent valley areas of eastern Arizona and the northern and
western area of New Mexico. Flashier dry river beds and remnant
burn scars are the main areas of concern. Rainfall rates upwards
of 1 inch per hour.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon destabilization across portions of the
Southwestern U.S. will allow for the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms over portions of AZ and NM. PWATs remain
elevated between 1.1-1.6" across the aforementioned areas with
instability fields becoming increasingly favorable as we move
through peak diurnal heating. Low shear, high SBCAPE on the order
of 1000-2500 J/kg across the region will provide a sufficient
environment for pulse convection and a few convective clusters
with the primary target over the eastern Mogollon Rim and the
terrain in-of western NM. Rainfall rates between 0.5-1"/hr in
stronger cells are forecast, but some intra-hour rates could
breach closer to 1.5"/hr which could provide more appreciable run
off capabilities as a result.

Primary concerns will be those flashier dry river beds and any
remnant burn scars over the area along with the typical urbanized
threats in towns across the area. HREF probs for >1" are modest
with the maxima (40-60%) located over west-central NM to the AZ
border where convection is currently developing. This correlates
with the progged higher SBCAPE location meaning some stronger cell
cores are possible during their maturation process.

Flash flood concerns will be isolated overall, but the threat
remains coincident with the MRGL risk ERO in place and solid
continuity of the threat in the recent CAMs.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4b3Pcn4Z7oyFJB3iUFwxYo_JhsS6JGmUGB89LKjjzv1fQJjCzgtiNpWZxYsAk-5uL-9rytOIJLLxTMZZ8BK48UBR0I8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36990520 36450450 35230648 34250701 33460741
32390828 31920856 31530919 31381058 31411115
31611226 31971295 33241165 34151127 35161081
35841016 36530889 36970761

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 01:31:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080130
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080728-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1222
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080128Z - 080728Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall likely across southeastern SD in the path
of a potent supercell likely to traverse the region. Rainfall
rates between 2 to 3 inches per hour are likely in the storms path
leading to scattered bouts of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Rapidly intensifying supercell ahead of a slowly
progressing warm front over the Plains will become a focal point
for heavy rainfall prospects over the southeastern area of SD into
the quad state region encompassing MN/IA/NE. Current mesoanalysis
points to a suitable thermodynamic environment and effective bulk
shear between 40-50kts suitable for sustaining a prominent
mesocyclone over the region for likely several hours until the
warm front progresses through the area. Recent trends have noted a
rapid intensification of the supercell in progress with rainfall
rates between 2-3"/hr as of the current obs.

Expectation is for heavy rain to focus within the path of the
supercell with a few more cells potentially developing over the
area due to increased forcing occurring from a shortwave ejection
out of the Front Range of WY. At the surface, the warm front will
slowly migrate eastward with the storms anchoring to the front in
question which will provide the necessary element to sustain an
abundant surface based forcing mechanism to keep cells
well-defined and lasting for several hours before dissipating.

Scattered flash flood concerns will last through the evening with
some guidance indicating lingering concerns into the early morning
hours. Rainfall totals between 2-4" with locally as high as 6" are
possible in the impacted area.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_t01qirNZ6reF2CK1S09fZ2ErkTTmJUfGvWn4yhR-6TfxQ8Xk3vzV9jXlIvBLSvP7M8u_TFKKC_tS54zHz5sIXaoDec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44099606 43619560 43079574 42809641 42679718
42549825 42699889 42999900 43539840 43779780
43939693

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 06:27:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080627
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-081200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1223
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...Northern Iowa...Southeast
South Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080630Z - 081200Z

SUMMARY...Low-end flash flooding potential continues with
additional upstream development and repeating environment with
broad area of 1-2" totals with enhanced stripes of 2-3" embedded.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows fairly straight southwesterly
upper-level 100-110kts jet core from N CO/S WY across the ND/MN
line though the jet is also quite diffluent on the southern side
of the jet with best divergence maxima near the SE/IA/MN line
which is just downshear of an embedded shortwave approaching from
central NEB. As such, the low level flow has responded with 850mb
speed max of 50kts starting to intersect with a stronger cluster
of cells. The interaction has broadened into a west to east warm
advection wing with additional deep layer convergence expanding
convective development downstream across the MN/IA boarder (noted
by overshooting tops in the broadening cirrus canopy with -75C
temps). Additionally, low level moisture has pooled due to this
convergence with overall values nearing 2".

A broader axis of conditionally unstable air is oriented more
north to south with core of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE across E NEB into NE
SD, though expanding eastward across S MN/N IA with sufficient
values 1250-1500 J/kg noted in RAP analysis to help maintain
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. Additional
upstream development across the Sand Hills of north-central NEB
near the shortwave will also lift into the western edge of the
ongoing convective area to repeat or potentially merge with
ongoing activity across SE SD. Scattered 1.75-2"/hr rates
embedded within the broader line of 1-1.5"/hr rates and generally
veered 700-400mb steering flow to support a broader area of
additional 1-2" totals with embedded streaks of 2-3" where
repeating/training or strongest cores could reside a bit longer.

Hydrologically, heavy rainfall over the last few days (including
heavy rainfall tonight over SE SD) have further reduced FFG values
across the area with an axis extending from Gregory/Charles Mix
county to NW IA with hourly FFG below 1.5" and 3hr below 2",
though this extends further across S MN/N IA with <2"/hr or
<2.5/3hrs as far east as Dodge/Mower, MN and Floyd county, IA.
As such, scattered incidents of localized flash flooding will
remain possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5THet9MGgR6pStNJWnP2g9OI2OMW2IpZoz62qTr0ueBsi9jjKyyqPxMFKtsKMatdKPDufiZ9vkq9kmKRxYYk5KyzGOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44259461 44169323 43579245 43139259 42809334
42599425 42499591 42509741 42699861 42959915
43419896 44019739 44169627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 20:50:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082049
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-090245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1224
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into NM and southeastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082047Z - 090245Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of southeastern AZ into NM and southeastern CO over the next 6
hours. Peak hourly rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected but
with 15 minute rainfall up to 1 inch within the stronger/slowest
moving cells.

DISCUSSION...2030Z visible satellite imagery and area radar
imagery showed scattered monsoonal convection underway across the
higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim into the elevated terrain of
far southeastern AZ into NM. Total PWs across AZ/NM were fairly
similar as of 20Z, compared to this same time yesterday, with
standardized anomalies of +1 to +2. SPC mesoanalysis from 20Z and
18Z soundings from EPZ and ABQ showed instability was primarily
focused from far southeastern AZ into southern and eastern NM with
500 to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. The synoptic scale mid to upper-level
ridge was centered over KS/MO with the southwestern extension
across south-central AZ/NM, a bit north compared to yesterday at
this time, resulting in a broader coverage of weak deeper layer
mean flow of ~10 kt or less across NM/AZ.

Some minor westward expansion of the 500+ J/kg MLCAPE line is
expected over the next few hours with continued daytime heating
beneath mostly clear skies. Thunderstorm development will continue
to expand along areas of higher terrain before moving into some of
the lower elevations, driven by the mean steering flow and outflow
propagation from storm clusters that develop.

While an evolution similar to Monday is expected due to the fairly
similar parameters in place, locally greater coverage of 1+ inch
rainfall will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains into the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains due to weak steering currents
oriented parallel to the terrain and weakly backed low level flow
over eastern to southeastern NM. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is
expected within the stronger cores along with potential for 15
minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches. Any flash flooding that
occurs is expected to be isolated in coverage with impacts to low
water crossings, arroyos and locations of poor drainage. Spotty
total rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with isolated 2+
inch totals possible through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7zS6Zm3gDfXshvtrpaz2BQ44zrWIOjy9mMZsQS4uyf58LHJV53ULlYylbaiJxoKiHASanANWJHMG5fpiUgyZRW0EVSw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37620374 37620296 37590229 37160210 36690301
35610408 34730484 32980542 31680647 31180795
31170899 31140991 31191047 31361105 31931111
32541082 33151054 33681029 34120989 34290919
34600848 35190771 35830706 36460624 37070564
37430503 37570444

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 22:59:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082258
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-090455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1225
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
657 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...eastern NE into IA and southwestern
WI/northwestern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082256Z - 090455Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is expected to become likely across
portions of central IA this evening into early tonight, with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and 6-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches
(isolated higher rates/totals possible). Surrounding locations of
eastern NE into southwestern WI and northwestern IL may also
experience flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...2230Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed
scattered thunderstorms extending along a surface
trough/differential heating boundary that extended from central IA
into southeastern NE, located southeast of a larger scale
quasi-stationary front. Outflow was observed to be slowly
propagating southward/southeastward across southeastern NE into
southwestern IA. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms were located
north of this region from eastern NE into north-central IA. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg
along and just south of the trough/differential heating boundary
along with a bubble of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE in south-central IA.

Short term forecasts from the RAP suggest that the low level jet
will begin to increase across eastern KS into northwestern
MO/southern IA around 00Z, with S to SSW 850 mb wind speeds
expected to reach 30-40 kt by 04Z. The increasing overrunning
component of the low level flow will support the continued
development of nocturnal thunderstorms from eastern NE into
central IA and downstream locations of WI/IL. Storm motions are
expected to parallel an axis of low level convergence, supporting
training rounds of heavy rain, containing hourly rainfall of 1 to
2+ inches.

Portions of western IA have received 3 to 6+ inches of rain over
the past 2-3 days which has increased soil moisture values and
reduced infiltration capabilities of additional heavy rainfall.
Flash flood guidance (FFG) for this portion of IA was 1.5 to 2.5
inches in 3 hours with surrounding areas to the west and east
containing 3-hr FFG values of about 2-3 inches. While the location
of the southern-most overrunning boundary and low level jet
orientation may focus the heaviest rainfall east of the lower FFG
values of western IA, the setup still appears likely to favor
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding later tonight.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7U2woauqqyLtW7aizDxlTOhuQ-cobZUhT-eKY6wyhN1u8NlZX7FKwjxqGvzK4ddY0XxEPPftN5DUwPTdlxjnR_e_uk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...GID...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43309046 43238981 42758932 42208956 41668991
40979173 40589522 40769728 41389776 41889745
42279616 42529425 43019188

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 00:45:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090044
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-090635-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1226
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090042Z - 090635Z

SUMMARY...Brief training and hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches may
result in isolated flash flooding from portions of eastern CO into
western KS through 06Z.

DISCUSSION...Infrared satellite and radar imagery from KPUX showed
showers and thunderstorms moving east off of the central Rockies
into the High Plains as of 0020Z with the strongest region across
northern Pueblo County with cloud tops that continued to expand
and cool. 00Z surface observations showed southeastern to eastern
CO was in a post-frontal environment with easterly/upslope flow in
place. KPUX VAD wind and RAP analysis data showed that the
easterly winds of 10-20 kt extended up 4-5 kft above the surface,
veering toward a unidirectional WSW direction in the mid to upper
levels.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 00Z showed MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg from
southeastern CO into western KS (highest to east) but with at
least weak CIN over the entire region. However, as
showers/thunderstorms continue to advance farther east into the
High Plains, moistening of lower level profiles within the upslope
flow may help the development of pockets of uninhibited elevated
instability across portions of eastern CO into western KS.
Kinematic profiles suggest that individual cells and/or any
clustering of storms should translate eastward at a progressive
pace. However, there is some potential for convective development
out ahead of any thunderstorm activity advancing eastward through
southeastern CO, setting up potential for short term training. The
environment will be capable of 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall and
the isolated potential for 2-3 inch totals. Given the fairly low
flash flood guidance values of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours over
much of eastern CO into western KS, an isolated exceedance or two
may occur through about 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Vy-o45OKAmKHm1RHLCH4MbdLH-5WHCqc4nEayHTq1fmntn6iz2S2eYRcijVdhWxFbiV8GcRZRet95GrwwoQMKSAaig$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39360165 39120132 38650129 38060186 37750255
37540372 37560471 37980513 38430512 38750482
39050409 39350269

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 04:52:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090452
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-091030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1227
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southern Iowa...Northwest
Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090450Z - 091030Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding potential continues. New
upstream development shows potential for repeating across areas
recently affected with additional 2-3" totals. Leading edge,
higher rates may still pose localized risk due to higher 2"/hr
rates.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR shows elongated convective complex
across much of Iowa, with leading bow echo near a meso-low along
the Mississippi River southwest of the Quad Cities remains fairly
potential with strong moisture flux convergence helping to broaden
the width of the bow for increased overall duration while it still
remains forward propagating. However, it is starting to move into
a more stable regime over N IL where inflow is less humid/unstable
with lower 60s Tds likely to be fed into the complex. Still a
hour or so more of 1.5-2"/hr rates may result in localized urban
flooding concerns. However, the upstream environment remains
conditionally unstable with solid isentropic ascent pattern for
continued development.

However, much of the environment has stabilized, there does remain
some increased unstable air between frontal zones across southern
NEB and through IA which is intersected by a north-south axis of
500-1000 J/kg of CAPE across western MO along an older frontal
zone, with total PWats over 2". CIRA LPW shows most of this area
as the enhanced moisture stream connected to the Pacific
sub-tropics along the northwest edge of the larger scale ridge
with very high moisture denoted in the 700-500mb layer along with
surface to 850mb showing higher values (Tds in the low to mid
70s). However, south of the front lower Tds and a wedge of drier
air can be seen through the 850-700 and 700-500mb across SE KS
through KC Metro toward N MO; so though stronger confluent 850mb
flow is the driver of isentropic ascent there may be some negative
dry air entrainment into the cells. This may be the reason for
the more stringy/tendril appearance to the convective cells across
W IA. Still, the length of the axis with embedded stronger cores
in an ideal training (west to east) environment with strong
southwest to southerly deep layer convergence should still
maintain the scattered ascent pattern with repeating elements
across S IA to be expected. Overall rates given some of the dry
air entrainment may be a bit more limited than seen earlier with
the initial line, but scattered 1.25-1.5" streaks and 1-3 hours of
repeating across areas having received 1-3" may start to exceed
the longer 3-6 hr FFG values which are 2-3" or 3-4", respectively.
As such, localized flash flooding may be possible but likely
limited in overall areal coverage and be more widely scattered in
nature through early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_QVqTvHVVyVCfZXYPqai_9cP5lpo54kumZvFOfXYHSySz5S9-vtkaylP9ioM_P65MEnN6CZW4TeDnzgbtU-yAlLJJwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42149161 42089051 41858979 41418965 40998998
40649070 40589212 40599417 40629568 40719654
41069691 41559656 41829554 41929443 42059296
42109232 42109202

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 09:27:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090927
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1228
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southern Iowa...Northern Missouri...Northwest Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090930Z - 091500Z

SUMMARY...Repeating scattered shallow thunderstorms with ability
for 1.5"/hr and additional 1.5-2.5" totals continue to pose
possible isolated to widely scattered low-end flash flooding,
mainly as cells move into areas less affected further south.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um WV suite continues to show a persistent
WSW to ENE corridor of enhanced deep layer moisture along the
northwest edge of synoptic ridge that dominates the
Mid-Mississippi and Southeast. Additionally, a northern stream
shortwave is digging through the Dakotas with an attendant cold
front through MN to NW IA into Nebaska; further narrowing/
corralling the deep layer moisture axis. RAP analysis and GPS
data shows core of 2-2.25" total PWATs remain over SE NEB into W
IA though localized profiles and CIRA LPW continue to show a core
of drier air along the SW interface of the subtropical moisture
plume from E KS toward NE MO. Still, strong confluent low level
jet from 30-40kts from 850-700mb continues to support isentropic
ascent and upstream convergence for upstream redevelopment, though
there are some hints that 700mb winds are veering a bit further
suggesting eastward motion of the is redevelopment region may be
expected over the next few hours.

The upwind environment also appears to have retained some unmixed, conditionally unstable air with axis of 750-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
generally coincident with moisture axis. Some air appears to be
overturning with new scattered development over far SE NEB into SW South-central IA with new scattered/cooling tops noted in 10.3um
EIR imagery. This is similar along the main training axis further
north over E NEB into W IA, though coverage is more scattered in
nature than earlier overnight. Downstream the lack of remaining
instability due to multiple rounds appears to be leading to
general warming and broadening of more moderate shield
precipitation across central to E IA, though regional RADAR shows
some stronger bowing segments into SE IA. As such, rain rates
will be further reducing to 1-1.3"/hr with a few occasional
transient spots of 1.5"+/hr possible.

As such, a streak or two of 1.5-2.5" in 2-3 hours will remain
possible. This may still intersect the recently saturated/flooded
areas along and just south of I-80 though trends suggest the best
remaining instability and moisture convergence would be a county
or two south where higher FFG and drier ground conditions exist
more likely resulting in beneficial rains. However, any
intersection with more saturated areas, including from prior days
(SW IA into far NW MO) still present a low-end potential of
exceedance for isolated to widely scattered but localized
incidents of flash flooding through early daybreak.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8YVkdUHPERZ1bzOAcjyjTWEf6SK_TRgaXU6hp4HKgP5dv3PzI7djKmcuAxgr6ZlqOKNEhh9rYrgN-GhcjkDBZJvdO90$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41809129 41649010 41258940 40718947 40269033
40139239 40099431 40079643 40209714 40949713
41319524 41589347 41749205

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 20:34:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092034
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-100230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1229
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into NM and adjacent High Plains
of CO, OK, TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092031Z - 100230Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms may result in a few areas of
flash flooding from portions of southeastern AZ into NM and the
adjacent High Plains of CO, OK and TX through the early evening.
Peak hourly rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and 15-minute rain rates
of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...2010Z visible satellite imagery and area radar
imagery showed scattered thunderstorms over the southern Colorado
Plateau from eastern AZ into central NM as well as the southern
Rockies down to the Sacramento Mountains. Water vapor imagery
showed an elongated mid to upper-level ridge over the southern
tier of the U.S. containing two centers, one of which was centered
over eastern AZ into western NM. RAP analysis data showed 850-300
mb mean layer winds of less than 5 kt beneath the ridge center
with less than 10 kt elsewhere across much of AZ/NM, supportive of
slow cell movement. Blended TPW imagery showed that precipitable
water values were similar to a couple of tenths of an inch higher
compared to 24 hours ago (especially over central NM and
southwestern AZ), translating into standardized anomalies of +1 to
+2.5 for the region. SPC mesoanalyses and 18Z soundings from EPZ,
ABQ and FGZ showed MLCAPE was a little bit higher than 24 hours
ago, with greater coverage of 500 to 1000 J/kg from northeastern
to southwestern NM into parts of southern AZ.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to blossom across the higher
terrain over the next couple of hours with slow cell movement
following the deeper layer mean flow. Short term forecasts show
the ridge center sliding westward later today into western AZ as a
shortwave advances southeastward across the northern Great Basin
into the central Rockies. This ridge orientation is expected to
shift the steering flow to more of a northerly direction along the
AZ/NM border with northeasterly to easterly flow across
southeastern AZ.

Increasing storm coverage should allow for congealing of storms
into a few quasi-organized clusters with outflow advancing and
initiating new development of cells. Expectations are for monsoon
activity to advance into southern NM/southeastern AZ beyond 00Z
while lingering into portions of northeastern NM, with dissipation
over the Colorado Plateau. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected with 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches (locally
higher), supporting the potential for localized flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!85IsKGvsLxswHzEA_XFYPFs46i0temSJsuL1hfFdc3He56QY6FPlbQXQk12pTroMx3mA58Nj9RWqA62nIF93BP8csm8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37270381 36920229 36500204 35790237 35160317
34750418 34010490 32610534 31960555 31370630
31500754 31460797 31080810 31020858 30951086
31121161 32071173 33631130 34111055 34760885
35810683 36970534

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 22:02:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092201
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-100355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1230
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...eastern OH, far northern WV, western PA into
central NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092158Z - 100355Z

SUMMARY...As a broken axis of thunderstorms advances southeastward
through OH/WV/PA/NY, embedded short term training may result in a
few areas of flash flooding through 04Z (midnight EDT). Peak
hourly rainfall is generally expected to range from 1 to 2 inches,
although hourly totals above 2 inches will be possible should
ideal training materialize.

DISCUSSION...2130Z radar imagery showed a broken axis of
thunderstorms extending from north-central OH into northwestern PA
and western NY, advancing toward the southeast into an unstable
airmass containing 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (via 21Z SPC mesoanalysis
data). The storms were located just ahead of a pre-frontal
convergence axis positioned well ahead of a cold front over Lower
Michigan. Moisture across OH into western NY was anomalous (2-3
standard deviations above the mean) with precipitable water values
ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches (via the latest GPS data). The high
moisture has resulted in observed 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches to the south of Medina, OH between 2030Z and 2130Z.
However, the progression of cells has limited total rainfall to
less than 1.5 inches thus far.

While the 12Z HREF and rapidly updating HRRR/RRFS model data
hasn't had a good handle on the timing/placement of storms as of
21Z, there is good model agreement for the evolution and
progression of storms to advance southeastward through OH,
northern WV, PA and western/central NY within the available
instability axis. Sufficient bulk shear/instability values across
the region could support organized cells but both ordinary to
right-moving supercell vectors are progressive from the west to
northwest at 20-40 kt.

The concern for flash flooding arises as storms likely continue to
expand and advance downstream. Outflow propagation out ahead of
the broken axis of storms could allow for brief alignment with the
mean steering flow, supporting short term training of cells and
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. An isolated instance of 2+ inches
of rain in an hour will also be possible. The result will be
pockets of total rainfall between 1 to 3 inches through 04Z with
the potential for flash flooding across areas of sensitive terrain
or urban areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!65rb_Bt4ALIMhED6Q_0Y2sfb1rJrwHVuKR35JqSD7ktb_PDgc2N-jGVd24sko1lThm10PIzH8i2h8WPaowoddn7D1fY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43127584 42827485 41977505 40697781 39917967
39298152 39388383 40188414 40998258 41948067
42667873 42967753

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 23:02:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092302
FFGMPD
CAZ000-100400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1231
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092300Z - 100400Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding may develop along portions of
the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA into the
southern Sierra Nevada through this evening. Peak hourly rainfall
over 1 inch will be possible with 1-2 inch totals through 04Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES West visible imagery and regional radar
reflectivity as of 2240Z showed isolated showers/thunderstorms
over eastern Tulare County of the Sierra Nevada and along the
Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, with attempts at additional
development with areas of towering cumulus. The environment across
southern CA contained highly anomalous moisture with the 12Z
soundings from NKX and VBG showing precipitable water values at or
above the SPC climatological max for early September. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE of approximately 500-1000
J/kg over Orange, San Diego and western Riverside counties with
lower values of near 100-250 J/kg into Ventura County where a pair
of backbuilding cells was located.

While forcing is weak, outside of the elevated heat sources of the
mountains, southern CA's placement beneath the western edge of a
mid to upper-level ridge has resulted in very slow cell motions of
about 5 kt. With still some time for daytime heating, additional shower/thunderstorm development will be possible over the next
couple of hours with potential for peak hourly rainfall over 1
inch and totals of 1-2 inches from the southern Sierra Nevada into
the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges. Any cells are expected to
remain isolated to terrain features.

Most of the CAM guidance suite has had a good handle on the
ongoing activity but the coverage of heavy rain due to isolated thunderstorms/showers should remain low. However, within the lower
coverage of storms, there will be some limited potential for
hourly rainfall in excess of 1 inch and isolated flash flooding
potential. The loss of daytime heating after sunset should allow
any ongoing storms to rapidly dissipate.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4i2SwFimSURq6RuZGKc1xyuEOt81tNlJ6AJHLr0zvrQ4ifL96NpF8RaArEeWCBS-oHTwBe9hb_ZDgITpHdSsW6eyP98$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36831824 36611802 35811797 35441817 35191827
35041842 34921846 34811839 34751822 34701798
34641776 34571746 34541721 34491696 34451679
34381655 34331635 34261609 34111584 34001565
33861555 33761554 33691567 33691587 33771603
33861627 33861638 33771644 33631641 33471626
33331620 33201620 33041607 32971604 32711600
32601607 32531635 32521653 32581661 32901677
33311699 33551712 33851708 33951709 34061716
34111733 34121768 34181794 34241815 34331842
34411865 34431894 34461922 34521943 34601960
34671966 34801965 34901953 34961936 35001913
35021879 35291858 35651847 36261847 36491855
36761850

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 02:03:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100202
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-100800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1232
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Ohio Valley & Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100200Z - 100800Z

Summary...A band of showers and thunderstorms continues sagging
southward into the Ohio Valley. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding across partially saturated soils and rough topography.

Discussion...A line of showers and thunderstorms extends from
southeast IN into southwest PA with another segment with heavier
rainfall across north-central PA. Precipitable water values are
1.6-2.1" in this area per GPS data. CIN has set in and MUCAPE
across the region is 500+ J/kg in eastern areas and 2000+ J/kg in
western areas. Effective bulk shear of 30-45 kts has been
organizing convection. The thunderstorms lie within a confluent
zone/elevated front.

The guidance suggests that the thunderstorm activity should have
some longevity, particularly within areas with higher instability
which will take longer to erode closer to the central Ohio Valley.
Based on the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which would be more problematic
in the areas of lower flash flood guidance values across the Upper
OH Valley, which based on the mesoscale guidance would be sooner
rather than later. Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is
possible here.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_dTimXZPLePPP92jwhIjQvU5haqyEFNxElFhjg4F9AKl5FrrEEBQvsnEiiN8RehwyjQOEsl5Vxb5D6QnZMmFHcootec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40747967 40377843 38628060 37808569 39158559
39638338 40248131

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 02:11:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100211
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-100615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1233
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1010 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...far western TX into southwestern NM into
southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100209Z - 100615Z

SUMMARY...Lingering monsoon convection will maintain a localized
flash flood threat across portions of far western TX into
southwestern NM and southeastern AZ for another 3-4 hours. High
sub-hourly rain rates will produce isolated additional totals of 1
to 2 inches.

DISCUSSION...0150Z GOES infrared satellite and GLM imagery showed
scattered thunderstorms advancing south across southwestern NM and
WSW over southeastern AZ. Lingering instability of 500 to 1000
J/kg (locally higher as seen on the 00Z EPZ sounding) was located
from western TX into southwestern NM and portions of southeastern
AZ. The storms were moving generally south to southwest following
the deeper layer mean flow around a mid to upper level ridge
centered over west-central AZ. Cell motions were also following
outflow progression, as noted in western Cochise into eastern
Pima/Santa Cruz counties where 15-minute rainfall rates of 0.5 to
1.0 inches have been observed.

Expectations are for storms to continue advancing downstream
(west-southwest to southwest across southeastern AZ and southward
in NM) over the next few hours with localized high sub-hourly rain
rates. The available moisture (1.3 to 1.7 inch PWs per recent GPS
data) will continue to support localized 15-minute rainfall of 0.5
to 1.0 inches and isolated storm totals of 1 to 2 inches. These
higher rates may result in flooding of low lying and urban areas,
as well as other locations of poor drainage. Beyond 06Z, the flash
flood threat is expected to diminish due to a loss of instability
and/or translation of storms into Mexico.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4MBYep6csdfLkT20s-gcPSSrBUQWs6W1FKuOKDTXwshl4wOb3KzxAdmLj312m2Vd0EQ3VIYc8Ep-4BU4fOet0zA9dV8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33981082 33521038 33150975 32580939 32320879
32390831 32740744 32800707 32720657 32350573
31960541 31150579 31580683 31570783 31180804
31090867 31090952 31131083 31201136 31781164
32841163 33561147 33871121

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 02:58:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100258
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-100856-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1234
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...in and near portions of southeast CO & southwest
KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100256Z - 100856Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are slowly developing across
the area. Hourly rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could
lead to isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...A substantial shortwave in the Westerlies is moving
through western WY & northwest CO at the present time, enhancing
upper level divergence in the Central High Plains. Meanwhile,
low-level upslope flow has brought precipitable water values up to
1.5-2", which is quite high for the High Plains. MU CAPE is ~2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25-35 kts. The mean 850-400 hPa
wind is out of the west at 5-10 kt, nearly antiparallel to the
current east-northeast surface flow. Thus far, the thunderstorms
that have been occasionally reorganizing and showing minimal
movement just north of a thermal boundary and east of a surface
wave, likely due to the conflicting winds with height.

The expectation is for cells to continue growing in coverage and
track eastward as the 700 hPa winds veer and the upper level
shortwave progresses. The mass of thunderstorms may drift
somewhat northward as the 700 hPa flow takes on more of a
southerly component. Given the parameters in place, hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible where cells
backbuild, train, or merge. Given the modest flash flood guidance
values, isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8dU3iENX6-Y-Z-DPMSnBTS_Ly5nHOLs1xA1Ma9ek9PURs5WYIxAZGIn1bykm-KFe2qgUqKN8OT8bqp_S-nNg_-kizCI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38640235 38190015 36849988 37170251 37160400
38330462

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 04:04:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100404
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-101002-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1235
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Central Plains Into the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100402Z - 101002Z

Summary...Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
regionally into early Thursday morning. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Pockets of showers and thunderstorms have been moving
across MO, dropping local 2-5" of rain Wednesday afternoon and
evening. New thunderstorm activity has formed as of late back
across central and eastern KS. Regionally, there is a broad 850
hPa confluence zone/front aloft helping to lead to the convection.
Precipitable water values are 2-2.25". MU CAPE is 1000-2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25-45 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS guidance indicates thunderstorms across MO
escape into northern KY, southern IL, and southern IN with time
while the KS activity broadens in scale and moves into MO.
Earlier heavy rainfall has lowered the three hour flash flood
guidance near the KS/MO border though values are moderate to high
elsewhere. The ingredients available support the idea of hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local totals to 4" being
possible. This would be where cell mergers, mesocyclones, or cell
training occurs. Areas with some soil saturation from earlier
today and urban areas would be most at risk for flash flooding.
Flash flood occurrences could be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4jCA4EqyHnfJxEJzWCpy4_xLF8bqAvxnCwiyrqXClHzj-7BM0tnS4Yvq2qaJZDX76N0OzedJUaO1vLwRjjPlzIXdCtg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...OUN... PAH...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39949231 38978724 37638661 37318930 37159179
37649340 36369532 36089703 37679963 39009691

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 07:09:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100709
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-101307-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1236
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100707Z - 101307Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue
across southern OH while other thunderstorms approach from
southern IL. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local
totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Partially surface-based thunderstorms have shown some
backbuilding and training character across southern OH as they
feed off a 1000+ J/kg MU CAPE pool near the tri-state border of
OH/IN/KY. Recent radar estimates were near 6" between Waverly
City and Jackson OH. Additional thunderstorms have been forming
as of late across north-central KY while an additional batch moves
in from southern IL. This is occurring within a zone of 850 hPa
confluence. Precipitable water values are 1.7-2.3" per GPS data.
Effective bulk shear remains 25-40 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS guidance were a county or two too far north with
the convection in southern OH and an hour too slow with the
activity moving across southern IL. The expectation is for
thunderstorm activity to try to bridge between these two
convective areas -- backbuilding from the east and progressing
from the west -- with the merged areas eventually dropping south
as the instability pool near the tri-state border erodes. It
appears the REFS has a better concept of this idea than the HREF
though it's probably a little too far north. In the meantime,
hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and additional local totals to 4" are
possible, which could lead to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding, particularly in urban areas and locations with relief in
WV.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9hsTWgOsR3v3BaC29V0lg6qg8s-mz0XiWcktLH1E5s1O13qnv--g_iAZSMcKBVPBlkCkRByg6NK0WiAJo9nCMVKwUDY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39488308 39208144 38578011 37908098 37588255
37248538 37638925 38748905 38998779 38868600

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 08:25:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100825
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-101423-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1237
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...in and near KS & MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100823Z - 101423Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to
persist past sunrise. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional
local totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding where soils are saturating and in urban areas.

Discussion...A couple batches of thunderstorms lurk near the
southern border of CO/KS and from southeast KS into western MO.
These storms are near a confluence zone at 850 hPa, generally
elevated over a surface thermal boundary stretching near the 37th
parallel near the KS/OK and MO/AR borders. Rainfall over the past
28 hours is estimated as high as 8" near Mound City KS per doppler
radar, implying saturating soils. Precipitable water values range
from 1.5" in the Central High Plains to 2-2.5" farther east closer
to sea level. Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts. MU CAPE is
roughly 1000-2000 J/kg.

The mesoscale guidance suggests that both batches of convection
should persist past sunrise, with the CO/KS area dropping
east-southeast into northern OK while the KS/western MO activity
edges southward, making minimal eastward progress as a hole in the
instability pool across portions of MO broadens due to convection
increasing stability with time. Hourly rainfall amounts to 2.5"
with additional local totals to 4" are possible where mesocyclones
form, cell training occurs, and cell mergers happen. Flash flood
guidance continues to lower over portions of MO due to slowly
saturating soils. Widely scattered instances of flash flooding
are possible where soils are saturating and urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5BypAErjoJ57U3gcoQwyt1iIhHJQcBMlQbU3VZltj0vJLi-m2Y9SD-h2ovnT7o5DChzfA-iYgOjONOWbhDLG2ImZF-I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...GLD...ICT...LSX...OUN...PAH... PUB...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39629195 38919000 38298950 37938984 37449243
35319656 36590118 37000242 37370321 37970332
38660253 38800205 38420060 38209962 38239844
38539749 39079561 39619361

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 08:54:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100854
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101452-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1238
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100852Z - 101452Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are forming near and offshore
the coasts of southeast LA, MS, AL, and the western FL Panhandle.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding, primarily in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low was spotted on GOES-19 imagery
offshore Galveston TX, while an upper level shear line was
apparent over southernmost AL and southern MS. A surface
circulation was apparent in the oil rig observations to the
south-southeast of Galliano LA. CIN has been eroding across the
region over the past several hours. Precipitable water values are
2-2.2" per GPS data. The Central Gulf Coast lies in an
instability gradient north of the warm Gulf, with an ML CAPE
bubble of 3000 J/kg offshore southeast LA. Effective bulk shear
of 25 kts is not far away to the northwest of Lake Pontchartrain.

A zone of 850 hPa confluence is expected to remain near the
Central Gulf Coast over the next six hours. The mesoscale
guidance signal for heavy rain shifts westward from near
Pensacola, where some thunderstorms recently went inland, along
the AL and MS coasts to Southeast LA by 11z. Thunderstorms moving
inland should sharpen the instability gradient to the immediate
coast/swamp margin over time. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible where cells merge or manage to train. Urban areas would
be most sensitive to the incoming heavy rainfall. Flash flooding
instances are expected to be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!711Y8Qqkwogr24OKlxi61AkyHaOOVoA63NLteF2KMmDapYsEUhcH6fq6eKw_FhMKQB0cjYbynECB5bDyH90bZuRo8gI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30958862 30958706 30358630 30098779 30068855
29568890 29318895 28878902 28958941 29188970
29009032 29169040 29089078 29239121 30109076
30539017

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 12:51:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101250
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-101700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1239
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern KY...Southern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101249Z - 101700Z

SUMMARY...Additional broken areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected this morning. A generally localized
threat for flash flooding will continue.

DISCUSSION...The mid-morning radar and satellite imagery shows
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing across
portions of the OH Valley, with some of the more organized
activity and colder convective tops situated across north-central
to northeast KY and into south-central WV. This activity is
associated with a series of smaller-scale vorts that are still
interacting with a moist and relatively unstable airmass across
the broader OH Valley region.

MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are still in place with PWs of
1.75 to 2.0 inches. The moisture and instability transport is
still being aided by a westerly low-level jet of 30+ kts, and this
broader warm air advection along with fairly stronger convergence
still focused along the leading outflow boundary activity should
still tend to help focus some localized persistence of convection
through the midday hours.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5 inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and some additional localized storm totals of
2 to 3 inches will be possible. This activity will mostly be south
of the overnight/early morning activity that impacted southeast OH
and into parts of western WV, but the additional rainfall in the
short-term should tend to be aligned across areas of central and
eastern KY and into southern WV.

The FFG values acros these areas are a bit higher, with less soil moisture/streamflow sensitivities right now by comparison, but
with the locally repeated nature of some of the convection and
some of the rugged terrain, a localized threat of flash flooding
will exist through midday.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4x3AHFq7RW9kHyO0nNu8T2DlD5rHX84LjtWXbCiI_NMfMNkoDbnodh4NuoC8Qcs5NlCOkJLT3JwT1HlzrkQND511LA4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38698178 38578068 38238021 37828028 37528085
37278217 37148344 37218491 37538555 38028543
38398487 38648344

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 23:07:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 102307
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102304Z - 110400Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving into an area
of compromised soils due to recent heavy rain may result in areas
of renewed flash flooding through early tonight across portions of
the upper OH Valley. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...2245Z radar imagery showed a recent uptick in the
intensity of rainfall across the southern third of OH into central
WV. These storms were occurring within weakly confluent low level
flow, located out ahead of a west-east oriented cold front to the
north. Blended TPW imagery showed an axis of anomalous
precipitable water values extending through the OH Valley with
values of 1.7 to 2.0 inches reaching back into the middle MS
Valley. MLCAPE over the upper OH Valley was estimated to be weak,
only 500-1000 J/kg per recent SPC and RAP mesoanalysis data but
the high moisture will help to compensate for the weak instability
to support hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches.

Portions of northeastern KY into southern/eastern OH and western
PA/WV received 3 to 6+ inches of rain over the past 24 hours which
has broadly lowered flash flood guidance values for the region to
about 1 in/hr. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible
where cells align with the mean westerly steering flow, supporting
at least brief periods of training. A few embedded pockets of
heavy rain from efficient showers/thunderstorms will likely
continue to affect portions of the upper OH Valley over the next
few hours with RAP forecasts showing the weakly confluent flow in
the lower levels (and instability) translating south with time.
Augmenting larger scale ascent will be the right entrance region
of a departing upper level jet max over southern Ontario. While
coverage of heavy rain may be limited in coverage, the recent
heavy rain and sensitive terrain of the region raises enough of a
concern to highlight the increased flash flood potential over the
next 3-5 hours. Isolated storm totals up to ~3 inches will be
possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_0uqfvapiomYXyV1OSs90MxqWhTiF2w-8RJIVmdb3cN_krLo8o0UTjlOrdnWPGbM8tnIQn28tJ4ehtMlPPE0jy1sV-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40528111 40327951 38678026 38238348 38458455
39368461 39748316

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 01:22:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110122
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-110700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1242
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
921 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...AR into portions of the MS Valley into western
KY/northwestern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110120Z - 110700Z

SUMMARY...Through 07Z, increasing thunderstorm coverage is
expected to lead to increased flash flood potential from AR into
portions of the lower/middle MS Valley into western KY and
northwestern TN. Training of heavy rain is expected to lead to
hourly totals of 1 to 2 inches along with 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals through 07Z (isolated higher rates/totals possible).

DISCUSSION...01Z surface observations showed an effective frontal
boundary that extended from the eastern KY/TN border into western
TN, central AR and southeastern OK. This boundary was largely
outflow driven from afternoon/evening storms with temperatures in
the upper 80s/lower 90s to its south, with 70s and 80s to its
north. Water vapor imagery showed a positively tilted mid/upper
shortwave trough from northeastern KS into the TX Panhandle,
amplifying and advancing eastward. The region from AR into
northwestern TN and western KY contained high precipitable water
values of 1.7 to 2.1 inches per recent blended TPW imagery and 00Z
soundings from LZK and ILN. Instability was mixed across the
region with 500 to 2000+ J/kg and inhibition also varied (per SPC mesoanalysis).

As the upstream shortwave approaches over the next 3-6 hours, the
low level response at 850 mb will be for increasing southerly to
southwesterly winds of about 10 to 20 kt from southeastern OK into
TN/KY. Overrunning of the effective front is expected to support
low level moisture advection, a reduction of CIN and the
increasing coverage of thunderstorms overnight with mean steering
flow oriented similarly to the orientation of the front. Lift is
expected to be augmented within the right entrance region of a
modest upper level jet max to the north. Due to the anomalous
moisture in place, training cells should easily support hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated values above 2 inches in
an hour possible.

Most of the region has lacked notable rainfall over the past week
(at least a week) with fairly high flash flood guidance values of
about 3 to 4+ inches in 3 hours. Therefore, should flash flooding
develop overnight, areas will likely be confined to urban areas or
other locations of poor drainage. 6-hour rainfall totals of 2 to
4+ inches are expected through ~07Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7hvxp37WX8bQSef69jOzFaJ0W2QhOu9F9sb1WKTLAdtjAJqjI4VMPDDFfG7fKXPZv6ElGl9yUNI5qq0z1LUMaWT4imM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37828696 37578627 36868571 36378566 35938652
35149093 34869398 35039449 35739455 36309359
37019146 37488955 37818807

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 03:29:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110328
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-110826-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1243
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1127 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110326Z - 110826Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding
over partially saturated soils near the OH/WV/KY border towards
09z. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" remain possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue in the vicinity of
a declining instability pool across portions of southern OH and WV
within a zone of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values of
1.8-2.1" exist here per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of 40 kts
is leading to some level of organization. Activity continues to
be surface-based; ML CAPE across eastern KY and southwest WV is
500-1000 J/kg.

The guidance shows a signal for heavy rainfall in this region
towards 09z. Portions of the area have seen local maxima in the
6-9" range since Wednesday afternoon, at least partially
saturating area soils. With the available ingredients supporting
hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" where cells can manage to train
and/or backbuild, flash flooding remains possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6fExhWYNgp3aGXYLjf3_wwXtxqvi72tXnhLR7lvwTzYfGFOtSa4601_7whkeFtTI58qKMzvuW_QH8xm76sIstYsOfyk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448249 39107963 38238023 37758100 37488338
38218425 39268460

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 06:41:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110558
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-111156-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1244
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
156 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...northern AR into central KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110556Z - 111156Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms could lead to isolated flash
flooding concerns between northern AR and central KY through 12z.
Hourly amounts to 2.5" are possible where cells train or merge.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
stream across northern AR, northwest TN, and portions of central
KY. They are occurring within a region of 850 hPa confluence,
near and downstream of a region of 1000-2000 J/kg MU CAPE.
Precipitable water values of 1.8-2.1" were sampled by GPS data.
Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts.

With time, RAP guidance indicates that the degree of 850 hPa
confluence should lessen as winds at that level decrease, which
should cause a corresponding decrease in effective bulk shear.
With time, instability should lower somewhat more as well. The
mesoscale guidance shows the greatest persistence of heavy
rainfall in and near portions of AR through the period, with heavy
rain concerns near the TN/KY border fading over the next few
hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible wherever cells
can train, merge, or a random mesocyclone manages to form. This
could lead to isolated occurrences of flash flooding through 12z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_N4KQAA0rUz7tgWPuYZrzjaRGXLLvMOsJzxUScWspUMbgC-RTHiKXrddp7nni4YCAzJusCUq7Hyl1pxvJJNH1Iis8z8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37848504 37188430 36188714 35059180 34419427
35819500 37018955

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 07:15:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110715
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-111312-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1245
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110712Z - 111312Z

Summary...A weak low pressure area is moving inland of the Central
Gulf Coast. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are
possible near the coast. Flash flooding could be isolated to
widely scattered.

Discussion...A weak surface low is near Slidell LA at the present
time, with a central pressure of 1012 hPa. This movement is being
induced by a shortwave digging across the Southern Plains. CIN
has been eroding somewhat over the last several hours near and
just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Precipitable water values
of 2-2.2" lie in the area per GPS data. Confluent 850 hPa inflow
is seen to the low pressure system's southeast. Effective bulk
shear has been flirting with 25 kts as of late. Thus far, shower
and thunderstorm activity has been isolated to widely scattered in
coverage.

The expectation is for shower and thunderstorms to increase in
coverage over the next six hours. As showers and thunderstorms
move inland, the instability gradient near the Gulf Coast should
sharpen as activity stabilizes inland areas. There is some chance
for short, training bands in this scenario whose focus should
shift east from far southeast LA/MS towards the FL Panhandle as
the low-level inflow veers from south-southwest to west-southwest.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible in
this environment. This degree of rainfall would be most
problematic in urban areas. Flash flooding is expected to be
isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!40AKtV1JhATatMwUcaY0fr82OY2hOZxWM5D2eYqE1PVPDSzk6KT3qr99b8GEilKND4I8LnDHH29ETkcbKBRsJcPTFYI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31718741 30858614 29998556 30218664 30148801
29918849 29088898 28878950 29248965 30148939
30938900 31408856

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 12:05:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111204
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1246
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
803 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern KY...Southwest WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111203Z - 111630Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall rates associated with showers and
thunderstorms going through midday may result in a few areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
convective cluster across northwest KY that is gradually advancing
off to the east in close proximity to a quasi-stationary front.
Surface observations suggest a weak surface low riding along the
front which is strongly facilitating this convective activity
given a corridor of relatively stronger low-level moisture
convergence near and ahead of the wave.

The environment is very moist with a deeply tropical column
suggested in OSPO ALPW data, with notable moisture concentrations
seen in the 700/300mb layer. RAP data suggests PWs overall are
near 2 inches, and generally near over 2 standard deviations above
normal for this time of the year.

Instability is modest with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg, but
the level of columnar moisture/saturation suggests a rather tall,
skinny CAPE profile. Thus, a setup that is highly efficient and
capable of yielding high rainfall rates of up 2 inches/hour with
the stronger convective cores/updrafts near this advancing surface
wave. Relatively divergent flow aloft is also noted downstream of
the shortwave trough digging toward the Mid-South which is
favoring at least modest dynamical ascent.

Over the next few hours as this surface wave moves east across
north-central KY, there should tend to be some west/east focus of
convection with perhaps some occasional instances of
cell-training. The activity should impact portions of central and
eastern KY and may advance to an extent across southwest WV going
through midday. Given the high rainfall rate potential with
elevated warm cloud depths, and cell-training potential, a couple
of swaths of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals will be possible.

Given some of the local urban footprints and rugged terrain
farther east across eastern KY and southwest WV, a few areas of
flash flooding will be possible going through midday.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6x8dhRyEZoNlCH-CLYe04vgLDDKHiE7mKeftH7mA6qMng43YxByOcBBXQetzl8WERG2MWVADw_wOVTtFX3XYTG46msI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38508434 38508276 38318138 37928095 37518139
37398241 37328381 37318522 37488637 38068642
38328569

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 12:53:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111253
FFGMPD
ARZ000-111800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1247
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
852 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northeast AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111252Z - 111800Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will maintain a threat for mainly isolated areas of urban flash
flooding going through early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a well-defined mid-level
shortwave trough amplifying into portions of the Lower MS Valley
and Mid-South which is driving an axis of rather slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms across central to northeast AR.
Shortwave dynamics/DPVA interacting with a nearby quasi-stationary
front and pool of very moist and relatively unstable air should
continue to support a convective threat over the next several
hours.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted, with PWs of 2.0 to
2.25 inches, and this will easily support rainfall rates as high
as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger storms. There is also
an environment conducive for some back-building cells with weak
and locally opposite upwind Corfidi vectors relative to the mean
layer flow, and this will also support elevated and locally
persistent high rainfall rate potential.

Satellite and radar data shows some of the back-building
convection occurring west of Little Rock, and the latest hires
multi-model consensus suggests some additional rainfall potential
over the next several hours as high as 3 to 4+ inches.

An isolated threat for mainly urban flash flooding will exist
going through the early afternoon hours as this shortwave energy
transits the region.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6v-T6xK_iXUCk_a50S7Rz3yJ62fVM1Yx85u0jr0_3XuAHeprz0670o-U434Qm0vZawWn3nVu5ozj3wp_qInvtX3uxh8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36099070 35649034 35179039 34669110 34229239
34059366 34349434 34859436 35389349 35829215

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 13:33:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111333
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-111930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1248
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
930 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern AL...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111330Z - 111930Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving bands of showers and thunderstorms with very
high rainfall rates will be capable of maintaining a threat for
flash flooding over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows some
impressively cold convective tops to near -75 C across portions of
southern AL and the FL Panhandle as an axis of very moist/unstable
and convergent Gulf inflow continues around the eastern flank of a
weak low center across southern MS.

Multiple surface troughs/convergence zones are noted in the
surface observations, and this coupled with the level of moisture
and instability should maintain the convective threat over the
next several hours with a general tendency for the activity to
advance farther north and inland across southern AL.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg are in place along with PWs of
2.25+ inches, and this combination will easily support rainfall
rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour given the level of stronger cloud-top-cooling/strong updrafts seen. This along with some
banded nature of the convection and localized cell-training
concerns will favor some spotty 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals going
through early this afternoon.

The FFG values are rather high, but the slow-moving and locally
training character of the convection may drive sufficient totals
for some areas of flash flooding. However, overall, the antecedent
conditions on the ground would suggest this primarily being an
urban flash flood concern.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8WypelegyL33iJY01iJd1Q5kw5JeJ1WZu-su89qaOCbHx4IlZy_9-Lt2e9RQze9jw0RLzUfhLr_FMP0UkHqUtaBcFH0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32498727 32318596 31548510 30548510 30048554
30218667 30098765 30098812 30478845 31198821
31928804

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 18:57:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111857
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-120055-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1249
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Much of AZ...Western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111856Z - 120055Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally high
rainfall rates will be capable of producing isolated to scattered
areas of flash flooding going through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data shows convective initiation taking place
across portions of southern UT and down into the Mogollon Rim area
of northern AZ, with some suggestion of activity developing also
down across southeast AZ.

A destabilizing boundary layer via strong solar insolation will be
working in tandem with orographics and an array of differential
heating boundaries influenced by localized cloud cover and terrain
to support increasing coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity
over the next several hours.

SBCAPE values are already on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and
the environment is rather moist with PWs regionally as high as 2
to 3 standard deviations above normal. This includes a combination
of monsoonal moisture and some long-track high-level moisture
transport that has origins to some of the eastern Pacific basin
tropical activity, including T.S. Norbert.

Very modest shortwave energy is noted across portions of southern
UT down through northwest AZ and eastern CA which will be moving
gradually off to the east this afternoon, and this energy coupled
with the strengthening thermodynamic environment and
aforementioned orographic footprint with higher terrain will also
facilitate the localized expansion of convection with some spotty
potential for convection to be terrain-anchored.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5+ inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and some of the 12Z hires CAMs support some
spotty 2 to 3+ inch totals going through the late afternoon hours.

This will support concerns for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding. The normally dry washes, local burn scar areas and
any slot canyons will be most vulnerable to see these potential
flash flood impacts over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5jF0FhkpgM2NZNZMKyGuCzV-f-2E20XXxtTzlhwqPN3jx6L48vJjXafeAdz5nQCfaJsZa2UGPEkCDgO_54NQGKkbrQ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38241184 38221069 37820975 36700852 35240780
33180777 31510854 31050974 31171127 31701186
32831192 34091229 34971302 36171332 37511282

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 21:00:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112100
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-120130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1250
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Northern Alabama and Georgia into South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112058Z - 120130Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving lines of thunderstorms with very high
rainfall rates will maintain a threat for flash flooding over
northern Alabama north-central Georgia, into South Carolina into
the evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional NEXRAD depicts lines of thunderstorms on the
outer boundary of a mid-level low over central Alabama. This
activity had been progressing inland from the Gulf Coast today,
but has slowed as low level southerly flow has encountered speed
convergence over northern AL/GA and east into SC. Ample moisture
(PW of 2.3") and instability (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) has
maintained heavy rain rates, so the slowing has led to localized
flash flooding on a east-west line that stretches through the
Atlanta metro. This focus area then shifts south over eastern GA
while earlier activity from eastern SC progresses toward GA.
Scattered areas of hourly rainfall of 2-3" have been estimated
from KFFC recently.

This slow motion should continue and allow at least localized
flash flooding into this evening despite higher FFG. Recent HRRR
and RRFS runs support this notion with localized 2-4" over the
next few hours. 3hr FFG is generally 3-4", so the main flash flood
threat should continue to be for urbanized or travel corridors.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6qSmuLvtGarD-RUn8NWqBxz4QHtoS4SkFhEnmtlMwcSyLGbrZe1Z7LRvVnRtc3rAILKO164eV6Potyj5Qg8hvHl-6hU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34608716 34368390 33978147 33138085 32158125
31608236 32918337 33638618 33858678 34108748

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 21:32:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112132
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1251
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
532 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi into Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112131Z - 120230Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with very high rainfall rates
make a threat for flash flooding over eastern Mississippi into
Alabama this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2130Z...regional NEXRAD depicts scattered of
thunderstorms on increasingly convergent western boundary of a
mid-level low over central Alabama. Ample moisture (PW of 2.2 to
2.3") and instability (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) has allowed heavy
rain rates so far over southern MS and northwestern AL. This focus
area along a trough should continue to drift east this evening and
could congeal over east-central MS into west central AL over the
next few hours. shifts south over eastern GA while earlier
activity from eastern SC progresses toward GA. Max rain rates have
been around 2.5" per KDGX and KGWX with the most recent activity.

Slow motion in 10-15kt deep layer wind should allow localized
flash flooding this evening, especially as it moves east to areas
along the AL/MS border that received rain in the past day and over
urban areas. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs support the ongoing
activity with the RRFS farther east/south with it's motion. Both
agree on max rain threat of 2-4" over the next few hours,
maximized in areas of cell mergers in the slow flow.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4blAThW37XSNxCjdo99puRMVIqp01VwUQrY6a4hsmxc20qSJNKY6Jv2D3XmYTpCQRMP51szRMvdMrDYsbWQSASKVLdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34718814 34478730 33528751 33268759 32698813
31988828 31438807 30948806 30578856 30758988
31529006 33378978 34488936

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 00:25:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120025
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-120445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1252
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Western Tennessee/Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120020Z - 120445Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with very high rainfall rates
bring a threat for scattered flash flooding to western Tennessee,
Kentucky, into northern Mississippi tonight.

DISCUSSION...As of 0030Z...regional NEXRAD depicts a broken line
of heavy thunderstorms over western TN and northern MS. This
activity is shifting north-northeast into western Kentucky in a
moist tongue east of an upper low over northern Arkansas. Ample
moisture (PW of 2.1 to 2.3") and instability (MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg)
has allowed heavy rain rates with hourly estimates of 2-3" from
KNQA). Continued southerly flow pumping moisture in should
maintain activity as it continues to drift east from its northward
movement. Western TN and south had dry antecedent conditions, but
up to a couple inches fell in western KY over the past day, so FFG
decreases to the north.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs support the activity shifting into KY
with both featuring 2-4" maxes over the next few hours, maximized
in areas of repeating cells in the southerly deep layer flow east
of the low. Scattered flash flooding is possible.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_7PaDRpfwSQOzh6CAJhuBAJejkvto-sDXfzGKR4jsekKBYCzdvxueoNn0CaN2Kwb2l6zne75wqk4REdUnsLyQiuONd4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37158748 36888661 35808667 34818781 34528871
34389004 35138935 35918912 36538893 37098860

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 00:54:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120054
FFGMPD
AZZ000-120600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1253
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Central to Eastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120052Z - 120600Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop into the
overnight along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona. This activity may
persist enough to cause scattered flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...As of 0045Z, regional NEXRAD in AZ depicts scattered
thunderstorms over the Mogollon Rim to the White Mtns. Westerly
low level flow will continue to bring higher moisture and
instability from lower elevations. Recent radar estimated rates
are up to 2.5"/hr from KFSX.

Instability should be maintained through this evening which should
set up enough repeating heavy rain to produce increasing flash
flood coverage into the overnight. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs
maintain agree on heavy activity along the Mogollon Rim through
about 04Z before potentially advancing west into the inflow and
down the Mogollon Rim. Both models depict 2-4" QPF through 06Z
which could produce considerable flash flooding, especially in the
terrain below the Mogollon Rim.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Bxc-Z5HjGeC9seIPRR7-VXkwGVvcRSoGdgsvztM7ZApzOwlrtYxZE6eTWSJ8G8mS-0z7F_-MlJfVYaDXY-Wbw4SCIs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35951247 35691022 34030924 32840906 32460936
33181044 33301081 34001168 34981217

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 01:33:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120126
FFGMPD
MNZ000-120600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1254
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
925 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120125Z - 120600Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with high rainfall rates bring
a threat for isolated flash flooding from central through northern
Minnesota overnight.

DISCUSSION...As of 0115Z...regional NEXRAD depicts a line of heavy thunderstorms along a cold front from central MN to the Boundary
Waters. Moisture and instability has pooled along this front and
it may struggle to progress east ahead of the activity. Rain rates
of up to 2"/hr should continue to occur for at least a couple
hours while remaining north of the Twin Cities and perhaps not
into the Arrowhead which had earlier activity. Much of this area
has higher FFG, generally above 2"/hr, so flash flooding should be
isolated.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs support the activity developing over the
next couple hours before waning. Slow movement will lead to
increased duration and the potential for 2-4" of rainfall through
about 05Z. Isolated flash flooding should occur.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9i22NDaCkeve3Pvv9eBV3naLhO6YEnMGa_Ptl8eTYsJScEdPZRxLofmmuyttowuq6m5JShLnbzUuY_yXrRGs8poQNRI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48649289 48409161 48289108 47879124 46889223
45759310 45269408 45219602 45739595 47439423
48329330

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 02:58:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120258
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-120856-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1255
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120256Z - 120856Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall appear to
be somewhat increasing in coverage along small portions of the
AL/MS coast. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding.

Discussion...An upper level low across AR is allowing for
difluence aloft across the Central Gulf Coast. Near and behind an
outflow boundary which has tried to push offshore, new convective
development has occurred near the AL/MS coastal border and the MS
barrier islands. A few other showers and thunderstorms have
recently formed across far southern AL and the western FL
Panhandle as well. This is occurring within a zone of 850 hPa
confluence. Precipitable water values of 2-2.25" exists here, per
GPS data. Effective bulk shear of 25+ kts is moving into the
region. CIN has yet to set in; ML CAPE is 1500-2500 J/kg.

The guidance appears to be missing the recent uptick, but is
aboard the idea of it happening in 2+ hours. Given the parameters
in place, hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are
possible where cells train. There appears to be better potential
for this overnight into Saturday morning due to the increase in
effective bulk shear. This degree of rainfall would be most
problematic in urban areas. Flash flooding occurrence is expected
to be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9SuBKKXlmoB_DHNMyXkQA8Ek71-5V63M5Fgu2E2NAmfUPbQvIuynUf-TS8PPeSdQA7iCvIX-aNh8IFN1nb8Lx-elZPw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31198581 30308588 30318671 30218754 30128851
30328886 30438888 30708843 31098759

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 04:09:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120408
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-121007-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1256
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1207 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Lower Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120407Z - 121007Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are attempting to broaden in
scale and align in and near southwest IN. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been forward
propagating across western KY into southernmost IL. However, new
activity has developed in advance of the system within an ML CAPE
gradient across southwest IN. Precipitable water values of
1.9-2.3" lurk across the region. CIN remains quite low due to the
upper level low moving just south of the eastern MO/AR border. ML
CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts.

While the 00z HREF/REFS guidance continues to show solely forward
propagation convection, the recent addition of new cells in
advance of the activity has changed perceptions. Where cells
manage to merge and/or train, hourly rain amounts have the
potential of ramping up to 2.5", with local totals to 4" being
possible. Given the modest three hourly flash flood guidance
values, flash flooding is possible on an isolated to widely
scattered basis.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9w-W8k5u6RedTS0TKe5U4KPuSfjz5JOZr9Ih94PbFV59A4kceeya1dQc2Pu4_mlK06sRkzzEnP7zekobIUsvs2DpwNM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39878601 38978443 37508516 37308806 36668919
36708967 38828846

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 05:16:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120516
FFGMPD
AZZ000-121114-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1257
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120514Z - 121114Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into
the early morning hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2" could lead to
isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level
trough moving across the Great Basin and southern CA, aiding
difluence aloft. Precipitable water values range from close to 1"
in the Mogollon Rim to close to 2" in the Lower Deserts. CIN has
developed; MU CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg remains across the region.
Effective bulk shear of 25 kts is helping to organize convection
near the Mogollon Rim.

Guidance suggests some westward drift to convection with time
across AZ. The scale of the heavy rain footprint should reduce in
scale over time, with a more significant decline expected after
09z. Until activity can reduce in scale, hourly rain amounts to
2" are supported by the environmental parameters, which could
occur due to backbuilding, cell training, or cell mergers. This
degree of rainfall would be problematic in burn scars, dry
washes/arroyos, box/slot canyons, and urban areas. Flash flooding
issues are expected to be isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8qG3P2PGdFVAb-JFylCqdftXTtwAnmJATwrxauE8IQFegfyF3Bcot8x2ewZjWsJpCT9zuLGgDLV-cS8aV18jNVqvefU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36341260 36251120 35451041 33360993 32310982
32561182 34051303

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 06:28:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120628
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-121227-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1258
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of AL, GA, & FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120627Z - 121227Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing across southern
& eastern AL. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding.

Discussion...A couple attempts of shower and thunderstorm bands
have formed as of late across southern & eastern AL within a
region of confluent 850 hPa flow. Precipitable water values are
2-2.25" per GPS data. CIN never quite developed in this area,
which is ahead of an upper level low centered near the AR/TN/MO
border junction, with an additional vorticity lobe rotating
through northern LA/northwest MS. ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg.
Effective bulk shear is 25 kts.

Convective developments are broader than indicated by the 00z
HREF/REFS guidance, but their placement isn't terribly far off.
There is an expectation of this narrow convective bands either
moving or ultimately extending northeast into northwest GA over
the next six hours while the 850 hPa confluence zone shifts
eastward. The environmental parameters suggest that hourly rain
amounts to 3" and local totals to 5" are possible, which would be
problematic in urban areas and where soils were partially
saturated by heavy rainfall on Friday. Flash flooding occurrences
could be isolated to widely scattered in this synoptic setup.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_aWlc9vV5zDZHKQ-QcjvdEs_iovlrW02u77xfNwvMAw2aSkT_l9fhcpt4QkWnWbzPczWeAwDsQCN93fXDNjBcFZD7_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34508426 33428423 31338503 30188568 30168753
30768783 31898729 34278570

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 08:08:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120808
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121406-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1259
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120806Z - 121406Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue
moving northeast. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals
to 4" could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Forward propagating convection along with development
out ahead of the activity continues to produce random cell
mergers/short periods of training. The showers and thunderstorms
are forming within a zone of 850 hPa confluence and within an
instability gradient. Precipitable water values of 1.8-2.1" lie
here per GPS data. CIN has developed; MU CAPE Is 500-1000 J/kg
near the thunderstorms with slightly higher values to their
southeast. Effective bulk shear is close to 25 kts.

While there's a bit of disparity amongst various pieces of
mesoscale guidance, with the 06z hi-res NAM abandoning the
prospect of this system's existence, the 00z HREF/REFS signal is
fairly cohesive. The progress of the convective mass should shift
more east-northeast with time. Where thunderstorms manage to
merge or briefly train, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local
totals to 4" are possible. While the three hourly flash flood
guidance values are high in IN, they are lower in OH due to
partially saturated soils from heavy rainfall on the 9th and 10th.
Isolated to widely scattered occurrences of flash flooding are
possible into late Saturday morning.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7TogS-gVI5BWmdJb0LaH7C95RyGQcFCbklJSszdZoPmevD2EVWjN42XSVhUgV8TcItbRQWKzyYE5ZRtivyOSj4B1OR0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40588344 39968292 39158394 38548569 39038654
39558740 40068676

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 14:02:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121402
FFGMPD
GAZ000-121800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1260
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Northern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121400Z - 121800Z

Summary...Training showers are expected to continue across
portions of northern Georgia through the remainder of the morning,
with additional heavy rains and localized areas of flash flooding
possible.

Discussion...The morning sounding from FFC showed PWs over 2
inches and a freezing level around 15,000 ft. This environment
has supported a corridor of very efficient showers moving
southwest-northeast from near Carrollton to the Atlanta metro.
These showers have been training ahead of a slow-moving
mid-to-upper level shortwave and its associated surface trough
approaching from TN/AL. KFFC radar indicates rainfall rates over
2 inches where these showers continue to train. Showers are
expected to continue to shift slowly to the northeast across
northern Georgia along with the better forcing. With the
environment remaining favorable for efficient rainfall, additional
heavy amounts and localized areas of flash flooding are possible.
Recent runs of the HRRR indicate localized additional amounts of
3+ inches are possible though the remainder of the morning into
the early afternoon within the highlighted area. The threat for
flash flooding will be elevated across areas that have already
seen heavy amounts, in addition to urbanized and poor drainage
areas.

Pereira

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_mGI8MV0v3bVrTtqltRVocGays29xXyGrN0s_zh1WRgiblvZcWLprJqInG7gJwsab28pD0lHquykeRO8pHQUvzUU948$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34768352 34508311 34238318 33838397 33578463
33548517 33928506 34418456 34678420

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 18:19:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121818
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1261
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the TN/OH Valleys and the Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121818Z - 130015Z

SUMMARY...Expanding areas of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and this evening will likely result in areas of flash
flooding given a combination of heavy rainfall rates and locally
sensitive antecedent conditions. This will include the flood-prone
urban areas as well.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E IR satellite imagery is
showing a general cooling of convective tops across areas of
eastern TN and southeast KY on up into areas of southern and
eastern OH. Some convective initiation is also imminent over the
higher terrain of WV where rather strong solar insolation over the
last few hours has helped to destabilize the boundary layer while
also facilitating some differential heating boundary activity.

One of the bigger drives of the heavy rainfall threat over the
next several hours will be the ejecting 700/500 mb shortwave
trough axis over the Lower OH Valley which has a southward
extension into parts of the Mid-South and will be advancing east
across the broader TN/OH Valley region and eventually the central
Appalachians going through later today and then this evening.

MLCAPE values regionally have increased to 500 to 1000+ J/kg, and
the additional boundary layer heating will drive this magnitude
upwards over the next few hours. Meanwhile, the vertical column is
quite moist with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches, with the greatest
moisture profiles noted over southern OH down into eastern TN.
However, all of the PWs across the region including the central
Appalachians are running a solid 2 to 3 standard deviations above
normal.

The 12Z HREF/REFS suites shows a substantial uptick in shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours as the upstream
shortwave approaches and yields stronger DPVA/divergent flow aloft
and related deep layer ascent. This will support a low-level
response with some uptick in southwest flow and thus a further
increase in moisture transport up across the Upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians in particular heading into the evening hours.

High rainfall rates are expected, with some of the stronger storms
likely to produce rainfall rates as high as 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour. The HREF/REFS guidance supports the greatest threat
of that over southern and eastern OH, central and northern WV and
into western PA. Some storm totals going through at least
mid-evening this evening may reach as high as 3 to 4+ inches which
will be aided by some localize cell-training concerns as
convection expands in coverage.

Locally sensitive antecedent conditions with moist soils coupled
with the flood-prone urban corridors are likely to experience at
least some areas of flash flooding going through this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9bP5Dl9X_fGgLqfJWBzowB4t3WyxX2GyHNQ5V__Xwq8F34TBxcuYSjzbHy_qtyyAnYba0-W3lgxUdAeL3BEtiuDNbiM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX... OHX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41777934 41107820 39457887 38717971 37758069
36898146 36048229 35438365 35878489 36658473
37898386 39918234 41198099 41678021

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 19:07:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121907
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1262
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121905Z - 130105Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates will likely foster scattered areas of flash
flooding going into the evening hours. Urban locations along with
burn scar areas and the normally dry washes will be at greatest
risk of seeing these impacts over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data and regional radar shows plenty of
convective initiation taking place across south-central to
southeast AZ, and to a lesser extent near the Mogollon Rim area
farther north.

A destabilizing boundary layer via strong solar insolation has
already focused SBCAPE values as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and
even some values over southern AZ are over 3000 J/kg. This
instability coupled with different heating boundaries and the
influence of terrain will focus a notable increase in the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours.

Plenty of monsoonal moisture remains in place across the region
with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches and with PWs across southern AZ
very anomalous with values in the 90th to 95th+ percentile range.
This moisture coupled with the instability is expected to yield
high rainfall rates capable of reaching 1.5 inches in as little as
30 minutes.

Weak vort energy stretched out across the region from
west-southwest to east-northeast in the 500/700 mb layer will tend
to play a role in the overall convective evolution, but in time as
outflow boundary activity ensues, there will likely be some
collisions of these mesoscale boundaries that will facilitate new
convective development. Some localized persistence of the
convection over the next several hours may foster some spotty 2 to
4 inch rainfall totals and especially over southern AZ where the
moisture and instability parameters are maximized.

This will likely promote scattered areas of flash flooding, with
urban locations, burn scar areas, and the normally dry washes most
susceptible to seeing flash flooding impacts going through this
evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6JgaKFRla9_cshYvsWtUZgxMx4mU9Y4PpILRueD4qgWWovzUfPkkhLjkpNCJGw0JhP78D02UYgmEktaKnrWA3ZJ4qTk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35401112 35041020 34300934 33370890 31750885
31270912 31070979 31171127 31451231 31931332
32681363 33211335 33731220 34451189 35091190
35351162

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 19:41:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121941
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-130130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1263
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast VA...North-Central to
Northeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121940Z - 130130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
may promote some localized and mainly urban areas of flash
flooding going through this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery suggests
plenty of instability across the southern Mid-Atlantic region with
a regionally agitated CU/TCU field noted, and especially over
south-central to southeast VA and into areas of north-central to
northeast NC where scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms
are already evolving.

Cooling convective tops are noted in close proximity to a
quasi-stationary front that is draped west to east near the VA/NC
border, and the frontal convergence coupled with a strongly
unstable and very moist airmass should promote some additional
expansion of convection over the next few hours.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg and PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches
will support very high rainfall rates capable of reaching 2.5
inches/hour with the strongest convective cells. Relatively slow
cell-motions coupled with at least some potential for cell-mergers
will favor potential for some rainfall totals reaching 3 to 4+
inches at least on an isolated basis.

The 12Z HREF/REFS suite strongly supports this rainfall potential,
and while the FFGs across the region are rather high, the setup
should favor at least a localized flash flood threat with
generally the urban areas at greatest risk for impacts going
through the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7O0niQqQ9fL8bs0sZ7nWNo76J2eeyjV3MzOV8zRSrxuGEtFj8XQBL1CJRZ5bLhjpgjipiufAEcodR1Iemvg3L7p3TqI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37807689 37537574 36827542 36197557 35837606
35507721 35427863 35677960 36228021 36808010
37357939 37707821

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 20:32:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 122032
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-130130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1264
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern UT...Northern AZ...Western
NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122031Z - 130130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm
activity will continue into the evening hours. Isolated areas of
flash flooding will be possible for the more sensitive slot
canyon, burn scar and dry wash locations.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data and regional radar shows a gradual
increase in the coverage of scattered monsoonal shower and
thunderstorm activity.

The airmass over the region continues to destabilize with SBCAPE
values as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg given strong solar insolation,
and this coupled with orographics should promote the additional
expansion of generally scattered areas of convection that will be
capable of producing high rainfall rates. This will be aided by
PWs running as high as 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal.

Hires model CAMs suggest some rainfall rates as high as 1 to 1.5
inches/hour, and some spotty 2+ inch rainfall potential where some
of these slow-moving areas of thunderstorm activity set up and
potentially even become nearly anchored to some of the higher
terrain.

Given the rather high rainfall rates and slow cell-motions in
general with the storms that do evolve going into the evening
hours, some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible. The
normally dry washes, burn scar areas and slot canyon regions will
be at greatest risk as normal with this kind setup.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9TwhBSeyK9vM8Gp-z5TlTwg_nQ9ZNnIUJyNwNAd1_RTaPUFAfD1tfs0q_5fKlnPX9Th3m-XEmU8mn32z_TTcqVYTDXc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39680942 39330886 38080886 36500891 35200775
33750722 33220747 32960815 33140877 33850905
34600959 34830987 35111025 35351090 35401148
35331221 36091269 36771290 37451289 38181264
38751232 39321167 39651061

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 23:56:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 122356
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-130555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1265
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper OH Valley...Central Appalachians...Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 122355Z - 130555Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected going into the overnight hours. Wet/sensitive antecedent
conditions and locally persistent areas of high rainfall rates
will continue to drive areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery
shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough advancing east
across the OH Valley which will advance into areas of the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states overnight. This has been
fostering cold convective tops and an expansive axis of heavy
showers and thunderstorms over the last several hours across
portions of central and northern WV and western PA.

A focused corridor of warm air advection along with deep layer
moisture transport, moderate instability, and shortwave dynamics
are all working in tandem to drive the convective threat across
the region. Ahead of the shortwave trough itself, warm-sector
MLCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg are still in place, with the leading
edge of this up into southwest PA and extendind down through
central WV and back west into central and southern OH. Meanwhile
the northeast advance of a warm front is also allowing for deeper
layer moisture transport and higher PWs to arrive with values
generally near 2 inches.

Over the next several hours heading into the overnight period,
stronger DPVA and associated right-entrance region upper jet
dynamics aloft will support stronger deep layer ascent overrunning
areas of the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians and northern
Mid-Atlantic region as deeper layer moisture transport and warm
air advection continues. This will interact with the remaining
pool of instability over the region and coupled with convergence
along the advancing warm front and orographics/upslope flow near
the higher terrain to maintain regional clusters of heavy showers
and thunderstorms. This may include some northeast advance into
areas of northern PA and southern NY.

Despite gradually waning instability profiles with the loss of
daytime heating, the very moist column coupled with deep layer
forcing will still support high rainfall rates upwards of 1 to 2
inches/hour. This is support by a consensus of the 18Z HREF/REFS
guidance, and the latest multi-model consensus also suggests
corridors of additional cell-training that may yield additional
localized swaths of 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals going through at
least midnight.

Given the ongoing areas of flash flooding and already
wet/sensitive conditions otherwise, these additional rains going
into the overnight hours are likely to promote additional areas of
flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6CEU9Lure0Zq1ohMIwoTmIgqczI4736orj0N3KzdWxs9GQqB9BrVNbN2p9HAlngcB_asqy3k6cJ4Q168N0lPhy0Y3U8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42857673 42767548 42067522 41427599 40747688
40017790 38637937 37558059 37318160 37708256
38338306 39268294 40208205 41318044 42307859

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 00:58:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130057
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-130500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1266
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern AZ...West-Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130055Z - 130500Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of scattered showers and thunderstorms
with locally high rainfall rates may support an additional
isolated concern for some flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W IR satellite imagery still shows
some scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms across portions
of central and southern AZ along with west-central NM. The
activity has generally peaked, and overall the cloud tops are
generally warming as instability has been exhausted through the
convective overturning process.

The instability that still remains somewhat formidable based on
the latest RAP analysis is mainly confined to areas of southwest
to south-central AZ where SBCAPE values remain as high as 2000+
J/kg. However, there are multiple outflow boundaries sweeping
across the region which are actively working to weaken the surface
instability profile.

Regardless, the remaining footprint of locally colliding outflow
boundaries and presence of orographics will continue to support at
least a few more hours of scattered areas of monsoonal shower and
thunderstorm activity. PWs remain anomalously high across the
region with values of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, and
therefore, any additional convection this evening will still be
capable of producing high rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches/hour.

Where any cells still try to hang up near areas of higher terrain
or along colliding mesoscale/outflow boundaries, there may be some
additional spotty 2+ inch amounts. This may yield another instance
or two of flash flooding, and more likely that this would be an
impact to some of the normally dry washes, although a highly
localized urban impact or perhaps a burn scar issue could also
still be possible from these additional rains in the near-term.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-UTOxO2Jhz_WN0dPTOfGr_cfuUWl7c2ihJH64eh-Nagt0Bawhsia8Q61tcFTX9j9iOXPKi2GzJmvVDCPHBS218mU1hg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35821178 35181023 35160859 34700771 34020770
33430868 32731066 31691190 31761313 32321406
33021451 33971440 34501373 35411309

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 02:22:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130221
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130819-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1267
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1020 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...near the OK/KS border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130219Z - 130819Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are capable of hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" during the next six hours.
Flash flooding is possible on a widely scattered basis.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops
on infrared satellite imagery near the KS/OK border are elevated
over a surface front which angles through OK near a zone of 850
hPa confluence/convergence. From the central OK/KS border
eastward, the atmosphere is relatively uncapped with 700 hPa
temperatures near or below 12C. Precipitable water values are
1.75-2". MU CAPE is 2000-3500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is
30-40 kts.

The 18z HREF/12z REFS are a few hours behind on the convective
evolution here and not terribly helpful...used the 00z hi-res
NAM/00z ARW/00z ARW2 and recent radar reflectivity trends as a
starting point for convective placement during the next six hours.
When adjusting for the three hour offset -- the signal in the 12z
REFS/18z HREF is never better for heavy rainfall than it is right
now. However, there are aspects of the environment which improve
with time, such as the low-level inflow increasing while it veers.
The 18z-based Galvez-Davison Index implies an increase in
convective coverage with time across portions of southern KS and
OK. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local totals to
4" are possible where storms backbuild, train, or merge. Flash
flood occurrences could be widely scattered, weighted towards
urban areas given the moderate to high three hourly flash flood
guidance values.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!98Fsw2aSA0BzU7GcU77KueJisdFFSo0HBgdKZcO1mD_RHC6BoOznfJWf7ZaZ2Vk4ousRz_TD1OPasE9qbuoQMXXdK-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37629825 37609705 36859539 35669572 35519764
35680069 36949942

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 03:24:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130324
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-130922-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1268
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1123 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130322Z - 130922Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern KS
are capable of hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4".
Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...New elevated showers and thunderstorms in central KS
are trying to align along a west-northwest/east-southeast axis.
To the east, other showers and thunderstorms continue to drop
south-southeast across eastern KS. This is occurring in the
vicinity of an inverted surface trough/convergence zone and near a
zone of 850 hPa confluence/convergence. Precipitable water values
are 1.75-2". Effective bulk shear is 40-60 kts. MU CAPE is
1000-2000 J/kg.

The 00z REFS/HREF have a signal for this activity which is
expected to move more or less in parallel with the activity
farther south near the KS/OK border. The environmental parameters
support hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
wherever cells merge, train, or mesocyclones form. Isolated to
widely scattered flash flooding is possible, particularly in urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5_gb0Wo3P8UYDMyZ4QH4fcgFQfKgEVU90t5YcIXDBSabLlKHD2VDHPUZACRUa4kTAV4JllTg9TvGCHBYkfgj7JAiGhU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39159729 38859556 37379467 36989526 38409898
38949920

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 05:02:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130502
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-130730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1269
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...west-central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130500Z - 130730Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are growing in
coverage in west-central VA. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...An inverted trough north-northeast of a weak low in
southwest VA along with ML CAPE of 500+ J/kg, low-level upslope
flow, and confluent 850 hPa winds have allowed for a small area of
growing convection in west-central VA. Another small area of
thunderstorms is moving east from southeast WV. Precipitable
water values are 1.75-2". Effective bulk shear of ~25 kts is
trying to align/organize the convection.

Both the 00z HREF/REFS have a small signal for this convection
which lasts for at least a couple more hours, after which the
instability in the area should exhaust. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" could lead to flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8yBLV0o2QuUYPhb6Gm4mBwm4QdWMW1PbmV3WlBgZNml_86T9koKPMuPLDM8jrg8JDJzSfkPi9xgBApHT1ZtlsHTP_cY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38637950 38427883 37787888 37297962 37528031
38168029

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 06:06:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130605
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-131203-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1270
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...in and near eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130603Z - 131203Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic States. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" could lead to widely
scattered to scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...There has been recent shower and thunderstorm
development across eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic States.
Precipitable water values of 1.5-2.25" lie across the region, with
values continue to increase across northern NJ, southeast NY, and
southern New England. ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg across the
southern and central Mid-Atlantic and 100-500 J/kg across much of
NY and northeast PA, with upward trends noted. Effective bulk
shear of 25-35 kts is spreading towards the area.

Over the next few hours, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage in the region near Chesapeake Bay and across
much of the Delaware River Valley. This is the region where 850
hPa confluence/convergence is forecast to increase/ sharpen
through the period. After sunrise, heavy rainfall is expected to
spread into the NY/NJ/CT Tri-State area as instability moves
closeby. Interior Southeast NY should see skirmishes of heavy
rainfall through the MPD period. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5"
with local totals to 4", which would be problematic in urban
areas. Flash flooding instances could be widely scattered to
scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9fM3uCRClSubV7NPaEQG5uptpuklcpYDZJn9F7vywOPz7FfQhkntmj7plCmhNDJ0HKwu5safinuPfgGR6yDmqxRSMIg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42737435 41847337 40777315 39277409 37597548
37907692 39187714 41477603

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 06:54:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130654
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-131120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1271
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...Near the MO/KS/AR/OK border intersection

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130650Z - 131120Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain continue
across portions of KS and OK. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
additional local totals to 4" remain possible through sunrise.
This could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A group of scattered showers and thunderstorms has
shown some merging/training character as of late within zones of
850 hPa confluence. This elevated convection is occurring well
northeast of a thermal boundary down near the Red River of the
South. Precipitable water values of 1.6-1.9" lie across the
region. MU CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of 35-55
kts is organizing the convection.

There have been indications in radar imagery that the thunderstorm
complex is starting to shrink in scale. The 00z HREF/REFS
guidance agree that this trend should continue, and show the scale
dwindling from here on out, with the heavy rain signal dropping
off around 11z. Wherever cells train, merge, or a mesocyclone
manages to form, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to
4" are possible. This could allow for isolated to widely
scattered flash flood concerns, primarily across urban areas and
places where the soils have partially saturated from the very
recent heavy rainfall.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4HfSJXzYgXUTMTfVdD7olBSnBgn-LK4pw9RWBWjPDZu4kVPICu0gGL5twfVPyQLjXiK-phqVdHRPVEYBSZx4QcC7s7U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39459647 38369405 36419374 35419513 36109722
39379971

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 12:02:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131202
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1273
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...Eastern PA...Northern NJ...Southeast
NY...CT...RI...Central MA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131200Z - 131800Z

Summary...Widespread heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is
expected across southern New England into far eastern Pennsylvania
through the early afternoon hours. Multiple rounds of training
convection in a highly saturated environment are likely to result
in some instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a increase in
enhanced rainfall entering the outlook area from the southwest. A
pre-frontal trough axis in the vicinity of Long Island is
generating a slow moving band of convection approaching southern
Connecticut and into northeast New Jersey. The main synoptic scale
warm front farther to the south is also producing widespread heavy
rainfall over central New Jersey and south of Long Island, and
this should gradually progress slowly northward through the
remainder of the morning hours.

The overall atmospheric environment is quite conducive for
additional convection with high rainfall rates on the order of 1
to 2 inches per hour with the heaviest cells. Precipitable water
values on the order of 1.9 to 2.2 inches per the SPC mesoanalysis
are advecting north on south-southwesterly low level flow, and the
trough and warm front are acting as lifting mechanisms to enhance
rainfall. Additionally, most unstable CAPE on the order of 500-750
J/kg near the coast will further aid in producing higher rainfall
rates. Broader scale ascent is being provided by modest right
entrance upper level jet dynamics.

There is good overall agreement in the near-term CAM guidance for
a swath of 2-3 inch rainfall totals through 2 pm local time from
central Long Island to southeastern Massachusetts, with some
potential for 4+ inch maxima embedded within this corridor. A
secondary and less intense QPF maxima is also noted in some of the
guidance from the Catskills to western Massachusetts with
generally 1-2 inch totals with locally higher amounts possible.
Instances of flash flooding are likely where extended periods of
convective training and back-building develop.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Y4sQKCFzWwYBvJ6_8_LjS3x7ZJKRqM4S_Fat2GxsCcwLilTo1KzmqXyREd7QoUFZgvrr6zRbtvnTIQrrouiHDojJAw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42727093 42617035 42236992 41746976 41386975
41167016 41117123 40817225 40497319 40087390
39857448 39817532 40487551 41097534 41537493
41947426 42297347 42597255 42717160

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 07:55:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130755
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-131053-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1272
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130753Z - 131053Z

Summary...A broadening area of heavy rain is developing near a
zone of surface convergence. Hourly rainfall to 2.5" could lead
to flash flooding.

Discussion...A band of thunderstorms is beginning to lengthen not
far from State College PA near a zone of surface convergence/a
weak surface low and within an area of 850 hPa confluence. MU
CAPE is ~500 J/kg, and rising. Precipitable water values are
1.75-2". Effective bulk shear is close to 25 kts.

The guidance had some signal for heavy rain in this area. This
heavy rainfall should shift east with time along with the 850 hPa
confluence zone. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible
within any training convective bands. This degree of heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8dLUlv51lcoOZFQl5l5E65lPwZqznXSoW9SyM2mdASI5niG4sIqRdIfCMr7bqeTPeqKCZaw9b_gCYCiK-2D2IZexi5I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42027589 41277606 40237739 39837894 40417939
41167890 41837747

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 17:48:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131748
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-132300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1274
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
141 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131741Z - 132300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are beginning to
increase in coverage and intensity across the outlook area. Some
instances of flash flooding will be possible through the
mid-afternoon hours, particularly across vulnerable locations.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars and GOES-W visible satellite
imagery are indicating convective initiation across western
portions of the Mongollon Rim. Daytime heating is adding to an
already most and unstable boundary layer, characterized by PWs on
the order of 1 to 1.8 inches and mixed layer CAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg based on the latest SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, surface to
300 mb flow is very weak as evident from the 12Z Phoenix sounding,
and this will result in slow cell motions and therefore enhanced
rainfall rates where these cells develop.

The latest CAM guidance suite agrees well on the general placement
of most concentrated thunderstorm activity across far southern
Utah into north-central Arizona, but differ more on overall
magnitude of the QPF maxima. The RRFS is generally heavier with
the strongest storms, generally up to 2 inches in some instances,
whereas the HRRR is generally under an inch with those same
storms. Areas that have received heavy rainfall over the past 24
hours, along with recent burn scars and dry canyons, will be most
susceptible to potential flooding through 23Z.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_7jnRZVRHHirnk2vDQINBYn5_yNILQK1vptsgKYhmoYD7Ly2PFDUGgAr8Vbcg_yYhiTuRgz67KrmZkV50V0t88WN6QE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38091193 37791065 36311046 34371033 33171001
31960999 31311007 31341107 31591182 31971297
32791320 33691323 35051380 36481369 37601313

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 20:54:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 132053
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-140200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1275
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern OH...Far Northern
WV...Western and Northern PA...Western and Southern NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132052Z - 140200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expanding in
coverage over the next couple of hours across portions of the
Upper OH Valley through the Lower Great Lakes region and some
portions of the central Appalachians. Locally heavy rainfall rates
and wet/saturated antecedent conditions will support a concern
this evening for isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar data shows scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms
developing and expanding in coverage across portions of central
and eastern OH through northwest PA and into western NY.

This activity is developing along and ahead of a cold front that
is bumping up against a moist and unstable airmass characterized
by MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and PWs locally as high as
1.5 inches. Some relatively strong shear is in place over the
region with as much as 40 to 50 kts of effective bulk shear, and
this will support some storm organization over the next few hours
as late-afternoon heating/instability persists ahead of the cold
front.

Gradually this activity will advance off to the east, with the
activity eventually becoming more prevalent across eastern OH
through northwest PA and southwest NY where instability is rather
well established. The environment is conducive for some rainfall
rates of up to 1.5 inches/hour, and some hires model CAMs suggest
a threat through this evening of spotty 2 to 3 inch rainfall
totals where some localized cell-training sets up. This is
suggested with the orientation of the deeper layer steering flow
relative to the current convection, so some of these highly
localized heavier totals seems plausible.

Given the wet and locally saturated soil conditions and already
elevated streamflows across the region from recent rainfall, these
additional rains this evening may support at least an isolated
threat for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7OGO4JlTMiaiiac4Qb59ieh7VX7q2WgwwEWw7TBguPxMkBnZ0XX091vgQtVSlBIwVIPxnhrkZsPr2izhef2yqbe14bw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43717562 43707441 43147376 42107446 41687498
41377601 41047723 40217865 39168024 38868271
39218381 39748421 40118389 40918272 41298162
41808004 42417929 43077863 43367751 43507672

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 23:07:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 132307
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-140405-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1276
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Much of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132305Z - 140405Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the evening hours across areas of southern UT down
through most of AZ. Some additional isolated areas of flash
flooding will be possible for the normally dry washes, burn scars
and slot canyon areas.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery continues to
show mainly scattered areas of cold-topped shower and thunderstorm
activity across the Southwest U.S. with some of the better focus
of this convection situated across southern UT and northern AZ,
and to some extent portions of central to southeast AZ.

SBCAPE values remain rather high with values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg
in place. This coupled with the rather anomalous PW environment
with values as high as 2 to 3+ standard deviations above normal
will continue to support the stronger thunderstorms producing
rainfall rates as high as 1.5 inches/hour.

The ongoing activity is largely being driven by the diurnal
heating cycle with the aid of orographics and some localized
outflow/mesoscale boundary collisions. Given the favorable
thermodynamic environment that is in place, the threat of
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms should continue for at
least a few more hours before sufficient convective overturning
and boundary layer cooling takes place to weaken the instability
profiles.

Some additional spotty 2+ inch rainfall totals cannot be ruled out
with the current cold-topped convection and especially where some
of these cells tend to be slow-moving and anchored near areas of
higher terrain. This will support an additional threat of isolated
flash flooding for a few more hours as a result. The normally dry
washes, burn scars, and slot canyons will remain at risk of seeing
these impacts including areas well removed and downstream from
where the heaviest rainfall has actually occurred.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7GeMBZcesm4iMqmAoqws31Pt4y4el75UyYwK591Obe5o5zt1_NEE7wrYuDh1ruC9aTPx1mWuAO7vU7J44jN2XKXDky4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38211039 37950986 37140945 35720950 34820916
33850890 33030885 32090885 31350921 31101019
31381145 32021220 33171248 33951271 34691337
35801357 36941322 37641239 38131132

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 03:45:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140345
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-140843-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1277
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southeast AZ & Southwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140343Z - 140843Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms persist across Southeast AZ
and are increasing in coverage in southwest NM while additional
activity exists near El Paso TX. Hourly rain amounts to 2" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across
far southeast AZ and are growing in coverage across southwest NM.
Other thunderstorms lurk near El Paso TX. The region is
sandwiched between a Western Trough aloft and an incoming upper
level low retrograding across northern MX and lies within a region
of 700 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 1.75"+ in
the Lower AZ Deserts and 1-1.25" at elevation. CIN has set in; MU
CAPE is 500-3000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is ~20 kts.

Both the 00z HREF and 00z REFS guidance keep convection going for
several more hours before some fading occurs at 08z or so. There
appears to be some westward shift in the 700 hPa confluence axis
with time, so there should be a general westward drift/shift in
group thunderstorm motion, which could be hastened by instability
exhaustion. While the guidance flares convection back up at some
point after 10z, with the nearby upper trough and upper low
impinging on the region from the southeast, it's unclear if a
convective break will actually occur. Hourly rain amounts are
possible where cells are stationary, manage to train, or merge.
This could lead to flash flooding in burn scars, arroyos/dry
washes, slot/box canyons, and urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-iBm1mRB_lNbve7Y_CgZ6HQf2O76UlaZB9uP-STMbFPklxVkYCDhYdcPZjcfznkQVw3jMIARNKwUZjsL_4pr4wUgf8U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33450833 32910634 31300579 31160861 31131092
32181167 33411149

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 06:20:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140620
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-141218-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1278
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of MO, KS, IA, & NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140618Z - 141218Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form in and
near southeast NE. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals
to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A warm air advection pattern is strengthening across
the region as an 850 hPa warm front advances through northern KS.
The surface warm front lies farther to the southwest across
western KS and eastern CO. New shower and thunderstorm activity
is developing in a MU CAPE gradient, with values up to 2000 J/kg
upstream. There is a hint of backbuilding to the convective
pattern, even at this early stage. The timing of its formation
appears to be splitting the difference between the 00z HREF and
00z REFS timing for 0.5"+ in an hour. Effective bulk shear of 40
kts exists here. Precipitable water values are 1.25-1.5", and
rising. The 700 hPa 12C isotherm is not far to the west of the
new convective development.

The 850 hPa warm front passes through in a few hours, which leads
to confluence within its warm sector at that level, within a
regime of strengthening southwest flow across portions of
southeast NE with time. This brings precipitable water values up
to 1.75-2" rather quickly. This would also draw increased
instability from the stronger portion of the pool to the
southwest. The 1000-500 hPa thickness pattern becomes
increasingly difluent with time, implying the possibility of an
organized convective cluster. With time, there is an expectation
for a continued increase in cell coverage, with the potential for
mesocyclone formation given the increasing effective bulk shear
regionally. At some point, this could act to sharpen the
instability gradient. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" are possible by 12z where cells train, merge, or
mesocyclones form. This could exceed the three hourly flash flood
guidance on an isolated to widely scattered basis.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!438KrywHrYjHpjprfmouh28q6vbFQIHKRYLeS9Lf1PLhATnpMOvcTrOPCrVVht-MAZeCYt0Xs6nb2xUQvVaNx9JXv5M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42449662 40269385 39049448 39609640 41399771

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 08:12:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140811
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-141410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1279
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwest NM & AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140810Z - 141410Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into
the morning hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across
the region on the southeast side of a Western Upper Level Trough
and to the northwest of a retrograding upper level low in northern
MX. Precipitable water values remain 1-1.25" at elevation and
1.75" in the Lower Deserts of AZ. MU CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg near
the thunderstorms. Effective bulk shear is 20 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS suggest that after a relative minimum of
activity over the next couple hours that convection will
reinvigorate across a decent portion of southeast AZ. There is
some indication in the guidance that a low level boundary/possible
outflow boundary pushes west to northwest into an area of
1000-2000 J/kg MU CAPE, which could cause the forecast uptick.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" remain possible where cells are
stationary, merge, or manage to train. This would be problematic
in burn scars, urban areas, slot/box canyons, and dry
washes/arroyos.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5hPCWHHRiRxl3xzfgAi6DssZnHLHLWkKTXjIexKd_rIq3QW9BbmkVYfkDA1gVk3wvNokyVET8oBUTciBU0YEKT2f3Rs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...DMX...EAX...EPZ...FGZ...FSD...GID...OAX... PSR...TOP...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42449662 40269385 39049448 39609640 41399771

35321131 34681063 34540948 35320871 34920758
33750650 32550653 31280818 31161007 31351115
32211200 33051254 34741241

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 09:05:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140904
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-141410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1279...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Corrected for Coding issue

Areas affected...portions of southwest NM & AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140810Z - 141410Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into
the morning hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across
the region on the southeast side of a Western Upper Level Trough
and to the northwest of a retrograding upper level low in northern
MX. Precipitable water values remain 1-1.25" at elevation and
1.75" in the Lower Deserts of AZ. MU CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg near
the thunderstorms. Effective bulk shear is 20 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS suggest that after a relative minimum of
activity over the next couple hours that convection will
reinvigorate across a decent portion of southeast AZ. There is
some indication in the guidance that a low level boundary/possible
outflow boundary pushes west to northwest into an area of
1000-2000 J/kg MU CAPE, which could cause the forecast uptick.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" remain possible where cells are
stationary, merge, or manage to train. This would be problematic
in burn scars, urban areas, slot/box canyons, and dry
washes/arroyos.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!80lvpNt64pO8locddRs3LNK3WOcbbXW-y0b221-Ezh3r-1ePP6Zu0PAGDs0BTGLxEIveFVV3PBSavU1ViJhQZ_5z_JI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35321131 34681063 34540948 35320871 34920758
33750650 32550653 31280818 31161007 31351115
32211200 33051254 34741241

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 11:13:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141113
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-141600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1280
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
711 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...Far Southwest
Minnesota...Northwest Iowa...Far Northeast Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141110Z - 141600Z

SUMMARY...Northward expansion of warm-advection with approaching
mid-level energy to maintain localized 1.5"/hr rates and localized
2-3" totals as it nears lower FFG areas further east.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop shows the northward expansion
of the warm advective over-running induced convection shows some
overall warming as more individualized cores start to further
cool. This occurred with a secondary surge of warm-advection,
speed increase over the last hour or so noted by increased
upstream (SW) low Cu/Tcu field starting to intersect with the
first convective wave. VWP also shows a steady increase of
southerly 850mb winds while maintaining the favorable veered low
level shear environment for weak rotating updrafts. This further
helps to isolate, but concentrate moisture flux to increase
rainfall efficiency as well. Total PWats to 1.75" and a solid
remaining core of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE upstream will support localized
1.5"/hr rates occasionally ticking up toward 2" in a very
transient sense both spatially and temporally.

While areas further west over SW SD have higher FFG, the slow
eastward progression of the line will start intersecting an axis
of lower FFG values (<1.5"/hr) from Kingsbury/Brookings county south-southeastward into Western IA, where values lower further.
Forward progression will continue to be slow to allow for for
increased residency for localized streaks of 2-3" totals which
even press 3hr FFG values that range below 2.5".

To further support localized flash flooding potential, the deep
layer WAA moisture flux convergence will continue to maintain as
the core of the mid-level shortwave continues to advance
northeastward across the Dakotas ahead of the main closed low
later today. This should maintain the strong LLJ and veered
profile for a few more hours before becoming more progressive
toward 15z. Additional glancing dPVA influence may even further
more isolated thunderstorm activity upstream cross central to
east-central SD, that may intersect areas of this earlier WAA
activity, further expanding the area of isolated low-end flash
flooding risk this morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9xYQ6HCn8Tdg7C0HOfJHmH4DVNKQ50LCztnsOzjDVT7w8ka5FNz56qeaac2dhepZw5R7WDfmRyRZEjav52j331_gszo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DMX...FSD...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45209749 45109614 44359545 42989489 42289481
41849549 41939651 42479717 43429789 44209859
44919846

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 11:51:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141151
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-141700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1281
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Iowa...Southeast NEB...Northeast
Kansas...Northwest Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141150Z - 141700Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding potential continues as focus shifts
southward to more favorable repeating/training axis for a few more
hours. Additional 2-3" totals possible through late morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um shows the NNW to SSE oriented
warm-advective convection has been showing a general warming trend
as diurnal peak has passed and the 800-700mb warm-advection
reduces as the LLJ slacks as the driving shortwave moves more
northeast. However, the southern flank of the convective
complex, likely driven by a eastward surface to boundary layer
reinforcement helped to steepen isentropic ascent plane combined
with outflow from the elevated cells northward. As such, there
remains a solid east to west convective line, with a lower LFC
from Livingston to Daviess to Andrew county in NW MO across to
Marshall county KS. VWP shows solid veering (SE-SW) in the
925-850mb layer at 25-45kts through depth to intersect this
boundary providing that lower convective initiation, as well as,
unobstructed ascent of an axis of conditionally unstable air with
MUCAPE around 1000-1250 J/kg. Given solid available sfc to 700mb
moisture (per CIRA LPW), cells will continue to be capable of
1.75"/hr but reduce with further slacking of LLJ winds over the
next few hours. The orientation of the line from west to east
and weak WSW to ENE steering flow should allow for
repeating/training profiles for localized streak or two of
additional 2-3". Given this is close to or over areas already
affected, flash flooding potential is likely to continue and
possible to expand in a few adjacent areas in NW MO.

Additionally, the eastern edge of the LLJ axis intersects the
upwind edge so additional TCu and CBs are developing across NE KS
into SE NEB; though 3.9um SWIR suggests the ascent plane is
starting to be more flat across E NEB. Still, any additional
upstream redevelopment across areas already heavily affected could
maintain ongoing flooding conditions through the Missouri River
Valley. As an overall pattern, this evolution has been closest to
the the 00z ARW solution though a hour or so faster, given this, a
16-17z ending time frame seems more plausible than other solutions
that have been continuously trying to end the event too quickly in
line with typical early morning WAA known biases.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!--QcDAWLrnO_SVduNmsZwNidbrsziCWW9tj8bHAxGkWd1XcSl54-EnzUD2lqoBlxmX052h1wvG8e0DFxGYXUOoFbLC4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42149546 41859433 40369275 39569280 39269413
39319552 39539635 39989664 40609652 41339622
41949615

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 18:01:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141759
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1282
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AZ..Western & Central NM...Southwest
CO...Far Southeast UT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141800Z - 150000Z

SUMMARY...Increased moisture within confluent low level return
flow resulting in scattered monsoon thunderstorms with rates of
1-1.5"/hr and localized spots of up to 2" totals and possible
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denotes tightening of abnormal return
moisture stream from the sub-tropical Pacific and some weak Gulf
influence through northern Old Mexico becoming confluent across
the AZ/NM borderlands. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis notes enhanced
absolute moisture values with 850-700mb moisture around and above
.75" reaching as far north as the E San Francisco Plateau, while
700-500mb, also well above normal over .5"-.6" but centered a bit
further east along and east of the SE AZ border into central NM.
With strengthening ridge to southeast and upstream jet/shortwave
energy across the Great Basin, this will further tighten
vertically as well as increase over moisture flux. Current
placement of right entrance to 70+ kt 3H jet over the Four Corner
region is providing stronger ascent for increased over coverage at
this time. CIRA LVT values are much higher in the stronger jet
further north in the Central Rockies, but with 700mb flow
increasing to 20-25kts through the moisture axis should support
more than sufficient flux near cloud base for efficient rainfall
production.

Surface observations rising into the low to mid 90s already in the
south and 70s+ over the northern Plateau, has seen a steady
increase of MLCAPEs across the region with a slow erosion of CINH
from the Four Corners southward. MLCAPE values of 2000 J/kg still
remained a bit more capped in SE AZ and are expected to further
increase toward 2500-3000 J/kg toward peak heating. As such,
mountain circulation convection is starting to develop (including
through the Sacramento Range at the far periphery of the best
moisture) and will slowly increasing in efficiency as initial
downdrafts saturate the sub-cloud drier air, but as secondary
development converging outflow boundaries will increase the
overall coverage and rainfall efficiency toward 21-22z. Rates of
1"/hr will increase to 1.5"/hr and while mean flow is fairly solid
at 20-30kts toward the north-northeast, cell motions will remain
fairly parallel to the moisture and instability axis for a few accidental/random repeats that may allow for isolated to widely
scattered incidents of up to 2"+. Given strength of
updrafts/downdrafts and resulting rain-rates over hard/rocky
ground conditions similar widely scattered to scattered incidents
of flash flooding will be considered possible through the
afternoon into evening hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7rFyhXMAzIgJoA6bEag1g6hzY0-0NaF7GQTdqpMlfm8PTl5ZWeSt5Dihn4LRmWFhDsPcKKCOli333Bq-jzZ-uCzBjlo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38140748 37180632 36800512 34990521 34080505
33200493 32770542 32850584 33210665 32690724
31710787 31280807 31200944 31251123 31611215
32351232 33391155 34121173 35111192 35951157
36791093 36990997 37700976

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 23:16:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142316
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-150515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1284
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Southeast to East-Central AZ...Western and
Northern NM...Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142315Z - 150515Z

SUMMARY...Expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour will continue going
into the evening hours. Additional areas of flash flooding are
likely which may include some locally significant impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows an
expansive area of cold-topped convection impacting areas of
southeast AZ through western and northern NM and into southern CO.
Heavy showers and thunderstorms are especially concentrated right
now across parts of central NM (including around the Albuquerque
vicinity) and also far southwest CO near the NM border where there
has been some strong overshooting top activity noted over the last
hour.

A substantial axis of deep monsoonal moisture and instability is
in place across the region with PWATs a solid 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. OSPO ALPW data shows strong 700/500 mb
moisture concentrations which would be in the cloud-bearing layer
and supportive of efficient high-end rainfall rate potential. Much
of this moisture has origins from deep down across western Mexico
with moisture advancing north and northeast around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge over the southern U.S.

Enhanced instability is in place with MLCAPE values as high as
1500 to 2000 J/kg, and more recently the greatest instability has
been seen pooling across southeast AZ where there are already
locally focused areas of stronger thunderstorms as a result of
orographics and related differential heating boundaries.

Meanwhile, the concentrated areas of convection over central and
northern NM and into southern CO have a bit more of a dynamical
component to them as there is the presence of right-entrance
region upper-jet divergence/forcing that is yielding deeper layer
ascent. This along with the orographics and instability profiles
have been yielding some organized bands of strong convection.

Given the very moist and unstable environment, rainfall rates over
the next several hours will still be capable of reaching 2
inches/hour, and some additional localized rainfall amounts of 3
to 4 inches will be possible where any cell-training occurs.

Additional areas of flash flooding are likely going through the
evening hours, and this will pose a threat for locally significant
impacts for the normally dry washes, slot/box canyon areas, and
burn scar locations. Urban flash flooding will also be a concern
from these heavier rainfall rates.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-ZDWwl0cXQHwRhY6AhHi4agYjhDpZqaOq3cL3c7M3munn4iVF3649pNvhFmL6ybOcvWqCJ3-qi41Ib3KzZKci1B0X-w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38250517 37680417 36410390 35160435 33960569
32990687 31920764 31330809 31140900 31091051
31371162 31631233 32231254 32711237 33251176
33921096 34961013 36250957 37510817 38240664

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 23:28:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142327
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-150515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1283
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
726 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Southeast to East-Central AZ...Western and
Northern NM...Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142315Z - 150515Z

SUMMARY...Expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour will continue going
into the evening hours. Additional areas of flash flooding are
likely which may include some locally significant impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows an
expansive area of cold-topped convection impacting areas of
southeast AZ through western and northern NM and into southern CO.
Heavy showers and thunderstorms are especially concentrated right
now across parts of central NM (including around the Albuquerque
vicinity) and also far southwest CO near the NM border where there
has been some strong overshooting top activity noted over the last
hour.

A substantial axis of deep monsoonal moisture and instability is
in place across the region with PWATs a solid 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. OSPO ALPW data shows strong 700/500 mb
moisture concentrations which would be in the cloud-bearing layer
and supportive of efficient high-end rainfall rate potential. Much
of this moisture has origins from deep down across western Mexico
with moisture advancing north and northeast around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge over the southern U.S.

Enhanced instability is in place with MLCAPE values as high as
1500 to 2000 J/kg, and more recently the greatest instability has
been seen pooling across southeast AZ where there are already
locally focused areas of stronger thunderstorms as a result of
orographics and related differential heating boundaries.

Meanwhile, the concentrated areas of convection over central and
northern NM and into southern CO have a bit more of a dynamical
component to them as there is the presence of right-entrance
region upper-jet divergence/forcing that is yielding deeper layer
ascent. This along with the orographics and instability profiles
have been yielding some organized bands of strong convection.

Given the very moist and unstable environment, rainfall rates over
the next several hours will still be capable of reaching 2
inches/hour, and some additional localized rainfall amounts of 3
to 4 inches will be possible where any cell-training occurs.

Additional areas of flash flooding are likely going through the
evening hours, and this will pose a threat for locally significant
impacts for the normally dry washes, slot/box canyon areas, and
burn scar locations. Urban flash flooding will also be a concern
from these heavier rainfall rates.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-5XmIg9Pd_XKZjIAEHdtlbAGvKUkClvL6Vtp-X6clhDWQ-p7wEJ6r8X8kROGoNsW-2StuhMXsZQueg6QRU2QicxPdH4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38250517 37680417 36410390 35160435 33960569
32990687 31920764 31330809 31140900 31091051
31371162 31631233 32231254 32711237 33251176
33921096 34961013 36250957 37510817 38240664

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 23:54:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142354
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1284
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
753 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Southeast NE...Western and Central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142353Z - 150545Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be expanding in
coverage this evening with some cell-training concerns. This
coupled with high rainfall rates and moist antecedent conditions
will support a gradual likelihood for areas of flash flooding
going into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with radar and
surface observations shows an expanding southwest to northeast
axis of increasingly heavy showers and thunderstorms across
north-central KS and southeast NE which is expected to develop off
to the northeast into western and central IA over the next several
hours.

The activity is focusing within a channel of focused mid to
upper-level moisture transport which includes a substantial
northeast advance of monsoonal moisture out of the Southwest U.S.
and out across the central Plains. This is occurring as a deep
layer trough ejects across the northern Plains and allows for a
strong upper-jet to advance across the north-central Plains and
adjacent areas of the Midwest as a frontal system also ejects out
across these areas.

Warm sector MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg are in place
across northeast KS, southeast NE and southwest IA with convergent
low-level southwest flow. A low-level jet will be strengthening
going into the overnight hours with magnitudes reaching 50+ kts,
and this enhanced moisture transport and related warm air
advection interacting with the aforementioned frontal system will
foster an increasingly focused axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching upwards of 2
inches/hour, and the latest hires CAMs from the HREF and REFS
supports some storm totals through 06Z of as much as 3 to 5
inches. This will largely be supported by an environment conducive
for cell-training as convection becomes aligned with the deeper
layer steering flow.

Given the locally moist antecedent conditions and these rainfall
totals going into the overnight hours, areas of flash flooding
will gradually become likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_vRqPbU5lWIJXsIreaWZzISJtdQOzu0Y94zUmy1OV3zY23MIpXp_SlalroTmkflztvPmA15jWCcQyyn1OeVvpRs-Mrc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43009356 42919256 42199188 41389280 40579459
40089614 39899764 40119824 40599821 41399720
42029603 42719473

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 03:12:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150311
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-150909-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1285
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeast IA & WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150309Z - 150909Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms moving across portions of
northeast IA and WI are slowly saturating soils. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A broken band of showers and thunderstorms is aligned
from northeast IA across portions of central WI, which is
occasionally leading to hourly amounts to 1-1.5". It is also
leading to a modest thermal boundary across northern IA and
central WI into the Mitt of MI. This is occurring within a regime
of confluent 850 hPa flow and precipitable water values of
1.75-2". MU CAPE is 500-1000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is ~40
kts.

The three hour flash flood guidance is on a decline across central
WI due to recent, fairly long duration heavy rains. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible over the next
six hours as the band shifts slowly southward due to cell
training. Random mesocyclones are also possible. This degree of
rainfall could lead to flash flooding over saturating soils and
urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-kWRn0bowRHkogR3MEzeSxxf-zJaYzeBErk08kZSjlQygXy33crArfgSTXYiQ8WTit3M_dsAbQSZk6E-jR0dscWlBnk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRB...GRR...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44768976 44758647 43778586 42388837 42499267
44149173

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 03:44:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150344
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-151000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1286
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1142 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ, NM, & far west TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150400Z - 151000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to contract in
scale over the next six hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...The combination of an upper level low south of the TX
Big Bend and a shortwave moving through southeast CA & southern NV
is helping to sponsor upper level divergence across the region.
CIN has developed regionally; MU CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg is still
available for convective development. Effective bulk shear is
30-35 kts near the Four Corners, with less values farther to the
south.

The 00z HREF/REFS show a decreasing footprint to heavy rainfall
overnight, though the disagree on how much it will reduce. Some
westward motion across AZ to the remaining convection is possible
as 700 hPa convergence shifts westward across the region. Enough
convective activity should remain around for hourly rain amounts
to 2" where cells are stationary, merge, or manage to train. This
would be most problematic in urban areas, dry washes/ arroyos,
burn scars, and slot/box canyons.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-RpXcja_FuOkNoT-rTZleTM1GNencrIi4l9bTIT3J9YWUl9GA7nHYy13rgnhRSjfmriOjJc7N4ExY5PBKkwYO0jOwMg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37570837 37240749 36160680 35380704 34630762
34100717 33970604 33500591 32680575 30990567
31060944 31121148 33101285 35381074 36681136
37420899

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 04:33:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150433
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-151000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1287
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1232 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern NE, IA, & far northwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150432Z - 151000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to build upscale
as they move east into southern IA/northwesternmost MO. Hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which
would lead to widely scattered to scattered instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun
to develop across southern NE. Divergence aloft in this area is
occurring under the base of a deep layer low just north of eastern
ND. Precipitable water values of 1.75-2.25" exist here. CIN has
developed regionally; MU CAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg exists, with the
highest pocket near St. Joseph MO. Effective bulk shear is 30-50
kts.

With time, 850 hPa confluence/convergence is expected to sharpen
as a pair of surface boundaries merge across the region. This
could allow for more effective rainfall production. Given the
available parameters, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" are possible. This would lead to widely scattered to
scattered instances of flash flooding where soils are increasingly
saturated near the MO/IA/NE border junction and in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7vP-wTzNJFw5OgS6nCGzMZshqzYkU77mBZ0e694URfy2CXROKXRBleGEMGQ4fzEpaciKZgWHKO2j3lXCUqJTOG6LqoE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42059314 41619056 40659275 40339570 40499940
41169993

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 08:14:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150814
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-151401-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1288
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Midwest/Corn Belt

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150811Z - 151401Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some training
character. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
could lead to flash flooding over saturating soils and urban areas.

Discussion...Training bands of showers and thunderstorms continue
primarily from southeast NE across portions of southern and
central IA within a region of 850 hPa confluence. Hourly rain
amounts have eclipsed 2" at times per radar imagery. A broadening
area of 3-6" has fallen over the 26 hours, which is leading to
some degree of soil saturation. Precipitable water values are
1.5-2.25" regionally. MU CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg remains here.
Effective bulk shear of 30-50 kts is helping to organize
convection, including a random mesocyclone at times.

The 00z HREF/REFS is unclear when the coverage of the heavy
rainfall is expected to peak -- it could be anytime in the next
2-3 hours. The 00z GFS-based Galvez-Davison index argrees in the
areal extend of heavy rainfall maximizing sometime around 09z.
Thereafter, the scope of the heavy rain footprint should begin to
shrink with time, possibly due to the training band breaking down
into a series of forward propagating convective arcs. By 14z, a
bulk of this specific heavy rain event should have passed. For as
long as cell training can continue, hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
with additional local totals to 4" remain possible, which could
lead to flash flooding in urban areas and over increasingly
saturated soils.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6dSQXn_gT5aWgeRlLuRX6Pz-ByriEHxUzfsSUfq_OvIsdtmm4LE4l8Q4JBcR9iQbJDZprMnW4I-NBvvUi_wr2ah_3UI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...GID...ILX...LOT...MKX...
OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43139110 42878770 41408792 40629139 40699815
42079712

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 08:39:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150839
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-151436-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1289
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
437 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150836Z - 151436Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are attempting to redevelop
over portions of central and eastern AZ. Hourly rain amounts to
2" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...The 00z HREF/REFS both indicated that after a period
of minimum that an early morning convective uptick could occur.
That appears to be starting to happen as an upper level shortwave
moves into northwest AZ and interacts with a pool of 1000-2000
J/kg MU CAPE. Effective bulk shear is 25 kts near and ahead of
the incoming shortwave. Precipitable water values remain high,
close to 1" in portions of the Mogollon Rim and 1.75" in the Lower
Deserts.

While the 00z HREF/REFS both had this signal, they disagree as to
how strong of a heavy rain signal this becomes, which leads to
greater uncertainty than usual on the heavy rainfall potential.
Should cell coverage continue to increase sufficiently, hourly
rain amounts to 2" would be possible where cells manage to
backbuild, train, or merge. This could cause flash flooding in
urban areas, burn scars, dry washes/arroyos, and box/slot canyons.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-onVim8VOwTbeJQFgFbSPVQGqOr-dKoqiwUEotX1vA_GPrYRhTgvmf_uB3ojDj5JYznw39P2E3zu6R6jsUxrJGvBje4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35811002 35320815 34070817 33330874 32770911
32030979 31821030 31771094 32521214 34171338
34911316 35571181

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 18:29:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151829
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1290
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...Northernwest &Central New Mexico...Northeast
Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151830Z - 160000Z

SUMMARY...Mountain thunderstorms to expand in coverage within deep
Monsoonal moisture stream to support focused 1.25"/hr rates and
spotty scattered totals up to 2" may support localized incidents
of flash flooding through early evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite once again shows consistent plume of
southwesterly monsoonal moisture stream concentrated between the
South-central US ridge and the broader Northwestern US longwave
trof. Broad right entrance ascent pattern over the Four Corners
has maintained through much of the last day or with a right branch
to the 70-90kt jet core over central CO and sharp SW to NE ridge
from near El Paso across SE NM into the TX Panhandle showing solid
ageostrophic flow to support ascent. Embedded within are the
remains of the MCV from last night's cluster centered over W
Valencia county, which has resulted in increased overall cloud
coverage and suppression of instability rebound this morning;
while the core of the deep layer moisture (per CIRA LPW is more
WSW to ENE oriented across NM into SE CO, though stronger
southerly flow is recharging the upstream areas of SE AZ into the
eastern Mogollon Rim supporting TPW of 1.25" through southern
AZ/NM and through the lower elevations of the upper Rio Grande
Valley. As such, best instability up to 2000 J/kg reamains along
the northwest and western sides of the MCV's inner core cloud
cover.

GOES-E Visible loop shows, increasing mountain clouds around this
periphery including the eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mtns and
Mogollon Mts to the west, Sangre de Cristo and southern Rockies in
N NM and lesser so upslope along the Sacramento Range in the east.
Overall 850-700mb flow is weaker than yesterday with slightly
reduced flux values per CIRA LVT, though stronger further west,
suggests overall activity may be a bit reduced in coverage and
intensity, but widely scattered cells capable of a quick
1-1.25"/hr and slow overall motions (resulting in outflows that
may trigger secondary development) may reside in any given
location for an isolated to widely scattered spot or two of 2".
Rocky, potentailly steep ground condtions (and urban locales)
would be most prone to quick run-off and localize incidents of
possible flash flooding through the late evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4JxSyYj8FD6BZygw731_prRdE296OkkVfXs5KY7GbTTafETZJ2Eyug69TciSvqvEplgB1t6Lwbjv8-xxfJKOkl2CDgg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36970744 36960577 36820471 35530493 33530506
32640549 33110607 33730655 34070670 34190694
34080721 33890734 33280752 33000826 33130884
33680887 33890915 34241082 35221082 36620974
36940883

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 18:57:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151856
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1290...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Corrected for Areas affected

Areas affected...Northwest & Central New Mexico...Northeast
Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151830Z - 160000Z

SUMMARY...Mountain thunderstorms to expand in coverage within deep
Monsoonal moisture stream to support focused 1.25"/hr rates and
spotty scattered totals up to 2" may support localized incidents
of flash flooding through early evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite once again shows consistent plume of
southwesterly monsoonal moisture stream concentrated between the
South-central US ridge and the broader Northwestern US longwave
trof. Broad right entrance ascent pattern over the Four Corners
has maintained through much of the last day or with a right branch
to the 70-90kt jet core over central CO and sharp SW to NE ridge
from near El Paso across SE NM into the TX Panhandle showing solid
ageostrophic flow to support ascent. Embedded within are the
remains of the MCV from last night's cluster centered over W
Valencia county, which has resulted in increased overall cloud
coverage and suppression of instability rebound this morning;
while the core of the deep layer moisture (per CIRA LPW is more
WSW to ENE oriented across NM into SE CO, though stronger
southerly flow is recharging the upstream areas of SE AZ into the
eastern Mogollon Rim supporting TPW of 1.25" through southern
AZ/NM and through the lower elevations of the upper Rio Grande
Valley. As such, best instability up to 2000 J/kg remains along
the northwest and western sides of the MCV's inner core cloud
cover.

GOES-E Visible loop shows, increasing mountain clouds around this
periphery including the eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mtns and
Mogollon Mts to the west, Sangre de Cristo and southern Rockies in
N NM and lesser so upslope along the Sacramento Range in the east.
Overall 850-700mb flow is weaker than yesterday with slightly
reduced flux values per CIRA LVT, though stronger further west,
suggests overall activity may be a bit reduced in coverage and
intensity, but widely scattered cells capable of a quick
1-1.25"/hr and slow overall motions (resulting in outflows that
may trigger secondary development) may reside in any given
location for an isolated to widely scattered spot or two of 2".
Rocky, potentially steep ground conditions (and urban locales)
would be most prone to quick run-off and localize incidents of
possible flash flooding through the late evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9uxlNhGv7O0pfnJyHrhzNhaQYuE34W73CajX6GoKW7JETPIkBYkkU4mtLzmabqVcWbK5NM8h_CFV2IZFVbkZFinT7YI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36970744 36960577 36820471 35530493 33530506
32640549 33110607 33730655 34070670 34190694
34080721 33890734 33280752 33000826 33130884
33680887 33890915 34241082 35221082 36620974
36940883

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 20:54:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152054
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-160200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1291
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
451 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Northern AZ...Southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152051Z - 160200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in
coverage and intensity across the region this afternoon. Hourly
rain amounts to 1.5 inches are possible, which could lead to some
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and satellite imagery are
indicating persistent showers and thunderstorms developing from
far northern Arizona into southeastern Utah and southwestern
Colorado. This is co-located with increasing PWs to near 1 inch
and slightly above, and mixed layer CAPE on the order of 600-1200
J/kg based on recent SPC mesoanalysis. Although the relatively
progressive cell motions are an overall mitigating factor, some of
these cells are back-building and therefore leading to some
instances of training convection that is leading to locally higher
rainfall rates, perhaps reaching 1-2 inches per hour.

The latest CAM guidance suite is probably a little underdone with
the QPF through the remainder of the afternoon based on recent
radar trends. Both the RRFS and HREF neighborhood exceedance
probabilities approach 25 percent in some cases, and some
additional localized instances of flash flooding will be possible
through 2Z this evening, particularly for burn scars, canyons, and
arroyos.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5oKX3hvohumGklg3Hkaf49Gw-kSkeM6xQotCD9LFftmKHRmXDhM2kGTifHDmftNipSUjqWzYDcC7JEgfZaoIoUBORa0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39510717 39070642 38550618 37800625 37250650
37080676 37040744 37040846 36960912 36780966
36231022 35741061 35071100 35141139 35331194
35851250 36471276 37351279 38111245 38531208
38891148 39141043 39400911

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 22:01:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152201
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1292
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Western OK...Central KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152159Z - 160300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms developing
near a strong cold front will be capable of producing rainfall
rates exceeding two inches per hour at times. This may lead to
some instances of flash flooding through 3Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a rapid
increase in convection along and ahead of a slow moving and strong
cold front. Infrared satellite imagery is showing expanding anvil
canopies with sustained strong updrafts with the stronger storm
cells. These storms are forming in a conducive environment for
heavy rainfall, with a corridor of enhanced PWs of 1.75 to 2
inches, and mixed layer CAPE approaching 3000 J/kg based on the
latest SPC mesoanalysis. The 18Z RAOB from Amarillo generally
light and nearly unidirectional flow fron the southwest from the
surface to 300mb, and this type of wind profile will allow for
some convective back-building that could enhance hourly rainfall
rates up to 2 inches or more per hour in some cases.

The latest CAM guidance is showing a relatively narrow but
concentrated axis of enhanced rainfall through the early to mid
evening hours, oriented from southwest to northeast. The RRFS has
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-4 inches, and the HRRR
slightly less with generally 1-3 inches, and most of this would
likely fall within a 2 hour time period for any given location
affected. Therefore, some instances of flash flooding will be
possible through 3Z this evening.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ywgt14LJGxre3M7Rn5dEhgKvbWljAg56XuyJMAaI_mSRjLxJgQNMMEJooxaV85qrlzwqYjWIfLxugBddxWJ4NB0fLk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38189702 38109649 37719641 37149688 36379806
35729895 34749998 34030057 33390106 32320213
32500296 33700270 34610206 35270140 36120043
36749962 37539851 37869797 38139734

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 23:25:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152325
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1293
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northern MO...Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152323Z - 160500Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms increasing in coverage and
intensity through the evening hours in the general vicinity of a quasi-stationary surface front are likely to result in some
instances of flash flooding through midnight local time.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E satellite imagery is indicating the beginnings
of an MCS across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Kansas with
expanding anvil canopies, and this is also supported by regional
Doppler radars across the region. There is a strong surface
frontal boundary draped across the region, and moist 925-850 mb
flow is being lifted over this boundary. In addition, a vortmax at
500mb north of Kansas City is also aiding with lift and increasing
convection coverage. The latest SPC mesoanalysis depicts a
corridor of anomalous PWs at or just above 2 inches in an
environment of mixed layer CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.

The expectation over the next several hours is for the low level
flow to increase some as the nocturnal low level jet advects
deeper moisture into the region. The frontal boundary should
gradually sink south during the overnight hours, but elevated
convection will continue to be possible after the front passes.
The latest CAM guidance suite indicates the potential for patchy
2-4 inch rainfall maxima, and some isolated higher totals will be
possible where convective training develops. Given the combination
of favorable parameters, some instances of flash flooding are
likely through midnight CDT.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_yqU4D4u8xB_XyIghgbZywsbFZXrVOt9vS5yebeb46SjouOC12iQ-PxxYI6ZGASuMM0D5jqxW_JM04hG1nWvae7jYJo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40649424 40609289 40549158 40319048 39788968
38968968 38699054 38759197 38709361 38019536
38049643 38779753 39489744 40059677 40549565

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 00:23:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160023
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-160600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1294
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160021Z - 160600Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms expected to persist through
the late evening hours across eastern Arizona into north-central
New Mexico with deep monsoonal moisture remaining in place. There
may still be some additional instances of flash flooding with the
most persistent convection.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars continue to indicate
scattered thunderstorms across the outlook area with multiple
instances of back-building cells. PWs generally remain in the 1.1
to 1.3 inch range with mixed layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg based on
recent SPC mesoanalysis. Weak steering flow is leading to slower
cell motions that are producing higher rainfall rates.

The CAM guidance is widely varied on the exact placement of the
convection over the next several hours, but the general theme is
for patchy swaths of 1-2 inch QPF maxima, and perhaps a few
isolated higher totals through 6Z. The threat of flash flooding
will be greatest across any urbans areas that have repeated rounds
of storms, along with burn scars, arroyos, and narrow canyons.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6yxSp-JpeJEMGTVI1uL7iArMG2wrvujM_a6t-ZrDqkH3Dr2HpFOIwc55AcoayaEbBLF7U8xFfKd9AHui0f-qfZhr2zg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37000754 36920645 36630514 36110430 35540396
34980388 34780391 34270413 34080449 34000496
34100531 34220556 34550576 35170637 35110717
34760755 34490772 33920780 33310792 32990836
32940872 32970905 33030955 33261012 33721070
34561103 35311111 35931113 36401099 36561083
36851034 36980923

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 02:04:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160202
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-160800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1295
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...central IL, northern IN, southern MI, & northern
OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160200Z - 160800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with occasional training
character have the potential for hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and
local totals to 4". Flash flooding occurrences are possible on a
isolated to widely scattered basis.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows subtle shortwaves moving by
Sault St. Marie MI and northwest WI at the present time, helping
to enhance difluence aloft. The primary thermal boundary
associated with elevated thunderstorm activity stretches from
northern MO around central IL, central & northeast IN, through
northwest OH at the present time. Precipitable water values are
1.5-2.1" per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts is
helping to organize the convection. CIN has developed; MU CAPE of
500-2000 J/kg exists near the thunderstorms.

The 18z HREF/00z REFS indicates the possibility for cell coverage
to increase somewhat for another hour or two, which is also
implied by the 18z GFS-based Galvez-Davison index. The mesoscale
guidance is more agreeable on southernmost MI than elsewhere, but
there are a number of pieces of guidance missing the boat on the
ongoing activity in IN. Given the parameters available, hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible where
cells train, merge, or mesocyclones form. This could lead to
isolated to widely scattered flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_slZCrr4nA8RxXts53qv4E2HdSxzNri74nvnGNNUdQ8lTHpAqDMdtFm-AHebBYFr9YtLW6DIWFTg3_uKvgdJbmS2zk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...
LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42758277 41718107 40778451 39908709 39148984
40909109 41518862 42258581

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 03:20:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160319
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160858-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1296
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of KS & MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160318Z - 160858Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain continue
across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional
local totals to 5" are possible, which would lead to widely
scattered to scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Subtle upper level shortwaves across central NE and
northwest WI are helping to aid upper level difluence regionally.
There is a mix of surface based and elevated convection within a
zone of 850 hPa confluence as CIN has set in across much, but not
all, of the region. Recent radar estimates of hourly amounts have
been 2-3". Local totals thus far have been in the 3-5" range.
Precipitable water values are 2-2.25". Effective bulk shear is
30-40 kts. ML/MU CAPE maximizes around 2000 J/kg from easternmost
KS into central MO.

The 18z HREF/00z REFS show a strong signal for heavy rainfall
regionally, with probabilities of 2"+ and 3"+ high enough to imply
local maxima in the 3-5" range through 09z. Soils are saturating
due to the very recent heavy rainfall, with storms expected to
move into the patch of saturated soils from the heavy rains a
couple days ago across far northwest MO relatively soon. The
parameters available suggest that hourly rain amounts to 3" with
local totals to 5" remain in the cards. This would be highly
problematic in urban areas and where soils are saturating or have
saturated. Flash flooding is expected to be widely scattered to
scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Kidngkw6XXglZpIinIGlw5CAtMgRYkenwCxqrb9jIIduLtkbPp1lAsSWwBDbkIhlMaefOsYdtdG5RdzCbk7uaI0Q6Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LOT...LSX...OAX...
SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40848871 38829082 37099663 37699775 38899755
40699596 40849201

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 03:54:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160353
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-160700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1297
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Permian Basin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160351Z - 160700Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall should continue for
another 2-3 hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals
to 4" are possible which could lead to additional flash flooding.

Discussion...Radar imagery has shown a series of outflow
boundaries converging near the heavy rain area northwest of
Midland TX. The surface observations show the presence of a
surface low in its vicinity and a corresponding wind convergence
zone. Some wind convergence is also noted at 700 hPa.
Precipitable water values are 1.5-1.75", quite high for this
region. CIN has set in; MU CAPE of up to 2000 J/kg exists here.
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, and activity has appeared to be
primarily pulse in nature.

There is a signal in the 00z HREF/REFS for heavy rainfall in this
area through 06z-07z. The expectation is for convection to
attempt to gobble up/erode the area of 1000-2000 J/kg MU CAPE over
the next few hours. This could lead to cell mergers and random
cell training. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to
4" should remain possible, which could lead to additional flash
flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!83hBNW0wzq6cAxv6buRphW0fmbqAcGRO-32HtqeSiUpW6xwvrEXi_ovB6AlQjdxmWji8txGvfdBydGHb1jwIZKnJtsA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34050163 33910114 32780108 32050152 31560290
31870368 32720316 33360304 33870250

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 04:24:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160424
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-160952-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1298
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Southwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160422Z - 160952Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage
overnight. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible where cells can
sit, merge or briefly train.

Discussion...An upper level trough whose axis to moving through
northern CA and an upper level low approaching Baja California
appear to be the main causes for divergence aloft regionally. An
outflow boundary is moving through southeast NM rather quickly.
In the Gulf of CA, a small convective low is edging north-
northwest. Thunderstorms across northern Mexico have been making
a run for the International Border. For many areas, CIN has set
in; MU CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg across portions of southwest NM,
southeast AZ, and across western AZ. Effective bulk shear is
25-30 kts near the AZ/NM and AZ/UT borders.

Both the 00z HREF and REFS indicate an uptick in thunderstorm
formation overnight. The 700 hPa flow goes from anticyclonic to
cyclonic with time across southern AZ. Temperatures at 700 hPa
imply to mid-level capping inversion. A surge of moisture is
forecast to move up the Gulf of CA, adding to the already high
moisture across southern AZ. With outflow boundaries approaching
from southeast NM where some 700 hPa confluence exists and a
possible inverted trough at 700 hPa to the northeast of the small
convective low in the Gulf of CA incoming from northwest Mexico,
there are reasons to believe the increasing signal for heavy
rainfall with time in the mesoscale guidance. Should enough
convective coverage materialize, hourly rain amounts to 2" would
be possible where cells sit, merge, or manage to train. This
would be problematic in urban areas, dry washes/arroyos, burn
scars, and slot/box canyons.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!67o447yDzPS4FTRQg1KkrXDmwb1eScyzJIHJWkpxcAIY06K9-OWA00_-IFYeKrvCdEr2XC4xO8h8yyXp2v3US1uKIuw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34891191 33390870 34820737 34270412 32150479
30580495 31120617 31261055 31511141 32911268
34561321

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 06:19:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160619
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-160917-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1299
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of IN & OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160617Z - 160917Z

Summary...A band of showers and thunderstorms could persist for a
few more hours as it moves/shifts farther into western OH. Hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" remain possible,
which could lead to additional flash flooding.

Discussion...Elevated showers and thunderstorms have shown some
training character as the group moves east-southeast under the
base of a weak upper level shortwave across the Mitt of MI. It
lies behind an outflow boundary across portions of eastern IN and
far western OH and within a region of 850 hPa confluence.
Precipitable water values are 1.7-2" per GPS data. It is
persisting northeast of a pool of 500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE.
Effective bulk shear is 25 kts, which is aiding its convective
organization.

The 00z HREF/REFS have no concept of this activity. The 00z ARW2
and 00z hi-res NAM have it, but somewhat to the north of where
it's located. Until it can fade, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" remain possible. Used a three hour horizon for
the time being due to uncertainty concerning how long it will
persist.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9J7VF6gpfn2a06tzbIS8uvBIZ7Cd8IvfHi7OJiBsv33ZsgIKBQvuBZ7xhYMKTIXq3gBXqXO67uGQLkJOPV0cEBoUJ-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40758524 40538364 40238308 39728343 40208626
40578666

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 08:11:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160811
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161409-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1300
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Plains & Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160809Z - 161409Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of the
Midwest into mid-morning. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
additional totals to 4" remain possible, which could lead to
widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Weak shortwaves aloft continue to ripple poleward of
a thermal boundary stretching from the Central/Southern Plains
across portions of the Midwest and KY. Segments of thunderstorms
continue to train occasionally elevated over the boundary.
Precipitable water values of 2-2.25" exist here. MU CAPE of
500-1500 J/kg exist near and upstream of the convection.
Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts exists, which is organizing
occasional mesocyclones and periods of training.

The 00z HREF/REFS indicate that the convective band will shrink in
scale with time, with greatest persistence in and near northwest
MO. This is due to MU CAPE erosion over time in locations farther
to the east. Given the ingredients available, hourly rain amounts
to 2.5" with additional totals to 4" remain possible. Due to a
broadening area of 3-6" of rainfall so far, soils are becoming
increasingly saturated from northeast KS across northern MO into
western IL, and flash flood guidance in many of those locations is
decreasing. Flash flooding occurrences could be widely scattered,
due to the shrinking heavy rain footprint over time.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8keuxRDFRC9ou4JwwRzAM4jI0Wv0z9EzfLAK7b2fHjajQ8NDvp1FkdpG4tCu74mxmc4nrFVfXVzn6cvGaFpWrO0RjU4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...IND...LOT...LSX...
OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40949161 40828840 40118649 39178606 38928666
38798860 38779166 38759588 39079804 39909702
40249623 40759440

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 08:37:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160837
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-161435-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1301
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...In and near portions of UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160835Z - 161435Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are slowly growing in coverage
in and near UT. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Divergence aloft sponsored by an upper level low
forming in southern OR along with its trailing, progressive
Western Trough have led to a slow uptick in convection, first in
eastern NV and now across portions of UT. This has occurred
within a somewhat confluent flow at 700 hPa. There has been some
erosion of CIN; MU/ML CAPE is in the 1000-2000 J/kg range.
Precipitable water values are 0.75-1.25", high for the Great
Basin. Effective bulk shear of 25-45 kts is aiding convective
organization.

The mean 850-400 hPa flow is about 10 kts weaker than the 700 hPa
inflow into the area, which would tend to aid rainfall efficiency.
With the upper low in southern OR forecast to drop southward, the
low-level flow is expected to back which would normally keep
showers and thunderstorms from shifting eastward. There is good
agreement in the guidance for pockets of heavy rainfall in and
near UT into early to mid-morning. Given the ingredients
available, hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible where cells
merge or train. These amounts would be problematic in urban
areas, dry washes/arroyos, slot/box canyons, and burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!612ve20XUhVgMEKq68L2813hEVZ3yv6kOpF4U2nexcSDuZukN6aJP8lPpe3GNjWdi3IWwdS3VtTEb62Gt6lpSUQqCZ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...LKN...PIH...RIW...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42511038 42270977 40980861 39870727 38820744
38210816 38410913 38241062 37201284 37761445
38911438 40101268 41581204

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 09:04:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160903
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-161301-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1302
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
502 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of Far West TX & Southern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160901Z - 161301Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could lead
to flash flooding over the next four hours. Hourly rainfall
amounts to 2" remain possible.

Discussion...An outflow boundary from thunderstorms in northern MX
has led to new activity overspreading portions of the TX Big Bend
and southern NM, heading towards a surface convergence zone in NM.
The activity is entering a confluent zone at 700 hPa and lies
west of an upper level low in Central TX. MU CAPE is 500-2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is under 25 kts. Precipitable water
values are 1.25-1.5", high for the region.

The 700 hPa confluence zone is expected to shift somewhat westward
with time across NM, while the convective activity erodes the
instability field and eventually forward propagates into a more
stable air mass in central NM. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are
possible where cells merge or manage to train. The signal in the
mesoscale guidance, which is too far north, fades around 12z.
Since activity is south/less progressed than what was anticipated
by the guidance, used a four hour window going to 13z instead.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9nRydt-hD7O5TgPD68V2ShHcavoV_JWb2AQIYQc6RkgxtcSbQlx1hX6oSl6VrdAmqn8iYfJC5MSDq1zYX5lNEIqhgLo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34680685 34280518 32350422 31010405 30400495
30420504 31190613 31660672 31660807 31190818
31120859 31200979 31870978 33000910 34060810

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 14:41:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161440
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-161835-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1303
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...southeastern to central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161438Z - 161835Z

Summary...High short term rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in
15 minutes may produce flash flooding across portions of
southeastern to central AZ over the next 3-4 hours.

Discussion...14Z infrared satellite and radar imagery identified
an MCV in southeastern AZ, over northern Cochise County, advancing
toward the NNW. An area of thunderstorms containing cooling cloud
tops was observed near and just ahead of this feature over
southeastern AZ, containing a history of observed rainfall of 0.5
to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes. While estimated MLCAPE was less than
500 J/kg over southeastern AZ (per 14Z SPC mesoanalysis data),
higher values of 500-1000 J/kg were in place over central AZ (~650
J/kg on the 12Z PSR sounding).

Given the degree of anomalous moisture in place across AZ with
standardized anomalies of precipitable water displaying 2 to 3+
this morning, even minor contributions from daytime heating will
help to increase instability across a broad region of AZ into the
early afternoon. Forcing ahead of the MCV coupled with mean
southerly flow may allow for brief repeating/training of cells
over the next few hours. Additional convective development will be
possible into central AZ by ~17Z, per the 11-13Z HRRR cycles,
where the PSR sounding showed only weak CIN. Total rainfall
through 19Z of 1-2 inches is expected, although potential for
isolated totals over 2 inches will be possible in situations where
training is able to persist a bit longer than 15-30 minutes.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9pFaY64fZnXilEV38hsxsEgXneuKTnXXdNfIhsDc-SyNxuwsDzxMZooUclBoEGD6kuVq6DvTCCtIzNF3W8llxo5mD2c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35551166 35281021 34760915 33610889 32520927
32171008 32311101 32931186 33961236 34991226

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 17:20:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161719
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1304
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
117 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...northern AZ, southern/eastern UT into western CO
and northwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161715Z - 162315Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and training of thunderstorms will likely
allow for at least a couple of areas of flash flooding across
portions of northern AZ into southern/eastern UT, western CO and
northwestern NM through 23Z. High rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0
inches in 15 to 30 minutes are expected.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 1645Z showed mostly
clear skies across the Four Corners region into much of southern
UT with maturing cumulus along the regions of higher terrain from
northern AZ into central/southern UT and the early stages of
convective initiation. The region contained high precipitable
water values represented by widespread standardized anomalies of
+1.5 to +3.0 via blended TPW imagery and 12Z model analyses. This
was due to the Four Corners region being favorably positioned
between a strong mid-level ridge over the Southeast and low over
northern CA, resulting in deep-layered low to mid-level flow from
the south to southwest. The larger scale pattern also features
some degree of right-entrance region ascent within the upper level
jet across UT.

Deeper layer steering flow varied from 10-15 kt from northwestern
NM to about 30 kt into portions of southwestern UT. With continued
daytime heating into the afternoon, expectations are for
thunderstorms to increase in coverage as MLCAPE expands into the
500-1500 J/kg range (RAP forecasts), aligning initially along
terrain features. With time, deeper layer steering flow will
translate individual cells downstream but upstream development is
expected with areas of repeating and training. The environment
will support high short term rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches
in 15-30 minutes and an increasing threat for flash flooding
through the afternoon. Storm total rainfall through 00Z of 1 to 2
inches is generally expected, but localized totals over 2 inches
will also be possible. Areas of flash flooding will be most likely
where overlap of heavy rain occurs with small streams, slot
canyons and normally dry washes.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4M3UoOj4b3yQL55ZnvCTDfpWxTU3upBj5FQrvubeGtpYOFpztbn4zdQiansYv2zEKD5TelM3ZMsj_HPKb6z5VMId8W0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40330973 39950862 38600764 37300762 36180847
35771006 36141162 36481345 36841377 37601363
39041190 40111114

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 18:24:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161824
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-170015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1305
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...southern to north-central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161821Z - 170015Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are
expected across a large portion of AZ through the early evening
with high short term rates of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches in 15 minutes.
Considerable to life-threatening impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and regional radar imagery
has shown a steady increase in the coverage of thunderstorms from
central to south-central AZ over the past 60-90 minutes within an
anomalously moist environment containing precipitable water (PW)
values near 1 inch in northern AZ to over 2 inches just south of
the border and north of the Gulf of California. These PW values
were 2 to 4 standard deviations above the mean for mid-September.
Meanwhile, the 18Z SPC mesoanalysis showed MLCAPE of 500 to 1500
J/kg across much of AZ with a local max near 2000 J/kg in
southwestern AZ.

The region was favorably positioned between mid-level ridging over
the Southeast and a closed low over northern CA with steering flow
oriented from the south to southwest at roughly 10-20 kt. To the
south, a well-defined circulation was seen in visible imagery over
western Sonora near 29N 112W. In addition, RAP analyses showed a
50-75 kt upper level jet max over western to northern AZ, placing
portions of AZ within the divergent right-entrance region,
increasing broader scale ascent.

Over the next 2-4 hours, thunderstorms will continue to increase
in coverage over central to northern AZ within the regions of
higher terrain, while development expands over southern AZ, out
ahead of the advancing mid-level vorticity max over western
Sonora. The kinematic and thermodynamic environment will favor
areas of repeating and training storms with 15-minute rainfall of
0.5 to 1.0 inches (locally higher). These high short term rates
will force flash flood concerns into low lying and urban areas,
small stream and normally dry washes with 1 to 2 inches in an
hour. Given the favorable setup, areas of flash flooding are
expected to rise to the considerable level with potentially
life-threatening impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Y6KywDGGRq-VeYLiKQLoWothF0Djrn1qt_sNzjKVIJYvj_GTL_L7BrG377C8SQ_rirDqMIOR5eg-jdiFR9P-8R3CNs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36801320 36471185 36081072 35960994 35510925
33600940 31951022 31381130 31621243 32091383
33231440 34871446 36451394

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 19:05:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161904
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1306
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern AZ...West-Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161902Z - 170100Z

SUMMARY...Enhanced monsoonal moisture in place across the southern
Rockies will fuel the development of scattered to numerous heavy
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. A few
instances of flash flooding are likely through 01Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a gradual
increase in convection across the outlook area during the midday
hours. Residual cloud cover from yesterday's storms has been a
mitigating factor thus far in new storm development, but recent
GOES-W visible satellite imagery is showing more breaks in the mid
level cloud deck, and this is allowing more convection to develop.
This trend should continue over the next several hours and allow
the lower troposphere to destabilize further, with mixed layer
CAPE rising to the 750-1250 J/kg range with CIN lowering with
time. Precipitable water values of 1 to 1.5 inches per recent SPC
mesoanalysis also remain anomalously high. Widespread ascent is
also being provided by a 500 mb vortmax along the NM/AZ border,
and a separate vorticity center over Sonora that is approaching
southern Arizona.

The CAM guidance is varied on the exact placement of the
convection over the next several hours, but the general theme is
for patchy swaths of 1-3 inch QPF maxima where the greatest
concentration of storms develop. Parts of the region, particularly
across portions of north-central New Mexico, had multiple rounds
of heavy rain over the past 24 hours, and this will make those
areas more susceptible to flooding. This will also be a concern
across any urbans areas that have repeated rounds of storms, along
with burn scars, arroyos, and narrow canyons. Some instances of
flash flooding are likely west of Interstate 25, and possible
elsewhere in the outlook area.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6KXj5wEehMhYGzzrmsgE-JPp4h9EWSeksIK4bj4XfK5pxKtjiDGC0RRICgXsY9ioBFkJXD5IQ0WYZ9QAiljABcK09I8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37000551 36770446 35780446 34760464 33750484
32740541 31960575 31600605 31580639 31730684
31750742 31740785 31610808 31270816 31220900
31301044 31771029 32650984 33430947 34380917
35400917 35860909 36040864 36280821 36650793
36900775 36980717

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 22:42:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162241
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-170200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1307
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
636 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern IL...Southern IN...Western OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162236Z - 170200Z

Summary...A broken line of thunderstorms stretched from WSW to ENE
in the vicinity of a stationary front is expected to remain in
place over the next few hours. Some back-building cells may
produce high enough rainfall rates to result in some instances of
flooding through 2Z this evening.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are showing a broken line of
strong convection stretched from southern Illinois to western
Ohio. These storms are firing along a nearly stationary surface
front, and the deep layered westerly flow on the northern
periphery of the upper ridge is resulting in some back-building
cells over the past couple of hours. Infrared satellite imagy is
also showing expanding anvil canopies and colder cloud tops with
improving overall organization. These storms are also forming in a
corridor of elevated PWs near 2 inches an mixed layer CAPE of
2000-2500 J/kg based on recent SPC mesoanalysis.

The general expectation going forward this evening is for some
additional rainfall totals of 1 to locally 3 inches in the general
vicinity of the Interstate 70 corridor through 2Z as the overall
line moves very slowly to the southeast, with some instances of
flooding possible. This is supported by recent runs of the HRRR
and RRFS, and this activity should gradually wane in intensity
later this evening as instability decreases.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_1-lU89vfVkmUJOtjZ6OwwI8HFVKIYFtgBfh6jfWi9PFyWdSCcU0xTQurWr52gz0unskXFLRSOG4Y1SfInl1uNzWcX0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LSX...PAH...
PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41058200 40138199 39118387 38698577 38338737
38288894 38428943 38838974 39128947 39368848
39618731 40318487 40888375

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 23:38:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162338
FFGMPD
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-170400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1308
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Southwest CO...Northwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162334Z - 170400Z

SUMMARY...Additional repeating and training of thunderstorms is
expected for the next several hours across much of central and
southern Utah, and extending into adjacent portions of northern
Arizona and western Colorado. A few more instances of flash
flooding will be possible through 4Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars show scattered heavy
convection generally along and just east of the Wasatch Range on
the western edge of a deep moisture plume advecting north from
Arizona with an enhanced monsoonal flow pattern in place. GOES-W
visible satellite imagery now shows a broad anvil canopy extending
northward from Arizona across southeastern portions of the state,
and this is tending to limit new convection there. There is still
enough destabilization near the Wasatch Range to support the
development of new convection, and back-building cells have been
observed over the past few hours. Mixed layer CAPE is generally
near 1000 J/kg and PWs range between 0.75 and 1.25 inches based on
the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

It appears that the overall convective and QPF footprint will
become generally more scattered going through the evening hours,
and this is supported by recent runs of the CAM guidance and radar
trends. However, the areas that are affected by back-building
cells given the uni-directional flow from the SSW will continue to
have a flash flood threat through 4Z this evening. This concern
will be greatest across slot canyons and burn scar areas.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4wMpBcx8MwX4pi2ydtKGX-jy9U26rt90P0iMOr-MG0Fx_AQJziL2LiypkUP7ULdWVzY28tmQqbbucs35fbnYmboVdwU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40490872 40190745 39440717 39090757 38730819
38230917 37441013 36641040 36371132 36841274
37371292 38241255 39041223 39751183 40201121
40480986

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 00:31:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170030
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1309
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern and Western Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170028Z - 170600Z

SUMMARY...Widespread intense and slow moving thunderstorms are
expected across much of western and southern Arizona through 11 pm
local time. Some additional instances of flash flooding are
likely, and the potential exists for isolated areas of major
flooding, with the best chances for this across southwestern
Arizona.

DISCUSSION...The strongest convection across Arizona over the past
couple of hours has been over the southwestern portion of the
state, mainly between Yuma and Gila Bend. A north-south oriented
band of nearly stationary thunderstorms has been producing
rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour based on recent Doppler
radar estimates. This is also within an area of cooling cloud tops
and expanding anvil canopies on GOES-W infrared satellite imagery.
Another area of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is
moving north across southeastern Arizona, and generally more
moderate rainfall farther to the north for areas that have already
been heavily affected by torrential rains earlier today.

The region remains positioned between a mid-level ridge over the
Tennessee Valley and a closed low over northern California with
steering flow oriented from the SSW, advecting copious Pacific
moisture northward. In addition, the region is near the right
entrance region of the upper level jet and therefore increasing
broader scale ascent.

The CAM guidance suite indicates relatively strong agreement for
the heaviest rainfall to occur over southwestern Arizona within
the axis of best instability, with the potential for 2-4 inches of
rainfall in some cases through 11 pm. This will likely lead to
multiple instances of flash flooding, and some of which could be
significant. Elsewhere across the outlook area, additional totals
closer to 0.5 to 1.5 inches can be expected, but this would be on
top of already highly saturated grounds and thus raising the
prospects for additional flooding.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-XLTnF4PYRojQzx4EMzib6hBs_zZcaRMl6g1skF-xKdkjVd-WB0iw8bbtUADkR_PZk5_-gbV5E_kzax9gge5YtN1vPA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37001346 36881294 36611240 36291196 35731191
35051169 34481129 34051097 33701048 33180952
32790943 32380961 32051019 31831082 31751156
31891269 32341412 32641464 33341492 34721481
35741457 36381436 36811393

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 04:45:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170444
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-171030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1310
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern AZ...Western
NM...Southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170443Z - 171030Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms lifting north
across portions of central and eastern AZ, western NM and
southwest CO can be expected to continue overnight. Some
additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows some
localized expansion of cold-topped convection across portions of
western and central NM in association with a stronger southerly
surge of moisture and instability. Additional areas of locally
heavy showers and thunderstorms are also noted across parts of
central and eastern AZ which is largely connected to the northward
advance of a well-defined mid-level vort center over southern AZ.

Increasing 850/700 mb moisture flux coupled with MUCAPE values of
1000+ J/kg and relatively divergent flow aloft around the east
side of this vort center should tend to maintain the western NM
activity for a few more hours, but there may be some additional
expansion of convection across areas of eastern AZ as stronger
forcing more directly tied into the vort center crosses this
region. Some of these convective elements may advance up into
southwest CO as well later in the night as deeper layer
subtropical moisture transport continues to advance north and
interacts with the higher terrain of the San Juan mountains.

The stronger convective elements will be capable of producing as
much as 1 inch of rain in 30 minutes given the level of deep
moisture through the vertical column which is quite impressive in
the 700/300 mb layer based on the latest OSPO ALPW data. This
enhanced rainfall efficiency setup will continue overnight, and
the latest experimental WoFS guidance along with the 00Z HREF
suite of guidance suggests potentially an additional 1.5 to 2+
inches of rain going through the predawn hours.

Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible as a result,
and especially for the more sensitive dry wash, burn scar and
narrow canyon locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8INGbWD3K34LviwQdinDIKu7-g3oNXh2r9YG6gfTzvW3mBIUs-fapDSbgsLSXCaPgddsBsKdyycFD9tdNhGf3Z14010$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37870723 37410637 36210618 34910670 33740683
33020720 32770802 32870946 32001116 32341221
33311250 34451205 35351128 36600991 37590863

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 06:27:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170627
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-171225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1311
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern IA...Northern IL...Northern
IN...Central and Northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170625Z - 171225Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms with some
cell-training concerns may foster isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding later tonight and through early Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
shows convection initiating and expanding in coverage across
portions of eastern IA through northern IL and also downstream
across northern IN and parts of western OH. Increasing warm air
advection overrunning a quasi-stationary front coupled with the
presence of an elevated instability axis is the primary reason for
the convective development.

MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg along with a 20 to 30+ kt
southwest low-level jet will combine with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0
inches to facilitate heavy rainfall rates. A further uptick in the
low-level jet is expected over the next few hours, and this will
support an additional expansion of the convective activity. Some
of these rainfall rates may reach as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger cells, and the latest hires multi-model
consensus led by the 00Z HREF/REFS guidance suggests some
cell-training potential along and north of the front. This may
yield some localized 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals going through
dawn.

Overall, the heaviest rainfall amounts are likely to develop and
focus across areas of eastern IA and northern IL which is where
the nose of the low-level jet is a bit stronger along with the
pooling of stronger elevated instability. This will yield support
in time for somewhat better convective organization and heavier
rainfall rates. However, the latest radar and satellite imagery
shows convection downstream across parts of northern IN and
western OH which seems to be connected in part to the advance of
at least some weak mid-level vort energy in conjunction with the
broader warm air advection pattern.

FFG values across the region are relatively low, and the rainfall
totals over the next several hours will support a threat for
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5wgPql3HK-eia3d-ZinWrkAXmoNX0cFuRbsORi8vGhvfKMfJdo4tMXV2uCPsPM_HGDU7RTvgA6sgf5lujfKidlV25fs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DMX...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42399123 42278982 42008793 41688575 41418392
41058162 40528061 39888097 39828157 40148432
40378607 40618762 40848925 41079138 41379306
41609391 42109375 42339281

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 09:32:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170931
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-171530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1312
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Central and Western NM...Southwest
CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170930Z - 171530Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
to lift northward this morning across the Southwest. Rainfall
rates as high as 1.5 inches/hour and localized cell-training will
maintain a regional threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows a
well-defined and increasingly elongated shortwave trough lifting
north across eastern AZ. This energy along with deep layer
southerly moisture transport and modest instability continues to
focus broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

MUCAPE values are as high as 500 to 1000 J/kg, but the moisture is
particularly impressive with values running 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal and generally in the 95th+ percentile of
climatology. High WBZ heights along with the transport of tropical
moisture northward from mainland Mexico is fostering very
efficient rainfall across the broader Southwest U.S., with locally
enhanced rainfall rates where areas of deeper convection are
situated. Radar and satellite data shows the strongest areas of
convection generally over central NM, but some dynamically
enhanced convection is seen over eastern AZ in closer proximity
the shortwave energy.

The latest guidance lifts the shortwave energy northward toward
the Intermountain West this morning which will bring much of the
broken convective activity northward along with it. Upslope flow
and related orographic ascent over the higher terrain, and
especially into southwest CO, will bring areas of heavy rainfall
that may result in flash flooding. Rainfall rates with any of the
stronger convective elements may reach 1.5 inches/hour, with some
localized additional rainfall totals through mid-morning of 2 to 3
inches given concerns for some cell-training.

A regional threat for flash flooding will continue as a result,
and this will again include the highly sensitive dry wash areas,
along with burn scar locations and slot/box canyons.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-tDUKQN-yKrHI-qd83kOs8SlSur1nK-l0UdInwXV_8XsqOQ4A8kUKpM2mFy5NkknmCOKwNoielpy5YnruALURblGyYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38710671 38600544 37340481 35200492 32600555
31830659 31810780 32670844 32900933 32631062
33511138 34551139 35811081 36620950 38020818

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 12:25:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171225
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-171730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1313
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...northern IL/IN into northwestern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171222Z - 171730Z

SUMMARY...Some areas flash flooding may linger across northern
IL/IN into northwestern OH through 17Z with hourly rainfall of 1
to 2+ inches. Additional storm total rainfall is expected to peak
near 3 inches on an isolated basis.

DISCUSSION...1210Z radar imagery showed a WNW to ESE axis of
thunderstorms containing heavy rain extending across northern
IL/IN with MRMS-derived and gauge confirmed hourly rainfall
between 1 and 2 inches (locally higher). However, embedded
portions of this axis have produced 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to
near 1.0 inches, owing to the efficient nature of the airmass with
precipitable water values of 2.0 to 2.3 inches. Additional, more
scattered thunderstorm coverage, was noted farther east from
eastern IN into western OH with occasional embedded repeating and
training. The areas of heavy rain were located north of a
quasi-stationary front that extended eastward across IL/IN/OH with
20-30 kt of 925 mb flow over northern MO/IL, helping to drive
isentropic ascent and an axis of elevated convergence to the north
of the boundary. Steering flow was oriented parallel to the low
level axis of convergence, allowing for training within a zone of
roughly 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE (via SPC mesoanalysis data from 12Z).

Short term forecasts from the RAP show that as a 925-850 mb low
over the MN/IA border shifts east, and an eastern TN high
translates west through 18Z, the low level flow across the Midwest
will veer to more of a westerly direction while also weakening
with the typical diurnal cycle. This should reduce the amount of
overrunning of the stationary front and coincide with a reduction
in thunderstorm/heavy rainfall coverage across IL/IN/OH with the
axis of convection shifting east over time. Until then however,
the potential will remain for additional areas of training with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and additional storm totals near
3 inches on an isolated basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8s6itnFpU8ZLvywED8Aee_QgXhfofo7ibN9CZ9tat9-fFLNNTtMBFaa-LLwt6C5Y2wKrUHYOilpbeg5hR-CjuNy7bzA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42318993 42198836 41838611 41318341 40738235
40188222 39918304 40368591 40598766 41208973
41779053

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 16:11:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171610
FFGMPD
FLZ000-172200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1314
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...southeastern FL into the Keys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171608Z - 172200Z

SUMMARY...There will continue to be the potential for urban/flash
flooding across portions of southeastern FL into the Keys over the
next 3-6 hours. Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (locally
higher) is expected.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery as of 1545Z over southeastern FL
showed slow moving showers and thunderstorms impacting Palm Beach
and Broward counties with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches (locally higher). Portions of Palm Beach County near West
Palm Beach have received 3 to 5 inches of rain since midnight with
ongoing urban flooding. The area of storms was located within low
level easterly flow of 15-20 kt containing a zone of subtle
confluence over Palm Beach and Broward counties. The favorable
environment, supportive of efficient rainfall production was
represented on the 12Z MFL sounding with 2.2 inches of
precipitable water and a wet bulb zero height of 15.0 kft.
Favorable ascent was also being provided within the left-exit
region of a 45-55 kt upper level jet max located west of an upper
low ~100 miles north of Grand Bahama and Abacos Island.

The environment will remain favorable for efficient rainfall
production throughout the afternoon but short term forecasts from
the RAP suggest that the axis of greatest low level convergence
over Palm Beach and Broward counties weakens by 18Z with potential
for another, although weaker, axis to develop farther south
through 22Z. Therefore, expectations are for the threat for
urban/flash flooding to end across Palm Beach County by ~18Z and
shift southward later this afternoon with similar potential for
high rates of 2 to 3+ inches of rain in an hour. Although the HRRR
and other CAMs that are handling the ongoing storms reasonably
well do not indicate as focused of a heavy rainfall threat into
southeastern FL and the Keys this afternoon as compared to the
farther north locations, at least localized urban/flash flood
potential will exist through at least 22Z for portions of
southeastern FL into the Keys.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79GEzcdFIiMmf-J2ECfYp29J5pIjrtD8P56MgsC1OXxVAINmAyzAJVlYhnDZWJWRQjRGcB4a5T9LVAooTngkqbpsNzM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27078008 26797987 25897991 25458008 24668072
24338180 24708188 24858144 25088087 25668065
26328044 26698048 26988033

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 18:01:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171801
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-172355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1315
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...eastern AZ into NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171758Z - 172355Z

SUMMARY...Localized to scattered areas of flash flooding are
expected across a broad area of central/western NM into portions
of eastern AZ through 00Z. Maximum hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches and sub-hourly 15-minute rainfall totals peaking near 1
inch will be likely.

DISCUSSION...GOES East visible imagery at 1745Z showed a mixture
of sky cover across AZ into NM with building cumulus along areas
of higher terrain and towering cumulus in the Sacramento
Mountains. The region resided within broadly confluent low to
mid-level flow between a shearing mid-level impulse approaching
the Four Corners and an expansive ridge centered over AR. While
moisture values are lower today compared to yesterday across the
Southwest, standardized anomalies of precipitable water of +1 to
+3 remained from eastern AZ into central NM. Mean steering flow
veered from 10 kt/southerly near the Mexican border to 25
kt/southwesterly in southern CO. Daytime heating is well underway
at this hour but 17Z estimated instability was weak across NM with
only a couple small regions of 500 J/kg, while 500 to 1000+ was
estimated along the eastern Mogollon Rim in AZ via the 17Z SPC
mesoanalysis.

Continued surface heating should allow MLCAPE to expand in
coverage through the afternoon with locations reaching 500-1500
J/kg by 21Z via the latest RAP forecast. Thunderstorms are
expected to form, likely first across the Sacramento Mountains
given the character of building cumulus there, followed by other
areas of higher terrain across the region by mid-afternoon. The
anomalous moisture and southerly steering flow should allow for a
few areas of repeating and training cells capable of generating
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. 700 mb flow was near 30 kt over
northwestern NM which should provide added orographic ascent into
the southern San Juan Mountains into southern CO, although
instability drops off sharply with northward extent into
southwestern CO which should temper rain rates to the north. The
enhanced 700 mb flow is likely to weaken as the previously
mentioned upper wave moves downstream but upstream instability
over eastern AZ into northwestern NM should allow for at least a
few robust cells with potential for hourly rainfall over 1 inch.

While the coverage of flash flooding is not expected to be
widespread this afternoon, at least isolated to scattered areas
appear likely with the greatest impacts across burn scars, low
water crossings and normally dry washes.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9e7ek5pIDxcGjiS_Vuy3TPCGlkOg9r6xEQNQgft9PJo04iHFKR8XbsYgP_6o6ojmUEyWTjpcULCQPHHLZXngvmmqS4A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37750731 37710686 37210580 37020436 36560382
35950401 34470455 33560490 32610506 32280572
32090638 32270711 32550759 32740798 32940844
33110878 33470946 33821024 34261085 34621108
34981102 35471088 36131024 36710939 37450848

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 19:41:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171940
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1316
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Central & Eastern ID...Western WY...Northern
UT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171940Z - 180100Z

SUMMARY...Anomalous moisture, strong forcing and potential repeating/back-building convective elements capable of .75"/hr and
possible localized 1-1.5" totals pose possible flash flooding in
rugged terrain and/or near burn scars.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E/W WV suite shows mature closed low elongating
more north-south across Oregon/N California helping to stretch the
upstream western branch of the warm conveyor belt/TROWAL over
central ID into northeast Oregon, while core of the WCB remains
focused across central UT into E ID/W WY. Moisture values within
the WCB are well above normal in the 3-4 standard anomaly range at
1-1.2" into far SE ID advected on 25-30kts from 850-500mb per
VWP/RAP supporting strong CIRA LVT values across the eastern
portions of the area of concern. A surface boundary along/south
of but parallel to the Snake River Plain is providing the low
level isentropic ascent/moisture convergence to activate
convection across the NV/ID/UT line with a few cells reaching to
-50C. Rates of .5"-.75"/hr may start the initial rounds and with
remaining stronger upstream low-level flow, the potential for
back-building along those S to N streamers in the Great Basin may
continue to redevelopment for favorable repeating through the late
afternoon into evening hours. As such, a narrow stripe or two may
see localized 1-1.5" totals.

RAP analysis also notes that MLCAPEs are rising to near 1000 J/kg
along the western gradient of the WCB and near the narrow
mid-level dry slot noted in satellite imagery, just adding that
slight increase of mid-level steepened lapse rates for stronger
updrafts and isallobaric moist, low level inflow. Instability
while less, still is sufficient across the Sawtooth into southern
Salmon Range through the evening and with upslope flow may allow
for isolated stronger cores. Quick bursts of .5" in 30 minutes
and slower motions in the effective TROWAL may allow for increased
residency for an isolated 1" total here as well.

All in all, the naturally lower FFG values due to harder, rockier
ground conditions, especially within terrain may be locally
exceeded and any intersection with recent burn scars will likely
be the locations for highest localized flash flooding potential.
As such, widely scattered flash flooding is considered possible
through the evening hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8a1fLg-6jXCCQNFMeLdRTA7CopMWWx69n6NYs2NlBfsmIF4xwIT6dE53tVk0idmtT2n3gKbIcvG0iQUphH_lu5mWpBo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...PIH...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44961389 44241282 44401135 44421085 44281023
43600982 42790926 41910930 41080999 40711092
41191160 41691260 41821368 42461415 42991459
43461595 44301623 44961579

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 23:25:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 172325
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-180500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1317
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Much of NM...Far Eastern AZ... Southwest CO...
Ext Southeast UT...Ext Western Tip of West TX Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172330Z - 180500Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered flash flooding potential continues into
the overnight period as strong shortwave energy lifts into the
Southwest. Localized thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr and totals
of 2-2.5" resulting in incidents of flash flooding remain likely.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 7.3um LL WV imagery shows a very
strong/compact shortwave across NW Sonora in NW Mexico with
impressive downstream anti-cyclonic outflow jet streak denoted
with transversely banded cirrus indicative of solid dPVA and broad
right entrance of jet streak starting to enter far Southeast AZ
and southern NM. This is supporting expanding convective
development along the Chihuahua/Sonora border bleeding into the
Bootheel of NM, as well as, some peripherally enhanced isolated
cells near El Paso, TX. CIRA LPW and LVT continue to be
impressive through the 700-500mb layer with LVT signals of 125-150
kg/m/s across much of SW to north-central NM. While the core of
the most anomalous moisture has drifted along and north of the
Four Corners (99th percentile with 4 standard anomaly in central
CO), the trailing moisture axis remains generally along and east
of the mid-level deformation zone from the shortwave energy
exiting across NE CO into W NEB. Total PWats of 1-1.25" are
available and still result in 2-2.5 standard anomaly units through
much of the area of concern.

Full heating and sufficient larger scale capping limited
development today across much of NM with exception of the
Sacramento Range and only recently expanding northward toward the
southern Rockies/Sangre de Cristo. As such, a broad area of
weakly capped solidly unstable (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) remains
and as stronger mid to upper level dynamic forcing approaches,
further scattered convective development is expected through the
end of evening into the early overnight period. So stronger
mid-level flux, convergence should and updraft strength should
allow for scattered thunderstorm activity to support 1.5"/hr
rates. Forward propagation along the axis may allow for some
repeating, though low level inflow of 15-20kts should allow for
some solid back-building potential to further enhanced repeating
capability. Isolated spots of 2-2.5" are possible which remain
likely to induce a few localized incidents of flash flooding as
well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4dOKPzAamlgPDa6-zoPJR8Vscn3ER4Z4NzDmFna_iklC6CwGYvTC_QUnuEiqDSGmrTha1xrKd68wFielcA_bFKMxCQQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38560759 38480657 38170609 37620582 37360522
37420445 37220398 36760392 35970410 34500458
33250505 32130546 31480614 31610675 31600784
31250802 31270927 31550963 32440957 34210966
35651005 36731000 37760950 38140903 38450830

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 01:56:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 180156
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-180720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1318
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Central to Southeast Indiana...Southwest Ohio...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180155Z - 180720Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, potentially repeating but highly efficient
thunderstorms capable of 2-2.5"/hr may pose scattered possible
flash flooding though early overnight, especially if tracking
northward over saturated grounds affected over the last day or so.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop and regional RADAR mosaic has
seen an expanding trend of convective initiation around the
incipient strong cell tracking into Tipton county, IND. A subtle
1020mb surface wave along the IND/IL border west of Lafayette, IND
has helped to back low level flow out of the southwest along and
ahead of the wave across central IND. Surface Tds in the upper
70s accompanied aloft by enhanced moisture (per CIRA LPW) results
in a total PWat over 2", perhaps locally reaching 2.25". Higher
theta-E pooled along the surface front remains conditionally
unstable enough for an axis of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE to exist
into southwest Ohio. As such, tops are cooling to -70C and
expanding along the flanking line to the west, though a few more
isolated, elevated cells are occurring further north as well.
Stronger surface to boundary layer moisture flux will support
rates of 2-2.5"/hr given the ample moisture and while the forward
speed is decent at 15-20kts, residency due to broadness of the
updrafts should allow for sub-hourly totals nearing 2" locally.

Deep layer steering flow is favorably oriented to the surface
front and instability axis while inflow should also be relatively
unobstructed. The uncertainty lies with flanking line or upstream/back-building development. Hi-Res CAMs and trends
suggest this may be a bit more limited, though recent
strengthening an overall coverage along the upwind edge suggests a
potential remains for some short-term repeating. As of current
trends and placement of the front/instability axis, the best
potential for repeating or strongest cells will remain south and
west of the recently compromised soil conditions through the
northern Tilled Plains of Eastern IND and Western Ohio where FFG
values are below an 1" in parts through 1,3, and 6hr time steps.
While, current track will move through higher more normal
2-2.5"/hr and 3"/3hr values across central IND, but eventually
reduce again into Southwest Ohio (1-1.5"/hr & 1.5-2"/3hr). So
while there remains these contingencies, the efficiency of the
rates would still pose a risk in urban locations and overall there
remains a risk of possible flash flooding through the overnight
period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4kzHjYAVL2YtXUKZOLrfKYA3-9dB1TlfuHSaeuknK-P5n38C8NlY_R1Jn4sXx5S-47pmaTLiysiC2byvjJfLMKYWSGE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41148598 40988516 40508379 39828272 39158290
38958360 39178497 39558617 39968691 40308711
41008674

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 04:42:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 180441
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-180845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1319
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast ID

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180440Z - 180845Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms will continue
to be a threat over the next few hours which may result in
isolated areas of flash flooding including concerns for some burn
scar impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows an axis of fairly well-organized shower and
thunderstorm activity impacting areas of southeast ID. This
convection is being facilitated by a fairly strong poleward
transport of moisture around the east side of a deeper layer
trough over the Great Basin.

Elevated 850/700 mb moisture flux anomalies coupled with as much
as 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and proximity of a front is expected to
maintain a convective threat for a few more hours and this will be
aided by divergent flow aloft ahead of the Great Basin upper
trough. The latest radar shows some fairly discrete cell-activity
near the Pocatello vicinity and this is getting some support from
rather strong shear profiles through the column

Some rainfall rates up to 1 inch/hour will be possible with some
spotty 2 inch totals possible where any cell-training takes place
over the next few hours. This may be enough to support some
additional localized concerns for flash flooding and especially
for any burn scar locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9OtoHI7MQg3gxy3RpLPxjfjMHBFr-4WPsrxLTwacUbmWiNX4a-4aq91DiQOoz37D9kMDloZQMrN9Ol10L0amsLeCCVE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PIH...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44591106 44261078 43471094 42851149 42311217
42031308 42121378 42681387 43681301 44461191

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 04:52:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 180452
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-181000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1320
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Much of New Mexico...Far Southern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180450Z - 181000Z

SUMMARY...Lingering clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to maintain a threat for some additional areas of
flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows clusters of locally
heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact areas of
northern NM along with areas down across the southwest part of the
state. The convection down across southwest NM is much more tied
into slow northward advance of a shortwave impulse which is
generating some larger scale forcing. Some very modest vort energy
is most likely the culprit for the activity farther north.

Given the loss of daytime heating, instability at this point is
relatively modest, but there is the pooling of as much as 1000 to
2000 J/kg of MUCAPE down across central to southwest NM which is
playing a role in supporting some of the locally high rainfall
rainfall rates. The PWs remain anomalously high across the entire
region with strong moisture concentrations noted in the 700/500 mb
layer per OSPO ALPW, and there remains a substantial long-track
fetch of tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific up across
mainland Mexico and into the southern Rockies.

Overall, the the 00Z HREF/REFS suite of guidance still supports at
least broken clusters of convection overnight that will persist
and produce the potential for additional locally heavy rainfall
totals. Much of this should tend to remain stretched out in a
general south to north with the deeper layer moisture transport
across NM, but some potential will exist for areas as far north as
southern CO to still see some of this. The environmental setup
will still support some rainfall rates as high as 1.5 inches/hour,
and some spotty 2+ inch totals going through the remainder of the
night.

This will maintain a threat for some additional areas of flash
flooding as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9AZdUDsF-kXdYEEVzT_LPQSSjsTT5S49QTs-Xz4Ukb5cEwoIf2g9I2o3KmqpMR1wWUQZp3MIyFz_PJP_WXqRsKOQGn8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37440532 36520481 35370485 34070510 32530556
31990610 31710669 31630714 31660763 31840817
32350856 32920857 33830839 34740817 36250756
37330647

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 14:47:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181447
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-182040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1321
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1045 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...northern UT into eastern ID/western WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181445Z - 182040Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northern UT into eastern ID/western WY through 21Z. Repeating/training of heavy rain will have the potential to
produce hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches and 15-minute
rainfall over 0.5 inches.

DISCUSSION...Through 1420Z, area radar imagery across northern UT
into southeastern ID showed two axes of thunderstorms with recent
expansion just northeast of the Great Salt Lake. This region of
the U.S. was located within favorable southwesterly diffluent flow
aloft, just ahead of the southern lobe of an eastward advancing
closed low in northern NV. The 12Z sounding from SLC showed MLCAPE
just shy of 1100 J/kg with weak inhibition and 1.0 inches of
precipitable water (PW), which is near the climatological max
regarding PW for mid-September.

As the upper low continues to advance east over the next 6 hours,
low level moisture transport and daytime heating will continue to
increase instability across the region with an expanding coverage
of 500-1500 J/kg expected by 20Z from UT into eastern ID and far
western WY. The combination of increasing CAPE and sufficient
shear could allow for a few organized cells embedded within the
region of expanding thunderstorms which are forecast to move into
portions of eastern ID and western WY later this morning into the
afternoon. Visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies to
the immediate south of the ongoing storms in northern UT which
should allow for increasing instability/convective development in
the 18-21Z time frame with the diurnal cycle. Mean southwesterly
winds will promote repeating cells and training at times, with
hourly rainfall over 1 inch at times (locally near 1.5 inches
possible) along with 15-minute rainfall over 0.5 inches at times,
resulting in concerns for flash flooding. Any areas of flash
flooding will carry the greatest threat across sensitive burn
scars and any impervious/urban areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!52CPgsrSSPNOvq2bblBeN3YVYbbm4phil4IP7iN_Od20i17dg_3LkWImWEFDm6_OjRl25dxOzFzZgUgwwk4c0KjiYxI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...PIH...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44311113 43621002 42060925 39781040 39151209
39281329 39801380 40851398 41751366 42901278
44101222

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 17:20:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181720
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-182315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1322
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...eastern/southeastern NM into far western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181717Z - 182315Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be possible through 23Z
across portions of eastern/southeastern NM into far western TX.
Repeating rounds and training with peak hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches can be expected.

DISCUSSION...1645Z visible imagery and area radar imagery showed
cloud cover associated with showers and embedded thunderstorms
over southwestern to central NM, located ahead of a northeastward
advancing shortwave trough located over the southern AZ/NM border.
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall within this zone of rainfall was
generally less than 0.5 inches over the past 1-2 hours. Farther to
the east, the Sacramento Mountains had been largely free of
appreciable cloud cover and surface heating was allowing for the
early stages of convective initiation within an anomalously moist
airmass (standardized anomalies of precipitable water between +1
and +2). Blended TPW imagery showed precipitable water values were
similar to yesterday from southwestern to eastern NM, but ~20 kt
of southwesterly deeper layer steering flow was slightly stronger
than yesterday at this time.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 17Z showed MLCAPE was 500-1000 J/kg
over southeastern portions of NM into western TX with notable low
level CIN remaining, although the elevated heat source of the
terrain should allow for increasing thunderstorm coverage across
the Sacramento Mountains (at least Otero County) over the next
hour or so. Additional heating is expected to remove CIN for
remaining portions of southeastern NM. In addition, forcing ahead
of the approaching shortwave along the AZ/NM border will assist
with lift later this afternoon. The southwesterly steering flow is
expected to direct individual cells downstream but upstream
development is expected, not too dissimilar from yesterday. The
difference for today is that low level flow appears to be more
veered which may eventually focus areas of heavier rain with
training/repeating potential to the east of the Sacramento
Mountains into portions of the High Plains of southeastern NM and
far western TX where short term model guidance forecasts an axis
of low level convergence which may act as a focus for cell
formation. Portions of southern/southeastern NM have received
heavy rain over the past few days including 1 to 3 inches within
the past 24 hours over the eastern half of the Sacramento
Mountains.

Within areas of training, hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is
expected with 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches.
Isolated/localized storm totals over 2 inches will be possible
along with areas of flash flooding, especially near areas of
sensitive terrain and area burn scars.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4UENgwVZJN0NJUM0GhB3xSPxg9RjQOMNrO7sEyEixgvQI_W6uPw2MsA_lbuTDXOvPBkioABt7sKpxGe8g-TZM0Uqq_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35630402 35540334 34610305 33400328 32030406
31320494 31290563 31740607 32740591 34000593
34890546 35440493

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 19:18:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181918
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1323
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...central ID into southwestern MT and northwestern
WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181916Z - 190100Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible across
portions of the northern Rockies of ID, MT, WY through the early
evening. Localized hourly rainfall of 1.0 to 1.5 inches is
expected within stronger thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...19Z water vapor imagery from GOES West showed the
southern portion of a robust closed low over the OR/ID/NV border,
advancing gradually toward the ENE. Precipitable water values to
the northeast of the shortwave contained standardized anomalies of
+2 to +3. Favorably diffluent and divergent flow was also located
ahead of the upper low over central ID, aiding ascent with ongoing thunderstorms over the region. Downstream locations across the
ID/MT border into southwestern MT and northwestern WY contained
fairly weak MLCAPE via the 19Z SPC mesoanalysis showing roughly
500 J/kg or less, with a small pocket of 500 to 1000 J/kg along
the central ID/MT border. However, the continued northward
advection of moisture in the low levels beneath modest 700-500 mb
lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.5 C/km is expected to allow for an
expanding coverage of 500+ J/kg MLCAPE from the Sawtooth to
Bitterroots into the remaining Rockies by late this afternoon.
Note that areas of 500+ J/kg MLCAPE are forecast to remain
somewhat scattered across the region through early evening.

Strong dynamic forcing will be the key driver in an expected
increase in thunderstorm coverage to the north through 01Z with
locally stronger cells containing hourly rainfall of 1.0 to 1.5
inches. Storm motions are expected to vary but should be slowest
(<10 kt) with northern extent, while cells farther south into
eastern ID/northwestern WY may exhibit repeating and brief
training containing cell motions of 10-20 kt. A deformation axis
is forecast to setup across central ID into portions of western MT
ahead of the upper low/shortwave containing stratiform rain but
with embedded convective elements mixed within. The limited
forecast coverage of greater instability is one negating factor
for a greater flash flood threat, although there are numerous burn
scars located across this portion of the Northwest. Flash flooding
will be possible with the greatest impacts across overlap of burn
scar locations and other areas of sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6SZho9F1Bv55LyigFz-N5A7Yp5xupirDa2pv-CZesOrvaV62_PSEhHB2I7WB9r359PkLjx9nsJJpqams9JR9ijZPfVg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...BYZ...MSO...OTX...PIH...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47641207 46870949 45670888 44410941 43361041
43151344 43921529 44841585 46321577 47481421

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 20:02:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182002
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-190130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1324
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Four Corners Region...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182000Z - 190130Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered monsoonal thunderstorms along the
trailing edge of the anomalous moisture, still may produce in
hourly 1-1.25"/hr and spots of 1.5-2" totals resulting in possible
isolated to widely scattered localized flash flooding incidents
this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad entrance to stronger
50-70kt polar jet covers much of the Four Corners region with core
of last stronger shortwave in the Pacific subtropical feed over SW
NM at this time. CIRA LPW shows core of low level moisture has
shunted further east than this area of concern, though 700-500mb
core remains along the deformation zone from the approaching
subtropical shortwave toward the northeast across eastern Colorado
to the prior shortwave feature in the broadening battle ground
between the Southern Plains upper ridge and the Northwest's long
wave trough. LPW values of .5" with some lingering low level
moisture, support more average to slightly above average .75-1"
total PWats. Still, full insolation and this modest remaining
moisture supports modest 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from SE AZ
across the NM/AZ line and into E UT though cloud cover and reduced moisture/theta-E air in central CO, is resulting in a bit more
stabilized air.

Weak dPVA on the north side of the amplified wave along with
modest divergence in the jet entrance will help mountain
circulation development initially likely allowing for some
maintenance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Modest updrafts
will support rates up to 1"/hr with an isolated/transient
potential to 1.25-1.5"/hr. Most cells will be slower moving in
the weakening mid to upper level flow at the trailing edge of the
broader system, but only increasing residency of any given cell a
lit bit more, so an isolated 1.5-2" total may be possible. The
overall coverage will be further reduced than prior days or
compared to locations toward the NW in N UT or southeast in SE NM;
but localized incidents of flash flooding will remain possible
through the evening given rocky/rugged terrain and burn scars.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9f0cD34fuhD8MyEm_tDzA2CAhZpWCww3l1GyMyFrfExm5isjnZNeKrGHbxDrcgOPy-iO8czePCM3PkvTo7KfnS_Xlws$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40410832 40140740 39410666 39110651 38440632
37580628 37260569 36550546 35950499 35480519
33470636 32930710 32990805 33370870 33800898
33850937 34310994 35350986 37000932 39190989
40170944

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 21:05:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182105
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-190230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1325
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Northern UT...Southeast ID...Southwest
WY...Northwest CO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182100Z - 190230Z

SUMMARY...Multiple SW to NE bands of thunderstorms slowly
progressing eastward capable of short-term repeating and localized
1.5-2" totals continue to present an isolated to widely scattered
risk of localized flash flooding through the remainder of the
evening into early overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite continues to show strong closed low
just west of the OR/ID/NV corner still advancing eastward while
strong southwest to northeast deep layer flow continues to present
broad area of enhanced moisture flux across the remaining warm
sector across much of N UT into SE ID and W WY. CIRA LVT analysis
shows a narrower core of 850-700mb plume across W UT to SE ID with
50-75 kg/m/s while overlayed with the broader 700-500 moisture
flux at similar ranges. Total PWats in the plume range from
.75-1" or about 1.5-2 std dev from normal helping to increase
rainfall efficiency/moisture loading to the convective cores that
are present. GOES-E Visible imagery shows a weaker line back
near the advancing cold front just west of the NV/UT border with
much stronger line advancing toward/through the N UT I-15 corridor
back into the E Bonneville Flats; advancing eastward slowly within
the broad height-falls aloft at 5-10kts though individual cells
are lifting north-northeast at 25-30, presenting short-term
opportunities for localized repeating of stronger cores. Strong
diffluence and speed divergence will further help to maintain the clusters/convective lines with back-sheared outflow anvils
expected and with bulk shear over 50kts, weak rotation may further
enhanced localized rainfall rate/efficiency due to increased
moisture flux convergence in speed and direction.

Instability is maximized around 1250-1500 J/kg (MLCAPE) across N
UT, but an west to east axis also remains along/north of the Unita
Range before broadening again near the leading SW-NE convective
line across north-central CO into south-central WY (500-1000
J/kg). Stronger cells lead this line, but remain quickly moving.
GOES-E Visible, notes a small gap from this initial line, but 2-3
more lines of cells across the Unita Range exist. Each with a
capability of a quick .25-.5" before moving through, but random
repeating may allow for localized 1-1.5" totals before the main
line adds up to another .5". So a scattered/buck-shot appearance
of 1-2" localized maxima should dot N UT/SW WY and NW CO for the
remainder of the evening. So isolated to scattered incidents of
localized flash flooding will remain possible this evening
especially in urban, rugged/steep terrain and recent burn scar
areas.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7WNtiBjzhiZU5xGFF4fmU9_0e6QTTIe4HjSvJB9XXpYxNTWIoMPiWm-trGxz1W52RQQcDbZc7b4NZnZcWVt6Myoo0pA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...GJT...PIH...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43200970 42640907 42290852 41940759 41040713
40280719 40040852 39371086 39181163 39151269
39471371 40331389 42381281 43041122

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 00:32:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190031
FFGMPD
MTZ000-IDZ000-190600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1326
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Central Idaho...Southwest to south-central
Montana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190030Z - 190600Z

SUMMARY...Strong dynamics with unstable, back-building environment
to encourage slow moving/stationary cells capable of 1-1.25"/hr
rates and focused spots of 2"+ and possible widely scattered
incidents of flash flooding possible through early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of the upper low near the
OR/ID/NV line is shifting northeast under the influence of a
stronger, maturing vorticity center likely to take up residency as
the main pivot over the coming hours in central ID within the
Salmon River/Sawtooth ranges. Broad diffluent upper level flow
will maintain strong divergence and upper-level support for any
thunderstorms that continue to develop along the deformation zone
from Valley/Idaho county, ID northeast to Powell and east to
Meagher in MT. A few internal bands within the eastern quadrant
of the cyclone will have greater mid to low level confluence
across the Beaverhead Range as well as along the the most external
across south-central MT. Currently waning Visible imagery shows a
few isolated overshooting tops breaking through the cirrus along
the aforementioned bands, with greater number further east into
central MT. Strong low-level flow and veering profiles provide
weak rotation to support backbuilding along the flank as well as
increased moisture flux convergence.

The deformation zone axis also resides the highest remaining
conditionally unstable air and deepest moisture (increasing due to
depth of moisture into the MT High Plains). A band of 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE will be utilized and exhausted over the next few
hours and support cells capable of 1-1.25"/hr rates given
.75-1.25" of Total PWats (from the upper low center to the eastern
periphery, respectively). So cells along the downstream edge will
have higher potential but may also have greatest north-south
drift. Residency will be elongated due to the favorable
inflow/confluent inflow to support localized 2", perhaps an
isolated 2.5" total but as with loss of heating/instability rates
will reduce with time but overall coverage of moderate rainfall
should fill in the gaps through the deformation zone. All
considered, the risk of flash flooding will be more likely earlier
with the stronger, initial intense rates, but as with smaller
cores will be localized and widely scattered within the entire MPD
domain.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7mGqsNLMWVe_vwoaQd9Ot6071jBEXNG-YPlRHbOKZt125neOw7RRiQdmh8mfNbzlkXsIFdZyOmcUubXOPi-t5LIulvQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...BYZ...MSO...PIH...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47391110 46860887 46010785 45230771 45090839
45050987 45051107 44761134 43971211 43611352
43551467 43861556 44771628 45791599 46721496
47301309

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 01:17:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190111
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-190700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1327
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...South-central & Southeast MN...North-central &
Northeast IA...Southern WI...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190110Z - 190700Z

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms to expand/intensify over the next
few hours into a linear complex with parallel steering flow
supporting repeating/training. Rates increasing toward 1.5-2"/hr
may support 2-4" totals and possible flash flooding through early
overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR denotes elevated
convective initiation across south-central MN with a few isolated
tops already cooling below -65C and orienting nearly perfectly
west to east. VWP and RAP analysis shows directional convergence
from west to east along the 850-800mb FGEN boundary with SSW at
25kts becoming more southerly near the MS River Valley with 25kts
turning more southeast north of the boundary. This deep layer
convergence also aligns with the northern MUCAPE gradient though
proximity to 2000 J/kg values in NW IA are expected to advect
eastward in coverage but maintain across the Missouri Valley
overnight. A core of enhanced sub-tropical moisture in the
850-700 and 700-500mb layer is arriving from the southwest
parallel to the inverted surface trough and deep layer
southwesterly flow of the ridge before flattening out. As such a
core of 2-2.25" Total PWats exist from SD/NEB/IA border across N
IA which will help rainfall production/efficiency with time. As
such, increasing moisture flux should support rates of 1.5"/hr
reaching near 2"/hr later in the overnight period.

While surface front remains well southwest from a surface wave
near SUX and crossing SW to south-central IA, this is expected to
lift with time and further over-running to help maintain this
elevated band; there are some suggestions for some more surface to
boundary layer rooted cells may develop along the flanking line
across north-central IA, expanding the area of concern a bit.
However, deep layer (700-400mb) flow is fairly unidirectional and
parallel to the elevated convergence boundary and supportive of repeating/training cells. Barring a disruption from surface rooted
development impeding isentropic ascent and focusing cells further
south, a few hours of repeating of cells should support an axis of
2-4" of heavy rainfall with a possible isolated spot nearing 5".

Hydrologically, S MN/N IA have lower FFG values ranging from
1-2"/hr & 1.5-2.25"/3hrs, before values across the Driftless area
of SW WI increase by an order of magnitude (2-2.5"/hr &
2.5-3"/3hrs). As such, flash flooding would be more probable
across MN/IA initially, but peak moisture flux and isentropic
ascent later toward 6-7z crossing the Driftless area, may still
result in exceedance and as such flash flooding is considered
possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9wLg4dDvVM5ENRthnTgS_yVKe61duKMZgLwODIJbR6W8ZQfcwefKOHol2AGwGvavygCntHU7wJEz_PBoQ50KaGEn8dc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44409290 44289097 43568849 42958798 42618862
42739116 42839311 43019457 43429484 43939478
44219417

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 01:37:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190137
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-190700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1328
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
935 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Northwest & Southeast NM...Portions of Western TX Panhandle...Ext. Northeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190135Z - 190700Z

SUMMARY...Few remaining widely scattered thunderstorms seeking out
remaining conditionally unstable air along periphery of potent
shortwave continue to pose rates of 1-1.5"/hr and a spot or two of
2" totals resulting in possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows well defined shortwave lifting
northeastward across west-central NM, ringed by remaining widely
scattered convective cells. 3.9um SWIR shows cells are
propagating outward from the center of the upper-low with some
outflow boundaries well defined; the convergence along which are
maintaining these scattered cells as far west as north-central
Apache/Navajo county line in E AZ and as far south as northern
Catron county in NM. Pockets of conditionally unstable air of
1000-1500 J/kg are analyzed especially along the western and
southern ring of the upper-low and given the larger scale
southwesterly flow will maintain sufficient convergence until
instability wanes further into the diurnal minimum. Drier air is
filtering in from the west, but CIRA LPW denotes solid remains of
higher moisture, especially in the 700-500mb layer but overall
values of .8 to 1" should continue to support up to 1.5"/hr, also
slowly reducing with time. As such isolated spots of up to 2"
remain possible, but intense rates alone may continue to pose
isolated flash flooding concerns through early overnight period.

Further southeast, the confluence/convergent flow along the
southeast flank of the comma-head across the Southern High Plains
of S NM, also remain conditionally unstable with slightly higher
low level moisture and convergent upslope flow from the southeast
support 1.25-1.5"/hr given 1.25" total PWats (slightly higher
850-700mb pool) and a pocket of 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE remaining.
Slow east and northeast propagation in the weak upslope flow may
reduce some residency, but recent trends suggest localized storm
effects are allowing for slower cell motions. Though FFG values
are higher due to deeper sandier soils across SE NM into the
western Panhandle of Texas, an isolated to widely scattered
incident or two of localized flash flooding remains possible
overnight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!99XJXuAiMxpN42qBI3k9tGkn9uLLmOYROu3AXnr7Td7c4hxN-933Ew0SWLyRqu5WHo3jEh7uusFC9JA78q-Gkp5eeg4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36920791 36770584 35060535 34820327 32650331
31480366 30620481 31220621 32020655 33110566
34090610 33960755 33970883 34540978 35640986
36670919

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 05:46:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190546
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-191145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1329
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Southeast MN...Southern WI...Northeast
IA...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190545Z - 191145Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with locally
considerable areas of cell-training will continue overnight. Areas
of flash flooding are expected to continue through dawn, and this
will include locally significant urban flooding impacts given the
high rainfall rates and enhanced rainfall potential.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows strong convection
with very cold convective tops reaching -70 to -75C across
portions of southeast MN, far northeast IA and into southwest WI,
with the activity exhibiting considerable cell-training behavior
and producing very high rainfall rates.

The convection is aligned in a general west to east fashion along
a very well-defined elevated instability gradient situated well
north of a warm front focused farther south across portions of
central IA through central IL. Surface data though shows a wave of
low pressure up across western IA with an inverted surface trough
extending downstream from that across northern IA and into
southern WI.

MUCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg are noted in close proximity to
the main axis of convection which is a little north of this
surface trough, but the latest RAP guidance and VWP data suggests
an enhanced corridor of forcing/convergence around 850 mb where
much of the convection is rooted.

VWP data shows a 30 to 40+ kt southwest low-level jet riding up
across southeast MN and southwest WI which is driving rather
strong moisture and instability transport along with enhanced warm
air advection and related isentropic ascent. This is combining
with right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics for
sustainable deep layer ascent and further providing the larger
scale support for well-organized and sustainable convection.

PWs are generally on the order of 1.75 to 2.0 inches away from the
ongoing areas of convection, and this moisture profile along with
the low-level jet and favorable thermodynamic environment will
support rainfall rates overnight as high as 2.5 inches/hour.

Already some areas of southeast MN have received 4 to 6 inches of
rain based on the MRMS radar-QPE data, and with additional strong
cell-training concerns expected for southeast MN and into adjacent
areas of southwest and south-central WI over the next few hours,
additional heavy to locally extreme rainfall is expected. In fact,
the latest HRRR guidance suggests an additional 4 to 6+ inches of
rain locally. These additional rains are expected to drive areas
of considerable flash flooding, with locally significant and
potentially life-threatening urban flooding impacts. It should be
noted that areas a bit farther south into northern IL may begin to
see some of these heavy rains arriving around dawn, and thus the
flash flood threat may increase here early Saturday morning.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7zwys-3Gwk5jc-8mXYOba-zBsVL0SdjtBjsocrpScvf-tu0dV6wxgMu84IDTScG5RCePj6y8vYhy_C762U6gpflggSM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44259263 43999086 43618873 43178757 42808715
42318717 41948751 41868815 41958935 42329119
43139313 43789378 44169361

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 07:33:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190733
FFGMPD
MTZ000-191330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1330
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Southern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190730Z - 191330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the early morning hours across southern MT. Some
flash flooding will be possible, and this will include potential
for urban flooding around Billings.

DISCUSSION...A deep layer trough and associated closed low center
across the northern Rockies will continue to support areas of
heavy rainfall across southern MT going into the morning hours.
This will include potential for locally concentrated areas of
heavy showers and thunderstorms as stronger deep layer forcing and
pooling of at least modest instability focuses in close proximity
to a quasi-stationary front draped across southeast MT.

A surface low center across northern WY should tend to focus close
to the MT border which will allow for a substantial axis of moist
easterly flow to interact with and overrun the front. This
corresponding moisture transport/convergence across southern MT
along with a strengthening TROWAL signature over the region will
likely allow for a sustainable axis of heavy rainfall, with some
increase in rainfall rates.

MUCAPE values generally around 500 to 750 J/kg along with the
rather anomalous PW environment and associated moisture transport
should support some rainfall rates as high as 1.5 inches/hour with
any of the embedded stronger convective elements that materialize
over the next several hours.

The locally concentrated nature of some of the rainfall may allow
for some additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches by early
Saturday morning, and these rains may allow for some areas of
flash flooding. This will include potential for localized urban
flooding impacts, and especially around the Billings vicinity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9k8uL0gUtSNxkIjf50HotAilrC8DiZ46TnN-or2DOFNK_P9kMKPBVqU9BfEp6CaxS4onzy7v4NU9VKeO3bNi5AA-nSg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 46951097 46920896 46680720 46170626 45690623
45310665 45170761 45140870 45441042 45991152
46471192 46781177

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 09:57:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190957
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-191530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1331
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northern
IL...Southwest Lower MI...Northern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190955Z - 191530Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some areas of
backbuilding and training cell-activity will continue to advance
southeastward this morning while fostering areas of flash
flooding. Some locally considerable urban flooding impacts will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows strong MCS activity
with heavy showers and thunderstorms dropping gradually down to
the southeast across large areas of eastern IA, southern WI and
northern IL. This includes localized areas of backbuilding and
training convection across especially northeast IA and into
northwest IL, and this is also where some of the coldest
convective cloud tops are noted.

The convection remains aligned out ahead of a wave of low pressure
advancing east across central IA and north of a warm front that
extends east from the low center across eastern IA through central
IL and southern IN. MUCAPE values of around 1000 to 1500 J/kg are
in place across much of the region, and this coupled with the nose
of a southwest low-level jet reaching 30 to 40 kts should continue
to maintain a fairly well-organized axis of mainly elevated
convection going through the early to mid-morning hours. Enhanced
isentropic ascent and favorable jet dynamics aloft will be key
supporters of this stronger convective activity at least in the
near-term, and this will also be inclusive of some continuing
backbuilding and cell-training concerns.

PWs remain quite elevated with magnitudes of 1.75 to 2.0 inches
and this along with the instability and deeper layer moisture
transport will maintain a likelihood for some rainfall rates to
reach well into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with even some spotty
heavier rates possible.

The latest hires model guidance suggests potential for additional
swaths of 2 to 4+ inches of rain going through the early to
mid-morning hours, with generally the heaviest rainfall totals
more likely to impact areas of eastern IA and northern IL where
there is a bit of a stronger setup for cell-training and
backbuilding convection.

Areas of flash flooding will be likely, and this will include a
corridor of impacts generally along a line from Dubuque, IA
eastward across Rockford and Chicago in northern IL, and down into
northern IN including South Bend. Adjacent areas of southwest
Lower MI may also see some potential for these impacts. Locally
considerable urban flooding will be possible across some of these
areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!733eSpcKm0OHSnhLTkh--YMuBQRNsJaXr9LUdMtI2fUacublg5wRYwmt1JezF72VdeB9FOFYzZVZkixwoimCTIWwGz4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRR...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43439161 43258952 43238773 42968578 42418473
41658470 41008534 40768621 40658745 40788933
41359189 42009270 42899259

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 14:02:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191402
FFGMPD
MTZ000-191900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1332
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...south-central and southeastern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191358Z - 191900Z

SUMMARY...At least localized pockets of flash flooding will be
likely across south-central and southeastern MT over the next 4-6
hours. Embedded hourly rates of 1.0 to 1.5 inches are expected
with additional totals of 2 to 3+ inches through 19Z.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery at 1330Z showed a potent closed
upper level low slowly advancing toward the southeast over
southern ID with the warm conveyor belt arcing northward toward a
deformation zone across MT. Infrared satellite and radar imagery
along with lightning data showed a uptick in the intensity of
rainfall across eastern MT since 11Z, within a diffluent upper
flow pattern, along a west-east axis located ~25 miles north of
Miles City. This axis of heavy rain was focused within a band of
convergence within the 700-600 mb layer where overlap occurred
with an estimated 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE in place (via 13Z SPC
mesoanalysis data). While ground truth was difficult to determine
due to a lack of observation stations, MRMS-estimated hourly
rainfall was just over 1 inch across localized portions of
Garfield County ending 13Z.

Little change is forecast over the next 1-2 hours with the
latitude of the elevated convergence axis, but beyond that, the
axis is forecast to become disrupted by recent runs of the RAP
with some southward displacement and fragmentation given the
forecast development of embedded circulations within the zone of
convergence. The result will be continued steady rainfall for much
of the region but with embedded pockets of higher hourly rainfall
totals (1.0 to 1.5 inches) where locally higher instability is
encountered. There will also a notable upslope component with
easterly to northeasterly low level flow into the higher terrain
west and northwest of Billings. Additional 6-hour rainfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches are expected but localized totals of 2 to 3+
inches will also be possible through 19Z. Given overlap with heavy
rainfall that has already occurred over south-central MT, and the
localized higher rainfall rates over the next several hours, at
least localized flash flooding is considered likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!__aMifWoQfWFzZu76HSUHNunVLDPGM0YnEmvh803WcFCmcTnNItwlnL9KJd5_fMjeirUPHB_HrDPA7K9iK7uKdELRpc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 47440643 47280471 46960414 45780410 45280484
45070625 45010753 45030905 45140998 45491074
45851139 46361170 46831128 47031048 47240888

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 19:22:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191922
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1333
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...south-central/southeastern MT into adjacent High
Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191919Z - 200115Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of localized flash flooding will be possible
from south-central and southern MT into portions of northeastern
WY and western SD through 01Z. Peak rainfall totals of 1 to 2
inches (locally higher) are expected.

DISCUSSION...Through 19Z, areas of mostly stratiform rain
continued to impact portions of south-central to southeastern MT
where reports of 1 to 3+ inches have been noted over the past 24
hours. This region of MT was located northeast of a closed mid to
upper-level level low advancing slowly southeastward over southern
ID with a deformation axis over southern MT providing ascent
beneath diffluent flow aloft. Water vapor imagery showed somewhat
transient mid-level vorticity maxima embedded within the
deformation axis which have helped to focus locally heavier
rainfall but instability of ~500 J/kg or less across
southern/southeastern MT has limited the coverage of thunderstorms
and higher embedded rainfall rates. However, pockets of
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall near 1 inch have occurred over the
past few hours and portions of the region have received 1 to 3
inches of rain (locally higher) over the past 24 hours generating
at least partially saturated soils. With little change to the
large scale pattern over the next 6 hours, little change is
anticipated over MT with continued isolated potential for hourly
rainfall peaking near 1 inch and localized flash flooding.

Visible imagery farther south showed breaks in cloud cover over
northern WY into southwestern SD with building cumulus or the
early stages of convective initiation. Standardized anomalies of 2
to 3+ for precipitable water were located over the northern High
Plains along with building MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (via SPC
mesoanalysis data). Thunderstorms are expected to become scattered
in nature through 22Z across much of WY into the High Plains/Black
Hills out ahead of the advancing upper low to the west. These
storms will have marginal instability/shear profiles but any
quasi-organized cells will carry greater potential for heavy rain
rates. Interaction of cells with 10-15 kt of easterly upslope flow
(stronger over southern MT) may support slower overall movement of
heavy rain cores and hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. These locally
higher rates may produce flash flooding across a limited scale
with storm totals generally in the 1 to 2 inch range (locally
higher possible).

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5dO8K2zRMj-9T-EKfMRJ3Ebju9V_j8tzlsDuLDnb5Sx0rRbpgYiOXDvCQAIY0LCc49OE3U0PuXAFjeQLl6HA41Szsjk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...CYS...GGW...LBF...RIW...TFX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 47300871 47250652 46750488 46030382 44940296
43420252 42730284 42500360 42820457 44370619
45060721 45520964 46091054 46811065 47201007

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 19:41:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191941
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1334
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Northwestern NM...East-Central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191938Z - 200000Z

SUMMARY...Some episodes of back-building convection this afternoon
may lead to some localized instances of flash flooding through 6
pm local time, mainly across topographically vulnerable terrain.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar imagery from Albuquerque is indicating
a recent increase in convection oriented from southwest to
northeast across west-central portions of New Mexico early this
afternoon. There are radar estimates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour
with the stronger cells, and this may be enough to overcome flash
flood guidance values across the region. These storms are
developing ahead of an incoming 500 mb vortmax within an
environment of moderate instability of 750-1250 J/kg of mixed
layer CAPE and PWs of generally 0.75 to 1 inch.

The latest CAM guidance suggests the potential for patchy swaths
of 1-2 inch totals, with much of this happening within a two hour
time period for any given location. The RRFS is strongest with the
convection and shows the potential for someisolated 2+ inch totals
possible. The region has experienced anomalous rainfall over the
past week, which is an aggravating factor for potential flooding
where storms develop. Therefore, some instances of flash flooding
will be possible through 6 pm this evening.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5KKc7CBT02g_EgBEBFKwd2ly2PpfzuUMX0GTzIsTD_nKmfArGgY9LSNswzjFOWRMtb3utGaYGWN5pnlj8RGs3YNJNtQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36490666 36490624 36320597 36030584 35550579
35140593 34640636 34280679 33920727 33660773
33480845 33450906 33620941 33870947 34200937
34620904 34980868 35520807 36340713

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 21:20:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192120
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-200200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1335
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...West-Central TX...Southeast NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192117Z - 200200Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of localized flash flooding will be possible
from the Davis Mountains of southwestern Texas to near the
Amarillo area through 2Z. Peak rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches
are expected with the most persistent storms, with much of this
falling within a 90 minute time period.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are showing an increasing in
strong convection in the general vicinity of a modest drytline
near the TX/NM border. These storms have been rather slow moving
and likely producing rainfall rates close to 2 inches per hour,
and these will likely increase in areal coverage over the next few
hours. Farther to the south across the Davis Mountains of
southwestern Texas, a separate complex of slow moving storms has
developed to the east of a mid-level vortmax with PWs near 1.25
inches and mixed layer CAPE of 1000-200 J/kg per recent SPC
mesoanalysis.

The general expectation going forward into the early evening hours
will be for some additional thunderstorm complexes to develop and
exhibit slow cell motions. Recent CAM guidance is likely underdone
with expected QPF across the region given recent radar trends,
with the RRFS closer to reality compared to the much drier HRRR
guidance. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible
through 2Z.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_4l0c56yEUedhNHCp8MeXAJ7Cr9dEU57XKy5B7CbwvVDpwjF5GeqlmGiYJQznpubqjVlmRvaVyLnUaPCUcRD_LDYhco$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35090168 34940116 34290121 33850143 33230181
32570218 31910227 30610219 30270245 30180312
30260419 30570452 31240457 32090417 32750371
33230343 33860300 34400250

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 01:23:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200123
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-200700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1336
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
921 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Southeast NE...Southern
IA...Northern MO...Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200120Z - 200700Z

SUMMARY...Widespread heavy rainfall is likely going into the early
overnight hours as multiple rounds of thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates affect the outlook area. Some instances of flash
flooding are likely where the most persistent convective training
develops through 2 AM local time.

DISCUSSION...An MCS is developing across northeastern Kansas this
evening near a wave of low pressure along a slow moving frontal
boundary, and south of a 500 mb vortmax. Current GOES-E infrared
satellite imagery is indicating an expanding anvil canopy with
cooling cloud tops, indicative of robust convection with high
rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour based on recent Doppler
radar estimates.

A well defined surface front is analyzed with multiple waves of
low pressure from central Kansas to central Illinois. Near the
boundary exists a corridor of enhanced PWs between 1.9 and 2.2
inches within an environment of 1500-2500 K/kg of mixed layer CAPE
based on recent SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, the mean low to mid
level flow is nearly parallel to the boundary with veering 850 mb
flow directed towards, thus increasing the potential for
back-building convection with locally enhanced rainfall.

The latest CAM guidance suite is indicating good overall agreement
on a swath of 2-4 inch rainfall totals, with isolated QPF maxima
potentially exceeding these values based on RRFS and NAM conest
depictions. Flash flood guidance is also slightly lower over parts
of the outlook area owing to heavy rainfall over the past week.
Some instances of flash flooding are likely within the axes of
most persistent convective backbuilding.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9G_A4V4Z9E6YvMgrbao_73LQ5xrwgmX8ohakeobbH2aOpN6IbUtCrdxgFpx_T2Nf5Wfm36j6YdPGWha8sbKlEqfZdJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41829228 41779050 41368966 40578936 39949009
39889133 39799187 39699250 39569303 39389356
39239411 38709536 38179621 38089677 38099720
38279759 38219765 38579776 38869776 39199747
39499715 39999656 40379598 40839531 41279443
41559355

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 02:10:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200207
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200805-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1337
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern WY...Far Southeast
MT...Western SD...NE Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200205Z - 200805Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms developing and expanding
in coverage across portions of the High Plains and the Black Hills
may result in some areas of flash flooding going through the
overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...An ejecting upper-level trough from the northern
Rockies will be overspreading portions of the High Plains
overnight, and this will bring clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms to areas of central and eastern WY, far southeast
MT, western SD, and the NE Panhandle region. This will include the
Black Hills.

The energy will be favoring an area of low pressure across eastern
WY which will help to enhance the low-level convergence across the
region and especially near portions of the Black Hills where radar
imagery already shows some locally organized clusters of strong
convection. MUCAPE values ahead of this surface low center are on
the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg, and there is plenty of moisture in
place for heavy rainfall rates with PWs running upwards of 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal.

The 18Z HREF/REFS consensus suggests an uptick in convective
organization over the next several hours across areas of eastern
WY and near the SD/NE border region as strong DPVA associated with
the upper trough ejects across these areas. Some rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches/hour, with some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals will be possible overnight. The HREF/REFS consensus
suggests some probabilities locally as high as 50 to 70 percent
for seeing the 3-hour FFG values exceeded.

Therefore, given the guidance and the current radar and satellite
trends, some areas of flash flooding will be possible. The threat
may extend as far north as southeast MT, but generally the
heaviest rainfall is expected to be across eastern WY and in close
proximity to the Black Hills with areas as far south as the
northwest part of the NE Panhandle potentially seeing some of
these heavier rains and impacts as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_ig6u7F84K0-7VAmVuuuvdzLLX7kW1uQaHgrV5Fs6ut5EvrNnwHtMqSemsQS1OiGRKGUCYTUkLZDK9BIY9I1M7ZYMXA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...CYS...LBF...RIW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45440370 45040296 44100252 42970252 42230291
41870391 41950495 42440636 42440822 42810928
43380933 43950730 44630595 45310484

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 03:52:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200348
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-200930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1338
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1147 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Southern OH...Western WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200347Z - 200930Z

SUMMARY...Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible as
some uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity occurs over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows some development and expansion of shower and
thunderstorm activity taking place across portions of southern OH.
This activity is occurring as warm air advection increases out
ahead of a couple of weak waves of low pressure advancing east
along frontal zone.

Modest low-amplitude shortwave energy transiting the OH Valley is
also playing a role with some of the convective development as it
interacts with moderate instability characterized by MUCAPE values
of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg. The airmass is quite moist with PWs of 1.75
to 2.0 inches, and this will be supporting convective cells
capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour.

The 00Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR runs suggest some additional
expansion of showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours
across southern OH, and the activity will likely advance
downstream into western WV later in the night. Some cell-training
is possible given the alignment of the convection with the deeper
layer steering flow.

Localized rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible, and
this may support some isolated areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5xXAefdkI37cyZut6rSx1Iz02hI6QPwAM8CwPkWTrRfEqgkXNNkfY5LgT-wijamYFqg-8eLbqezqJoCkgYllMMzdKxs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40258350 40118231 39828104 39348017 38678020
38398098 38468205 38748331 39208435 39738466
40128428

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 05:09:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200506
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-201105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1339
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern IA...Northern IL...Northern
IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200505Z - 201105Z

SUMMARY...Expanding and locally training clusters of heavy showers
and thunderstorms will drive a major increase in the threat for
flash flooding overnight, and some of this may be locally
significant.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cold-topped convective clusters expanding in coverage across
southern and eastern IA along with portions of north-central IL as
a wave of low pressure and associated shortwave impulse lifts
east-northeast across the region.

Increasing warm air advection and moisture transport ahead of this
energy will set the stage for a more expansive convective
footprint over the next several hours as convection expands in
coverage. Much of the activity should tend to be focused along and
north of a quasi-stationary front extending east from the low
center across eastern IA and down through central IL and southern
IN.

However, this front will attempt to lift north in time as a warm
front as the nose of a southwest low-level jet strengthens to 30
to 40+ kts, and this will allow for convection in time to impact
areas of northern IL and northern IN in conjunction with the
corridor of strongest isentropic ascent.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are already in place across the
region, and with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches coinciding with a
strengthening low-level jet, the rainfall rates are likely to be
quite high. Some rainfall rates based on the 00Z HREF/REFS suite
of guidance are forecast to increase to 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.

Gradually there will be concerns for cell-training as the
convection becomes aligned in a more west to east fashion near and
to the north of the front. Cell-training concerns will drive
potential for localized swaths of 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals
going through dawn and that is supported by the 00Z hires CAM
consensus.

The 3-hour FFG exceedance probabilities from the 00Z HREF/REFS
guidance are very high across eastern IA through northern IL. This
is an area that has seen heavy rainfall recently and has a very
moist antecedent footprint with elevated soil moisture and high
streamflows. This along with low FFGs overall suggest a high
likelihood for flash flooding overnight and extending through
early Sunday morning. Locally significant flash flooding impacts
will be possible and this will include concerns for the more
sensitive urban environments.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6sWCVY2pLq8lBGALntL_A7OU7qc246Sl_4QEN8DnZX028HYw0e2DA380OHdeUvT-A70xYai89t5j03XeMUeYs4aVE-0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42578945 42438788 42208674 41908588 41538506
40958487 40578514 40498564 40498685 40528864
40639090 40879267 41359352 41909343 42269274
42509138

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 08:22:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200821
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-201300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1340
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...Southern OH...Western and Central WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200820Z - 201300Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding will be likely
through mid-morning from locally repeating rounds of heavy showers
and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows multiple rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms locally repeating over the same area across portions
of southern OH and into western and central WV. Separate
convective activity more recently has developed across portions of
southwest PA as well. All of this activity is being facilitated by
the advance of surface low pressure up across northeast OH and
warm air advection lifting up across the Upper OH Valley and the
central Appalachians.

Modest low-amplitude shortwave energy transiting the region is
also still interacting with modest instability characterized by
MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg, with the greatest instability
generally down across northeast KY, far southeast OH and into
central and southern WV. Some stronger updrafts and occasional
overshooting top activity is seen in the IR satellite images
advancing into western WV, and some of these stronger convective
cells are still capable of producing 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall
rates, and especially with a moist column characterized by PWs
locally near 2 inches.

The latest HRRR guidance suggests additional concerns for
repeating rounds of convection going through the early to
mid-morning hours. Some additional rainfall totals may locally
reach 2 to 3+ inches given the higher rainfall rates with some of
the stronger storms. It should be noted that some hires guidance
does suggest some potential for convection to redevelop by
mid-morning farther back to the northwest across south-central OH
in connection to the advance of the upstream Midwest convective
activity and related downstream warm air advection, so this will
needy to be closely monitored.

Given areas of ongoing flash flooding, the low FFG values more
regionally across the region, and the generally elevated
streamflows, these repeating rounds of heavy rainfall are likely
to result in additional areas of flash flooding this morning. The
greatest potential for this will mainly be across far southern OH
through central WV which is where the overall heaviest axis of
rainfall is expected over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8tu0ryKHTHMgJXnDKEOtORRckYlsOAJRtSk7zFEVhLHDlUYcSQOJC20ekyyeURbivdcR-kHDgM_Oj7O7m79mY7ihnYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40018206 39698041 39087934 38527943 38157991
37908054 37898135 38078209 38448284 39028435
39648430 39888375

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 09:50:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200950
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-201400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1341
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
548 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern IA...Northern IL...Far Southern
WI...Far Southwest Lower MI...Northern IN...Northwest OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200948Z - 201400Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms with locally high
rainfall rates will continue into the morning hours. Additional
areas of flash flooding will remain possible for at least a few
more hours as a result.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an
elongating axis of cold-topped convection extending from far
eastern IA through northern IL and also now into areas of northern
IN. Regional radar data also confirms some localized corridors of cell-training, and all of this convection continues to be driven
largely be the advance of a wave of low pressure and associated
shortwave across the Midwest.

The downstream advance of warm air advection and deeper layer
moisture transport in conjunction with a warm front lifting
northward should allow some of the stronger convective activity
over northern IL to become a little more concentrated across parts
of northern IN in the near-term with perhaps some of this
spreading into northwest OH.

A southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts should gradually veer a
bit more this morning and eventually start to weaken, but this
combined with the remaining elevated instability pool and high PW
environment should continue to favor locally high rainfall rates
of 1 to 2 inches/hour. MUCAPE values along the advancing warm
front are still close to 1000 J/kg with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches.

The latest HRRR guidance suggests some additional localized swaths
of 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts, with areas of northern IL and
northern IN most likely to see the greater concentrations of these
rainfall amounts.

Generally, the larger scale convective footprint should begin to
weaken by mid-morning, but the additional rains in the near-term
should still favor a concern for some additional areas of flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9nOVLrtKWN2IB7mVF0Uxuj7WKPAPEmas25vuyNfs3-vqaBcbrkAIKQIiFbL82IwURBXEpngKJwb4KvDa3DtOT9rBkBM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42888824 42728692 42458559 42068462 41618396
41068385 40678446 40718573 40908678 41188805
41298873 41379008 41839074 42409059 42758977

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 22:36:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 202236
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-210430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1342
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
635 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...south-central IL into IN, western/southern OH and
the upper OH River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202233Z - 210430Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible from
south-central IL into IN, western/southern OH and the upper OH
Valley through 04Z. Training of cells will produce hourly rainfall
of 1-2 inches with storm totals of 2-4 inches possible into the
early overnight.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from 22Z showed a mid-level
vorticity max over southwestern Lower MI, tracking east, and
preceded by stratiform light to moderate rain. A lack of
instability was preventing higher rates across northern IN/OH into
southern Lower MI. However, a few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall were observed to the south of
the vorticity max, located just north of a west-east oriented
quasi-stationary front, and ahead of a subtle impulse over
east-central IL. The stronger cells were located within the
northern end of an instability pool containing 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE and precipitable water values of 1.6 to 1.9 inches, via 22Z
SPC mesoanalysis data, along and just north of the frontal
boundary, supportive of high rainfall rates.

Given the recent uptick in the intensity of cells and a forecast
for the front to begin advancing south over the next 6 hours,
current thinking is that shower and thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage across IN/OH and possibly IL within the mean
westerly steering flow. Instances of training will be possible as
storm coverage increases. Aiding ascent will be diffluent winds
aloft, with upper level winds from the west across northern
IL/IN/OH but veering toward the southeast as one moves south,
around an upper ridge axis extending northeastward into the lower
OH Valley.

Training of cells will produce hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
(locally higher) with the potential for peak storm totals to reach
2 to 4 inches through 04Z. Current thinking is that any flash
flooding will remain isolated in coverage, though lower flash
flood guidance values of 2 inches or less in 3 hours across OH may
present a locally higher risk if stronger cells are able to train
across these eastern locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-M6ggkutKOi_8kKJ1lDmxkKqZ8hnTW8JCZeExgq1rabhT1dJGTEPaNwA5FQyVz1sZLXIYTXfYda16CJqFpvOwFRo5o8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LSX...PAH...
PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40988481 40868395 40618269 40198173 39378149
38808167 38388212 38318288 38758448 38778596
38538751 38538895 38738957 39028977 39428974
39718931 39898880 40088766 40338693 40778589

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 23:25:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 202325
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-210515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1343
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...MO/IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202323Z - 210515Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage across MO into IL
through 05Z will likely be associated with areas of training at
times. Within areas of training, hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
is expected along with isolated 6-hour totals of 2 to 4 inches
(locally higher rates/totals possible), possibly leading to
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...23Z radar imagery showed scattered showers and
thunderstorms from southwestern MO into eastern OK, along a trough
axis/outflow boundary within the warm sector of a slow moving
frontal boundary that draped WSW through MO into northeastern OK.
A remnant MCV in the vicinity of Tulsa, OK, appears to be helping
provide ascent across downstream locations into southwestern MO.

The environment near the frontal boundary across MO into IL
contained a range of MLCAPE values from 500-2000 J/kg (highest
over OK) and high precipitable water values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches
(via 23Z SPC mesoanalysis data). As the MCV over northeast OK
tracks northeastward into the early overnight, thunderstorms are
expected to expand through MO into IL. Additional ascent is
expected ahead of an upstream mid to upper-level trough axis over
western KS into western TX, forecast to advance eastward. The
trough will be preceded by a strengthening upper level jet max
forecast from eastern KS into IA, with upper level divergence and
diffluence increasing over MO through 06Z.

Areas of training from southwest to northeast or west to east are
likely to occur at times from MO into IL. The environment will be
supportive of hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, although locally
higher values may occur with any longer duration training. These
higher rates may result in localized flash flooding from
southwestern MO and adjoining portions of KS, OK and AR into MO
and southern IL.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4ZVzCUds5ko8Eo4aGcT3vu851sbImoJJlcvfocXK64mW0rfuaZ963W7lp6Ims4eaqTp0osErV-avKTj98PJhdxUYBGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448902 39318821 38828794 38188845 37828921
37379058 36619220 35889455 36649513 37249482
38229350 38929228 39329009

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 00:05:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 210005
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-210600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1344
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...central to northern TX into southeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210003Z - 210600Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will maintain a localized
flash flood threat across central to northern TX into southeastern
OK for another 3-6 hours, Efficient rainfall production will
result in isolated hourly rainfall of 2-4 inches and storm totals
of 3 to 5+ inches.

DISCUSSION...2340Z satellite/radar imagery showed a broken axis of thunderstorms extending from the TX Hill Country into northern TX
and far southeastern OK. Loops of infrared satellite imagery
showed cloud tops were warming to the south of the DFW Metroplex,
but areas of cooling continued over the Edwards Plateau and near
the Red River. These storms were forming within an axis of higher
PWs (1.8 to 2.1 inches) and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg via 23Z SPC
mesoanalysis data, located ahead of ah mid to upper-level trough
advancing east across the southern High Plains. Right-entrance
region upper level jet divergence and diffluent flow aloft were
aiding large scale lift over TX. Slow storm motions and efficient
rainfall production have produced hourly rainfall as high as 3-4
inches and 15-minute rainfall over 1 inch near Denison, just south
of the Red River ending ~2330Z.

Expectations are for somewhat chaotic storm motions to continue
with storm generated outflows igniting new development over the
next few hours. Some westward development may also occur in the
next few hours. The favorable environment will maintain the
potential for very high rates in excess of 3 inches in an hour at
times along with 15-minute rainfall over 1 inch. Overlap of these
higher rates with urban areas or sensitive terrain in the Hill
Country may result in localized areas of flash flooding. Storms
should gradually wind down through 06Z, related to increasing
convective inhibition and eastward advancement of the upper trough
into central and eastern TX later in the night.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4_-ZwCYVwpc-WYZFPHGf-pa1LfhFFJa_u0yOkZKLmPDlvT4K-fKIuQkbym_7ElrnmPGRU0jmHqTxWXhooN9p6yppwIo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34279615 34159550 33409554 31269705 29819808
29279920 29560037 30020069 30430074 30880070
31340059 31940031 32230002 32639948 32959880
33279816 33609750 34219674

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 02:15:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 210214
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-210800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1345
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1013 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210213Z - 210800Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage across eastern CO into
western KS may result in a couple of areas of flash flooding over
the next 4-6 hours. Areas of short term training are expected to
result in hourly rainfall totals of 1-2 inches.

DISCUSSION...Through 02Z, infrared satellite and area radar
imagery showed the early stages of increasing
showers/thunderstorms over portions of eastern CO, located within
a low level easterly wind regime, to the south of a closed
mid-level low over the WY/SD/NE border. A reinforcing surface
boundary (effective cold front) had been analyzed via KPUX radar
imagery and surface observations to be slowly sinking south from
near PUB to LAA, with a notable surge in low level ENE winds noted
on the KPUX VAD wind display, along with increasing surface
dewpoints across the Front Range. The increase in low level
moisture has resulted in a 3-hour increase in MLCAPE of 200 to
600+ J/kg, centered about 30-40 miles east of Pueblo according to
the 02Z SPC mesoanalysis. 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data also showed
MLCAPE values of 500 to 1500+ J/kg over eastern CO (highest over
southeastern CO).

Subtle mid-level height falls, easterly upslope flow and
sufficient instability/shear profiles are expected to allow for
thunderstorms to increase over eastern CO over the next 1-3 hours
with movement of cells off toward the east and southeast. While
the details vary from run to run, this setup has been consistently
advertised by recent HRRR/RRFS cycles going back several hours.
The potential for enhanced rainfall efficiency with mesocyclones
and multiple cells/mergers/brief training should allow for hourly
rainfall to reach 1 to 2 inches. Storm total rainfall of 1 to 2
inches (isolated amounts up to 3 inches) through 08Z may result in
a couple of areas of flash flooding, although the coverage of any
flash flooding is expected to remain fairly localized.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9L79V--q7miYFHznoeAO7gkmxLxTG-jfT3_WCMp3to_CSaXlIqXVYqHwegSaEo563Dh9aozVRg4lJ-AUBoSFR8MQtGU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39940455 39880375 39470172 38610080 37970084
37600107 37310159 37200248 37320322 37500390
37860451 38680505 39630504

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 03:17:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 210310
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-210900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1346
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1108 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...Southern OH...Western and Central WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 210308Z - 210900Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms expanding in coverage
across portions of southern OH will continue overnight and
gradually move into portions of western and central WV. Given very moist/saturated soil conditions and high streamflows, the
additional rainfall tonight is expected to produce areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery shows an ejecting
shortwave impulse moving across western and central OH which is
interacting with a surface front and is fostering a wave of low
pressure along it. This has supported the recent expansion of
shower and thunderstorm activity across southern OH. Cloud top
temperatures continue to cool, and radar imagery is showing
convection beginning to initiate even farther off to the east
across portions of far western WV.

The airmass is moderately unstable across far southern OH through
much of central WV, with MUCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg pooled across
this region. This instability axis is situated in close proximity
to the front and also downwind of the aforementioned surface low.

The ejecting shortwave energy and modest warm air advection ahead
of the surface low will couple with frontal convergence and areas
of orographic ascent near some of higher terrain in WV to promote
a general expansion of convection over the next few hours, with
activity continuing in the near-term across southern OH, but
tending to become a bit more concentrated farther east into
western and central WV.

These areas are very sensitive right now given recent heavy
rainfall, and the soils across the region are very moist and
locally saturated. Heavy rainfall from 12 to 24 hours ago has also
resulted in high streamflows based on the latest USGS data.

The latest 00Z HREF/REFS guidance suggests some of the stronger
storms will be capable of producing 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall
rates. Some localized cell-training will be possible, and some of
the guidance suggests additional rainfall totals tonight of 2 to
3+ inches. These rains combined with the aforementioned
sensitivities on the ground are expected to result in areas of
flash flooding overnight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!76GShQY3OpzSoRmqpH9XaOmSPhZR8PeRksksToA9OAkUJGemv4-68bC9QtRcAtnkXBdR9lAbKyFBfY_SZ1WDm9-pj3M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40348261 40098129 39738040 39177971 38357985
38018069 38208192 38678286 38998355 39608426
40168419 40308381

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 08:33:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 210833
FFGMPD
PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-211430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1347
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Areas affected...Southern OH...Western and Central WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210830Z - 211430Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible
through mid-morning from scattered areas of showers and
thunderstorms continuing to advance across the Upper OH Valley
where very sensitive soil and streamflow conditions exist.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery shows multiple
shortwave impulses traversing the OH Valley, with a lead impulse
now crossing through central WV, and another one upstream across
southern IL. Both of these impulses are associated with at least
semi-organized clusters of convection.

The lead energy will be crossing through the central Appalachians
over the next couple of hours, but will begin to outrun the
corridor of stronger instability support which is gradually
getting suppressed more regionally as a frontal zone gradually
settles southward. This should allow for the current shower and
thunderstorm activity over western and central WV to weaken with
time.

However, the upstream energy over southern IL and corresponding
axis of convection which is already advancing across central and
southern IN, will be moving east across the Upper OH Valley this
morning. This may support enough downstream warm air advection and
elevated instability transport that allows for some of this
convection to reload back across parts of southern OH where there
has already been rather widespread flash flooding overnight.

MUCAPE values at least in close proximity to the aforementioned
frontal zone remain as high as 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and the PW
environment remains rather high with values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches
in place. This will continue to support rather efficient
convection with locally high rainfall rates potentially as high as
1.5 inches/hour.

The latest hires CAMs suggest a general disorganization to the
convective footprint with time this morning, with the activity
becoming more scattered in nature and locally weakening too with
the instability becoming more modest. However, there is enough of
a lingering convective threat such that additional areas of flash
flooding will be possible through at least mid-morning across
southern OH and into western and central WV. Some additional 1 to
2 inch rainfall amounts will be possible.

Very sensitive soil and streamflow conditions exist from the
multi-day rounds of heavy rainfall, and the threat for flash
flooding will persist with any additional heavy rainfall this
morning.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4gWm_LD84xjnzuVDw3ybgGUf09jZXYx8trMQQ2cNl6EOn5YqYip9B0KiJ-YzQQE9M-sYEq_1-I-1sdRvHNq-BtaUVrc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40188356 39988143 39748034 39367957 38677950
38148006 38138132 38658294 38778376 39228482
39898471

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 18:20:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211820
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-220000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1348
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Areas affected...Central & Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211818Z - 220000Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will expand across
the region this afternoon creating hourly rainfall as much as 2
inches. These storms will be slow moving, which across vulnerable
terrain or locally more saturated soils could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...The experimental GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB indicates
rapid uptick and expansion of glaciating clouds stretching from
central Alabama through southeast West Virginia. This is
reflective of deepening convection noted as well via the regional
radar mosaic, which has produced recent MRMS measured hourly
rainfall above 1 inch in scattered locations.

The environment is extremely favorable for these heavy rainfall
rates. PWs measured by GPS are generally 1.4 to 1.7 inches, well
above the 90th percentile and approaching daily records, with this
moisture embedded within a plume of MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg.
The SPC mesoanalysis suggests normalized CAPE is generally around
0.1 to 0.15, indicative of "tall-skinny" CAPE profiles also
modeled by recent HRRR soundings, which are additionally favorable
for warm rain processes and heavy rainfall rates. At the same
time, a cold front is sagging southward across the area while a
shortwave approaches from western Kentucky. This ascent is being
enhanced as well by low-level moisture convergence, leading to the
rapid growth of heavy-rain producing convection this aftn.

The high-res CAMs are in good agreement that convection will
continue to expand through the aftn, with even more rapid growth
possible into the evening as the shortwave reinforces the
convergent ascent. This will yield widespread thunderstorms across
the southern and central Appalachians, where 1-2"/hr rainfall
could (20-40% chance from the HREF) cause more than 3 inches of
rain, with isolated higher totals possible. This will be due to
very slow moving storms (0-6km mean winds just around 5 kts) and
minimal shear leading to boundary collisions and storm mergers
which could cause multiple rounds of heavy rain in many areas.

FFG across the region varies considerably due to scattered recent
rainfall, and is as low as 1.5"/3hrs across WV/Southwest VA to as
high as 3"/3hrs into GA. This suggests that the greatest risk for
flash flooding will be across the Central Appalachians, but
anywhere these slow moving storms occur across vulnerable
terrain/soils could result in flash flood impacts through this
evening.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4KLLzGfFRC6yel56d8BzI1FGQR5-mQX2QUB-fjgXkFg-kcfpoTlNnx_LZGScZO2utXw-tcpozXytRRBwaUqNYGs6yqo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...OHX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38687974 38117932 37377908 36247959 35268107
34658299 34498452 34758542 35248571 36038530
36878404 37478277 37998170 38348112 38668035

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 20:18:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212017
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-220215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1349
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Areas affected...High Plains of New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212015Z - 220215Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop through the afternoon and early evening hours before
waning after sunset. Localized amounts of 2-3" possible allowing
for isolated flash flood concerns across the Caprock of New Mexico
and West Texas.

Discussion...Current radar and satellite composite indicate a
budding convective field across the Caprock over into the Upper
Trans Pecos this afternoon as cells develop within a primed
environment with SBCAPE between 1000-2500 J/kg and aid from a
slow-moving quasi-stationary front bisecting the region. PWATs
between 1.2-1.5" settled over the area are running between the
75th and 90th percentile of climatology leading to modestly
efficient rainfall prospects as heavy rainfall with rates of
1-2"/hr are anticipated within the strongest area of convection.
Recent trends of the HRRR indicate the current convective
initiation to expand south-southeast within the more robust
theta_E presence centered over the Caprock down into the northern
Permian Basin. This correlates well with the initial 12z HREF
probs of >2" positioned right within that general zone with
perhaps a bit more of a signal further east along the stationary
front as storms might focus within the theta_E gradient aligned
with the front itself.

Main concern with this setup is the relatively slow cell motions
off initiation with the propagation vectors indicating a mean flow
around 5-10kts from northwest to southeast as the area still sits
within the northeast flank of a ridge positioned across West Texas
into neighboring Chihuahua. Local maxima will likely settle
between 2-3", perhaps as high as 4" in any strong cells that drift
slowly within proximity of the front or within that area
positioned southwest of KLBB. Isolated to widely scattered flash
flooding is forecast over this general area over the next 4-6
hours before cells dissipate with the loss of the diurnal heat
flux around sunset.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6edeqOZWIzzjALY0wPUvKPRsk3_4CZxT7TI-_JteCVfOAyjCc26bilwC38rgt7Nlx44zsriPGUXP7hxVWlYy5d2x2LU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34740248 34450212 34190183 33980159 33750146
33500123 33120100 32750083 32370079 31950078
31580110 31420235 31500291 31710343 32110359
32890364 33540368 34090359 34400346 34720321

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 22:39:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212238
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-220435-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1350
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
637 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Areas affected...Portions of California and Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212235Z - 220435Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns across
the Sierra Nevada and adjacent valleys into southern Nevada due to
a slow-moving upper level low. Rainfall rates between
0.25-0.75"/hr expected over sensitive terrain and flashier
deserts.

Discussion...A slow-moving upper level low continues to churn over
central California this afternoon with a blossoming convective
field along the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, as well as cross
southern Nevada. The areas impacted are positioned well within the
focused diffluent axis under the low center and just east of the
primary upper circulation allowing for ample ascent to occur over
the region. MUCAPE between 250-500 J/kg is positioned across the
valley areas of CA with some 500-1250 J/kg markers noted over the
southern CA deserts into southern NV to the west of Las Vegas.
This instability presence coupled with the upper low dynamics will
aid in continued convective development with increasing coverage
over the deserts of NV by 00z as a stronger mid-level vorticity
maxima is progged to pivot around the low center and add a broad
ascent element to the evolution. PWATs remain elevated across
southern NV with the PWAT anomaly closer to normal around the
Sierra's limiting the threat a bit under the low center and
increasing the threat a but into the evening over Nevada. Slow
cell motions under the low will be the driving force behind any
flash flood threat over the valley in CA into the Sierra's with
some FFG exceedance already noted via the latest obs from the
MRMS. The threat remains on the isolated to widely scattered side
with the best chance late-afternoon and evening over Lincoln
county in NV where terrain influence and mean flow prompting some
training potential in this area. Overall, threat remains
coincident with a MRGL risk of excessive rainfall currently in
place over the region and will remain the case the next several
hours.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6_DOc1hIaf1k5P4_ahvT1pJ0AsX9owwWhXdgx62wWGof-VEVehuTxZAzwHU-5adNh3GsGXYwzfQ-kCZdoc6wxHR3uQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LKN...REV...STO...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39251572 39241519 38891469 38301449 37611445
37091449 36481460 36041493 35791533 35591601
35711704 35771750 35891797 36081839 36251877
37331949 37942000 38622007 38741860 38861778
39001726 39151651

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 22 00:02:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 220001
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-220600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1351
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Areas affected...Central Appalachians of West Virginia, Southwest
Virginia, and Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220000Z - 220600Z

Summary...Continued threat of flash flooding across the Central
Appalachians with the greatest threat over West Virginia down into
eastern Tennessee. Rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr plausible with
very low FFG's within the terrain leading to scattered chances for
flash flooding.

Discussion...The combination of elevated moisture and sufficient
buoyancy lingering over the Mid Atlantic Piedmont back into the
Central Appalachian front will lead to a continued risk of flash
flooding through the first half of the evening. Shortwave
disturbance currently analyzed over western KY will move eastward
with a forecast to become weaker and sheared out within the next
6-8 hours which will limit the threat heading into the morning.
Prior to the weakening phase, scattered thunderstorms will
continue to progress eastward across WV down through southwestern
VA into eastern KY/TN as ascent remains fixed within the narrow
diffluent axis downstream of our shortwave trough. MUCAPE between
1000-2000 J/kg will be more than favorable for a continued
convective environment with suitable deep layer moisture to allow
for rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr in the strongest cell cores.
This has been the theme through the day and will continue for at
least another 6 hours before we finally see the ascent pattern
peter out and we return to more stability to cap the threat
heading into the early morning hours Tuesday.

Latest RRFS/HRRR iterations indicate the greatest threat will
likely occur over central and southern West Virginia where a
narrow lobe of mid-level vorticity will pass through the area the
next few hours with a line of convection capable for scattered
flash flood prospects into the first part of the evening. Another
area of interest will reside in eastern KY/TN where trends for a
multi-cell cluster have shown up within each CAM respectively with
a position over northeastern TN. There's a more consensus further
north into WV at this time, but the environment is conducive for
this area to see some heavy rain prospects if cells do mature in
this region, so it will be something to monitor as local FFG's up
and down the Central Appalachian front remain low due to several
days of rainfall prior.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9FvE6aWTPIV0IoPeb9o8wd-ggrC7GKqR80YDqsy5ZuQ8GtiIVUz7_k_0ZBgi9JSHG9_iUlkrB5xNyM4RojDchpxc-p4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39198077 39128013 38857950 38407968 37967996
37138062 36498084 35278095 35378273 35268410
35308498 36018536 36638499 37228437 37808357
38188300 38748210 39048130

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 22 05:54:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 220554
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-221030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1352
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the TN Valley and Central/Southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220552Z - 221030Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates will continue to pose a concern for some areas of
flash flooding going through dawn.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows a broken
axis of relatively slow-moving showers and thunderstorms across
northeast TN, far southeast KY, southwest VA and western NC. Some
activity in a more scattered nature is also seen across parts of
southern and eastern WV.

This convection has been persisting over the last several hours in
response to a couple of weak waves of low pressure riding
northeastward up along a frontal zone while interacting with a
moist and somewhat unstable airmass. MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000+
J/kg are still noted across eastern TN, southeast KY and southwest
VA, with lesser values farther north into WV, but the airmass is
quite moist with PWs locally approaching 1.75 inches.

Supporting the ongoing areas of showers and thunderstorms is also
the presence of locally strong moisture convergence near the front
along with presence of right-entrance region upper-level jet
dynamics. This has been driving some deeper layer ascent over the
region, and this will tend to maintain the threat for areas of
convection overnight despite the relatively modest degree of
instability.

Some of the colder convective tops right now are down across
southwest VA, and the latest MRMS data shows rainfall rates with
some of these stronger thunderstorms as high as 1 to 2
inches/hour. The latest model guidance more regionally shows a
general weakening of the activity overnight. However, given the
nearby front, upper-level jet forcing, and proximity of
orographics/upslope flow near the higher terrain, some additional
persistence of convection may occur going through dawn. Some
additional spotty 2 to 3+ inch rainfall amounts will be possible
given the slow cell-motions of the stronger storms.

The locally rugged terrain and relatively low FFGs across the
region in conjunction with the additional rainfall may support
some additional areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ZlVXpOW0XiKnH3KAg8FX9rVvUvcQJPTe3kHBUwZQGaar6Hhzti84olXkAsUU6mzDHWbf15i6RlPVLHRcZm85rcJNl4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...OHX...PBZ...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39047992 39017911 38577921 37737976 36338014
35478108 35128180 34958266 35048315 35458377
35538472 35748507 36218492 36728424 37338292
37838162 38458089

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 22 09:52:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 220951
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-221530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1353
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern Appalachians...TN Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220950Z - 221530Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall rates may pose an isolated threat for flash flooding this
morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows
scattered areas of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms still
impacting portions of the TN Valley and the central to southern
Appalachians, with some recent convective development noted as far
south as northern GA.

This convection continues to be supported by some surface low
activity riding along a wave frontal zone that is now generally
draped across eastern TN through western NC. However, there is a
well-defined inverted trough that extends north up across
southwest VA and into central and southern WV which is also a
facilitator for some of the activity.

The airmass remains moist and modestly unstable with PWs upwards
of 1.5+ inches, and MUCAPE values as high as 500 to 1000 J/kg. The
greatest instability is focused down across eastern TN, northern
GA, and southwest NC which is where generally the strongest
convection and cold cloud tops are focused.

Supporting the ongoing areas of showers and thunderstorms
continues to be the larger scale presence of right-entrance region
upper-level jet dynamics. This coupled with orographics and the
proximity of the front should tend to favor areas of showers and
thunderstorms persisting into the morning hours.

The latest hires model guidance suggests convection may become a
bit more expansive across areas of northern GA over the next few
hours, but overall, there should be at least a scattered threat
for showers and thunderstorms well to the north across the
southern and central Appalachians and adjacent areas of the Blue
Ridge and Piedmont east of the terrain. Portions of the TN Valley
and Cumberland Plateau region across eastern TN will also still
have potential for locally slow-moving convection.

Rainfall rates will be continue to be capable of reaching 1 to 2
inches/hour, and the relatively slow cell-motions near areas of
higher terrain may allow for some additional 2 to 3+ inch rainfall
amounts this morning. This may allow for some isolated areas of
flash flooding, and especially near areas of rugged terrain. It
should be noted that areas farther north across southwest VA and
especially through central WV have low FFGs, so this area has a
notably sensitive antecedent environment for runoff concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5bgkggYpOTFPNDZMskWPG2l98Md5vh5H_7KrjIdDq8hSKplYEa9kSHTSs5TcGPeWgx4HgyipRH2NFsZtPbaYJjCROAs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...OHX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448017 39187943 38507941 37347986 35578099
34618233 33928385 33958492 34598542 35678503
36978331 38058233 39078105

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 22 14:54:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221452
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1354
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1051 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221450Z - 222030Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/stationary low-topped tropical showers
capable of 2"/hr, pose localized 2-4" totals in proximity to some
urban/prone locations for rapid inundation flooding

DISCUSSION...A shallow cold air-damming environment exists across
the Mid-Atlantic with core of northerly reinforced flow across the
central Piedmont of VA/NC; though a weak area of enhanced easterly
flow coming off the central Atlantic across to the southern
Chesapeake Bay into the Eastern VA necks and Hampton Roads
vicinity. GOES-E visible imagery and KAKQ RADAR shows a lone
shallow-topped shower across Middlesex county that has been very
slow moving; however, there are some signals that a few other TCu
are forming further south near Williamsburg. Visible imagery
also denotes thicker low-level stratiform along and north of this
area through the southern Delmarva, but starting to clear below a
thinning layer of cirrus across far SE VA, near this weak surface
wave (easterly flow) area. As such, some Temp/dewpoint
depressions are starting to occur with temps even reaching tte
middle-70s unlike further west where socked into the low 60s;
further building the instability and FGEN gradient along the
convergence zone.

CIRA LVT also notes the stronger moisture flux in the SFC/850mb
layer to the north (over 100 kg/m/s) concurrent to 850-700 and
700-500mb flux from the opposite direction overlapping providing
deep layer moisture (up to 2" TPW) while providing some effective
bulk shear toward 30kts. As such, weak updraft rotation may
result in higher moisture flux is supporting enhanced convergence
to tap the weak but deep moisture profile for 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE (perhaps increasing with a bit more insolation). As such,
the shallow cells are likely to be highly efficient with 2"+/hr
rates. While small, the weak rotation will also support very slow
motions for localized 2-4" totals to accumulate in 2-3 hours in a
highly focused location.

Currently, on the middle neck of E VA, observations of 2"+ help to
confirm the efficiency of the environment, however, the
uncertainty remains in the overall coverage to develop over the
coming hours. New 12z Hi-Res CAMs, along with rapid refresh
solutions from the HRRR, show an evolution of increased
development along the the highest surface to boundary layer
convergence axis across the necks into far SE VA and nearer the
larger population areas of Hampton Roads into Norfolk, a
north-south axis of 2-4", with isolated higher amounts through 21z
are concerning with placement for possible localized rapid
inundation flooding and with some of the more aggressive solutions
over 5".

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4dL_R0oqOgSoYPT7kum_wzvWkWJID1eQyzF8iN1eErjYLnXFjkV5hwCQiI_XFoDa-eA6E4XDB3NYwhP91zgBUuiZCwY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37987663 37787625 37177621 36957608 36607624
36447657 36487729 36757760 37397747 37837716

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 22 19:38:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221937
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-230036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1355
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Areas affected...Central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221936Z - 230036Z

Summary...The threat of potentially significant flash flooding
will increase this afternoon as storms with 1-2"/hr rainfall rates
expand in coverage.

Discussion...Trends in Day Cloud Phase and LightningCast imagery
show rapidly increasing showers and thunderstorms along and west
of the Sacramento Mountains in Central New Mexico. This uptick in
activity is partially tied to strengthening large scale ascent
between a vort max lifting northward from Chihuahua, and the right
entrance of a jet-streak analyzed over the Four Corners.

While so far storms have mainly focused along the terrain and
beneath breaks in the cloud canopy, coverage will expand over the
next few hours as deep-layer southerly flow and low-level upslope
flow remove lingering CIN and continue to moisten the column. 18Z
soundings from EPZ and and ABQ soundings already depict a very
favorable profile for efficient rainfall rates this afternoon,
characterized by "tall-skinny" CAPE profiles, 1000-1300 J/kg of
MUCAPE, PW values well above the 90th percentile. In fact, by 00Z
tonight the RAP suggests near daily-record PWs are possible in the
highlighted region.

As such, both the HREF and RRFS suites are in good agreement for
training thunderstorms containing 1-2"/hr rainfall rates to
continue growing in coverage over the next few hours, leading to
2-4" of rainfall generally along the I-25 corridor through 00Z.
Owing to the combination of complex terrain, burn scars, and urban
areas, numerous instances of flash flooding (some of which could
be significant) are expected this afternoon.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-5FbCbNNonzLHIwcPlhofvpxHHA4uxcGuR_ZYH6BLbEy2nwMn-Cf6jwgqGi3o7kXJxLdgIaAqvckh5usLBJR-efGc-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36390508 35520502 34530528 33560543 32680568
31920665 32090757 32920799 33680796 34730759
35340719 36190626

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 22 20:49:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 222049
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-230247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1356
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Areas affected...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222047Z - 230247Z

Summary...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with 1-2"/hr
rainfall rates to support scattered flash flooding this afternoon
as they overlap with sensitive antecedent conditions.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic depicts showers and thunderstorms
developing along an inverted trough axis analyzed in the Central
Appalachians. Within this area, one cluster of thunderstorms
approaching the West Virginia Panhandle containing 1"/hr rainfall
rates led to a quick uptick in QPE-FFG exceedance and a flash
flood warning in the last 30 minutes. This highlights the
sensitivity of the region from recent heavy rainfall, with 1 HR
FFGs in the 1.5"-0.25"/hr range as of 18z.

Additional activity is expected to focus along this inverted
trough axis as it aligns with the 850-300 mb steering flow
(estimated around 15-20 kts) and an axis of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE
inching northward into the area. While instability is on the low
side, very moist vertical profiles and upslope flow into the
terrain should yield low-topped but very efficient training
convection capable of 1-2"/hr rainfall rates in the most intense
cells -- especially towards the southern end of the area near the
instability gradient. This scenario is highlighted by the HREF and
RRFS suite and corroborated by recent runs of the HRRR, which
suggest rainfall amounts of 1-3" could materialize in the main
axes of training and repeating. Given the low FFGs in the area,
additional scattered flash flooding is possible this afternoon.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6hAR4V_4bMOn1vYItBWN74wLVv_4amUYp6iPgkdNTnKNw1FVYIiN_KUyDj4MGzX5bQKx6JVVdYneM4rYVvIGNzsL65c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39128023 38787974 38087990 37108055 35958103
35618165 35898217 36418220 37488186 38568122
38978082

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 22 23:04:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 222304
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-230337-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1357
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
704 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Areas affected...Lower Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222303Z - 230337Z

Summary...Scattered flash flooding potential will shift
southwestward with time as additional cells develop across the
Lower Mid-Atlantic and net storm motions decrease with time.

Discussion...Radar across the Lower Mid-Atlantic highlights an
expanding area of showers and thunderstorms focusing near a
quasi-stationary front analyzed from the Virginia Tidewater to the
Midlands of South Carolina. Strong convergence along the boundary
combined with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 1.9-2" PWs continues to
drive efficient low-topped convection with rainfall rates upwards
of 2-3"/hr at times. While FFGs are relatively high and antecedent
conditions are dry, these intense rates have led to a few
instances of flash flooding along the tail end of the front this
afternoon.

Through the evening hours, the focus for this activity is expected
shift towards the Sandhills of North Carolina and South Carolina
Midlands as the front sags southward with time. Here, low-level
inflow is forecast to increase over the next few hours, resulting
in Corfidi Vectors which gradually veer and align more favorably
with the frontal boundary. The reduced forward motion and
potential for cell training of 2-3"/hour rates corroborate earlier
HREF and RRFS output, which highlights heightened probabilities
(30-60%) for 3-5" of rain through 03Z. While antecedent conditions
are dry, this will support a threat of scattered flash flooding
through the evening.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ZOuGGFFPdnoCtR4J0NJotSsWPL9TUxwi9gGYNFUDoWBvSFVpZphSBdXBo-Rm7gmFkItuikU877oM96H7b90QMNDFMI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35827758 35447734 34837776 34197894 33807999
33848119 34358216 35478157 35267989 35787827

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 00:53:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230053
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-230652-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1358
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
852 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Areas affected...Central New Mexico...extreme West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230052Z - 230652Z

Summary...Impactful flash flooding remains possible tonight as
additional showers and thunderstorms stream over very sensitive
ground.

Discussion...A very active day for heavy rainfall continues as
widespread showers and thunderstorms within a rich subtropical
moisture plume stream northward into New Mexico and West Texas
ahead of a positively tilted upper-trough. Over the past six
hours, numerous instances of flash flooding were reported from
this activity, generally along the Sacramento and Sangre De Cristo
Mountains. This includes one Flash Flood Emergency issued for
Mora, New Mexico where 5.3" of rain was recorded.

Recent trends in IR imagery show the most intense convection is
now focused east of the terrain where 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is
pooled along an east-west gradient per mesoanalysis. Convection
with rainfall rates exceeding 1"/hr are tonight expected to focus
along this gradient in the presence of right entrance region
ascent from the north, mid-level moistening, and persistent
upslope flow. As these storms train and repeat, high resolution
guidance is in fairly good agreement for localized rainfall
amounts upwards of 2-4" through 06Z. In light of the ongoing
impacts from heavy rainfall earlier today, potentially impactful
flash flooding is considered likely going into the overnight
hours.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4EuM0RcQoyNhIuIgJofbjBGxX--RTGi22bBcmIPfuiv6StZioFwpWOwLCIxE89BZWkpFr9MBdN0LacJumtWN5bPBaUQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36090471 35820390 34790360 33510406 32740464
32270564 31580651 31350732 31600787 32400787
32770756 33420685 34530628 35760558

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 05:12:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230512
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-231030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1360
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Western NC...Upstate SC...Northeast GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230510Z - 231030Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and relatively shallow convection with high
rainfall rates may cause some concerns for localized flash
flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows areas of
slow-moving, but very efficient shower and thunderstorm activity
across western NC impacting areas near the Blue Ridge and adjacent
Piedmont. The convection is focusing in close proximity to an
inverted surface trough over the region that extends north from a
frontal zone situated farther south across northern GA through SC.

Very moist low-level easterly flow going into the eastern slopes
of the higher terrain coupled with an axis of rather strong 925 mb frontogenesis and convergence is playing a role in driving these
very efficient areas of convection with a lot of warm rain
processes favoring high rainfall rates. Some instability is
present as well with as much as 500 to 750 J/kg of MUCAPE, and
this this helping to support some pockets of deeper convection
with some locally stronger thunderstorm activity.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected in the near-term
with the activity, and locally some additional 2 to 4+ inch
rainfall amounts will be possible over the next few hours given
slow cell-motions.

While western NC should see the main threat over the next few
hours, some of the guidance suggests that the convective activity
may develop southwestward toward dawn and get into some portions
of Upstate SC and northeast GA, so these areas may potentially
also see some pockets of heavy rainfall materialize over the next
several hours. A localized threat for flash flooding can be
expected overnight through at least the predawn hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5zrkYyDp8_o3bck5FMCnV10TGbSDBvVkZjKoj53gtWLtBEd7kyarcPOlqWnZTd_Kxyhdt_4Tel-tpVCSqRnDYp9Pcv0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36338112 36198069 35768055 35008128 34418243
34108349 34268444 34738453 35628305 35888260
36298182

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 05:47:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230441
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-230930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1359
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230440Z - 230930Z

SUMMARY...Highly efficient bands of showers with high rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected to continue over the next
few hours. Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows some banded, but very
efficient shallow convection with high rainfall rates impacting
areas of central VA. The axis of heaviest rainfall is focused from
near the Northern Neck of VA southwestward down to the Farmville
vicinity west of Richmond.

Rainfall rates within this corridor of shallow convection are
quite high and reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour. In fact, Farmville
airport last hour picked up 1.46 inches of rain. Notable warm rain
processes are ongoing, and much of the driver of these bands of
showers appear connected to an axis of stronger low-level moisture
convergence and corresponding axis of frontogenetical forcing.

Much of this forcing appears to be in the 850/750 mb layer and
thus the corresponding lift/ascent in this part of the column is
in an area where WBZ levels are well above freezing which is
driving the warm rain process. The 00Z NAM actually shows this
depiction rather well, and suggests some deepening of the
favorable frontogenetical layer over the next few hours, and
perhaps extending up to around 650 mb.

This suggests a general likelihood for these efficient bands of
heavy showers to persist in the near-term. Additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible given the slow-movement
and localized training nature of the activity. As a result, some
additional areas of flash flooding will certainly be possible over
the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_JW7MtoN7eP1opXw3bNp0WH1c4AasRRWeYO3CXdF9VBrM67wl29cp7bTCR95oYZTGYhRC7irAjTqJa-1Hd-B0XCDl_0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38347744 38347684 38117644 37787640 37427680
37207739 36937840 36977903 37267937 37547928
37867890 38207811

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 06:11:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230611
FFGMPD
FLZ000-231210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1361
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230610Z - 231210Z

SUMMARY...A few bands of showers and thunderstorms may impact
portions of southeast FL through early this morning. Locally very
high rainfall rates will be possible and this may cause some
localized urban flash flooding along the I-95 corridor from West
Palm Beach on down through Miami.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows a band of deep convection with very high rainfall
rates situated near and just offshore of southeast FL. The
convection is generally lifting northward in advance of a
mid-level shortwave impulse over the FL Straits, but is also
focusing in close proximity of an inverted surface trough along
the immediate coast.

An axis of moisture convergence near this trough axis coinciding
with MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg should tend to yield some
sustainability to the convection, and this activity may begin to
advance inland and impact some of the more densely populated urban
corridors along I-95 from near West Palm Beach on down through
Miami over the next few hours.

The mid-level shortwave energy over the FL Straits may potentially
support some new convective banding potential through early this
morning as it lifts northeastward and interacts with the inverted
trough near the coast. Therefore, some additional areas of heavy
rainfall may materialize going through dawn that could impact the
southeast FL I-95 corridor.

The PWs are extremely high, with values around 2.5 inches which
was evidenced by the 00Z RAOB from KMFL. An extremely moist
vertical column coupled with moderate instability will favor
rainfall rates well into the 2 to 3+ inch/hour range with the
stronger storms. And some of the earlier hires models this evening
suggested some localized potential for 3 to 5 inch totals where
any banding set up.

Therefore, a concern overnight and through dawn will exist for at
least localized urban flash flooding issues.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79eIMSEaYythRyspSwk4518s0QBjb77ZqMTI0SCVTAo_aARTDxkOVGlH-LhNPxqbl98lzsNEZNGy85tBOQIL4doRlBo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26948010 26867995 26477994 26088001 25678010
25388024 25338042 25418054 25678054 25988047
26328038 26648033 26868025

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 07:07:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230707
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-231305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1362
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern NM...Far Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230705Z - 231305Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall from locally repeating rounds of heavy
showers and thunderstorms will drive an increasing threat of
additional flash flooding over the next several hours. Arroyo and
slow/box canyon locations along with sensitive burn scar areas
will be most at risk for seeing flash flooding impacts, some of
which may be significant and life-threatening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W GeoColor/WV satellite imagery along
with OSPO ALPW data confirms a deep tropical moisture axis lifting
north out of northern Mexico and across sizable areas of the
Southwest with an emphasis on central and southern NM. The
moisture plume is being driven by rather strong deep layer
southerly flow in between an upper level-trough over the Desert
Southwest down through Baja California and the subtropical ridge
farther east across the southern Plains.

Embedded shortwave impulses coupled with larger scale upper-jet
divergence is working in tandem with warm air advection/isentropic
ascent and modest instability (MUCAPE values as high as 500 to
1000 J/kg) to promote regional areas of moderate to heavy rainfall
along with embedded stronger convective elements.

PWs across the region with the long-track deep layer tropical
moisture transport coming from the eastern tropical Pacific and western/northern Mexico are very anomalous with values well into
the 2 to 3 standard deviation above normal range. OSPO ALPW data
confirms a connection even to Hurricane Polo south of Mexico in
the 700/500 mb and especially 500/300 mb layer.

Over the next few hours, some strengthening of the upper-level jet
dynamics over central and southern NM should favor a corresponding
increase in 850/700 mb moisture flux and general increase in deep
layer ascent for a more organized heavy rainfall footprint.

This moisture flux will be fueling extremely efficient rainfall
and especially where some deeper convective elements materialize
over the next several hours. The latest hires multi-model
consensus led by the 00Z HREF/REFS guidance and recent HRRR
solutions suggest an uptick in convection, with areas of locally
focused orographic enhancement.

Rainfall rates with the stronger pockets of convection may reach 1
to 2 inches/hour, and some additional rainfall totals going
through the early morning hours may reach 2 to 4+ inches. These
additional rains occurring on top of the earlier rainfall will
promote an increasing flash flood threat over the next several
hours. Significant and locally life-threatening flash flooding
impacts will be possible for arroyos, box/slot canyon locations
and burn scar areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5amJEhAvDvVlhIoLusm4QCoG2wF2EVxmvABTpHdHvAdx5a4tE_7dIwZuWgLJusJKKHn8p1shccCe7oDFnIv8u6d5QbE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36710497 36470434 35760363 34490352 33060408
31950507 31160576 30930645 30900788 31510864
32120882 32960876 34220848 35160799 35910735
36410662 36670594

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 12:56:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 231255
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-231830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1363
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Much of New Mexico...Portions of West TX
Panhandle & Portions of Northwest TX and Western OK Panhandles...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231300Z - 231830Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rain with embedded isolated weak
cores capable of .5-"/hr to maintain longer-term flooding.
Remaining instability along the eastern edges of the cyclone to
continue narrow convective cores capable of 1-1.25"/hr resulting
in spots of 2-2.5" and best chances for scattered flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows strong shortwave with classic
baroclinic leaf/comma shape across the Desert Southwest entering S
NM from Chihuahua with regional RADAR already depicting the
MCV/mid-level circulation well, currently southwest of El Paso.
The dPVA and broad right entrance to the strengthening downstream
upper-level jet provide the broad baroclinic ascent to maintain
moderately heavy shield precipitation along and downstream through
the upper Rio Grande Valley and mainly westward across western NM.
Core of deep layer moisture continues to be advected north and is
generally near the western TX Panhandle into south-central NM at
this time with expanding 1.25" TPW across much of the lower
elevations and already over 1.5" in W TX pushed by strong winds
(20-25kts at 850 from SE, 25-35kts at 700 from S). As such CIRA
LVT values are fairly impressive if not obstructed by active rainfall/attenuation, with 850-700 and 700-500mb layers both shows
broad 75-125 kg/m/s values, along and east of 106W. So while
conditionally unstable air is more limited, there remains a swath
of 250-500 J/kg of CAPE, increasing steadily south and eastward,
with max pockets of MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg in the upwind edge of
the main shortwave in W TX and another over east-central NM near
Clovis. Strong convergence and dynamic ascent should allow for
isolated to scattered embedded convective elements capable of
1"/hr within these cores. Given compromised, recently flooded
areas across S NM/W TX, this may maintain/continue flooding
concerns, though new flashy/rapid rise pluvial flooding conditions
would be less likely or very widely spread to those embedded
higher intensity cores, which will be most likely near and
southeast of the MCV.

Regional RADAR and RAP analysis denote a secondary weaker but
still effective shortwave over northeast NM, slowly shifting
north-northeast, this wave supports a warm-advective type wing to
the ascent pattern across NE NM into the NW TX Panhandles. Solid
surface to 850mb southerly flow will continue to isentropically
ascend, utilizing the enhanced area of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE to support
north-south oriented convective lines/elements that may repeat
with rates of 1-1.25"/hr. This may support an area of enhanced
totals near 2-2.5" and may allow for an incident or two of
localized flash flooding to occur.

Overall, broader areal flooding is likely to continue across the
area of concern, but the localized incidents of rapid rise/flash
flooding are going to be more isolated and considered possible
through the morning lull in instability.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!628vRCMI0nSPBy88fXGebPTmi_suyjCQD4d7A546POvI16jH0zXVuFjyw5XWaQW_EtW0iaJtF96IHZpLfy8x5eaOEFg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36920346 36750226 35470216 34740311 33970357
33180386 32200414 30310474 31060584 31640674
31750813 33610822 35060768 36300638 36740487

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 14:14:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 231413
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-232000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1364
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1013 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Cumberland Plateau and Southern Appalachians....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231415Z - 232000Z

SUMMARY...Isolated slow moving thunderstorms will increase in coverage/intensity with 1.5"/hr rates probable. Localized 2-3"
totals across rugged terrain may result in localized flash
flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denotes the area of concern resides
between an exiting shortwave over the Mid-Atlantic and a sharper,
digging one over the southern Ohio River Valley resulting in
relatively flat, weaker mid-level flow in the steering layer;
however, much of the area remains in the diffluent area of the
approaching jet for some modest upper-level divergence and
25-30kts of effective bulk shear for some weak organizational
capability. In the lower levels, a narrow finger of remaining
surface to 850mb moisture with Tds in the upper 60s resides along
the SE Cumberland Plateau and western slopes of the Appalachians,
with CIRA LPW noting .6-.75" and overall totals to 1.5". LPW also
denotes the 700-500mb drying and increasing lapse rates per RAP
will support some increasing mid-level bouyancy for some solid
updraft strength; though the key will likely be some surface
insolation and currently GOES-Visible shows a start stratus along
the ridge line in far SE KY across eastern TN toward northeast AL.
Limited capping shows even modest morning sun has brought MLCAPEs
up to 750 J/kg, though expectation toward 1000 J/kg toward early
afternoon.

Currently, the dynamics and weak insolation is resulting in
scattered, generally low-topped convection with a few stronger CBs
in Fentress to Scott county with a few more isolated cells further
east and south toward Chattanooga. Initially, the rates will be
1-1.5"/hr and within a weak flow and may allow for some residency;
however, the concern will be eroding stratus deck and increasing
instability, likely to expand overall coverage of scattered
thunderstorms also likely to expand northward into E KY in the
next few hours. Capability of 1.5"/hr rates and localized 2-3"
totals; while likely small in areal coverage, will fall over
rugged/steep sections of the Cumberland Plateau and western slopes
of the Appalachians where FFG is naturally lower (1-1.5"/hr and
1.5-2.5"/3hrs) suggesting incidents of highly focused, localized
flash flooding will become increasingly possible through the late
morning into the early afternoon period will become increasingly
possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5DixPXbgMb37awnJUKHgkFdmYjhi3yaOyRQ4BS2xo3XKIUWTT0EZIVNHtTtfhwGHrDuGkTgZp77XrmRJGxAzlyzTtVY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37818294 37648247 37298219 36598207 35738264
35098335 34688404 34508467 34488516 34608561
35088591 35588571 36228529 36648492 37488407
37778356

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 16:03:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 231602
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-232000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1365
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Southern & Southeast OH...Western half of WV...
Far Southwest PA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231600Z - 232000Z

SUMMARY...Small,relatively stationary cells capable of 1.5"/hr and
2-3" totals across rugged and saturated soils suggest scattered
but focused incidents of flash flooding are increasingly possible
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows approaching strengthening
shortwave centered near Louisville, KY starting to dominate the
older weakening upper-low center that is retrograding across NE
OH; however, a combination of the UL and ML WV channels (6.2 and
6.9um respectively) show some west to east temperature gradients
acros the Ohio River Valley indicative of a mid-level warm frontal
feature, that appears to be the focus of enhanced deep layer
convergence. As such, scattered to numerous shallow-topped warm
core thunderstorms/showers have been producing 1.5"+/hr rates.
Limited instability but sufficient 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE with a
bit of mid-level steepened lapse rates have supported these narrow
updrafts. Moisture appears a bit limit in analysis fields, but
CIRA LPW suggests some enhanced elements may be similar to further
south with 850-700 and 700-500mb noting a few enhanced pockets to
support moisture flux into the updrafts. Deep layer flow between
the stronger approaching wave and retrograding older one, supports
0-10kts of steering while still supporting modest
divergence/diffluence aloft to maintain cells for greater than one
or two up/downdraft cycles prolonging residency. As such,
localized 1.5"/hr rates for 1-2+ hours support highly localized
2-3" totals. Recent heavy rainfall swath is a bit further north
(using 99th percentile of 0-40cm saturation ratios from NASA LIS
product suite) but rugged terrain and slightly increased
urbanization in SW and FFG values of 1"/hr and 1-1.5"/3hrs suggest
focused scattered incidents of flash flooding remain possible.

While guidance has not been suggesting additional development,
there is solid insolation across SE OH, SW PA and N WV that
instability is creeping up even though dynamic forcing is not as
potent as further southwest or northwest (across N OH). Still,
similar pre-cursory agitated Cu fields and small TCu have an
appearance of some potential further north and east. Deeper layer
moisture per CIRA LVT of 50-75 kg/m/s in the low level moisture
plume from the east/southeast suggests a more widely scattered but
similar low-topped, slow moving potential for efficient rainfall
exists through early afternoon as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-PMmKKiwkFQRasNxB7tGoNRIuH2riyB168RDtFIoFKiA5yXaRHYhqRCSBS3BIBHPL67RUCGg-I9pcyg-b73tfQamZfs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40968106 40648032 40137980 39467984 38848009
38328068 37818160 37968246 38488348 39138347
40368290 40898196

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 18:30:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 231829
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-240015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1366
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 231827Z - 240015Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon
across eastern New Mexico, Far West Texas into the Texas
Panhandle. South flow will allow repeating activity with likely
scattered flash flooding. Considerable flash flooding is possible,
particularly for burn scars, urban areas and terrain.

DISCUSSION...As of 18Z...Upper level troughing persists over the
Desert Southwest and Baja with a ridge up the southern Great
Plains. Strong moisture advection sourced from the eastern Pacific
and west Gulf continues in between over northern west Texas, New
Mexico and points north. Right entrance jet dynamics are aiding
broad lift along with a differential heating boundary near the
eastern NM/TX border on the east side of a cloud shield over NM.
Moisture continues to increase with PW of 1.5" up to the Davis
Mtns in west Texas per the 18Z RAP analysis which according to RAP
forecasts will expand up through southeastern NM rest of this
afternoon. This is 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal which
along with SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg east of the Sacramento Mtns
will promote increasing heavy thunderstorm development rest of the
afternoon. An MCV is apparent in NEXRAD regional coverage over
west-central NM which may further funnel moisture north over
eastern NM. Deep layer unidirectional southerly flow should
continue to allow repeating/training activity. Rates of current
activity generally peak 1 to 1.5"/hr though 2"/hr could occur
where heavier cells repeat.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have 1.5 to 3" totals through 00Z. The
heaviest activity should generally be east of the heavy rain of
the past day, except in east-central NM where activity continues.
Scattered flash flooding is likely with a risk for localized
considerable flash flooding. This is on top of a broader areal
flooding from the broad scale rainfall over a previously dry
region. This heavy rainfall event will continue through at least
this evening, so subsequent discussions will be needed.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4BsRn36sqh1iNByNKDqqUlQyKpbeCRGaAun9pp7OHGdbyAwoASkdbxT1HyHRkJBOLeSiNsHaHy3uMY6ZS1naNfKaAgY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36540303 36300227 35230280 34450298 33210328
32010320 31120320 30510326 29290336 29350448
31440654 32090682 32940624 34460574 35730547
36400454

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 19:52:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 231952
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1367
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231950Z - 240100Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms capable of 2"/hr continue to
develop along/west of the central and southern Appalachians into
this evening. Scattered flash flooding should continue, possibly
into the overnight.

DISCUSSION...As of 1930Z...Scattered thunderstorms extend along a
surface trough from southern Ohio to northwest Georgia in a warm
sector east of an upper low over southwest Ohio. A channel of
moisture (PW around 1.5") and instability (SBCAPE of 1000-2500
J/kg) extends along the west side of the southern Appalachians up
through eastern Kentucky. Generally light deep layer flow will
maintain slow movement with hourly rates up to 2". Scattered flash
flooding is occurring along this trough. Recent IR imagery
indicates recent growth occurring along this trough.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs favor the southern portion of the
outlook area for late afternoon development, though they are
certainly underdone with the ongoing activity near the Ohio River.
The main limiting factor is moisture with 1.5" PW around 1
standard deviation above normal. However, efficient warm rain
processes and slow motion will continue to promote excessive
rainfall, particularly over sensitive terrain and urban areas.

This activity may continue into the overnight and warrant a
subsequent discussion.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6fN4k9R7kAQ60OZefmWwthxv-5beJUL02vX5UZuFVgCL631cU7ZI2H6a2oaBLuRxi_bHjrt7jDK1wfRrEMV5hBR5TPQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39658364 39548310 39038272 39148198 39108129
38788097 37418188 36028284 34918371 34068479
34148533 35238559 36928447 38208402 38968393

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 23 21:31:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 232131
FFGMPD
AZZ000-240328-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1368
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232128Z - 240328Z

Summary... Flash flooding will be possible across portions of
Arizona, particularly across the Mogollon Rim and the southern
part of the state, this afternoon into the evening.

Discussion... Bubbling cumulus over the Mogollon Rim has
translated into widely scattered thunderstorms, as well as an
observed increase in lightning and overshooting cloud tops. In
southern Arizona near the Mexican border, thunderstorms are also
beginning to form and drift northward with the prevailing
southerly flow. Hourly rainfall rates are estimated to be an
1-1.5" per MRMS analysis, which is sufficient for localized flash
flooding.

The environment supports the potential for ongoing heavy rainfall
to continue this afternoon with estimated surface CAPE of
1000-2000 J/Kg across the region. Additionally, PWATs ranged from
1.3 inches in the southern part of the state to near 1 inch
farther north near the terrain of the Mogollon Rim. Instability
and moisture will continue to be transported north across Arizona,
sustaining thunderstorm growth. An eastward moving mid-level
trough across California will also help to provide large scale
ascent for storms to develop.

The Mogollon Rim and southern Arizona will likely continue to be
the hot spots for locally heavy rain capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall according to 18z hi-res models. The HREF indicates
20-40 % probabilities of 1 hr QPF exceeding an inch per hour into
the evening and 20-40 % probabilities of exceeding 1hr and 3hr
flash flood guidance. Flash flooding is possible into this
evening, particularly across desert soils, sensitive terrain, and
urbanized areas.

Wilder

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5nhaPHreOjKz1IKpUdxF8zEq5GeVOE7IR_0aLBxJ6mpUo537B2Hc0YtSOsZmmO2QS3PDlyfpyVWdrVVpJwNvZ1H-9Mo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36181167 35070982 31370922 30941109 31281233
33611146 34041325 35241336

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 24 00:24:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 240024
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1369
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240022Z - 240500Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms develop this evening from the
Texas Panhandle north into Colorado and Kansas along a surface
trough. An increasing low level jet will promote high rates and
allow repeating activity. Expect isolated flash flooding this
evening, with scattered coverage overnight.

DISCUSSION...As of 00Z...Upper level troughing persists over the
Intermountain West with a ridge up the southern Great Plains.
Strong moisture advection sourced from the eastern Pacific and
west Gulf increases this evening as the LLJ sets up. Right
entrance jet dynamics improve tonight which will aid lift.
Moisture continues to increase with PW of 1.5 to 1.7" along the
eastern side of the Texas Panhandle. This is 2.5 to 3 standard
deviations above normal which along with SBCAPE of 1500 J/kg on
the west side of the Panhandle should continue to allow
development near the trough axis. Deep layer unidirectional
southerly flow should continue to allow repeating/training
activity. Rates of current activity generally peak around 2"/hr
though 3"/hr could occur where heavier cells repeat.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have 2 to 4" totals through 06Z along
the existing trough axis in the northwestern TX Panhandle into
southwest KS. Isolated flash flooding should occur with potential
for increasing to scattered coverage through the overnight.
Subsequent discussions with northward expansion are likely.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5aIJnWuKWyTvZzfBxzfuXaI36_r6deMKjYsoqa_zHBLXoWbNXV1a_xBmYsZ2fcR3uiaGu068IBlZjgwZGuJP4i8GKho$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37980102 37440031 35930081 34980220 35030391
36170395 37300357 37850217

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 24 00:55:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 240055
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-240545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1370
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...West of Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240049Z - 240545Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms capable of 2.5"/hr continue to
develop west of the southern Appalachians this evening before
diminishing in the overnight. Scattered flash flooding should
continue over eastern Tennessee and more localized over eastern
Kentucky and central West Virginia.

DISCUSSION...As of 0830Z...Scattered heavy thunderstorms continue
over eastern Tennessee with isolated thunderstorms and lingering
widespread showers from eastern Kentucky up through central West
Virginia along a surface trough in a warm sector east of an upper
low over southern Ohio. A channel of moisture (PW of 1.4" and 1.5"
into eastern Tennessee) and instability (MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg in
eastern TN and 500 J/kg in eastern KY into WV. Generally light
deep layer flow will maintain slow movement and allow propagation
to continue. Hourly rates up to 2.5" will continue to promote
scattered flash flooding in eastern Tennessee and rates around
1"/hr in KY and WV.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs favor an additional 1-3" over eastern TN
and up to 1.5" farther north. Efficient warm rain processes and
slow motion will continue to promote excessive rainfall,
particularly over sensitive terrain and urban areas. This area is
sensitive from prolonged repeating rains.

A general downward trend in activity should continue through the
overnight as instability is exhausted.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!89pmPCuni4PKkhNIMr9rmIX1ZcQNvzgfdP1Ik6Dh8Kwod6u-Zmd4X-6nDGoJAHwJowvKzXBctBy5yeOeLXk-lVAMb0A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38768157 38628077 38208051 37268110 35498381
35208520 35708514 37148383 38178287 38588209

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 24 06:37:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 240636
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-241235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1371
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Areas affected...Northeast NM...Portions of the OK/TX
Panhandles...Southeast CO...Western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240635Z - 241235Z

SUMMARY...Broken areas of heavy rainfall from locally training
showers and thunderstorms will continue through dawn. Some
localized areas of mainly urban flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery has shown some cooling
convective tops over the last hour across portions of far
southeast CO and into southwest KS as heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity here becomes a bit more organized. This
convection is part of a more elongated axis of moderate to heavy
rain that still extends southwestward down into northeast NM where
there are also some embedded stronger convective elements.

Ejecting mid-level shortwave from the southern Rockies will lift
up across the High Plains over the next several hours and should
continue to support areas of heavy rainfall with embedded
convection. This will be aided by deep layer southerly moisture
transport with anomalously high PWs (~1.25 to 1.5 inches), and
some modest pooling of instability.

MUCAPE values of 500+ J/kg are in place, but also coinciding with
stronger low-level moisture convergence and a corridor of
favorable upper-level jet support with favorable right-entrance
region jet dynamics noted in the 200/300 mb layer. This will help
encourage a stronger southerly low-level jet response with
magnitudes over the High Plains reaching upwards of 30 to 40 kts.

Going through dawn, some rainfall rates with the stronger
convective elements may reach 1.5 inches/hour, and with some
localized cell-training concerns in place, there may be some
additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals. This is strongly supported
by the 00Z HREF/REFS suite of guidance.

Some localized areas of flash flooding will be possible, with
generally the more urbanized areas at greatest risk for any
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4OkE2ONiJNP_yP5Nt1kB9Am4uG6p8_nihvrd5ziPYp8QSaBA9DoWxIohn_e0vSpoj3j4mHZf7woVzzCSkfRp2yxhJbE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40040057 39920008 39479995 38620030 37930067
37090118 35960207 35520278 35530367 36140423
37090414 37690382 38500327 39090269 39600211
39980135

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 24 07:47:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 240746
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-241345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1372
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast NM...Far Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240745Z - 241345Z

SUMMARY...Broken areas of showers and thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall rates will pose an isolated threat for flash
flooding going into the morning hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a shortwave
impulse ejecting northeastward out of northern Mexico and into
areas of southern NM. This energy has been driving some uptick in
convection across south-central to southeast NM and far western TX
over the last hour.

Some additional expansion of the convection will be possible going
into the morning hours as the energy interacts with an axis of
anomalously deep moisture with focused 850/700 mb moisture flux
riding up across the southern High Plains. This will also be
coinciding with modest instability characterized by MUCAPE values
of 500 to 1000 J/kg.

The increasing DPVA/shortwave dynamics over the immediate High
Plains may allow for some small-scale convective organization in
time this morning with some localized cell-training concerns. Some
of the hires guidance from the 00Z HREF and also recent HRRR runs
have been hinting at this. Generally areas of southeast NM and up
along the border with western TX will tend to have the greatest
potential for this where the existing instability is a bit better
established.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the
stronger storms, but with some cell-training potential, there may
be some additional rainfall totals through this morning of up to 2
to 3+ inches. These additional rains may result in some isolated
areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6yqJ1uI9WXb_6uyMrwckAEzS_dj0akOBIyTUCTO54zDZT6zyatsitfG4IN32u39KgT-facpyfbsooV5g8FmF3cv-bZ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35820353 35390236 34500223 33090274 31770332
30250420 30290511 30940578 31170611 31570698
31540833 31900866 32310840 32950747 33590634
34330553 35000493 35650433

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 24 12:11:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241211
FFGMPD
AZZ000-241630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1373
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Areas affected...Southwest to West-Central Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241210Z - 241630Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving clusters of thunderstorms capable of
1-1.25"/hr and spots of 1.5-2" totals pose localized flash
flooding through early morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES WV suite shows a compact shortwave along the
southern AZ, NW Sonora border aiding an outflow channel/jet streak
across western AZ but with weakening convective activity near the
core has resulted in a northward shift providing increased
entrance region divergence across west-central AZ. VWP shows
700mb convergent anti-cyclonic flow across the same general region
but with 25kts noted at KESX and KFSX slowing through the the area
of concern; this while surface to 850mb flow is weak but highly
confluent out of the Sun Valley westward toward the eastern
portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley. CIRA LPW notes a
narrow stripe of overlap of enhanced 850-700 and 700-500mb layer
across La Paz to northern Maricopa county locally reaching 1-1.25"
of total PWats; so moisture flux convergence below cloud base
supports the 700mb cloud base inflow for increased rainfall
production, especially given that 700mb flow is about 10-15kts
stronger than expected/forecast in most hi-res CAMs.

RAP also denotes this cluster of convective development across S
Yavapai/NE La Paz/NW Maricopa county shows some recent erosion of
the weak cap on a 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE to feed the solid vertical
ascent (enhanced by the aforementioned divergence aloft). The
overlap of these elements has been sufficient but highly
conditional, hence why there is limited support in
evolution/development in the hi-res CAMs. However, using
forecast fields from the RAP/HRRR combined with current trends,
suggests a few hours of additional maintenance is probable, in the
entrance region to the jet outflow. Slow south to
south-southwestward propagation is likely given the placement of
the 700-500mb anticyclonic flow and may even encourage some
localized cell mergers. So with rates up to 1-1.25" possible
given this environment/localized mergers. Scattered spots of
1.5-2" are not out of the realm of possibility. Given these rates
and totals are in the range of 1-3hr FFG values and spots of
rocky/limited soil for infiltation an incident or two of
focused/localized flash flooding is possible over the next few
hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5Ga96Suxwk_LCon3mW8qe3oj3FkWaiZbfK7vqp6zlXivJ2FcRIDrh5BxI6m_DZ7fAcesrfo5LX3HzsZAGQ-BhDhoQMw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34591340 34421239 33701203 33111231 32911291
33021383 33531421 34011414 34381395

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 24 12:46:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241246
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-241800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1374
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
845 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Areas affected...Western KS...Adj SW NEB...Western OK/NW TX
Panhandles...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241245Z - 241800Z

SUMMARY...A few remaining embedded convective elements with rates
up to 1-1.25"/hr falling across areas already pre-saturated may
result in a few localized increased run-off flooding concerns with
isolated reaggrivation to be considered low end flash flooding
through the morning hours, but for most areas rainfall will be
beneficial.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic shows slow transition of
rainfall pattern to broader moderate (.5"/hr) shield precipitation
pattern downstream of an increasingly tighter mid-level
circulation/MCV along the central CO/KS border; though along the
eastern/upwind edge there remain low slope isentropically forced
weaker convective elements given the remaining strong 30-35kt
southeasterly inflow. This inflow maintains some modest remaining conditionally unstable but only around 250 J/kg across the main
shield, but still a 1000 J/kg pocket across SW KS/OK Panhandle.
Upstream there is a secondary wave with a more traditionally bowed
convective arch lifting northeast out of NE NM toward this
instability pocket. Convergence from backed low-level flow
intersects and scattered developing convection is filling in.

HRRR and other reasonable Hi-Res CAMs suggest this remains the
best area for enhanced convection through the diurnal lull in instability/activity through late morning. Available 1.5-1.75"
total PWats and the tilted slope suggest slightly reduced
potential rate around 1-1.25"/hr. Though FFG values are lower
across SW KS, likely due to earlier 2-3"+ totals, additional
1.5-2.5" totals crossing the area (as well as compromised areas in
the OK/TX Panhandles) will have the greatest potential for low-end
rapid rise or reaggrivation of flooding conditions.

Elsewhere, the prolonged moderate rainfall nature within the broad
shield precipitation from far southwest NEB into NW KS is more
than likely going to be mostly beneficial, though localized
embedded convective elements bringing hourly totals near .75-1"
could be a low end problem as well mainly near urban or prone
streams/creeks in the region

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4oAd6TYYSza6Z0CBata0mR4J4MvwcvUNt_HCmo383Y-A_udHjeCWsByHrFjLCWX1ROgtH_synii--qQJ7atVuhqVO6I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40260034 40169930 39359927 38210044 37170125
35990179 35660225 35840280 36780292 37600275
39090222 39990137

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 24 18:39:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241839
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-250003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1375
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Areas affected...Pecos River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241838Z - 250003Z

Summary...Scattered backbuilding thunderstorms will likely lead to
flash flooding this afternoon. Significant flash flooding is
possible as heavy rainfall focuses over sensitive terrain in New
Mexico and Texas.

Discussion...As of 1820z, Day Cloud Phase and LightningCast
imagery highlight convective initiation in Lincoln and Chaves
counties on the fringe of the Sacramento mountains in New Mexico.
This uptick in activity could be in response to increasing divergence/diffluence aloft ahead of a subtropical jet-streak
evident in GOES DMWs, with little cloud cover to inhibit heating
along the terrain. As such, recent mesoanalysis trends show
instability is rapidly increasing across the area with 3 hr MLCAPE
changes of +400 J/kg noted.

When combined with 30-40 kts of mostly unidirectional effective
shear, training and locally backbuilding cells are expected to
expand in coverage over the next several hours in the highlighted
area. While the overall rainfall footprint will not be as
widespread compared to earlier this week, local rainfall amounts
of 2-4" are possible through 00z where the residence times of
individual storms are maximized. This scenario could support some
significant flash flooding, especially near the Sacramento
Mountains where the HREF and RRFS members show a 30-50% chance of
100 year QPF ARI exceedance through 00z over eastern Lincoln and
Chaves counties (highlighted in black). Confidence in heavy
rainfall is lower towards the southern half of the area towards
the Texas-New Mexico border, although with the complex terrain and
recent heavy rains it would not take much for 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates to generate at least scattered flash flooding.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-ukqOej9JmrVLEj27KzisS2EtkMpy_BYz55s2s-3ZoAGwGXAJI4Lz1Wg6Yr2Wi9E3RPPj1VgfaxhNgoNpl8gHvpjfCc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34470481 34190419 33420398 32660386 31320342
30530382 30550449 31120526 31860593 33140615
34210569

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 25 00:19:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 250019
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-250617-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1376
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 250017Z - 250617Z

Summary...Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will continue
across Southeast New Mexico into portions of West Texas leading to
continued threats of flash flooding over the high desert areas, as
well as the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains. Rainfall rates
between 1 to 2 inches per hour expected in the strongest
thunderstorms.

Discussion...Widespread convection remains prevalent across the
High Plains of eastern New Mexico back into the terrain of the
Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains with copious flash flood
warnings on going. Current environment remains prime for continued
impacts from heavy rainfall as prevailing south to southwest flow
aloft between the western fringe of the ridge centered over the
the Southern Plains and a weak upper level disturbance meandering
over AZ will lead to a persistent funneling of elevated moisture
and small shortwaves/mid-level perturbations moving out of Mexico
into the aforementioned area. Latest CAMs favor a steady footprint
of convection over parts of the Texas Panhandle back into
Southeast New Mexico with a small break back towards far West
Texas, at least for a short period of time this evening. Heavy
rain and scattered flash flood prospects remain forecast for much
of Southeastern NM, especially within the Upper Trans Pecos and
nearby Sacramento Mountains where significant hydrologic impacts
have already provided a degradation to the soil absorption
capabilities leading to heightened threats of run off, or adding
to the already occurring flooding in the region. Further
southwest, a bit less of an impact with regards to the antecedent
conditions back towards El Paso and neighboring areas, however
these areas are still subject to potentially significant impacts
given the environmental conditioning and deep layer moisture
presence as areal PWATs settle between +2 to +3 deviations above
normal when assessing the latest NAEFS/ECENS outputs for the
00z/25 time frame.

Rainfall totals via CAMs signal scattered totals of up to 2" with
some of the CAMs (HRRR/RRFS) signaling closer to 2-4" in the
hardest hit locations tonight. This matches some of the higher
neighborhood probs for the 18z HREF that bisected much of West TX
and Southeast NM with 30-50% chances of exceeding 3", especially
around the southern edge of the Sacramento Mountains and
northwestern Eddy county in NM. RRFS/NAM Nest continue to pin
heavy rainfall as far back as El Paso and Donna Anna counties in
far West TX which would enter into the urbanized zones more prone
to run off capabilities. If this were to occur, scattered flash
flood prospects would be a certainty given the state of the
environment in the area. Flash flooding is likely for this period
over the outlined area, especially as we move between 03-06z as a
shortwave disturbance lifts out of Mexico and enhances the
convective threat over far West TX into the southeast corner of
NM.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4qHP2Sp5wzZLIuZF2dct0eE--xsiB6U3fCSjYTZryXUQkEpAt8NNPb_KgnjS-4r5ji73SfdiqEusmqJiBrRgZc4BpU4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35320237 34920194 33760238 32100300 31550340
31030399 30680478 30850573 31490662 32120699
32960634 34560504 35140392

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 25 01:55:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 250152
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-250750-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1377
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
952 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into parts of Western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250150Z - 250750Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms moving into the TX Panhandle
this evening are expected to contain rainfall rates up to 2.5"/hr
and spread northeast, with isolated rainfall totals up to 3.5"
possible where storms train over the same area. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible, with greater impacts
expected within urban regions.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-East IR satellite loop and regional radar
indicate an axis of showers and thunderstorms slowly lifting
northeast within broad southerly flow to the east of an upper low
over the Southwest U.S.. PWs range from 1.4-1.7" in the region and
overlap within a corridor of 1000-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE spanning
from southeast NM to central OK and southwest KS. This will allow
for thunderstorms to not only maintain strength, but potentially
become more widespread in parts of the TX and OK Panhandles.
Low-mid level flow is also forecast to increase from current 25
kts to above 35 kts in response to a shortwave ejecting out of
northern Mexico.

Of the latest available CAMs, the 00z HRRR seems to have an okay
handle on latest convection across eastern NM into the TX
Panhandle and forecasts an additional 2-3" from near Amarillo, TX
northeastward into western OK and the eastern OK Panhandle. FFG
increases far areas east of Amarillo (2.5-3" per 3-hrs), so
impacts are most likely near urban centers and central/western
parts of the TX Panhandle. However, isolated to scattered flash
flooding is also possible elsewhere should thunderstorms remain
aligned in a northeast-southwest fashion.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4KVjT3segRRNlwjSsOyhrxOTmaYyuxWsfnehHMSRRu9az6Ig-nufWmjPgYQ3ktslqjfau6ySqxZToOjFGcB-FhUn1Js$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36819962 36549901 35799921 34950035 34430156
34520256 35060299 35600272 36280141

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 25 06:10:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 250610
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-251210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1378
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
209 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico, Far West Texas, and into
the western Cap Rock and Permian Basin of Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 250610Z - 251210Z

SUMMARY...Widespread showers and thunderstorms developing across
southeast NM and Far West TX are expected to contain rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr and pass over saturated/sensitive terrain through
early this morning. Scattered to numerous additional instances of
flash flooding are expected from additional rainfall totals of
2-3", with significant impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar, satellite, and surface observations
depicts another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms
moving across southern New Mexico and West Texas ahead of an
approaching upper shortwave extending from southeast AZ into far
northern Mexico. These thunderstorms are estimated to contain
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr (locally higher) and are generally
moving in a northeasterly direction. PWs within this region remain
anomalously high and in the 1-1.5" range, with MUCAPE around
500-1500 J/kg.

The primary driver for this flash flood threat; however, will be
associated with thunderstorms orienting parallel to the mean flow
for a short period of time as well as overlapping with inherently
sensitive and/or saturated terrain from the prior 24-hrs. This
mean layer flow is oriented mostly out of the south-southwest and
is also the direction thunderstorms have begun to line up in Far
West Texas into northern Mexico. This concerning setup will allow
for at least a few hours of rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and
additional rainfall totals of 3-4" from West TX into southeast NM
and adjacent areas of the western TX Panhandle. For areas near
Clovis, NM, this could add onto impressive rainfall from the past
12 to 24 hours, as well as prior reports of flash flooding, and
will exacerbate flooding concerns to the point where significant
impacts are possible. Areas near the hydrologically sensitive
Sacramento Mts are also at risk for these impressive rainfall
rates and rapid runoff. A developing outflow boundary south and
east of Lubbock, TX in the TX Panhandle is also a feature that
will play a role in continued moist ascent and lingering moderate
rainfall ahead of this main batch of thunderstorms.

Even with the training thunderstorm potential, the aforementioned
shortwave is expected to remain progressive to the northeast and
clear the region later this morning (after 12z), but this still
allows for about 6 additional hours of numerous showers and
thunderstorms.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8RudSSQSmR3WPnW34YvxpRK7JD5bnbAerX8kXeovg5X0II1vA06Y22rBD3oqFifUVKrGw2V-Z9sK55VPPdBLEl8oNUc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34660364 34590268 33890230 32220307 31100418
30770520 30920605 31360639 32100629 32750644
33300713 33830681 33860569 34040472

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 25 17:59:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 251759
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-252300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1379
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Areas affected...Northwest New Mexico...Adj East Central
Arizona..South-central Colorado...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251800Z - 252300Z

SUMMARY...Potential for widely scattered cells capable of quick 1"
totals posing focused/localized incident(s) of flash flooding
through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts elongated/filling closed low
center along the central AZ/NM border slowly lifting ENE, with a
well defined if not a bit narrow downstream dry slot across the
Rio Grande Valley nosing toward northeast NM. CIRA LPW delineates
this a bit better especially in the 700-500mb layer, with core of
enhanced mid-level moisture around and stretching northeastward
along the deformation zone/old connecting TROWAL into SW CO, with
.4-.5" values in the core. AMV and VWP across AZ and E NM also
highlight the sharp wind shift with 15-20kts of NNW quickly
shifting toward 15-20kts out of the SSW, supplying solid mid-level
convergence along the eastern tightening gradient of moisture.
Lingering surface to 850mb moisture can be seen across the Plateau
and so total PWat values remain at average to slightly above
average in the .75-.9" range; though there is still a
southwesterly fetch out of the desert SW of central AZ, that is
confluent through the eastern Mogollon Rim into the area of
concern and convergence axis.

While, there is some lingering clouds in the core of the
upper-low, clearer skies downstream with morning insolation has
brought increasing instability fields along the moisture gradient
and convergence axis, with SBCAPE values reaching 1000+ J/kg. As
such, within the northeast quadrant of the upper-low, positive
vorticity advection and aforementioned convergence in the
conditionally unstable air has resulted in isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms noted in Visible and regional RADAR
mosaic. Initially, rates of .5-.75"/hr, should progressively
improve as downstream continues to heat with some west to east
moisture advection, perhaps resulting in hourly rates toward 1.5"
given 20kts of inflow near cloud base. Deep layer flow toward the
NE would support some potential for repeating along the
convergence axis, but spacing may be too great and slow eastward
propagation of the axis will likely limit overall totals. As
such, sub-hourly totals of .5-1" are possible across NW NM into
north-central NM. Rugged terrain, burn scars and recent heavy
rainfall that has saturated the limited deep soils in the region,
suggests run-off will be greater than normal and may result in
highly localized isolated to widely scattered incident or two of
flash flooding this afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!56qp2SEtvQgMcF2g7CoLZvXniZefDi2A1m70AoTHSgM4-PUrytnyorahFCex0CwMZNnauhhRRyd0oZxwVf6bpSzANGY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38030756 37900645 37090584 35920569 34440616
33720731 33910928 34910963 35990938 37460835

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 25 18:34:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 251833
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1380
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Eastern New Mexico...Western
TX Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251835Z - 260030Z

SUMMARY...Scattered upslope convection in wake of very heavy
rainfall over the last few days to result in spots of 1-2.5"
totals especially in terrain and lead to possible localized flash
flooding events through evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a strong, well defined closed
low centered along the AZ/NM border with extending mid-level trof
axis toward an effective triple point/secondary shortwave feature
over SE CO. This is leading to solid upslope flow regime across
the Southern High Plains and West Texas Panhandle. Traditional
surface cyclogenesis over SE CO is also helping to accelerate
surface to 850mb flow northward as well and perhaps not resulting
in strong convergence on the Colorado Sangre de Cristo Range, but
near the low should support strong moisture flux for convective
initiation in the early afternoon.
CIRA LPW/LVT shows enhanced moisture, core of the warm conveyor
belt is now lifting across the central Plains, though lingering
moisture in the lowest levels remains banked across NE NM/SE CO
with values of 1-1.25"; though further south, return flow can be
seen out of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos Region to fill back
1.25+ total PWats into the hardest hit areas of SE NM.

GOES-E visible also shows the main core of clouds have moved out
and full insolation is already occurring with building Cu along
the main ridge lines in the upslope flow. Mountain cycle enhanced
by steepening lapse rates aloft from approaching dry slot will
further help strengthen updrafts in the coming hours, with MLCAPEs
already building to 1000-1500 J/kg in the Sacramento Range and
West Texas Panhandle and slowly rising above 500 through the
Sangre de Cristo with expectation of 1000-1500 J/kg in SE CO in
the next 2-3 hours. Though as core of overall moisture is
leaving, the overall coverage should be reducing a bit; however,
with the stronger mid-level flow, effective bulk shear remains
sufficient for organized updrafts. Additionally, steering is
still more south to north, especially further south into SE NM/W
TX. Best convergence in upslope regime with height-falls still
upstream, may allow for prolonged convergence along the slope
lines to result in effective back-building, repeating nature in
the terrain. So with 1.5"/hr rates and potential increased
residency of a few hours, suggests scattered spots of 1-2.5"
totals are possible. This is similar to the evolution noted in
the RRFS, which appears most aggressive but supported by other 12z
ARW/ARW2 and recent HRRR solutions in overall character/evolution
through the afternoon and evening.

Given the strong rates and overall totals, incidents of flash
flooding will be considered likely though widely scattered in
coverage, but in particular across the southern portion of the MPD
area in Sacramento Range, Davis Range and any cells in SE NM where
FFG values are compromised below 1.5" in most locations (even
though 6hr time length).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5MpsMPSHqNlFlFKsQJAWQWve3k-t_p_CelQBmyhe4kL5625zRcmmlKQ0csdvkO5flDi32dwZbN4bAbrgvvWhMzfKSVs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38030403 37530351 35640388 34520321 33240329
32280342 31640330 30940297 30290378 30580520
31870653 33790631 35510592 36940551 37780492

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 26 01:13:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 260113
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-260710-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1381
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
912 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central and east-central New Mexico into
the western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260110Z - 260710Z

SUMMARY...An axis of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
containing rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr tracking across parts of the
central into east-central New Mexico are expected to maintain for
a few additional hours and lead to a continued risk for at least
scattered instances of flash flooding. This is especially likely
in sensitive terrain of the southern Rockies, urban areas, and
regions with saturated ground conditions from prior rainfall over
the last day or so.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar data and GOES-East IR satellite
imagery depicts an axis of thunderstorms oriented west-southwest
to east-northeast from central to east-central New Mexico and
containing MRMS estimated rainfall rates up to 2"/hr at times.
this orientation is parallel to the mean-layer flow as a shortwave
trough swings through overhead and an upper ridge axis remains
centered over the ArkLaTex. PWs in the southern High Plains banked
against the terrain of the southern Rockies are around 1-1.2",
with MLCAPE remaining sufficient and in the 1500-2500 J/kg range.
This will support thunderstorms continuing for at least another 3
to 6 hours, while slowly pushing southeast. Even with the gradual
movement of these showers and thunderstorms, low FFGs and
sensitive terrain (as well as ongoing Flash Flood Warnings) prompt
the likely expectation of additional flash flooding.

Recent 21z RRFS and 00z HRRR weaken thunderstorms quickly this
evening, but given recent parameters and radar it is expected that thunderstorms will maintain potent updrafts and organization for
at least a few additional hours until the aforementioned shortwave
clears the region to the northwest and instability wanes overnight.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-QA-Lsm_uSZ2Xw9ICF-zS40-Z8ICLSYeQJzyDg64ht0bZ4D4hrb1XmF7_wlLnKwLjFbZ99ipjKDcrGcByjUTKcXjuns$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35680410 35570293 34650276 33890419 33110685
33720744 34770620

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 26 03:26:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 260326
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-260825-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1382
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Areas affected...North-Central Kansas into parts of
south-central/eastern Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260325Z - 260825Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms over north-central Kansas
tonight with estimated rainfall rates up to 2.5"/hr may train over
similar areas and move into parts of south-central/eastern
Nebraska. This could lead to scattered rainfall totals over 3" and
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and GOES-East IR satellite imagery
depicts strengthening thunderstorms across north-central KS ahead
of a lifting mid-level shortwave/MCV. MRMS estimates hourly rates
briefly near 3" within this complex as it slowly pushes northward.
PWs within the area range from 1.75-1.9" and are above the 99th
climatological percentile per the NAEFS SAT. Additionally, MLCAPE
remains above 500 J/kg, but is greater across north-central KS and
much lower into eastern NE. Therefore, rates are expected to be
highest in north-central KS and into nearby adjacent NE, with
coverage of moderate rainfall becoming greater as the night goes
on in central/eastern NE, except without the higher rates
necessary for flash flooding.

With these parameters in place, as well as mean-layer flow out of
the south-southwest and parallel to the current axis of
thunderstorms across north-central KS, the greatest short-term
flash flood threat is across north-central KS. Scattered flash
flooding is possible where rainfall totals exceed 2-3" given the
local FFG in the area. Lastest MRMS suggests this has already been
achieved near Osborne, KS and HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities
for at least 2" through 09Z are 20-30%. However, coverage of these
amounts are expected to remain low enough for only isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding within the highlighted
region and a greater focus in north-central KS as previously noted.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7ejfeapMoXYliQ_QkTLjksW8B8H1n7Ccn1ostI556z31-w-aGqLhzhbE87QeumThfrknX05bd1ln-60smp3dcUqQEaY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41769765 41499663 40709666 39829723 39129811
39049901 39339945 40159949 41229881

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 26 19:08:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 261908
FFGMPD
TXZ000-270105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1383
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Areas affected...western TX/Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261905Z - 270105Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms may result in isolated flash
flooding across portions of western TX into the Big Bend region
through this evening. Peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
(locally higher) with isolated storm totals near 3 inches will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES East visible imagery from 1840Z showed building
cumulus across the higher terrain of the Trans Pecos region of
western TX along with early convective development near the Glass
Mountains. This region was devoid of larger scale forcing with
mean westerly flow aloft noted on water vapor imagery, in the wake
of a departing shortwave across the central Plains. Moisture was
anomalous however, with the 12Z MAF and DRT soundings showing 1.6
to 2.0 inches of precipitable water (near the climatological max
for late September). This moisture was largely focused in the low
to mid levels with increasingly drier upper levels as one moves
northwest into southeastern NM per the latest layered PW imagery.

Deeper layer steering flow was 10-15 kt from the west near
Midland-Odessa and weakened to the south near 5 kt at Big Bend
N.P. Clear skies have helped contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
via the 18Z SPC mesoanalysis, focused along a weakly defined low
level convergence axis which extended from near Big Bend to near
MAF to near CDS. Better moisture was located east of the low level
convergence axis with drier air to the west.

Continued daytime heating will likely contribute to scattered
thunderstorms by 21Z across western TX into the Big Bend region
with the environment supportive of hourly rainfall between 1-2
inches (isolated higher possible). An increase in low level
convergence is expected along the trough axis toward 00Z which
should support a SW to NE axis of thunderstorms by this evening
into northwestern TX, but the flash flood concern is currently
greatest with the slower cell motions to the south. Surface
dewpoint depressions of 20-30 degrees may allow for numerous
outflow boundaries but with slow cell motions and additional
thunderstorm development, isolated flash flooding could occur
across locally sensitive terrain or overlap of any population
centers.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5_K8KXGWcVBv9YwjP4UG8Lvn1EPln-L__Fm3eAXdMVH0G7dPmv7kCdFaYmOdBOgjZxyF-Q_8h88RJC8b_JQzjkCp6DU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32250177 31950104 31160103 30150198 29630243
29080281 28900336 29290441 30050498 31200474
31720328 32210248

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 28 17:37:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 281737
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-282330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1384
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...Desert CA into southern NV, northwestern AZ and
southwestern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281734Z - 282330Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorms are expected into the afternoon
from southern NV into southwestern UT, northwestern AZ and the
desert regions of southern CA. Rainfall intensities are also
expected to increase over time, with 15 minute rates reaching 0.5
to 1.0 inches within the stronger cells. Repeating rounds may
allow for peak rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches through 00Z.

DISCUSSION...Loops of layered PW imagery from OSPO showed the
advection of tropical moisture in the vicinity of Hurricane Polo
and former TC Odalys streaming northeastward into the southwestern
U.S. with 12Z soundings from VEF and SLC showing total PW values
of 1.1 and 0.9 inches (respectively), and MLCAPE of <500 J/kg with
weak CIN. These PW values are near the 95th percentile to near the climatological max for late September via SPC sounding
climatology. 17Z visible imagery from GOES West showed clear to
mostly clear skies along the western edge of the anomalous
moisture axis from southern CA into and across the NV/AZ/UT
tri-state region but scattered showers and thunderstorms were
ongoing over NV/UT, to the west of I-15, from Lincoln County NNE
into western UT within the greatest available instability.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 17Z showed that MLCAPE was 500 to 1000
J/kg from eastern San Bernardino County into southeastern NV and a
small portion of western UT but these values are forecast to
increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range with continued daytime
heating. The greatest instability is forecast by the RAP along the
CO River Valley into southern NV and along the western UT/AZ
border. Increased forcing for ascent will arrive through 00Z ahead
of a positively tilted mid-level low/trough approaching from
CA/NV, accompanied by increasingly diffluent flow aloft just ahead
of the trough axis.

As thunderstorms likely increase in coverage over the next 1-3
hours, individual cells are forecast to follow the mean deeper
layer steering flow at 15-30 kt toward the northeast but the setup
will favor repeating rounds of thunderstorms along with brief
training. Hourly rainfall could locally exceed 1 inch as
instability increases later in the day but 15-minute rainfall
values of 0.5 to 1.0 inches could be the larger concern for flash
flood potential. Overlap of high rain rates with low water
crossings, slot canyons, burn scars and/or other areas of poor
drainage will be at most risk for flash flood impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_APBdPatkBWFM043hv2NO8UDyRAuO3DDT_fGy4qxo48p4VIPiAj8MMtewupZc5qA7i6f6WR-om458JkpXXGJW10XMZg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39531303 39091246 38201227 37341226 36881219
36051228 34581394 34221476 34151595 34851623
35991591 37231548 38791503 39361399

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 28 20:02:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 282001
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-290100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1385
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282000Z - 290100Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage increases over eastern Arizona and
western New Mexico rest of this afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1.0
inches per hour are likely in the stronger cells. Repeating rounds
could allow rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches to 01Z.

DISCUSSION...As of 20Z...Tropical moisture plume from the eastern
Pacific from both Polo and Odalys is streaming northeastward into
AZ/NM. 18Z PW from El Paso (KEPZ) raob is 1.4" and RAP analysis of
about that much extends west into southern AZ. These should
increase a couple tenths of an inch rest of this afternoon with
southerly low level flow around 10kt. A corridor of breaks in the clouds/insolation remains over southeast AZ and west-central NM
and is helping to destabilize this area (with SBCAPE of 500 to
1000 J/kg per the RAP mesoanalysis) where scattered thunderstorms
have developed over the past hour. A surface low is apparent in
southeast AZ which is on the leading edge of a possible shortwave
coming in from Mexico. Increasing moisture and diurnal heating
will promote increasing thunderstorm coverage and the risk for
flash flooding rest of the afternoon.

As thunderstorms increase in coverage through mid afternoon,
individual cells are forecast to follow the 25-30kt SWly mean deep
layer flow with brief training likely. Hourly rainfall should
locally reach or exceed 1 inch which warrants a flash flood
concern. Overlap of high rain rates with low water crossings, slot
canyons, burn scars and/or other areas of poor drainage will be at
most risk for flash flood impacts.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs are underdone with this activity, but
have development in this area through the next six hours. Maxima
of 2 to 3 inches and widely scattered flash flooding are possible.
Heavy rain should approach I-25 in NM by 01Z with downstream
followup statements expected overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9GwO8gSHnuYnN5R9CKQ9u0fmKKcPsICf2TGqknOhBfNkKGQUC3cuTZAfJk_BMAEmx_255xOTfwGJjLo7m56ADqErZ8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36770757 36140678 34160710 32750668 31660693
31030881 31381029 32571052 33621074 35420948
36270906

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 28 20:46:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 282046
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290244-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1386
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282044Z - 290244Z

SUMMARY...Linear thunderstorms developing along a slow moving warm
front will increase in coverage into this evening over eastern
North Dakota into South Dakota and east into western Minnesota.
Rainfall rates of 2"/hr are likely to continue in the stronger
cells. Increased duration of heavy rain from the slow motion could
allow rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches to 03Z.

DISCUSSION...As of 2030Z...Strong SSWly low level flow around 30kt
continues to stream up the Great Plains and converge on a warm
front over southern North Dakota in the wake of an MCV now
tracking east over north-central MN. Moisture is pooling around
1.5" along this front which is about 3 standard deviations above
normal. Sufficient instability (SBCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg) is
present south of the front and is aiding redevelopment of the
frontal line. Rain rate estimates from nearby radars peak at
2"/hr. Much of this area has been dry recently with drought
conditions. So flash flooding should be limited to areas with the
highest rainfall. Instability decreases east into MN and
increasing toward northwest South Dakota. Therefore the main focus
for expanded development should be to the southwest while current
activity develops as it drifts north. Another discussion farther
southwest into WY may be needed.

The 19Z HRRR and 18Z RRFS runs have a decent handle on this
activity with the RRFS really favoring western development while
the HRRR has heavy rain into MN. The discussion area is a bit of a
compromise from ongoing activity and consideration of these two
models. Maxima of 2 to 3 inches and localized flash flooding are
considered possible through 02Z. The threat for heavy
thunderstorms refocuses over similar areas overnight as the LLJ
further increases and possibly becomes more oriented with the
front, so subsequent discussions and increasing flash flood
coverage can be expected overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!57wAeGBJEaEY72JNtQM6deWc2vQIJxsyZjwxI7xm4U-R-JBizqh8tkAe8ZUn377RIJIX4jgiTVs7uJYaVPfshQuy-0w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47939591 46749558 46059695 45450144 46150150
46909991 47769748

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 28 21:38:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 282138
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-290336-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1387
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...Northern Black Hills to North-Central South
Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282136Z - 290336Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms north of the Black Hills should
continue to develop and track east over northwest South Dakota
though this evening. Slow movement and repeating cells should
continue to allow localized rates of 2"/hr as coverage increases.
Flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2130Z...Scattered thunderstorms just north of
the Black Hills have developed in the warm sector ahead of a cold
front moving in from MT. Instability has increased from earlier
sunshine over northwest SD with SBCAPE now around 2000 J/kg.
Gulf-sourced moisture increases to the east as well with PW of
1.4" over north-central SD to 1" on the WY border where elevation
is higher. Warm sector activity should increase in coverage and
deep layer SWly flow should enable repeating cells and upwind
propagation. Despite ongoing drought conditions, localized flash
flooding is possible where the heavier cells repeat the most which
should generally be north of Rapid City and into north-central SD.

Recent HRRR and are behind on the ongoing activity but agree on
development east from there with a risk for 1-3" through 03Z. This
activity should shift farther east by late this evening as the
cold front advances through the discussion area.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7TUzyrlFdGYKf2LUfIr4uODQ0j7PjqEnWy7GmlAy6lisJcwFoug0YB6qL-mzfdxrw5rnuVxyWuAgR7oRF_tfpAy_Kyk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...BYZ...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 46220156 44910104 44260305 44030459 44250489
44940425 45350381 46000311

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 28 23:01:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 282300
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-290458-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1388
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...Chihuahuan Desert and Sacramento Mountains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282258Z - 290458Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters over the northern Mexican state of
Chihuahua will continue to shift northeast over far west Texas and
southern New Mexico through this evening. Heavy rainfall should
cause isolated flash flooding, particularly for urban areas and
sensitive terrain to 05Z.

DISCUSSION...As of 23Z...Moisture plumes from the western Gulf and
the tropical eastern Pacific are converging southwest of El Paso
where thunderstorm clusters have formed. This activity is in an
area of rising PW (1.6", potentially reaching 1.75" after 00Z) and
ample instability (SBCAPE of 2000 J/kg) which is promoting heavy
rain. Unidirectional SWly flow is aiding repeating cells as they
slowly approach the southern NM and far western TX borders.
Instability is currently limited above the Mexican border, but the
strong advective flow, and presence of a surface trough extending
north from the clusters should bring enough across the border to
warrant a likely flash flood threat, with possible considerable
impacts for this evening.

Recent RRFS runs limit heavy rain along or south of the border
while recent HRRRs advect heavy rain through far western TX and
south-central NM through the Sacramento Mountains through 05Z.
Since the sensitive El Paso metro area is in play from both pieces
of guidance, flash flooding is considered likely.

Further heavy rain is expected through this area and beyond
overnight, so expect further discussions and potentially greater
impacts from flash flooding.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8SWzFZ543Eqfd9BODnLa0EetZ0S52xWR34ij5U1S8DjiEJmKzMnILyw0kPsDLs1u9XQu1kODazJ4isB9fm-Zd7d4pwk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33900539 32650535 31280471 30180417 29540450
29920563 31040674 31120799 32200837 33180754
33870684

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 28 23:31:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 282331
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-290529-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1389
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Arizona into Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282329Z - 290529Z

SUMMARY...A slow moving line of heavy thunderstorms will continue
to drift east from the Mohave Valley, northwestern AZ, and central
Utah through this evening. Repeating activity should allow for
continued rainfall totals of 1 to 2, local 3 inches through 05Z.

DISCUSSION...Tropical moisture from Polo and Odalys continue
streaming northeast over the Southwest with PW of 1.2" through
Lake Mead and an axis continuing northeast from there through
southern Utah. Instability is sufficient with SBCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg along a line of thunderstorms from the Mohave Valley through
northwest AZ and south0central Utah.

Deep layer, unidirectional SWly flow downstream of a mid-level low
over southern CA will continue to slow the eastward progression of
this line as it continues to redevelop. Repeating rounds of
thunderstorms will continue to allow hourly rates to exceed 1
inch. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs highlight that additional 2 to
locally 3 inches should continue, particularly in Arizona. These
high rain rates will continue to cause scattered flash flooding,
particularly for low water crossings, slot canyons, burn scars
and/or other areas of poor drainage. Both CAMs have this activity
waning after 05Z, so subsequent discussions may not be needed for
this area overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-MEPs2_7YepNejpJj2xqNu8uOndFItzIwS1WW_KlZMyohxAzDNDHGmkLriz3JGXufJaZULZ1sca5Urj72Y71v1BwRdQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40001026 39910950 38940915 36951104 34961303
34201484 35461466 36941357 38101263 39311155

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 02:45:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290245
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1390
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1044 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...North Dakota into Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290243Z - 290800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing along a stationary
front will increase in coverage and intensify overnight. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows a slow
expansion of reflectivity aligned west to east across North Dakota
and into Minnesota. This activity is blossoming along a stationary
front analyzed by WPC, and in response to an increasing 850mb LLJ
analyzed via VWPs and measured via the SPC RAP to be 30-35 kts
from the south. This LLJ is originating from a plume of impressive thermodynamics characterized by PWs above 1.4 inches and MLCAPE as
high as 1000 J/kg, with the resulting southerly inflow driving
convergence and isentropic ascent to drive the increasing
convection. Weak impulses embedded within SW flow ahead of a
mid-level trough are additionally providing the impetus for lift,
and this developing convection has already resulted in MRMS hourly
rainfall as high as 1.25".

The high-res CAMs are in good agreement that activity will
continue to expand and intensify overnight, despite some
differences in the placement of the heaviest rainfall. Impressive
850-700mb LPW surging northward will impinge into the front as it
wavers across the area, suggesting convective development will
repeatedly occur in close proximity to this boundary. This
activity will likely exhibit training as mean 0-6km winds align to
the front, with some backbuilding expected thanks to the
accelerating inflow leading to veering Corfidi vectors back into
the more robust thermodynamics. With rainfall rates expected to be
1-2"/hr (30% chance of 2"/hr from the HREF), this could result in
2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts exceeding 4". As the
shortwave trough sweeps eastward, this should eventually help push
activity more into MN leading to additional flash flood potential
downstream, but the greater risk appears to focus over southern
and eastern ND.

0-40cm soil moisture across ND is generally below the 20th
percentile, while recent rainfall has been greater over MN leading
to higher antecedent soil moisture. However, FFG is generally
consistent at 1-1.5"/3hrs, for which the HREF exceedance
probabilities reach above 50% (and above 80% for the 2-yr RIs).
This suggests that even in areas that have been dry during the
past 7-10 days, an isolated to scattered flash flood risk exists
where any training of these intense rain rates can occur.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7qVKd-TCiFzlk0-PX5SlIEilmyGAxn6yeUN56ThRVQB95ouChB8ZG3BM_8ZOSP9gGC9esJP6jQXgxZV7yW0gX0qj5yM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48719331 48559272 48099318 47509402 46729547
46009753 45999927 45970178 46220281 46870323
47390287 47560211 47690067 48029807 48119711
48519438

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 03:39:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290339
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1391
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1138 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Areas affected...South Dakota, northern Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290337Z - 290900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold
front will track E/NE overnight with rainfall rates reaching 1"/hr
at times. Through training, this could produce 1-3" of rain,
leading to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR satellite imagery this evening shows
the onset of cooling cloud tops embedded within a larger cloud
shield across South Dakota. This is indicative of deepening
convection, which is additionally noted via expanding elevated
reflectivity on the regional radar mosaic. This fresh convection
is a result of increasing deep layer lift through intensifying
upper diffluence within the RRQ of a jet streak combined with
subtle height falls and PVA downstream of a shortwave exiting from
Nebraska. This ascent is acting upon favorable thermodynamics for
heavy rainfall, as PWs measured by GPS of 1.2 to 1.4 inches
overlap a ribbon of MUCAPE measured via the SPC RAP of 500-1000
J/kg.

During the next few hours, thunderstorm development is expected to
expand across SD and dig into parts of NE as well. This will be in
response to a persistent 30kt LLJ arcing northward ahead of an
approaching cold front to draw impressive thermodynamics
northward. The high-res CAMs suggest generally scattered activity
tonight, but 30-40 kts of bulk shear may allow for storm
organization into clusters to enhance the rainfall threat.
Regardless, there is moderate to high confidence in at least 1"/hr
rain rates developing (40-60% chance from both the HREF and REFS)
with scattered higher rates probable within any organized
clusters. This has the potential to yield 1-3" of rainfall, with
locally higher amounts where short-term training can lengthen the
duration of heavy rain.

FFG across the region is generally 1-1.5"/3hrs, although much
higher over the Sandhills of NE. While there is some disagreement
between the REFS and HREF probabilities as to where the heaviest
rainfall will occur overnight, the general axis occurring from the
Sandhills northeast into central SD suggests a relatively lower
vulnerability across NE, supported additionally by greater FFG
exceedance probabilities in SD. This implies a higher risk for at
least isolated flash flooding over parts of SD through the
overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9iFk5cd0a5I-gCMw5mRod-YikuMAAQ009yYuOADTr47XHOlYPPnV6siHpfTXbyLVW88xm3LLm5OLhiJy9_0f_fHfG7U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...CYS...FSD...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 46089892 45939813 45099798 44089846 43559882
42989946 42650054 42530155 42420291 42900300
44230238 45480173 45950078

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 05:20:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290520
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-291115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1392
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Low Deserts of California through Southern
Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290517Z - 291115Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will gradually expand across
the low deserts of California and Arizona through the overnight
hours. This activity may result in hourly rainfall as high as
1.5", leading to additional instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery this evening depicts an
impressive plume of moisture spilling northeast downstream of an
anomalous upper low spinning over southern CA. This enhanced
moisture, reaching above the 95th percentile within the 700-500mb
and 500-300mb layer according to CIRA, is being advected northward
from tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Polo positioned
near Baja California Sur. Convection has been ongoing much of the
evening near the CA/NV/AZ borders associated with 700mb
convergence, and an outflow boundary emanating from the earlier
activity is providing a focus for additional ascent and new
thunderstorm development. Hourly rainfall within this new
convection has already reach 0.5"-1" according to MRMS within this
extreme moisture plume.

Activity so far this evening has been mostly confined due to a
lack of meaningful instability. However, recent SPC RAP analyses
suggest that the persistent and unidirectional SW flow in the
low-to-mid levels have begun to draw higher MUCAPE northward to
support renewed development into AZ. This suggests that convection
will begin to rapidly develop as height falls, mid-level thickness
diffluence, upper divergence, and this increasing instability all
overlap within the anomalous PWs. The high-res CAMs, including the
HRRR and UA WRF, are aggressive with redevelopment over the
southern half of AZ during the next few hours, with hourly
rainfall potentially reaching 1.5" at times. This rainfall is
expected despite what should be fast storm motions to the
northeast on 0-6km mean winds of 25-35 kts, as aligned Corfidi
vectors lead to training of echoes. Where multiple rounds of
thunderstorms occur, locally as much as 3" of rainfall is possible.

This region is naturally vulnerable to flash flooding due to
sensitive terrain features like dry washes, arroyos, and burn
scars, and is even more sensitive tonight due to recent rain that
has resulted in 0-40cm soil moisture above the 95th percentile.
Both 1-hr and 3-hr FFG exceedance probabilities from the HREF
reach 30-50%, and although the REFS is a bit lower, the setup and
antecedent sensitivity suggest the risk for flash flooding impacts
will steadily increase during the next few hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_cDgJZaZCloHF_ppr13YcjSDvhjso_OnbXEe5zOkL7QmYekyMVssLjf-MgnZv3sCBRtYUIj9azmjA0AaYHS_s8sIfR0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35461419 35391223 34290967 33700945 33060992
32311089 31751185 31971318 32531499 33001589
33431635 34031652 34551602 34981525

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 07:37:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290737
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-291300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1393
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas northward through the
Permian Basin and into the Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290735Z - 291300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in
coverage and repeat from south to north overnight. Rainfall rates
as much as 1"/hr are likely, which could produce 1-3" of rain.
This rain atop saturated soils could cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows expanding
coverage of showers and thunderstorms aligned from the Texas Big
Bend north through the Permian Basin and into the Texas Panhandle.
This activity is building along a moisture convergence axis on the
upwind flank of a 925-850mb LLJ spreading across central TX. PWs
across the region have climbed to as high as 1.6 inches in West
Texas to 1.2 inches across the Panhandle, both above the 90th
percentile for the date. This elevated moisture is being advected
northward from the tropics, primarily between the 700-500mb layer
as noted in LPW fields, and is combining with MUCAPE of 500-1000
J/kg. and warm cloud depths around 12,000 ft to produce an
environment favorable for heavy rainfall through warm rain
processes.

During the next few hours, a shortwave emerging from the Mexican
Plateau will lift northward to help push a wave of low pressure
along the NM/TX border. At the same time, S/SW 925-700mb flow will
surge the stationary front northward to allow for a broadening of
the thermodynamic advection. With the LLJ core remaining to the
east, any subtle backing of the wind field will continue the
impressive moisture convergence, and where this overlaps with the
persistent 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, it will lead to rounds of
thunderstorms lifting northward into the early morning hours.

While the coverage may generally remain scattered, any of these
storms has a 10-30% chance (HREF neighborhood probabilities) of
producing hourly rainfall of 1 inch, which through repeating
rounds may produce locally as much as 3 inches. This will pose an
increasing flash flood concern as antecedent soils are extremely
moist, as reflected by NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture that is
above the 98th percentile in many areas from 7-day rainfall that
has been generally 200-600 percent of normal. This has compromised
FFG to around 2"/3hrs, indicating that soils are already
vulnerable, and any additional heavy rain moving atop them could
quickly lead to runoff and instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!__ANIWgpo52x56wUqXWaTXP3nUrEwpMlOiM9ApcypYL1jPa4wHHorH9OE6x-HjwNp322G32gpChyL1XZsmj4ygHDgnk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36020323 35860237 35150097 34400095 33200128
32130195 31310237 30720278 30260309 29860348
29600413 29740465 30300492 30930497 32860410
35370374

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 08:08:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290808
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-291400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1394
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...North Dakota into northern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290806Z - 291400Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
train along a stationary front through the early morning. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr, at times potentially greater, will create an
additional 2-3" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts. This may
cause instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows an expansion
of high reflectivity across North Dakota associated with
strengthening convection along a stationary front analyzed by WPC.
This activity is developing in response to an impressive overlap
of ascent and moisture as low-level convergence and upper
diffluence merge within an extreme moisture plume reflected by
LPWs that are above the 95th percentile according to CIRA from New
Mexico all the way to North Dakota. Although MUCAPE has remained
modest (around 500 J/kg), the extreme PWs and ample deep layer
ascent are sufficient to negate the relative dearth of
instability, and recent MRMS hourly rainfall has been above 2
inches leading to FLASH unit streamflow responses of 200-500
cfs/smi across parts of Stutsman, Barnes, and Griggs counties, ND.

Moisture advection will remain impressive into the morning as the
850mb LLJ, measured around 30 kts on regional VWPs, only slowly
veers from S to SW. This will maintain an impressive draw of rich
low-level theta-e air and sufficient instability out of NE/SD to
support efficient rainfall as reflected by both HREF and REFS
probabilities for 1"/hr rates remaining 20-40% for several more
hours. Additional convective development should primarily occur in
the immediate vicinity of the stationary front as it lifts slowly
northeast, and with 0-6km mean winds aligned to both this front
and the accompanying Corfidi vectors, training of echoes from WSW
to ENE is likely. Where the most prolonged training occurs, total
rainfall of 2-3" is expected, with locally higher totals possible
(10-30% chance of more than 3").

As already experienced tonight, through training, these efficient
rainfall rates can quickly lead to rapid runoff and elevated
streamflow responses. Any additional heavy rain will only
exacerbate this concern, and as FFG falls in response (it is now
as low as 0.75"/3hrs in some areas), instances of flash flooding
may result until activity begins to more steadily move eastward in
response to more rapid veering of the LLJ by late morning.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7GMCALplC7hrQepB1d9j-KYv29yn750mHQc2xpQoWBpskWESDuCH61EZSBOBVLbmuOo3lo18BM13Eje0h1JRvS_jZpk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48889484 48849369 48679313 47819331 46779525
46089731 45959915 46000034 46340126 46870118
46970111 47680006 48459747

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 08:55:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 290854
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-291445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1395
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona and Southern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290852Z - 291445Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will slowly expand across
southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico overnight. Hourly
rainfall of 1 inch is possible in stronger cells, which may lead
to flash flooding.

Discussion...GOES-E IR imagery tonight depicts pockets of cooling
cloud tops accompanying thunderstorm development from southern
Arizona into southern New Mexico. This activity is blossoming in
response to increasing deep layer ascent through diffluence along
the approaching upper jet streak pivoting to the northeast
overlapping convergence on the northern periphery of modest 10-15
kts 850mb winds. This region is positioned within an impressive
moisture plume noted via CIRA 700-500mb and 500-300mb LPWs that
are approaching the 99th percentile, coincident with deeply
saturated soundings on the 00Z RAOBs from ABQ and EPZ. Despite
modest MUCAPE which has been generally less than 500 J/kg to slow
convective development in this area tonight, a subtle surge has
begun to lift north, which within this extremely moist column is
sufficient to drive increasing LightningCast probabilities and be
the impetus for this new convective development.

While the CAMs are only modestly excited about overnight
convection in south-central New Mexico, both HREF and REFS
probabilities have an increased signal farther west. This is
likely due to more pronounced ascent (closer to the upper jet
core) occurring within a stronger draw of instability from the
south, and the CAMs indicate widespread thunderstorms by morning
in SE Arizona and SW New Mexico. This widespread activity is
formed through a combination of storms advecting in from the west,
as well as additional development occurring near the Sonora
/Chihuahua borders.

This more impressive signal from SW Arizona through SW New Mexico
is also reflected by the higher probability (10-30% from the REFS
and HREF) for hourly rainfall up to 1 inch, and these cells may
exhibit short-duration training thanks to modest organization on
30-40 kts of bulk shear and aligned mean winds/propagation
vectors. While these rates themselves could be sufficient to
overwhelm the soils (0-40cm soil moisture above the 98th
percentile and accompanying 1-hr FFG as low as 0.75"), any
training could produce locally as much as 3" of rain (10% chance)
which would enhance the flash flood risk. While the greatest risk
overnight appears to be across SE Arizona and SW New Mexico, the
vulnerability of the soils across this entire region indicates
that any intense rain could quickly become runoff leading to flash
flood impacts.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6oBwuKasamlWB-phcknuiyEaok37NQbGA4kA1PJv2v7I1NhlzATEfzh9h5CkLdSd-g6-P26sLIBDiW74GJUitDP_9e8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34330669 34260547 33790439 33180389 32460396
31860467 31460558 31160692 31190893 31191088
31421175 31741225 32561130 33800964 34210816

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 11:21:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 291121
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-291720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1396
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern AZ...Western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 291120Z - 291720Z

SUMMARY...Expanding showers and thunderstorms this morning with
high rainfall rates will likely result in areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR/WV satellite imagery shows a
strong upper trough and associated closed low amplifying into the
Southwest U.S., with satellite showing cooling convective tops
across areas of central and southern AZ along with some portions
of western NM. Radar imagery confirms the uptick in convective
organization with areas of strong thunderstorm activity tending to
expanding in coverage while producing increasingly heavy rainfall
rates.

Enhanced deep layer ascent/forcing associated with DPVA ahead of
the upper trough coupled with moist deeper layer southwest flow
ahead of it along with modest instability will support an
additional expansion of convection over the next several hours.
MUCAPE values are as high as 500 to 1000 J/kg, with PWs of 1.5 to
1.7 inches. The greatest combination of moisture and instability
is generally over southern AZ, and as the enhanced dynamics with
the amplifying upper trough arrive this morning, there should
rather well-organized bands or clusters of convection with high
rainfall rates.

PWs are in the 95th+ percentile of climatology, with well-defined
and poleward moisture contributions in the mid and upper-levels
emanating from Hurricane Polo that is crossing the Gulf of
California and preparing its second landfall into mainland Mexico.

The 06Z HREF/REFS guidance shows high 3-hour FFG exceedance
probabilities this morning as rainfall rates increase in
association with the uptick in convection. Some rainfall rates
will easily reach into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range, with potential
for some storm totals by late this morning of 2 to 4+ inches.
Areas of flash flooding will be likely as a result, and the
normally dry washes, burn scar locations and any box/slot canyon
areas will be particularly susceptible to impacts with potential
for enhanced runoff concerns. Some urban flooding impacts will
also be a concern at least locally.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7DeImm8_Z-G8pzQDAb97FbPwu9Ln3qx-QB6k2QKYfY8dglxmoWwfblqRniGyTvyQ5lwQom1KD01w0ZSGycMSfng96NA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35640997 35560807 34870707 33990681 32670703
31670775 31180912 31191139 31651284 32071344
32881343 33951279 34771206 35301124

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 14:52:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 291452
FFGMPD
NMZ000-291830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1397
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1051 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Much of NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291450Z - 291830Z

SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy rain will continue going
through midday with some areas of embedded stronger thunderstorm
activity that will produce high rainfall rates. The flash flooding
threat will be somewhat conditional over the next few hours, but
will increase sharply this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows areas of
moderate to heavy rain along with embedded stronger convective
elements moving across western and central NM. This is all
associated with the deeper layer moisture flux advancing off to
the northeast out ahead of a deep layer trough over the Southwest
U.S., and with an increasing moisture and energy contribution
coming from Hurricane Polo that is crossing the Gulf of California
and northwest Mexico.

The overall stronger axis of convection continues to be situated
farther west across central and southern AZ and into far western
NM where the stronger footprint of deeper layer ascent/forcing is
in place. However, over the next few hours, an uptick in forcing
should expand east across central NM which coupled with modest
instability (MUCAPE values locally near 500 J/kg) should foster
some increasing in the coverage of heavy rainfall along with
potentially some more discrete convective cells with high rainfall
rates.

PWs across the region are anomalously high with values locally
near or at record levels for the date. This includes values
locally as high as 1.25 to 1.5 inches, and especially over
south-central NM. Recent CIRA LVT data shows strong mid-level
(700/500 mb) moisture transport crossing northwest Mexico and
aiming for central and southern NM, and this will foster an
increase in rainfall efficiency with the evolution of stronger
convective elements over the next few hours. Despite modest
instability, there is a belt of stronger kinematic flow with
effective bulk shear reaching 30 to 40 kts across central to
southern NM, and this is helping to support some storm
organization.

Rainfall rates over the next few hours may reach upwards of 1 to
1.5 inches/hour and some localized storm totals through midday may
reach 2+ inches. At least for the next few hours, some areas of
flash flooding will be possible. However, expect a sharp increase
in the flash flooding threat more regionally this afternoon as
heavier rainfall rates arrive. Additional MPDs will be issued
accordingly through this afternoon and evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7S9AxTMRQ16nvk0iFdh8mpSeV_Q3MuFST-n5nIENrGBqp-hQNuPYSgDJstm84wY--3BSIXD2AA_HfJNJeRYu-_EF1Lw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36500639 36460475 36210412 35700368 34760364
33710420 33180469 32600550 32120661 32090710
32360721 33480684 34260687 34800702 35300749
35490802 35820871 36240816

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 17:32:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 291732
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-292330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1398
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern AZ...Much of NM...Far
Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 291730Z - 292330Z

SUMMARY...Widespread areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue going through the afternoon hours. High rainfall rates
coupled with wet antecedent conditions will support numerous areas
of flash flooding. Significant and life-threatening impacts will
be possible and especially for the more sensitive arroyos, burn
scar locations, and any box/slot canyon areas. Urban flash
flooding will be a concern as well.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W satellite imagery shows a strong
upper trough and associated closed low continuing to amplify and
pivot into the Southwest U.S. The height falls/energy associated
with this continues to interact with a deep, large scale plume of
tropical moisture lifting northeastward across northwest Mexico
and into adjacent areas of the Southwest with an emphasis on
southern and eastern AZ through all of NM and adjacent areas of
the High Plains. This is moisture strongly associated with former
Hurricane Polo.

Radar imagery confirms a rather widespread envelope of heavy
showers and thunderstorms impacting the region with some of the
heaviest rainfall impacting areas of southeast AZ and southwest NM
where there are some locally training bands of convection that
have set up.

Enhanced deep layer ascent/forcing associated with DPVA ahead of
the upper trough coupled with deeper layer moisture flux and
increasing instability will support an additional expansion of
convection off to the east over the next several hours. MUCAPE
values are as high as 500 to 1000+ J/kg, with PWs of 1.5 to 1.7
inches. Visible satellite images do show some solar insolation
over areas of southeast AZ and south-central to southeast NM, and
these areas should tend to have the greater instability profiles
going through the afternoon hours which will support high rainfall
rates capable of reaching 1 to 2+ inches/hour.

As former Hurricane Polo's moisture and energy approaches
southeast NM and areas of far western TX later this afternoon, a
notable uptick in convective organization is expected, and
multiple organized bands of strong convection are expected to
eventually impact these areas.

The latest hires CAMs including the 12Z HREF/REFS suite of
guidance suggests 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals being likely. These
rains on top of the earlier heavy rainfall and already
sensitive/wet environment are expected to drive numerous areas of
flash flooding. Significant and life-threatening flash flooding
impacts will be possible and especially for the more sensitive
arroyos, burn scar locations, and any box/slot canyon areas. Urban
flash flooding impacts will also be a concern.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Oy9dok90h2686YB6RWM22e_aJvpX_18Z-uxBeVkzsmefKuO-jTNkC6uSjIph-fXMEP8gTJzbb9pCdN17k_kIBcFQy4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...LUB...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35830557 35370368 34190255 32520276 31340457
30950692 30750977 31061145 32201186 33331150
34371045 35080920 35580747

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 19:04:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 291904
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1399
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern CA...Far Southern NV...Southern
UT...Northern and Central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291902Z - 300100Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the next several hours. Locally high rainfall rates
may result in some areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows a
very well-defined depiction of the deep layer closed low and
associated upper trough which is pivoting east into areas of
western AZ. Plenty of solar insolation with a gradually
destabilizing boundary layer is noted across much of northwest AZ
and to some extent up across far southern UT, far southern NV and
far eastern CA.

Some shower activity is seen across portions of these areas, but
with increasing instability and some differential heating
boundaries becoming better defined, there should be the gradual
development and expansion of convection over the next several
hours. MUCAPE values are locally as high as 1000 J/kg, and this
coupled with the deep layer cyclonic flow and orographics/upslope
flow over some of the higher terrain should help facilitate the
convective threat.

PWs are somewhat anomalous in close proximity to the closed low
and this along with the instability should support some convection
capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour. This
is supported by a consensus of the 12Z HREF/REFS suite of guidance.

Locally slow cell-motions around the closed low may help drive
some spotty rainfall totals of 2+ inches, with generally portions
of the Mogollon Rim at greatest risk of seeing these heavier
totals given the orographic enhancement over the terrain.

There will be at least some concern for areas of flash flooding
going through the afternoon and early evening hours from these
areas of heavier showers and thunderstorms that do materialize.
Any slot canyon, burn scar or sensitive dry wash location would be
at greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Cjdo-OFn7Hwsl2hglTU-HQiwTQEU1QqisYvY7xUh_bz2U8SdPRtyHfttlvz0b_ww6IZ1jiqYO7CteS6UUU5tlJnWtE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37891014 37550938 36540905 35280934 34611036
34061114 33801260 33841374 34091474 34541548
35171595 35851614 36481584 37041495 37301382
37361323 37431256 37741152

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 22:56:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 292255
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-300455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1400
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 292255Z - 300455Z

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected over
southeast New Mexico and much of West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle through this evening as energy from Polo remnants track
northeast from Mexico. High rainfall rates and repeating activity
will support numerous instances of flash flooding. Considerable
impacts are likely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2230Z...IR imagery and NLDN output show
warming cloud tops/weakening of the Polo remnants south of the NM
Bootheel. However, a strong low over the CA/AZ border and upper
ridge axis over South Texas continue to promote strong moisture
convergence both ahead of the Polo remnants as well as from the
western Gulf. Pronounced low level convergence of both these
streams is occurring over southeast NM with PW now around 1.7"
with spots over the Permian Basin expected to reach 2" this
evening.

Regional NEXRAD and NLDN depict scattered arc of thunderstorms
extending from just east of El Paso through Roswell and Amarillo
which is ahead of a cold front pushing south over central NM. This
is also ahead of an apparent MCV just approaching El Paso from the
west. Peak hourly estimates are generally 1.5". However, as the
activity shifts east from terrain and over the southern High
Plains/Permian Basin increased instability (around 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE) should promote increased rates and coverage. Deep layer
SWly flow will allow some repeating activity even as mesoscale
processes promote eastward/downwind propagation.

Recent HRRR/RRFS runs agree on widespread 1-2" across the
discussion area with corridors of 2-4", particularly over far
southeastern NM and the central TX Panhandle. Much of this area
has been dry over the past day, but these rates should cause
numerous instances of flash flooding. Considerable impacts are
likely in sensitive areas including terrain, burn scars, and urban
areas.

The energy from Polo is tracking quickly toward Far West Texas.
The activity should become rather progressive, so subsequent
discussions should be farther downstream. A separate discussion
will be written for the zone of heavy rain emerging from southeast
Arizona.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-cP1gWYxsAaaXvfEq17iuhTnLmVHtmW0zItRVkHXvVP6xJA4mlR8kf8Wczqgrh9fqOJgA-gY7esV36mKXpmAQx4bADM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36080102 36010019 34990065 32840183 32110226
30090316 29460449 31210606 32200641 33920543
34970406 35590273

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 29 23:33:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 292333
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-300530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1401
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
733 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 292331Z - 300530Z

SUMMARY...Repeating heavy thunderstorms will continue to shift
east from southeast Arizona through southwest New Mexico this
evening. Meanwhile, additional thunderstorms will continue to
develop immediately ahead of a slow moving upper low over central
Arizona. Scattered flash flooding with localized considerable
impacts can be expected over the area this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 0730Z...latest GOES imagery shows an upper low
over western Arizona with a pronounced dry conveyor belt wrapping
around and extending east through southern Arizona. A surface low
is over southeast Arizona which will continue to shift east and
cross southwest New Mexico this evening. Residual tropical
moisture streaming ahead of this low and attendant cold front will
continue to promote slow moving bands of thunderstorms.
Unfortunately heavy rain from these storms will cross areas
already impacted by heavy rain over the past day from the moisture
plume tracking north ahead of Polo.

Regional NEXRAD shows that the frontal activity has consolidated
into a single band over far southeast AZ with NLDN indicating a
recent downtick in lightning strikes. However, instability remains
with SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg ahead of the activity through the NM
Bootheel. There is lower instability farther east between the
Bootheel and El Paso, so there is hope for a bit of a downward
trend in activity later this evening over south-central NM.
Elsewhere, fresh thunderstorms have developed in the immediate
area ahead of the upper low, just east of Phoenix. Activity
associated with the upper low could continue to progress east and
impact the Tucson metro area again this evening per recent HRRR
and RRFS runs.

Moisture sufficient for heavy rain remains ahead of the upper low
with PW of 1 to 1.3" over southeast AZ, increasing to 1.5" over
south-central NM. The forcing, moisture, and instability should
allow activity to redevelop and lead to additional scattered
instances of flash flooding with localized considerable impacts
through 05Z.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7_0HIJnmVXQjKNkV3S9gGTd2plW3YwElKPMuOuc70cBz7JeeXSU00SaebAfxTdJL0haaS8ywwpo1SL7pQBUqfbv53eU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35070765 34860486 33180605 31530653 31280730
31141024 31251108 31891133 33201154 33831169
34511142 34541092 34351037 34480945 34790872

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 00:34:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 300034
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-300633-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1402
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
834 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300033Z - 300633Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms under an upper low will continue
to develop this evening and into the overnight. Localized flash
flooding for sensitive areas will continue to occur.

DISCUSSION...As of 0830Z...latest GOES imagery depicts an
occluding mid to upper level low drifting southeast over western
Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop in an arc on
the east/north/west sides of the low per regional NEXRAD and NLDN
data. Max hourly rainfall of 1" continues to be estimated from
KESX and KFSX. PW of 1" below the Mogollon Rim and 0.8" above in
remain with residual instability of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE.

Cyclonic motion to the cells around the closed low will continue
to aid localized maxima of 1.5" in areas of repeating activity.
Localized flash flooding should continue to occur over steep
terrain, burn scars, or sensitive dry washes this evening. The low
should continue to track east overnight, so a subsequent
discussion may be required for eastern Arizona.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!62XnVfsNV5fscFju49mTOcDyCURkGaa47bBo95VmUWgBmU7qmHmjrLCK8T9Mnzwv8SR1WGAotnDN7WebSR59vPmUsBo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36681293 36651138 36071072 34771091 33971162
33641227 33771346 34051485 35211489 35981437
36481362

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 02:41:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 300241
FFGMPD
TXZ000-300800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1403
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Areas affected...Big Bend of Texas through the western Hill
Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300239Z - 300800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms lifting out of Mexico will
repeat across portions of Texas near the Big Bend region. These
storms will contain rain rates exceeding 1"/hr at times which may
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this evening shows an area of
rapidly cooling cloud tops just south of the Texas Big Bend
region. This deepening convection is developing downstream of the
remnants of Polo which are estimated via satellite imagery to be
over the Mexican state of Chihuahua and approaching West Texas.
Impressive moisture convergence is occurring as streams from both
the Gulf and Pacific merge, which has helped to surge PWs to 1.7
to 2.0 inches (1.89" measured at Del Rio on the 00Z RAOB), well
above the 90th percentile for the date. This PW is aligning within
a pool of MUCAPE that has increased to 1500-200 J/kg, supporting
the ongoing convection. Although the regional radar mosaic shows
only weak echoes at this time, the GOES-E GREMLIN radar emulation
appears to be doing a good job matching the area of strongest
IR/lightning, and suggests impressive rainfall just over the
international border lifting northward.

Despite the weak signal in the current reflectivity, the CAMs
indicate that activity lifting towards the Stockton and Edwards
Plateaus will expand, intensify, and train into the overnight
hours. The spatial coverage of this rain may remain modest, but
any storms that develop within the robust thermodynamics will
likely contain heavy rain rates. Additionally, forcing for ascent
may increase in the next few hours as the remnants of Polo shift
northeast, driving 850mb winds to as high as 40 kts, or reaching
2x the mean flow. This could produce additional intensification
which is supported by both HREF and REFS hourly rainfall
probabilities reaching 20-30% for 1 inch as far east as the
western hill country during the next few hours.

Additionally, the approach of the remnants of Polo will drive a
surge in bulk shear values to 30-40 kts, helping to organize cells
into clusters, while at the same time causing Corfidi vectors to
veer more against the mean wind to support training. While neither
the HREF or REFS suggest widespread or considerable FFG exceedance probabilities (less than 15% chance), this may be a bit underdone,
so there appears to be at least an isolated flash flood risk
developing into the overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!960Jyhyw3DNBlD3stdXgvdWIsUCwHzsjVKAhVMPnp-ZHKB8yHfHMYcG5BnQb_ym3xgGGLE_khxczJ9-vMQ4dzUnamkA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31380170 30820059 29880032 29130044 28660119
28620207 28790311 28790328 29270400 30050403
30790359 31170276

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 04:51:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 300415
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1404
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1214 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...High Plains of New Mexico through the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 300413Z - 300930Z

Summary...A line of training showers and thunderstorms with
2-3"/hr rainfall rates will move across portions of Texas,
including the Panhandle, overnight. This may produce 2-4" of rain
with locally higher amounts, which falling atop saturated soils
will likely create additional flash flooding. Locally significant
impacts are possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight is impressive. An
expansive shield of heavy rainfall is occurring from just north of
Midland through Amarillo and into the OK Panhandle. Recent hourly
rainfall from MRMS has been as high as 1.25-1.5" in the stronger
convective cells, and this is moving across soils that are already
vulnerable from rainfall that has been as high 3-4" tonight,
especially across the TX Panhandle.

The environment is extremely conducive to heavy rainfall. The
remnants of Polo are lifting northward out of Chihuahua into West
Texas, with an impressive downstream PW plume arcing northward
into the Plains. Recent CIRA LPW measurements indicate PWs from
the surface all the way to 500mb are at or above the 99th
percentile, additionally reflected by deep column saturation in
the 00Z RAOB from AMA. This stream of PW on deep warm advection is
driving warm cloud depths to nearly 12,000 ft, allowing for
efficient warm rain processes to dominate. At the same time,
intensifying 850mb inflow from the SE ahead of the remnants of
Polo has reached above 40 kts according to regional VWPs, which is
not only resupplying impressive thermodynamics northward to
support this convection, but is also now about 2x the mean wind,
leading to additional ascent through convergence. Finally, small
MCVs noted within the reflectivity shield, are providing
additional ascent.

The CAMs are in good agreement that this shield of heavy rain will
continue to push NNE overnight, focusing along the convergent nose
of the 850mb inflow, with additional development advecting in from
the SW associated with the remnants of Polo. With the
thermodynamic environment remaining relatively unchanged (or
becoming even more favorable) this will support rainfall rates of
2-3"/hr as suggested by both REFS and HREF probabilities. These
rates are despite modest instability of 500-1000 J/kg, and
repeating rounds/training could produce 2-4" of rain with a 20-30%
chance of more than 5" from both the HREF and REFS.

Flash flooding is likely in many areas from this event overnight.
However, if the most significant training can occur atop
vulnerable soils from heavy rainfall already tonight, or over any
urban areas, locally significant impacts could result, reflected
by HREF and REFS 6hr/100yr RI exceedance that reach 30-60%.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6BpIkO9lhyfvkgQeXHCTOnLYxwoab7cQ9iiQOIhJg3LjhujsXRlBdxzkeYXowkEDbmlzYx8_e3mNRZ6VbWq5XQr5MCY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37650053 37239986 36659963 35789963 34660025
33540076 32730121 32120183 31810289 31940368
32510425 33650414 36480285 37390148

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 07:46:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 300746
FFGMPD
TXZ000-301230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1405
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...Big Bend of Texas into the Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300744Z - 301230Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms will lift N/NE into the Texas
Hill Country through morning. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr
are likely, which could produce isolated instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight depicts an
expanding cluster of thunderstorms draped north to south from the
Edwards Plateau into the Serranias del Burro. This convection is
developing downstream of a shortwave impulse noted in the GOES-E
WV imagery, and is intensifying as reflected by cooling cloud tops
in recent IR. Moisture across Texas is extremely anomalous, with
recent measurements via GPS above 2 inches along the Rio Grande
Valley supporting MRMS hourly rainfall that has exceeding 2" in a
narrow corridor just west of U.S 277 between Sonora and Del Rio.

The CAMs have struggled to resolve this ongoing activity, so
confidence is somewhat modest in the evolution through early
morning. However, the most recent HRRR and RRFS both suggest that
these clusters will maintain intensity, if not strengthen a bit
further, as they move steadily NNE on mean 0-6km winds of around
20 kts. The ingredients support this maintenance as well thanks to
850mb moist inflow from the Gulf reaching 30-40 kts southeast of
the remnants of Polo, driving local convergence and spreading
elevated PW/instability northwest into this complex of storms.
Although mean winds will remain elevated, additional development
upstream into Coahuila, Mexico is likely as Corfidi vectors become
increasingly anti-parallel to the mean wind across the Edwards
Plateau and into the Hill Country. This will allow for at least
short-term training from SSW to NNE, which through these 2+"/hr
rain rates could produce axes of 2-4" of rainfall.

There has been a lack of recent rainfall across this region as
evidenced by 7-day AHPS rainfall anomalies that are generally just
5-25% of normal leading to anomalously dry 0-40cm soil moisture.
This will likely inhibit some flash flood potential. However, the
thermodynamic environment will continue to be favorable for
intense rainfall rates which may (10-15% chance) still overwhelm
the soils leading to rapid runoff, to possibly produce flash
flooding in the naturally vulnerable terrain across this area.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-E-Ow_MlNzqlMOXhkGAAjQE9BH6uadCl19E9w5obIkUe63gslSfjkkMtn9iRT3x-o-cTESU1EBePd_9zfHLeiV2zjbk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31940010 31409884 30139845 29389864 28549922
28429934 28019976 27850012 28010064 28390113
28950161 29800191 30710150 31730095

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 08:55:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 300855
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-301400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1406
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...Far eastern New Mexico through the Texas
Panhandle and into southwest Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300900Z - 301400Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms will redevelop across eastern
New Mexico and lift northeast into the morning. Rainfall rates
within this convection will reach 1-2"/hr, leading to 1-3" of
additional rainfall. This may lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows clusters of
thunderstorms embedded within a broader shield of heavy stratiform
rain lifting across eastern New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, and into southern Kansas. Two areas of enhanced
reflectivity are noted: one associated with an MCV moving into SW
KS, with a more potent cluster directly beneath the remnant
circulation of Polo lifting out of SE NM. PWs across the region
are generally 1.7 to 2.1 inches, or above the 90th percentile for
the date, with CIRA products reflecting nearly uniform depth of
LPW above the 95th and 99th percentiles.

This exceptionally moist environment is a result of tropical
moisture associated with Polo being drawn northward downstream of
an impressive upper low (NAEFS 700-500mb heights below the 1st
percentile), which is combining with warm cloud depths around
12,000 ft to offset the relative lack of MUCAPE (<500 J/kg) to
promote efficient warm-rain collision processes. This is reflected
by MRMS measuring hourly rainfall above 1 inch despite modest
reflectivity and warming cloud tops.

850mb inflow from originating from the Gulf has surged to 35-45
kts across Texas in the vicinity of Polo's remnants, which is
resupplying thermodynamics northwestward to offset both the
nocturnal and convective overturning that has occurred overnight.
This inflow combined with increasing ascent through mid-level
divergence will likely result in additional showers and
thunderstorms moving across the area through morning. This is
supported by high-res CAMs and both HREF/REFS hourly rainfall
probabilities that remain above 25% for 1 inch.

Storm motions will remain quick on 0-6km mean winds of 25-30 kts,
but aligned Corfidi vectors combined with 25-35 kts of bulk shear
will promote some storm organization and short-duration training.
This could result in locally as much as 3" of rainfall, some of
which may fall atop extremely sensitive soils from overnight rain
that has been as much as 3-6" along I-40. Here, 3-hr FFG is as low
as 0.25", so any additional heavy rain will quickly lead to flash
flooding, and the greatest risk is along this corridor, including
the city of Amarillo. However, training of these efficient
rainfall rates could cause flash flooding anywhere across the area
through early morning.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_iaBzq9xyNHDo73M45ZsCMj0NnDXLGWmsAa5T1UNMbk0vLdsim0RojcB67Zt-byJ15LTVET-XlJKYVXFNRwv7aQa2sA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...GLD...LUB...MAF...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38310141 38230055 37960022 37329973 36629981
35810032 35070089 34200160 33480214 33040277
33040341 33790389 35380401 36740375 37750273

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 17:04:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 301704
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-302300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1407
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301703Z - 302300Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rainfall with embedded stronger
thunderstorm activity will advance off to the northeast going
through this afternoon. Some localized areas of cell-training
along with relatively moist/wet antecedent conditions will set the
stage for an increasing threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV suite shows ejecting mid-level
shortwave energy associated with former Hurricane Polo rapidly
crossing through west-central KS, along with a strong deep layer
fetch of moisture that is crossing the broader central Plains
region and aiming for the Midwest. This is all occurring ahead of
a stronger deep layer trough pivoting through the southern Rockies
and toward the immediate High Plains.

Already an expansive area of heavy stratiform rain is occurring
across central and western KS in association with strong warm air
advection ahead of a surface low while interacting with a
strengthening frontal zone. The latest RAP analysis shows an
increasingly focused axis of frontogenesis and related forcing
occurring in the 925/700 mb layer across west-central KS and this
coupled with strengthening divergence aloft ahead of the upstream
height falls should favor a sustainable axis of heavy rainfall
across especially western and northern KS over the next several
hours.

A focused corridor of low-level moisture transport and convergence
along the front coupled with an improving thermodynamic
environment with at least elevated areas of instability should
favor an uptick in rainfall rates. The latest 12Z HREF/REFS
guidance strongly supports this and suggests rainfall rates may
reach as high as 1.5+ inches/hour where the stronger convective
elements materialize along and adjacent to the front.

All of this focused moisture transport and deeper layer forcing
will expand off to the northeast and impact many areas of northern
KS and south-central to southeast NE in time. Some of these areas
have already seen heavy rainfall over the last 12 to 24 hours, and
locally the FFGs are rather low as a result. The latest HREF/REFS
consensus suggests as much as 2 to 4+ inches of rain through late
this afternoon which will be aided by some potential for some
localized cell-training of stronger convection.

These rains coupled with the relatively moist/wet antecedent
conditions will favor an increase in the threat for flash flooding
over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4FdLLvwIbA9JuP3_24GVpRLAb_KsY8xGckvqTSL9vMjCZDK2CQWgJ-kyPXA6S9456sHx1fAmr-pumx7NssCasfxMwI0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...OAX...OUN...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41449612 40919511 40199509 39479571 38769679
38099780 37329907 36969999 37150069 37900095
38580148 39270134 39980049 40789907 41219785

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 17:16:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 301716
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-302215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1408
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...Northern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301714Z - 302215Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop today under an
upper low over northern New Mexico. Rainfall rates could reach an
inch per hour and there is a repeating or training threat, so
widely scattered flash flooding is possible, mainly for sensitive
areas of terrain, burn scars, and cities.

DISCUSSION...As of 17Z...latest GOES imagery depicts an upper low
center over northwest NM with a broad dry conveyor belt wrapping
in from southern and eastern NM. A prolonged moist conveyor belt
wraps around the north side of the low over CO back over AZ and
into the low center. Areas of showers are over north-central NM
with some cyclonic motion around the upper low center. A cluster
of thunderstorms has developed on the southeast side of this area,
to the southeast of Santa Fe.

Sunshine in the dry belt over southern and eastern NM will be a
source of instability under the upper low. As has been the case
with this upper low farther west the past couple days, diurnally
driven thunderstorms should develop under the upper low and track
cyclonically. This raises the risk for repeating activity.
Instability is currently 500-1000 J/kg southeast of the low center
and should top 1000 J/kg through midday heating. Moisture is
limited, though a gradient in moisture is apparent over northern
NM to the CO border where PW is around 0.7". This is also where a
subtle surface trough is present from a low over the OK Panhandle.
The focus of further thunderstorm development should be near the
low center and north just into CO where there is sufficient
moisture and instability.

The heaviest activity should have rates of 0.5" with 1"/hr
generally limited to where cells repeat in the cyclonic motion.
Recent HRRR and RRFS runs on the risk for 1-2" from north-central
NM east to the TX Panhandle until 22Z. The upper low is drifting
east, so the thunderstorm threat area should expand east this
afternoon over the plains of northeast NM along the trough. Given
that northern NM has not seen as much rain as areas farther
south/east, the antecedent condition is not primed to aid flash
flooding. Therefore, flash flooding should remain isolated to
widely scattered and mainly in areas of steep terrain, burn scars,
and cities to 22Z. Activity may last into this evening,
particularly east, so a subsequent discussion is possible.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Ez73gX_QAOEE4RZanbc52Db3eExUv3AN3rNwpWhAv9zA2-Og4DfjreimHdIvSb0KM2h6FFSY-LW-LGO1DHUW-x7Ugk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37430641 36900360 35830316 34290431 34500753
35040885 36490883

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 19:41:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 301941
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010135-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1409
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...North Texas and Central Oklahoma into Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301935Z - 010135Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms develop over the southern Plains
this afternoon along a trough axis. Heavy rates and repeating
activity can be expected to locally overcome dry antecedent
conditions and result in isolated flash flooding to 01Z.
Additional activity is expected overnight.

DISCUSSION...As of 1930Z...an upper low is over New Mexico with a
lee side surface trough extending down the southern Plains from a
low over southwest KS. Abundant Gulf moisture is present in this
corridor with PW of 2.4" advecting north from North Texas on 30kt
Sly low level flow. Sufficient tall/skinny CAPE accompanies this
corridor and mostly small cells currently over North Texas (west
from Fort Worth) will continue to grow upscale and expand north
through central OK into southern KS through mid-afternoon.

Deep layer SSWly flow is parallel to the surface trough and should
allow repeating activity. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs agree on 2-4" QPF
maxima from North Texas to south Kansas to 01Z. Much of this area
has been rain free for more than a week with extensive drought
centered over OK. However, this abundant moisture and
repeating/training risk should allow rates to exceed 2"/hr and
cause isolated flash flooding especially in metro areas.

An organized line of heavy convection is expected to cross this
region overnight and make for a considerable flash flood threat,
so expect a subsequent discussion this evening.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5FJVHW82GfcDoDE0enITuhj5DuiEJCpUpXj1Lnxw775WPXlCpfvNP-By2euG2kz_TZgcxH36gMndxdImDVCBrYn9KAA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...ICT...OUN...SJT...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38619659 37199572 34339592 32459611 31299677
30979835 31809902 32659868 33109862 35479832
36519823 37579796

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 21:46:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 302146
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-010345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1410
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302145Z - 010345Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue to develop
downstream of an upper low over the southern High Plains through
this evening. Rain rates should continue to peak at an inch per
hour and there is a threat for training, so localized flash
flooding remains possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2145Z...latest GOES imagery and NLDN lightning
depict an upper low center persisting over west-central NM with a
cluster of thunderstorms downstream over northeast NM along a
surface trough axis. Northerly low level flow wrapping around a
surface low over northwest KS is bringing an axis of moisture over
southeast CO to northeast NM and the OK Panhandle. The
thunderstorms over northeast NM are aided by height falls from the
upper low that is slowly shifting east and instability (SBCAPE of
1500 J/kg) south of a differential heating boundary south of the
trough in southwest KS.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs agree that the existing activity should
continue tracking ENE along the differential heating boundary and
trough axis. 1"/hr max rainfall is likely to continue and would
approach FFG for much of the area that received up to 1.5" rain
over the past day. Flash flooding should generally be limited to
where the heaviest activity pivots/repeats which should be
isolated in nature through 0330Z. Continued lee side troughing
over KS should maintain rainfall through tonight over southeast
CO, so another discussion is possible.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4hDsnvjMPu3cV2y3BBqPSunDhKmvWcCcD-bjXeFUn5iAF2p-mKWI51CGIbbHRyVtByYhFv0Zb6laBr0HvGbV8xRsD2s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38890278 38670189 37340187 36340222 35040412
35100593 36250649 37260608 38240434

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 30 22:45:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 302244
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-010445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1411
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
644 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 302243Z - 010445Z

SUMMARY...Widespread heavy rain with expanding thunderstorm
activity will shift from north-central KS through eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa through this evening. Prolonged heavy rain along
a stationary front will lead to a stripe of 3-6" rainfall and
scattered flash flooding with 1-3" and isolated instances off to
the west and east away from the front.

DISCUSSION...As of 2230Z...GOES-E imagery depicts mid-level
shortwave energy over northern KS. Broad moderate to heavy rain
pushing into central Nebraska is north of a surface low over
west-central KS. A deep fetch of moisture is surging north of the
east of the low with an axis of 2"+ PW over eastern KS up into
southeast Nebraska. This moisture is converging on a stationary
front extending northeast from the low and should be a focus for
prolonged heavy rain this evening. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs both
agree on a swath of 3-6" arcing from the central KS/Neb border to
near/just north of Omaha and into western Iowa through 04Z.

NLDN data continues to indicate that lightning is limited to near
the sfc low center in KS. Instability is also streaming north with
1000+ J/kg across southern KS which the RAP has reaching southern
Neb after 00Z. Repeating convergence of thunderstorms on the
stationary front is the main threat for this evening and scattered
flash flooding is considered likely near this stationary front..

Wet antecedent conditions across the discussion area should favor
increased runoff. As of now this axis of heavy rain looks to
remain north/west of the heavy rain axis from earlier today where
a swath of up to 3.5" fell from northeast KS through northwest MO.
However, more discrete activity is expected over northeast KS into
central IA, so that vulnerable swath may see an additional 1-2".
Flash flooding is considered possible in the discussion area away
from the front.

The heavy rain threat area slowly shifts east overnight, so
subsequent discussions downstream are likely.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6zrDRX_gFVwpCGanxr5Qyt-VSsZicygWYTCUpnDSRtkYKgjRxenRKKp9mWbgRuZEgY7htpVFY1UT0SqW2ONRdsKQhCs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42399570 42379395 41619341 39639370 38569570
38959849 39559954 39470044 40040062 40729971
41709763

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 00:11:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 010011
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-010600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1412
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...West Texas into Okiahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010008Z - 010600Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms expand in coverage as they track
northeast along a trough axis over West Texas through North Texas
and into Oklahoma tonight. High rates and repeating activity can
be expected to overcome dry antecedent conditions and result in
scattered flash flooding with localized considerable impacts to
06Z. The activity is expected persist as it tracks east overnight.

DISCUSSION...As of 00Z...an upper low is over central New Mexico
with a lee side surface trough extending down the southern Plains
with a cold front over the southern High Plains from a low moving
into southern Nebraska. Abundant Gulf moisture continues to stream
north over the southern Plains with an axis of 2.3" PW up the I-35
corridor from central TX to central OK. Sufficient tall/skinny
CAPE (1500 J/kg SBCAPE) accompanies this moisture axis with
scattered storms currently over northwest Texas. The most
aggressive activity is supercellular immediately ahead of the cold
front which is currently pushing into the Rolling Plains and
Stockton Plateau.

SWly 40kt deep layer flow which is parallel to the cold front will
promote further expansion of this activity which should organize
as it tracks east this evening. Cell mergers and upwind
propagation will allow expanding coverage of 2-4" rainfall
corridors with potential for 6" in isolated areas through 06Z per
the 22Z HRRR.

The organized line of convection will eventually reach the areas
impacted by heavy rain this afternoon. Otherwise, much of this
area has been dry over the past week. Rates of 2"+/hr are likely
which would exceed most FFG over the discussion area. Given the
high moisture content, flash flooding is considered likely with
localized considerable impacts.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_JQUfaeKB1yUBHKmsXURB7lgRBiFDsd6OB7xQZMGy9miiLNUg6OH4UkSqnzae_u_Eisa_M_xQcxUEzgwYxuu5QWwxbQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35429923 35389794 34999682 34119657 32899666
31619758 30139950 29180062 29660198 30470254
32040173 34900085

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 03:55:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 010352
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-010930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1413
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1151 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010350Z - 010930Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving areas of heavy rain may result in flash
flooding over portions of eastern CO into western KS through 09Z.
Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and additional totals of 1 to
3 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...0320Z water vapor imagery showed a well-defined mid
to upper-level low over central NM with a northeastward extension
into eastern CO. Radar and lightning imagery showed slow moving
areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms from eastern CO into
western KS, although the coverage of lightning has decreased over
the past 3 hours as instability has waned over eastern CO. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 03Z showed MUCAPE of 100-500 J/kg over
eastern CO with 500-1000 J/kg in western KS. While instability was
weak, blended TPW imagery showed that precipitable water values
across the CO/KS border were 150 to 200 percent of normal among
relatively weak LFC-EL winds of about 10-20 kt (less than 10 kt
over parts of NM). In addition, the left-exit region of a 90-100
kt jet max was positioned over the southern CO/KS border,
enhancing ascent.

Smaller scale vorticity maxima were embedded within the northern
side of the broader mid to upper level low over NM, coincident
with enhanced reflectivity on radar imagery and locally heavy
rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in an hour at times over
southeastern CO. The main upper low over NM is expected to slowly
advance northeastward over the next 6 hours allowing for continued
pockets of heavy rain from eastern CO into western KS with
embedded thunder at times. Additional peak rainfall totals over
the next 6 hours of 1 to 3 inches are expected which may result in
areas of flash flooding, although much of that should fall in 3
hours or less time.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!48JaWCw7Bubrgap05T1VuY_Kk35KYwcUi9ftOKCKlqdQFQgCCGgkusUDAanDz61ZjczlmbH-9sRvv8cvpamVo0Jt-XU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39810205 39730138 39150081 37940119 36980235
37160334 37820376 38700367 39450298

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 05:05:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 010505
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-011000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1414
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
104 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...eastern NE into IA and the western WI/IL border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010500Z - 011000Z

SUMMARY...An axis of heavy rain will continue to produce areas of
flash flooding from eastern NE into IA and the western WI/IL
border. High hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches and additional
totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...A potent mid-level vorticity max was located over
eastern NE at 0430Z with movement toward the ENE, associated with
an MCS extending from western IA into southeastern NE. The system
has been responsible for areas of flash flooding from Lincoln to
Omaha, NE over the past few hours with observed and MRMS-derived
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches. Precipitable water values were
near 2 inches across the region and embedded within a strongly
divergent and diffluent flow pattern in the upper levels.

Training of heavy rain along a low level axis of convergence
oriented WSW to ENE, ahead of the vorticity max, will continue to
support high hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches over the next few
hours as the system advances into IA. Southwesterly low level flow
just ahead of the vorticity max, represented by 40-50 kt at 850
mb, will help to focus the low level axis of convergence, sourcing
from a region elevated instability between 500-1000 J/kg to the
southwest. Training of heavy rain within the efficient environment
will likely allow for a stripe of 3 to 5 inches (locally higher)
to impact locations from western IA to northeastern IA. High
rainfall rates will continue to push beyond the Mississippi River
into southwestern WI and far northwestern IL toward 10Z with a
lingering potential for high rain rates and flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6EG7-cGy_Ph7bOB0Fg8HIYoeSVnFpQ3SOwnMNBvDXZ04ptXydkwu0GBz_KSCHzlo30SbbGa2FfYycJqe1nuS73gzp4k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43699093 43598986 43298954 42618978 41869168
40699545 40669654 41179672 41699656 42539551
43189341

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 06:25:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 010625
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-011220-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1415
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...northern TX into OK and far southeastern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010622Z - 011220Z

SUMMARY...An axis of heavy rain is expected to result in areas of
flash flooding through 12Z from northern TX into OK and far
southeastern KS. Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches and storm
totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally up to 5 or 6 inches) are expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 06Z showed a forward
propagating line of thunderstorms stretching from north-central OK
into portions of northern TX, advancing toward the east at 20-25
kt. Preceding this line was another, albeit shorter, line segment
stretching from the Red River near I-35 to east-central OK near
Seminole. Embedded training within the leading line segment
produced MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches near the
Red River to the north of Gainesville, TX and 15-minute rainfall
over 1 inch at Burneyville, OK (via OK Mesonet), between 05-06Z.

The environment remained highly supportive of heavy rainfall with
PWs of 2.0 to 2.3 inches and 500 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE via the 06Z
SPC mesoanalysis along with wet bulb zero heights near 14 kft via
the 00Z OUN and FWD soundings. Thunderstorms were focused along a
low level convergence driven by 35-45 kt of low level flow at 850
mb and strongly divergent/diffluent flow aloft out ahead of an
eastward advancing closed low centered over northeastern NM.

A slow but steady eastward advancement is expected with the
western axis of thunderstorms while unidirectional SSW flow
supports embedded areas of training given mesovortices within the
line segment and short term alignment with the mean steering flow.
Similarly with the eastward/preceding line segment, areas of
training are expected as it moves northeast to east. Peak hourly
rainfall values of 2 to 3+ inches are expected along with
additional storm totals of 2 to 4 inches through 12Z, although
isolated higher totals may occur.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4NOtj96vkRrmxddbBo9l2n8KpPi7pHDKhLt6SRE5oec5rvvdzgAHbrJMaxaUxzfWbNh40_xclDmutBrz92sx61mfxxI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...OUN...SGF...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37529547 37499492 37019470 36009478 34789513
33249599 32639733 32899900 34619818 36429765
37179681 37309633

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 07:30:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 010729
FFGMPD
TXZ000-011325-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1416
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...middle Rio Grande Valley into north-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010727Z - 011325Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be likely across TX from
the middle Rio Grande into north-central TX. Peak hourly rainfall
of 2 to 3+ inches appears likely and isolated storm total maxima
over 5 inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 07Z showed a broken line of
thunderstorms extending from north-central to southwestern TX,
near where the Pecos River intersected the Rio Grande. Additional
scattered thunderstorms were located out ahead across the Hill
Country along with developing showers about 60-70 miles west of
San Antonio. These storms were occurring out ahead of a mid to
upper-level closed low/trough tracking east across the southern
High Plains with upper level jet-induced divergence and diffluence
out ahead across TX. The environment across central TX contained
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, PWs of 1.8 to 2.3 inches and sufficient
effective bulk shear for organization and mesocyclones via the 07Z
SPC mesoanalysis.

In the lower levels, 850 mb winds of 25-40 kt were observed via
area VAD wind plots, with a 5-15 kt increase over the past 3 hours
likely contributing to the increase in shower activity to the west
of San Antonio due to interaction with the Hill Country terrain. A
SW to NE oriented axis of ow level convergence was also noted on
the leading edge of the stronger 850 mb flow located east of a
cold front, coincident with the broken line of thunderstorms which
were aligned parallel to the mean steering flow (supportive of
training). While the low level axis of convergence is forecast to
slowly but steadily advance toward the east through 13Z, areas of
training along and ahead of this axis will support localized
hourly rainfall values of 2 to 3+ inches along with 15-minute
rainfall totals over 1 inch due to the environment being
supportive of efficient rainfall production. These high rates
falling atop areas of sensitive terrain within the Hill Country
may allow for locally considerable flash flood impacts. Recent
WoFS cycles since 05Z showed 90th percentile values for 6 hour
rainfall of 6-7 inches which can be a reasonable higher end
rainfall potential on a localized basis. The flash flood threat is
expected to near the I-35 corridor toward 13Z-14Z, but the
greatest potential for higher totals should remain to the west of
I-35 through this time frame.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9lQHpkcpjoZUK9-FCZFX0hFs4GuxjJ3fFQIxOJiKDkxkP9ljeZm4UBtjLJy60-sylfC7vvWLUO3dKFZ1fbW7AADWeGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32869923 32859691 32739638 31589708 29739815
28779934 28510050 29280114 29670210 30030228
30780175 31950051

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 09:37:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 010937
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-011520-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1417
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010934Z - 011520Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding may result from slow moving
areas of heavy rain across eastern CO into western KS through 15Z.
Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and additional totals of 1 to
3 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...09Z water vapor imagery from GOES East showed a mid
to upper-level low over centered near the western OK Panhandle
with slow but steady movement toward the east. A number of smaller
scale vorticity maxima were embedded within the broader mid-level
circulation, helping to concentrate a few localized areas of
heavier rainfall, producing MRMS-derived (and gauge confirmed)
hourly rainfall totals 0f 0.5 to 1.0 inches over the past couple
of hours. MUCAPE remained constrained to less than 500 J/kg over
southeastern CO but increased to over 1000 J/kg into west-central
KS via the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis.

09Z radar imagery identified some of the heaviest rainfall
intensities occurring along the western gradient of instability in
western KS, near and up to 60 miles south of Goodland, KS. This
area of heavy rain was located within a slowly pivoting
deformation zone to the northwest of a surface low in southwestern
KS, in the vicinity of an inverted trough extending northwest from
the low. Short term forecasts from the RAP show that only slow
movement of the surface low and deformation zone will occur as the
mid to upper-level low slowly nudges east through the remainder of
the morning. With this motion, areas of heavy rain will be slow to
translate away from western KS. However, a zone of low level
convergence is expected to become better defined over portions of
western to central KS after 12Z with the development of showers
and embedded thunderstorms expected along it.

Peak hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected to occur
with some of the stronger cores within slow moving areas of heavy
rain which are likely to approach 1-hr flash flood guidance across
eastern CO into western KS. However, the slow movement of heavy
rain cores is expected to support localized totals of 1 to 3
inches through 15Z which could fall in 3 hours or less time. Due
to these expectations, localized areas of flash flooding will be
possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8zx9TTLzNd0x7AxTZjKhCBMRlJsHgTIyzj9CvyhTG8eFi6jF4Lovl8RHCSbFmHrf0-32qeLXFwDjebPAKMinYZJChhk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39510078 39489987 39329913 38809900 38349995
37850075 37340142 37100236 37050306 37130393
37470411 37970376 38610287 39040228 39420150

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 12:01:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011201
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-011800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1418
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...TX Hill Country to the Red River Valley of the
South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011200Z - 011800Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms with very
high rainfall rates will continue through midday across portions
of the TX Hill Country up into the Red River Valley of the South.
Additional areas of flash flooding are expected, with locally
significant urban flooding impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with radar shows an extensive axis of cold-topped convection
associated with heavy showers and thunderstorms extending from the
TX Hill Country northeastward up through north-central TX and
adjacent areas of the Red River Valley. The convection continues
to be supported by an ejecting closed low and associated upper
trough ejecting gradually out across the central and southern
Plains.

The upper-level flow remains quite divergent aloft across the
region given the approach of stronger DPVA and related upper-jet
forcing. This will continue to favor at least semi-organized
clusters or bands of convection through midday as it interacts
with a very moist and relatively unstable southerly low-level jet
of 30 to 40+ kts.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are in place with PWs a solid 2
to 3 standard deviations above normal. In fact, the values are
generally near 2 inches across north-central TX and the Red River
Valley region, but are as high as 2.25+ inches down toward the TX
Hill Country and much of the broader Lower Rio Grande Valley.

OSPO ALPW data confirms a deep tropical sounding profile with
moisture extremely concentrated in the warm cloud-bearing 850/700
mb layer. This focused moisture, moderate instability and axis of
deeper layer ascent should continue to favor at least some
localized swath of 2 to 3 inch/hour rainfall rates as the overall
larger scale convective axis shifts slowly southeastward.

There is enough cell-training and storm organization to support
some additional rainfall amounts as high as 3 to 5+ inches going
through midday. The latest experimental WoFS guidance along with a
consensus of the 06Z HREF/REFS solutions supports this evolution.
However, it should be noted that recent runs of the WoFS appear
underdone with the short-term convective potential across the TX
Hill Country and adjacent areas of south-central TX.

Additional scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are
expected, and there may be locally significant urban flooding
impacts. This will especially be the case around the Dallas-Fort
Worth metropolitan area over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-LEufmjrUnedSaVqBJPyhI3eeI21DaM34iuBI_VwRmVjFVEfyI5VFCX6-633RlkXoDKqanhzvk3A_2lznIXB_sCx1Ss$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34809552 34419484 33439491 32059588 30579720
29219861 28649985 28850075 29400105 30520033
32229873 33569769 34569653

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 12:47:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011246
FFGMPD
FLZ000-011800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1419
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
845 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011245Z - 011800Z

SUMMARY...An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected this morning, and some localized cell-training may foster
an urban flash flood threat to the I-95 urban corridor from West
Palm Beach on down through Miami.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with radar and surface data shows a broken axis relatively
well-organized showers and thunderstorms crossing the FL Straits,
with the activity approaching southeast FL.

The convection is aligned with a corridor of stronger low-level
moisture convergence associated with an inverted surface trough,
but is also coinciding with a region of favorable upper-level jet divergence/outflow over the region that is downstream of mid-level
troughing farther west over the Gulf of America and nearby Yucatan
Peninsula.

MLCAPE values across southeast FL right now are conducive for
sustainable convection over the next few hours with values of 1500
to 2000 K/kg in place. A deeply tropical vertical column is in
place with PWs of 2.25 to 2.5 inches. This will support extreme
rainfall rate potential with any organized convective cells, with
some rates as high as 2 to 3+ inches/hour.

The early morning CAM guidance, especially led by the 06Z REFS
guidance, and also the WRF-ARW/ARW2 solutions from the 06Z HREF,
suggest potential for several inches of rain from convective
cell-training that sets up. The latest radar trends suggest this
will be a strong possibility, with some bands already noted over
the FL Straits.

Some 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals cannot be ruled out where these
cell-training bands set up near the I-95 corridor of southeast FL.
This will definitely foster an urban flash flood threat, and areas
from near West Palm Beach down through Miami should closely
monitor this over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5S4nwvtNzJ4H8Z9V_7UXuwmotrnHmxMrf0gJGyI_4s-I9il2VKwj9NlcjrD7D5f0826hyKRbfugHV5nzylvlCFkmO7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26928019 26807985 26367983 25847993 25438019
25378050 25558068 25838072 26218068 26768044

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 14:03:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011403
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-012000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1420
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Western/Central to Northeast
KS...Northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011402Z - 012000Z

SUMMARY...Expanding areas of locally slow-moving and training
showers and thunderstorms will driving a general increase in the
threat of flash flooding over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV satellite imagery shows the
gradually ejection of a deep layer trough and associated closed
low across the central and southern Plains. This will continue to
drive a significant threat for heavy rainfall across portions of
central High Plains, lower MO Valley and into the middle MS Valley
going into this afternoon.

Strong low to mid-level frontogenetical forcing and a pivoting
deformation zone will combine with strong low-level moisture
convergence north of the surface low center to maintain the axis
of heavy rainfall along with embedded convection across far
southeast CO and across sizable areas of western and central KS.

The latest RAP analysis shows MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000+ J/kg
across much of western and central KS, and this corridor in
particular will be a focus for some pockets of stronger and fairly
slow-moving convection over the next several hours which is
strongly supported by the latest hires CAM guidance.

Areas farther downstream across northeast KS through northern MO
will be in close proximity to a strong frontal zone, and this
boundary will continue to be a focus for convection given the nose
of a very moist 40+ kt southerly low-level jet and axis of PWs
reaching 1.75 to 2.0 inches. The combination of strong warm
advection and at least modest instability will facilitate locally
heavier rainfall rates across these areas.

The latest HRRR guidance and consensus of 06Z HREF/REFS solutions
suggest generally the heaviest rainfall totals impacting central
KS going through the early to mid-afternoon hours as the overall
deformation zone and axis of heavy rainfall tends to cyclonically
pivot on itself while favoring areas of persistence.

Some rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected with the
aforementioned convective elements, but the slow cell-motions and
localized cell-training may yield some additional 3 to 4+ inch
rainfall totals.

Wet antecedent conditions and the additional rainfall potential
over the next several hours will foster an increase in the threat
for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8KFOOhsi7hHh_YQxgJykQ40zgpmg6dciM1s912JQGkMPD2ByoYmYAbBu60iSzWpsfOrhyIUUbA7AUAX6ZrypzXllGto$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DVN...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...LSX...OAX...
PUB...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40599194 39999148 38999220 38539408 38209627
37849860 37390019 37170099 37100188 37430265
38020280 38500262 39080197 39530054 39799838
39919611

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 16:17:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011617
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1421
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...Far Southeast IA...Far Northeast
MO...West-Central to Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011615Z - 012215Z

SUMMARY...Localized swaths of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
tend to increase in coverage a bit more over the next few hours.
Areas of flash flooding with some concerns for urban impacts will
be possible going through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows bands of heavy
rainfall with embedded stronger convection becoming a little more
concentrated across far southeast IA, far northeast MO and
west-central to northern IL. This is focused along and just to the
east of a quasi-stationary front draped southwest to northeast
across the Midwest.

A combination of very deep moisture with tropical origins, modest
instability, and frontal convergence is expected to sustain the
concerns for heavy rainfall across the region over the next
several hours. Some uptick in boundary layer instability and the
arrival of weak mid-level vort energy from northern MO will tend
to foster some additional uptick in the coverage of heavy rainfall
and the rainfall rates with time.

MUCAPE values are as high as 500 J/kg, but the PWs are upwards of
1.75 to 2.0 inches, and there is also the presence of a southwest
low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts. This moisture transport and
overall axis of deeper layer ascent with the warm advection regime
will support some rainfall rates occasionally reaching 1 to 1.5
inches/hour. This will be aided by some very efficient warm rain
processes given the deeper tropical character of the vertical
column.

Some localized swaths of stronger convection and higher rainfall
rates may materialize over the next few hours, and this may yield
some pockets of additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals going
through at least mid-afternoon.

The FFG values across the region are relatively low, and therefore
these additional rains may result in some areas of flash flooding.
The more flood-prone urban areas will be at greatest risk for
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6MEdqYPiuqH7t2EQ3kYBn3dEEi5IbLSz6ssalt73YyE149CBs_M3qv6JVDxkwq2CedX4D51Ngw6h6P9UQKxFEOwcO_8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...LSX...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42598827 42478748 42028731 41588779 41028846
40348972 39819103 39959172 40429196 41009166
41629080 42268939

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 18:02:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011802
FFGMPD
TXZ000-020000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1422
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Northeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011800Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...An expansive axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
continues to slowly advance southeastward toward areas of
south-central to northeast TX. High rainfall rates will continue
to promote areas of flash flooding, and locally significant urban
flooding impacts will remain possible.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E IR satellite imagery still shows an
axis of cold convective tops associated with an expansive axis of
heavy showers and thunderstorms, with the activity gradually
propagating toward areas of south-central to northeast TX. All of
this continues to be supported by the closed low and associated
upper trough ejecting slowly out across the central and southern
Plains.

No major changes are noted synoptically compared to this morning
across the region as the upper-level flow remains divergent aloft
given the approach of stronger DPVA and related upper-jet
dynamics. This energy will continue to interact with a downstream
airmass that is very moist and unstable. MLCAPE values have risen
to 1500 to 2000 J/kg with the help of boundary layer heating, and
the PWs are on the order of 2.2 to 2.4 inches.

OSPO ALPW data continues to show significant tropical moisture
connections to northeast Mexico and the eastern tropical Pacific,
and this moisture transport focusing ahead of the upstream trough
will continue to drive convection that is extremely efficient with
high WCDs/WBZ heights. Given the instability and modest shear,
some of the more organized and stronger convective cores over the
next several hours will still be capable of producing rainfall
rates as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour.

Additional spotty areas of 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals will be
possible where some cell-training concerns persist going through
early this evening. The latest hires CAMs suggest the ongoing
activity may tend to break apart a bit with one focus over
south-central TX, and another one more toward northeast TX.
However, in general there is a regional threat of additional heavy
rainfall that will continue.

Additional areas of flash flooding are likely, and locally
significant urban flooding impacts remain possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8HYIEkLq6lf9Vo7PK7b3XSb4aqe-cvNKeqQ4P3F5dT2razIV6V6FV8z9ft_kDx5qCb-OsAFCRtNQZNox3sc83_sSFmw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33739551 33509487 32809455 31939456 30639526
29419612 28529706 27799821 27489927 27519981
28020020 28710013 29989891 31289769 32979660
33509625

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 19:46:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 011946
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1423
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...Kansas Into Oklahoma and Northern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011944Z - 020145Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and training thunderstorms over Kansas
continue to pivot into Oklahoma before expanding east over
northern Missouri through the rest of the afternoon. An additional
2-5 inches can be expected in southern Kansas into Oklahoma and
1-3" over northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Scattered flash
flooding will continue with coverage expanding over Missouri
through early evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery shows an upper
low centered near the TX/OK Panhandle border with a surface low
apparent in obs just downstream on the central KS/OK border. A
deep plume of Gulf-sourced moisture extending up the southern
Plains continues to drift east and is currently up the OK/AR
border, across MO and into western IL. An arm of this plume wraps
west over KS and around the low pressure system.

Convergence along a stationary front and presence of an
instability pool around 1000 J/kg over southern KS has promoted a
south shift in the heavier thunderstorm location. Rates have
recently been 3"/hr around Dodge City with scattered 1-2"/hr rates
ENE from there across the rest of KS. The western portion of the
activity should continue pivoting south into the instability and
into Oklahoma in the coming hours. Rates are currently lower over
MO due to a lack of instability, but an eastward shift and peak
diurnal heating should reinvigorate rates in northern MO rest of
the afternoon.

Latest HRRR/RRFS both feature a swath of additional 2-5" through
01Z across southern KS (into west-central OK) due to the eastward
shift in instability and pivoting activity along the frontal zone.
There is also consensus for an additional 1-3" over northeast KS
and northern MO. Southern KS has not seen much rain in the past
24hrs, but heavy rain two days ago should make the area still
somewhat vulnerable and scattered flash flooding, locally
considerable should continue. Lower rates, but wetter
preconditions also warrant a scattered flash flood threat as well
over the KC metro east over northern MO along the stationary front.

The low pressure system will continue shifting east, so subsequent
discussions should be for eastern KS and farther east across the
Midwest for the overnight hours.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9lyV-CV0E88lE41aEA-ZjfqslmXxgtT-fBt3qPBKrzE-HUKl7KeccLQ5ekgPl9zjoXqYeLAIGzfxtBQDbVDWuGVemAg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...
TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40619204 39799141 39249201 38739311 38159403
37089502 36189669 35949815 36029963 36210114
36910193 37710128 38719921 39279745 39829575
40099453

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 21:59:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 012159
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-020355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1424
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012157Z - 020355Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and some thunderstorms should increase in
coverage over central Illinois during the next few hours. These
should then extend into northern Indiana and east-central
Missouri. Localized flash flooding is possible through 03Z.

DISCUSSION...Areas of moderate to heavy rain extend along a
stationary front which is in a plume of Gulf-sourced moisture from
eastern Missouri to north-central IL. A few cells have formed in
central IL where afternoon instability increased a bit to around
500 J/kg SBCAPE. The elevated moisture, with PW around 2" over
central IL, will allow heavy rates to increase in coverage
especially over central IL into northern IN into this evening.

Deep layer SWly flow around 40kt will keep convective activity
progressive, but that flow is parallel to the boundary, so
repeating activity is expected. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate
a risk for 1-3" through 03Z from around St. Louis to north-central
IN and into southern Chicago suburbs. Much of this area has not
received much rain over the past week so flash flood guidance is
near normal. Flash flooding is considered possible and overnight
rainfall should trend farther south with the approaching cold
front.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!420B34HiiKSAIPrt0OLurR5Q2oH6feCaZQIK48-Bcvzjd8kqfxIN0UjQX_M9ePb8xBtGUMwLpVb16bmFgWnarNSubSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42048792 41908724 41678624 40958597 39528832
38519040 38529166 38679214 39819173 40459141
40899060 41209005 41558913

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 1 22:34:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 012234
FFGMPD
TXZ000-020428-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1425
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
633 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012228Z - 020428Z

SUMMARY...The southern extension of a prolific thunderstorm axis
will continue across South Texas this evening. Repeating
thunderstorms with peak rainfall rates to 2.5 inches will
eventually promote at least scattered flash flooding through 04Z.

DISCUSSION...Particularly heavy thunderstorms have developed along
a trough in an extreme moisture plume over South Texas. PW are
around 2.5", SBCAPE is 2000-4000 J/kg, and deep layer southerly
flow around 15kt is parallel to the trough axis. Much of South
Texas requires exceptional heavy rain to flash flood and this is
the case for it. Expect activity to continue to develop through
the evening before the area is worked over.

The threat area should remain inland from barrier islands as
progged by recent HRRR and RRFS runs which highlight a risk for
4-8" over land spots through 04Z. Activity has struggled to reach
Corpus Christi proper and should generally continue to from local
onshore flow. Western areas of the Lower Rio Grande Valley urban
area, generally west from McAllen, should see this exceptional
rainfall and see scattered flash flooding.

This event should wrap up around 05Z, so further discussions may
not be necessary.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4tT7PpBpGXT6kAvRnxCboUkBhe5bAvbZD0ZZYtR7q5NmEpAimketzOHfFeFvA6zuh5PLki4BnT55R6Zj1CfcagehJdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29269675 28579673 27329762 25879795 26249942
27329916 28289842 28819769

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 00:03:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020003
FFGMPD
TXZ000-020600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1426
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...East Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020001Z - 020600Z

SUMMARY...Swath of heavy thunderstorms persist over eastern Texas
rest of the evening before diminishing. Hourly rainfall to 2.5"
continue over similar areas which could lead to localized flash
flooding, including into western portions of the Houston metro
area.

DISCUSSION...Heavy thunderstorms continue to develop along a
surface trough over inland portions of eastern Texas. Tropical
moisture continues to surge through the area downstream of a
trough over the southern Plains. PW are around 2.4", there is an
instability gradient on the east side of the trough to around 2500
J/kg into the western Houston suburbs, and onshore flow continues
to converge on the trough, aiding forcing. New development
continues to drift east, where FFG is high - over 3"/hr.
Therefore, flash flooding should be limited to sensitive areas.

Recent RRFS runs are quicker to kill off activity while HRRR runs
keep robust convection for a few more hours. Scattered new growth
is apparent in IR satellite imagery, so a solution similar to
recent HRRRs with an additional 3-5" are probably decent. Flash
flooding is considered possible given how high the FFG is.

This event should quickly diminish around around 06Z, so
subsequent discussions may not be necessary.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Ons8_VPzVZ-kEJmwXVDZKQNw_WiGbNbajtdA5vaQzdHMjo6ia1lJJ5JtHf2Zckh6BFrcPc46j5NElKnn0jl-Y9ynAU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32309528 32149425 31109440 29919539 28929638
28859784 30059736 32039597

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 09:07:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 020907
FFGMPD
TXZ000-021400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1427
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Areas affected...southern to north-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020904Z - 021400Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible from the
middle TX coast into central to northern TX over the next 3-5
hours. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (with isolated values over
2 inches) is expected, but the coverage of any flash flooding that
develops is expected to remain localized.

DISCUSSION...Radar and infrared satellite imagery through 0840Z
showed a recent increase in the coverage of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across portions of southern and central to northern
TX. Much of the activity located closer to the coast was located
just on the cool side of an elongated outflow boundary that hugged
the lower and middle TX coast before turning more inland across
southeastern TX. Farther inland, loops of radar/satellite imagery
helped infer a low level circulation/vorticity max ~35 miles ENE
of San Antonio with a broken axis of showers near and just west of
I-35 from Austin to Dallas. Moisture across southern to eastern TX
was very high with 2.0 to 2.6 inch PW values via 08Z SPC
mesoanalysis data (highest to south), but instability was weak,
with MLCAPE values at or less than 500 J/kg across locations on
the cool side of the outflow boundary, although pockets of
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE were present across portions of inland
locations.

In the vicinity of the middle TX Coast, onshore low level winds of
10-20 kt will continue across the region through 12Z with
overrunning of the nearly stationary outflow boundary.
Southeasterly to southerly low level winds will be supportive of
occasional training and overall slow movement of rainfall axes.
Instability will be a limiting factor however, with the greatest
potential for flash flooding rainfall near the outflow boundary
where the higher instability is located.

Farther inland, the inferred vorticity max to the east of San
Antonio and an axis of low level convergence centered near 850 mb
will likely maintain scattered showers and occasional
thunderstorms near I-35. A gradual translation of localized heavy
rain toward the northwest is expected through 14Z following the
forecast movement of the convergence axis by the RAP. In addition,
the right-entrance region of a 60-80 kt jet max over northern TX
into OK will enhance broader scale divergence aloft across central
to northern TX.

Despite the high moisture, limited instability and weak low level
convective inhibition have been major limiting factors in the
development of higher rainfall rates thus far. However, the
continued advection of lower level moisture inland should support
some pockets of increased moisture in the lower levels and a
reduction in the magnitude of convective inhibition, at least in
localized spots across central TX through sunrise. This may yield
isolated bursts of higher intensity rainfall due to slow movement
from weak deeper layer steering flow of less than 10 kt.

Portions of south-central to northern TX received 3 to 6 inches of
rain over the past 24 hours which has left soils more susceptible
to runoff. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected to be most
common but the environment may support isolated hourly rainfall
values over 2 to 3 inches. These higher rates atop urban areas or
saturated to nearly saturated soils may result in isolated flash
flooding over the next several hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7H4ilDOv3C3cdRBj4kMCLZ_wp_PIeP5q_M3zdZ1odeHNfQm2jNWNLTsVP_ELWUdKzzOQNBjGdz-69ZlkD_3gFMdJB2Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33219664 33079617 32709588 32329571 31669566
30749555 30019508 29659509 29139548 28409611
28139631 27319740 27399799 27679837 28149866
28759889 29489904 30259917 31569897 32159852
32919770 33129713

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 14:01:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 021401
FFGMPD
TXZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1428
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to South-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021400Z - 021900Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and very efficient showers along with a few
thunderstorms will continue to foster a threat of additional flash
flooding going through early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a broken
axis of low to medium-topped convection in close proximity to a
stationary front draped generally north to south across
north-central to south-central TX.

Relatively focused low-level moisture convergence along with weak
shallow instability and weak low to mid-level vort energy riding
along the front are the primary drivers of the current activity.
Although there is also some weak right-entrance region upper jet
dynamics overhead that is likely providing at least some modest
deeper layer ascent. MUCAPE values are generally only around 500
J/kg, with somewhat greater values farther south toward the Lower
Rio Grande Valley and adjacent areas of south-central TX.

The PWs though are quite high with values of 2.0 to 2.25 inches,
and with the warm/saturated low to mid-levels of the column
associated with the shallow convection, a very high-level of
rainfall efficiency is in place.

This will continue to support areas of 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall
rates, with rather slow cell-motions. The ongoing areas of
convection should continue to remain relatively concentrated near
the stationary front at least going through early this afternoon,
and this may result in some additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals
locally.

This may drive some additional areas of flash flooding over the
next several hours as a result, and especially for the more
sensitive flood-prone urban areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4SIj_3YXnKHJFBoHrTsE2EGmigJOI6vtV1onNpyONUSE-HF15MvOjnnqVi2yQCRA7jR54pzsBQTcYYnvg4CaLMfT7Js$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32799751 32359657 30769692 28499802 27599857
27319913 27389988 28000023 28650000 29489964
30469923 31679897 32439836

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 2 19:03:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 021902
FFGMPD
TXZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1429
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021900Z - 030100Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving and very efficient showers and a few thunderstorms may tend to persist across areas of central TX
through early this evening. An isolated threat for flash flooding
will tend to continue given locally moist/wet antecedent
conditions from earlier rainfall.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible satellite imagery along with radar
data shows a broken axis of efficient shower activity along with
some occasional thunderstorms still impacting portions of central
TX, including eastern parts of the Hill Country and western
portions of the TX Triangle.

A quasi-stationary front remains draped across the region which is
allowing for low-level moisture convergence to focus along it
along with modest instability. MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000+ J/kg
are in place with PWs of 2.25+ inches. This along with some weak
low to mid-level vort energy transiting the front should continue
to foster scattered to locally broken areas of convection going
through early this evening.

The activity may continue to be relatively warm-topped and this
will favor very efficient processes for locally enhanced rainfall
rates given the concentration of moisture in the low to mid-levels
of the vertical column. Some rainfall rates will continue to be
capable of reaching well into the 1 to 2 inches/hour with these
additional pockets of convection.

Slow cell-motions will foster the potential for additional
localized 2 to 4 inch rainfal totals. Generally the latest hires
guidance emphasizes this being an isolated concern. The locally
moist/wet antecedent conditions from earlier rainfall will tend to
support some concern for some additional isolated areas of flash
flooding as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!55Oxamqbc414pYZPjfsjCs1OCL3QTxVJdy3-ywiqkjq-ArdhTcRpZsw5_q5NzymoeLJOicRqN7D03Y8EpMpbQ6w3Uh0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32279675 31549647 30229670 29249734 29029813
29389881 30199892 31099862 32209766

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 12:51:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031251
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031801-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1430
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 AM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031249Z - 031801Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms have
developed across north-central Texas this morning, and some
instances of flash flooding will be possible with rainfall rates
over 2 inches per hour with the most persistent convection.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars and GOES infrared satellite
imagery are indicating an increase in slow moving convection
mainly south of the Interstate 20 corridor, with a slow general
trend to the north. Some of the stronger cells have been rather
persistent over the past couple of hours, with recent hourly
rainfall estimates of at least 2 inches per hour with the storms
between Corsicana and Fairfield. These cells are also developing
in an environment with deep warm layer cloud depths and thus are
efficient rainfall producers. Although instability remains
somewhat of a limiting factor with mixed layer CAPE generally 500
J/kg or less based on recent SPC mesoanalysis, PWs are quite high
with values near 2 inches within the outlook area.

The latest CAM guidance suggests this trend should continue
through the late morning and into the midday hours as this heavy
rainfall makes its way toward the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the
Interstate 20 corridor. The latest HRRR seems to have a good
overall initialization when compared to ongoing radar trends, and
its 6-hourly QPF through 18Z shows the potential for 3 to 6 inch
rainfall totals between Dallas, Tyler, and Fairfield, and lighter
amounts elsehwere. Some instances of flash flooding will be
possible through 1 pm local time.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5aXYWwDQFqL1gNJcMbTmr-jKF3j3Il7ehaHlXONw1A_vxiy69E_dwQ-B4UH_ahkZypOpUMCYYH18b7tKPnwutDzchJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33949509 33949440 33769398 33369371 32549404
31749506 31489569 30959681 30869742 31019785
31219818 31689830 32169812 32749752 33199679
33629600

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 18:45:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031844
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-040000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1431
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern GA...Eastern SC...Eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031842Z - 040000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and storms continue to increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon and continuing into the
early evening hours. Some instances of flash flooding will be
possible through 8 pm local time with localized rainfall rates
approaching 3 inches per hour with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a steady
increase in convective coverage from eastern Georgia up through
the eastern Carolinas early this afternoon. GOES infrared
satellite imagery indicates the strongest updrafts are currently
over southeastern Georgia, and this will likely be the case later
this afternoon farther to the northeast across the outlook area.
These storms are developing in a very moist and moderately
unstable environment with PWs of 2.0 to 2.4 inches, and mixed
layer CAPE on the order of 750 to 1500 J/kg based on the latest
SPC mesoanalysis.

An examination of the latest CAM guidance indicates that the
convection over Georgia is likely underdone based on ongoing radar
trends, but otherwise the HRRR and RRFS seem to have a reasonable
depiction. These solutions generally have scattered QPF maxima of
3-5 inches, with much of this likely falling within a 2 hour time
period for any given location. Therefore, some instances of flash
flooding are possible.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4RhjHkw0KJsyt25l-qthsdJyazeDSE5lD6w7rzISjW-V8ZNxEuQD4xhmYKRIElXBSxA4teIl2yHAzw58cNw7e90uImg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...MHX...RAH...
TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35847803 35447706 34737708 33907783 33677871
32987928 32118063 31138132 30898175 30818233
30948304 31298341 31818367 32268366 32698335
32918297 33468161 34318085 35108039 35707923

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 19:18:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 031918
FFGMPD
TXZ000-032300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1432
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...North-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031916Z - 032300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to
affect portions of north-central early this afternoon, and some
instances of flash flooding will remain possible through 6 pm
local time.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating persistent
slow moving convection, mainly south of the Interstate 20 corridor
from Waco to Tyler, with episodes of repeated back-building cells
over the past several hours. Recent hourly rainfall estimates of
2-3 inches per hour have been observed with the storms between
Corsicana and Fairfield, with some rainfall totals near 6 inches
since this morning. These cells are also developing in an
environment with deep warm layer cloud depths and thus are
efficient rainfall producers, along with anomalous PWs near 2
inches and a well defined instability gradient oriented southwest
to northeast.

The latest CAM guidance suggests this trend should continue for
the next few hours, and should be tapering off towards 6 pm local
time. The latest HRRR seems to have a good overall initialization
when compared to ongoing radar trends, whereas the RRFS is
probably too far north with the expected QPF. An additional 1-3
inches of rainfall is likely.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6ijoWUQ6J0iI4ZG-_tFw9oR3eZW2ZgRke2L2TYerTQjTIlOemviDJXPRe-knInXHpCVeXI-ZGzl68yVqkDD_46VYpyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33089561 32739521 32139555 31149711 30979773
31109800 31409807 31819784 32189746 32639672

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 20:29:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032029
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-040227-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1433
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032027Z - 040227Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms have been showing increasing
rainfall efficiency as of late in and near southeast LA. Hourly
rain amounts to 3" are possible, which would be problematic in
urban areas.

Discussion...Recent radar and satellite trends show a tendency for
more rainfall efficiency as of late as thunderstorms show cooling
cloud tops even if the overall pattern is widely scattered.
Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5" per GPS data. Effective
bulk shear is just shy of 25 kts, with upper level west-southwest
flow countering east-southeast low-level flow to some degree. ML
CAPE is ~1500 J/kg. Divergence aloft could be aided both by
supergeostrophic flow over the top of an upper level ridge across
the northern Gulf and a weak shortwave transiting MS.

The mesoscale guidance has a heavy rain signal that shifts from
west to east over time within the MPD area, due to a combination
of the shortwave's movement eastward and recent RAP runs forming a
circulation at 850 hPa which approaches the Mouth of the MS River/
Breton and Chandeleur Sounds towards 06z. An instability
gradient/convective focus attempts to conform to the coastline as
convection inland exhausts instability ashore while onshore flow
keeps instability around for coastal areas. Hourly rain amounts
to 3" are possible, given the ingredients available. This would
be most problematic in urban areas. Any flash flooding is
expected to be isolated to widely scattered in coverage.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-q4eqjMInSk0-vs3AAGnlYvcrcbvEem1GR5fs4MXEuMfutdAia3qH_-Iq8tzoZldp5nmXh61YCJ5sjhkzf5ILcpTGto$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31048754 30888649 30368609 29608730 28988900
29029078 29499187 30619071 30948935

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 22:48:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032248
FFGMPD
TXZ000-040446-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1434
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...southern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032246Z - 040446Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain could lead to
hourly rain amounts to 3" and local totals to 5". Any flash
flooding issues would be widely scattered.

Discussion...A convective low with a central pressure of 1006 hPa
lies offshore of southern TX. A convergence zone in the wind
field lies to its northeast, with thunderstorm activity mostly
concentrated to its west just offshore Southern TX. Other
convection is located in the coastal plain from Victoria south-
southwestward. Precipitable water values are 2.3-2.6" per GPS
data. While effective bulk shear is under 25 kts, there have been
attempts at primitive convective banding. ML CAPE is 1500-3000
J/kg.

The mesoscale guidance shows skirmishes of heavy rainfall into
tonight across southern TX. Given the ingredients available,
hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible,
which would be most problematic in urban areas. Flash flooding
could be widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5r_oEgI7RpoUQXqv3BIiFvmc5O3o2XVqGzvZ3h1YxehC0qplPGfRyKE6sF6gUlbA5T0chx0IxLKaT4Bgs9ivAgbrDNM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29129720 28699593 28059666 27209719 25779706
25759802 26249880 27819866

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 23:44:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032344
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-040242-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1435
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...eastern FL/GA border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032342Z - 040242Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are possible for
another 2-3 hours. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible, which
would be problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...An pair of outflow collisions are evident on recent
radar imagery, with the Gulf Breeze pushing convection northeast,
while outflow from southeast GA convection acts as a northern
limit on new convective growth. Precipitable water values are
~2.5". ML CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is <25
kts. The convective area is within a region of 850 hPa confluence.

The 18z HREF/12z REFS guidance indicates that issues could persist
until 02-03z here before moving offshore into the western
subtropical Atlantic. Outflow boundary collisions are expected to
push heavy rainfall into Jacksonville and possibly Brunswick GA in
the near term. Given the parameters in place, hourly rain amounts
to 3" are possible, which would be a problem in and around urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_gofZyyHTp22E575MyWX_jYQup5zw66BbtIubqrKvl4ruyUEBaWVKzmwH5S5sG0D7g1Gduouow1GQHfeQWXesZ-lwho$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31318173 31218135 30558137 29628125 29568201
29808212 30058214 30988218

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 3 23:47:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 032346
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-040242-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1435...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Corrected for typo in first discussion line

Areas affected...eastern FL/GA border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032342Z - 040242Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are possible for
another 2-3 hours. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible, which
would be problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...A pair of outflow collisions is evident on recent
radar imagery, with the Gulf Breeze pushing convection northeast,
while outflow from southeast GA convection acts as a northern
limit on new convective growth. Precipitable water values are
~2.5". ML CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is <25
kts. The convective area is within a region of 850 hPa confluence.

The 18z HREF/12z REFS guidance indicates that issues could persist
until 02-03z here before moving offshore into the western
subtropical Atlantic. Outflow boundary collisions are expected to
push heavy rainfall into Jacksonville and possibly Brunswick GA in
the near term. Given the parameters in place, hourly rain amounts
to 3" are possible, which would be a problem in and around urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7MglJH8iFqen69fOg1Y2LdtaNFftlxPdrvi6xgJ7nOPtj3vj4MF8vkGOAe85Avh5YT8O78DmlNorbeciKVmYrdZK2wk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31318173 31218135 30558137 29628125 29568201
29808212 30058214 30988218

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 00:10:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040010
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-040608-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1436
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 PM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Areas affected...northeast GA & portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040008Z - 040608Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
expected into tonight. Hourly rain amounts to 3" remain possible,
which could cause isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A moist southerly low-level flow into a nearby front
combined with 25+ kts of effective bulk shear, precipitable water
values of 2-2.3", and ML CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg continues to aid
convective development across portions of the Carolinas. Aloft, a
shortwave moving through the Mid-Atlantic States is aiding
difluence. Convective tops have not been overly cold, but
rainfall amounts per 88D imagery has been efficient, occasionally
reaching 3" in an hour.

The 12z HREF/18z REFS along with the available ingredients
indicate that pockets of heavy rainfall could continue to yield 3"
in an hour into tonight across portions of northeast GA, southern
NC, and portions of SC. This degree of heavy rainfall would be
most problematic in urban areas. Any flash flooding could be
isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5l1XwZ_uLJr5QZDIcVCuW4INuqws0ANCGZKajpk4t2Gwwc5SB5JcVOEOa-810EcfxqV3g8BMsoriL97oW_yh16wN0XI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 36128184 34938073 35018000 35167938 35147751
34937582 34597622 34557663 34587688 34367727
33807786 33697854 33457875 32867950 33438004
33348160 33548304 34088399 35098339

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 04:17:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040416
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-040930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1437
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Gulf Coast from eastern LA to western FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040414Z - 040930Z

Summary...Efficient rainfall with hourly rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches (locally higher) can be expected along portions of the
central Gulf Coast through 09Z. Isolated/localized flash flooding
may occur as a result.

Discussion...GOES East infrared satellite and GLM imagery at 0345Z
showed a region of convection with cooling cloud tops and
occasional lightning from near the LA/MS/AL/western FL Peninsula
coasts to 100-150 miles south of the MS/AL coast. The region of
showers and thunderstorms was located near a low level trough axis
(focused within 850-700 mb layer) that extended WSW to ENE near or
just south of the central Gulf Coast. The environment sampled by
the 00Z LIX sounding and nearby GPS sensors indicated a highly
moist environment with 2.5 to 2.6 inches along the LA coast to
about 2.3 inches in the western FL Panhandle. MLCAPE was only
about 500 J/kg from the coast of LA to the FL Panhandle (00Z LIX
sounding and 03Z SPC mesoanalysis) with lower values to the north
and 500 to 1000+ J/kg to the south over the warm Gulf waters.

South to southeasterly steering flow and similarly oriented
925-850 mb layer winds along the Gulf Coast will favor repeating
and training rounds of heavy rain overnight near the slow moving
low level trough axis. Aiding ascent is a broad area of speed
divergence aloft across the central Gulf Coast given the presence
of a 60-90 kt 200 mb jet that increased with northward extent from
the Gulf Coast States toward the OH Valley. Multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist near the Gulf
Coast in the vicinity of the slow moving low level trough axis
with high short term rates. Efficient rainfall with wet bulb zero
heights in excess of 16 kft will support hourly rainfall of 2 to
3+ inches and 15-minute rates over 1 inch at times although heavy
rain cores may be transient over the next several hours. Flash
flooding may result, especially should there be overlap of high
rain rates with urban, low-lying and other areas of poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_jm393WOkF-msEzF5LDlOka3RqvXHWx8-Bb2HpwTsSvH-FmUEDHNG0ToEldPpPtci8LxxYyNsYKXolM1SoI7iCbGuX0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30968774 30808582 30068570 29828601 29698669
29648799 28958890 29018978 29769030 30369022
30798958 30918882

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 19:02:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1444
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Central Alabama and Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041900Z - 050100Z

Summary...Locally heavy rainfall this afternoon may lead to a few
instances of flash flooding, particularly for urban areas and
other poor drainage locations.

Discussion...Radar imagery this afternoon shows a developing line
of showers and embedded thunderstorms across portions of
east-central Mississippi eastward through central Alabama and into
central Georgia. This activity is developing along a stationary
boundary draped in the area. Along and south of the boundary, the
airmass is quite moist with PWs in excess of 2 inches while
instability is marginal but sufficient (1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE).

Storm motions are expected to be on the slower side this afternoon
with minimal strong forcing or pushing of the boundary. Some
repeating or training of the showers/storms is possible as well
with the gradual east/southeast drifting of the activity. Finally,
the storms will be rather efficient rain producers as warm cloud
depths are quite high and soundings show the favored tall/skinny
CAPE profiles.

Hi-res models and HREF/RRFS probabilities show the potential for
pockets of 1-2 inch totals through 00Z this evening with isolated
higher amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible. While some of this
rain will be welcome/beneficial, the efficiency of the rain may
lead to excessive runoff and cause isolated/localized flash
flooding, particularly for the urban areas or other poor draining
locations.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-azjcFki9-xu6Kv7pWVzPn24QaB_0bl-Xu5IAD-AIRi-c270gAYXIVLwc-5cWNGwIrlkVzgJW0vCl6NsuAdD08b0YlQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34288522 34058406 33828361 33358363 32918399
32758518 32758670 32558794 32598827 33198818
33368802 33848698

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 07:51:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 040751
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-041300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1439
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...central to coastal SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040748Z - 041300Z

SUMMARY...Localized slow moving and training of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across central to coastal SC
through the early morning hours. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
and totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher rates/totals possible)
will be possible through 13Z (9AM EDT).

DISCUSSION...Local radar and shortwave IR satellite imagery
identified an MCV over southeastern GA, about 45 miles southwest
of Savannah at 0730Z. Radar imagery also showed a recent increase
in shower activity over the Coastal Plain of SC, possibly linked
to an increase in the 925-850 mb flow as seen in recent short term
forecasts near the low level wave and possible outflow from
earlier showers/storms from the south/east.

The RAP has been relatively consistent with showing an increase of
low level convergence ahead of the MCV which is forecast to track northeastward, near the SC coast, through 13Z. The environment
across central to coastal SC contained high precipitable water
values of 2.2 to 2.4 inches and roughly 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE via
the 07Z SPC mesoanalysis. Mean steering flow was oriented from the
southwest at 10-15 kt and given the forecast increase in low level
winds across the Coastal Plain of SC, some slow movement/brief
training of heavy rain cores may occur over the next few hours.
Weak instability is a potential limiting factor for heavy rain
occurring but the high moisture environment may be enough to make
up for the lack of better instability. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches may result in storm totals of 2 to 4 inches through 13Z
(locally higher values possible) along with localized flash
flooding of urban areas or other locations of poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8JqUwt7f6RMlET-Lvk4SF16jN09E3VnBrbzlHqAHQghVP3wAzZktjajtnYH9DSdCx6eGQsV3u89ajUX7qBZ2AOX3Ncw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34187902 33917856 33657840 33377845 32877894
32497943 32168013 32198077 32728112 33158120
33518088 33908028 34177987

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 10:01:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041001
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-041420-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1440
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...central Gulf Coast into FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040959Z - 041420Z

Summary...A localized flash flood threat will continue for at
least another 3-5 hours across portions of the central Gulf Coast
into the western FL Panhandle. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches
(locally higher) should be expected.

Discussion...GOES East infrared satellite and GLM imagery at 0930Z
showed a low to mid-level vorticity max just west of Mobile Bay,
tracking toward the northeast. This feature was embedded along a
broader low to mid-level trough axis that was located along the
central Gulf Coast. The coldest cloud tops on infrared imagery
combined with GLM data showed an area of likely heavy rain just
offshore of the western FL Panhandle between Miramar Beach and
Saint Joseph Bay, advancing toward land.

Blended TPW imagery and GPS data showed that precipitable water
values remained high, between 2.3 and 2.5 inches along the Gulf
Coast from MS to the western FL Panhandle but SPC mesoanalysis
data from 09Z indicated appreciable instability remained limited
to the immediate coastal locations with ~500 J/kg. Inland of the
coast, MLCAPE values were 250 J/kg at the highest. Broad upper
level jet induced divergence will continue across the central Gulf
Coast through mid-morning which should provide increased ascent
over the region.

Scattered regions of heavy rainfall are expected to continue
advancing into the western FL Panhandle, ahead of and east the
vorticity max (aligned with the greatest low level moisture
transport) with rainfall intensity decreasing with northward
extent. Back to the west, while 0930Z cloud tops and available
radar imagery were not indicative of heavy rain across southern
MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, weak low level
convergence over the next few hours may allow for isolated
development of heavy showers/thunderstorms later this morning with
efficient rainfall production. Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches (locally higher possible) will remain a concern which could
result in isolated spots of flash flooding through at least 14Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!66Hrl6larpQAXewF03_iQdAy7BLFNyJC-Qtr7Drvjcwyj4lPxIbCLC2mNx9Fkylwhyv-DEaroZvXSGOSsDPaseqAj34$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30998837 30978749 30808582 29798534 29608568
29958656 30108744 30138813 30018890 30008921
30178945 30548946 30818905

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 14:16:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041416
FFGMPD
TXZ000-042014-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1441
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041414Z - 042014Z

Summary...Repeating showers and thunderstorms across South Texas
may lead to localized flash flooding through this afternoon.

Discussion...The latest analysis across the region shows a
stationary boundary draped right along the Texas coast. This
feature, combined with the very tropical airmass, is the main
driving factor for repeating showers and thunderstorms across
South Texas this morning.

The tropical airmass is characterized by precipitable water values
over 2 inches, locally over 2.5" (CFP 12Z sounding was 2.62").
Very deep warm cloud depths and the skinny CAPE profiles are all
indicative of a very efficient warm rain processes. A steady flux
of moisture transport into the area will keep the threat of
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours.

Latest hi-res guidance showers scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through at least 18Z followed by more scattered
activity between 18Z and 00Z. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches,
locally higher up to 4 to 5 inches, will be possible in the
outlook area over the next 6 hours.

The main risk of flash flooding will be for any urban location and
poor drainage areas.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7eWZpMpJ4oRsdlYoi1JGkJu1dMXqmuHCm7QyJ1AB69hSVKlRkZ8-lyzu_9W_S_6CZycZWAidnqaGQC1au6VjZ-TT0cs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27229766 27189725 27139728 26559725 26349702
25949710 25599721 25949771 26319769 26959772

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 15:50:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041550
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-042147-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1442
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041547Z - 042147Z

Summary...Very efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms
along the central Gulf coast will bring a risk of flash flooding
through this afternoon.

Discussion...Very moist air in place across the region today
interacting with a weak surface boundary will promote the
continued development of slower moving showers and thunderstorms
along the central Gulf coast through this afternoon.

As of 16Z, available radar imagery shows a shield of widespread
showers drifting east/northeast from southeast Louisiana eastward
into the western Florida Panhandle. This activity lies in the
vicinity of a surface trough which is aiding the overall forcing
and lift in the region. A mesoanalysis showed precipitable water
values well in excess of 2 inches, locally as high as 2.5 inches
(2.47" 12Z LIX sounding).

Most of the hi-res guidance including the HRRR shows a continued
drift of the activity through the afternoon hours, with a greater
concentration of more widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and
perhaps extending eastward through southern Alabama. Given the
very moist airmass (deep warm cloud depths and tall/thin CAPE
profiles), the activity will be very efficient rain producers.
This is likely to result in pockets of localized higher rainfall
totals, potentially amounts of 2 to 4 inches through this
afternoon. The main limiting factor to more extreme totals is the
lack of deeper instability as the atmosphere has been worked over
already this morning.

The main risk of flash flooding will be urban areas, poor drainage
locations, and other low-lying sensitive locations.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8EwcdDdtcfrOJxWVK5k2hUS__PvIYY7dpQM0ggyIe7Ho4mrGYId89p8GHvjVnpVDwmFw8DgRw97uG6AcV6xzao3-Q_w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31118691 31058570 30718491 30498476 30128464
29728487 29678550 30068632 30238724 30178770
29808856 29408895 29018945 29359034 30259045
30798922 31058800

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 18:21:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 041821
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-050018-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1443
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Georgia...Northeast Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041818Z - 050018Z

Summary...Slow moving, efficient rain producing showers and
thunderstorms may lead to localized flash flooding this afternoon
across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.

Discussion...As of early afternoon, the latest radar imagery
across the region showed increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across northeast Florida into southeast coastal
Georgia. This activity is being fueled by the very moist airmass
in place, characterized by precipitable water values well in
excess of 2 inches, and general proximity to a stationary boundary
draped west to east across the interior Southeast to coastal South
Carolina. Earlier breaks in the cloud pushed the surface-based
CAPE values above 2000 J/kg with the highest amounts (2500+ J/kg)
closer to the coast.

The expectation is that the activity will continue drifting
east/northeast while also increase in coverage during the peak
heating / instability of the day. Hi-res models show scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms filling in the outlook area
with relatively slow storm motions. Given the moist airmass and
very warm cloud depths in place, any shower or storm will be quite
efficient rain producers, resulting in hourly rain totals between
1 and 2 inches in spots, with at least a low end chance of hourly
totals greater than 2 inches (most likely right along the coast
where the greater instability lies).

This type of rainfall in a short period can result in localized
flash flooding, particularly for urban areas, poor drainage spots,
or other low-lying vulnerable locations.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Ti51XK3V1cGxQ5G7mpQld9iloyjpHU3riYPQzqLJi5m-KWU2H9Z4qh8KNxLTK1T1-Ak89b-xm4Hvi5sUZzZ8xLOAFU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32338149 32228094 32008082 31718080 31328119
29998130 30078213 30698262 31268269 31908294
32278222

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 20:03:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042002
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-050201-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1445
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042001Z - 050201Z

Summary...A risk of flash flooding continues through this evening
across the central Gulf Coast due to slow moving thunderstorms.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely with
localized higher amounts up to 6 inches possible.

Discussion...Widespread showers and thunderstorms drifting east
along the central Gulf Coast this afternoon will continue to pose
a flash flood risk into this evening. Available radar imagery as
of 20Z shows the most steady and intense rain showers and storms
across southern MS moving into southern Alabama and far western
Florida Panhandle. This activity is tied to a weak mid-level wave
moving eastward with a surface trough noted in the region as well
from the 18Z analysis.

The environment remains very supportive for intense rain rates and
localized higher rain totals. With PWs well above 2 inches,
locally 2.5"+, warm cloud depths, and tall/skinny CAPE profiles -
the activity will be quite efficient rain producers. Additionally,
a narrow axis of SBCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg exists right along the
coast, particularly southern MS and southern AL, which will
further aid in the higher rain rates.

Guidance is keying in on the highest rain totals over the next 4-6
hours to be across southern Alabama into far western Florida
Panhandle where isolated amounts between 3-6" are possible (HREF
neighborhood probabilities for exceeding 5" are between 15-25
percent along the coast).

As a result, instances of flash flooding will be likely through
this evening, particularly for the urban areas, poor drainage
spots, and other low-lying vulnerable locations.

Taylor

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_U4qGE0fA079nRONfg3fQd2uWK4Jj3jz69EPUbzaPza7ho3vJlMhkZcyOHgEfo1tPvJW4XdTvLN4Ey9cGeS972P6d0Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31368785 31338718 30998637 30238654 29918714
29848809 29798872 29588926 29838959 30278964
30768932 31228847

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 21:32:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042132
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-050130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1446
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...Southwest MS & Southeast LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042130Z - 050130Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could
continue for another 3-4 hours. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to percolate near
a front stretching across the region. Precipitable water values
are 2.3-2.6" per GPS data. Effective bulk shear is 25 kts. ML
CAPE is 1000-1500 J/kg. Difluence aloft is being caused by a
strong upper level shortwave near the ArkLaTex. Low-level
east-northeasterlies appear to be occasionally balancing the upper
level west-southwesterly flow, which is leading to a bit of
rainfall efficiency.

The 12z REFS/18z HREF have somewhat different ideas on how long
the convection will hold on, with the REFS showing an earlier time
of dissipation than the HREF. At the moment, the HREF appears to
have a slightly better idea on placement -- though both appear too
far northwest -- so used its horizon. Over the next 3-4 hours,
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue to show
brief backbuilding/training across the region, which could
continue to lead to hourly rain amounts to 3". There should be
some tendency for the convective focus/front to edge southeast
with time, which potentially keeps a flash flood risk for New
Orleans. This heavy rainfall would be most problematic in urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_XGL3ljNRp2IC0XHhmN6uCVt-sS54Cel5Ks8222BL1XlnFBXFbSIEsvHEu1Z88Fd0W0tgRpz_8OZiLFCcsKXiqjEm2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31308992 31178957 30268965 29469021 29219111
29829199 30609122

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 4 21:51:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 042151
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-050250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1447
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...western AL & south-central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042150Z - 050250Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have
developed across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3" could lead
to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have developed on either
side of a front stretching across south-central MS. Difluence
aloft is being aided by shortwaves near the IL/IN border and
across the ArkLaTex. Precipitable water values of 2.3-2.6" exist
here per GPS data. Effective bulk shear is close to 25 kts. ML
CAPE is ~1000 J/kg. Low-level east-northeast flow is being
countered by west-southwest flow aloft, which is aiding rainfall
efficiency.

The 12z REFS/18z HREF indicate that heavy rainfall could continue
through 03z, which appears to be due to a decline in regional
ML/MUCAPE and possibly some CIN development after sunset. With
the front edging southeast with time, there should be a tendency
for the convection to follow suit. The ingredients available
support the idea of hourly rain amounts to 3", which would be most
problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4hlO5nes7S94lLfOlFEm0_tkbhR1fDwZlZMa5G9WLPntjTc_j9xvtQVWWsOHcd4rzofszhHws4HvT7fDGM1hu4Ss3es$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32538786 31528798 30978973 31209053 31929066
32258933

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 00:09:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050009
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-050607-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1448
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...eastern GA & southern SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050007Z - 050607Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are capable of
producing 3" in an hour. Flash flooding is possible, particularly
in urban areas.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from
Millens GA to Charleston SC. There are located within the warm
advection pattern ahead of a frontal wave in a zone of 850 hPa
confluence. An upper low in the Bahamas and upper level troughing
in the Great Lakes are helping difluence aloft. Precipitable
water values of 2.25" exist here per GPS data and RAP forecast
fields. Effective bulk shear is under 25 kts. ML CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg exists here.

The 12z REFS/18z HREF guidance indicate that heavy rain issues
could persist at late as 06z in this region. Given the
ingredients at hand, hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8_FpfD-qBO-NiK2SShu8KMzOjTNhTsDOXSwGFGUP4MaIZemzCKwOK-sMe0DB7zHJjESXEZLR27-KoLW9CowC6oG9CzA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33077929 32587986 31728099 32368281 32988254

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 02:53:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050253
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1449
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1052 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...southern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050251Z - 050700Z

Summary...Training and repeating rounds of showers/thunderstorms
may result in isolated flash flooding across far southern TX over
the next 2-4 hours. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will be
possible.

Discussion...Radar imagery from KBRO showed a NNE to SSW oriented
axis of showers and embedded thunderstorms extending from ~25
miles east of Padre Island into and across the Lower Laguna Madre
into eastern Willacy and Cameron counties. This axis appeared to
be aligned with a zone of lower level convergence that was located
near 700 mb. Mean steering flow as aligned with this axis,
allowing for repeating and brief training of heavy rain with
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches from along the coast
to offshore.

The environment across southern TX contained PWs of 2.3 to 2.5
inches and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (via 00Z BRO and CRP
soundings). SPC mesoanalysis data from 02Z showed a tight gradient
in CAPE along the coast with lower values to the west and higher
values into the western Gulf.

The future movement and intensity of the low level convergence
axis is uncertain but recent RAP forecasts show the axis
translating slowly south over time. Whether this happens or not is
unclear at this time, but current short term satellite/radar
trends suggest at least a 1-2 hour potential for training of heavy
rain into portions of southern TX. Showers and thunderstorms will
likely be dominated by warm rain processes, resulting in the
potential for rapid rainfall accumulation with hourly rainfall
totals of 2 to 3+ inches. Overlap of heavy rain with urban and
other poorly draining locations may result in flash flooding
through 07Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6UmGFF2NGR8YuULUMI8WamqKzNxx-8QYRdsW822QYpnmKTJqeVHJo6wxen4euNFVI8CawNhxd_Xz25fpZznZlc0gtBk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27379752 27379729 27249715 26949711 26439698
26029693 25779697 25579719 25689756 25889796
26389796 27109772

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 05:32:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050531
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-050900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1450
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AL into southwestern GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050528Z - 050900Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving areas of heavy rain may result in localized
areas of flash flooding from southeastern AL into southwestern GA
through 09Z. Hourly rainfall values of 1 to 2 inches (locally
higher possible) are expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KMXX showed a slow moving cluster
of showers producing heavy rain over southeastern AL at 05Z,
centered roughly 30-50 miles north of Dothan. The cluster was
largely warm-topped with 10.3 micron imagery showing -40 to -50 C
within the coldest cloud tops in the immediate area, containing a
history of hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches, but
occasionally exhibiting higher hourly values near 3 inches via
MRMS over Barbour County. The higher rates were embedded within an
axis of anomalous precipitable water represented by 2.1 to 2.3
inches via the 05Z SPC mesoanalysis. The area of heavy rain was
focused just ahead of a low to mid-level vorticity max observed on
shortwave IR imagery and RAP analyses, over southeastern AL.
Locally enhanced low level flow just ahead of the vorticity max
was focusing added convergence along a WSW to ESE boundary that
extended from southern AL into south-central GA.

As te low to mid-level vorticity max edges east over the next
couple of hours, the relatively stronger southerly low level flow
over southeastern AL should shift into southwestern GA, with slow
moving areas of heavy rain following suit over the next 1-2 hours.
Continued hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) is
expected, although waning instability is forecast by the RAP over
the next 4 hours with slightly drier air moving in from the north.
Localized areas of flash flooding will be possible from parts of
southeastern AL into southwestern GA through 09Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_vp_V1azCNO-BBkDHJLqorkKF3-666P3RmCGD6F_vzDXORidoBfmeSJqT05mWII1rSBtzfdx8ATZIt90jNKinIUgDUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32458459 32398358 32238327 31788323 31438414
31158571 31228630 31828607 32178580 32368526

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 07:16:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050715
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051310-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1451
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...far southern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050713Z - 051310Z

Summary...Occasional training and repeating rounds of
showers/thunderstorms are expected to maintain a localized flash
flood threat over far southern TX over the next 3-6 hours. Peak
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (isolated 3+) will be possible.

Discussion...Area radar imagery from 0645Z showed a broken axis of
showers and thunderstorms extending from offshore of the middle TX
coast into Willacy and Cameron counties. The storms were located
along an elevated axis (~925 mb) of convergence that was largely
continuous from the western Gulf into far southern TX. Over the
past 2-4 hours, radar imagery showed showers and thunderstorms
tracking southwestward from the western Gulf across Padre Island
into far southern TX, with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches at times. The higher rates have struggled to move west of
roughly 15 miles inland from the lower Laguna Madre due to a lack
of instability to the west. The SPC mesoanalysis from 06Z showed
that MLCAPE did not look much different than 00Z, with an
instability gradient along the far southern coast of TX with less
than 500 J/kg over western Willacy and Cameron counties and 1500+
J/kg just east of South Padre Island.

Little change to the overall pattern is expected through 13Z with
the convergence axis allowing for occasional bursts of
shower/thunderstorm activity, which should track southwestward,
overlapping some of the same locations that have been experiencing
heavy rain. While repeating rounds of heavy rain have occurred
over the past few hours, there remains some potential for very
high hourly rainfall totals (2 to 3+ inches) should cells align
with the mean steering flow from NE to SW, supporting training.

Multi-sensor MRMS data from 06Z indicated 24 hour rainfall totals
of 4 to 6+ inches across eastern Willacy and Cameron counties.
These same locations are expected to receive an additional 2 to 4
inches (locally higher) over the next 6 hours, with potential for
overlap into the Harlingen to Brownsville corridor. Localized
flash flooding will remain possible through 13Z with a particular
focus across urban or other poorly draining areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8tfHi2ACHm0Sg2AgfXWYq_QikVSDAys_6w5hJ_OIxY0QkEidAi5ruzbUtVBDCwx5BkFPUFWYTZx5sCu1l9jDDelo3rA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26799721 26579713 26109697 25879693 25689737
25719756 25919775 26069808 26609792 26769753

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 09:23:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 050922
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-051415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1452
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
521 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AL, southwestern GA and the FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050920Z - 051415Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will continue to be possible
across portions of southeastern AL into southwestern GA and
portions of the FL Panhandle through 14Z. Peak hourly rainfall of
2 to 3+ inches will be possible at times, but the coverage of
these higher rates should remain limited.

DISCUSSION...GOES East infrared satellite and GLM imagery has
shown a persistent area of cold cloud tops with occasional
lightning extending southward from the coast of the FL Panhandle
into the open waters of the Gulf over at least the past 6 hours.
Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and rainfall totals of 2-4
inches (locally higher rates/totals) have been reported across
Escambia to Walton counties over the past 6 hours ending 09Z,
mainly south of I-10. Farther north, a combination of satellite
and radar imagery showed a slow moving area of heavy rain
extending from southeastern AL into southwestern GA, containing
MRMS-derived 6-hr totals of 3 to 6+ inches and peak hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches. The lack of lightning and colder cloud
tops across southeastern AL into the western FL Panhandle is
attributed to a dominance of warm rain processes within a very
moist environment containing PWs of 2.1 to 2.4 inches. Instability
however, was fairly limited with the 08Z SPC mesoanalysis showing
500 J/kg of MLCAPE along the immediate Gulf Coast from AL to the
FL Panhandle, with values dropping off into the 100-500 J/kg range
for inland locations of the FL Panhandle into southern AL/GA.

The areas of heavy rain were located near and ahead of a 700 mb
shear axis that extended from the southern SC/GA border to the LA
coast, with embedded vorticity maxima along the axis. 925-850 mb
flow was oriented from the south at 10-20 kt (RAP estimated) from
just south of the western FL Panhandle into southeastern AL and
southwestern GA, with isentropic ascent from the warm Gulf waters
(mid 80s SSTs) to inland locations (low to mid 70s surface
temperatures). In addition, a well-defined low level convergence
axis was helping to focus higher rain rates from southeastern AL
into southwestern GA. Aloft, lift was being augmented within the
right-entrance region of an upper level jet max oriented WSW to
ENE across northern MS/AL.

Across AL into GA, RAP forecasts show veering of the low level
flow through 12Z which should allow the low level convergence axis
to weaken along with some decrease in the already weak
instability. However, farther south across the western FL
Panhandle, southerly onshore flow of 10-20 kt is forecast to
continue over a good portion of the FL Panhandle for several more
hours which should continue to support periods of heavy rain with
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, but possibly with hourly values as
high as 2 to 3+ inches. Both coastal and inland locations will
continue the threat for localized flash flooding over the next 3-5
hours, with additional rainfall totals over 4 inches on an
isolated basis possible through 14Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Ej8MZ96BpBWyd_jEJvSrT7tcL1v3nwg_xYgczpH65uCzsNGL00LuedeipwZKkTd6gk_WZSR9sjE5P6aKaZ2Xi_Hais$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32278379 32248325 32118299 31898286 31698275
31318285 30828333 30378362 30018388 29668453
29508534 29958602 30138649 30148694 30528710
30818682 31238655 31478633 31778591 31978550
32068513 32148470

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 12:49:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051249
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1453
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...Extreme Southern Tip of South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051250Z - 051800Z

SUMMARY...Extremely narrow band of repeating/training showers with
embedded stronger thunderstorms capable of quick 2"/hr.
Possibility of additional 2-4" mainly along/just off coast.

DISCUSSION...Persistent tropical band of showers and occasional
embedded deeper convective cores remains in close proximity to the
far southern tip of Texas with little variation expected over the
early morning period. Aloft, a stronger tropical wave is
progressing through the Bay of Campeche into the Eastern Mexican
coast providing an outflow channel aloft with 30-50kts of flow,
weakly curved anticyclonically to further diffluence and broad
scale vertical ascent. The surface front continues to remain
fairly stationary and just off-shore, though there is a weak
surface to 850mb wave near 26.5N 96.5W but may not be drifting
southeasterly. Though due to curvature of the coast, confluence
remains solid enough and with deep layer moisture over 2.7",
rainfall efficiency capability will remain in enough proximity to
suggest 2"/hr rates would be possible with transient convective
cores if they develop. Gradient of instability with maximum of
1500 J/kg just a few miles off coast, even in a deeply saturated
profile suggests that vertical development may occur even with
typically weak convergence. As such the risk of excessive
rainfall capable of maintaining flooding or increasing to rapid
inundation flooding remains possible for the early morning through
afternoon; though current trends hint toward a weak lull, this may
change hour by hour and potential for 2-4" totals through 18z keep
potential for flash flooding possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!81wNcFxxIhqHFBfZgnhD58jWGBf675_9P2zjj4J1R2OSR58KOYiJBShQLNs9z5hXYZCOl0mNYO04BNFk9MlafLP08ZY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26499731 26439718 26039708 25869718 25809735
25849756 25979761 26239752

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 16:11:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051610
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1454
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...Southern Georgia...Northern Florida...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051610Z - 052200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, potentially repeating/back-building cells
in a very saturated atmosphere and soil conditions may support
localized or reaggrivation of rapid inundation flooding.
Additional 2-4+" totals and rates over 2.5"/hr remain possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and 10.3um EIR show a few cooling
clusters in proximity to the deep layer moisture axis and
stationary frontal zone across northern Florida and southern
Georgia, generally located at the coast where instability is
greatest and is expected to increase further with filtered
insolation. 16z surface analysis denotes a developing surface
wave near ECP in the FL Panhandle and a secondary likely between
Valdosta and Waycross, GA, with the stationary front extending
eastward into the Georgia Bight. Each wave is providing
increased downstream moisture flux convergence in proximity to the
higher 2000 J/kg and 1500 J/kg, respectively instability pools to
feed the currently shallow convection. However, deep layer trough
is flattening but also exiting toward the northeast across
southern GA, helping to drive some surface circulation and FGEN
due to strengthening northerly flow along the Atlantic coast.
This is concurrently resulting in increased confluent upstream
flow into the Bay/Gulf county coastlines further supporting
convergence with increasing 15-20kts of inflow.

While cells in SE GA into the Atlantic are expected to be more
progressive, there are a few of them already along the front in a
favorable orientation for repeating/training in the near term and
while not fully capable of the full potential of 2.5-3"/hr rates
(given total PWats of 2.5"+), the shallow cells have had some
suggestion of 1.5-2"/hr potential and while moving over swampier
areas, streak of 2-4" totals with recently saturated upper soils,
suggest at least some inundation flooding potential will be
possible over the next few hours, especially near/in urban centers
that along I-95.

Further west, the concern is greater for localized rapid
inundation, mainly due to the higher urbanization, but the
strengthening onshore/confluent flow and frictional convergence
will allow for redevelopment upon the upwind edge of the
convective clusters. Deep layer flow parallel to the boundary as
well as increasing surface temperatures downstream into southern
GA/northern FL will help to increase modest instability for
convective maintenance. The repeating of 2-2.5"/hr rates
suggests localized 3-4" are more probable into the early
afternoon, with some aggressive 12z CAMs even as high as locally
6-7", while this seems less likely, the available moisture is
clearly there and even slight increase in surface heating within
the deeply saturated profile could quickly escalate MLCAPE values
and therefore vertical loading to support 3"/hr rates.

All considered, with deep layer moisture, modest instability and
favorable training profiles crossing an already saturated ground,
localized incidents of flash/rapid inundation flooding are
considered possible; though confidence in any given location is
below average, but slightly better along the coastal and with
urban sites.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6LQT4bEFW_4DBQAsqPVZZdsDU-OSlJdQmFY65CWEjob0RJRGCswXB-9BG46qCobVBf8FIlOhffEItvvypkXV-PIRYAc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31728185 31668098 31148126 30388149 30098298
29918396 29598496 29618540 30008573 30458610
30988513 31518344

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 20:22:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052022
FFGMPD
FLZ000-052351-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1455
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of North FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052021Z - 052351Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected over
portions of North FL over the next few hours. Hourly rain amounts
to 3" could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have developed near and
ahead of a backdoor cold front moving across North FL. Sea breeze
fronts are pushing slowly inland from the Atlantic and Gulf in
advance of the cold front. Precipitable water values are
2.25-2.5". There is some low-level confluence ahead of the front
at 850 hPa. ML CAPE is 1500-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is
close to 25 kts.

The 12z REFS/18z HREF guidance indicates that heavy rainfall is
possible for another 3-4 hours within this area, particularly
eastern areas as the Gulf breeze front is advancing quicker
eastward given the low-level southwest flow present. Given the
ingredients, hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible. This could
lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_-8xT40yi0076YjJGqwD5L4lmLm2gGvqJCBAyr0qPC7FND_trJBUJescOOQJrHnX4U88FidrYqUMXf35tRlP7eClIKw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30238282 30098177 30168135 29418108 28888097
28248198 28388252 28828241 29648262 30098291

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 21:44:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052144
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-060341-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1456
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of the FL Panhandle/Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052141Z - 060341Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to remain
across portions of the FL Panhandle & Big Bend into tonight.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional local totals to 5" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A frontal wave west of Appalachicola is accompanied
by a convective line that's been moving eastward over the past
several hours, with radar estimates reaching 3" in an hour at
times. Precipitable water values are ~2.25". ML CAPE is 500-2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25 kts.

The guidance appears to try to weaken the thunderstorm band as it
moves across the Apalachicola River into the FL Big Bend and keeps
heavy rainfall festering across the region into tonight within a
warm advection regime and an area of 850 hPa confluence near and
ahead of the frontal wave which shifts east to east-southeast into
Appalachee Bay with time. Given the ingredients available, hourly
rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible. This
would be problematic in urban areas, where soils have saturated,
or over clay soils/hills.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6toasGvqRU9HCueZp3-2XsGGUKegV12AznI7kEydozm5XGlnbAbQATZIt1n1jJhpwnfht9Jkt5CkFVoZOhIXQ1IpMxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31028492 30698366 29458331 29898409 29448520
29498545 30188488

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 21:47:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052147
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-060341-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1456...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
546 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Corrected for typos

Areas affected...portions of the FL Panhandle/Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052141Z - 060341Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to remain
across portions of the FL Panhandle & Big Bend into tonight.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional local totals to 5" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A frontal wave west of Apalachicola is accompanied by
a convective line that's been moving eastward over the past
several hours, with radar estimates reaching 3" in an hour at
times. Precipitable water values are ~2.25". ML CAPE is 500-2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25 kts.

The guidance appears to try to weaken the thunderstorm band as it
moves across the Apalachicola River into the FL Big Bend and keeps
heavy rainfall festering across the region into tonight within a
warm advection regime and an area of 850 hPa confluence near and
ahead of the frontal wave which shifts east to east-southeast into
Apalachee Bay with time. Given the ingredients available, hourly
rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible. This
would be problematic in urban areas, where soils have saturated,
or over clay soils/hills.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Jbjm5rBUE1cUAGksLoT0zCqDUDZzVBDZB6z4C89F_s1NS0BkGIlNlMtm0ygb-9JMiwTwS5HzPH7aIqHggkCax-l3a4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31028492 30698366 29458331 29898409 29448520
29498545 30188488

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 03:47:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060347
FFGMPD
FLZ000-060900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1457
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1146 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060345Z - 060900Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will remain possible across the
central FL Peninsula, including the Forgotten Coast through 09Z.
Peak hourly rainfall of 2-4 inches will be possible.

Discussion...0330Z radar imagery showed heavy showers lingering
across Apalachee Bay into the north-central FL Panhandle, located
east to northeast of a 925-820 mb low located ~70 miles west of
Apalachicola. MRMS showed a recent history of hourly rainfall
totals of 2 to 3+ inches over the northeastern Gulf with up to an
inch along I-10 to the northwest of Tallahassee. Precipitable
water values were estimated at 2.3 to 2.4 inches across the
central FL Peninsula while MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg was limited to
the immediate coastal locations of Gulf and Franklin counties via
the 03Z SPC mesoanalysis, with instability dropping off rapidly
toward the north.

The 925-850 mb low is forecast to retrograde slowly toward the
west over the next 3-6 hours while an axis of low level moisture
transport remains focused into the Forgotten Coast. Low level
convergence and confluence into the region atop diffluent flow in
the upper levels should allow for the redevelopment of showers,
with possible embedded thunder, across coastal locations of the
central FL Peninsula over the next few hours.

The environment will be supportive of hourly rainfall of 2-4
inches near the coast, although these higher rates may remain
quite isolated and/or remain just offshore. Farther north,
overrunning and lighter rainfall rates (likely less than 1 in/hr)
will continue at times with slow movement. Portions of the region
have received heavy rain over the past 48 hours which has left
soils saturated in many locations. Therefore, while the coverage
of higher rainfall rates may remain isolated in coverage, some
flash flooding may result, especially with overlap of urban or
otherwise poorly draining locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4BbTnDq65XYDnHS7yFC2IU0EFAh7EW275wyY5Gy3WaQL6ngFijpl67pz5OMR-EPViuDz1mvhzcb5hAQZMFAZChZOAfQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30708509 30498468 30358434 30048412 29768407
29458425 29268464 29228507 29428563 29728592
30198620 30688581

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 09:00:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060900
FFGMPD
FLZ000-061430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1458
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Areas affected...central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060858Z - 061430Z

Summary...The threat for localized flash flooding will continue
across southern portions of the central FL Panhandle through 14Z.
Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible.

Discussion...Radar imagery has shown an increase in the coverage
and intensity of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
vicinity of the Forgotten Coast over the past 2 hours. Radar
imagery from KEVX and KTLH showed a couple of embedded
mesocyclones (one located 40 miles southwest of Panama City and
another over eastern St. George Island) with enhanced hourly
rainfall from MRMS exceeding 3 to 4 inches at times given the
presence of effective shear between 30-40 kt and a baroclinic
boundary nearby. The increase in activity has been located to the
east of a frontal low, located ~90 miles south of Choctawatchee
Bay, associated with a quasi-stationary front that extended
eastward across the northern Gulf into the northern FL Peninsula.
MLCAPE has remained similar over the past few hours with 500-1000
J/kg confined to southern portions of Gulf and Franklin counties
via the 08Z mesoanalysis. SPC mesoanalyses also showed a slight
increase of 100-200 J/kg over the past 3 hours ending 08Z along
with high PWs values near 2.4 inches, owing to a slight increase
in lower level warm air advection.

The surface low is forecast to drift slowly northward or
northwestward over the next 3-6 hours which should allow the
eastward extending front to also move north. The RAP forecasts a
subtle increase in the magnitude of the low level flow to the east
of surface low into Gulf, Franklin and Wakulla counties, while
also indicating greater directional convergence along the elevated
portion of the boundary that clips the southern portion of the
central FL Panhandle.

Slow moving showers/thunderstorms are expected to continue
increasing in the vicinity of the Forgotten coast over the next
1-2 hours with slow movement and embedded mesocyclones possible,
containing enhanced rainfall efficiency. There is some uncertainty
with the precise latitude of heaviest rain which may end up just
offshore. However, there is enough of a threat to land that could
result in localized flash flooding over the next 3-6 hours with
the greatest threat to southern Gulf and Franklin counties.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9hVCJpeXVs6fYtL9qua9U5AZhzmebBJ-tOr1p55B2fa9EOEHQn0wUS9qC48zLLDPJm4bGmvmzjjhq6rxSyg63-nWQ_4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30228527 30168486 30158372 29668360 29568424
29388472 29348509 29448547 29638566 29798581
30058581 30188555

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 20:04:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 062003
FFGMPD
FLZ000-070200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1459
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062000Z - 070200Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms containing rainfall rates up
to 2.5"/hr at times may lead to isolated rainfall totals up to 5"
through this evening. This will bring the potential for isolated
flash flooding, particularly for urban areas and flood prone
locations.

DISCUSSION...A stationary front analyzed at 19Z bisects the
Florida Peninsula just south of I-4, with a surface low analyzed
in the northwestern Gulf associated with an organized cluster of
slow-moving thunderstorms tracking generally eastward. Meanwhile,
south of this front isolated to scattered thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon and are most focused along the Space and
Treasure coasts of east-central Florida. This stationary front and
overall weak/moist mid-level flow will continue to focus
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms into this evening. PWs range
from 2.4" to just over 2.5" and the WBZ height around 16k in the
region (per the 12Z TBW sounding) makes for a very tropical and
highly efficient airmass for heavy rainfall. This is seen via
limited lighting in most cells onshore, but MRMS rainfall
estimates remain impressive up to around 2-3"/hr.

Going through this evening, isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms should continue as inflow SBCAPE remains
above 3000 J/kg, with more widespread activity just east of the
MCV in the northwest Gulf. This activity will impact the Tampa Bay
metro area and could lead to urban flooding concerns should
activity move inland and rainfall rates remain 2-3"/hr. 12Z HREF
and REFS probs for greater than 3" per 3-hrs is widely 30-50%
around the Tampa Bay area eastward towards the Treasure and Space
coasts of central FL through 00Z tonight. Given the high FFGs and
flat/swampy ground conditions, most impacts will be confined to
urban areas and low-lying flood prone locations.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_YhCsQx_tNWfdqTltHWF0ino4McPvAxK5oq6Y_zAwqqEYlRrjp2cu69UYNOwwW-ZWaZS_6jxNbDvOMwAbU6jzpoMARI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28668261 28058223 27948170 28438125 28518075
28128036 27308008 27128045 27398104 27318160
26848210 27048270 27638301 28358304

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 15:34:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 081533
FFGMPD
FLZ000-082100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1460
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1132 AM EDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081530Z - 082100Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing this afternoon will be capable
of producing rainfall rates in excess of 3"/hr. Flash flooding is
possible this afternoon, especially in more urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite shows mostly sunny skies over
south FL and widespread cloud cover over the northern half of the
FL Peninsula. This is generally a good demarcation for the
location of a stalled frontal boundary located over central FL
that will become the focus for thunderstorms this afternoon. The
contrast between cloud cover to the north and clearer skies to the
south will tighten the thermal/CAPE gradient already in place. The
environment is primed to produce highly efficient rainfall rates.
The 12Z TBW (Tampa) sounding measured a 2.46" PW and MLCAPE >800
J/kg. Low-to-mid level RH values were above 90%, and RH values

80% were common within the 500-150mb layer, highlighting the

impressive moisture content available within the troposphere.

Among the other notable parameters is the vertical wind shear
present. The 12Z TBW sounding measured cloud layer shear levels
near 30 kts. Per SPC sounding climatology, this is around the 90th climatological percentile. In addition, much of the state is
located beneath the right-entrance region of a 250mb jet streak
which is providing excellent upper-level divergence aloft. Between
the anomalous moisture content, the frontal boundary acting as a
surface-based trigger, and the synoptic-scale forcing aloft,
central FL is likely to contend with organized clusters of strong
thunderstorms this afternoon.

NASA SPoRT-LIS show 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles are above 90%
over much of northern FL and even much of central FL. Latest 12Z
HREF guidance shows moderate chances (40-60%) for 3-hr and 6-hr
FFG exceedance this afternoon and low chances (20-40%) for 1-hr
rainfall rates >3"/hr. This is notable considering the prolonged
S-SW low-level winds that are intersecting the frontal boundary
could cause training thunderstorm activity. Flash flooding is
possible this afternoon in areas where training thunderstorms
occur, as well as within the more urbanized communities that
contain a greater concentration of hydrophobic surfaces are
present.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-PFCv6Fki4dga6jVOvHOdkSIOvXm2aYAyeQZBQTL7QYGQJT7iGl1GyYUCqAi4pfuoQLjeagL6XY9efFViT-Dzgw5-7k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29468147 29388093 29138070 28578027 28188011
27647999 27027986 26677987 26198013 26238045
26638058 26778149 26548205 26608239 26668257
26968289 27448300 27878309 28338305 28668305
28988289 29128265 29268206

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 21:15:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082046
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1461
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082045Z - 090200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing >3"/hr
rainfall rates may produce flash flooding in poor drainage areas
and in highly urbanized communities.

DISCUSSION...20Z Doppler Radar showed scattered thunderstorms over
central and southern FL, while some occasional elevated convection
flared up over northern FL. The environment remains highly
saturated with PWs reaching 2.5" in some instances. The nearby
frontal boundary has played a role in triggering thunderstorms in
central FL, while the western and eastern coasts of FL have seen
storms flare up along sea breeze fronts. From Tampa on east to
Cape Canaveral and points south, RAP mesoanalysis shows >1,000
J/kg of MLCAPE available to developing storms. The 300mb jet
circulation pattern also shows upper-level divergence remains
present within the right-entrance region of a 300mb jet streak.

Latest RAP forecast shows unusually high levels of vertical wind
shear lingering into the evening hours, as will the sufficient
instability and copious amounts of moisture aloft. It will not
take much from any lifting mechanism; sea breezes, outflow
boundaries, or the frontal boundary to generate additional storms
through 00Z. Most CAMs are in agreement that the coverage of
thunderstorms should begin to dwindle not long after 00Z and most
storms should dissipate by midnight EDT. The available moisture
and instability, along with the potential for some training
t-storms near and south of the frontal boundary, could result in
pockets of >3"/hr rainfall rates. This could lead to flash
flooding in more heavily urbanized communities and poor drainage
spots through the early evening hours.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4GPwCVhpz8RDc6TAfX_pVzHKMc7Cjf7bhDGBoy_d-ywpHkh15sQTy4BFzLIH5WcsKB4eRxS5gadBGcegC4wqJN8cn48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28968111 28888056 28818043 28468020 28068013
27628001 27358006 27107998 26598006 25988033
25938053 26458098 26638133 26768177 26818218
27018246 27418279 28048294 28428274 28668248
28878170

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:43:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 091703
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1462
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern AL...FL Panhandle...Southwest GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091700Z - 092300Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Isaias will
continue to lift north over the next several hours across southern
AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. The threat for flash
flooding will gradually increase with time.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
conventional radar mosaics show the eye of Hurricane Isaias
continuing its approach to the FL Panhandle. As the storm
continues to lift north this afternoon, it will be increasingly
interacting with a frontal zone draped around the north side of
the storm's circulation.

Deep and strongly convergent southerly low to mid-level flow
around the eastern flank of the storm will surge north across the
FL Panhandle over the next several hours. This will foster an
expanding shield of heavy rainfall more regionally via deep
warm/moist air advection and associated isentropic ascent.
Gradually the poleward transport of instability will favor the
development and expansion of convection near and north of the
front in an elevated fashion. However, core instability-driven
convective bands associated with Isaias will be focusing farther
south, but will be lifting north around the storm's eastern
semicircle toward the FL Panhandle.

A nose of MUCAPE values across the eastern Gulf of America are on
the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg in association with the deep layer
southerly flow, and much of the stronger convective banding will
be aligned with this instability axis in conjunction with stronger
low-level convergence. Central convection associated with the core
of Isaias will likely still remain largely offshore until later
this afternoon, but rainfall rates are expected to increase ahead
of this as strong deep layer forcing increases along with outer
convective banding features.

Rainfall rates of up to 1 inch/hour can be expected to arrive by
around 21Z (4PM CDT), with rates potentially reaching 2+
inches/hour shortly thereafter. These rainfall rates and an
expected increase in cell-training concerns should support some 3
to 5+ inch totals by early this evening, and this is consistent
with the 12Z HREF/REFS guidance.

FFG are very high across the region, so initially the soils/ground
conditions should be able to accommodate the front-end rainfall
ahead Isaias' central convection and impending landfall in the
western FL Panhandle, but as the rates increase and begin
involving more urbanized areas, the concerns for flash flooding
will begin to steadily increase.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Gj_3v-RekROcZNzXa6RinTMXWN5Qy8Yz9Nz4tu4OkHm1-r31EqezN3WE60tqjGtyUlFYoSglixuhd3aCHu_jpqA1mc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31848541 31658440 31208357 30648326 30168338
29828371 29578433 29508524 29698574 30038631
30108706 30188800 30558836 31068821 31528756
31788659

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 20:27:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092027
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-100225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1463
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Northern FL & Southeast GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092025Z - 100225Z

SUMMARY...Outer bands from Isaias are approaching northern
Florida, while pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms along a
nearby frontal boundary may produce excessive rainfall rates up to
3"/hr. Flash flooding is possible late afternoon and into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite shows a cluster of thunderstorms
off the Southeast coast with a ribbon congested cumulus clouds
effectively marking the location of a quasi-stationary front.
Doppler Radar also shows the eastern most outer bands of Isaias
tracking NNE and heading for the nature coast.

The Florida Peninsula is caught between a tightening pressure
gradient with high pressure to the north and northeast, and
powerful Hurricane Isaias to the west. This is fostering a SErly
925-850mb flow pattern over the Florida Peninsula and off the Gulf
Stream that is forecast to push this frontal boundary northward as
a warm front this evening. Instability is highest over northern FL
where as much as 2,000 J/kg is available. There also remains no
shortage of tropical moisture available, highlighted by >2.25" PWs
that will stick around through this evening.

As Isaias tracks north, so will the frontal boundary as 1000-850mb
layer warm-air advection (WAA) advances northward. The tightening
theta-e gradient will develop additional storms along the both
I-95 and I-10 corridors into this evening. Low-level easterly
winds off the Carolina coast will accelerate and provide
additional moisture just north of the frontal boundary. RAP
guidance shows a narrow zone of 925-850mb mass flux convergence
over northern FL beyond 00Z. This area is likely to become the
focus for increasing thunderstorm coverage, and potential for some back-building storms given the gradual northward advancement of
the frontal boundary.

FFGs are lowest from the Jacksonville metro area on north along
I-95 into southeast GA and along I-10 where 1hr FFGs are as low as
2.5" in some cases. Given the highly saturated soundings that
include increasing instability and warm cloud layer depths of at
least 13,000ft, highly efficient rainfall rates up to 3"/hr are
anticipated late afternoon and into this evening. Flash flooding
is possible with more heavily urbanized communities and low-lying,
poor drainage areas most at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!924-T7v37vl02QXisA1zCS0_jA0NZwuTFH6CbiN9PFxIrftq-gK2g6m5g6U0oBnD5yBl6LJmZ_d71Ovhem5kNY5OPdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31098223 31048174 30968150 30828139 30568122
30248112 29918110 29488117 29448136 29408163
29258187 29078197 28898206 28648216 28448225
28388251 28418264 28598283 28808297 28988312
29178332 29358346 29628369 30048369 30208361
30378352 30748309 30948268
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 22:08:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092207
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1464
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
606 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle...Southern Alabama...Southwest
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092205Z - 100320Z

SUMMARY...

--Isaias will make landfall soon and produce torrential rainfall
rates of 3-4" per hour within its northern eyewall.

--Rainfall totals between 2-5" and localized amounts up to 8" are
likely for areas directly within Isaias's path. Similar amounts
are possible within Isaias's eastern outer bands.

--Significant flash flooding impacts are likely; including but not
limited to flooded/impassable roads, water rescues, and flooding
in numerous structures that include homes and businesses.

DISCUSSION...

Isaias is barreling towards the Florida Panhandle with landfall
expected within the next few hours. Isaias is feeling the affects
of both increasing vertical wind shear and is undergoing
extra-tropical transition. This is evident in satellite
representation with a large baroclinic leaf of moisture of water
vapor over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, and the majority of the precipitation shield is displaced to the north and east of
Isaias's circulation.

Doppler Radar shows the northern eyewall of Isaias heading towards
an area as far west as Pensacola and as far east as Tyndall AFB.
It is between these locations of the Florida Panhandle where the
most significant impacts from Isaias will be felt. Farther east,
the outer bands of Isaias will extend all the way to Apalachee
Bay. To as far east as the Nature Coast, the outer bands will be
positioned within an area of 925-850mb wind convergence and
continue to support additional strong thunderstorms over the FL
Big Bend and on down the Nature Coast this evening.

The one bit of positive news is that Isaias is becoming more
progressive and its eyewall will continue to lose its structure
and intensity as it moves into southern AL tonight. The window for
the prolific rainfall rates is going to be a couple hours at most
within the eyewall. However, that is still enough time for those
directly in Isaias's path to receive significant rainfall amounts
that pose a major threat to life and property this evening. The
21Z WoFS members utilizing 5-minute rainfall rates show anywhere
from 0.25-0.40" as the storm advances inland, which indicate
3-4"/hr rainfall rates and locally higher rates possible within
the eyewall. Similar rates are possible within the eastern bands
over the Big Bend as well.

Local residents should follow the guidance of local officials as
Isaias advances north through the central Gulf Coast region this
evening. Significant and life-threatening flash flooding is
expected in the path of Isaias this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!461wSvACDESBqMm3a22z6B26Ki8Y0-cmmxhRcKozJDTVxDO-ul-56RJ-s-j0M2XxLU1rYtxSx3nJVhppM4-kUFdc9KU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32128694 32108620 31938569 31838520 31678476
31418438 31168388 30908357 30698338 30488336
30178356 29878370 29588412 29568502 29798585
30078649 30158690 30168735 30178766 30468783
30758789 31148786 31498769 31888745
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 02:16:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100216
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1465
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1016 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Big Bend of Florida into Southwest/central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100215Z - 100800Z

SUMMARY...Training eastern outer bands of Hurricane Isaias.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic shows Isaias has made landfall
further west near Destin. The overall structure of Isaias is also
starting to take on more extratropical characteristics with a
broadening dry slot rounding the southern edge toward the
northeast into the Big Bend of the northeast Gulf of America,
while the inner core is starting to broaden further enhancing the
inner core band within the eastern quadrant currently oriented
from E Franklin county back toward Jackson county. This will be a
narrower band but still have stronger speed and therefore moisture
convergence for efficient heavy rainfall and capability of
2-3"/hr. Slow eastward drift will continue as Isaias wobbles
northward, however, given the narrow nature of the band the heavy
rainfall footprint will be smaller but moving through areas
already under flash flooding warnings. Additional stripe of 2-4"
across the central FL panhandle into far SE AL, SW GA will likely
continue in flooding conditions.

Further east...
The main outer band remains best aligned with the warm conveyor
belt of the cyclone and traps the greatest moisture content
through depth in a deeply confluent flow from surface through
700mb with 60 to 75 degrees of confluence across the eastern Gulf
toward the intersection of the stationary front across Northern
Florida. Total PWat values remain around 2.5" in this outer band.
In addition, warm waters and higher theta-E values help to
maintain a modestly broad instability axis generally aligned or
slightly west of the WCB, moisture stream. Saturated profiles
with MLCAPEs over 1000-1500 J/kg, and IVT values of 700-850 kg/m/s
per CIRA LVT layers over 200 kg/m/s through 500mb should support
flux for 3"/hr rates with occasionally higher capability toward 4"
locally. Unlike the band further west, it is going to remain
broader and slower in eastward progression. There remains
uncertainty to longevity of convergence upstream over the source
region for extreme localized totals, but there remain some
suggestions for a stripe of additional 4-5" totals across the Big
Bend northward into far southern GA. Overall totals will likely
reduce further north as dry slot expands northeastward and overall
moisture values through depth diminish slightly and instability
may reduce vertical vigor through southern Georgia. Still 2-4"
totals are possible which will help to expand areas of flash
flooding likely through the overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Dxxd5s8bFq32R8RXS4_-LUN9N33lQzuVr4I5FyGskgDXvcMlLeYJEnfDCTbe1fs7pPzKq2cj7pJ8AYwHm2rIWL_pMA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31708495 31708377 31438297 30938261 30198248
29148264 29118300 29458338 29908383 29988416
29748453 29618496 30138504 30768545 31118563
31508546
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 02:56:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100255
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1466
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1054 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern Alabama...West Central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100300Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Inner core of Isaias expected to transition to broader,
prolonged moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation shield
across. Broad 2-3" totals with embedded higher 3-4" totals
through 09z, likely to result in flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Even a hour or so after landfall, the broader
northern band of Isaias is starting to shrink in areal coverage
for the highest reflectivity and therefore rates still over
2.5-3"/hr as it is crossing out of Florida into S Alabama.
However, the downstream moderate rainfall rate shield continues to
expand across central AL into W GA taking on a more traditional
baroclinic comma head appearance in regional RADAR. This is in
response to the strengthening of the TROWAL as the gradient
further tightens in the northern hemisphere of the circulation and
entering the broadening entrance region of the 70-90kt 300mb jet
that expands across N MS, N AL, all of TN into the Southern
Appalachians. Solid easterly moisture flux off the Atlantic
combined with southeasterly moisture flux still over 70kts along
the western branch of the TROWAL (denoted well by the remaining
inner eastern band convection across the central FL Peninsula
arching westward into south-central AL. Embedded 1-2"/hr rates
could still be expected along the deformation zone/interface with
with the TROWAL, though the overall shield rates of .5-1"/hr will
continue to compound through the overnight period. As a result, a
broad area of 2-3" is expected across much of southern and central
AL with a few stripes of 3-4"+ along the southeast portions of the
shield in SE AL/SW GA/W central GA over a 6hr period. FFG values
already compromised across S AL are still likely to be exceeded
but starting to shift from the 1hr and 3hr exceedance toward the
3hr and 6hr exceedance. Further north, 3-6hr FFG values of 3-4"
and 4-5" respectively are likely to be exceeded locally and given
the broad footprint, flash flooding will start to shift more over
toward main stem/riverine flooding (please refer to AHD from
National Water Center for additional details).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4xKK1DmnO_FamomlzcW3g9oiN-7CCxUm0iSr-jrlpHJS0jh6PsISUawP7GIO8TjrlQ5GOW6mWiVoAzmPthr6dNjXjcU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33738506 33408422 32598376 31858404 31518556
31118593 31078684 31778756 32428791 33238768
33728683
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 03:26:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100326
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1467
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Northeast Florida...Georgia...Southern
South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100325Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, potentially back-building supercells near
lifting coastal front may allow for additional localized incidents
of flash flooding due to 2-3"/hr rates.

DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis shows a weak surface inflection
near, just north of Orlando along the older stationary front.
GOES-E 3.9um SWIR loop and theta-E gradient analysis suggest the
surface front remains along the First Coast lifting northward
where it becomes a bit more ill-defined along the SE GA coast
before sharpening again near 31N. Low level wind response has
resulted in strong moisture flux convergence along portions of the
boundary for elevated thunderstorm activity to blossom through the
last few hours, especially near Duval county and along the front
that extends eastward along 31N. Very high Tds in the upper 70s
with still some modest temperatures differences in the low 80s
maintains a solid conditionally unstable airmass in proximity to
the front and therefore the coast. Strongly veered low level wind
profile including wind speed maintains solid helicity and bulk
shear for modest updraft rotation. This further increases moisture
flux convergence into the updraft for efficient rainfall
production of 2-3"/hr rates. Additionally, southerly inflow along
the upwind flank has reduced forward speeds to allow for increased
residency across and in proximity to the Jacksonville Metro
resulting in localized 2-4" totals in 1-2 hours resulting in
localized flash flooding.

This environment is expected to maintain/continue but slowly shift
northward along the GA coast. In addition, RAP forecast of
southeasterly 850mb winds will further press the stationary front
toward the central SC coast as well. This will bring MLCAPEs
toward 1500-2000 J/kg. Surface winds are expected to be
northeasterly across the Carolinas and veering southward to
further increase convergence for scattered thunderstorm activity
but maintain potential for back-building/redevelopment near the
frontal zone. This will support cells to remain in close
proximity to coastal locations including Savannah and Charleston,
SC though most of the late morning...though trends are for a
slight delay in arrival further north. Additionally, best
convergence may remain offshore, as may the cells which would
obviously reduce any potential for flash flooding. Still, the
proximity remains close and with such highly efficient rainfall
rates, rapid inundation flooding remains possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5K5-EMZKGL7fKm5zpgMtocGEOnINCiGYyx21iy7IRmi8Spb7RsbNguqzyumHpclsy-VCNejwvHJ3aJ9chvgDMEwQCa0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32558075 32238049 31708096 31568105 30878135
29998125 29658153 29998193 30948213 31778186
32358137
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 05:17:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100517
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1466...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Corrected for In concerning line...Flash Flooding considered Likely

Areas affected...Central and Southern Alabama...West Central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100300Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Inner core of Isaias expected to transition to broader,
prolonged moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation shield
across. Broad 2-3" totals with embedded higher 3-4" totals
through 09z, likely to result in flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Even a hour or so after landfall, the broader
northern band of Isaias is starting to shrink in areal coverage
for the highest reflectivity and therefore rates still over
2.5-3"/hr as it is crossing out of Florida into S Alabama.
However, the downstream moderate rainfall rate shield continues to
expand across central AL into W GA taking on a more traditional
baroclinic comma head appearance in regional RADAR. This is in
response to the strengthening of the TROWAL as the gradient
further tightens in the northern hemisphere of the circulation and
entering the broadening entrance region of the 70-90kt 300mb jet
that expands across N MS, N AL, all of TN into the Southern
Appalachians. Solid easterly moisture flux off the Atlantic
combined with southeasterly moisture flux still over 70kts along
the western branch of the TROWAL (denoted well by the remaining
inner eastern band convection across the central FL Peninsula
arching westward into south-central AL. Embedded 1-2"/hr rates
could still be expected along the deformation zone/interface with
with the TROWAL, though the overall shield rates of .5-1"/hr will
continue to compound through the overnight period. As a result, a
broad area of 2-3" is expected across much of southern and central
AL with a few stripes of 3-4"+ along the southeast portions of the
shield in SE AL/SW GA/W central GA over a 6hr period. FFG values
already compromised across S AL are still likely to be exceeded
but starting to shift from the 1hr and 3hr exceedance toward the
3hr and 6hr exceedance. Further north, 3-6hr FFG values of 3-4"
and 4-5" respectively are likely to be exceeded locally and given
the broad footprint, flash flooding will start to shift more over
toward main stem/riverine flooding (please refer to AHD from
National Water Center for additional details).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_MlIsVkAcfNZ8-0j0rt7Q-vW6zml0Pkf_GGFHkZWV8yHbRl9ZjGqcocX-1SGJEuATC9cY_soG0bEYSYd7PZDRcyN4VM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33738506 33408422 32598376 31858404 31518556
31118593 31078684 31778756 32428791 33238768
33728683
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 08:23:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100822
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1468
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...West central to Northeast Georgia...Adj.
East-central AL & Far Upstate SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100820Z - 101400Z

SUMMARY...Axis of prolonged moderate rainfall with occasional
embedded bursts up to 1"/hr. Broad area of 2-3"/6hrs may result
in localized flooding concerns though mostly across urban or
typically prone areas.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9um loop shows Isaias has rapidly
deteriorated in vertical development and has transitioned toward
an extra-tropical cyclone in shape and structure. As a result,
frontal isentropic ascent has begun to be the main driver of
precipitation especially along and north of the core near the
deepening mid-level low in central AL. At the surface, strong
northeast to easterly flow is helping to reinforce, strengthen
FGEN as the warm sector is trying to advance northward as well.
This is steepening the isentropes across south-central Georgia to
coastal South Carolina though maintaining strong confluent inflow
along the cool conveyor belt.

Warm conveyor moisture and higher theta-E remains across the
eastern Gulf of America and is ascending across the front with
deep ample moisture and still in the 2-2.25" range near the
effective triple point near Columbus, GA. Modest conditionally
unstable air with MUCAPEs of 500-750 J/kg are expected to spread
over the slowly lifting warm front across central GA as well;
broad veering/WAA 850-700mb profiles will likely support some
sufficient convergence for slant-wise convective elements with a
SE to NE orientation through the TROWAL and will likely be transverse/orthogonal to a sharp deformation zone that bisects GA
from Columbus to Upstate SC which also appears to be the best
vertical ascent/divergence aloft due to the broad right entrance
of the upper-level jet. As such, broad .5"-.75"/hr rates will
have embedded potential for those SE to NW repeating slant-wise
ascent elements that could be up to 1-1.25"/hr occasionally. As
such, a slow rise of rainfall totals along the axis may reach
longer duration FFG values in the 3-6hr range though impacts
across metro Atlanta and other urban centers along the axis will
pose the greatest potential for slow rise flooding concerns. As
such, flash flooding is considered possible but definitely
transitioning from a rapid rise toward a broader areal, slow rise
of run-off and stream/main stem river flooding. Please refer to
any AHD products from the National Water Center.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7IFr0__EbC7d9H_M4lA1nlTTOBJrjVT4kbQF1aTjDvXOFQzoiqQyVL4-Qq2IzhC_P59opvo0HXR7pwpPK_bpkLGFygQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34748306 33868284 33008323 32318396 32108504
32618546 33798500 34338455 34738388
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 09:06:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100905
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-101500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1469
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Plain of Georgia & South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100905Z - 101500Z

SUMMARY...Near coastal, slow moving thunderstorms with capability
of 2-3"/hr rates and localized totals of 3-5" may result in rapid
inundation flooding, especially near urban centers.

DISCUSSION...09z surface analysis shows effective warm front of
Post T.C. Isaias lifting northward through SW GA into northern GA;
though along the Atlantic coast, the front continues to sharpen
between the coast and the Gulf stream resulting in strengthening
FGEN and surface moisture convergence along the Georgia coast
northward to central SC coast before the front angles more due
east around 31.7N. VWP and RAP analsys continue to show 850 to
700mb confluent flow from the outer band nearing the central west
coast of FL across to the east coast within the core of the warm
conveyor belt now over the center of the Peninsula. Total PWats
remain very high over 2.25", but mostly driven below the boundary
layer given upper 70s to a spot or two of 80F Tds to feed the high
deep layer moisture convergence. A wedge of enhanced MLCAPEs
along the Gulf stream is nosing northward toward the frontal
zone/convergence axis helping to further spur new development
throughout the warm sector in the Georgia Bight. However, recently
new cells are developing along the coast as well.

Effective bulk shear is maximized along the new developing
stationary front axis (noted well in theta-E graident) that
crosses southern GA from the center of Isaias across to Hilton
Head Island. Values of 40 to 70kts, suggest increasing
organization and rotating updrafts near the front will slow
northward propagation while additionally increasing localized
moisture flux to support 2-3"/hr rates. Hi-Res CAMs are
struggling with the storm scale convergence for development though
HRRR appears to be simulating the recent coastal development
better than the WoFS and ARW solutions that favor cores in the
center of the Gulf Stream. Still, given efficient rainfall
production spots of 2-5" are possible and while being along the
sandy coastal plain, there are sufficient urban locations that
localized rapid inundation flooding remains possible through the
early morning hours, slowly expanding northward from central GA
toward Savannah and eventually near Charleston, SC.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7LEfNsYHfCDC-3jFS_uNXAuVUonj1hOUGI4mKH90_AMZW5Fz2nZy99rpz-OOkJlsrQ_ATkxe_auFPY1KBDitB-DMxyU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33737925 33357895 32607987 32308040 31928087
31368120 31058131 31218182 32048185 32838158
33418101 33728020
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 14:32:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101431
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-102030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1470
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Appalachians and
Interior Southeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101430Z - 102030Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will continue to be possible through
mid-afternoon as rainfall rates gradually increase with time.
Short-term urban impacts may occur across north-central to
northeast GA, with more terrain-focused impacts becoming a concern
across upstate SC and southwest NC this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a well-defined
TROWAL axis pivoting across large areas of the Southeast U.S.
around the eastern flank of what is now Post-T.C. Isaias. Deep
layer moist east to southeast flow into the southern Appalachians
and adjacent Piedmont areas of the Southeast will combine with a
gradual uptick in instability with the diurnal heating cycle to
promote a gradual increase in the coverage and intensity of shower
and thunderstorm activity going through the mid-afternoon hours.
This will be aided by divergent flow aloft downstream of the upper
trough which coupled with upslope flow into the higher terrain
should yield corridors of more focused lift.

The latest RAP analysis does show some elevated instability up
across areas of northeast GA up through southwest NC with as much
as 250 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This alone coupled with the
orographics will support efficient and rather shallow-top
convection, and especially with the available moisture in the low
to mid-levels of the column. As boundary layer heating increases,
slight deeper convection will become possible.

Already radar shows some some linear convective structures across
north-central GA that are lifting north-northeastward into the
general vicinity of northeast GA, with some uptick in shower
activity seen across upstate SC as well. The convective trends and
latest hires model guidance suggests an uptick in rainfall rates
in time, with potential for 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates.

Overall, the highest rates in the near-term should be across
north-central to northeast GA, but by mid-afternoon and beyond,
the rates up across upstate SC and southwest NC should increase.
Generally as much as 2 to 4 inches of additional rain are expected
for this MPD valid time period which is consistent with the latest
multi-model hires consensus.

Some urban flash flooding concerns will be possible in the
near-term across north-central to northeast GA, but more
terrain-focused impacts will gradually be possible this afternoon
for upstate SC and southwest NC.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9jL4ZyvSh0Iqty0GRu-Nqa4bk8H_KtrYmQXqNhJ3aJcuS_Y3hKNaG3s3ceHNh69fNUB-AtuUEozwqkuoAkavtBfgSjU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35998200 35828142 35448111 34988106 34628115
34098147 33268159 32898201 32808279 32998332
33578371 34488410 35088398 35518352 35888273
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 15:27:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101527
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-102125-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1471
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...FL Big Bend/North FL...Southern and Eastern
GA...Central and Eastern SC...Southeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101525Z - 102125Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving bands and clusters of heavy showers
and thunderstorms will continue across portions of the coastal
plain of the Southeast U.S. High rainfall rates and localized
persistence of these rates will continue to foster a threat for
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar and surface observations shows broken bands and
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting the coastal
plain of the Southeast U.S., with the greater concentrations of
activity generally noted across central and eastern SC, and to a
lesser extent across the FL Big Bend/north FL vicinity and into
far southern GA.

Deep layer moist/unstable flow continues to infiltrate much of the
region around the far eastern flanks of Post-T.C. Isaias, with
MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg, and PWs generally around 2.25+
inches. This combination of strong thermodynamics and deep
moisture along with a belt of 30 to 40+ kt effective bulk shear
values should combine with additional surface heating and focused
low-level convergence for a gradual uptick in shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next several hours.

The greater coverage of convection and generally the higher
rainfall rates should tend to be across the SC Lowcountry/Pee Dee
region, where recent HRRR runs have been suggesting some very
well-organized and slow-moving supercell structures over the next
several hours. Some of this activity is currently occurring
onshore and also offshore of the SC coast. Some of the enhanced
focus of this convection is in response to a strong nearby warm
front which is enhancing forcing in conjunction with a strong
southeast low-level jet overrunning it. The HRRR is advertising
locally some very high rainfall totals given the slow cell-motions.

Areas farther south down across southern and eastern GA and
adjacent areas of north FL and the FL Big Bend will have the focus
of a surface trough and approaching upstream cold front that will
drive the low-level support along with boundary layer
heating/instability.

Additional rainfall totals across eastern/southern GA and into FL
will generally tend to be as high as 3 to 4+ inches of rain in a
very localized fashion. However, heavier totals of up to 4 to 6+
inches will be possible across areas of central and eastern SC
with these slow-moving supercell structures. It is possible that
by later this afternoon, areas of southeast NC may get into some
of these impacts as well. Additional areas of flash flooding will
continue to be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-3BkcH5uGFeSeVNTIgd9Nr4-k85HsjKtRMyFoWXTR1yRWjZBbPQsr3DOTYTjMAEG_VLZzk4_MIj17nIpMinZXZacLZ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...RAH...TAE...
TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34848011 34677876 34297796 33727790 33227831
32417923 31828047 30908131 29478257 29308347
29658403 30198387 31308335 32218258 32918185
33608149 34438118
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 18:12:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101812
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1472
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101810Z - 110010Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today
across the Southwest U.S. Locally heavy rainfall rates of up to 1
to 2 inches/hour will be possible, and this may result in some
areas of flash flooding. This will include potential impacts to
the normally dry washes, burn scars and slot canyons.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W GeoColor satellite imagery over the last
couple of hours along with MRMS data has been showing some
development and localized expansion of shower and thunderstorm
activity across areas of southwest UT, and separately down across
southwest AZ and adjacent areas of the northern Baja Peninsula.

Much of the current activity across southwest UT is more connected
to increasing deep layer moisture transport, orographics and some
modest upper-jet forcing over the region. Whereas down across
southwest AZ and the adjacent Baja Peninsula, it is more connected
to increasing southerly low-level moisture and instability
transport off of the Gulf of CA in response to the approach of
T.S. Rachel. This is confirmed by the latest experimental
CIRA-Layered Vapor Transport product.

A nose of SBCAPE values reaching 1000+ J/kg has reached up across
southwest AZ and far southeast CA, and over the next several
hours, a more regional increase in boundary layer instability is
expected via filtered solar insolation. The increase in
instability along with a broader increase in moisture through the
column will encourage the further development and expansion of
mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next several
hours. This will be further aided by areas of orographic ascent.

PW anomalies continue to increase in association with T.S.
Rachel's mid and high level moisture and the increasing low-level
Gulf of CA contribution, and by later today these anomalies for
many areas will be exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour with some
of the more organized convective cores today, and the latest hires
CAM guidance and general thermodynamic trends suggest at least an
isolated threat for some 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals. Areas of
southeast CA and southern AZ will be at greatest risk for these
totals given greater moisture and instability concentrations.

This may result in some areas of flash flooding, with the normally
dry washes, burn scar areas, and slot canyons at greatest risk for
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-2kw7EmV8IGh19OdSWVthPDVHh-9eznkJd7pSnioZ3ZAQGsZIv8sLn0Btbvhz5QVtEhmwbNKPKmKMUx9y5VqGj-8kyc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...LOX...PSR...SGX...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38921035 38820865 38030823 37060848 36130915
35320989 34181036 33161025 32160962 31290988
31221182 31591286 31951388 32201512 32221659
32541746 33221818 33771912 34421901 34681790
35101654 36051519 37311423 38081329 38611191
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 21:59:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 102159
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1473
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Northeast GA...Western SC...Western NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 102200Z - 110400Z

SUMMARY...The combination of increasing moisture transport, rising
instability, and steadfast southeasterly upslope flow will cause
hourly rainfall rates to surpass 1"/hr in mountainous terrain at
times. With soils growing more saturated, areas of flash flooding
are likely to occur. Locations most at risk are in steep/rugged
terrain where landslides are also possible.

DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis showed Post-T.C. Isaias over
central AL with its frontal structure consisting of an occluded
front stretching into western GA, a cold front extending south
towards the FL Panhandle, and an elongated stationary front over
central GA and SC. Doppler radar and GOES East visible imagery
show a cluster of storms along a pre-frontal trough over eastern
GA and southern SC, with renewed areas of showers and storms
forming in central GA close to the stationary front. Storms around
Augusta, GA produced between 1.5-2.0"/hr rainfall rates and
farther north, 15-minute rainfall rates per MRMS have approached
0.40", suggesting >1"/hr rates have occurred in some spots. These
rates already caused MRMS CREST max unit streamflows to steadily
rise over the past hour with some readings approaching 200 cfs/smi
in western SC.

Both GFS/ECMWF model guidance show an IVT >800 kg/m/s turning N-NE
over central SC and oriented at the southern Appalachians between
00-06Z. As the stationary front to the south lifts as a warm front
this evening, elevated instability (MUCAPE) will also advance
northward with the 20Z HRRR and 18Z RRFS showing between 250-500
J/kg of MUCAPE in western SC/NC. Latest 18Z HREF probabilistic
guidance shows 6-hr QPF > 5-yr ARI probabilities up to 40-50% in
the Blue Ridge of western NC between 00-06Z this evening. When
accounting for prolonged upslope enhancement and warm cloud layers
over 12,000ft deep just east of the higher terrain, the
environment is becoming increasingly ripe for flash flooding in
the complex/rugged terrain of the western Carolinas, and
potentially as far south and west as northeast GA.

There is concern for landslides in the eastern most mountains this
evening. Should training thunderstorms ensue along these mountain
ranges, locally significant flash flooding will be possible this
evening with localized rainfall totals potentially exceeding 4".
Residents should ensure they have a reliable way of receiving
warnings and updates issued from their local WFOs and local
officials this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!58D73MLj37mB5Jq_6c3XWgdOtr5Fv50NePzf8XszgNWAKO3qL-DubMPR7bqYIyKQS2y90FGXUGGmQVSxRy6jsS80njo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36618120 36598097 36508085 36358075 36108074
35798081 35348102 34918134 33788203 33978317
34338368 34798388 35328380 35448357 35598311
35808267 36008212 36218169 36438155 36578142
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 23:59:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 102359
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1474
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Southern CA...Western AZ...Far Southern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110000Z - 110530Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms ahead of Tropical Storm Rachel
will produce up to 2"/hr maximum rainfall rates and may cause
areas of flash flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Rachel continues to undergo
extratropical transition ahead of a closed low to the west of its
circulation. As Rachel's mid-level circulation is captured by the
closed low this evening, Rachel's 500mb center will be directed
almost due north just west of Tijuana while 200-500mb heights
aloft become negatively tilted, maximizing upper-level divergence
over southern CA. At the same time, Rachel's approach will
accelerate the IVTs aloft to exceptionally strong levels from the
Peninsular Range on east throughout the Lower Colorado River
Valley. By 06Z tonight, NAEFS shows IVT values >750 kg/m/s over
Yuma on north along the Colorado River, which would surpass the
highest observed IVT values for this time of year in the CFSR
climatology (1979-2009). Plus, the ECMWF show PWs that could
challenge monthly records in southern CA as Rachel's remnant
circulation moves ashore tonight. PWs over 1.5" will be common,
which are in excess of the 99.5 climatological percentile
throughout all of southern CA and the northern two-thirds of AZ
this evening.

These parameters all highlight a remarkable source of moisture
over the Desert Southwest for October, that also happened to be
paired with rising MUCAPE. RAP mesoanalysis shows 200-400 J/kg of
MUCAPE rises over the past 3-hours over the Lower CO River Valley.
MUCAPE within the highlighted areas along and east of the
Peninsular Range will reside between 500-1,000 J/kg, providing
sufficient instability for storms within this moist of an
environment to produce 1.5-2.0"/hr rainfall rates. Storms
percolating over the Gulf of California will have the ability to
drift north into far southern CA and western AZ thanks to >30 kts
of effective bulk shear as well, helping to sustain these storms
even as they exit the higher theta-e environment to the south.
With repeated rounds of storms tracking over areas that have
already dealt with rounds of storms this afternoon, some soils
will become more saturated and at-risk for flash flooding this
evening. Poor drainage areas, rugged/steep terrain, and dry washes
are also vulnerable to flash flooding this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79hT6UcI8imJXfVHT_4yqarGSKxiCjB3naJrrCN9Z2n2pZKo0Hff-Qy4smibsfhE57OE6LxJMTOHrWR_rDSvD9PikIE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35781436 35761408 35471356 34721338 33611348
33231359 32621394 32301444 32311511 32311586
32281661 32451722 32741749 33111734 33631684
34201668 34691633 35151575 35561512
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 03:42:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110342
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-110930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1475
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1141 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians and Eastern Foothills...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110345Z - 110930Z

SUMMARY...Strong upslope flow with embedded convective lines
moving from south to north to further enhanced localized rain
rates up to 1.25"/hr (1.5"/hr in lower Foothills). Broad 1-2"
through Southern Appalachians with more focused 2-3" totals likely
to maintain flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis shows Post T.C. Isaias center
over N AL with an occluded front through to a triple point low
northeast of Atlanta, GA, where a southward attendant cold front
is starting to press more eastward under influence of shortwave
rotating through the southeast quadrant of the upper-low. The
stationary front connects northeastward toward a secondary surface
wave southeast of Anderson, SC; likely near the western edge of
the warm conveyor belt and deepest moisture. RAP analysis depicts
nose of 1250-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE near this wave and enhanced deep
layer convergence. This aligns northward through the TROWAL and
is supported a south to north band of embedded convective cells
from Spartanburg, SC to Burke, NC county capable of 1-1.5"/hr
rates. Very slow eastward push has supported localized 2-3"
totals in the last few hours and invigorated a corridor of ongoing
flash flooding.

From the secondary low, a warm front bisects SC toward Georgetown,
this front will continue to lift northward through the early
overnight period, but north of the boundary surface to 925mb winds
of 30-40kts will continue to push moderately moist air into the NC
and SW VA Appalachians in advance of the stronger convergent bands
as they press eastward. CIRA LVT in the surface to 850mb layer
remains very impressive across NC with 200+ kg/m/s through the
state allowing for solid upslope and consistent moderate rainfall
with rates up to .5"/hr; but 850-700mb and 700-500mb southerly
flow at 40-50kts and modest veering/convergent wind profile fairly
orthogonal to the terrain will continue to support the higher LVT
through greater depth and any embedded convective cores could
still support localized 1.25-1.5"/hr totals.

The cells along the cold front should be a bit more scattered in
nature given slightly reduced deeper layer moisture but after
solid rains/totals of 3-6" earlier through the day in NC, any
additional rainfall at rates over 1"/hr and additional spot totals
of 2-3"+ are likely to reaggrivate flash flooding conditions and
expand larger streams/riverine flooding through the overnight
hours, especially as FFG values continue to drop below 1-1.5"/hr
and <2.5/3hrs in much of the MPD area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4yBHF1xz06n1VR2GqHgZyF8t3gamm0XTayCjEwVEO3KPZk5LfSQA0XwVhQDRrPwBCo1OHrhtnFqxnCtx_UmmWRlL-RI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37407959 36797929 36128004 35468042 34948078
34618099 34228132 33548221 33658288 34138344
34838356 35218322 35788249 36068195 36598137
37028064 37318007
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 04:58:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110458
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-111100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1476
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1257 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern California...Southern Nevada...Western
Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110500Z - 111100Z

SUMMARY...Post T.C. Rachel

DISCUSSION...Inner core of Post T.C. Rachel is continuing to
weaken from small embedded convective elements into a broader
shield of moderate precipitation along the downshear northern edge
coming into far SW California. However, some vorticity stretching
and localized convergent surface to boundary layer convergence
response is starting in earnest along the eastern slopes of the
Peninsular Range as a surface low spreads/stretches through in the
Lower Colorado River Valley. Conditionally unstable air supported
by the warm shallow seas of the Gulf of California are drawn
northward as MLCAPEs increase as weak CAA aloft spreads across the
Lower Colorado as well; raising from 500 J/kg toward 750-1000 J/kg
by 08z across SW AZ. Mid-level vorticity center is also rounding
the eastern side of the deeper cyclone and dPVA is helping to
sharpen an deformation zone/isentropic boundary from the center of
Rachel through the Inland Empire toward southern Nevada. Deep
layer convergence from the Southeast will further help to expand
the convective cluster currently over northern Baja California
through the Inland Empire. Total moisture has also increased
toward 1.75" though CIRA LVT in the 850-700mb layer ranges from
150-200 kg/m/s starting to enter far SE CA/SW AZ. As such rates
of 1-1.5"/hr are becoming increasingly possible especially given
any aid from upslope along the eastern portions of the Peninsular
Ranges. As such localized totals of 1.5-2.5" is becoming probable
though an isolated 3" total is possible and likely to induce
localized flash flooding given 3-6hr FFG values are generally
2-2.25".

Further downstream, as height-falls continue from SW to NE and the
deformation zone/FGEN surface begins to sharpen through S NV;
scattered narrow thunderstorms will develop but further proximity
from the low, cell motions will be more south to north or SSE to
NNW across E Riverside/San Bernadino and into W AZ. Stronger
instability and increasing wind speeds upstream will help foster
potential for back-building and therefore short periods of
repeating/training may allow for some localized .5-1" totals
eventually into S NV. This may even intersect urban Las
Vegas/Henderson and which would be particularly concerning but
overall confidence in a specific cell or two to cross the urban
center is still hard to lock down given widely scattered to
scattered expected coverage over the next 4-6hrs or so.

A more isolated nature with effective warm sector weakly rotating
cells may also manifest over the Low deserts, perhaps even Sun
Valley of westernn and south-central AZ, eventually toward the
western Mogollon Rim areas of Yavapai and Mohave counties. While
more isolated, the stronger updraft rotations may also result in
broader updraft/downdrafts to increase residency time (along with
reduced forward speed from cell rotation). Isolated spots may
result in localized flash flooding conditions across this area as
well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4ZvhqdG4-E8j_xMJInaa0zgNYjbFqe6Ypb8bH1WS5NS9Ku_9wm-RdyB-HcD-ultwQ0AHR1OUTdfK7aYPnQsabLqz7Ck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37101508 36981411 36311257 34971184 33651160
32261168 31591214 32131379 32201419 32461505
32481611 32451707 32981745 33801750 35241704
36441630
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 09:08:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110908
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-111500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1477
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Blue Ridge of Virginia, North Carolina and
northern South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110910Z - 111500Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged solid moisture flux into terrain with
occasional localized south to north moving convective elements
enhancing rates to 1"+/hr to add additional 1-2" with localized 3"
spots along Blue Ridge. Flooding likely to continue and expand in
coverage northward with time.

DISCUSSION...Impressive GOES-E WV suite shows shortwave along
eastern side has rotated north to recenter the deeper mid-level
cyclone over central KY. This is lifting the center of Isaias
northward into the Cumberland Plateau while also advancing the
cold front out of GA into the Upstate of SC. Stationary front
remains near the SC/NC border and is supporting active strong
convection though the Gulf Stream. The combination is helping to
maintain a solid low to mid-level gradient with cool conveyor belt
still fluxing enhanced moisture north of the front westward into
the terrain. CIRA LVT values are weakening slightly but remain
above 150 kg/m/s across central VA given .75-.8" advected on
30-40kts centered around 925mb. Aloft, the warm conveyor belt is
broadening and shifting axis toward the Gulf Stream and 850-500
LPW layers have seen a slow decrease; still 35-45kts of veering
southwest to southerly flow is starting to intersect the terrain a
bit more obliquely than earlier this morning and LVT values are
more around 100-150 kg and narrowing toward the western branch of
the WCB, just in advance of the cold front. As such, orographic
ascent will support a third to half inch per hour, allowing for a
broad area of 1-2" across the eastern slopes of the central
Appalachians as the triple point lifts northeastward.

Instability wedge remains about 500-1000 J/kg across SC, but is
narrowing as well given limited northward surge of the effective
warm front; convergence ahead of the front is still spurring
convective development but it remains more scattered and less
vigorous, continuous as before. Still given ample moisture, rates
of 1-1.25"/hr remain possible across Upstate SC into the Foothills
of W NC and far SW VA. Spots of additional 2-3" are possible but
more likely to be isolated to widely scattered in nature. Given
FFG values across far Upstate SC and W NC (less than .75" for all
hours) are significantly compromised, even the remaining showers
are likely to maintain flash flooding/broader riverine flooding
this morning. As the TROWAL corridor shifts eastward intersecting
into SW VA, FFG values have reduced to less than 1" for most hours
as well and exceedance is probable. However, further north into
central western VA, overall totals remain below 2" for the storm
and additional 1-3" would bring some spots closer to FFG values
but potential are less likely than further southwestward along the
Blue Ridge Range.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_N9-tsPRsGzMMHrbvErWhojc7Psq1XEQraeDToVubpXxQHDm3tBfDr8B3C6C_oMNNfTXyZqCEWcW5t0buGC0SFE4fi4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39007830 38767815 38127848 37027946 35778017
34768167 35028243 35458258 36228168 36778112
37058078 37777996 38467915 38827883
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 11:14:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111114
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-111700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1478
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111113Z - 111700Z

SUMMARY...Post.T.C Rachel continues to rapidly lift northeastward
and inland across southeast CA, with its moisture and related
heavy rainfall continuing to impact the broader Southwest U.S.
Additional areas of flash flooding are expected going through the
morning hours, with locally significant impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery, surface
observations and radar data shows the low center associated with
Post-T.C. Rachel advancing quickly to the northeast across
southeast CA. Heavy rainfall associated with an expanding
mid-level deformation zone and frontogenesis axis is seen lifting
quickly across southeast CA up through southern NV and into
southwest UT.

Some discrete areas of convection are noted south and east of the
low center impacting adjacent areas of southern CA up through far
southern NV and across central to northwest AZ. A nose of MUCAPE
values reaching 500 to 1000 J/kg is aligned with the deeper layer
southerly flow around thw eastern flank of Rachel. This coupled
with very strong 850/700 mb moisture flux and orographic ascent
over areas of higher terrain will encourage additional areas of
convection going through the morning hours. In fact, the latest
RAP analysis shows mean layer winds between 850/700mb on the order
of 50 to 60 kts impacting central and western AZ and far southeast
CA which is nosing toward southern NV and southwest UT.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching up to 1.5 inches/hour
with the stronger convective cells. However, the rapid motion of
Rachel off to the northeast over the next several hours will at
least locally mitigate the heavy rainfall threat to an extent.
Regardless, the 06Z HREF/REFS consensus would suggest an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rain near the path of Rachel, with
potential for isolated max totals near 5 inches given the very
strong moisture transport and orographic forcing/upslope flow into
the terrain.

Given the rainfall rates and totals expected over the next several
hours. Additional areas of flash flooding are expected, and the
more sensitive burn scar locations, slot canyon areas, and
normally dry washes will be susceptible to impacts which may
locally be significant.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ijys4KtTNzkk_2YV9VZ56a5vhkN_2P2lHrKtHeliS1kb81f_N-yzaZ6qZdcBQgc8Xi_BY7cxSiiZYsaPDLRm76jqIQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...LOX...PSR...SGX...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39441346 39151187 38341099 37461074 35721068
33860981 33021023 32851112 33591311 33821438
33381562 32521633 32671739 33921798 35461725
37571660 39221509
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 16:12:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111611
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-112210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1479
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast OH...Northeast
KY...Central and Western WV...Southwest PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111610Z - 112210Z

SUMMARY...Some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected going through the afternoon hours. Locally high rainfall
rates, slow cell-motions and wet antecedent conditions will likely
support some areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows
some partial clearing skies and thus an uptick in solar insolation
across areas of central and western WV and southeast OH. The upper
low associated with Post-T.C. Isaias continues to advance off to
the east across portions of the Upper OH and TN Valley region and
is expected to be moving into the central Appalachians by later
this afternoon.

This deep layer cyclonic energy will foster some modest steepening
of mid-level lapse rates over the next few hours which coupled
with an uptick in boundary layer instability should help foster an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. MUCAPE values are
already locally around 500 J/kg, and some increase in this
magnitude can be expected through mid to late afternoon. In
addition to greater coverage of convection, the increase in
instability coupled with local orographics should an increase in
rainfall rates.

The latest 12Z HREF/REFS guidance suggests some rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches/hour are likely with the stronger convective cells.
The cell-motions are likely to be rather slow, and with the aid of
orographics over the higher terrain of the central Appalachians,
some pockets of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals will be possible by
late this afternoon.

Antecedent soil conditions are quite sensitive with low FFGs and
relatively elevated streamflows from earlier rainfall. The
additional rainfall going through this afternoon will have a
stronger convective footprint that will encourage more substantial
runoff concerns at least locally. The highest HREF/REFS
probabilities of seeing FFG exceedance are over central and
western WV, but with the sensitivities more regionally that are in
place, a relatively broader concern for areas of flash flooding is
expected going through this afternoon.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7jD4n5aK7W6eCd9FuWNYNNcT0dA30e-4ZSi-qyYGl0VAcplJ3J21iDpc5BHceCesYAipWc5tjnqZn2K1urYZ6wUgw3c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40698034 40577930 39707931 38567981 37858056
37498134 37268261 37478364 38108427 38798420
39208378 39998165
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 17:01:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111700
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-112300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1480
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Northern AZ...Southeast
CA...Southern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111700Z - 112300Z

SUMMARY...Post-T.C. Rachel and an amplifying longwave trough over
the West Coast will direct exceptional amounts of moisture over
the interior Southwest today. Additional flash flooding is likely
with thunderstorms capable of producing between 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates. Locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding is
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES satellite is telling quite an active story this
morning with Rachel's moisture now fully merged with a robust
upper-level trough in the West. 12Z soundings from a pair of
Southwest sites (Las Vegas, San Diego) all showed highly saturated
atmospheric profiles with PWs that were above the 99.5
climatological percentile. Visible satellite showed solid surface
based heating getting underway in southern AZ and even in portions
of north-central AZ, where instability will gradually increase
this morning. RAP mesoanalysis shows >400 J/kg of SBCAPE has
already started to develop over much of AZ. Strong southerly flow
over AZ and into southern UT is also aiding in upslope enhanced
rainfall rates, which per MRMS 15-minute rainfall rates, suggest
just under 1"/hr rainfall rates have occurred south and east of
Flagstaff.

As instability increases, so too will the rainfall rates. The
confidence in increasing rainfall rates is helped by a highly
anomalous vapor moisture transport aloft. Both ECMWF and NAEFS
SATs show IVTs approaching 750 kg/m/s, which is surpassing the
maximum observed IVTs in the CFSR database (1979-2009). This is
largely due to SWrly 850-700mb wind that are above the 99th
climatological percentile, significantly influencing both the
moisture transport and upslope enhancement.

Combined with soils that are becoming overly saturated with each
passing heavy shower and thunderstorm, the setup is there for more
areas of flash flooding today. The latest 12Z HREF probabilities
show a concerning signal for 35-45% odds for 6-hr QPF > 100yr ARIs
around Zion Nat'l Park between 18-00Z this afternoon. The 15Z WoFS
show thunderstorms capable of producing 0.1-0.2"/5-minute rainfall
rates, indicating the potential for hourly rates as high as 2"/hr
south and west of the Mogollon Rim and on to the Lower CO Valley.
These parameters and signals all conclude that additional areas of
flash flooding are likely today, and both significant and
life-threatening flooding is possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5bOh9BKb3rrkhPh6DSRq9Zla4riEhhpBStEniW1s1poHjulsQglym5vMOKp8w7E65BqSM-FqiuNfJHAq0teg-xmqb0M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38501167 38421023 38260955 37740918 36360961
35030935 34380997 34041067 34021111 33941167
33801236 33641322 33271382 33261433 33411464
33801498 34201542 34621568 35011609 35651605
36781584 37621537 38281429 38411304
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 17:56:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111756
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-112355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1481
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Intermountain West

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111755Z - 112355Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall in association with Post-T.C. Rachel will
continue to lift north up across portions of the Intermountain
West, including areas of eastern NV, central/northern UT, and into
southeast ID. Persistent areas of heavy rain may result in some
flooding concerns this afternoon including a localized burn scar
flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W satellite imagery along with OSPO
ALPW data shows a deep plume of tropical moisture in association
with Post-T.C. Rachel continuing to rapidly advance well inland
across portions of the Intermountain West. A well-defined frontal
zone across the Great Basin will be advancing gradually east and
continuing to interact with this moisture axis and the elongating
low and mid-level vort energy from Rachel.

The combination of this moisture with convergence along the front,
along with strong orographics/upslope southerly flow in the
850/700 mb layer across the region will continue to foster areas
of heavy rainfall with some potential for embedded convective
elements. Some MUCAPE values reaching 500+ J/kg are nosing up
across southern and central UT, and this nose of modest
instability may tend to advance farther north into northern UT
this afternoon to facilitate the convective threat. GOES-W visible
satellite images due to show areas of partial clearing across
central and western UT, and the increase in solar insolation
should favor an uptick in boundary layer instability.

Enhanced 850/700mb moisture flux and the uptick in instability may
favor some rainfall rates with any convective elements reaching as
high as 1 inch/hour. The ejecting remnant energy of Rachel with
the orographics will tend to support these higher rates also being
a bit more focused over areas of higher terrain.

Additional rainfall amounts through this afternoon of up to 2
inches will be possible, and especially where any heavier rainfall
rates with convection materialize. These additional rains may
cause some areas of flooding, with there being a localized burn
scar flash flood threat.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8HM6JPcYgwcSv0bG7HzzmP7tLrgultsMs_FMsjA0erqjNvbMs4kqxgF4S6uy9ELN3I_4g_uBb8X8t62mSesuOI950NQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...PIH...RIW...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43631200 43551111 42511082 40801093 39671122
38521203 38471312 38501417 39501454 40781420
41881373 42991300
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 22:45:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112245
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-120430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1482
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
643 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Ohio Valley...Central Appalachians...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112245Z - 120430Z

SUMMARY...A strengthening area of low pressure in central Virginia
is likely to produce a pivoting axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms over soils that received 1.5-3" of rainfall today.
With rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr possible, and more urban
communities containing more hydrophobic surfaces at-risk, flash
flooding will be possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis shows a surface low over
southern WV weakening at the same time surface pressures are
lowering in the Mid-Atlantic. The 850mb low over central WV
continues its slow progression east with with elevated moisture
and theta-e levels starting to decrease as the best lift and
moisture moves east of the Appalachians. Still, its slow
progression is resulting in storm storms producing localized
rainfall rates of 1"/hr over the flashy portions of western WV.
Farther east, a warm front is slowly lifting north and west over
the DelMarVa, but is unlikely to make it west of the I-95 corridor
between DC and Baltimore.

Over the next few hours, as the surface low strengthens in central
VA, the surface-925mb flow will intersect the warm front and its
vapor transport will revolve around the 925mb low's northern and
western flank. This setup not only leads to some additional
upslope enhancement into the central Appalachians (particuarly the
Blue Ridge), but also causes surface-925mb FGEN over the I-95
corridor. 21Z RAP shows >1.5" PWs pivoting over northern VA,
northeast MD, and into the Delaware Valley at the same time that
as much as 500 J/kg of MUCAPE becomes available. Most RAP model
soundings on the 21Z HRRR show warm cloud layers between
10,000-12,000ft deep, and low-mid level RH values averaging close
to 90%.

The low pressure system exit off the coast later tonight, and the
window for slower moving storms may be a few hours at most. That
said, FFGs have dipped substantially over western and northern VA,
central MD, and even as far north and east as southeast PA with
some 1-hr FFGs under 1". University of Maryland mesonet sites show
between 2-3" of rain have fallen since midnight in central MD, and
when factoring in these storms occurring near a more urbanized
corridor from northern VA to southeast PA, there is some concern
that 1-2"/hr rainfall rates could result in localized flash
flooding this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_s35M4b3Y6BufG4aDbpR0dkJlu9s9nBr-Ifv0WDcnnRh1G37poB1bP8JtBGpx7rKmyPLxqmU5OPmp0cwPeETkPNeDx0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40187596 40167499 39637503 38517636 37927713
37347821 37417913 37608043 37968165 38328211
38928219 39528179 39267989 39567818 40077676
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 23:33:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112333
FFGMPD
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-120430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1483
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Northern AZ...Southern UT...Southeast
NV...Southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 112330Z - 120430Z

SUMMARY...The interior Southwest will continue to see scattered
thunderstorms capable of producing rainfall rates of 1"/hr atop
increasingly sensitive soils. Additional areas of flash flooding
are likely with locally significant flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...The prolonged fetch of anomalous IVTs surpassing 500
kg/m/s and PWs above the 97.5 climatological percentile will
continue into the first half of the evening. Persistent SWrly
700mb winds will continue to favor upslope enhancement along
various mountain ranges (Mogollon Rim, Zion Nat'l Park, San Juan).
CAPE levels are beginning to come down as surface based heating
decreases, but soils remain quite saturated. Southeast NV,
southwest UT, and northern AZ contain 50-75% soil saturation per
FLASH CREST with localized values topping 75%. Latest 22Z HRRR
shows pockets of >1" rainfall totals and the 18Z HREF shows low
chances (20-30%) for 6-hr QPF > 10yr ARIs in southern UT, northern
AZ, and southeast NV. Upslope enhancement may linger a bit longer
over the San Juan Mountains given their placement farther east and
downwind of the longwave trough. Additional flash flooding is
likely this evening as a result of the lingering efficient
rainfall rates and increasingly sensitive soils.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8pKDTdd8bzTR-Rj2eZnPV3-JS_5LwPlYIvz11EkpfXFiw0Vn6bKOoR0dDtuTFuwLrI7n1H1Txacjh-SdJibIYD4HsQs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39400989 39010901 38770823 38520771 38140723
37350726 37150766 37130892 36910947 36510990
35981035 35111070 34111115 33751153 33701199
33961268 34561354 35241435 36121452 36971430
37631375 38521255 39321069
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 11:57:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121156
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-121755-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1484
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Areas affected...Western and Northern AZ...Southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121155Z - 121755Z

SUMMARY...An increase in showers and some thunderstorm activity
may result in some additional areas of flash flooding going
through the morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a gradual uptick in
the coverage of shower activity across areas of western and
northern AZ in association with an ejecting shortwave trough that
is seen lifting northeastward toward the region ahead of a deeper
layer trough farther to the west.

This energy and proximity of a cold front are working in tandem
with a nose of modest instability to facilitate the convective
development. MUCAPE values are locally near 500 J/kg, and the
latest OSPO ALPW data shows a relatively focused channel of
moisture in the 850/700 mb cloud-bearing layer to promote some
relatively efficient convection for locally heavy rainfall rates.

The latest HRRR guidance and the 06Z HREF suite suggest some
additional expansion of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
going through the morning hours as the shortwave energy lifts
across the region. DPVA associated with this along with orographic
ascent over areas of higher terrain will support some localized
enhancement of the convection.

Some spotty 1+ inch/hour rainfall rates will be possible over the
next several hours, and especially across northwest AZ. The latest
hires CAMs suggest some localized swaths of up to 2 inches of rain
being possible where some brief cell-training occurs. Given these
additional rains and the sensitive antecedent conditions on the
ground, some additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.
Some of the slot canyon and burn scar locations will be at
greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Ew_rw_GpGhRgtJrel0dwD_psUY4sYGA7LfYiHwSKAf8sm1FhbjBdIjj3nI7UESH4_A_dtWKc6-WymIzbIUJGs6J5fs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38301094 37491009 36041105 34991114 34071112
33481152 33061229 33101322 33411396 34221445
35731443 36761409 37561353 38171254
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 19:05:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121905
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-130100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1485
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Areas affected...central/southeastern NV, northwestern AZ into
central UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121903Z - 130100Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible through
the late afternoon/early evening across southeastern NV,
central/northwestern AZ into central UT. Peak hourly rainfall of
0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and visible satellite imagery has
shown a steady increase in the coverage and intensity of showers
across central AZ into southeastern NV/southwestern UT over the
past 2 hours ending at 1830Z. GLM imagery also noted some embedded thunderstorms over southeastern NV at times. This activity was
located ahead of an eastward advancing mid to upper-level trough
axis extending from northwestern NV into southern CA (just west of
the Los Angeles metro). While precipitable water values have
lowered compared to 24 hours ago, they remain anomalous (+1 to +2
standard deviations above the mean) ahead of the upper trough axis
from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and much of UT.
Instability is weak however, with modest surface dewpoints in the
mid-40s to mid-50s and areas of cloud cover resulting in less than
500 J/kg MLCAPE area-wide via the 18Z SPC mesoanalysis.

Despite the weak instability, lift associated with the advancing
upper trough axis and the left-exit region of a RAP forecast upper
level jet streak from the CA/MX border into western AZ are
expected to help support the continued development of showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon and early evening hours. RAP
forecast soundings show that dry air in the upper levels will
limit the vertical extent of any showers/thunderstorms that form
but flow will remain unidirectional from the southwest supporting
repeating and training segments of heavy rainfall. Continued
surface heating should allow for a few pockets of 500+ J/kg MLCAPE
to develop into the afternoon according to recent RAP forecasts.

Peak rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in an hour (or less than an
hour) are expected where southwest to northeast axes of heavy rain
setup. Flash flooding may result given widespread heavy rainfall
over the past 24-48 hours associated with Post-T.C. Rachel which
has increased soil moisture and stream/river levels. Areas of
flash flooding may result with slot canyons, sensitive burn scars,
small streams and normally dry washes at greatest risk for impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7tK3PofAtOeh9KLuQvdPWKKht-ecVD2VKARptR0Z0WQrRGJHWKXOP0GJmPuTzI5rHVW8l7Q3-1vwkhQSSDoIAu4BXkQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40091161 39761103 39201069 38131100 36361128
35331106 34641068 34241055 33981065 33801083
33651120 33591165 33741271 34211380 35231489
36041552 37081564 37891526 38791469 39581367
40081256
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 17:01:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131701
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-132255-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1486
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...southeastern TX into western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131657Z - 132255Z

SUMMARY...A few slow moving showers/thunderstorms are expected to
impact portions of southeastern TX into western LA through the
afternoon. Slow movement and high rain rates may result in
Isolated flash flooding through 23Z.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery at 1630Z showed
cloud streets over southeastern TX into far western LA and the
early stages of shower development within a highly moist
environment. Precipitable water values were 2.2 to 2.5 inches via
15Z GPS sensor data from southwestern LA into southeastern TX and
16Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed uninhibited MLCAPE of 1000 to
2000+ J/kg across the same area. The showers were forming to the
west of a sharp moisture gradient that extended from the central
Gulf, northward into central LA...the remnants of an old frontal
boundary.

An expanding coverage and intensity of showers/thunderstorms
should be expected into the afternoon along subtle axes of low
level confluence, with some cells exhibiting slow movement. Deeper
layer steering flow was only 5 to 10 kt, oriented from the south
to southwest, of a similar orientation to the low level flow as
noted on VAD wind plots from KLCH and KHGX. 925-850 mb layer winds
of 10-15 kt are forecast to continue through much of the day,
which could support training to stationary cell movement at times.
A lack of shear under a mid to upper level ridge should limit
organization but due to the high moisture environment, hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be likely, with localized hourly
rainfall over 2 inches at times. These high rates could result in
isolated flash flooding, with urban areas or other locations of
poor drainage at most risk of impacts. Peak total rainfall through
the evening of 2 to 4 inches is expected, but isolated higher
totals may occur as seen on some of the recent hires guidance from
the 12Z HREF/REFS.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8N3u_kjYwWPAAybzwLvl6Yfv_pSKMKW3IP2e7zX2udmKceOeVDKvbnRZz-15zFfbWkf9pCz5R_JECvOCuXR-qjqL2hQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32129351 31829280 31379260 30299289 29659306
29629306 29489386 29319430 28789518 28839547
29959588 31159535 31909454
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 17:30:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131701
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-132255-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1486
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...southeastern TX into western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131657Z - 132255Z

SUMMARY...A few slow moving showers/thunderstorms are expected to
impact portions of southeastern TX into western LA through the
afternoon. Slow movement and high rain rates may result in
Isolated flash flooding through 23Z.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery at 1630Z showed
cloud streets over southeastern TX into far western LA and the
early stages of shower development within a highly moist
environment. Precipitable water values were 2.2 to 2.5 inches via
15Z GPS sensor data from southwestern LA into southeastern TX and
16Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed uninhibited MLCAPE of 1000 to
2000+ J/kg across the same area. The showers were forming to the
west of a sharp moisture gradient that extended from the central
Gulf, northward into central LA...the remnants of an old frontal
boundary.

An expanding coverage and intensity of showers/thunderstorms
should be expected into the afternoon along subtle axes of low
level confluence, with some cells exhibiting slow movement. Deeper
layer steering flow was only 5 to 10 kt, oriented from the south
to southwest, of a similar orientation to the low level flow as
noted on VAD wind plots from KLCH and KHGX. 925-850 mb layer winds
of 10-15 kt are forecast to continue through much of the day,
which could support training to stationary cell movement at times.
A lack of shear under a mid to upper level ridge should limit
organization but due to the high moisture environment, hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be likely, with localized hourly
rainfall over 2 inches at times. These high rates could result in
isolated flash flooding, with urban areas or other locations of
poor drainage at most risk of impacts. Peak total rainfall through
the evening of 2 to 4 inches is expected, but isolated higher
totals may occur as seen on some of the recent hires guidance from
the 12Z HREF/REFS.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6uk3WK0cCWCfrkKyQdCYSVPitDniHMBhRdGZbYwUAMj0uAWwg8o6c-WlQcrPxKakdh6pE2FxRt1OjJXSPmvhnyZz2EM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32129351 31829280 31379260 30299289 29659306
29629306 29489386 29319430 28789518 28839547
29959588 31159535 31909454
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 21:35:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 132135
FFGMPD
MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1487
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
534 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...northeastern TX Panhandle, southwestern OK into
KS and northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132132Z - 140330Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to develop near a
quasi-stationary front and dryline into the evening hours. Areas
of training will coincide with hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches,
leading to 2 to 4+ inch peak rainfall totals through 03Z.

DISCUSSION...21Z observations showed a well-defined
stationary/cold front extending from northern MO into
central/southwestern KS, marked by warm sector surface
temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower
70s, while surface temperatures were only in the 50s across
northwestern KS on the cold side of the boundary. A dryline
extended southwestward from the front near Dodge City into the
central TX Panhandle. SPC mesoanalysis data from 21Z showed MLCAPE
of 2000-3000 J/kg east of the dryline and south of the cold front
over KS into northern OK. Radar imagery from 2115Z showed
thunderstorms along and just north of the front over central KS
but additional storms were developing along the KS/OK border, just
east of the triple point and towering cumulus were noted farther
south into the TX Panhandle ahead of the dryline.

Surface convergence will continue to aid in the development of
thunderstorms ahead of the dryline and near the cold/stationary
front through 00Z. Beyond 00Z, RAP model guidance has shown the
low level jet across OK increasing into the 25-35 kt range through
03Z, oriented from south to north into the slowly southward
sagging cold front over KS, while the dryline begins to retreat
westward across the TX/OK panhandles. The coverage of
thunderstorms is expected to become numerous between 00-03Z, with
WSW to ENE steering flow supporting areas of training, with the
greatest training potential in KS following the frontal boundary's
WSW to ENE orientation. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches within
training axes will become likely and rainfall accumulations
through 03Z of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher possible) are
expected. These higher rainfall totals may result in areas of
flash flooding with the threat continuing beyond this MPD's
expiration into the night.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-5LlX_QJOwzGBLRPgGFvzL4buevB3gRrebvHQ94tUP4UGFppYXCgXOLSrzZQaUOsyMPkXBPdu04lJKOum7tCykVefdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40149462 40129361 39679308 39019346 38409472
37789609 36799770 35729880 35289990 35410085
35960106 37110054 37780003 38349905 38969787
39909594
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 02:47:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140247
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-140800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1488
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1045 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...Western Oklahoma...Northwest Texas...Eastern TX
Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140245Z - 140800Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for upstream back-building and
repeating through areas of recent heavy rainfall. High FFG
suggests any flooding will be localized and widely scattered with
best potential in urban centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop shows rapid warming of
convective cluster across SW portions of OK associated with a
solid bowing segment that is becoming more forward propagating
(eastward). While this is diminishing with rates reducing below
1"/hr, there remains a broad area of remaining conditionally
unstable air along the southern upwind edge. VWP and RAP analysis
also denote an increase in LLJ speed with tightening confluent
850-700mb flow that is expected to veer throughout the overnight
period. This will continue to maintain a solid deep layer
convergent flow in proximity to tap the 1000-1500 J/kg of
remaining MLCAPE. Overall total moisture aided by the convergence
will remain over 2", though most moisture is in the lowest layers
(sfc Tds in the low 70s and CIRA LPW maximized near the SW OK/TX
border). This may support rates up to 2"/hr especially if the
updrafts can broaden with time.

RADAR already shows a few scattered cells developing over the
eastern portion of the Cap Rock toward NW Texas with a few TCu
further upstream toward an isolated cell nearing Dawson county.
Given potent upstream inflow/convergence, backbuilding is expected
to maintain along the upwind edge as such, stripes of 2-3" totals
could be possible. This alone would not likely be an issue, but
with precursory 1-3" totals (mainly across Donaly to Washita
county) overall totals toward 3-4" totals may help to result in a
few possible localized but widely scattered incidents of flash
flooding through the overnight period, especially if cells track
through urban centers.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!69MXTUi28nAmf4yw8I6WNgn9N1TL4uN89gWr5Skn-PXvTSKHC66i4rz_KsRTl6mtQthbZmGTxMZ0b0okIaptpECjmdo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36679843 36349781 35749751 34819812 34029921
33610004 33730101 34410119 35300062 36489956
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 03:26:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140326
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1489
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...South-central & Southeast KS...Central & Southern
MO...Far Southwest IL...Far Northern Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140325Z - 140900Z

SUMMARY...Strong line of thunderstorms with some
repeating/training elements (mainly upstream) that could result in
spots of 2-4" resulting in localized incident or two of flash
flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis shows well defined
cold/stationary front extending from western IL across N MO toward
a weak surface wave east of KC before continuing SW toward the
main 1010 surface low near Medicine Lodge, KS. Aloft, the cold
front resides along the southeastern edge of a strong 110kt jet
streak providing solid divergence aloft along its length with
broadening diffluence along the downstream edge in MO into IL.
Along with the divergence aloft, the mean steering flow is
generally parallel to the frontal zone/divergence pattern to allow
for at least short-term internal repeating/training elements.
Further downstream along the line, 500-1000mb thickness pattern
and a bit more modest dry air aloft combine to support slightly
stronger cold pools and indirect circulation resulting in
increased southeastward propagation off the frontal zone.

Instability is fairly solid across the warm sector of southern KS
into S MO with wedge of slowly stabilizing MLCAPEs from 2000 J/kg
further upstream toward 1250 J/kg across NE MO/W IL. This will
continue to support stronger back-sheared updrafts and forward
motions especially further northeastward along the line. Narrow
ribbon of 2" total PWats pooled along the front expand toward
1.75" range across the warm sector and with solid 20-25kt
confluent inflow and instability to feed off, cores will still
support 1.75-2"/hr rates resulting in spots of 1.5-2.5" totals in
30-90 minutes. Further southwest, toward the surface low,
effective fulcrum of the convective line, strong, more orthogonal
boundary layer to 850mb LLJ will support upstream redevelopment
but also slow southward propagation to allow for increased
residency time. CIRA LVT values are steadily increasing with LLJ
increasing to 40kts, supporting flux values of 150-175 kg/m/s.
As such, rates of 2"+/hr rates for 1-2+ hours should result in a
broader stripe of 2-4" totals with an isolated higher amount not
withstanding.

Hydrologically, lowest FFGs reside along the cold front with a few
spots of 1.5"/hr near Comanche/Harper county KS, as well as
Cooper/Morgan county MO but are generally 2"/hr or even 2.5"
across portions of the drier Ozark Plateau; with similar 2.5-3" in
3hrs becoming 4"/3hrs further south. As such, potential for
exceedance is greatest in the near term, reducing with time but
there remains sufficient potential for localized exceedance
overnight, especially across south-central KS and as such,
localized incidents of flash flooding continue to be possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_2QhpO-iYn__o2XVi_ca4oq030ZIIhOKW6DgL3U7C6tcMdxqJ5vL1sEbgu6MY83LUx9GQLtFnMEYExdgMpuFZfZUUK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39869135 38959008 38299003 37479111 37099248
36709445 36349734 36709924 37289907 38259633
39419390
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 03:52:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140352
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-140930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1490
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1151 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...Western Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140350Z - 140930Z

SUMMARY...Potential for continued training/redevelopment of
thunderstorms capable of 1.5-2"/hr and localized 2-3" totals.
Given hard grounds/high rates, high run-off is likely to result in
scattered incident(s) of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Recent hours of surface observations and 3.9um SWIR
animation shows dry line that has been setup through the Pecos
River Valley has increased in westwestward retrograding through
the Stockon Plateau into the Big Bend. IR loop had shown
increased mid-level clouds in narrowing confluent low to mid-level south-southwesterly return flow out of north-central Mexico. A
subtle shortwave has lifted north into the furhtest southward
extention of the 90kt upper-level jet providing a combination of
weak dPVA and divergence aloft to further support the surface to
boundary layer strengthening convergence along the dry line. Low
level flow is very moist given Tds of mid to upper-60s are
intersecting with the return sub-tropical moisture at .5" and .4"
from 850-700 and 700-500mb layers, supporting enhanced 1.75" total
Pwats. The low level higher theta-E return and modest lapse
rates aloft, has supported MLCAPEs over 1500 J/kg and as a result
scattered Cu has recently blossomed to stronger cores across the
Big Bend of TX with overshooting tops cooling below -75C nearing
-80C.

Given the convergence, rates of 1.5-2"/hr and while there is some
modest northward steering flow the orienation of the line to the
mean flow may support short-term repeating and spots of 2-3" are
becoming more likely. Hi-Res CAMs and forcing still upstream, the
potential for additional development along the dryline is possible
and increasing toward the north through the overnight period.
Given the high moisture/rates and hard ground conditions, rapid
runoff is expected and localized flash flooding is considered
likely.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6nFQYofNBcNKCfp4vEs3uTSJLsfK0969QWJeQScMIQnOFfgdbHbaEuy7lDXIFYFMfeBkTj5TrIOuj3ZOWPuvT9gBqt8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32170296 31950227 31390211 30580229 29050292
29020360 29300406 29820463 30940415 31830355
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 07:24:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140724
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-141300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1491
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Western to
North-central Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140730Z - 141300Z

SUMMARY...Continuing isolated flash flooding risk through late
overnight period into early morning. Some back-building cells may
repeat through already flooded areas. Additional 1-3" are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Current Regional RADAR and GOES-E EIR loop shows a
weakening linear complex with subtle, storm scale outflow/bowing
segements crossing Kiowa to Logan counties in west-central to
central OK. A few isolated tops remain colder than -70C and
indicate rates up to 2", however, the overall trends are slowly
ticking downward as cluster is moving into more stable environment
across northeast OK where even MUCAPEs reduce below 500 J/kg.

However, 07z surface analysis and RADAR shows broader outflow
boundary from elevated convective complex remains favorably
oriented along the upstream edge over SW OK into the eastern
portions of the northern Texas Panhandle. VWP continue to depict
30-35kts of confluent 850mb flow in the vicinity of 100W though
remains fairly orthogonal from the south. An axis of
enhnaced/untapped unstable air remains across the Cap Rock into W
OK, where MUCAPEs remain 1000-1500 J/kg. CIRA LPW shows 850-700
and 700-500mb moisture axis aligned over this area as well, and
with Tds still in the upper 60s, overall total available moisture
remains about 2". An upstream shortwave at the southeastern edge
of the upper-level right entrance region to the jet will continue
to advance northward, maintaining the slowly veering LLJ and
provide further isentropic ascent/convergence over the outflow for
additional development. A few cells are occuring across Donley
into Wheeler county, but given satellite trends and upstream
convective activity approaching from the SW associated with the
mid to upper-level forcing, will expect further development to
occur.

Deep layer flow remains fairly steady to further support WSW to
ENE repeating/training and unfortunately is expected to be very
close to the area already affected/flooding from Collinsworth to N
Caddo county. With slightly reduced instability, convection may
still be vigorous enough to support 1.5"/hr rates and so with
potential repeating an addtional 1-3" totals are possible and are
possible to maintain ongoing flooding conditions or expand them
areally. Still, there is still sufficient uncertainty in latitude
that additional flash flooding is considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-x5JmKXB5x2NpQXEZqBxnRVLPG-S_wO8fNFKpPiOmGafdAUTJB5GF04h0_VF__50kqB-MqY34Lgw9SA8ctBL5lDkYaY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36679592 36309543 35679562 35339618 34979756
34789977 34800084 35050138 35720104 36289913
36669705
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 08:56:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140856
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-141300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1492
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...Western Texas Panhandle to Cap Rock...Southeast
New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140855Z - 141300Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convection along retreating dryline may
repeat for some time resulting in 1.5"/hr rates and localized 2-3"
totals. Isolated flash flooding remains possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV and CIRA LPW animation continue to show
narrow enhanced deep layer moisture plume extending from
sub-tropics of the western Mexican coast through E Chihuahua/W
Coahuila into Big Bend Region before connecting up to the frontal
boundary across the northern TX Panhandle. A subtle shortwave
feature within the narrow plume exists at the upstream edge of a
high-cirrus streak across E NM generally under the central canopy
of the weakening convective cluster. A few remaining cells along
the upwind edge still are tapping the remainin instability through
the Rio Grande Valley and will support continued localized flash
flooding risk as it weakens lifting northward into the more
stabilized air across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau.

Downstream of the shortwave, the dryline has retrograded well into
SE NM from near Carlsbad to east of Clovis toward Amarillo.
Slightly backed surface flow, perhaps enhanced by older convective
outflow has increased boundary layer convergence along the dryline
and remaining unstable air mass along the dryline northward toward
the surface low. RADAR and GOES-E IR show convective initiation
along the boundary and given 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE and 1.75-2"
of total PWats and 25-30kts of 850mb flux, cells will be capable
of quick 1.5" (occasionally/locally higher) rates. Northeastward
propagation may limit overall totals, but orientation of other
downstream cells could still allow a short window of
repeating/training across the northern Permian Basin into the Cap
Rock region. As such, a streak or two of 2-3" totals are
possible, resulting in isolated to widely scattered exceedance of
FFG values both at 1 (1.5-2") and 3hrs (1.75-2.5") and possible
incident or two of low-end flash flooding risk.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8mf4pM5ctIsyWJMwf5JQS4A5q-H8DxFbdDNVLmBQsDNf0bqb5oXwssMt5gm5JOQSzaFTQtiADxPiSy9TQaOZ1Bw6shk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34670070 34190037 33800060 32070164 30520289
30210405 31520421 33050334 33980280 34650199
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 13:45:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141345
FFGMPD
OKZ000-141900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1493
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
944 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141343Z - 141900Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding are likely to continue
over the next couple of hours over OK, but a lull in precipitation
intensity is expected toward 18Z. Additional rainfall totals of
2-4 inches through 19Z should be anticipated, including some
overlap with portions of western OK which received heavy rain over
the past 13 hours.

DISCUSSION...13Z surface observations and radar imagery showed an
outflow boundary extended roughly east to west across
south-central OK, with ongoing thunderstorms from western to
northeastern OK. Back to the west, an MCV was noted over the
southern TX Panhandle, tracking toward the northeast, providing
some local enhancement to the low level flow just to its east.
Infrared satellite imagery showed that cloud tops continued to
cool over portions of west-central OK as low level flow of 20-25
kt continues to overrun the outflow boundary and lingering
instability of 500-1500 J/kg remains available to sustain higher
rainfall rates. MUCAPE was locally higher as seen on the 12Z OUN
sounding with ~1850 J/kg along with 2.2 inches of precipitable
water containing mid to upper level moisture contributions
streaming north from Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific.

Short term forecasts from the RAP support southerly 925-850 mb
winds gradually weakening through 18Z by about 10 to 15 kt which
should help diminish the coverage and intensity of ongoing
thunderstorms across the region over the next 3-5 hours. However,
showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger across the
region into the early afternoon and mean southwesterly steering
flow will support areas of training with hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches at times. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are
expected through 19Z with some overlap expected with a stripe of
4-8 inches of rain that fell across western OK since ~00Z.
Therefore, areas of flash flooding appear likely to continue in
the short term, though a relative lull is forecast later this
morning.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5aDpc8X1RA1R3Gb9SXPpk5qLt29yAjKXFO5iUaoGCACKiIyuIne4tc9XsEcBz3tkwxhJ0dqOcgYFEj2IiRNKwtUdPso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36629747 36559629 36329576 35799525 34869544
34379651 34399870 34629959 34969983 35439985
35929969 36279924 36569826
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 18:48:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141847
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-150030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1494
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141845Z - 150030Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be possible across the
upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians through 01Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected with 6-hr totals of 2 to 4
inches possible (isolated higher rates/totals).

DISCUSSION...18Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed an MCV
over southeastern IN (between I-70 and I-74), tracking toward the
east, preceded by an axis of thunderstorms stretching from the
southern IN/OH border into northern KY. Farther east, a narrow
west-east axis of showers and thunderstorms was located along I-70
in eastern OH along a pre-frontal convergence axis. The
environment downstream of the eastward advancing MCV showed mostly
clear skies with a few pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE via the 18Z
SPC mesoanalysis. Precipitable water values were high along the
OH/WV border with 1.6 to 1.7 inches, but increased to near 2
inches over southeastern IN, near the MCV.

Continued heating and moisture advection within the moist
environment downstream of the MCV should allow for further
increases in instability with 500 to 1000+ J/kg becoming more
widespread across the upper OH Valley by 21Z via the 17Z RAP.
Steering flow is generally unidirectional from the west throughout
the region and while 850-300 mb layer winds were a progressive
30-40 kt, there will be some potential for cells to train with any
west-east oriented development that occurs ahead of the MCV. There
will also be some potential for west-east training over portions
of eastern KY along the southwestern flank of the MCV as it tracks
into WV late this afternoon into the early evening. A lack of
higher instability and mostly progressive storm motions are
limiting factors for flash flooding, but any areas of training
that develop will allow for hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches.
These values alone would exceed 1-hr FFG values along the OH River
into much of WV. Any stronger convection that is able to train or
repeat for over an hour could allow for some 2 to 4 inch totals
through 00Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_rCWBjGlJUh_TN-B5X4-NWpmplzzeRclGDVK-Yguq98J8LLLvw3eNAlQpM-p5eP21_VuSW5Rqw55cJYZm-vxsPW2lBg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40388086 40147945 39717925 38787960 37728107
37478291 37418582 37748649 38038652 38498607
39008529 39648427 39978341 40358213
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 20:43:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142043
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-150235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1495
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
442 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...Big Bend of TX into southwestern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142038Z - 150235Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage from southwestern TX
into southwestern OK should result in a few areas of flash
flooding through the evening hours. Training thunderstorms with
peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches is expected.

DISCUSSION...20Z radar imagery showed a few strong to severe
thunderstorms over northwestern TX (just north of an outflow
boundary) and southwestern TX (ahead of a subtle mid-level
vorticity max near the Rio Grande). These storms were located
within a corridor of highly anomalous moisture with low level
contributions from the western Gulf and mid to upper level
contributions from Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific. Total
precipitable water values ranged from 1.5 to 2.0 inches (200 to
300 percent of normal via the latest Blended TPW imagery) across
this corridor and MLCAPE was 1000 to 2000+ along and south of the
outflow boundary (via 20Z SPC mesoanalysis data).

There are two main corridors of concern over the next 6 hours. The
first is up north, along and just north of an outflow boundary
that extended from near the Red River at U.S. Hwy 271 to just
south of Lubbock. 850 mb winds of 10-20 kt will support a
overrunning component atop the rain-cooled boundary while a
forecast increase in the 850 mb flow toward 00Z is expected to
coincide with an increase in ascent and thunderstorm coverage
across western portions of TX. Mean southwesterly steering flow
will promote training axes of heavy rain at times with hourly
rainfall peaking above 2 inches at times. While this axis is
expected to remain south of a zone of heavy rain that impacted
western OK earlier this morning, at least a few areas of flash
flooding are expected to result over northwestern TX to just north
of the Red River. However localized heavy rain may still impact
the compromised areas of western OK into early tonight.

The other area of concern is farther south, where an expanding
region of thunderstorms between Fort Stockton and Odessa will
likely continue to advance north and east over the next few hours
with upstream development highly probable within the anomalous
moisture axis. Additional development is most likely along the
eastern edges of cloud cover present over parts of the Trans Pecos
region, although a few cells along the higher terrain beneath the
present cloud cover will be possible. This activity will track
northeastward with elements of training, aiding by strengthening
right-entrance region divergence in association with a jet max
over eastern NM.

The environment across western TX into southwestern OK will
support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with peak values of 2 to
3+ inches possible. Rainfall totals through 03Z of 3 to 5 inches
are expected (at least locally) with isolated higher totals
possible. Areas of flash flooding will be likely through this
evening.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ep1bNUeREDoo24ruwQtHtNYoJBOSCmobtQSLzlr74r2SmNA8g-kZma4b86F6WVpvi4CgIt8IInCwe85b48-sFgwdB0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36119820 35709758 34839747 33499847 31440020
29920194 29510254 28920305 28940345 29140392
30040425 30920409 31550362 33160243 34500190
35460059 35889952
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 03:17:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150316
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150914-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1496
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1115 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...Central OK...West TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150314Z - 150914Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms containing peak hourly rainfall
rates exceeding 2 in/hr will continue tonight. Widely scattered to
numerous instances of flash flooding are expected.

Discussion...Radar mosaic this evening depicts an MCS exhibiting a
line echo wave pattern (LEWP), which is moving eastward across
portions of central OK and northern TX. Upwind of the LEWP,
training thunderstorms are expanding in coverage near a stationary
segment of the cold pool over west-central TX. As highlighted in
MPD 1495, this complex is embedded in a favorable environment for
efficient heavy rainfall production, with low level contributions
from the western Gulf and mid-level contributions from Hurricane
Simon in the eastern Pacific. Recent mesoanalysis data suggests
PWs near the complex range from 1.7-2.0", with MUCAPE near 1000
J/kg.

Over the next 6 hours, the main axis of training will focus along
the cold pool as the low-level jet strengthens and Corfidi vectors
align favorably with the low level boundary. Strong thermodynamic
advection will result in PWs exceeding 2" and MUCAPE values in the
2000 J/kg range as the low-level jet strengthens, supporting
hourly rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr at times in the most intense
cells.

Through 9z, CAM guidance unanimously highlights the potential for
an additional 2-4" in the highlighted area. Owing to the previous
24 hours of heavy rainfall (upwards of 4-10" west of the OKC
metro), this will maintain the threat of widely scattered to
numerous instances of flash flooding. Flash flooding is considered
likely, and considerable to significant flash flooding impacts
remain possible over urban zones or areas inundated from
yesterday's rainfall.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8phFl9jXf1VfR1fzhkHfXLapEmjdlMp1Oza4UB1NxHT0JwpQRzjv2fuHhEP4iJqZBKfD1W1cKQ0g4Orrvvv40RMTvB8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37139589 35859551 33349841 31030072 29520265
29810375 31290348 33610185 35190014 36519831
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 09:21:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150920
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-151519-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1497
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
520 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...Southern Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150919Z - 151519Z

Summary...The potential for scattered flash flooding will persist
into the morning hours as showers and thunderstorms continue to
train along a slow moving outflow boundary and approaching cold
front.

Discussion...Latest analysis this morning depicts a nearly
stationary outflow boundary extending from southeast OK into
north-central TX. Along and north of this boundary, showers and
thunderstorms continue to train along an ENE axis, leading to
swaths of 1-3" of rain over the last six hours according to MRMS.

Over north-central TX, pronounced low-level inflow from a strong
low-level jet has destabilized and moistened the upwind portion of
the boundary. Recent objective analysis and RAP trends suggests a
positive 3 hr MLCAPE and PW change of 200-600 J/kg and 0.2-0.4",
respectively. This trend is corroborated by a rapid cooling of
cloud tops in a thunderstorm cluster entering southwest OK.

As such, the HREF and REFS suggest thunderstorms with max rainfall
rates upwards of 2"/hr will expand in coverage and intensity for
the next 2-3 hours along the cold pool. Some weakening of the the
low-level jet could lead to a brief lull in thunderstorm intensity
this morning, although another round of activity is expected over
the same by 14-15Z with the approach of the cold front from the
west. By then, the HRRR and RRFS suggest additional swaths of 1-3"
of rain is possible in the highlighted area, which could support
additional scattered flash flooding this morning.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_V7kGYGebC9_BNfaO9g_ar0-8IejpkEbTiQzWRu9Yjs5UbbjAlqsEDGUr54xnye75NJBc7Kx0E7CwBlMsKqhDoIuOK0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36119561 34989477 33669627 32979814 31960002
30320104 29640212 29770303 30780324 32890180
33860091 35569882
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 15:30:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151530
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1498
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...western to northwestern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151527Z - 152045Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding are expected across
northwestern TX over the next 3-5 hours from hourly rainfall of 1
to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm development is expected
between 18-21Z farther south into the lower Pecos Valley which may
trigger the start of a separate round of flash flooding.

Discussion...Radar imagery from 15Z showed an axis of showers and
thunderstorms that extended from near Midland into southwestern
OK. The highest rain rates have been located over northwestern TX
over the past 1-2 hours with hourly values of 1-2 inches via MRMS.
Overrunning of a long-lived outflow boundary in place over
northwestern TX was occurring with 10-20 kt of southerly low level
flow over western TX and 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE north of the outflow
boundary up to the Red River.

Surface observations from 15Z showed a NE to SW oriented cold
front approaching northwestern TX that connected into a surface
low near Midland. Also near Midland was an MCV, seen on radar
imagery, located about 25 miles SSE of the city, associated with
recent convective development to its north where the cold front
was approaching.

Short term forecasts show the cold front over northwestern TX will
make steady progress toward the southeast through 21Z but the
surface low near Midland will be slower to advance southeastward.
Low level overrunning and enhancement of lift ahead of the
northeastward advancing MCV will likely maintain a flash flood
threat to the north of the outflow boundary across northwestern
TX, overlapping portions of the region that have received heavy
rain over the past 24 hours. Additional rainfall totals of 1-3
inches (locally higher possible) are expected through 21Z for
portions of northwestern TX.

Farther south, as the cold front begins to move through the lower
Pecos Valley to the south of the surface low, additional
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage in the 18-21Z
time frame containing a general motion toward the northeast. Mean
southwest to northeast steering flow may promote areas of training
and flash flooding that is expected to intensify through the
afternoon. Given a high moisture environment containing
precipitable water values of 1.7 to 2.0 inches, training could
result in hourly rainfall approaching or exceeding 2 inches later
today across portions of southwestern TX.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-z3eitHjMTphcq_pj_Rdpq_Q6FktdZkoVAxG8BXvCbTxHh8VHnWV6E3bUtj1So-Nsc3gRGUEUxTFEn_9kBX82oqhy7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34549858 34289822 33209835 32089915 30999993
29760080 29470106 29700172 29660214 30060221
30940228 31950223 32650188 33530092 34239988
34459920
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 16:42:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151642
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-152230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1499
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern KY into WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151640Z - 152230Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding may occur across eastern KY into
WV through late afternoon from training and hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches. Areal coverage of any higher rain rates/impacts is
expected to remain limited however.

Discussion...A small region of showers was observed on local radar
imagery over eastern KY at 1615Z, tracking toward the east at
about 20 kt. There has been a history of embedded training of
heavy rain within the area of showers containing MRMS-derived
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches over the eastern third of KY since
12Z. According to 16Z data from the SPC mesoanalysis, eastern KY
contained ~2 inches of precipitable water and MLCAPE of 100-500
J/kg. A quasi-stationary front extended west to east from
north-central KY into southern WV and a weak rain-cooled outflow
boundary was becoming more apparent just south of the recent
rainfall in KY.

There will continue to be an isolated threat for 1-2 inch hourly
rainfall with the area of showers as it tracks into
central/southern WV over the next 1 to 2 hours, but potential for
additional shower/thunderstorm development will occur later this
afternoon into the early evening back to the west. RAP forecast
guidance shows MLCAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg for WV and near
1000 J/kg into eastern KY. In addition, 925-850 mb winds of 15-25
kt are forecast over KY into WV with an overrunning component of
the outflow and frontal boundary which may support a few widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms after 19Z. Mean westerly
steering flow could promote training and hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches within the moist environment. Isolated flash flooding may
result across the sensitive terrain of the Cumberland Plateau into
the central Appalachians.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-MReMPcNaXE35FCdqzP45jmiBVAKRd8PDeak8XFw3idvO8fsHKQ9wXN0BQ20IM7GkpZqMnEREYHSwON4Tn8ZnxCrnDI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39328025 39047940 38447928 37907960 37438029
37018207 36778405 37058460 37368468 37728464
38098447 38308409 38488296 38758227 39198118
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 21:04:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152104
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-160300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1500
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...southwestern to northern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152102Z - 160300Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding are expected across
southwestern to northern TX over the next 3-6 hours. Thunderstorm
coverage is likely to expand through 00Z with areas of training
supporting hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches.

Discussion...Radar imagery from 2030Z showed a cluster of
thunderstorms bisecting I-20 in the vicinity of Abilene, slowly
tracking toward the east near a frontal wave. Additional slow
moving thunderstorms were noted about 20 to 60 miles east and
northeast of Abilene, located along an outflow boundary that
draped eastward from the frontal wave near Abilene, across
northwestern TX before curving northeastward into southeastern OK.
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall with these thunderstorms has
generally peaked in the 1 to 2 inch range over the past couple of
hours. 20Z SPC mesoanalysis showed a corridor of ~1000 to 1500
J/kg MLCAPE that extended near and south of the outflow boundary
over northern TX to the Rio Grande near Del Rio, out ahead of a
cold front over western and southwestern TX.

The region of TX between the Rio Grande and lower Pecos Valley to
the Red River between Vernon and Denison remained located within
an anomalous stream of moisture containing PW values of 1.5 to 2.0
inches via recent GPS observations. Visible satellite imagery
revealed a number of smaller scale circulations embedded within
this moisture axis over northern Mexico, advancing northward, with
one near the Rio Grande just south of Val Verde County.

Short term forecasts show the cold front continuing to advance
southeastward through this evening, catching up with and
overtaking the outflow boundary in place over northern TX through
03Z. As peak heating combines with increasing low level
convergence in association with the approaching cold front and
subtle embedded mid-level impulses, numerous thunderstorms are
expected to develop through the evening hours from the Rio Grande,
northward. Between 00-03Z an axis of thunderstorms is expected to
be in place from the Rio Grande to northern TX, but waning
instability across northern locations will favor higher rainfall
rate potential across southern locations after 00Z. Within axes of
SW to NE training, hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be likely,
but peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ may also occur. These higher
rainfall rates are likely to result in at least a few areas of
flash flooding into the early overnight hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5-HceU9EJVkgxgGA3rkajkqgpm3rlhO4B84NR5g_5ntRQdWslpHG5N4RFUevXQRqnxfzmiAysbOGTDLrosNwGfqvwdY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34029915 33979864 33799804 33749748 33889666
33879649 33709646 33289658 32529735 31339860
30309943 29580037 29320101 29410117 29510144
29620167 29660221 30110227 31170194 32510048
33429997 33899946
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 03:13:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160312
FFGMPD
TXZ000-160900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1501
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1111 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160310Z - 160900Z

Summary...A swath of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms
may lead to some instances of flooding through the early morning
hours from the central Rio Grande to north-central Texas. The
heaviest rainfall and flash flood potential will be across
southern portions of the outlook area.

Discussion...Current Doppler radar imagery continues to indicate
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with some stronger areas of
convection on the poleward side of a slowly advancing cold front,
with an anafrontal rainfall set-up. This is due to surface to 850
mb flow from the southeast being lifted over the frontal boundary,
in an environment of anomalous PWs for October with values in the
1.7 to 2.0 inch per recent SPC mesoanalysis. The mitigating factor
is the gradually waning instability parameters, generally at or
below 500 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE, highest near the Rio Grande.
Although the overall rainfall rates have been modest in most areas
this evening, the extended duration is increasing the ground
saturation and leading to increased run-off and flooding concerns.

The latest CAM guidance suite is indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 1 to 3 inches through 9Z, and
potentially slightly higher in a few areas where convection is
most persistent. The highest values are likely to occur south of
the Interstate 10 corridor. There should be a gradual abatement
towards 9Z as instability wanes and overall forcing weakens.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4ueDNgRYm2wQX_U1cQBRQFmxsLNNRxhedOpWe5gZHLvILAwbbpG9mVwCxy-xT26zkVUfu-2HitW7hZ35_7mCmqYamqM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32519815 32329755 31779743 31229777 30259879
29999912 29579962 29160020 28960074 29240113
29620182 29390245 29600278 29960277 30350253
30550227 30750175 31070071 31509993 31959930
32399869
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 04:02:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160312
FFGMPD
TXZ000-160900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1501
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1111 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160310Z - 160900Z

Summary...A swath of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms
may lead to some instances of flooding through the early morning
hours from the central Rio Grande to north-central Texas. The
heaviest rainfall and flash flood potential will be across
southern portions of the outlook area.

Discussion...Current Doppler radar imagery continues to indicate
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with some stronger areas of
convection on the poleward side of a slowly advancing cold front,
with an anafrontal rainfall set-up. This is due to surface to 850
mb flow from the southeast being lifted over the frontal boundary,
in an environment of anomalous PWs for October with values in the
1.7 to 2.0 inch per recent SPC mesoanalysis. The mitigating factor
is the gradually waning instability parameters, generally at or
below 500 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE, highest near the Rio Grande.
Although the overall rainfall rates have been modest in most areas
this evening, the extended duration is increasing the ground
saturation and leading to increased run-off and flooding concerns.

The latest CAM guidance suite is indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 1 to 3 inches through 9Z, and
potentially slightly higher in a few areas where convection is
most persistent. The highest values are likely to occur south of
the Interstate 10 corridor. There should be a gradual abatement
towards 9Z as instability wanes and overall forcing weakens.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7daUfFFU9PTJcKv7pdTJzBI2TS1oR75RCeNQGfSvTS9gQdLhtljdmonmh8TzZ9Vq8v9IXROEZwNkVXlAAeJ9kW4Z80k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32519815 32329755 31779743 31229777 30259879
29999912 29579962 29160020 28960074 29240113
29620182 29390245 29600278 29960277 30350253
30550227 30750175 31070071 31509993 31959930
32399869
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 17:37:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171737
FFGMPD
FLZ000-172335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1502
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171735Z - 172335Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates will
develop and expand in coverage over the next several hours. A
threat for some urban flash flooding will exist along the I-95
corridor from West Palm Beach down through Homestead.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows an increasingly agitated CU/TCU field across south Florida
as daytime heating and a moisture-rich airmass pooled south of a
cold front contributes to an increasingly unstable boundary layer.

MLCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and this
coupled with PWs approaching 2.25 inches as noted in the 12Z MFL
RAOB sounding will promote an environment conducive for developing
areas of convection capable of producing high rainfall rates. Very
high WBZ heights (locally over 14,000 ft) and the depiction of a
deeply tropical sounding will support highly efficient processes
to elevate these rates.

The catalyst for convection will come from the low-level forcing
associated with the approach of a cold front from the north, and
also proximity of a pre-frontal surface trough much closer to the
I-95 corridor of southeast FL. Convective initiation is imminent
along this surface trough as seen in visible satellite images and
LightningCast data. Radar already shows some thunderstorms
especially around Fort Lauderdale and near Miami that are
beginning to produce some heavier rainfall rates in just the last
30 minutes.

Expect additional expansion of convection over the next several
hours across south Florida as low-level convergence interacts with
the increasing instability. Some mesoscale outflow boundary
interactions will be possible as well in time.

The latest hires HREF/REFS consensus suggests rainfall rates may
reach as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms, and
with slow cell-motions, some spotty storm totals by this evening
may reach 3 to 5 inches. Generally, this should support a concern
for some urban flash flooding along the I-95 corridor from West
Palm Beach on down through Homestead.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9T-59H-YfDmfjuKjdErLUJyqzEplIQDLHJ0Nii9Ot24Qhhj3q2g4Qgl4F2dVggAE8S_FMldsEb2KQihGI0ohQ5JDDyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27138004 27047983 26537978 25757996 25448018
25378055 25718082 26148078 26658058 27038031
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 03:38:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 180337
FFGMPD
FLZ000-180700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1503
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180335Z - 180700Z

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates
developing over the coastal waters will affect coastal portions of
South Florida through the early morning hours. A threat for some
urban flash flooding will exist along the I-95 corridor from West
Palm Beach southward to Homestead through 3 am local time.

DISCUSSION...A complex of nearly stationary thunderstorms has
developed between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach with
convergent low level flow near a cold front. Although most of the
heaviest rainfall has been just 5-10 miles offshore, some of the
heavier rainfall rates have begun to move inland near Deerfield
Beach, with reports of 4 inch per hour rainfall rates from private
observing stations. This will be enough to overwhelm drainage
systems in the area, and could result in localized but impactful
flash flooding through 3 am local time. Increasing coastal
convergence may result in an expansion of this complex of storms
and affect more of the neighboring towns.

The latest CAM guidance is quite varied in placement of the
greatest QPF maxima, with the RRFS likely underdone with amounts,
and the HRRR more reasonable with placement of ongoing convection.
The potential exists for 4-7 inches of rainfall where these storms
persist the longest, especially over northeastern Broward and
southeastern Palm Beach counties, and this could easily result in
some instances of flash flooding.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9klmHTwybN8vEWIESZ3fX00sC9mjN1zcFJah7hkQf1UXdBu5PuYYFMMYgZ-gNga2ntL-X9bX7Erko9zw0zbgGxBPyFk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26918015 26838000 26567994 26008004 25638022
25748046 25948044 26318033 26648035 26818027
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 07:15:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 210715
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-211300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1504
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...North-Central Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210713Z - 211300Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity over the next several hours across much of
north-central Arizona. Some of the stronger storms may produce
rainfall rates exceeding an inch per hour that could result in
some instances of flash flooding through 13Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating an increase in
convection across central Arizona that is moving in a general NNE
direction. The atmosphere is becoming more conducive for
additional storms as PWs rise into the 1 to 1.5 inch range and
mixed layer CAPE climbs into the 500-750 J/kg range based on
recent SPC mesoanalysis. This will allow for increasing coverage
and organization over the next few hours, along with rates
approaching or slightly exceeding an inch per hour.

Recent CAM guidance remains varied on the magnitude of QPF
expected, with the ARW and the NAM conest indicating the potential
for some swaths of 1 to 2 inch amounts, whereas the RRFS and HRRR
are generally lower with expected amounts. If rates become heavy
enough with multiple rounds of storms, some instances of flash
flooding will be possible.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!503bHph6kWtUBlsuXK_ZrqAJdZY77DCHognivL8A9H2u7Vo7ce9JE7nwmcI5pUZ-Ubm8cXEZQ5KG0Q8tkYBjg-72uow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37191068 37120967 36460938 35330985 34441037
33891078 33741149 33721208 34121258 34721253
35831226 36951157
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 12:58:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211258
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-211830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1505
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...West-Central to Northern Arizona...Far Southern
Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211300Z - 211830Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for back-building/repeating
thunderstorms continues through diurnal minimum in instability.
Additional streak or two of 1-1.5" totals crossing areas having
received 1-2" continue to pose possible localized flash flooding
concerns through morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows anomalous closed low off the SW
California Coast continues to slowly advance northeastward with
increasing dPVA throughout the southwest while the area of concern
downstream remains along the western edge of a confluent moist
warm conveyor belt emanating from the subtropical Eastern Pacific.
CIRA LPW/LVT suite along with RAP analysis notes that slightly
veered surface to 850mb moist flow comes from the higher moisture
from the shallow/warm Gulf of California northward concurrent with
850-500mb layers coming more northward from a further south source
in the main ocean area south of Baja California. Total PWats up
to 1.5 through the SW Deserts of Arizona spread northward with
1.2-1.3" spreading over the Mogollon Rim into the western San
Francisco Plateau. Moderately unstable mid-levels support 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE along the interface of the sharp western gradient
of the moisture plume (and eastward) from the Colorado River
eastward.

Aloft, the sub-tropical jet axis slowly turns anticyclonically in
proximity to Sun Valley into the southern SF Plateau providing a
broad area of diffluence aloft within stronger overall flow.
Effective bulk shear over 50kts due to speed and low level veering
support organized low level convergence and eventually organized,
rotating updraft potential. As such, the upwind edge across NW
Maricopa into Yavapai county has seen flanking redevelopment
through the morning with KIWA RADAR further hinting upstream
weaker returns indicative of higher elevated TCu/castellaus that
has not tapped lower level moisture convergence/instability but
has the upper-level dynamics to support those updrafts. As such,
expectation is further development through the morning even in the
diurnal minimum of instability.

Given the overall moisture/convergence especially if updrafts are
rotating (like those currently in the vicinity of Flagstaff) may
support 1-1.5"/hr rates. Deep layer stronger flow, cell motions
are quick even with slightly slowing due to rotating updrafts,
local duration will limit overall totals. As such, it is required
for repeating tracks to result in localized 1-1.5" totals to
support potential localized flash flooding concerns. However,
given the placement of the upper-level support and slow change
appear to be probable through the morning. Additionally, expected
tracks may cross those that have received 1"+ localized totals
already this morning further helping the possibility for isolated
to widely scattered possible incident(s) of flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_EjmNpzJ43_DAMCA_Pe0H4h9QwENm70owYvpcFMMDf6ymPUY537izR-oJ7ASZbaKkPIVZy4QBzoymSPvekZkL2e9BgQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37841088 37650982 36820949 36050983 34801092
33851231 33591341 34151369 35471347 36801290
37651195
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 15:17:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211517
FFGMPD
CAZ000-212100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1506
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1116 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern California and the Channel
Islands...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211515Z - 212100Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective potential with isolated slow
moving cells capable of 1-1.5"/hr. Localized 1-2" totals near
urban or steep terrain may pose localized flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows very strong, broad closed low
centered near 35.5N126W with a series of peripheral
shortwave/vorticity centers lifting along the eastern and northern
quadrants with the latest lifting north along 121W north of 30N
but in sufficent wake of the prior to support a broadening of the precipitation/stratus shield within the isentropic ascent portion
of the WCB crossing the warm fornt that remains well southwest of
the Channel Islands. Yet, CIRA LPW/LVT show a slug of enhanced
sub-tropical moisture in the 700-500mb layer coincident with this
diffluent shield supporting 75-100 kg/m/s moisture flux with
trailing similar flux values in the 850-700mb layer approaching
the Channel Island while the surface to 850mb remains in the warm
sector along 120W with values of .75" for that layer with totals
of 1.5". The shield of 1.25" has reached the SW California coast
from SBA to W Ventura. As such, broad shield precipitation has
started to filter into western Transverse Range with .25"-.33"/hr
rates expected to maintain due to orographic ascent.

Otherwise, the instability is the limiting factor at this point,
however, this is expected to increase throughout the day as CAA
aloft will overspread the approaching warm sector though the
California Bight toward the Transverse counties. What is
interesting, is slight temperature gradient noted off the LA/SD
coasts shows about 5 degree temp, difference that modified
soundings from the RAP is supporting a slight 500-750 J/kg of
SBCAPE along the upwind edge of the warm conveyor belt. As a
result a narrow band of convection has developed over E Santa
Barbara county and numerous backyard observations are reaching
.75-1" within the last 30 to 60 minutes. RADAR shows that the
band is weakening with time as it moves ashore, but recent HRRR
solutions suggest a southeastward expansion along the leading low
level confluence/convergence band in the Bight that slowly shifts
eastward toward Ventura county. Localized .5-1" totals in
short-duration may pose a localized flash flooding/rapid
inundation flooding concern for the coastal urban locations but
overall most areas will see this as beneficial or preemptive
toward later activity.

The aforementioned vorticity center is strengthening the triple
point currently near 33N121.5W and will drive further WAA
northward through the channel islands, with the CAA
aloft/steepening lapse rates instability is expected to rise
toward 1000 J/kg (locally 1250 J/kg) and the strengthened low
level response to the mid-level wave should focus further
convergence for convection to develop in proximity to the fronts
as they lift north. This will given an opportunity for slow moving/back-building but narrow convective cores to approach SW CA
coast and western Channel Islands. Rates of 1-1.25"/hr are
possible and localized 2" totals may be possible through 21z,
particularly through the lower slopes of the Transverse range
where orographic ascent will further contribute to prolonged
moderate rainfall.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_hWfiYexXrRMMPtx1ZGhZZxYtmikm1MmVarR8MYOJrnJmdR-SnUDYaxtRfDElF2eX_6wlnNSgJeHedS92tKD4Qiy7UQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35652036 34801942 34171757 33161790 32761837
33201956 34252066 34982079 35582103
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 18:14:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211814
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-220000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1507
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Four Corner Region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211815Z - 220000Z

SUMMARY...Strong widely scattered thunderstorms within Warm
Conveyor Belt will continue to be capable of quick .5" with
possible repeating for isolated streaks of 1-1.5" totals.
Isolated flash flooding remains possible through evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a dual core sub-tropical jet
structure across the Desert Southwest as stronger 110kt polar jet
presses eastward. This is providing large scale
divergence/diffluence across much of the area of concern, though
greatest magnitude resides over S UT/far N AZ as a bit of
shortwave ridging from SE to NW from NM into S UT, results in
increased right entrance region ascent; with braoder diffluent
split in polar/sub-tropical jet remaining along the UT/NV line.
This broad ascent continues to accelerate low level moisture flux
out of the sub-tropical eastern Pacific with dual fetch noted in
the lower layers of CIRA LPW out of the Gulf of California
aligning with mid-level flow out of the SSW to reach 1.25-1.5"
total PWat values across S AZ into the San Fransisco Plateau, at
or above record moisture values and flux.

While the strength of the mid-level flow is very strong with mean
cell motions at 30-50kts, effective bulk shear around 65kts
continues to support strong rotating updrafts that will help to
slow forward motions for right moving updrafts, to aid some
residency time for the stronger cores. Insolation has also
increased through breaks in the clouds to increase instability
across the area with 1000-1250 J/kg CAPEs starting to be analyzed
with reducing CINH. As such, an increase in convective activity
both in coverage and vigor has been noted in GOES-E Vis and
cooling tops. Stronger rotating updrafts will also support
increased directional and isallobaric influenced flux convergence
to enhance rates to over 1.5"/hr allowing for quick .5" totals
expected with faster cell motions. This alone could be an issue
for flash flooding within the slot canyons and near burn scars.

However, the key to wider/less localized flash flooding will
remain with favored training/repeating tracks and this appears
plasible given the current orientation of convergence/confluence
streaks already noted parallel to the mean flow within the warm conveyor/upper-level cirrus canopy. As such, widely scattered to
scattered incidents of 1-1.5" totals remain possible, perhaps
intersecting areas affected by earlier rounds this morning. As
such, flash flooding remains possible through the remainder of the
afternoon into evening with slow eastward expansion of the
streaks, while the upwind edge of the warm conveyor belt remains
fairly stationary just east of the CA/AZ border and along the
NV/UT line.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4OlwYUudnWP3CwnYz_qaBIjPxUNhvVICnC-TZ5TVQNdguu0vA5fannKXuHjvXpdyvJdH5SJff_qSGmO-7_qJ9XVdjmk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38601031 38280805 37510722 36330732 34940856
33660986 33271140 33311272 33981370 35491432
37141453 38481406 38551264
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 21:02:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212102
FFGMPD
CAZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1508
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212100Z - 220300Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy rainfall potential will continue across
the Transverse Range and adjacent coastal areas of southwestern
California over the next several hours. Rainfall rates between
0.5-1"/hr are possible, allowing for isolated to widely scattered
flash flood chances into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Current upper level progression over the Pacific has
allowed for prevailing onshore flow with a defined diffluent axis
positioned right into the southern-third of California. PWATs
remain above normal within the coastal plain and adjacent terrain
encompassing the area with the most notable moisture advection
oriented orthogonal to the terrain between Big Sur down to the
northern half of the Transverse Range. Short range guidance
continues to signal the prevailing flow into the terrain with
up-slope enhancement just inland of the immediate coast leading to
pockets of 0.5-1"/hr rainfall rates plausible in the setup.
Currently seeing rates topping out just under the 0.5"/hr
threshold, however, the best ascent is currently located just off
the coast with a stronger mid-level perturbation pivoting just
away from the southern California coastal plain. This trend will
slowly shift eastward as the upper level progression allows for a
better push of the mid-level energy into the area after 00z. This
is consistent within the short range suite and associated
ensembles leading to a more defined heavy rain depiction as we
move into the evening and beyond.

Recent HREF probs for >1" remain modest (40-60%) across areas from
Orange county, northward through Los Angeles, however, a general
max between 60-90% does exist over the northern area of the
Transverse Range centered near and northwest of Santa Barbara.
This is the area most likely to see totals between 1-2", locally
higher over the next 6 hours with areas south the beneficiaries of
the heavier rainfall later in the evening. Considering the signal
in place, flash flooding will remain possible along the coastal
ranges of Southern California with the inland topography and
coastal facing slopes the most notable areas for the risk,
especially within any burn scar remnants within the terrain.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Pa8vGaZ1jzzpTKoXmoUcfEC_cK7j8UI822PQ1Skta-fFMIp1or0uM4NZNaDQtd-89St3VbCzZ6Ett6pl9VgLuTu0dQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35031895 34931863 34821837 34671818 34541796
34361765 34021739 33671724 33391712 33131702
32921709 32931737 33171772 33391810 33481824
33561851 33681891 33831917 34091979 34242018
34672036 34892001 34941965
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 00:01:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 220000
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-220558-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1509
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Much of Arizona, Southern Utah, and the Four
Corners

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 212358Z - 220558Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall potential will continue across portions
of the Southwest U.S over the next several hours. Rainfall rates
between 0.5-1"/hr, locally higher, are possible, allowing for
scattered flash flood chances into the evening.

DISCUSSION...The general synoptic pattern remains favorable for a
continued threat of heavy rainfall into the Southwest CONUS with
an emphasis on areas of northern AZ, southern UT to the Four
Corners. Prevailing southerly flow on the leading edge of a deep,
closed upper low off the California coast will allow for a broad
axis of elevated moisture advection and sufficient shear to
maintain a steady projection of convective development over the
region. Several waves of thunderstorm activity have allowed for
multiple areas to breach 1" of rainfall over the course of the
period with several locations pushing closer to 2" in assessment
of the latest obs across northern AZ into southern UT. Expectation
is for the threat to continue this evening with a viable consensus
in the CAMs for the threat to last even into the early morning
hours.

Latest HRRR/RRFS outputs signal locally heavy precip potential
over northern and northeast AZ into southern UT, extending into
the Four Corners as flow between 850-700mb backs into the terrain
centered over this region. With sufficient buoyancy on the order
of 500-1000 MLCAPE situated over the area, along with regional
bulk shear between 40-60kts, organized convective clusters and
long lasting mesocyclonic activity will be a feature within this
setup leading to prolonged threats of heavy rain at any given
juncture. HREF probabilities for >1" additional precipitation
overnight remain very elevated at 60-90% for much of northern AZ
into southern UT, overlapping more flash flood prone areas
littered across this particular region. This was more than enough
of a depiction, along with the current thermodynamic and kinematic
posture to outline a continued threat for flash flooding heading
into the evening.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9QSXnzVO3fF3z6U7bhvh0kp6dKUsflBum7pBeSWiFetJMla5qHck8jmLCvOLvC77BZMdE_SfiHfZ69HNS3xKafOjTK0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38161338 37811138 37800986 37910880 37660827
37110764 36460735 35410757 34250876 32910961
33021168 33851260 34391381 35311442 36471443
37511406
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 03:00:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 220300
FFGMPD
CAZ000-220854-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1510
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Southwest California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220254Z - 220854Z

Summary...Slow moving upper low off the California coast will
continue to usher in Pacific moisture with an upslope enhancement
into the coastal terrain of Southern California. Rainfall rates
upwards of 0.5-1"/hr are expected leading to isolated to widely
scattered bouts of flash flooding over the Transverse Range.

Discussion...Recent WV satellite indicates our upper level
disturbance slowly pivoting southeast with a strong low-level
moisture flux beginning to enter into the immediate California
coast to the northwest of Santa Barbara. This is likely the
encroachment of the warm front analyzed off the Southern
California coast which will drive eastward over the course of the
evening leading to a short term enhancement of the precip within
proximity of the front as it migrates along the coast. 925-700mb
flow is currently orthogonal to the coast and coastal terrain just
inland leading a likelihood of effective upslope enhancement along
the southern facing slopes of the Transverse Range situated north
of the coastal regions from just northwest of Santa Barbara,
eventually working into the San Bernardino mountains to the east
of Los Angeles. Current hi-res depictions indicate a period of
heavy rainfall within the terrain influenced regions with QPF
distributions between 1-2" additional rainfall anticipated for
these areas just inland.

Remnant burn scars and complex terrain drainage will likely be the
more focused areas for flash flooding potential this evening into
the overnight period. The forward propagation speed of the front
will be the driving force behind how prevalent the flash flooding
threat will be within the coastal terrain which models are leaning
towards a short term burst, rather than persistent banding that
typically coincides with more appreciable impacts. In this case,
the forecast is for possible flash flooding with an emphasis on
those more sensitive areas in the terrain.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4KwgUSi50Ca1-BrcgNEQytN5k2NAMMtlk_xsAUlNtwGYehl9hOuJgSy9rgOzm-o5iMgk8Kbf0M1-KHLMQMrc1-DFl9g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35112062 35102013 35001993 34841946 34911889
34891847 34881821 34781775 34641746 34191713
33781718 33311696 33061700 32771689 32461718
33001773 33211826 33491893 33791972 33972011
34292088 34862088
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 09:29:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 220928
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-221527-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1511
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
527 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...AZ into southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220927Z - 221527Z

Summary...Convection streaming northward across central/northern
Arizona into southern Utah will pose an isolated to scattered
flash flood threat through 15Z. While quick cell motions have
generally kept hourly totals under 0.5 inches, high short duration
rates over increasingly saturated ground will drive runoff
concerns, with the potential for linear training bands to produce
locally significant impacts in sensitive terrain.

Discussion...A broad plume of deep tropical moisture is streaming
northward across the Southwest ahead of a mid/upper level low
tracking into California. This moisture advection has pushed PW
values to near or at record levels for mid to late October across
a wide corridor. Despite being near the typical diurnal minimum in
instability, thermodynamic profiles remain unusually buoyant, with
CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg across portions of Arizona and hovering
near 500 J/kg into southern Utah.

Convective activity across Arizona is expected to persist and
gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the early
morning hours. This will be driven by strengthening large scale
forcing for ascent from the west as the upper low approaches,
combined with the eastward progression of the low level moisture
transport axis into central Arizona. Convective elements
developing within this corridor will continue to stream rapidly
north northeastward into southern Utah.

To this point, fast storm motions to the north-northeast have
largely kept hourly rainfall totals in check, generally below 0.5
inches. However, short duration rainfall rates remain quite high
within the convective cores. Furthermore, antecedent rainfall over
the past 24 hours has left conditions increasingly saturated and
hydrologically sensitive across the region. Consequently, even
quick moving cells will be capable of generating localized flash
flood concerns. As convective coverage expands and instability
gradually ticks upward this morning, cumulative rainfall totals
will steadily mount over Arizona and southern Utah.

The deep unidirectional southerly flow supports localized training
and backbuilding, particularly across central Arizona at the nose
of the low level moisture transport axis and along the sharpest
instability gradient. Several recent HRRR/RRFS runs have indicated
this potential, highlighting a corridor between Phoenix and
Flagstaff favored for training convection capable of producing
rates exceeding 1"/hr. Even in southern UT where hourly rates
remain under 1 inch, recent HRRR runs depict some FFG exceedance
developing by 10-12Z, with spatial coverage expanding through mid
morning. While the FFG exceedance footprint is somewhat delayed
across Arizona, HRRR TLE exceedance probabilities climb by 12Z as
linear training bands may begin to organize.

Overall, at least isolated to scattered flash flooding is
considered likely through 15Z. Given the broader synoptic
evolution and diurnal heating, this threat will likely continue
beyond 15Z and may ultimately peak later in the day. Locally
significant flash flood impacts are possible, especially across
complex terrain, slot canyons, and sensitive drainage basins.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5Wr_9h1eFs2lW_4OGLjAIg1e7Bv2fiu6iVshmclhTAWCbuNNIGiM3eGNdiob1L9BLn-ipgAal_GKnWGjHL9_g-vHxyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38521171 38421056 38230994 37780936 37010927
35410937 34360935 33410948 33321014 33401072
33431181 33701262 34851307 35801325 37771314
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 13:17:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221317
FFGMPD
CAZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1512
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
916 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221315Z - 221900Z

SUMMARY...Shallow, narrow updrafts capable of efficient rainfall
production and rates up to 1"/hr may pose scattered focused flash
flooding concerns due to recent soil saturation and within urban
centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite denotes core of the seasonally
anomalous deep upper-low just west-southwest of Cape Conception
but appears to be transferring energy/center toward dominant
shortwave rounding the southern base of the low into the
California Bight. This is helping to steepen the older surface to
mid-level occlusion along the northwest edge of the deep cyclone
as it starts to slide southeastward, providing some increased
convergence along it, though also helping to tighten the gradient
to enhance southerly onshore flow along Santa Barbara, Ventura
counties.

Steeper lapse rates aloft/CAA and modestly warm lower layers
support increased SBCAPEs toward 1000 J/kg through the
southeast/WAA quadrant of the the larger system. Onshore increase
of winds to 10-15kts noted in VWP gain the frictional convergence
of the coast and further orographic ascent from the southern
slopes of the Transverse Ranges resulting in scattered convergence
sufficient for convective development. Regional RADAR and 3.9um
SWIR loop from GOES-W denote this well, with narrow updraft,
shallow CB development in the last few hours along the coast.
CIRA LPW shows modest remaining .3 and .5" LPW values for the
lowest layers (sfc-850, 850-700mb) for modest rainfall efficiency
perhaps supporting rates up to 1", though the broadness of the
updraft will be the greater determining factor for greatest rate
potential.

Residency time will be the driver for the greatest totals, . Given
the slow transfer of energy/center of the deep cyclone; eastward
propagation will be very slow and given consistent convergence
location on the cells upwind flank, back-building/regeneration of
updrafts will likely result in those 30-60 minute time frames and
result in the totals of 1-1.5" range though widely
scattered/focused locally due to the spacing/size of those updraft
cores. There is some potential given the orientation of the coast
line that a slow drift from the east will move through areas
affected by prior smaller cores especially across Ventura into Los
Angeles county with time.

Isolated flash flooding may be possible given recent moderate to
heavy rainfall yesterday (1-2+" totals) and urban areas generally
limiting infiltration of these higher rates. MRMS Flash unit
stream flows are already locally over 200-300 cfs/smi, providing
further confidence that higher values will be reached over the
next few hours locally.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5DNhS3fT62Jp5kvPHh5nJ2QjJgLVX2R_4Y-HTqnWB7tu9oJZG4GEknh-isqRTfGyU9HVv40Cjb-xARvd6agec9iQF0g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35592055 35372012 34861961 34661925 34501835
34341721 33811685 33271698 33481791 33271839
33601901 33751965 33892029 34432078 34982106
35552115
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 15:20:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221520
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-222100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1513
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...S Utah...SW Colorado...NW New Mexico...Much of N
& E Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221520Z - 222100Z

SUMMARY...Wide-spread incidents of localized flash flooding remain
likely as increasing moisture/heating will support additional
convective development in bands capable of sub hourly .5-1" totals
and with repeating resulting in spots up to 2".

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows inner core of the 3.5 standard
anomaly low is starting a solid eastward shift over the last few
hours resulting in eastward height-falls in the Lower Colorado
River Valley and eastward shift of the strong 100kt 3H jet core
out of S NV/SE CA and combined with the final exit of the
sub-tropical jet core across N UT/NW CO continues to support a
broad area of diffluence/divergence across the Four Corners area,
though helping to spur eastward advancement of the tight 850-700mb
moisture core into west-central AZ toward the AZ/NM line by 00z
tonight; with veering flow further enhancing directional
convergence in the low levels over the next few hours. CIRA LVT
continue to show due confluence in the 850-700mb layer over S AZ
while peaking across the 700-500mb layer through central AZ into S
UT with values still remaining over 125-150 kg/m/s) aiding to
efficient rainfall production when there are convective elements.
However, this flux into steeper terrain (especially the San Juan
Mtns in SW CO) will provide prolonged moderate rainfall due to
orographic ascent (Atmospheric River style rainfall/flooding
concerns).

However, increasing solar heating through broken layers
(especially west of the current convective core/shield in NE AZ/NW
NM) will increase instability from 500 J/kg (S UT/N AZ) and
isolated 1500 J/kg (south-central AZ), reaching 1000 to over 2000
J/kg by 18-20z. This will allow for scattered thunderstorm
development along the north-south confluence/convergence bands
noted well in the GOES WV and IR/Visible animation. Currently,
isolated cooling tops can be seen within the diffluence arc from
SW UT across N central AZ toward central AZ Valley...eventually
will reach similar mature appearance as active convection along
the leading edge of the deep moisture/instability currently from N
Graham, AZ county to SW McKinley county. Bulk shear remains well
above normal with broad 40+ kts across the entire area, suggesting
better organized rotating updrafts are probable further increasing
localized moisture flux and rainfall production efficiency.
Localized rates in excess of 1.5"/hr are possible but like prior
days, cell motions will be quicker and residency will be limited
to a sub-hourly periods but a quick .5-1" still could pose
localized flash flooding concerns given recent tracks of heavy
rainfall (broad 1-2+") totals over the prior days.

While eastward propagation of the south to north bands of
thunderstorms will be quicker than prior days; some repeating is
possible and spots up to 2" by 00z may be expected. These widely
scattered incidents obviously will pose the greatest potential for
flash flooding conditions. The overall coverage of thunderstorms
will be great enough to have above average confidence in likely
incidents of flash flooding through this afternoon, though
incidents are equally likely to widely spread throughout the area
of concern and locally focused in nature. Impacts in slot canyons,
burn scars and urban settings would be greatest.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!46KexDNITs3NkvpIYrsKMEP_PFFqpJmH5PN5rhIhjpCZ0SeeamqeVxI9NN-BSoZ84k2XUUB6a3hCZObJKIzAK_5_Cqk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39301166 39010946 37550726 35670753 33770875
32351006 33141131 33591250 35471271 36971365
37991387 38971331
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 19:56:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221956
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1514
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Arizona..Northwest New Mexico...Southern Colorado...Far Southeast Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222000Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...Favorable southwesterly flow regime with sub-tropical
moisture supporting the development of multiple south to north
convective lines this evening. Slow eastward propagation and
potential overlap/repeating near the AZ/NM line may support spots
of 2"+ totals though each cell may be capable of quick .5-1"
sub-hourly total resulting in broad area of potential localized
flash flooding incidents.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible imagery shows an
increasingly solid multi-celluar convective complex with some
developing bowing segments from NE Rio Arriba to E McKiney to the
NE Catron/Central Cibola county line with a few developing TCu
through the Mogollon Mountains in western NM. Stronger
southeasterly flow along the flanking portion of the line at
10-15ks is advecting moderate mid-50s Tds and steadily increasing
unstable air as temperature start to rise to the low 80s
supporting increasing SBCAPEs in the 2000+ J/kg range along the
flanking line slowly reducing toward 500-1000 J/kg along the
central CO/NM line. This will support moisture flux convergence
with forward propagation may limit residency to support sub-hourly
.5-1" totals. This may result in localized flash flooding for the
most prone locations, but at best will saturate the upper soil
profile for later convective activity.

Upstream in the wake of the prior line, sub-tropical moisture axis
has shifted eastward into the eastern third of AZ with a solid
wind shift noted from surface across the Sun Valley toward Tuscon
Metro area further increasing moisture flux convergence with the
secondary band. Instability axis is also starting to align with
the q-axis with MLCAPEs reaching 2000 J/kg in SE AZ slowly
reducing to 1000 J/kg further north into the San Francisco and
Colorado Plateaus of E AZ. Total Pwats of 1.0 to 1.4" (in lower
terrain) remain in the 99th percentile and about 4 standard
anomalies from normal. Combined with the very strong divergence
aloft on the eastern side of the 90-100kt 3H jet allows for strong
convective response over the next few hours. This has begun
across north-central AZ toward the Mogollon Rim with a slowly
filling convective line; while convective initiation is starting
to occur across E Gila/Pinal counties starting to reach NW Graham
county.

Given thermodynamic and even dynamic parameters in place, this
should support strong instantaneous rates in excess of 2"/hr.
However, like most convection this week, cell motions will likely
be greater than 30-40kts, limiting residency and resulting in
sub-hourly totals of 0.5-1". Cell motions from south to north
generally parallel to the convective line may still may allow for
some short-term repeating/training given cell motion is more
though eastward propagation due to approaching height-falls,
should limit this to an hour or so. As such, a spot or two of 2"
remains plausible. Additionally, this second line may eventually
overlap with areas already having 1" from the prior line this
afternoon as the second line approaches the AZ/NM line. As such,
incidents of flash flooding are likely, though will be more widely
scattered within the overall MPD area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Rg2ls-aMfqiGGSxJDB43W3Lyo7EgMyWHcsiQJ8vlAOFRC_Ubg_Qe8uW4ltzB1TXZ9Cp5svmfjG4gg1AOduLzg4wQXM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38390694 37560585 37020465 35590562 34690668
33870740 32100911 32161050 33761068 34981165
36501057 37990882
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 21:19:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 222119
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-230317-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1515
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Nevada, Northwest Arizona, and Southwest
Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222117Z - 230317Z

Summary...Continued threat of heavy rainfall across northwest
Azizona into southwest Utah and southeastern Nevada as scattered
thunderstorms move over the area from the south. Rainfall rates
between 0.5-1"/hr are plausible leading to potential isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The threat across the canyon areas of UT and AZ will
continue for at least another 4-6 hours before we finally start
scaling back on the potential with the upper level evolution to
the west finally pushing the deep moisture advection regime
further downstream. The current radar/sat composite indicate
another round of convective development within the terrain focused
across northwest AZ, sliding north into southwestern UT within the
mean southerly flow situated on the eastern periphery of the upper
level circulation. Mid-level heights continue to prog a broad
diffluent axis right over the northern half of AZ into the Four
Corners with the western periphery of the deep layer moisture and
jet dynamics still situated over the sensitive canyon regions in
each state. This area has already seen a plethora of rainfall and
subsequent flash flood warnings the past 24-36 hours, so antcedent
conditions remain favorable for flood prospects through the early
evening time frame.

Latest HRRR/RRFS combo indicate this being the last prominent
convective burst in the setup with ongoing rainfall producing
rates upwards of 0.5-0.75"/hr in the strongest cells as given by
radar estimates. This correlates to the potential for at least
isolated to widely scattered flash flood prospects, especially in
those slot canyon areas focused around Zion and Bryce Canyon
National Parks. Expectation is for additional rainfall of up to
1", locally higher with the final convective burst leading to
multi-day totals eclipsing 2" for many across the canyon areas
in-of NV/AZ.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4sGVzlQ2YS3aPAoqYoOuhOu9uOH-ZRH_nX0SKTrfawA-Ja6WiyvZHYjKdvH1CSqUaTDHY8eoEj0BgXSJ6aBIx9QDxsk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39331321 39191249 38581171 37651165 36951201
36341242 35841278 35661337 35941455 36541499
37341534 38271546 38831508 39251417
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 23 01:24:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230124
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-230715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1516
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
922 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Southern CO...Western and Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230122Z - 230715Z

SUMMARY...Bands of locally well-organized showers and
thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours across
portions of eastern AZ, southern CO and through western and
central NM. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely, and
locally significant impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows a
vigorous deep layer trough and associated closed low continuing to
pivot gradually across the Southwest U.S. This energy continues to
support bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms across areas of
eastern AZ, southern CO and the western third of NM as deep layer ascent/forcing associated with DPVA interacts with a corridor of
strong low to mid-level moisture convergence/transport and a nose
of modest instability.

Strong deep layer southerly flow is fostering 850/700 mb moisture
flux anomalies out ahead of a frontal zone of 3 to 5 standard
deviations above normal. MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to
1000 J/kg, and with the enhanced forcing aloft, there will likely
continue to be bands of rather well-organized convection and
especially with as much as 30 to 50 kts of effective bulk shear
fostering organized convective structures.

Some of the coldest cloud tops are over northwest NM right now
with radar confirming multiple organized bands of convection with
some occasional cell-training concerns. Rainfall rates with the
activity are locally as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour, and with the
cell-training concerns and potential for orographic enhancement
over areas of higher terrain, some additional rainfall amounts
over the next several hours may reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches.

This is consistent with the multi-model hires consensus, and these
rains are likely to foster additional areas of flash flooding.
Some locally significant impacts will be possible, and especially
near any burn scar locations, and within any slot/box canyons and
near the normally dry washes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!51eHQCy8asPU8AndtcVRtBc6y4HkRmfgcTqjRQdQsqHKUl7K02hFXzkOFOEjfc2KsRoX_PkKoBN87fRjUoM7LqkyoyI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38100678 38040551 37220489 35760542 34440622
33300674 32490722 32030794 31780871 31870939
32271009 33001029 34991002 36420928 37420835
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 23 01:54:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230154
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-230745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1517
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Northern AZ...Central and Southern UT...Southwest
CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230153Z - 230745Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may foster some
additional flash flooding concerns tonight.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W WV suite shows a strong upper
trough/closed low over the Southwest U.S. gradually advancing
eastward. Satellite imagery shows the energy taking on a negative
tilt, and this enhanced forcing/divergence aloft associated with
the height falls along with steepening mid-level lapse rates will
continue to favor additional areas of scattered showers and
thunderstorms going through the overnight hours.

MUCAPE values are locally still over 500 J/kg, and there are still
some areas of favorable low to mid-level moisture convergence
which coupled with orographic ascent over the higher terrain
should support the convective threat lingering along with locally
heavy rainfall rates.

The latest radar shows some of the stronger and more organized
cells over areas of far northern AZ and into southern UT. Drier
mid-level air arriving across the region will tend to mitigate the
rainfall rates a bit, but some rainfall rates with the stronger
storms may still reach as high as 1 to 1.5 inches/hour.

Localized cell-training will remain possible, and this may yield
some additional storm totals of up to 2 inches. This may result in
areas of additional flash flooding, with the slot-canyon regions
and burn scar locations most susceptible to seeing these potential
flash flooding impacts. Some of the normally dry washes may also
see potential for runoff concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6xVTbyXMnHczjWBYhFZ9j1XpBN0HcTB3RXJB5SlZ6UthoRs9ZzSr45WlNiLD2aP_XsgP_iC1j2XumALyXklYZ-L_yKk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40051093 39840951 39020827 37970784 37220854
36140944 34531021 34281115 34921215 36621266
37941269 39301222
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 23 19:34:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 231934
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240131-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1518
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Areas affected...much of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far
west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231931Z - 240131Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are migrating
quickly through the discussion area while producing areas of
0.2-0.4 inch/hr rain rates on a spotty basis. The coverage of
heavy rainfall should increase over sensitive ground conditions
through the afternoon, posing a flood/flash flood risk.

Discussion...Scattered convection was gradually increasing amid a warm-advection axis from southwestern NM into south-central CO
recently. The convection was embedded in appreciable mean flow,
resulting in 30-40 kt cell motions amid an environment
characterized by 0.5-1 inch PW and 1500 J/kg SBCAPE.
MRMS-estimated rain rates of 0.2-0.4 inch/hr were noted across
north-central NM. While these rates are relatively modest, areas
that are already experiencing impactful flooding in NM could
experience another quick 0.5 inch of rain in the short term. This
rainfall could exacerbate ongoing flood conditions.

Over time, continued surface heating and the approach of a
mid-level shortwave trough near the CA/AZ border region will
provide additional ascent/instability for more showers and
thunderstorms to form. The cells may repeat or locally train in a
few areas, resulting in additional rainfall totals of 0.5 inch or
more occurring in locally sensitive areas and burn scars.
High-resolution guidance is in agreement that this scenario will
persist for several hours - perhaps beyond 01Z/7p mountain time.
Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible during this
timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7T514p2x6LEf51OC-UetBuGGKf5asKC4nIfohQmmxYVx7Y-PvyoPndkMQS9PX4GcrnwaY-LW8FaC5FAzii0CEcwO6ZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38780644 38360503 37530418 36180394 34440435
33320499 32210532 31350573 31300604 31680644
31840668 31710815 31320824 31520897 33070886
35150873 36760860 37890857 38690786
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 24 00:48:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 240048
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1519
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Areas affected...Far Southern CO...Much of NM and Far Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240047Z - 240645Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
locally high rainfall rates are expected to result in areas of
flash flooding going into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
expanding and cooling convective tops across sizable areas of
central through southern NM and down into far western TX. The
activity continues to organize out ahead of a slow-moving frontal
zone and and a large deep layer trough that is only gradually
ejecting eastward across the Western U.S.

Modest ejecting shortwave energy lifting out of the base of the
upper trough will cross through central and southern NM over the
next few hours while interacting with the nose of moderate
instability characterized by MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.
This coupled with pockets of relatively strong low-level moisture
convergence and stronger kinematics aloft with as much as 30 to
40+ kts of effective bulk shear should tend to favor areas of
convective organization continuing through the evening hours.

PWs across the region are running as high as 1.5 to 2 standard
deviations above normal, and this combined with the instability
and cell-organization should tend to yield heavy rainfall rates
capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger
convective cores.

Some additional pockets of 2 to 2.5 inches of rain will be
possible where any brief cell-training occurs, and also near areas
of higher terrain. Some of the latest hires model CAMs target the
Sacramento Mountains over the next couple of hours with some of
these heavier totals. These rains in general across the region are
likely to foster areas of flash flooding through this evening, and
some of the more sensitive burn scar locations will be at
particular risk for flash flooding and debris flow activity. The
normally dry washes will also see an elevated risk for runoff
concerns as these relatively organized bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms cross the region.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!72PZt1TLfKjG8rMuIPOn-gIT5G3DDm5f4H9KE5RJrmD5iQVn7LApW6bnTVWp22Dh43zTjZKOTh7DGj5MYrTrWiA2-jA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37400437 37240351 36430311 35100323 32710362
31790394 30940493 30890647 31600737 32310770
33500773 34070765 34600753 35730712 36640636
37210534
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 24 14:24:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 241424
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-242022-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1520
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1023 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of New Mexico/Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241422Z - 242022Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of a quick
0.5 inch of rain could exacerbate ongoing flooding issues across
New Mexico through 2030Z/230p Mountain Daylight Time.

Discussion...Scattered convection was deepening/expanding in
coverage primarily across west-central portions of NM in the past
hour or so. The convection is being aided by ascent from an upper
low over the Lower CO River Valley along with steep mid-level
lapse rates (~7.5C/km). While storm motions are relatively quick
(around 30-40 knots), the orientation of convection, mid-level
instability, and 0.5-0.6 inch PW values are all favoring local
training and local rain rates of 0.5 inch/hr at times especially
across Cibola County.

With time, increasing insolation/destabilization will allow for
convection to expand in coverage, with additional areas of locally
heavy rainfall impacting sensitive ground conditions across the
state that are already experiencing significant flooding from
prior rainfall. Even a quick 0.5-1 inch of rainfall could worsen
ongoing impacts or create new instances of flash flooding. These
conditions are likely to continue through 2030Z this afternoon as
synoptic forcing favoring convective development will change very
little today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_WwyRmCkMCEbca3xy0TX1T1uDeyS3L-AB_05sqOSyeVEkcDHEpoox0vO--Ln7ZdbjG0OcTeQZ8qxMmnV0BQ-n--cg30$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38470753 38340579 37710502 36480467 35310471
34120505 33350560 32940679 33160785 33760879
36050894 38170879
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 24 20:31:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 242031
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250229-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1521
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and
far west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242029Z - 250229Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue across the
discussion area through at least 02Z/8p Mountain Daylight Time.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area -- especially from west-central NM into southern/southwestern
CO. Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered convection that
has organized into a couple of bands of training convection
especially across Cibola County and vicinity, with other scattered
cells moving quickly north at 30-40 knots. The cells remain in an
unstable environment, with cool air aloft atop warming surface
conditions contributing to approx. 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 0.5-0.6
inch PW, supporting locally heavy rainfall. Spots of rain rates
exceeding 0.5 inch/hr have been estimated per MRMS, and these
rates will continue to occur across areas that have been
excessively wet the past few days, with significant ongoing
riverine flooding in a few areas. Flood/flash flood potential
will continue for several more hours in these areas (through at
least 02Z).

Farther south and east, surface warming/destabilization has
enabled convection to develop and persist across central New
Mexico (northeast of ABQ), while additional towering cumulus has
been noted on visible satellite south of EPZ. Deep southerly flow
aloft will enable the convection to migrate northward, while
ascent associated with the upper low over Arizona and a subtle
upslope component to low-level flow across the NM Plains will
enable a gradually increase in convective coverage in these areas
through the remainder of the afternoon. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain
rates are expected especially near training cells. Flash flood
potential will increase in these areas (central/eastern NM
southward through far west Texas) through the afternoon and early
evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9cjTneZ5oYl0OCFlV1FKnE8eMziAgmzJTZ0C8RiqBcdC91PZODcvzER-FCLQflHyOoaTYu9RF9UEnB-PDAbBBL868D4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38380754 38170599 37150472 35440422 32640412
31390463 31170561 31540637 32110666 32870747
33390869 34470888 36290883 37510867
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 25 02:26:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 250226
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250825-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1522
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1025 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Areas affected...Much of NM...Far Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250225Z - 250825Z

SUMMARY...Bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
into the overnight hours. Additional areas of flash flooding will
continue to be possible, and especially around the more sensitive
burn scar and dry wash locations.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV satellite imagery shows a deep layer upper
trough and associated closed low over the broader Southwest U.S.
continuing to very slowly move off to the east. Stronger dynamics aloft/divergent flow ahead of these height falls interacting with
a channel of moist/unstable air lifting north across the southern
High Plains and into the southern Rockies will continue to
facilitate bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms going into the
overnight hours.

MUCAPE values this evening remain elevated ahead of a
quasi-stationary front with values across central/southern NM and
far western TX as high as high 1000 to 1500 J/kg. This instability
combined with rather strong low-level moisture convergence and
deeper layer shear should favor some persistence of relatively
well-organized bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates with the more organized convective cells will still
continue to be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour. Locally
slow cell-motions and some periodic cases of cell-training may
still foster some additional rainfall totals of 2 to 2.5 inches.
This is consistent with the latest multi-model hires CAM consensus.

These additional rains may foster some additional areas of flash
flooding over the next several hours. The greatest potential for
impacts will continue to be across the more sensitive burn scar
locations and around the normally dry washes, but in some cases
the streamflows are already elevated, so the additional rains will
only encourage a persistence of some ongoing runoff problems.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_gqUDx3pVGZe4aoOqiqjwgVJ1-2DNc3goBGB9xYdArRkPZDw3hECZGgSgatsFCnPUdSeqBebP99D4BBGMVQFvkbcQcM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37130470 36960383 36730347 35830310 34460316
32840344 31660381 30800440 30470525 30750608
31590679 33180696 34720666 36100653 36950579
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 25 20:00:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 252000
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-260158-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1523
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of New Mexico and far west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251958Z - 260158Z

Summary...Instances of flash flooding are possible through at
least 02Z/8p Mountain Daylight Time.

Discussion...Over the past half hour or so, convection has shown
an uptick in coverage and organization across central New Mexico.
The uptick was related to 1) surface-based destabilization due to
surface heating (around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and 2) ascent tied to a
mid-level shortwave trough entering western NM. Deep
south-southwesterly flow was oriented parallel to developing
convection, allowing for local training/repeating. Meanwhile,
cells just west of ABQ (Cibola/Bernadillo/Valencia Counties) were
moving across sensitive locales from recent excessive rainfall and
riverine flooding. A quick 0.5 inch of rainfall could exacerbate
any ongoing flooding concerns and prompt new flash flooding at
times as showers/storms drift northward through 02Z/8p.

Farther east (east of I-25), better availability of moisture
(0.5-1 inch PW values) support higher rain rates near training
convection. These rates could briefly approach local FFG
thresholds (around 0.75-1 inch/hr) and prompt flash flooding on an
isolated to scattered basis.

The overall regime supporting the aforementioned convective/flash
flood scenario will persist for several hours this afternoon as
low-level instability is maintained due to widespread areas of
sunshine. Additional training convection (and local 1 inch/hr
rain rates) are expected as far south as the TransPecos region and
far west Texas through 02Z this evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79LaJD0HIRVMlcXkhDMdG7ZfrMUn-TQWSa8LEoA0IAabq4ycBXaFSpSs_E1JCkbHq39eUV6EKYXJoy-KXKcuMin0nac$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36640593 36170385 35000304 33160323 31610361
31130412 31220515 31660599 32130663 33290724
34210808 34970829 36290772
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 26 02:16:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 260216
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-260815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1524
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NM...Western TX and TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260215Z - 260815Z

SUMMARY...Locally expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will maintain a threat for flash flooding over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR/WV satellite imagery suite shows
some cooling convective tops across areas of central and eastern
NM and parts of far western TX as a deep layer trough and
associated closed low ejects gradually eastward across the region.

Stronger mid/upper-level forcing/ascent overspreading the region
will be interacting with a rather unstable airmass pooled across
especially south-central/southeast NM and far western TX in
conjunction with strong 850/700 mb moisture flux that continues to
surge north across the southern High Plains. Early evening MLCAPE
values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg are in place which combined with 30
to 40 kts of effective bulk shear and the height falls should help
support some cell-organization over the next few hours, with some
additional expansion of convective activity expected this evening.

The instability and moisture transport (850/700 mb moisture flux
anomalies of +2 to +4 sigma) will support areas of high rainfall
rates, and the multi-model hires CAMs support some 1 to 2
inch/hour rainfall rates with the stronger and more focused
thunderstorms. Some some spotty additional storm total amounts of
2 to 3 inches is not out of the question tonight. The area of
greatest concern for these heavier totals will tend to be across
areas of east-central NM and northeastward into the TX Panhandle
where some cell-training concerns will exist.

These additional rains will maintain a threat for flash flooding
over the next several hours as a result. The normally dry washes
and burn scar locations will again be at greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6wlXq5Daz6SWwOMFf7KULt7s2GLn0nrwTsZS-VpaK5rcGE8uAq1CWQ7HO5xTpqm1i25Fw_Cj2o-MoqTqrQ55kPwYX1o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36580312 36430189 35660148 34620175 32940270
31750321 30900376 30600448 30510571 30930652
31260677 32260675 33760642 34960640 35880579
36410455
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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